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Abstract Background The widespread use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) has significantly contributed to the reduction in malaria cases and deaths observed across Africa. Unfortunately, this control strategy is threatened by the rapid spread of pyrethroid resistance in malaria vectors. Dual-active-ingredient insecticidal nets are now available to mitigate the impact of pyrethroid resistance. To facilitate evidence-based decisions regarding product selection in specific use settings, data are needed on the efficacy of these different nets against local mosquito populations. Methods Two experimental hut trials were performed in Za-Kpota, southern Benin in 2021 to evaluate the performance of Interceptor G2 (BASF), Royal Guard (Disease Control Technologies) and PermaNet 3.0 (Vestergaard Frandsen), all dual-active-ingredient bednets, in comparison to untreated or standard pyrethroid-treated bednets, against free-flying wild Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes. The performance of some of these next-generation nets was compared to the same type of nets that have been in use for up to 2 years. Mosquitoes collected in the huts were followed up after exposure to assess the sublethal effects of treatments on certain life-history traits. Results The predominant species in the study site was Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (An. gambiae s.s.). Both Anopheles coluzzii and An. gambiae s.s. were resistant to pyrethroids (deltamethrin susceptibility was restored by piperonyl butoxide pre-exposure). In the experimental hut trials, the highest blood-feeding inhibition (5.56%) was recorded for the Royal Guard net, relative to the standard PermaNet 2.0 net (44.44% inhibition). The highest 72-h mortality rate (90.11%) was recorded for the Interceptor G2 net compared to the PermaNet 2.0 net (56.04%). After exposure, the risk of death of An. gambiae sensu lato (An. gambiae s.l.) was 6.5-fold higher with the Interceptor G2 net and 4.4-fold higher with the PermaNet 3.0 net compared to the respective untreated net. Lower mosquito mortality was recorded with an aged Interceptor G2 net compared to a new Interceptor G2 net. Oviposition rates were lower in mosquitoes collected from huts containing ITNs compared to those of untreated controls. None of the mosquitoes collected from huts equipped with Royal Guard nets laid any eggs. Conclusions The Royal Guard and Interceptor G2 nets showed a potential to significantly improve the control of malaria-transmitting vectors. However, the PermaNet 3.0 net remains effective in pyrethroid-resistant areas. Graphical Abstract

Abstract Background Disruptions in malaria control due to COVID-19 mitigation measures were predicted to increase malaria morbidity and mortality in Africa substantially. In Uganda, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are distributed nationwide every 3–4 years, but the 2020–2021 campaign was altered because of COVID-19 restrictions so that the timing of delivery of new nets was different from the original plans made by the National Malaria Control Programme. Methods A transmission dynamics modelling exercise was conducted to explore how the altered delivery of LLINs in 2020–2021 impacted malaria burden in Uganda. Data were available on the planned LLIN distribution schedule for 2020–2021, and the actual delivery. The transmission model was used to simulate 100 health sub-districts, and parameterized to match understanding of local mosquito bionomics, net use estimates, and seasonal patterns based on data collected in 2017–2019 during a cluster-randomized trial (LLINEUP). Two scenarios were compared; simulated LLIN distributions matching the actual delivery schedule, and a comparable scenario simulating LLIN distributions as originally planned. Model parameters were otherwise matched between simulations. Results Approximately 70% of the study population received LLINs later than scheduled in 2020–2021, although some areas received LLINs earlier than planned. The model indicates that malaria incidence in 2020 was substantially higher in areas that received LLINs late. In some areas, early distribution of LLINs appeared less effective than the original distribution schedule, possibly due to attrition of LLINs prior to transmission peaks, and waning LLIN efficacy after distribution. On average, the model simulations predicted broadly similar overall mean malaria incidence in 2021 and 2022. After accounting for differences in cluster population size and LLIN distribution dates, no substantial increase in malaria burden was detected. Conclusions The model results suggest that the disruptions in the 2020–2021 LLIN distribution campaign in Uganda did not substantially increase malaria burden in the study areas.

Abstract Despite concern that climate change could increase the human risk to malaria in certain areas, the temperature dependency of malaria transmission is poorly characterized. Here, we use a mechanistic model fitted to experimental data to describe how Plasmodium falciparum infection of the African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, is modulated by temperature, including its influences on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, parasite development rate, and overall vector competence. We use these data, together with estimates of the survival of infected blood-fed mosquitoes, to explore the theoretical influence of temperature on transmission in four locations in Kenya, considering recent conditions and future climate change. Results provide insights into factors limiting transmission in cooler environments and indicate that increases in malaria transmission due to climate warming in areas like the Kenyan Highlands, might be less than previously predicted.

A bstract Background Anopheles mosquitoes are ectothermic and involved in numerous pathogen transmissions. Their life history traits are influenced by several environmental factors such as temperature, relative humidity and photoperiodicity. Despite extensive investigations of these environmental conditions on vector population ecology, their impact on the different life stages of Anopheles at different seasons in the year remains poorly explored. This study reports the potential impact of these abiotic factors on the immature and adult stages of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato during different seasons. Methods Environmental conditions were simulated in the laboratory using incubators to mimic the environmental conditions of two important periods of the year in Burkina Faso: the peak of rainy season (August) and the onset of dry season (December). Eggs from wild An. coluzzii and An. gambiae s.l. were reared separately under each environmental condition. For Anopheles coluzzii or An. gambiae s.l., eggs were equally divided into two groups assigned to the two experimental conditions. Four replicates were carried out for this experiment. Then, egg hatching rate, pupation rate, larval development time, larva-to-pupae development time, adult emergence dynamics and longevity of Anopheles were evaluated. Also, pupae-to-adult development time from wild L3 and L4 Anopheles larvae was estimated under semi-field conditions in December. Results A better egg hatching rate was recorded overall with conditions mimicking the onset of the dry season compared to the peak of the rainy season. Larval development time and longevity of An. gambiae s.l. female were significantly longer at the onset of the dry season compared than at the peak of the rainy season. Adult emergence was spread over 48 and 96 h at the peak of the rainy season and onset of dry season conditions respectively. This 96h duration in the controlled conditions of December was also observed in the semi-field conditions in December. Conclusions The impact of temperature and relative humidity on immature stages and longevity of An. gambiae s.l. adult females differed under both conditions. These findings contribute to a better understanding of vector population dynamics throughout different seasons of the year and may facilitate tailoring of control strategies. Graphical Abstract

