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An operational synoptic-scale sea ice forecasting system for the Southern Ocean, namely the Southern Ocean Ice Prediction System (SOIPS), has been developed to support ship navigation in the Antarctic sea ice zone. Practical application of the SOIPS forecasts had been implemented for the 38th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition for the first time. The SOIPS is configured on an Antarctic regional sea ice–ocean–ice shelf coupled model and an ensemble-based localized error subspace transform Kalman filter data assimilation model. Daily near-real-time satellite sea ice concentration observations are assimilated into the SOIPS to update sea ice concentration and thickness in the 12 ensemble members of the model state. By evaluating the SOIPS performance in forecasting sea ice metrics in a complete melt–freeze cycle from 1 October 2021 to 30 September 2022, this study shows that the SOIPS can provide reliable Antarctic sea ice forecasts. In comparison with non-assimilated EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF) data, annual mean root mean square errors in the sea ice concentration forecasts at a lead time of up to 168 h are lower than 0.19, and the integrated ice edge errors in the sea ice forecasts in most freezing months at lead times of 24 and 72 h maintain around 0.5×106 km 2 and below 1.0×106 km 2 , respectively. With respect to the scarce Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) observations, the mean absolute errors in the sea ice thickness forecasts at a lead time of 24 h are lower than 0.3 m, which is in the range of the ICESat-2 uncertainties. Specifically, the SOIPS has the ability to forecast sea ice drift, in both magnitude and direction. The derived sea ice convergence rate forecasts have great potential for supporting ship navigation on a fine local scale. The comparison between the persistence forecasts and the SOIPS forecasts with and without data assimilation further shows that both model physics and the data assimilation scheme play important roles in producing reliable sea ice forecasts in the Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landfast ice (LFI) plays a crucial role for both the climate and the ecosystem of the Antarctic coastal regions. We investigate the snow and LFI mass balance in Prydz Bay using observations from 11 sea ice mass balance buoys (IMBs). The buoys were deployed offshore from the Chinese Zhongshan Station (ZS) and Australian Davis Station (DS), with the measurements covering the ice seasons of 2009–2010, 2013–2016, and 2018. The observed annual maximum ice thickness and snow depth were 1.59 ± 0.17 and 0.11–0.76 m off ZS and 1.64 ± 0.08 and 0.11–0.38 m off DS, respectively. Early in the ice growth season (May–September), the LFI basal growth rate near DS (0.6 ± 0.2 cmd-1) was larger than that around ZS (0.5 ± 0.2 cmd-1). This is attributed to cooler air temperature (AT) and lower oceanic heat flux at that time in the DS region. Air temperature anomalies were more important in regulating the LFI growth rate at that time because of thinner sea ice having a weaker thermal inertia relative to thick ice in later seasons. Interannual and local spatial variabilities for the seasonality of LFI mass balance identified at ZS are larger than at DS due to local differences in topography and katabatic wind regime. Snow ice contributed up to 27 % of the LFI total ice thickness at the offshore site close to ground icebergs off ZS because of the substantial snow accumulation. Offshore from ZS, the supercooled water was observed at the sites close to the Dålk Glacier from July to October, which reduced the oceanic heat flux and promoted the LFI growth. During late austral spring and summer, the increased oceanic heat flux led to a reduction of LFI growth at all investigated sites. The variability of LFI properties across the study domain prevailed at interannual timescales, over any trend during the recent decades. Based on the results derived from this study, we argue that an increased understanding of snow (on LFI) processes, local atmospheric and oceanic conditions, as well as coastal morphology and bathymetry, are required to improve the Antarctic LFI modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surface spectral albedo was measured over coastal landfast sea ice in Prydz Bay (off Zhongshan Station), East Antarctica from 5 October to 26 November of 2016. The mean albedo decreased from late-spring to early-summer, mainly responding to the change in surface conditions from dry (phase I) to wet (phase II). The evolution of the albedo was strongly influenced by the surface conditions, with alternation of frequent snowfall events and katabatic wind that induce snow blowing at the surface. The two phases and day-to-day albedo variability were more pronounced in the near-infrared albedo wavelengths than in the visible ones, as the near-infrared photons are more sensitive to snow metamorphism, and to changes in the uppermost millimeters and water content of the surface. The albedo diurnal cycle during clear sky conditions was asymmetric with respect to noon, decreasing from morning to evening over full and patchy snow cover, and decreasing more rapidly in the morning over bare ice. We conclude that snow and ice metamorphism and surface melting dominated over the solar elevation angle dependency in shaping the albedo evolution. However, we realize that more detailed surface observations are needed to clarify and quantify the role of the various surface processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface radiative fluxes over landfast sea ice off Zhongshan station have been measured in austral spring for five springs between 2010 and 2015. Downward and upward solar radiation vary diurnally with maximum amplitudes of 473 and 290 W m−2, respectively. The maximum and minimum long-wave radiation values of the mean diurnal cycle are 218 and 210 W m−2 for downward radiation, 277 and 259 W m−2 for upward radiation and 125 and −52 W m−2 for net radiation. The albedo has a U-shaped mean diurnal cycle with a minimum of 0.64 at noon. Sea ice thickness is in the growth phase for most spring days, but can be disturbed by synoptic processes. The surface temperature largely determines the occurrence of ice melting. Surface downward and upward long-wave radiation show synoptic oscillations with a 5–8 day period and intraseasonal variability with a 12–45 day period. The amplitudes of the diurnal, synoptic and intraseasonal variability show some differences during the five austral springs considered here. The intraseasonal and synoptic variability of downward and upward long-wave radiation are associated with the variability of cloud cover and surface temperature induced by the atmospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]