27 results on '"Thomas Theobald"'
Search Results
2. The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes
- Author
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Sebastian Dullien, Sabine Stephan, and Thomas Theobald
- Subjects
Economic theory. Demography ,HB1-3840 ,Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform ,HN1-995 - Abstract
Abstract International trade conflicts continue to simmer in times of the coronavirus crisis. Most recently, in mid-May, the US government tightened export restrictions for suppliers to the Chinese technology company Huawei. Against the background of the dramatic slump in consumer demand for automobiles, US President Donald Trump might revive his protectionist idea of tariffs on cars and car parts from the EU, escalating the transatlantic trade conflict. Economic policy simulations show that such an escalation has the potential to dampen the economic recovery in Germany after the pandemic shock. Fiscal rules limit the ability to counterbalance the macroeconomic impact of a trade war, putting Germany potentially at a relative disadvantage in this conflict.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Agent-based risk management – a regulatory approach to financial markets
- Author
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Thomas Theobald
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. EUROPEAN FISCAL RULES AS A LIABILITY IN THE TRANSATLANTIC TRADE CONFLICT: LESSONS FROM NiGEM SIMULATIONS
- Author
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Thomas Theobald, Sabine Stephan, and Sebastian Dullien
- Subjects
Trade war ,Shock (economics) ,Liability ,Economics ,media_common.cataloged_instance ,International economics ,European union ,General Economics, Econometrics and Finance ,Administration (government) ,Fiscal policy ,media_common - Abstract
Under the Trump administration, a transatlantic trade conflict has been escalating step by step. First, it was about tariffs on steel and aluminium, then about retaliation for the French digital tax, which is suspended until the end of the year. Most recently, the US administration threatened the European Union with tariffs on cars and car parts because of Canadian seafood being subject to lower import duties. As simulations with NiGEM show, a further escalation of the transatlantic trade conflict has the potential to slow down economic growth significantly in the countries involved. This is a considerable risk given the fact that the countries have to cope with the enormous negative effects of the pandemic shock. Furthermore, the damage caused by the trade conflict depends on the extent to which the affected countries use fiscal policy to stabilise their economies.
- Published
- 2020
5. Transatlantischer Handelskonflikt und die deutsche Wirtschaft: Auf die Dauer kommt es an
- Author
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Thomas Theobald, Sebastian Dullien, and Sabine Stephan
- Subjects
050208 finance ,Analysen und Berichte ,05 social sciences ,E17 ,F17 ,HB1-3840 ,Political science ,0502 economics and business ,ddc:330 ,Economic theory. Demography ,Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous) ,050207 economics ,F13 ,Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform ,Humanities ,HN1-995 - Abstract
ZusammenfassungAuch in der Corona-Krise schwelen internationale Handelskonflikte weiter. So verschärfte die US-Regierung Mitte Mai 2020, mitten in der Corona-Krise, noch einmal die Exportbeschränkungen für Zulieferer des chinesischen Telekommunikationsausrüsters Huawei. Angesichts des dramatischen Nachfrageeinbruchs bei den Automobilherstellern kann deshalb auch nicht ausgeschlossen werden, dass Donald Trump seine protektionistische Idee, die Einfuhr von Autos und Autoteilen aus der EU mit Strafzöllen zu belegen, wiederbeleben und damit auch den transatlantischen Handelskonflikt neu anfachen könnte. Simulationen zeigen, dass ein solcher Konflikt insbesondere bei einer Ausweitung der Zölle auf weitere Sektoren und einer längeren Dauer der deutschen Wirtschaft spürbaren Schaden zufügen könnte.
- Published
- 2020
6. Why Current EU Proposals for Corona-Related Financial Aid Cannot Replace Coronabonds
- Author
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Sebastian Dullien, Thomas Theobald, Silke Tober, and Andrew Watt
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050208 finance ,Economic policy ,Forum ,05 social sciences ,Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) ,HB1-3840 ,Debt restructuring ,Political science ,0502 economics and business ,European integration ,ddc:330 ,Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous) ,Economic theory. Demography ,050207 economics ,Sovereign debt ,Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform ,HN1-995 ,Social policy - Abstract
With public debt-to-GDP levels now set to surpass post-war records and Italy’s ratio approaching levels reached in Greece on the eve of the country’s debt restructuring in early 2012, fears of a return of the sovereign debt crisis have emerged.