Abstract Background Following the World Health Organization (WHO) endorsement of dual active ingredient (AI) nets, an increased uptake of pyrethroid-chlorfenapyr and pyrethroid-pyriproxyfen nets is expected. Studies evaluating their physical and insecticidal durability are essential for making programmatic and procurement decisions. This paper describes the methodology for a prospective study to evaluate the attrition, fabric integrity, insecticidal durability of Interceptor® G2 (alpha-cypermethrin-chlorfenapyr) and Royal Guard® (alpha-cypermethrin-pyriproxyfen), compared to Interceptor® (alpha-cypermethrin), embedded in a 3-arm cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) in the Zou Department of Benin. Methods Ten clusters randomly selected from each arm of the cRCT will be used for the study. A total of 750 ITNs per type will be followed in 5 study clusters per arm to assess ITN attrition and fabric integrity at 6-, 12-, 24- and 36-months post distribution, using standard WHO procedures. A second cohort of 1800 nets per type will be withdrawn every 6 months from all 10 clusters per arm and assessed for chemical content and biological activity in laboratory bioassays at each time point. Alpha-cypermethrin bioefficacy in Interceptor® and Royal Guard® will be monitored in WHO cone bioassays and tunnel tests using the susceptible Anopheles gambiae Kisumu strain. The bioefficacy of the non-pyrethroid insecticides (chlorfenapyr in Interceptor® G2 and pyriproxyfen in Royal Guard®) will be monitored using the pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles coluzzii Akron strain. Chlorfenapyr activity will be assessed in tunnel tests while pyriproxyfen activity will be assessed in cone bioassays in terms of the reduction in fertility of blood-fed survivors observed by dissecting mosquito ovaries. Nets withdrawn at 12, 24 and 36 months will be tested in experimental hut trials within the cRCT study area against wild free-flying pyrethroid resistant An. gambiae sensu lato to investigate their superiority to Interceptor® and to compare them to ITNs washed 20 times for experimental hut evaluation studies. Mechanistic models will also be used to investigate whether entomological outcomes with each dual ITN type in experimental hut trials can predict their epidemiological performance in the cRCT. Conclusion This study will provide information on the durability of two dual AI nets (Interceptor® G2 and Royal Guard®) in Benin and will help identify suitable methods for monitoring the durability of their insecticidal activity under operational conditions. The modelling component will determine the capacity of experimental hut trials to predict the epidemiological performance of dual AI nets across their lifespan.

Long lasting insecticide treated mosquito nets (LLINs) provide protection from malaria through both direct effects to the user and indirect community-level effects. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to assess the relative contributions of these effects under different insecticide resistance and LLIN usage scenarios.

Abstract Background The continued spread of insecticide resistance in mosquito vectors of malaria and arboviral diseases may lead to operational failure of insecticide-based interventions if resistance is not monitored and managed efficiently. This study aimed to develop and validate a new WHO glass bottle bioassay method as an alternative to the WHO standard insecticide tube test to monitor mosquito susceptibility to new public health insecticides with particular modes of action, physical properties or both. Methods A multi-centre study involving 21 laboratories worldwide generated data on the susceptibility of seven mosquito species (Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto [An. gambiae s.s.], Anopheles funestus, Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles minimus and Anopheles albimanus) to seven public health insecticides in five classes, including pyrethroids (metofluthrin, prallethrin and transfluthrin), neonicotinoids (clothianidin), pyrroles (chlorfenapyr), juvenile hormone mimics (pyriproxyfen) and butenolides (flupyradifurone), in glass bottle assays. The data were analysed using a Bayesian binomial model to determine the concentration–response curves for each insecticide–species combination and to assess the within-bioassay variability in the susceptibility endpoints, namely the concentration that kills 50% and 99% of the test population (LC50 and LC99, respectively) and the concentration that inhibits oviposition of the test population by 50% and 99% (OI50 and OI99), to measure mortality and the sterilizing effect, respectively. Results Overall, about 200,000 mosquitoes were tested with the new bottle bioassay, and LC50/LC99 or OI50/OI99 values were determined for all insecticides. Variation was seen between laboratories in estimates for some mosquito species–insecticide combinations, while other test results were consistent. The variation was generally greater with transfluthrin and flupyradifurone than with the other compounds tested, especially against Anopheles species. Overall, the mean within-bioassay variability in mortality and oviposition inhibition were

Abstract Background Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has the potential to be a useful tool for assessing key entomological parameters of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes, including age, infectious status and species identity. However, before NIRS can be reliably used in the field at scale, methods for killing mosquitoes and conserving samples prior to NIRS scanning need to be further optimized. Historically, mosquitoes used in studies have been killed with chloroform, although this approach is not without health hazards and should not be used in human dwellings. For the application of NIRS scanning it is also unclear which mosquito preservation method to use. The aim of the study reported here was to investigate the use of pyrethrum spray, a commercially available insecticide spray in Burkina Faso, for killing mosquitoes Methods Laboratory-reared Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles coluzzii were killed using either a pyrethrum insecticide spray routinely used in studies involving indoor mosquito collections (Kaltox Paalga®; Saphyto, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso) or chloroform (“gold standard”). Preservative methods were also investigated to determine their impact on NIRS accuracy in predicting the species of laboratory-reared Anopheles and wild-caught mosquito species. After analysis of fresh samples, mosquitoes were stored in 80% ethanol or in silica gel for 2 weeks and re-analyzed by NIRS. In addition, experimentally infected An. coluzzii and wild-caught An. gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) were scanned as fresh samples to determine whether they contained sporozoites, then stored in the preservatives mentioned above for 2 weeks before being re-analyzed. Results The difference in the accuracy of NIRS to differentiate between laboratory-reared An. gambiae mosquitoes and An. coluzzii mosquitoes killed with either insecticide (90%) or chloroform (92%) was not substantial. NIRS had an accuracy of 90% in determining mosquito species for mosquitoes killed with chloroform and preserved in ethanol or silica gel. The accuracy was the same when the pyrethrum spray was used to kill mosquitoes followed by preservation in silica gel, but was lower when ethanol was used as a preservative (80%). Regarding infection status, NIRS was able to differentiate between infected and uninfected mosquitoes, with a slightly lower accuracy for both laboratory and wild-caught mosquitoes preserved in silica gel or ethanol. Conclusions The results show that NIRS can be used to classify An. gambiae s.l. species killed by pyrethrum spray with no loss of accuracy. This insecticide may have practical advantages over chloroform for the killing of mosquitoes in NIRS analysis. Graphical Abstract

