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This work is a collaboration between BioRISC (the Biosecurity Research Initiative at St Catharine’s College, Cambridge), Conservation Evidence based in the Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. It was created by documenting our experience of options, consulting guidance, contacting people working in different countries to explore the range of options and crowd-sourcing ideas through social media. We welcome suggestions for options missed (especially those implemented outside of the UK), innovations for novel options or means of improving existing options. Please contact biorisc@caths.cam.ac.uk. You can also view the list of options on the BioRISC website (https://covid-19.biorisc.com/) or customise the list yourself using this app we developed (https://alecchristie888.shinyapps.io/Covid_19_options/).

We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biodiversity conservation. Issues are either novel within the biological conservation sector or could cause a substantial step-change in impact, either globally or regionally. Our global panel of 26 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues that we believe represent the highest priorities for tracking and action. Many of the issues we identified, including the impact of satellite megaconstellations, and the use of long-distance wireless energy transfer, have elements of threats and emerging opportunities. The recent state-sponsored application to commence deep-sea mining represents a significant step-change in impact. We hope that this horizon scan will increase research and policy attention on the highlighted issues.

In a context of both long-term climatic changes and short-term climatic shocks, temporal dynamics profoundly influence ecosystems and societies. In low income contexts in the Tropics, where both exposure and vulnerability to climatic fluctuations is high, the frequency, duration, and trends in these fluctuations are important determinants of socio-ecological resilience. In this paper, the dynamics of six diverse socio-ecological systems (SES) across the Tropics – ranging from agricultural and horticultural systems in Africa and Oceania to managed forests in South East Asia and coastal systems in South America – are examined in relation to the 2015–16 El Niño, and the longer context of climatic variability in which this short-term ‘event’ occurred. In each case, details of the socio-ecological characteristics of the systems and the climate phenomena experienced during the El Niño event are described and reflections on the observed impacts of, and responses to it are presented. Drawing on these cases, we argue that SES resilience (or lack of) is, in part, a product of both long-term historical trends, as well as short-term shocks within this history. Political and economic lock-ins and dependencies, and the memory and social learning that originates from past experience, all contribute to contemporary system resilience. We propose that the experiences of climate shocks can provide a window of insight into future ecosystem responses and, when combined with historical perspectives and learning from multiple contexts and cases, can be an important foundation for efforts to build appropriate long-term resilience strategies to mediate impacts of changing and uncertain climates.

A consequence of increased nutrient levels within an estuarine ecosystem is the development of green macroalgal blooms or ‘mats’. These mats can cover extensive areas of estuarine intertidal habitats and have biomass >1 kg m-2 (wet weight). One of the key metrics for assessment of the ecological condition status of estuarine features in Europe is the extent and biomass of macroalgal mats. The aim of this research is to establish whether the development of green macroalgal mats affects feeding relationships between invertebrate assemblages and overwintering migratory wading birds in Poole Harbour - a temperate estuarine ecosystem on the south coast of England. Poole Harbour is designated for its populations of overwintering migratory wading birds. As such, any decline in wading bird numbers as a result of nutrient enrichment affecting their food supply or altering feeding behaviour, would result in sanctions under current legislation. This field research consisted of three main objectives: 1) Measuring the biomass and extent of the macroalgal mat within Poole Harbour. 2) Analysing any changes to the benthic invertebrate community under varying macroalgal mat densities. 3) Observing and recording the behaviour and feeding success of key wading bird species; in particular how they responded to changes in prey availability and varying levels of macroalgal mat coverage. Samples of macroalgal mat were taken monthly or bi-monthly on mudflats at four locations around the harbour over two years and wet weight biomass was recorded. Wading bird invertebrate prey availability was measured using benthic core samples taken at upper, mid, and lower shore levels at three key sites. Invertebrate size- classes were recorded and converted into available energy (kJ m-2) according to the preferred diet of each of the five wading bird species studied. Observations of wading bird behaviour were recorded over two overwintering periods (September – March). Digital video recordings were taken of different wading bird species’ feeding behaviour and success on varying levels of macroalgal mat coverage. Coverage by macroalgal mats was high (>50%) with dense patches persisting into autumn. Biomass of algae reached 1 kg m-2 at each of the sites during both years with two sites exceeding 2 kg m-2 (wet weight) in 2013; although that level was not maintained throughout the summer growth period. The invertebrate community was transformed under increased algal biomass within an increase in abundance (m-2) of smaller less energy-dense species when algae reached ~800 g m-2 (wet weight). Variation in overall invertebrate community assemblage between benthic samples was best explained by algae biomass; either singularly or in combination with % organic matter. This pattern was repeated with an initial increase in available energy (kJ m-2) within each bird species preferred prey under lower macroalgal mat biomass (~800 g m-2 wet weight) followed by a decline as algae biomass increased. During autumn, when large areas of macroalgal mat were still visible, foraging behaviour by some wading bird species varied under different levels of algae coverage. Some wading bird species’ behaviour also varied in winter on areas which had been covered by algae during the previous growth season. The current macroalgal mat biomass threshold of concern under SSSI Conditions Assessments is 2 kg m-2 (wet weight). Results suggest that the impact from macroalgal mats in Poole Harbour is evident at a biomass lower than 2 kg m-2 (wet weight); supporting a lowering of this threshold to 1 kg m-2. An increase in abundance of smaller invertebrates has resulted in a decline in energy available for the wading birds’ preferred diet. Observations suggest that wading birds may be adapting to these changes with some species appearing to be feeding on smaller, lower-quality prey (i.e. smaller worms/bivalves) and other species feeding on prey found on the surface of the macroalgal mat. Adaptations are site-specific in response to conditions within individual bays but consistent between shore levels within each bay.

We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological conservation in the future. From a list of 97 topics, our global panel of 25 scientists and practitioners identified the top 15 issues that we believe society may urgently need to address. These issues are either novel in the biological conservation sector or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change in impact at global or regional level. Six issues, such as coral reef deoxygenation and changes in polar coastal productivity, affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven relate to human and ecosystem-level responses to climate change. Identification of potential forthcoming issues for biological conservation may enable increased preparedness by researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers.