1. An Electronic Health Record Model for Predicting Risk of Hepatic Fibrosis in Primary Care Patients
- Author
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Thrift, Aaron P, Nguyen Wenker, Theresa H, Godwin, Kyler, Balakrishnan, Maya, Duong, Hao T, Loomba, Rohit, Kanwal, Fasiha, and El-Serag, Hashem B
- Subjects
Biomedical and Clinical Sciences ,Clinical Sciences ,Diabetes ,Digestive Diseases ,Patient Safety ,Obesity ,Prevention ,Clinical Research ,Nutrition ,Health Services ,Liver Disease ,Chronic Liver Disease and Cirrhosis ,2.1 Biological and endogenous factors ,Oral and gastrointestinal ,Metabolic and endocrine ,Good Health and Well Being ,Humans ,Female ,Male ,Middle Aged ,Electronic Health Records ,Primary Health Care ,Risk Assessment ,Liver Cirrhosis ,Risk Factors ,Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease ,Adult ,Aged ,Elasticity Imaging Techniques ,Predictive Value of Tests ,Body Mass Index ,Fatty liver ,Veterans ,Liver cancer ,Gastroenterology & Hepatology ,Clinical sciences - Abstract
BackgroundOne challenge for primary care providers caring for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is to identify those at the highest risk for clinically significant liver disease.AimTo derive a risk stratification tool using variables from structured electronic health record (EHR) data for use in populations which are disproportionately affected with obesity and diabetes.MethodsWe used data from 344 participants who underwent Fibroscan examination to measure liver fat and liver stiffness measurement [LSM]. Using two approaches, multivariable logistic regression and random forest classification, we assessed risk factors for any hepatic fibrosis (LSM > 7 kPa) and significant hepatic fibrosis (> 8 kPa). Possible predictors included data from the EHR for age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, FIB-4, body mass index (BMI), LDL, HDL, and triglycerides.ResultsOf 344 patients (56.4% women), 34 had any hepatic fibrosis, and 15 significant hepatic fibrosis. Three variables (BMI, FIB-4, diabetes) were identified from both approaches. When we used variable cut-offs defined by Youden's index, the final model predicting any hepatic fibrosis had an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67-0.84), NPV of 91.5% and PPV of 40.0%. The final model with variable categories based on standard clinical thresholds (i.e., BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2; FIB-4 ≥ 1.45) had lower discriminatory ability (AUC 0.65), but higher PPV (50.0%) and similar NPV (91.3%). We observed similar findings for predicting significant hepatic fibrosis.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that standard thresholds for clinical risk factors/biomarkers may need to be modified for greater discriminatory ability among populations with high prevalence of obesity and diabetes.
- Published
- 2024