Estimating the effectiveness of malaria vector control interventions has typically relied on resource-intensive cluster randomised trials. Here, the authors estimate changes in malaria prevalence using entomological data from experimental hut trials, which may provide an alternative route to approval of interventions in some situations.

Abstract Background Progress achieved by long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against malaria is threatened by widespread selection of pyrethroid resistance among vector populations. LLINs with non-pyrethroid insecticides are urgently needed. This study aims to assess the insecticide and textile durability of three classes of dual-active ingredient (A.I.) LLINs using techniques derived from established WHO LLIN testing methods to set new standards of evaluation. Methods A WHO Phase 3 active ingredients and textile durability study will be carried out within a cluster randomized controlled trial in 40 clusters in Misungwi district, Tanzania. The following treatments will be evaluated: (1) Interceptor®G2 combining chlorfenapyr and the pyrethroid alpha-cypermethrin, (2) Royal Guard® treated with pyriproxyfen and alpha-cypermethrin, (3) Olyset™ Plus which incorporates a synergist piperonyl butoxide and the pyrethroid permethrin, and (4) a reference standard alpha-cypermethrin only LLIN (Interceptor®). 750 nets will be followed in 5 clusters per intervention arm at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months post distribution for survivorship and hole index assessment. A second cohort of 1950 nets per net type will be identified in 10 clusters, of which 30 LLINs will be withdrawn for bio-efficacy and chemical analysis every 6 months up to 36 months and another 30 collected for experimental hut trials every year. Bio-efficacy will be assessed using cone bioassays and tunnel tests against susceptible and resistant laboratory strains of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto. Efficacy of field-collected nets will be compared in six experimental huts. The main outcomes will be Anopheles mortality up to 72 h post exposure, blood feeding and egg maturation using ovary dissection to assess impact on fecundity. Conclusions Study findings will help develop bio-efficacy and physical durability criteria for partner A.I., in relation to the cRCT epidemiological and entomological outcomes, and refine preferred product characteristics of each class of LLIN. If suitable, the bioassay and hut outcomes will be fitted to transmission models to estimate correlation with cRCT outcomes. Trial registration number: NCT03554616.

Abstract Background Pyrethroid-PBO nets were conditionally recommended for control of malaria transmitted by mosquitoes with oxidase-based pyrethroid-resistance based on epidemiological evidence of additional protective effect with Olyset Plus compared to a pyrethroid-only net (Olyset Net). Entomological studies can be used to assess the comparative performance of other brands of pyrethroid-PBO ITNs to Olyset Plus. Methods An experimental hut trial was performed in Cové, Benin to compare PermaNet 3.0 (deltamethrin plus PBO on roof panel only) to Olyset Plus (permethrin plus PBO on all panels) against wild pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) following World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Both nets were tested unwashed and after 20 standardized washes compared to Olyset Net. Laboratory bioassays were also performed to help explain findings in the experimental huts. Results With unwashed nets, mosquito mortality was higher in huts with PermaNet 3.0 compared to Olyset Plus (41% vs. 28%, P

Abstract Burkina Faso has one of the highest malaria burdens in sub-Saharan Africa despite the mass deployment of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and use of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in children aged up to 5 years. Identification of risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum infection in rural Burkina Faso could help to identify and target malaria control measures. A cross-sectional survey of 1,199 children and adults was conducted during the peak malaria transmission season in the Cascades Region of south-west Burkina Faso in 2017. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for microscopically confirmed P. falciparum infection. A malaria transmission dynamic model was used to determine the impact on malaria cases averted of administering SMC to children aged 5–15 year old. P. falciparum prevalence was 32.8% in the study population. Children aged 5 to

Insecticide resistance is a growing problem that risks harming the progress made by vector control tools in reducing the malaria burden globally. New methods for quantifying the extent of resistance in wild populations are urgently needed to guide deployment of interventions to improve disease control. Intensity bioassays measure mosquito mortality at a range of insecticide doses and characterise phenotypic resistance in regions where resistance is already detected. These data are increasingly being collected but tend to exhibit high measurement error and there is a lack of formal guidelines on how they should be analysed or compared. This paper introduces a novel Bayesian framework for analysing intensity bioassay data, which uses a flexible statistical model able to capture a wide variety of relationships between mortality and insecticide dose. By accounting for background mortality of mosquitoes, our approach minimises the impact of this source of measurement noise resulting in more precise quantification of resistance. It outputs a range of metrics for describing the intensity and variability in resistance within the sample and quantifies the level of measurement error in the assay. The functionality is illustrated with data from laboratory-reared mosquitoes to show how the lethal dose varies within and between different strains. The framework can also be used to formally test hypotheses by explicitly considering the high heterogeneity seen in these types of data in field samples. Here we show that the intensity of resistance (as measured by the median lethal dose (LC50) of insecticide) increases over 7 years in mosquitoes from one village in Burkina Faso but remains constant in another. This work showcases the benefits of statistically rigorous analysis of insecticide bioassay data and highlights the additional information available from this and other dose-response data.

