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Abstract Background Circulatory failure frequently occurs after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and is part of post-cardiac arrest syndrome (PCAS). The aim of this study was to investigate circulatory disturbances in PCAS by assessing the circulatory trajectory during treatment in the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods This was a prospective single-center observational cohort study of patients after OHCA. Circulation was continuously and invasively monitored from the time of admission through the following five days. Every hour, patients were classified into one of three predefined circulatory states, yielding a longitudinal sequence of states for each patient. We used sequence analysis to describe the overall circulatory development and to identify clusters of patients with similar circulatory trajectories. We used ordered logistic regression to identify predictors for cluster membership. Results Among 71 patients admitted to the ICU after OHCA during the study period, 50 were included in the study. The overall circulatory development after OHCA was two-phased. Low cardiac output (CO) and high systemic vascular resistance (SVR) characterized the initial phase, whereas high CO and low SVR characterized the later phase. Most patients were stabilized with respect to circulatory state within 72 h after cardiac arrest. We identified four clusters of circulatory trajectories. Initial shockable cardiac rhythm was associated with a favorable circulatory trajectory, whereas low base excess at admission was associated with an unfavorable circulatory trajectory. Conclusion Circulatory failure after OHCA exhibits time-dependent characteristics. We identified four distinct circulatory trajectories and their characteristics. These findings may guide clinical support for circulatory failure after OHCA. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02648061

In the high altitude Hindukush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH) mountains, the complex weather system, inaccessible terrain and sparse measurements make the elevation-distributed precipitation and temperature among the most significant unknowns. The elevation-distributed snow and glacier dynamics in the HKH region are also little known, leading to serious concerns about the current and future water availability and management. The Hunza Basin in the HKH region is a scarcely monitored, and snow- and glacier-dominated part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). The current study investigates the elevation-distributed hydrological regime in the Hunza Basin. The Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD) model, with a degree day and an energy balance approach for simulating glacial melt, is forced with precipitation derived from two global datasets (ERA5-Land and JRA-55). The mean annual precipitation for 1997–2010 is estimated as 947 and 1,322 mm by ERA5-Land and JRA-55, respectively. The elevation-distributed precipitation estimates showed that the basin receives more precipitation at lower elevations. The daily river flow is well simulated, with KGE ranging between 0.84 and 0.88 and NSE between 0.80 and 0.82. The flow regime in the basin is dominated by glacier melt (45%–48%), followed by snowmelt (30%–34%) and rainfall (21%–23%). The simulated snow cover area (SCA) is in good agreement with the MODIS satellite-derived SCA. The elevation-distributed glacier melt simulation suggested that the glacial melt is highest at the lower elevations, with a maximum in the elevation 3,218–3,755 masl (14%–21% of total melt). The findings improve the understanding of the local hydrology by providing helpful information about the elevation-distributed meltwater contributions, water balance and hydro-climatic regimes. The simulation showed that the DDD model reproduces the hydrological processes satisfactorily for such a data-scarce basin.

Abstract The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) heavily depends on its frozen water resources, and an accelerated melt due to the projected climate change may significantly alter future water availability. The future hydro-climatic regime and water availability of the Hunza basin (a sub-basin of UIB) were analysed using the newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections. A data and parameter parsimonious precipitation-runoff model, the Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD) model, was used with energy balance-based subroutines for snowmelt, glacier melt and evapotranspiration. The DDD model was set up for baseline (1991–2010), mid-century (2041–2060) and end-century (2081–2100) climates projections from two global circulation models (GCM), namely EC-Earth3 and MPI-ESM. The projections indicate a substantial increase in temperature (1.1–8.6 °C) and precipitation (12–32%) throughout the twenty-first century. The simulations show the future flow increase between 23–126% and the future glacier melt increase between 30–265%, depending on the scenarios and GCMs used. Moreover, the simulations suggest an increasing glacier melt contribution from all elevations with a significant increase from the higher elevations. The findings provide a basis for planning and modifying reservoir operation strategies with respect to hydropower generation, irrigation withdrawals, flood control, and drought management.

Abstract Background Earlier breeding is one of the strongest responses to global change in birds and is a key factor determining reproductive success. In most studies of climate effects, the focus has been on large-scale environmental indices or temperature averaged over large geographical areas, neglecting that animals are affected by the local conditions in their home ranges. In riverine ecosystems, climate change is altering the flow regime, in addition to changes resulting from the increasing demand for renewable and clean hydropower. Together with increasing temperatures, this can lead to shifts in the time window available for successful breeding of birds associated with the riverine habitat. Here, we investigated specifically how the environmental conditions at the territory level influence timing of breeding in a passerine bird with an aquatic lifestyle, the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus. We relate daily river discharge and other important hydrological parameters, to a long-term dataset of breeding phenology (1978–2015) in a natural river system. Results Dippers bred earlier when winter river discharge and groundwater levels in the weeks prior to breeding were high, and when there was little snow in the catchment area. Breeding was also earlier at lower altitudes, although the effect dramatically declined over the period. This suggests that territories at higher altitudes had more open water in winter later in the study period, which permitted early breeding also here. Unexpectedly, the largest effect inducing earlier breeding time was territory river discharge during the winter months and not immediately prior to breeding. The territory river discharge also increased during the study period. Conclusions The observed earlier breeding can thus be interpreted as a response to climate change. Measuring environmental variation at the scale of the territory thus provides detailed information about the interactions between organisms and the abiotic environment.

