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Agent-based models capture heterogeneity among individuals in a population and are widely used in studies of multi-cellular systems, disease, epidemics and demography to name a few. However, existing frameworks consider discrete time-step simulation or assume that agents' states only change as a result of discrete events. In this note, we present AgentBasedModeling$.$jl, a Julia package for simulating stochastic agent-based population models in continuous time. The tool allows to easily specify and simulate agents evolving through generic continuous-time jump-diffusions and interacting via continuous-rate processes. AgentBasedModeling$.$jl provides a powerful methodology for studying the effects of stochasticity on structured population dynamics., Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure

Inferring parameters of models of biochemical kinetics from single-cell data remains challenging because of the uncertainty arising from the intractability of the likelihood function of stochastic reaction networks. Such uncertainty falls beyond current error quantification measures, which focus on the effects of finite sample size and identifiability but lack theoretical guarantees when likelihood approximations are needed. Here, we propose an inference method for stochastic reaction networks with nonlinear and rational propensities at steady state that provides bounds on the parameters via convex optimisation over sets constrained by moment equations and moment matrices. Our approach takes observations from the stochastic reaction network and forms moment intervals, which are then used to constrain parameters through convex sets. The bounds on the parameters contain the true parameters under the condition that the moment intervals contain the true stationary moments, thus providing uncertainty quantification and error guarantees. Our approach does not need to predict moments and distributions for given parameters (i.e., it avoids solving or simulating the forward problem), and hence circumvents intractable likelihood computations or computationally expensive simulations. We demonstrate its use for uncertainty quantification, data integration and prediction of latent species statistics through synthetic data from common nonlinear biochemical models including the Schl\"ogl model, the toggle switch and post-transcriptional regulation.

Fractional killing in response to drugs is a hallmark of non-genetic cellular heterogeneity. Yet how individual lineages evade drug treatment, as observed in bacteria and cancer cells, is not quantitatively understood. We analyse a stochastic population model with age-dependent division and death rates and characterise the emergence of fractional killing as a stochastic phenomenon under constant and periodic drug environments. In constant environments, increasing cell cycle noise induces a phase transition from complete to fractional killing, while increasing death noise can induce the reverse transition. In periodic drug environments, we discover survival resonance phenomena that give rise to peaks in the survival probabilities at division or death times that are multiples of the environment duration not seen in unstructured populations.

Metabolic heterogeneity is widely recognised as the next challenge in our understanding of non-genetic variation. A growing body of evidence suggests that metabolic heterogeneity may result from the inherent stochasticity of intracellular events. However, metabolism has been traditionally viewed as a purely deterministic process, on the basis that highly abundant metabolites tend to filter out stochastic phenomena. Here we bridge this gap with a general method for prediction of metabolite distributions across single cells. By exploiting the separation of time scales between enzyme expression and enzyme kinetics, our method produces estimates for metabolite distributions without the lengthy stochastic simulations that would be typically required for large metabolic models. The metabolite distributions take the form of Gaussian mixture models that are directly computable from single-cell expression data and standard deterministic models for metabolic pathways. The proposed mixture models provide a systematic method to predict the impact of biochemical parameters on metabolite distributions. Our method lays the groundwork for identifying the molecular processes that shape metabolic heterogeneity and its functional implications in disease., Comment: 5 Figures, 3 Tables

Computing the stationary distributions of a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) involves solving a set of linear equations. In most cases of interest, the number of equations is infinite or too large, and the equations cannot be solved analytically or numerically. Several approximation schemes overcome this issue by truncating the state space to a manageable size. In this review, we first give a comprehensive theoretical account of the stationary distributions and their relation to the long-term behaviour of CTMCs that is readily accessible to non-experts and free of irreducibility assumptions made in standard texts. We then review truncation-based approximation schemes for CTMCs with infinite state spaces paying particular attention to the schemes' convergence and the errors they introduce, and we illustrate their performance with an example of a stochastic reaction network of relevance in biology and chemistry. We conclude by discussing computational trade-offs associated with error control and several open questions.