Experimental hut trials (EHTs) are used to evaluate indoor vector control interventions against malaria vectors in a controlled setting. The level of variability present in the assay will influence whether a given study is well powered to answer the research question being considered. We utilised disaggregated data from 15 previous EHTs to gain insight into the behaviour typically observed. Using simulations from generalised linear mixed models to obtain power estimates for EHTs, we show how factors such as the number of mosquitoes entering the huts each night and the magnitude of included random effects can influence study power. A wide variation in behaviour is observed in both the mean number of mosquitoes collected per hut per night (ranging from 1.6 to 32.5) and overdispersion in mosquito mortality. This variability in mortality is substantially greater than would be expected by chance and should be included in all statistical analyses to prevent false precision of results. We utilise both superiority and non-inferiority trials to illustrate our methodology, using mosquito mortality as the outcome of interest. The framework allows the measurement error of the assay to be reliably assessed and enables the identification of outlier results which could warrant further investigation. EHTs are increasingly playing an important role in the evaluation and regulation of indoor vector control interventions so it is important to ensure that these studies are adequately powered.

Abstract Malaria parasite transmission to mosquitoes relies on the uptake of sexual stage parasites during a blood meal and subsequent formation of oocysts on the mosquito midgut wall. Transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) target sexual stage antigens to interrupt human-to-mosquito transmission and may form important tools for malaria elimination. Although most epitopes of these antigens are considered highly conserved, little is known about the impact of natural genetic diversity on the functional activity of transmission-blocking antibodies. Here we measured the efficacy of three mAbs against leading TBV candidates (Pfs48/45, Pfs25 and Pfs230) in transmission assays with parasites from naturally infected donors compared to their efficacy against the strain they were raised against (NF54). Transmission-reducing activity (TRA) was measured as reduction in mean oocyst intensity. mAb 45.1 (α-Pfs48/45) and mAb 4B7 (α-Pfs25) reduced transmission of field parasites from almost all donors with IC80 values similar to NF54. Sequencing of oocysts that survived high mAb concentrations did not suggest enrichment of escape genotypes. mAb 2A2 (α-Pfs230) only reduced transmission of parasites from a minority of the donors, suggesting that it targets a non-conserved epitope. Using six laboratory-adapted strains, we revealed that mutations in one Pfs230 domain correlate with mAb gamete surface binding and functional TRA. Our findings demonstrate that, despite the conserved nature of sexual stage antigens, minor sequence variation can significantly impact the efficacy of transmission-blocking mAbs. Since mAb 45.1 shows high potency against genetically diverse strains, our findings support its further clinical development and may inform Pfs48/45 vaccine design.

Abstract Background As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. Results C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.

Abstract There is an urgent need for high throughput, affordable methods of detecting pathogens inside insect vectors to facilitate surveillance. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has shown promise to detect arbovirus and malaria in the laboratory but has not been evaluated in field conditions. Here we investigate the ability of NIRS to identify Plasmodium falciparum in Anopheles coluzzii mosquitoes. NIRS models trained on laboratory-reared mosquitoes infected with wild malaria parasites can detect the parasite in comparable mosquitoes with moderate accuracy though fails to detect oocysts or sporozoites in naturally infected field caught mosquitoes. Models trained on field mosquitoes were unable to predict the infection status of other field mosquitoes. Restricting analyses to mosquitoes of uninfectious and highly-infectious status did improve predictions suggesting sensitivity and specificity may be better in mosquitoes with higher numbers of parasites. Detection of infection appears restricted to homogenous groups of mosquitoes diminishing NIRS utility for detecting malaria within mosquitoes.

Malaria transmission-blocking vaccines are in development, but roll-out strategies have not been assessed. Here, the authors show that transmission-blocking activity is likely to be higher in the field than in laboratory conditions, and that school-aged children are an important group to target.

Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes, efficient vectors in parts of Asia and Africa, were found in 75.3% of water sources surveyed and contributed to 80.9% of wild-caught Anopheles mosquitoes in Awash Sebat Kilo, Ethiopia. High susceptibility of these mosquitoes to Plasmodium falciparum and vivax infection presents a challenge for malaria control in the Horn of Africa.

Abstract Background Practical, field-ready age-grading tools for mosquito vectors of disease are urgently needed because of the impact that daily survival has on vectorial capacity. Previous studies have shown that near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), in combination with chemometrics and predictive modeling, can forecast the age of laboratory-reared mosquitoes with moderate to high accuracy. It remains unclear whether the technique has utility for identifying shifts in the age structure of wild-caught mosquitoes. Here we investigate whether models derived from the laboratory strain of mosquitoes can be used to predict the age of mosquitoes grown from pupae collected in the field. Methods NIRS data from adult female Aedes albopictus mosquitoes reared in the laboratory (2, 5, 8, 12 and 15 days-old) were analysed against spectra from mosquitoes emerging from wild-caught pupae (1, 7 and 14 days-old). Different partial least squares (PLS) regression methods trained on spectra from laboratory mosquitoes were evaluated on their ability to predict the age of mosquitoes from more natural environments. Results Models trained on spectra from laboratory-reared material were able to predict the age of other laboratory-reared mosquitoes with moderate accuracy and successfully differentiated all day 2 and 15 mosquitoes. Models derived with laboratory mosquitoes could not differentiate between field-derived age groups, with age predictions relatively indistinguishable for day 1–14. Pre-processing of spectral data and improving the PLS regression framework to avoid overfitting can increase accuracy, but predictions of mosquitoes reared in different environments remained poor. Principal components analysis confirms substantial spectral variations between laboratory and field-derived mosquitoes despite both originating from the same island population. Conclusions Models trained on laboratory mosquitoes were able to predict ages of laboratory mosquitoes with good sensitivity and specificity though they were unable to predict age of field-derived mosquitoes. This study suggests that laboratory-reared mosquitoes do not capture enough environmental variation to accurately predict the age of the same species reared under different conditions. Further research is needed to explore alternative pre-processing methods and machine learning techniques, and to understand factors that affect absorbance in mosquitoes before field application using NIRS.