- Published
- 2020
7. Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs
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Thomas Theobald and Silke Tober
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Money market ,050208 finance ,Yield (finance) ,Bond ,05 social sciences ,Monetary economics ,Private sector ,Spillover effect ,Sovereignty ,0502 economics and business ,Economics ,050207 economics ,Proxy (statistics) ,Credit risk - Abstract
We regress long-term private-sector borrowing rates on a money market rate, a term premium and credit risk. As a contribution to the current debate about European safe assets, our interest is in quantifying the impact of euro area sovereign bond spreads on private-sector lending by employing it as a proxy for private-sector credit risk. Panel estimates show significant, albeit rather small long-run effects. Another finding is large cross-country heterogeneity. Using linear country-specific estimates, we find the effect to be significant in only some countries, but the size of the maximum effect in these countries exceeds the average one more than three-fold. Furthermore, for one country, we find an asymmetrical effect with positive spread changes having greater impact on private-sector borrowing costs than negative ones. Substantial heterogeneity of the spillover effect between euro area countries indicates the presence of financial valuation effects based not only on economic fundamentals. This, in turn, implies that spillovers may entail contagion costs. Overall, our results suggest that these costs are considerable in the euro area and will remain so until an effective form of European safe assets is created.
- Published
- 2020
8. The effect of borrower-specific loan-to-value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility: An agent-based analysis
- Author
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Ruben Tarne, Dirk Bezemer, Thomas Theobald, and Research programme GEM
- Subjects
Wealth inequality ,Economics and Econometrics ,Control and Optimization ,Applied Mathematics ,Household indebtedness ,Macroprudential regulation ,Housing market ,Agent-based modelling - Abstract
This paper analyses the effects of borrower-specific credit constraints on macroeconomic outcomes in an agent-based housing market model, calibrated using UK household survey data. We apply different Loan-to-Value (LTV) caps for different types of agents: first-time buyers, second and subsequent buyers, and buy-to-let investors. We then analyse the outcomes on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility. The households’ consumption function, in the model, incorporates a wealth term and income-dependent marginal propensities to consume. These characteristics cause the consumption-to-income ratios to move procyclically with the housing cycle. In line with the empirical literature, LTV caps in the model are overall effective while generating (distributional) side effects. Depending on the specification, we find that borrower-specific LTV caps affect household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility differently, mediated by changes in the housing market transaction patterns of the model. Restricting investors’ access to credit leads to substantial reductions in debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility. Limiting first-time and subsequent buyers produces only weak effects on household debt and consumption volatility, while limiting first-time buyers even increases wealth inequality. Hence, our findings emphasise the importance of applying borrower-specific macroprudential policies and, specifically, support a policy approach of primarily restraining buy-to-let investors’ access to credit.
- Published
- 2022
9. Inequality in Germany: A Macroeconomic Perspective
- Author
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Till van Treeck, Thomas Theobald, Jan Behringer, and Nikolaus Kowall
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Macroeconomics ,Sociology and Political Science ,Inequality ,Politikwissenschaft ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Research methodology ,05 social sciences ,Perspective (graphical) ,050601 international relations ,language.human_language ,0506 political science ,German ,Political Science and International Relations ,050602 political science & public administration ,language ,Economics ,media_common - Abstract
Household surveys such as the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) tend to underestimate income and wealth inequality. The research methodology developed by Thomas Piketty et al. therefore analyses o...
