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Renewable energy future from energy coupling perspective is analysed by using global energy system model. Energy system with high renewable share is examined by four scenarios differentiated by biomass potential and electric vehicle market share. For comparison, business-as-usual scenario with emission fees but without non-renewable energy exclusion is used. In renewable scenarios non-renewable energy sources are phased out by high tax for year 2050 and letting model find cost-optimal path from 2010 to 2050. Results indicate that high renewable share poses major changes in each energy system sector, especially in power generation, industry and transportation. Substantial biomass utilisation is required, and increased electrification of energy system, especially in industrial sector, is necessary with high penetration of solar and wind power. Solar photovoltaics (PV) reaches globally 39–44% share in primary energy and 75% share in electricity generation since positive development of PV technology directs especially power generation in Asia to solar power. This requires high capacity of power-to-x technologies, which use electricity to produce synthetic fuels used in industrial and transport sectors, and electricity storages. Transition to renewable energy system mitigates CO2 emissions by 90% from 2010 to 2050, even though the issue of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions remain.

In 2019, the Nordic countries issued a common declaration to make the region carbon neutral. The declaration commits the countries to assess scenarios for how to achieve carbon neutrality, includin ...

The global temperature has increased over 1 degree since the pre-industrial period. Within the Barents Region, the increase has been ca. 2 degrees, and warming is expected to continue over the next century. Based on energy system analysis with the TIMES-VTT model on the one hand, and a literature review on the other, this study identifies how different economic sectors in the Barents Region are affected by changes in climate, and by the climate change mitigation and adaptation actions in the region. According to the results, the Barents region is likely to be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change despite high spatial variation in the impacts across the Barents region. Changing climate will have severe impacts especially on the more vulnerable sectors, societies, and local environments that have less possibility for adaptation. Political action is needed on national, regional, and municipal levels, but these levels should work together and complement each other. As adaptation is unavoidably required, it is important to highlight and suggest priority areas to national adaptation plans from the Barents region’s perspective. Moreover, collection and utilization of local knowledge in adaptation is crucial.

The global energy sector is expected to experience a gradual shift towards renewable energy sources in the coming decades. Climate change as well as energy security issues are the driving factors. In this process electricity is expected to gain importance to the cost of fuels. However, these new technologies are in many cases dependent on various metals. This analysis evaluates the need for special metals and compares it with known resources in order to find possible bottlenecks in the market. The time perspective of the analysis reaches to the year 2050. Following technologies have been selected for evaluation: solar electricity, wind power, fuel cells, batteries, electrolysis, hydrogen storages, electric cars and energy efficient lighting. The metals investigated belong either to the semiconductors, platinum group metals, rare earth metals or are other critical metals like silver and cobalt. The global transition of the energy sector is modelled with TIMES. According to the results the most critical market situation will be found in silver. Other elements, for which bottlenecks in the market seem possible, include tellurium, indium, dysprosium, lanthanum, cobalt, platinum and ruthenium. Renewable energy scenarios presented by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report seem partly unrealistic from the perspective of critical metals.

Baltic Energy Technology Scenarios 2018 (BENTE) is a scenario-based energy system analysis that explores the changes in the Baltic countries’ energy systems. What are the drivers and their impacts in the following decades? What would be required for the Baltic countries to meet their climate and energy targets in 2030, and what development would lead the Baltics towards a 2°C pathway? The report finds that the Baltic countries’ proposed renewable energy (RE) targets can be achieved using domestic resources. More renewable energy (electricity, heat and fuels) lets energy demanding sectors reduce GHG emissions and increase the RE share. However, the Baltic countries still do not reach their Effort Sharing Sector’s 2030 targets in the 4°C Scenario (4DS). Without policies to stimulate local renewable energy generation, the Baltics are likely to become large net importers of electricity. http://www.nordicenergy.org/project/bente/

We explore the pathways for mitigating climate change to at most 2 ℃ and below by imposing a representative target trajectory for radiative forcing and by range of different price trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the inertia in both the energy and climate systems, it appears questionable whether the objective of limiting global warming to well-below 2 ℃ is achievable without considerably overshooting the target within the current century. Exceeding the constraints of the estimated carbon budget also means that the initial overshooting must be later compensated by removing the excess emissions with negative emissions, which may become very difficult without substantial technological changes leading the world into a sustainable post-fossil economy. We outline an idealised technology pathway aligning with these viewpoints. The analysis highlights the necessity for immediate mitigation action for avoiding excessive overshooting, the key role of negative emissions, and the prospects of producing synthetic fuels, chemicals and materials from renewables and carbon dioxide for enabling the transition into the post-fossil economy.