BackgroundProspective malaria public health interventions are initially tested for entomological impact using standardised experimental hut trials. In some cases, data are collated as aggregated counts of potential outcomes from mosquito feeding attempts given the presence of an insecticidal intervention. Comprehensive data i.e. full breakdowns of probable outcomes of mosquito feeding attempts, are more rarely available. Bayesian evidence synthesis is a framework that explicitly combines data sources to enable the joint estimation of parameters and their uncertainties. The aggregated and comprehensive data can be combined using an evidence synthesis approach to enhance our inference about the potential impact of vector control products across different settings over time.MethodsAggregated and comprehensive data from a meta-analysis of the impact of Pirimiphos-methyl, an indoor residual spray (IRS) product active ingredient, used on wall surfaces to kill mosquitoes and reduce malaria transmission, were analysed using a series of statistical models to understand the benefits and limitations of each.ResultsMany more data are available in aggregated format (N = 23 datasets, 4 studies) relative to comprehensive format (N = 2 datasets, 1 study). The evidence synthesis model had the smallest uncertainty at predicting the probability of mosquitoes dying or surviving and blood-feeding. Generating odds ratios from the correlated Bernoulli random sample indicates that when mortality and blood-feeding are positively correlated, as exhibited in our data, the number of successfully fed mosquitoes will be under-estimated. Analysis of either dataset alone is problematic because aggregated data require an assumption of independence and there are few and variable data in the comprehensive format.ConclusionsWe developed an approach to combine sources from trials to maximise the inference that can be made from such data and that is applicable to other systems. Bayesian evidence synthesis enables inference from multiple datasets simultaneously to give a more informative result and highlight conflicts between sources. Advantages and limitations of these models are discussed.

Indoor residual spraying is a commonly used method for mosquito, and malaria, control and there are a number of available insecticides that are available for this. Here, the authors evaluate the efficacy of widely-used and novel insecticides against pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes.

Resistance of anopheline mosquitoes to pyrethroid insecticides is spreading rapidly across sub-Saharan Africa, diminishing the efficacy of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) – the primary tool for preventing malaria. The entomological efficacy of indoor vector control interventions can be measured in experimental hut trials (EHTs), where hut structures resemble local housing, but allow the collection of mosquitoes that entered, exited, blood-fed and/or died. There is a need to understand how the spread of resistance changes ITN efficacy and to elucidate factors influencing EHT results, including differences in experimental hut design, to support the development of novel vector control tools. A comprehensive database of EHTs was compiled following a systematic review to identify all known trials investigating ITNs or indoor residual spraying across sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis focuses on EHTs investigating ITNs and uses Bayesian statistical models to characterise the complex interaction between ITNs and mosquitoes, the between-study variability, and the impact of pyrethroid resistance. As resistance rises, the entomological efficacy of ITNs declines. They induce less mortality and are less likely to deter mosquitoes from entering huts. Despite this, ITNs continue to offer considerable personal protection by reducing mosquito feeding until resistance reaches high levels. There are clear associations between the different entomological impacts of ITNs, though there is still substantial variability between studies, some of which can be accounted for by hut design. The relationship between EHT outcomes and the level of resistance (as measured by discriminating dose bioassays) is highly uncertain. The meta-analyses show that EHTs are an important reproducible assay for capturing the complex entomological efficacy of ITNs on blood-feeding mosquitoes. The impact of pyrethroid resistance on these measures appears broadly consistent across a wide geographical area once hut design is accounted for, suggesting results can be extrapolated beyond the sites where the trials were conducted. Further work is needed to understand factors influencing EHT outcomes and how the relationship between outcomes and resistance varies when different methods are used to assess the level of resistance in wild mosquito populations. This will allow more precise estimates of the efficacy of these important vector control tools.

BackgroundIn the absence of vaccines or drugs, insecticides are the mainstay of Aedes-borne disease control. Their utility is challenged by the slow deployment of resources, poor community compliance and inadequate household coverage. Novel application methods are required.Methodology and principal findingsA 10% w/w metofluthrin "emanator" that passively disseminates insecticide from an impregnated net was evaluated in a randomized trial of 200 houses in Mexico. The devices were introduced at a rate of 1 per room and replaced at 3-week intervals. During each of 7 consecutive deployment cycles, indoor resting mosquitoes were sampled using aspirator collections. Assessments of mosquito landing behaviours were made in a subset of houses. Pre-treatment, there were no differences in Aedes aegypti indices between houses recruited to the control and treatment arms. Immediately after metofluthrin deployment, the entomological indices between the trial arms diverged. Averaged across the trial, there were significant reductions in Abundance Rate Ratios for total Ae. aegypti, female abundance and females that contained blood meals (2.5, 2.4 and 2.3-times fewer mosquitoes respectively; PConclusions/significanceThis is the first randomized control trial to evaluate the entomological impact of any volatile pyrethroid on urban Ae. aegypti. It demonstrates that volatile pyrethroids can have a sustained impact on Ae. aegypti population densities and human-vector contact indoors. These effects occur despite the presence of pyrethroid-resistant alleles in the target population. Formulations like these may have considerable utility for public health vector control responses.

Summary: Background: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. Methods: Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. Interpretation: Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council.

Abstract Background The number of clinical cases of malaria is often recorded in resource constrained or conflict settings as a proxy for disease burden. Interpreting case count data in areas of humanitarian need is challenging due to uncertainties in population size caused by security concerns, resource constraints and population movement. Malaria prevalence in women visiting ante-natal care (ANC) clinics has the potential to be an easier and more accurate metric for malaria surveillance that is unbiased by population size if malaria testing is routinely conducted irrespective of symptoms. Methods A suite of distributed lag non-linear models was fitted to clinical incidence time-series data in children under 5 years and ANC prevalence data from health centres run by Médecins Sans Frontières in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which implement routine intermittent screening and treatment alongside intermittent preventative treatment in pregnancy. These statistical models enable the temporal relationship between the two metrics to be disentangled. Results There was a strong relationship between the ANC prevalence and clinical incidence suggesting that both can be used to describe current malaria endemicity. There was no evidence that ANC prevalence could predict future clinical incidence, though a change in clinical incidence was shown to influence ANC prevalence up to 3 months into the future. Conclusions The results indicate that ANC prevalence may be a suitable metric for retrospective evaluations of the impact of malaria interventions and is a useful method for evaluating long-term malaria trends in resource constrained settings.

