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Abstract Background Lyme disease is the commonest vector-borne zoonosis in the temperate world, and an emerging infectious disease in Canada due to expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis. Studies suggest that climate change will accelerate Lyme disease emergence by enhancing climatic suitability for I. scapularis. Risk maps will help to meet the public health challenge of Lyme disease by allowing targeting of surveillance and intervention activities. Results A risk map for possible Lyme endemicity was created using a simple risk algorithm for occurrence of I. scapularis populations. The algorithm was calculated for each census sub-division in central and eastern Canada from interpolated output of a temperature-driven simulation model of I. scapularis populations and an index of tick immigration. The latter was calculated from estimates of tick dispersion distances by migratory birds and recent knowledge of the current geographic range of endemic I. scapularis populations. The index of tick immigration closely predicted passive surveillance data on I. scapularis occurrence, and the risk algorithm was a significant predictor of the occurrence of I. scapularis populations in a prospective field study. Risk maps for I. scapularis occurrence in Canada under future projected climate (in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) were produced using temperature output from the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model 2 with greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcing 'A2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Conclusion We have prepared risk maps for the occurrence of I. scapularis in eastern and central Canada under current and future projected climate. Validation of the risk maps provides some confidence that they provide a useful first step in predicting the occurrence of I. scapularis populations, and directing public health objectives in minimizing risk from Lyme disease. Further field studies are needed, however, to continue validation and refinement of the risk maps.

Summary: Drought predisposes forest trees to bark beetle‐induced mortality, but the physiological mechanisms remain unclear. While drought‐induced water and carbon limitations have been implicated in defensive failure and tree susceptibility, evidence demonstrating how these factors interact is scarce.We withheld water from mature, potted Pinus edulis and subsequently applied a double‐stem girdle to inhibit carbohydrate transport from the crown and roots. Within this isolated segment we then elicited a defense response by inoculating trees with a bark beetle‐fungal symbiont (Ophiostoma sp.). We quantified local mono‐ and sesquiterpenes (MST), nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC), and pressure potential of the inner bark.Both drought‐stressed and watered trees had similar NSC concentrations just before inoculation and depleted NSC similarly following inoculation, yet MST induction (i.e. increased concentration and altered composition) was constrained only in drought‐stressed trees. Thus, NSC consumption was largely unrelated to de novo MST synthesis. Instead, stoichiometric calculations show that induction originated largely from stored resin. Watered trees experiencing higher pressure potentials consistently induced higher MST concentrations.We demonstrate the importance of preformed resin toward an induced MST response in a semi‐arid conifer where drought‐constraints on defense occurred through biophysical limitations (i.e. reduced turgor hindering resin transport) rather than through substrate limitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Stomatal closure during drought inhibits carbon uptake and may reduce a tree's defensive capacity. Limited carbon availability during drought may increase a tree's mortality risk, particularly if drought constrains trees' capacity to rapidly produce defenses during biotic attack.We parameterized a new model of conifer defense using physiological data on carbon reserves and chemical defenses before and after a simulated bark beetle attack in mature Pinus edulis under experimental drought. Attack was simulated using inoculations with a consistent bluestain fungus (Ophiostoma sp.) of Ips confusus, the main bark beetle colonizing this tree, to induce a defensive response.Trees with more carbon reserves produced more defenses but measured phloem carbon reserves only accounted for c. 23% of the induced defensive response. Our model predicted universal mortality if local reserves alone supported defense production, suggesting substantial remobilization and transport of stored resin or carbon reserves to the inoculation site.Our results show that de novo terpene synthesis represents only a fraction of the total measured phloem terpenes in P. edulis following fungal inoculation. Without direct attribution of phloem terpene concentrations to available carbon, many studies may be overestimating the scale and importance of de novo terpene synthesis in a tree's induced defense response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How plants use the carbon they gain from photosynthesis remains a key area of study among plant ecologists. Although numerous theories have been presented throughout the years, the field lacks a clear null model. To fill this gap, I have developed the first null model, or neutral theory, of plant carbon allocation using probability theory, plant biochemistry and graph theory at the level of a leaf. Neutral theories have been used to establish a null hypothesis in molecular evolution and community assembly to describe how much of an ecological phenomenon can be described by chance alone. Here, the aim of a neutral theory of plant carbon allocation is to ask: how is carbon partitioned between sinks if one assumes plants do not prioritize certain sinks over others? Using the biochemical network of plant carbon metabolism, I show that, if allocation was strictly random, carbon is more likely to be allocated to storage, defense, respiration and finally growth. This 'neutral hierarchy' suggests that a sink's biochemical distance from photosynthesis plays an important role in carbon allocation patterns, highlighting the potentially adaptive role of this biochemical network for plant survival in variable environments. A brief simulation underscores that our ability to measure the carbon allocation from photosynthesis to a given sink is unreliable due to simple probabilistic rules. While neutral theory may not explain all patterns of carbon allocation, its utility is in the minimal assumptions