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Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan's situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human-natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan's freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan's water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving

This correction notice addresses an error in the article titled "The Role of Reservoir Reoperation to Mitigate Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower and Environmental Water Demands." The correction adds information to the "Acknowledgments" section, specifically acknowledging the data provided by collections supported by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) in the Long-Term Ecological Research Program (Programa de Pesquisas Ecológicas de longa duração—PELD—Sítio 6 A planície de inundação do alto Rio Paraná). The authors also express gratitude to Professor Angelo Agostinho at Núcleo de Pesquisas em Limnologia, Ictiologia e Aquicultura/Universidade Estadual de Maringá (NUPELIA/UEM) for their contributions to the paper's development. The correction has been made only in this erratum to preserve the published version of record. [Extracted from the article]

This correction notice pertains to the article "Identifying Functional Flow Regimes and Fish Response for Multiple Reservoir Operating Solutions" by Ana Paula Dalcin, Guilherme Fernandes Marques, Anielly Galego de Oliveira, and Amaury Tilmant. The correction adds an acknowledgment section to the paper, acknowledging the data provided by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) and the contributions of Professor Angelo Agostinho at Núcleo de Pesquisas em Limnologia, Ictiologia e Aquicultura da Universidade Estadual de Maringá (NUPELIA/UEM). The correction has been made only in this erratum to preserve the published version of record. [Extracted from the article]

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan's situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human-natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan's freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan's water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of climate and land-use changes make the stationary assumption in hydrology obsolete. Moreover, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the future evolution of the Earth's climate and the extent of the alteration of flow regimes. In that context, it is crucial to assess the performance of a hydrologic model over a wide range of climates and their corresponding hydrologic conditions. We propose a calibration/validation protocol based on the differential split-sample test and numerous, contrasted, climate sequences identified through a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) classification. The proposed protocol is tested on the Senegal River in West Africa. Results show that when the time series of river discharges does not exhibit a clear climate trend, or when it has multiple change points, classical rupture tests are useless and HMM classification is a viable alternative as long as the climate sub-sequences are long enough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several alternatives have been proposed to shift the paradigms of water management under uncertainty from predictive to decision-centric. An often mentioned tool is the stress-test response surface; mapping system performance to a large sample of future hydro-climatic conditions. Dividing this exposure space between success and failure requires clear performance targets. In practice, however, stakeholders and decision-makers may be confronted with ambiguous objectives for which there are no clearly-defined (crisp) performance thresholds. Furthermore, response surfaces can be non-deterministic, as they do not fully capture all possible sources of hydro-climatic uncertainty. The challenge is thus to combine two different types of uncertainty: the irreducible uncertainty of the response itself relative to the variables that describe change, and the fuzziness of the performance target. We propose possibilistic surfaces to assess flood vulnerability with fuzzy performance thresholds. Three approaches are tested and compared on a un-gridded sample of the exposure space: (i) an aggregation of logistic regressions based on a-cuts combines the uncertainty of the response itself and the ambiguity of the target within a single possibility measure; (ii) an alternative approximates the response with a fuzzy analytical surface; and (iii) a convex delineation expresses the largest range of failure specific to a given management rule without probabilistic assumptions. To illustrate the proposed approaches, we use the flood-prone reservoir system of the Upper Saint-François River Basin in Canada as a case study. This study shows that ambiguity can be effectively be considered when generating a response surface and suggests how further research could build a possibilistic framework for hydro-climatic uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]