Floods are one of the major climate-related hazards and cause casualties and substantial damage. Accurate and timely flood forecasting and design flood estimation are important to protect lives and property. The Distance Distribution Dynamic (DDD) is a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model which is being used for flood forecasting at the Norwegian flood forecasting service. The model, like many other models, underestimates floods in many cases. To improve the flood peak prediction, we propose a dynamic river network method into the model. The method is applied for 15 catchments in Norway and tested on 91 flood peaks. The performance of DDD in terms of KGE and BIAS is identical with and without dynamic river network, but the relative error (RE) and mean absolute relative error (MARE) of the simulated flood peaks are improved significantly with the method. The 0.75 and 0.25 quantiles of the RE are reduced from 41% to 23% and from 22% to 1%, respectively. The MARE is reduced from 32.9% to 15.7%. The study results also show that the critical support area is smaller in steep and bare mountain catchments than flat and forested catchments.

Ecological and evolutionary effects of environmental variation on wild populations are of particular interest in a changing world. Large-scale environmental indices are classically used as environmental explanatory variables to study climate change effects on wild populations. However, these measures neglect the fact that individuals are affected by the local conditions in their home ranges. Freshwater ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change induced alterations in precipitation and discharge affecting lower trophic level prey and cascading up the food chain to impact keystone species. Here, we study how small-scale environmental variation at the level of each territory affects fitness-related traits and in particular reproductive success in the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus, a bird dependent on aquatic prey. We take advantage of a long-term study of breeding dippers in a natural river system in Norway (1978–2015). We relate daily river discharge and other important hydrological and territory location variables to clutch and brood size simultaneously, while accounting for male and female age, polygyny, and population density. We also address uncertainty in estimates of both clutch and brood size when modeling reproductive success. The most influential variable overall was the altitudinal gradient, where birds breeding at higher altitudes laid fewer eggs and fledged fewer young. Clutch size decreased with increased population density and high temperatures, while it was positively affected by female age. Brood size varied greatly among territories, where some territories had consistently larger broods than others. Increased minimum and maximum temperatures, river discharge above 10 l/s and increased variability in snow depth had a positive effect on brood size, whereas polygyny had a negative effect. In conclusion, territory-specific variables explained a large amount of the variation in the reproductive output in the dipper, emphasizing the importance of the local habitat, and not only climatic variation, in a keystone species in freshwater ecosystems.

Increased urbanization and increased observed precipitation intensity and -frequency due to climate change call for urban hydrological models capable of describing urban flow dynamics in data-scarce areas. A parameter parsimonious rainfall-runoff model, DDDUrban, forced by precipitation and temperature in which most model parameters are estimated from a detailed digital elevation model using GIS or taken from the literature is presented. Snowmelt and evapotranspiration are calculated using an energy balance approach, with proxy models for the energy balance elements driven by temperature and precipitation. The model focusses on subsurface and surface flow processes using an analysis of travel time distributions which indicates that the shape of the urban hydrograph is largely independent of the comparatively very rapid process of water transport in conduits. The model uses an estimate of the distribution of subsurface velocities as a function of saturation. The study shows that the calibrated mean of this distribution agrees with the saturated hydraulic conductivity estimated from infiltration measurements. The model has been calibrated and validated on observed runoff data at a 10 min temporal resolution for two Norwegian catchments in Oslo and Trondheim with acceptable validation results measured by the Kling-Gupta Efficiency criterion (KGE = 0.56–0.69). Simulations show that precipitation infiltrated on permeable areas contributes, on average, to the total flow at a fraction corresponding to the areal fraction of permeable areas. In addition, simulations show that for saturated conditions, a significant part (~30–60%) of the flood peak is derived from saturation excess overland flow. Simulation of snowmelt indicates that a more detailed model for the spatial distribution of snow accounting for snow removal, is needed. The catchment-scale effects of Low Impact Developments in the form of 10 m2 raingardens are simulated. In a residential area with 500 houses, 60 raingardens can reduce the flood peaks about 10%. A higher number of raingardens further reduce the flood peaks, but raingardens of too low capacity may increase secondary flood peaks for episodes of multiple heavy precipitation events.