and role as a null model against which future data should be tested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Shifts in the age or turnover time of non‐structural carbohydrates (NSC) may underlie changes in tree growth under long‐term increases in drought stress associated with climate change. But NSC responses to drought are challenging to quantify, due in part to large NSC stores in trees and subsequently long response times of NSC to climate variation.We measured NSC age (Δ14C) along with a suite of ecophysiological metrics in Pinus edulis trees experiencing either extreme short‐term drought (−90% ambient precipitation plot, 2020–2021) or a decade of severe drought (−45% plot, 2010–2021). We tested the hypothesis that carbon starvation – consumption exceeding synthesis and storage – increases the age of sapwood NSC.One year of extreme drought had no impact on NSC pool size or age, despite significant reductions in predawn water potential, photosynthetic rates/capacity, and twig and needle growth. By contrast, long‐term drought halved the age of the sapwood NSC pool, coupled with reductions in sapwood starch concentrations (−75%), basal area increment (−39%), and bole respiration rates (−28%).Our results suggest carbon starvation takes time, as tree carbon reserves appear resilient to extreme disturbance in the short term. However, after a decade of drought, trees apparently consumed old stored NSC to support metabolism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Disruption of photosynthesis and carbon transport due to damage to the tree crown and stem cambial cells, respectively, can cause tree mortality. It has recently been proposed that fire‐induced dysfunction of xylem plays an important role in tree mortality. Here, we simultaneously tested the impact of a lethal fire dose on nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) and xylem hydraulics in Pinus ponderosa saplings.Saplings were burned with a known lethal fire dose. Nonstructural carbohydrates were assessed in needles, main stems, roots and whole plants, and xylem hydraulic conductivity was measured in the main stems up to 29 d postfire.Photosynthesis and whole plant NSCs declined postfire. Additionally, all burned saplings showed 100% phloem/cambium necrosis, and roots of burned saplings had reduced NSCs compared to unburned and defoliated saplings. We further show that, contrary to patterns observed with NSCs, water transport was unchanged by fire and there was no evidence of xylem deformation in saplings that experienced a lethal dose of heat from fire.We conclude that phloem and cambium mortality, and not hydraulic failure, were probably the causes of death in these saplings. These findings advance our understanding of the physiological response to fire‐induced injuries in conifer trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lyme disease is the commonest vector-borne zoonosis in the temperate world, and an emerging infectious disease in Canada due to expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis. Studies suggest that climate change will accelerate Lyme disease emergence by enhancing climatic suitability for I. scapularis. Risk maps will help to meet the public health challenge of Lyme disease by allowing targeting of surveillance and intervention activities. Results: A risk map for possible Lyme endemicity was created using a simple risk algorithm for occurrence of I. scapularis populations. The algorithm was calculated for each census sub-division in central and eastern Canada from interpolated output of a temperature-driven simulation model of I. scapularis populations and an index of tick immigration. The latter was calculated from estimates of tick dispersion distances by migratory birds and recent knowledge of the current geographic range of endemic I. scapularis populations. The index of tick immigration closely predicted passive surveillance data on I. scapularis occurrence, and the risk algorithm was a significant predictor of the occurrence of I. scapularis populations in a prospective field study. Risk maps for I. scapularis occurrence in Canada under future projected climate (in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) were produced using temperature output from the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model 2 with greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcing 'A2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Conclusion: We have prepared risk maps for the occurrence of I. scapularis in eastern and central Canada under current and future projected climate. Validation of the risk maps provides some confidence that they provide a useful first step in predicting the occurrence of I. scapularis populations, and directing public health objectives in minimizing risk from Lyme disease. Further field studies are needed, however, to continue validation and refinement of the risk maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Escherichia coli O157:H7 (EC O157) is an important cause of foodborne disease. Cattle are reservoirs for the bacteria and are implicated in transmission to humans. Prevalence data in prefeedlot calves are limited. With the use of sensitive methods, a cohort of weaned beef calves (n = 408) was sampled before and after preconditioning to estimate fecal point prevalence and describe changes in EC O157 fecal shedding. EC O157 isolates were confirmed and characterized by PCR and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. Calves from 29 cow-calf farms were commingled at three preconditioning sites and placed on a transition ration containing oxytetracycline (200 g/ton) for 45 days. Initial animal-level fecal point prevalence was 2.5% (95% confidence interval, 1 to 5) with a herd-level prevalence of 17.2% (95% confidence interval, 6 to 36). Point prevalence following the preconditioning feeding period was 0%. An unexpected finding in our study was EC O157 isolates that were Shiga toxin-deficient. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis subtypes of EC O157 were unique in epidemiologically unlinked herds, except one herd that had two unique subtypes. We expected, but observed, neither increased fecal shedding in the cohort nor horizontal transmission of unique EC O157 subtypes. The absence of fecal shedding following the 45-day feeding period might be attributable to seasonal influences, inhibitory concentrations of oxytetracycline in the transition ration, or transient colonization that ended before sampling. EC O157 is apparently widely dispersed at low prevalence in U.S. prefeedlot, weaned calves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]