In this paper, the possibilities and conditions for CCS applications in Finland are assessed. The study includes an overview of Finland's current climate and energy policy framework, mapping of large CO2 emission point sources and identification of possible CO2 transportation and storage alternatives. The future role of CCS in the Finnish energy system is further assessed with energy and emission scenarios created with a comprehensive model called TIMES-Nordic. There are several large CO2 emission sources in Finland that could be potential candidates for CCS, including steel works, power and heat generating plants, as well as oil refineries. In 2008, the 12 largest facilities in the Finnish emission trading registry accounted for 30% of the total CO2 emissions in Finland. Since the Finnish bedrock is not suitable for large-scale geological storage of CO2, captured CO2 would most likely have to be transported to the North Sea or Barents Sea for long-term storage. Most of the largest CO2 emitting facilities are located on the coast line of Finland, which facilitates transportation of CO2 by ship. The current Finnish climate and energy policy largely focuses on increasing the share of renewable energy and nuclear power in energy conversion, which leaves less room for CCS. The preliminary results from the scenario calculations indicate that the share of CO2 mitigation by CCS in Finland would be less than 10 Mt/a CO2 by 2050. However, Finland has also large, stationary CO2 emissions originating from biomass combustion in the pulp and paper industry. When assuming that biogenic CO2 emissions would be included into the emission trading system, the CCS potential rises up to 18 Mt/a CO2 by 2050.

The need for global and regional clean energy technology investments by 2050 are evaluated in climate policy scenarios with the bottom-up global ESAP TIAM energy system model. The impacts of the assumed regional CO 2 storage potentials as well as bioenergy and wind power potentials on investments are also investigated by sensitivity analysis. The results of the study indicate that the demand of both wind and bio energy as well as the utilization of CCS will strongly grow under strict climate policy scenarios. This can be seen both in terms of electrical capacity and annual capital costs. Although the falling fossil base electrical capacity will be relatively large until the mid of the century, its monetary value in term on annual capacity costs will be relatively low.

Concretizing the roadmaps outlined for moving to a low carbon economy by 2050 into detailed policies is a challenging task. Using ETSAP-TIAM as the central modeling tool, we have analyzed the implications of low carbon policies within Europe, with a special focus on the Finnish energy system. The main objective of the work was to identify cost-effective pathways for moving into a low carbon economy by 2050, by creating a set of different storylines for the future society and economy. The analysis involved also linking the energy system model to an applied general equilibrium model and a forest sector partial equilibrium model for estimating the impacts on the overall economy as well as land-use change and forestry. The scenario results indicate that Finland has good opportunities for achieving its low carbon targets by 2050 due to its large natural resources. The major uncertainties are related to the application of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and possible sustainability criteria for biomass.

Economical feasibility and potential of CO2 capture, storage and reuse in Finland was evaluated under the National Programme on Technology and Climate Change (Climtech). In Finland, no suitable geologic formations exist to sequester CO2. The nearest potential CO2 sequestration sites are offshore oil and gas fields in the North Sea and Barents Sea, which would mean a transport of 500–1000 km for captured CO2. With current knowledge, capturing CO2 near the storage sites and investing to new cross-border electricity transmission capacity seems the most feasible option for Finland. Storing CO2 as solid mineral carbonate could be an option in the future, since large resources of suitable silicates exist in Finland as natural minerals and as wastes of mining industry. The reuse potential of captured CO2 is less than 0.5% of the annual CO2 emissions.

The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustrate different technology pathways for cutting European greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. Focusing on selected countries (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden and UK), this paper first analyses climate and energy policy objectives and debates in the respective countries. It then compares EMF28 model results to the short-term projections of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) and the long-term transformation pathway given in the European Commission’s “Energy Roadmap 2050”. It concludes that there is sufficient agreement with the NREAPs and national policies to accept the model results as conceivable scenarios. The scenarios suggest that in the future a variety of different national energy mixes will continue to reflect the different resource bases and preferences of individual Member States. In order to ensure a cost-efficient transformation, it is important to improve coordination between Member State policies and those at EU level.