Mating causes dramatic changes in female physiology, behaviour, and immunity in many insects, inducing oogenesis, oviposition, and refractoriness to further mating. Females from the Anopheles gambiae species complex typically mate only once in their lifetime during which they receive sperm and seminal fluid proteins as well as a mating plug that contains the steroid hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone. This hormone, which is also induced by blood-feeding, plays a major role in activating vitellogenesis for egg production. Here we show that female Anopheles coluzzii susceptibility to Plasmodium falciparum infection is significantly higher in mated females compared to virgins. We also find that mating status has a major impact on the midgut transcriptome, detectable only under sugar-fed conditions: once females have blood-fed, the transcriptional changes that are induced by mating are likely masked by the widespread effects of blood-feeding on gene expression. To determine whether increased susceptibility to parasites could be driven by the additional 20E that mated females receive from males, we mimicked mating by injecting virgin females with 20E, finding that these females are significantly more susceptible to human malaria parasites than virgin females injected with the control 20E carrier. Further RNAseq was carried out to examine whether the genes that change upon 20E injection in the midgut are similar to those that change upon mating. We find that 79 midgut-expressed genes are regulated in common by both mating and 20E, and 96% (n = 76) of these are regulated in the same direction (up vs down in 20E/mated). Together, these findings show that male Anopheles mosquitoes induce changes in the female midgut that can affect female susceptibility to P. falciparum. This implies that in nature, males might contribute to malaria transmission in previously unappreciated ways, and that vector control strategies that target males may have additional benefits towards reducing transmission.

Abstract Background The proportion of mosquitoes infected with malaria is an important entomological metric used to assess the intensity of transmission and the impact of vector control interventions. Currently, the prevalence of mosquitoes with salivary gland sporozoites is estimated by dissecting mosquitoes under a microscope or using molecular methods. These techniques are laborious, subjective, and require either expensive equipment or training. This study evaluates the potential of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to identify laboratory reared mosquitoes infected with rodent malaria. Methods Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes were reared in the laboratory and fed on Plasmodium berghei infected blood. After 12 and 21 days post-feeding mosquitoes were killed, scanned and analysed using NIRS and immediately dissected by microscopy to determine the number of oocysts on the midgut wall or sporozoites in the salivary glands. A predictive classification model was used to determine parasite prevalence and intensity status from spectra. Results The predictive model correctly classifies infectious and uninfectious mosquitoes with an overall accuracy of 72%. The false negative and false positive rates were 30 and 26%, respectively. While NIRS was able to differentiate between uninfectious and highly infectious mosquitoes, differentiating between mid-range infectious groups was less accurate. Multiple scans of the same specimen, with repositioning the mosquito between scans, is shown to improve accuracy. On a smaller dataset NIRS was unable to predict whether mosquitoes harboured oocysts. Conclusions To our knowledge, we provide the first evidence that NIRS can differentiate between infectious and uninfectious mosquitoes. Currently, distinguishing between different intensities of infection is challenging. The classification model provides a flexible framework and allows for different error rates to be optimised, enabling the sensitivity and specificity of the technique to be varied according to requirements.

Pyrethroid resistance is widespread in malaria vectors. However, differential mortality in discriminating dose assays to different pyrethroids is often observed in wild populations. When this occurs, it is unclear if this differential mortality should be interpreted as an indication of differential levels of susceptibility within the pyrethroid class, and if so, if countries should consider selecting one specific pyrethroid for programmatic use over another. A review of evidence from molecular studies, resistance testing with laboratory colonies and wild populations, and mosquito behavioural assays were conducted to answer these questions. Evidence suggested that in areas where pyrethroid resistance exists, different results in insecticide susceptibility assays with specific pyrethroids currently in common use (deltamethrin, permethrin, α-cypermethrin, and λ-cyhalothrin) are not necessarily indicative of an operationally relevant difference in potential performance. Consequently, it is not advisable to use rotation between these pyrethroids as an insecticide-resistance management strategy. Less commonly used pyrethroids (bifenthrin and etofenprox) may have sufficiently different modes of action, though further work is needed to examine how this may apply to insecticide resistance management.

Heterogeneity in the transmission potential of individual hosts is an important feature of malaria. Here, the authors perform a multi-regional study of the human infectious reservoir in malaria-endemic regions of Burkina Faso and Kenya.

Abstract Background With the increasing interest in vaccines to interrupt malaria transmission, there is a demand for harmonization of current methods to assess Plasmodium transmission in laboratory settings. Potential vaccine candidates are currently tested in the standard membrane feeding assay (SMFA) that commonly relies on Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes. Other mosquito species including Anopheles gambiae are the dominant malaria vectors for Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods Using human serum and monoclonal pre-fertilization (anti-Pfs48/45) and post-fertilization (anti-Pfs25) antibodies known to effectively inhibit sporogony, we directly compared SMFA based estimates of transmission-reducing activity (TRA) for An. stephensi and An. gambiae mosquitoes. Results In the absence of transmission-reducing antibodies, average numbers of oocysts were similar between An. gambiae and An. stephensi. Antibody-mediated TRA was strongly correlated between both mosquito species, and absolute TRA estimates for pre-fertilisation monoclonal antibodies (mAb) showed no significant difference between the two species. TRA estimates for IgG of naturally exposed individuals and partially effective concentrations of anti-Pfs25 mAb were higher for An. stephensi than for An. gambiae. Conclusion Our findings support the use of An. stephensi in the SMFA for target prioritization. As a vaccine moves through product development, better estimates of TRA and transmission-blocking activity (TBA) may need to be obtained in epidemiologically relevant parasite-species combination.

Abstract Transmission blocking vaccines (TBV) which aim to control malaria by inhibiting human-to-mosquito transmission show considerable promise though their utility against naturally circulating parasites remains unknown. The efficacy of two lead candidates targeting Pfs25 and Pfs230 antigens to prevent onwards transmission of naturally occurring parasites to a local mosquito strain is assessed using direct membrane feeding assays and murine antibodies in Burkina Faso. The transmission blocking activity of both candidates depends on the level of parasite exposure (as assessed by the mean number of oocysts in control mosquitoes) and antibody titers. A mathematical framework is devised to allow the efficacy of different candidates to be directly compared and determine the minimal antibody titers required to halt transmission in different settings. The increased efficacy with diminishing parasite exposure indicates that the efficacy of vaccines targeting either Pfs25 or Pfs230 may increase as malaria transmission declines. This has important implications for late-stage candidate selection and assessing how they can support the drive for malaria elimination.

