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The relationship between weather data and agronomical factors and deoxynivalenol (DON) levels in oats was examined with the aim of developing a predictive model. Data were collected from a total of 674 fields during periods of up to 10 years in Finland, Norway and Sweden, and included DON levels in the harvested oats crop, agronomical factors and weather data. The results show that there was a large regional variation in DON levels, with higher levels in one region in Norway compared with other regions in Norway, Finland and Sweden. In this region the median DON level was 1000 ng g⁻¹ and the regulatory limit for human consumption (1750 ng g⁻¹) was exceeded in 28% of the samples. In other regions the median DON levels ranged from 75 to 270 ng g⁻¹, and DON levels exceeded 1750 ng g⁻¹ in 3-8% of the samples. Including more variables than region in a multiple regression model only increased the adjusted coefficient of determination from 0.17 to 0.24, indicating that very little of the variation in DON levels could be explained by weather data or agronomical factors. Thus, it was not possible to predict DON levels based on the variables included in this study. Further studies are needed to solve this problem. Apparently the infection and/or growth of DON producing Fusarium species are promoted in certain regions. One possibility may be to study the species distribution of fungal communities and their changes during the oats cultivation period in more detail.

Climate change will affect mycotoxin contamination of feed and food. Mathematical models for predicting mycotoxin concentrations in cereal grains are useful for estimating the impact of climate change on these toxins. The objective of the current study was to construct a descriptive model to estimate climate change impacts on deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination of mature wheat grown in northwestern Europe. Observational data from 717 wheat fields in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and The Netherlands were analyzed, including the DON concentrations in mature wheat, agronomical practices, and local weather. Multiple regression analyses were conducted, and the best set of explanatory variables, mainly including weather factors, was selected. The final model included the following variables: flowering date, length of time between flowering and harvest, wheat resistance to Fusarium infection, and several climatic variables related to relative humidity, temperature, and rainfall during critical stages of wheat cultivation. The model accounted for 50 % of the variance, which was sufficient to make this model useful for estimating the trends of climate change on DON contamination of wheat in northwestern Europe. Application of the model in possible climate change scenarios is illustrated.

Contamination of Fusarium moulds and subsequent production of mycotoxins is a common problem in cereals grown in Northern Europe. Oats is the third most important cereal crop in Sweden and is commonly contaminated by Fusarium. To date there are no published reports on the distribution of trichothecene-producing Fusaria in Swedish oats and correlation to T-2 and HT-2, the two most dominant toxins. Identification of Fusarium species by traditional methods requires specific skill and experience and quantification of specific species is not possible. Using modern molecular methods such as real-time PCR both identification and quantification of specific Fusarium species are possible directly from the food or feed samples. In this study, specific methods for Fusarium langsethiae, Fusarium sporotrichioides, Fusarium graminearum, Fusarium culmorum and Fusarium poae as well as for the total amount of DNA from trichothecene-producing species were evaluated with respect to precision, robustness and efficiency and then used in the analysis of oat samples. Sixty-two oat samples were taken from field trial harvests from 2006-2008 in the central and southern parts of Sweden and analysed for the presence of Fusarium species by using species-specific real-time PCR-based methods with TaqMan or SYBR Green biochemistry. The T-2 and HT-2 toxin content was analysed by gas chromatography with electron capture detection of the toxins' pentafluoropropyl derivatives. The results showed that F. langsethiae and F. poae were the most dominant Fusarium species among those tested in Swedish oats during this period. The DNA level of F. langsethiae correlated well with the level of T-2 and HT-2 toxin (r=0.7), indicating that this species was the most important producer of T-2 and HT-2 toxins in Swedish oats during the sampling period (2006 to 2008). It can also be concluded that real-time PCR is a powerful tool when studying Fusarium species distribution in oats.