- Published
- 2019
10. Inequality in Germany: A Macroeconomic Perspective
- Author
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Jan Behringer, Nikolaus Kowall, Thomas Theobald, and Till van Treeck
- Published
- 2021
11. The Effect of Borrower-Specific Loan-to-Valuepolicies on Household Debt, Wealth Inequality and Consumption Volatility: An Agent-Basedanalysis
- Author
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Dirk Bezemer, Ruben Tarne, and Thomas Theobald
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Consumption (economics) ,Macroprudential regulation ,Inequality ,Consumption function ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Debt ,Economics ,Monetary economics ,Volatility (finance) ,Loan-to-value ratio ,Household debt ,media_common - Abstract
This paper analyses the effects of borrower-specific credit constraints on macroeconomic outcomes in an agent-based housing market model, calibrated using U.K. household survey data. We apply different Loan-to-Value (LTV) caps for different types of agents: first-time-buyers, second and subsequent buyers, and buy-to-let investors. We then analyse the outcomes on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility. The households’ consumption function, in the model, incorporates a wealth term and income-dependent marginal propensities to consume. These characteristics cause the consumption-to-income ratios to move procyclically with the housing cycle. In line with the empirical literature, LTV caps in the model are overall effective while generating (distributional) side effects. Depending on the specification, we find that borrower-specific LTV caps affect household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility differently, mediated by changes in the housing market transaction patterns of the model. Restricting investors’ access to credit leads to substantial reductions in debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility. Limiting first-time and subsequent buyers produces only weak effects on household debt and consumption volatility, while limiting first-time buyers even increases wealth inequality. Hence, our findings emphasise the importance of applying borrower-specific macroprudential policies and, specifically, support a policy approach of primarily restraining buy-to-let investors’ access to credit.
- Published
- 2021
12. Wie hängen Lohnhöhe und Beschäftigung zusammen?
- Author
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Rudolf Zwiener, Camille Logeay, and Thomas Theobald
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020209 energy ,Political science ,E27 ,0502 economics and business ,05 social sciences ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,ddc:330 ,Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous) ,02 engineering and technology ,E24 ,050207 economics ,Humanities ,C54 - Abstract
Der Zusammenhang zwischen Lohn- und Beschäftigungsentwicklung ist eine theoretisch umstrittene Frage. Die verschiedenen Denkschulen stimmen nicht nur bezüglich der Größenordnungen der Effekte nicht überein, sondern ziehen zum Teil auch unterschiedliche Wirkungskanäle heran und betrachten unterschiedliche Zeiträume. Daher wird sogenannten evidenzbasierten Studien besondere Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt, um die Frage zu beantworten, wie sich eine Lohnerhöhung letztendlich auf die Beschäftigung auswirkt. Das makroökonometrische Mehr-Länder-Modell NiGEM wurde in den letzten Jahrzehnten in der wirtschaftspolitischen Beratung in diesem Kontext vielfach genutzt, auch von der Deutschen Bundesbank und dem Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (SVR). Dieser Beitrag knüpft an die Bedeutung des NiGEM-Modells in der wirtschaftspolitischen Beratung an und prüft, inwieweit der dort modellierte Zusammenhang zwischen Lohnhöhe und Beschäftigung empirisch valide ist. The restrictions of the NiGEM initial model and their relevance over the last decade and a half have produced oft-cited economic policy advice that can hardly be justified empirically: Wage increases will result in significant employment losses. But with statistically validated modifications, the results and the economic policy statements of the simulations by the German Council of Economic Experts and the Deutsche Bundesbank find that a higher wage path now stimulates domestic demand more strongly because the set employment losses do not materialise. There are no noticeable losses in growth and employment for the German economy.
- Published
- 2020
13. Income distribution and current account imbalances
- Author
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Christian A. Belabed, Till van Treeck, and Thomas Theobald
- Subjects
Net national income ,Economics and Econometrics ,Labour economics ,Total personal income ,05 social sciences ,Gross income ,jel:D33 ,jel:E21 ,jel:F32 ,jel:D31 ,jel:F41 ,Adjusted gross income ,jel:E25 ,0506 political science ,Income distribution ,Permanent income hypothesis ,0502 economics and business ,050602 political science & public administration ,Economics ,Soziologie, Sozialwissenschaften ,Household income ,050207 economics ,Income elasticity of demand ,income distribution, relatve income hypothesis, household debt, stock flow consistency, current account, institutions - Abstract
We develop a three-country, stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model to study the effects of changes in both personal and functional income distribution on national current account balances. Each country has a household sector and a non-household (corporate) sector. The household sector is divided into income deciles, and consumer demand is characterized by upward-looking status comparisons following the relative income hypothesis of consumption. The strength of consumption emulation depends on country-specific institutions. The model is calibrated for the United States, Germany and China. Simulations suggest that a substantial part of the increase in household debt and the decrease in the current account in the United States since the early 1980s can be explained by the interplay of rising (top-end) household income inequality and institutions. On the other hand, the weak domestic demand and increasing current account balances of Germany and China since the mid-1990s are strongly related to shifts in the functional income distribution at the expense of the household sector.