Abstract Background Transmission-blocking interventions (TBIs) aim to eliminate malaria by reducing transmission of the parasite between the host and the invertebrate vector. TBIs include transmission-blocking drugs and vaccines that, when given to humans, are taken up by mosquitoes and inhibit parasitic development within the vector. Accurate methodologies are key to assess TBI efficacy to ensure that only the most potent candidates progress to expensive and time-consuming clinical trials. Measuring intervention efficacy can be problematic because there is substantial variation in the number of parasites in both the host and vector populations, which can impact transmission even in laboratory settings. Methods A statistically robust empirical method is introduced for estimating intervention efficacy from standardised population assay experiments. This method will be more reliable than simple summary statistics as it captures changes in parasite density in different life-stages. It also allows efficacy estimates at a finer resolution than previous methods enabling the impact of the intervention over successive generations to be tracked. A major advantage of the new methodology is that it makes no assumptions on the population dynamics of infection. This enables both host-to-vector and vector-to-host transmission to be density-dependent (or other) processes and generates easy-to-understand estimates of intervention efficacy. Results This method increases the precision of intervention efficacy estimates and demonstrates that relying on changes in infection prevalence (the proportion of infected hosts) alone may be insufficient to capture the impact of TBIs, which also suppress parasite density in secondarily infected hosts. Conclusions The method indicates that potentially useful, partially effective TBIs may require multiple infection cycles before substantial reductions in prevalence are observed, despite more rapidly suppressing parasite density. Accurate models to quantify efficacy will have important implications for understanding how TBI candidates might perform in field situations and how they should be evaluated in clinical trials.

Thrombospondin type I repeat (TSR) domains are commonly O-fucosylated by protein O-fucosyltransferase 2 (PoFUT2), and this modification is required for optimal folding and secretion of TSR-containing proteins. The human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum expresses proteins containing TSR domains, such as the thrombospondin-related anonymous protein (TRAP) and circumsporozoite surface protein (CSP), which are O-fucosylated. TRAP and CSP are present on the surface of sporozoites and play essential roles in mosquito and human host invasion processes during the transmission stages. Here, we have generated PoFUT2 null-mutant P. falciparum and Plasmodium berghei (rodent) malaria parasites and, by phenotyping them throughout their complete life cycle, we show that PoFUT2 disruption does not affect the growth through the mosquito stages for both species. However, contrary to what has been described previously by others, P. berghei PoFUT2 null mutant sporozoites showed no deleterious motility phenotypes and successfully established blood stage infection in mice. This unexpected result indicates that the importance of O-fucosylation of TSR domains may differ between human and RODENT malaria parasites; complicating our understanding of glycosylation modifications in malaria biology.

Anti-malarial pre-erythrocytic vaccines (PEV) target transmission by inhibiting human infection but are currently partially protective. It has been posited, but never demonstrated, that co-administering transmission-blocking vaccines (TBV) would enhance malaria control. We hypothesized a mechanism that TBV could reduce parasite density in the mosquito salivary glands, thereby enhancing PEV efficacy. This was tested using a multigenerational population assay, passaging Plasmodium berghei to Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes. A combined efficacy of 90.8% (86.7–94.2%) was observed in the PEV +TBV antibody group, higher than the estimated efficacy of 83.3% (95% CrI 79.1–87.0%) if the two antibodies acted independently. Higher PEV efficacy at lower mosquito parasite loads was observed, comprising the first direct evidence that co-administering anti-sporozoite and anti-transmission interventions act synergistically, enhancing PEV efficacy across a range of TBV doses and transmission intensities. Combining partially effective vaccines of differing anti-parasitic classes is a pragmatic, powerful way to accelerate malaria elimination efforts.

Understanding the importance of gametocyte density on human-to-mosquito transmission is of immediate relevance to malaria control. Previous work (Churcher et al., 2013) indicated a complex relationship between gametocyte density and mosquito infection. Here we use data from 148 feeding experiments on naturally infected gametocyte carriers to show that the relationship is much simpler and depends on both female and male parasite density. The proportion of mosquitoes infected is primarily determined by the density of female gametocytes though transmission from low gametocyte densities may be impeded by a lack of male parasites. Improved precision of gametocyte quantification simplifies the shape of the relationship with infection increasing rapidly before plateauing at higher densities. The mean number of oocysts per mosquito rises quickly with gametocyte density but continues to increase across densities examined. The work highlights the importance of measuring both female and male gametocyte density when estimating the human reservoir of infection.

Abstract Background The last decade has seen an expansion of national schistosomiasis control programmes in Africa based on large-scale preventative chemotherapy. In many areas this has resulted in considerable reductions in infection and morbidity levels in treated individuals. In this paper, we quantify changes in the force of infection (FOI), defined here as the per (human) host parasite establishment rate, to ascertain the impact on transmission of some of these programmes under the umbrella of the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI). Methods A previous model for the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma mansoni was adapted here to S. haematobium. These models were fitted to longitudinal cohort (infection intensity) monitoring and evaluation data. Changes in the FOI following up to three annual rounds of praziquantel were estimated for Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) according to country, baseline endemicity and schistosome species. Since schistosomiasis transmission is known to be highly focal, changes in the FOI at a finer geographical scale (that of sentinel site) were also estimated for S. mansoni in Uganda. Results Substantial and statistically significant reductions in the FOI relative to baseline were recorded in the majority of, but not all, combinations of country, parasite species, and endemicity areas. At the finer geographical scale assessed within Uganda, marked heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of the relative changes in FOI was observed that would not have been appreciated by a coarser-scale analysis. Conclusions Reductions in the rate at which humans acquire schistosomes have been achieved in many areas of SSA countries assisted by the SCI, while challenges in effectively reducing transmission persist in others. Understanding the underlying heterogeneity in the impact and performance of the control intervention at the level of the transmission site will become increasingly important for programmes transitioning from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. Such analyses will require a fine-scale approach. The lack of association found between programmatic variables, such as therapeutic treatment coverage (recorded at district level) and changes in FOI (at sentinel site level) is discussed and recommendations are made.