Possibilities to selectively oxidize NH3 in gasification gas to N2 have been investigated. Either O2 or NO or both oxidizers simultaneously were added to the hot synthetic gasification gas, which was led through a catalyst bed positioned in the electrically heated furnace. In the empty reactor and in the nonporous quartz bed, only a slight NH3 reduction was achieved. When dolomite or iron sinter was used as catalyst, the added NO formed more NH3. The reactions of H2 with NO in fact may limit the use of certain catalysts in gasification atmosphere. In the experiments with silicon carbide, the silicon carbide surface was oxidized to porous oxide layer, which catalyzed the selective oxidation of NH3 to N2 at the temperature of 700−800 °C. Even with O2 addition alone large NH3 reduction was achieved. At the same time, significant NO formation was, however, noticed. The reason for the different behavior of the porous silicon dioxide layer, and dolomite and iron sinter, is probably their different capability to adsorb various gas species on their surface.

Energy consumption in residential, commercial and transport sectors have been growing rapidly in the non-OECD Asian countries over the last decades, and the trend is expected to continue over the coming decades as well. However, the per capita projections for energy demand in these particular sectors often seem to be very low compared to the OECD average until 2050, and it is clear that the scenario assessments of final energy demands in these sectors include large uncertainties. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis have been carried out to study the impact of higher rates of energy demand growths in the non-OECD Asia on global mitigation costs. The long term energy and emission scenarios for China, India and South-East Asia have been contributed as a part of Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). The scenarios presented have been modeled by using a global TIMES-VTT energy system model, which is based on the IEA-ETSAP TIMES energy system modeling framework and the global ETSAP-TIAM model. Our scenario results indicate that the impacts of accelerated energy demand in the non-OECD Asia has a relatively small impact on the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas abatement. However, with the accelerated demand projections, the average per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD were decreased while China, India, and South-East Asia increased their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates that the costs of the greenhouse gas abatement would especially increase in the OECD region, if developing Asian countries increase their final energy consumption more rapidly than expected.

Organizations, which consider investment in or divestment of power production licences/capacity within the European Community, are exposed to the impacts of the European Union Emission allowance Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In this paper, the consequences of the EU ETS on investment decisions are explored in a country-specific setting in Finland. First, we review the general mechanisms through which the EU ETS influences size, timing and cashflows of an investment. Next, we discuss the projected changes in Finnish power producers’ investment environment and examine the financial impacts due to the EU ETS on a case investment decision, a hypothetical condensing power plant (250 MWe). The standard discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is extended to take into account the value of two real options: the option to wait and the option to alter operating scale. In a quantitative investment appraisal, the impact of emissions trading not only depends on the expected level of allowance prices, but also on their volatility and correlation with electricity and fuel prices. The case study shows that the uncertainty regarding the allocation of emission allowances is critical in a quantitative investment appraisal of fossil fuel-fired power plants.

Publisher Summary This chapter discusses the impact of the European Union (EU) emissions trading that is studied using a stochastic electricity price model for the Nordic electricity markets and the TIMES energy systems model to describe the development of the Finnish energy economy. The results of the models at various CO2 emission allowance price levels are used in the interpretation of the emissions trading impacts on energy and steel sector companies. The most important way to lower CO2 emissions in the energy sector in Finland is fuel changes in the direction of lower net carbon emissions. Energy companies whose production capacity is more flexible in respect of fuel type and production volumes have the best possibilities to adapt to the market changes caused by emissions trading. Growing industrial sectors, like the steel industry in Finland, cannot keep their emissions at the present level, or lower them, by changing process fuels or by improving energy efficiency. The country-specific emissions commitments and global markets of energy or emission-intensive products do not fit well together.

In this study the ability of various acid catalysts to selectively oxidize NH3 to N2 was examined in synthetic gasification gas, when O2 and NO simultaneously or O2 or NO alone were added to the gas. If no oxidizers were added to the gas, all catalysts were inert and no reduction of NH3 took place. With aluminum oxide 95% NH3 reduction took place, when O2 and NO were added simultaneously to the gas at 400 °C. Also aluminum silicates and montmorillonite were effective. Generally, NH3 conversion was always decreasing when the temperature was increasing. At low temperature, N2O formation was detected, which was retarded at high temperature. Only a small amount of HCN was formed, when temperature was above 600 °C. Adding NO alone to the gas did not reduce the NH3 content of the gas. With O2 addition alone, 50−60% NH3 reduction was achieved at a very narrow temperature window of 600−700 °C.

The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) study systematically explores the energy system transition required to meet the European goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050. The 80% scenario is compared to a reference case that aims to achieve a 40% GHG reduction target. The paper investigates mitigation strategies beyond 2020 and the interplay between different decarbonization options. The models present different technology pathways for the decarbonization of Europe, but a common finding across the scenarios and models is the prominent role of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. In particular, wind power and bioenergy increase considerably beyond current deployment levels. Up to 2030, the transformation strategies are similar across all models and for both levels of emission reduction. However, mitigation becomes more challenging after 2040. With some exceptions, our analysis agrees with the main findings of the “Energy Roadmap 2050” presented by the European Commission.