- Published
- 2018
14. Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model
- Author
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Christian R. Proaño and Thomas Theobald
- Subjects
media_common.quotation_subject ,Probit ,Recession ,Multivariate probit model ,Economic indicator ,Probit model ,Statistics ,Econometrics ,Economics ,Multinomial probit ,Yield curve ,Business and International Management ,Volatility (finance) ,media_common - Abstract
In this paper we propose a composite indicator for real-time recession forecasting based on alternative dynamic probit models. For this purpose, we use a large set of monthly macroeconomic and financial leading indicators from the German and US economies. Alternative dynamic probit regressions are specified through automated general-to-specific and specific-to-general lag selection procedures on the basis of slightly different initial sets. The resulting recession probability forecasts are then combined in order to decrease the volatility of the forecast errors and increase their forecasting accuracy. This procedure features not only good in-sample forecast statistics, but also good out-of-sample performances, as is illustrated using a real-time evaluation exercise.
- Published
- 2014
15. A study on the comparative values placed on consultations by pet owners and primary care veterinary surgeons in the UK
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Thomas Theobald and Mark Dunning
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medicine.medical_specialty ,business.industry ,Family medicine ,medicine ,Primary care ,business - Published
- 2015
16. Income inequality and Germany’s current account surplus
- Author
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Patrick Grüning, Thomas Theobald, and Till van Treeck
- Subjects
jel:E17 ,jel:F32 ,jel:D31 ,income inequality, functional income distribution, household debt, financial system, current account - Abstract
Germany entered the euro with a current account deficit but over the entire past decade has run large and persistent current account surpluses. Besides joining the common currency, the increase of Germany’s current account since the late 1990s has been accompanied by strong shifts in the personal and, in particular, the functional income distribution. In this paper, we argue that income inequality should always be analyzed with respect to both the personal and the functional distribution of income. We present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which a current account surplus arises as an endogenous result of a decrease in the share of household income in national income. On the one hand, this result complements existing literature where current account deficits result from rising personal income inequality. On the other hand, we find that current account imbalances will be more pronounced when accompanied by changes in the financial system. Accordingly, if we link Germany’s accession to the European monetary union to lower exchange rate costs for German bank lending, the current account surplus becomes larger.
- Published
- 2015
17. Im Aufschwung - Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2015/2016
- Author
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Gustav A. Horn, Sebastian Gechert, Alexander Herzog-Stein, Peter Hohlfeld, Fabian Lindner, Ansgar Rannenberg, Sabine Stephan, Thomas Theobald, and Silke Tober
- Abstract
Das globale Wirtschaftswachstum wird in diesem Jahr ähnlich stark ausfallen wie im vergangenen Jahr und im kommenden Jahr an Tempo gewinnen. In den USA wird die konjunkturelle Dynamik spürbar beschleunigen. Auch in den meisten Schwellenländern gewinnt die Konjunktur wieder an Fahrt. Im Euroraum dürfte es, bei weiterhin verlangsamter fiskalischer Konsolidierung, zu einer Erholung kommen. Hinzu kommen die anregenden Effekte des Ölpreisverfalls und die Abwertung des Euro. Das Wachstum im Euroraum außerhalb Deutschlands beträgt im Jahr 2015 1,1 % (2016: 1,9 %). In Deutschland wird sich die konjunkturelle Dynamik im Prognosezeitraum verstärken. Dabei wird die Binnennachfrage für ein stabiles Wachstum sorgen. Insbesondere werden die privaten Konsumausgaben bei abermals deutlich steigenden Realeinkommen sowie der erneut positiven Arbeitsmarktentwicklung den gewichtigsten Beitrag leisten. Aber auch die Investitionen werden von zunehmender Bedeutung sein. Der Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts wird im Jahresdurchschnitt 2015 2,2 % betragen (2016: 2,2 %). Die Arbeitslosenquote beträgt 6,4 % (2016: 6,2 %), und die Verbraucherpreise steigen nur um 0,2 % (2016: 1,5 %). Oberste wirtschaftspolitische Priorität sollten alle Maßnahmen haben, die dazu beitragen, die Krise des Euroraums zu überwinden. Neben der weiterhin expansiven Geldpolitik sollte die Fiskalpolitik eine aktivere Rolle übernehmen.