Fusarium moulds frequently contaminate oats and other cereals world-wide, including those grown in Northern Europe. To investigate the presence of toxigenic Fusarium species and their toxins in oats, samples were taken during 2010 and 2011 in three geographical regions of Sweden (east, west, south). The samples were analysed by real-time PCR for the specific infection level of seven Fusarium species associated with oats and other cereals (Fusarium poae, Fusarium graminearum, Fusarium langsethiae, Fusarium culmorum, Fusarium tricinctum, Fusarium sporotrichioides and Fusarium avenaceum) and with a multi-mycotoxin method based on liquid chromatography/electrospray ionisation-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC/ESI-MS/MS) for the detection of many fungal metabolites, including deoxynivalenol (DON), zearalenone (ZEA), nivalenol (NIV), T-2 toxin, HT-2 toxins, moniliformin (MON), beauvericin (BEA) and enniatins (ENNs). Most samples contained at least four of the seven Fusarium species analysed and F. poae, F. langsethiae and F. avenaceum were present in approximately 90-100% of all samples. The most common toxins detected were DON, NIV, BEA and ENNs, which were present in more than 90% of samples. Most Fusarium species and their toxins occurred in higher concentrations in 2010 than in 2011, with the exception of DON and its main producer F. graminearum. Significant regional differences were detected for some moulds and mycotoxins, with higher levels of F. graminearum, DON and ZEA in western Sweden than in the east (P

The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985–2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site–year–variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1°C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1–3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1–3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied. The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985–2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site–year–variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1°C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1–3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1–3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied.

This paper describes the results of a research project aimed at the conceptual development of an identification system for emerging mycotoxins in European feed and food supply chains of wheat. Basic requirements for such a system were addressed, including the selection of indicators, locating information sources, development of underlying model, and investigation of stakeholders' needs. The selection and ranking of key indicators for identifying emerging mycotoxins was based on a literature review, followed by a structured expert judgment study. The expert study was based on the Delphi technique and used a panel of 43 European experts. The Delphi procedure resulted in a selected set of 12 key indicators for each of three relevant stages of the wheat chain (cultivation; transport and storage; processing). For wheat cultivation, these were: relative humidity/rainfall, crop rotation, temperature, tillage practice, water activity in the kernels, crop variety, harvest conditions, changes in fungal populations, fungicide use, plant health, regional infection pressure and food safety awareness. For the majority of the selected indicators, information sources were identified in specific European countries. However, most sources are not readily accessible and particular data is lacking. A theoretical concept for a model underlying the envisioned emerging mycotoxin identification system has been developed. The model links the key indicators and their information sources to aid and promote identification of emerging mycotoxins. It manages different types of information sources and levels of available information. The needs of various stakeholder groups regarding the system were investigated by means of two empirical elicitation sessions. The results showed that all stakeholders considered that such a system would be beneficial. One major challenge expected in establishing the system is stakeholder commitment to sharing data and information. This requires great efforts in improving communication and interaction between the key stakeholders.

Identification of Fusarium species by traditional methods requires specific skill and experience and there is an increased interest for new molecular methods for identification and quantification of Fusarium from food and feed samples. Real-time PCR with probe technology (Taqman®) can be used for the identification and quantification of several species of Fusarium from cereal grain samples. There are several critical steps that need to be considered when establishing a real-time PCR-based method for DNA quantification, including extraction of DNA from the samples. In this study, several DNA extraction methods were evaluated, including the DNeasy® Plant Mini Spin Columns (Qiagen), the Bio robot EZ1 (Qiagen) with the DNeasy® Blood and Tissue Kit (Qiagen), and the Fast-DNA® Spin Kit for Soil (Qbiogene). Parameters such as DNA quality and stability, PCR inhibitors, and PCR efficiency were investigated. Our results showed that all methods gave good PCR efficiency (above 90%) and DNA stability whereas the DNeasy® Plant Mini Spin Columns in combination with sonication gave the best results with respect to Fusarium DNA yield. The modified DNeasy® Plant Mini Spin protocol was used to analyse 31 wheat samples for the presence of F. graminearum and F. culmorum. The DNA level of F. graminearum could be correlated to the level of DON (r2 = 0.9) and ZEN (r2 = 0.6) whereas no correlation was found between F. culmorum and DON/ZEA. This shows that F. graminearum and not F. culmorum, was the main producer of DON in Swedish wheat during 2006.