During gasification, fuel nitrogen is liberated mainly as ammonia, hydrogen cyanide, molecular nitrogen, or as heavy aromatic compounds, while a smaller part of the nitrogen is retained in solid char. Independent of the fuel gasified, more NH3 is formed than other nitrogenous compounds in most gasifiers. The NH3 content in the product gas seems to be dependent mainly on the nitrogen content of the fuel. The measured NH3 concentrations have varied between 150 and 10000 ppm, the lowest being for wood, which usually has a nitrogen content less than 1%, and the highest for peat and coal, which have nitrogen content varying from 0.5 to 3.0%. The fraction of the fuel nitrogen that is converted to NH3 is probably affected by several parameters, including gasification temperature, heating rate, pressure, residence time of fuel in the reactor, as well as the devolatilization rate of fuel and the nitrogen functionality in fuel structure. No detailed structural information on the nitrogen functionality of wood, peat or coal is available because no reliable methods for quantitative analysis of nitrogen groups in these complex mixtures of organic molecules have been developed. However, it is known that nitrogen in living organic tissues is mainly in proteins. In peat, nitrogen is bound in amino acids, peptides, proteins, amino sugars and probably in heterocyclic structures. The spectroscopic studies of coal indicate that most of the nitrogen is in pyrrolic and pyridinic form but also unidentified quarternary-type nitrogen has been found. The pyrolysis studies of model compounds have shown that pyridine and pyrrole release nitrogen as HCN. Proteins and aminoacids may also release NH3. The pyrolysis experiments of coal have shown that the measured NH3/HCN ratio is dependent on the heating rate. In rapid pyrolysis experiments more HCN than NH3 has been formed but in low heating rate conditions, the situation has been the reverse. It has been hypothesized that in coal pyrolysis, part of the NH3 is formed from HCN and hydrogen through secondary reactions. In fixed bed and fluidized bed reactors, longer gas-char contact time exists than in the entrained bed reactor, which may result in greater NH3/HCN ratio in the former types of reactors. The increase in temperature or decrease in pressure and residence time of fuel in the reactor will also decrease the extent of secondary reactions of char and gases, which could result in lower NH3 formation. In the gasification of peat, more NH3 is usually formed than in gasification of hard coals, which is probably partly due to direct liberation of NH3 from amino acids. In peat and wood gasification, most of the fuel nitrogen is liberated during the pyrolysis stage. During coal gasification at low temperatures (< 1200 K), most of the nitrogen is retained in char after pyrolysis and released during the char gasification stage. This means that the reactions of char nitrogen can contribute to the total NH3 conversion.

Flash-pyrolysis oil is projected as the most competitive liquid fuel from biomass. The use of pyrolysis oil as a diesel-power-plant fuel is studied. Pyrolysis-oil fuel characteristics are analysed, the oil is employed as fuel in a test diesel engine, and the economics of the system are analysed. The diesel-power-plant concept has several advantages, especially in small-scale production. The concept has several technical uncertainties, which are addressed in a research project.

Hiilidioksidin talteenottoa ja varastointia (CCS) pidetään kansainvälisesti yhtenä merkittävimmistä tulevaisuuden hiilidioksidipäästöjen vähentämiskeinoista. Myös Suomessa kiinnostus CCS:ään on herännyt.

This paper examines how European seaports aim to improve the sustainability of their operations. This examination is approached with a literature search on the sustainability targets of ports, especially in Europe, and by reviewing the webpages of the ten largest European container ports. Based on this literature search and webpage review, limiting carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions seems to be a high priority in these ports. Limitation of CO2 emissions is further investigated in the light of the Port of Helsinki’s aim to become carbon neutral by 2035. Our analysis indicates that ports have a major role to play in the maritime transport sector’s efforts to improve sustainability. However, this will require clear targets as the timeframe is long. Otherwise, efforts risk being focused on actions that merely push the problem around, like moving CO2 emissions elsewhere or increasing other pollutants when CO2 is cut. Besides concentrating on the organization and operations of ports, balancing subsidies for cleaner vessels with extra charges for more polluting ones could help motivate shipping companies to purchase new, cleaner vessels or acquire technological solutions to mitigate the harmful effects of existing ones.