Over a century since Ronald Ross discovered that malaria is caused by the bite of an infectious mosquito it is still unclear how the number of parasites injected influences disease transmission. Currently it is assumed that all mosquitoes with salivary gland sporozoites are equally infectious irrespective of the number of parasites they harbour, though this has never been rigorously tested. Here we analyse >1000 experimental infections of humans and mice and demonstrate a dose-dependency for probability of infection and the length of the host pre-patent period. Mosquitoes with a higher numbers of sporozoites in their salivary glands following blood-feeding are more likely to have caused infection (and have done so quicker) than mosquitoes with fewer parasites. A similar dose response for the probability of infection was seen for humans given a pre-erythrocytic vaccine candidate targeting circumsporozoite protein (CSP), and in mice with and without transfusion of anti-CSP antibodies. These interventions prevented infection more efficiently from bites made by mosquitoes with fewer parasites. The importance of parasite number has widespread implications across malariology, ranging from our basic understanding of the parasite, how vaccines are evaluated and the way in which transmission should be measured in the field. It also provides direct evidence for why the only registered malaria vaccine RTS,S was partially effective in recent clinical trials.

Abstract Background The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has refocused its goals on the elimination of infection where possible, seemingly achievable by 15–17 years of annual mass distribution of ivermectin in some African foci. Previously, APOC had focused on the elimination of onchocerciasis as a public health problem. Timeframes have been set by the World Health Organization, the London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases and the World Bank to achieve these goals by 2020–2025. Methods A novel mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocercal disease is presented which links documented associations between Onchocerca volvulus infection and the prevalence and incidence of morbidity and mortality to model outputs from our host age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission framework (EpiOncho). The model is calibrated for African savannah settings, and used to assess the impact of long-term annual mass administration of ivermectin on infection and ocular and skin disease and to explore how this depends on epidemiological and programmatic variables. Results Current onchocerciasis disease projections, which do not account for excess mortality of sighted individuals with heavy microfilarial loads, underestimate disease burden. Long-term annual ivermectin treatment is highly effective at reducing both the morbidity and mortality associated with onchocerciasis, and this result is not greatly influenced by treatment coverage and compliance. By contrast, impact on microfilarial prevalence and intensity is highly dependent on baseline endemicity, treatment coverage and systematic non-compliance. Conclusions The goals of eliminating morbidity and infection with ivermectin alone are distinctly influenced by epidemiological and programmatic factors. Whilst the former goal is most certainly achievable, reaching the latter will strongly depend on initial endemicity (the higher the endemicity, the greater the magnitude of inter-treatment transmission), advising caution when generalising the applicability of successful elimination outcomes to other areas. The proportion of systematic non-compliers will become far more influential in terms of overall success in achieving elimination goals.

Abstract Background Targeting the stages of the malaria parasites responsible for transmission from the human host to the mosquito vector is a key pharmacological strategy for malaria control. Research efforts to identify compounds that are active against these stages have significantly increased in recent years. However, at present, only two drugs are available, namely primaquine and artesunate, which reportedly act on late stage gametocytes. Methods In this study, we assessed the antiplasmodial effects of 5 extracts obtained from the neem tree Azadirachta indica and Guiera senegalensis against the early vector stages of Plasmodium falciparum, using field isolates. In an ex vivo assay gametocytaemic blood was supplemented with the plant extracts and offered to Anopheles coluzzii females by membrane feeding. Transmission blocking activity was evaluated by assessing oocyst prevalence and density on the mosquito midguts. Results Initial screening of the 5 plant extracts at 250 ppm revealed transmission blocking activity in two neem preparations. Up to a concentration of 70 ppm the commercial extract NeemAzal® completely blocked transmission and at 60 ppm mosquitoes of 4 out of 5 replicate groups remained uninfected. Mosquitoes fed on the ethyl acetate phase of neem leaves at 250 ppm showed a reduction in oocyst prevalence of 59.0% (CI95 12.0 - 79.0; p

Long lasting pyrethroid treated bednets are the most important tool for preventing malaria. Pyrethroid resistant Anopheline mosquitoes are now ubiquitous in Africa, though the public health impact remains unclear, impeding the deployment of more expensive nets. Meta-analyses of bioassay studies and experimental hut trials are used to characterise how pyrethroid resistance changes the efficacy of standard bednets, and those containing the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO), and assess its impact on malaria control. New bednets provide substantial personal protection until high levels of resistance, though protection may wane faster against more resistant mosquito populations as nets age. Transmission dynamics models indicate that even low levels of resistance would increase the incidence of malaria due to reduced mosquito mortality and lower overall community protection over the life-time of the net. Switching to PBO bednets could avert up to 0.5 clinical cases per person per year in some resistance scenarios.

INTRODUCTION:In a markedly seasonal malaria setting, the transition from the transmission-free dry season to the transmission season depends on the resurgence of the mosquito population following the start of annual rains. The sudden onset of malaria outbreaks at the start of the transmission season suggests that parasites persist during the dry season and respond to either the reappearance of vectors, or correlated events, by increasing the production of transmission stages. Here, we investigate whether Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte density and the correlation between gametocyte density and parasite density show seasonal variation in chronic (largely asymptomatic) carriers in eastern Sudan. MATERIALS AND METHODS:We recruited and treated 123 malaria patients in the transmission season 2001. We then followed them monthly during four distinct consecutive epidemiological seasons: transmission season 1, transmission-free season, pre-clinical period, and transmission season 2. In samples collected from 25 participants who fulfilled the selection criteria of the current analysis, we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) and RT-qPCR to quantify parasite and gametocyte densities, respectively. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION:We observed a significant increase in gametocyte density and a significantly steeper positive correlation between gametocyte density and total parasite density during the pre-clinical period compared to the preceding transmission-free season. However, there was no corresponding increase in the density or prevalence of total parasites or gametocyte prevalence. The increase in gametocyte production during the pre-clinical period supports the hypothesis that P. falciparum may respond to environmental cues, such as mosquito biting, to modulate its transmission strategy. Thus, seasonal changes may be important to ignite transmission in unstable-malaria settings.