- Published
- 2015
18. Inlandsnachfrage stabilisiert den Aufschwung
- Author
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Jan Behringer, Alexander Herzog-Stein, Peter Hohlfeld, Fabian Lindner, Katja Rietzler, Thomas Theobald, and Silke Tober
- Abstract
Das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft fiel in den ersten Monaten 2015 nur verhalten aus. Im Prognosezeitraum wird die Weltkonjunktur wieder an Tempo gewinnen. So wird in den USA die konjunkturelle Dynamik spürbar zunehmen. Auch in den meisten Schwellenländern wird die Konjunktur wieder an Fahrt aufnehmen. Im Euroraum dürfte sich der im Laufe des vergangenen Jahres begonnene Stabilisierungsprozess fortsetzen. Maßgeblich hierfür ist der gelockerte Restriktionskurs der Fiskalpolitik. Die dynamischere Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft ermöglicht der Wirtschaft des Euroraums nun einen exportinduzierten Erholungskurs. Das Wachstum im Euroraum außerhalb Deutschlands beträgt im Jahr 2015 1,4 % (2016: 2,1 %).In Deutschland bleibt die konjunkturelle Dynamik im Prognosezeitraum hoch. Die Zunahme der Exporte wird sich infolge der anziehenden Weltkonjunktur beschleunigen. Dies strahlt auch auf die Investitionstätigkeit aus. Treiber des Wachstums bleiben die privaten Konsumausgaben bei abermals deutlich steigenden Realeinkommen sowie der erneut positiven Arbeitsmarktentwicklung sein. Der Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts wird im Jahresdurchschnitt 2015 2,0 % betragen (2016: 2,2 %). Die Arbeitslosenquote beträgt 6,4 % (2016: 6,2 %) und die Verbraucherpreise steigen nur verhalten um 0,5 % (2016: 1,5 %).
- Published
- 2015
19. Einkommens- und Vermögensverteilung in Deutschland: Eine makroökonomische Sicht
- Author
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Jan Behringer, Thomas Theobald, and Till van Treeck
- Abstract
Freiwillige Haushaltbefragungen wie das Sozioökonomische Panel (SOEP) unterschätzen tendenziell die Ungleichheit von Einkommen und Vermögen. Die von Thomas Piketty und anderen etablierte Forschungsrichtung wertet daher zur Bestimmung der Ungleichheit am oberen Ende der Verteilung amtliche Steuerstatistiken aus. Da in Deutschland seit 2009 Kapitaleinkommensteuern nicht mehr personenbezogen erfasst werden und es überdies keine Vermögenssteuer gibt, gestaltet sich die Erfassung hoher Einkommen und Vermögen jedoch als schwierig. Darüber hinaus führt die Piketty-Methode auch deswegen zu einer Unterschätzung des Anstiegs der Ungleichheit in Deutschland seit der Jahrtausendwende, weil ein großer Teil der steigenden Gewinne von den Unternehmen einbehalten und damit nicht als Haushaltseinkommen erfasst wurde. Trotz dieser Probleme können aussagekräftige Kennziffern der Ungleichheit in Deutschland unter Zuhilfenahme vorhandener Umfragedaten sowie Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Rechenwerke entwickelt werden. Im Report wird zudem argumentiert, dass eine Reduzierung der Ungleichheit in Deutschland könnte zum Abbau der hohen Exportüberschüsse und damit zu mehr makroökonomischer Stabilität beitragen würde.
- Published
- 2014
20. Konjunktur nimmt allmählich Fahrt auf - Prognose Update: Deutsche Konjunktur zur Jahreswende 2014/2015
- Author
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Alexander Herzog-Stein, Peter Hohlfeld, Ansgar Rannenberg, Katja Rietzler, Thomas Theobald, and Silke Tober
- Abstract
Das globale Wirtschaftswachstum fiel in diesem Jahr nur sehr verhalten aus, wird aber im Prognosezeitraum wieder an Tempo gewinnen. In den USA wird die konjunkturelle Dynamik merklich anziehen. Auch in den meisten Schwellenländern gewinnt die Konjunktur wieder an Fahrt. Im Euroraum dürfte es zu einer Belebung kommen. So wird das Tempo der fiskalischen Konsolidierung sich weiterhin verlangsamen. Hinzu kommen die anregenden Effekte des niedrigen Ölpreises und die Abwertung des Euro. Das Wachstum im Euroraum außerhalb Deutschlands beträgt im Jahr 2015 1,4 % (2014: 0,5 %). In Deutschland wird sich die konjunkturelle Dynamik im nächsten Jahr verstärken. Die Zunahme der Exporte wird sich infolge der anziehenden Weltkonjunktur beschleunigen. Dies strahlt auch auf die Investitionstätigkeit aus. Treiber des Wachstums werden die privaten Konsumausgaben bei abermals deutlich steigenden Realeinkommen sowie der erneut positiven Arbeitsmarktentwicklung sein. Der Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts wird im Jahresdurchschnitt 2015 1,6 % (2014: 1,5 %) betragen. Die Arbeitslosenquote beträgt 6,5 % (2014: 6,7 %) und die Verbraucherpreise steigen nur verhalten um 1,2 % (2014: 0,9 %).
- Published
- 2014
21. Income and Wealth Distributionin Germany: A Macro-Economic Perspective
- Author
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Jan Behringer, Thomas Theobald, and Till van Treeck
- Abstract
Household surveys like the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) notoriously underestimate the degree of income and wealth inequality at the upper end of the distribution. A new approach developed by Thomas Piketty and co-authors therefore analyses tax return data in an attempt at better measuring top incomes and wealth. In the case of Germany, however, this approach faces a number of difficulties. Since 2009, capital incomes are subject to a flat rate withholding tax, levied at source. Moreover, Germany abandoned the wealth tax in 1997. This makes it difficult to measure the distribution of wealth and capital incomes. Moreover, at the conceptual level, top household income shares underestimate the rise of inequality in Germany because much of the shift in income distribution since the early 2000s has taken the form of rising corporate profits, which in large part have been retained by firms and hence are not counted as household income. Despite these problems, measures of income and wealth inequality can be developed by combining information from household surveys and national accounts data. The article also argues that reducing inequality would contribute to reducing Germany's export surplus and thereby enhance macroeconomic stability.
- Published
- 2014
22. Der gefährdete Aufschwung - Prognose der Wirtschafzlichen Entwicklung 2014/2015
- Author
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Gustav A. Horn, Alexander Herzog-Stein, Peter Hohlfeld, Fabian Lindner, Ansgar Rannenberg, Katja Rietzler, Sabine Stephan, Thomas Theobald, and Silke Tober
- Abstract
Die Weltkonjunktur wird im Prognosezeitraum auf einer regional breit angelegten Basis an Tempo gewinnen. So wird insbesondere das Wachstum in den USA merklich anziehen. Aber auch die Wirtschaft im Euroraum ohne Deutschland wird nach einer anfänglich nur verhaltenen Dynamik im Verlauf des nächsten Jahres verstärkt expandieren. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) im Euroraum ohne Deutschland wird im Jahresdurchschnitt 2014 nahezu stagnieren (0,2%) und 2015 um 1,3 % wachsen.In Deutschland dürfte sich die Konjunktur wieder beleben und im weiteren Verlauf des Prognosezeitraums an Dynamik gewinnen. Dabei nehmen insbesondere die privaten Konsumausgaben spürbar zu und auch die Investitionen erholen sich kräftig. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wächst 2014 um 1,5 % und 2015 um 1,9 %. Die Verbraucherpreise nehmen nur sehr verhalten zu (2014: 1,1 % und 2015: 1,3 %). Die Arbeitslosenquote beträgt in diesem Jahr 6,7 % und im nächsten Jahr 6,6 %. Um die fragile Erholung im Euroraum abzusichern, sollte die Geldpolitik weiterhin expansiv ausgerichtet bleiben und der restriktive Kurs der Finanzpolitik im Euroraum als Ganzes dringend gelockert werden.
- Published
- 2014
23. Einkommensverteilung, Finanzialisierung und makroökonomische Ungleichgewichte
- Author
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Jan Behringer, Christian A. Belabed, Till van Treeck, and Thomas Theobald
- Subjects
Welfare economics ,jel:E21 ,jel:F32 ,Current account ,jel:F41 ,Income distribution, financialisation, current account imbalances ,current account imbalances ,Economic inequality ,Economy ,Income distribution ,Economics ,ddc:330 ,Soziologie, Sozialwissenschaften ,F32 ,financialisation ,F41 ,E21 - Abstract
We discuss the link between rising income inequality, financialisation and macroeconomic imbalances during the period before the global financial and economic crisis starting in 2007. We present case studies for the United States and Germany as well as the results of model-based simulations and panel econometric estimations. A large part of the widening global current account imbalances prior to the crisis can be explained by country-specific trends in the personal and functional income distribution. Der Artikel diskutiert den Zusammenhang von zunehmender Einkommensungleichheit, Finanzialisierung und makroökonomischen Ungleichgewichten im Vorfeld der weltweiten Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise ab 2007. Neben den Fallbeispielen USA und Deutschland werden Ergebnisse aus modellgestützten Simulationen und panelökonometrischen Schätzungen präsentiert. Ein signifikanter Teil der globalen außenwirtschaftlichen Ungleichgewichte im Vorfeld der Krise lässt sich durch länderspezifische Entwicklungen in der funktionalen und personellen Einkommensverteilung erklären.
- Published
- 2013
24. Predicting German Recessions with a Composite Real-Time Dynamic Probit Indicator
- Author
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Christian R. Proaño and Thomas Theobald
- Subjects
jel:C53 ,Dynamic probit models, out-of-sample forecasting, yield curve, real-time econometrics ,jel:C25 - Published
- 2012
25. Combining Recession Probability Forecasts from a Dynamic Probit Indicator
- Author
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Thomas Theobald
- Subjects
Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Abstract
This paper analyzes the real-time out-of-sample performance of three kinds of combination schemes. While for each the set of underlying forecasts is slightly modified, all of them are real-time recession probability forecasts generated by a dynamic probit indicator. Among the considered aggregations the most efficient turns out to be one that neglects the correlations between the forecast errors.
- Published
- 2012
26. Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis
- Author
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Thomas Theobald
- Subjects
jel:C53 ,Business Cycle, Leading Indicators, Macroeconomic Forecasting, Markov Switching ,jel:C24 ,jel:E37 - Abstract
This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show how to take advantage of combining single MS forecasts and of changing the number of regimes on the real-time path, where both leads to a higher forecast accuracy. Changing the number of regimes implies a distinction for recessions representing either a normal or an extraordinary one, which particularly means to determine as early as possible the point in time, from which the last recession structurally exceeded the previous ones. In fact it turns out that the Markov Switching model can signal quite early whether a conventional recession happens or whether an economic downturn will be more substantial.
- Published
- 2012
27. Verfahren der konjunkturellen Wendepunktbestimmung unter Berücksichtigung der Echtzeit-Problematik
- Author
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Daniel Detzer, Christian R. Proaño, Katja Rietzler, Sven Schreiber, Thomas Theobald, and Sabine Stephan
- Abstract
Forecasting business-cycle turning points under real-time conditions One of the greatest challenges in business cycle research is the timely and reliable identification of cyclical turning points.The data availability in real time constitutes a fundamental problem:First there is a publication lag of several months for some of the indicators concerning the real economy, and secondly those indicators are subject to substantial revisions even afterwards. The IMK undertook a systematic analysis of the business-cycle turning point detection problem in real time for Germany, applying and comparing four different econometric model classes. The employed methods recognize turning points two to four months ahead of official statistics in real time, for the evaluation sample of 2007 through 2010. A (nonlinear) dynamic probit model and a (linear) so-called subset VAR model seem to be especially well suited for this task. Based on our research results we conclude that it is advisable for the detection of turning points to combine many indicators.
- Published
- 2012
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