Phenotypic variation is a hallmark of cellular physiology. Metabolic heterogeneity, in particular, underpins single-cell phenomena such as microbial drug tolerance and growth variability. Much research has focussed on transcriptomic and proteomic heterogeneity, yet it remains unclear if such variation permeates to the metabolic state of a cell. Here we propose a stochastic model to show that complex forms of metabolic heterogeneity emerge from fluctuations in enzyme expression and catalysis. The analysis predicts clonal populations to split into two or more metabolically distinct subpopulations. We reveal mechanisms not seen in deterministic models, in which enzymes with unimodal expression distributions lead to metabolites with a bimodal or multimodal distribution across the population. Based on published data, the results suggest that metabolite heterogeneity may be more pervasive than previously thought. Our work casts light on links between gene expression and metabolism, and provides a theory to probe the sources of metabolite heterogeneity.

We study a class of countably-infinite-dimensional linear programs (CILPs) whose feasible sets are bounded subsets of appropriately defined spaces of measures. The optimal value, optimal points, and minimal points of these CILPs can be approximated by solving finite-dimensional linear programs. We show how to construct finite-dimensional programs that lead to approximations with easy-to-evaluate error bounds, and we prove that the errors converge to zero as the size of the finite-dimensional programs approaches that of the original problem. We discuss the use of our methods in the computation of the stationary distributions, occupation measures, and exit distributions of Markov~chains.

We introduce the exit time finite state projection (ETFSP) scheme, a truncation-based method that yields approximations to the exit distribution and occupation measure associated with the time of exit from a domain (i.e., the time of first passage to the complement of the domain) of time-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains. We prove that: (i) the computed approximations bound the measures from below; (ii) the total variation distances between the approximations and the measures decrease monotonically as states are added to the truncation; and (iii) the scheme converges, in the sense that, as the truncation tends to the entire state space, the total variation distances tend to zero. Furthermore, we give a computable bound on the total variation distance between the exit distribution and its approximation, and we delineate the cases in which the bound is sharp. We also revisit the related finite state projection scheme and give a comprehensive account of its theoretical properties. We demonstrate the use of the ETFSP scheme by applying it to two biological examples: the computation of the first passage time associated with the expression of a gene, and the fixation times of competing species subject to demographic noise.

The stochastic dynamics of biochemical networks are usually modelled with the chemical master equation (CME). The stationary distributions of CMEs are seldom solvable analytically, and numerical methods typically produce estimates with uncontrolled errors. Here, we introduce mathematical programming approaches that yield approximations of these distributions with computable error bounds which enable the verification of their accuracy. First, we use semidefinite programming to compute increasingly tighter upper and lower bounds on the moments of the stationary distributions for networks with rational propensities. Second, we use these moment bounds to formulate linear programs that yield convergent upper and lower bounds on the stationary distributions themselves, their marginals and stationary averages. The bounds obtained also provide a computational test for the uniqueness of the distribution. In the unique case, the bounds form an approximation of the stationary distribution with a computable bound on its error. In the non-unique case, our approach yields converging approximations of the ergodic distributions. We illustrate our methodology through several biochemical examples taken from the literature: Schl\"ogl's model for a chemical bifurcation, a two-dimensional toggle switch, a model for bursty gene expression, and a dimerisation model with multiple stationary distributions.

Simulation of biomolecular networks is now indispensable for studying biological systems, from small reaction networks to large ensembles of cells. Here we present a novel approach for stochastic simulation of networks embedded in the dynamic environment of the cell and its surroundings. We thus sample trajectories of the stochastic process described by the chemical master equation with time-varying propensities. A comparative analysis shows that existing approaches can either fail dramatically, or else can impose impractical computational burdens due to numerical integration of reaction propensities, especially when cell ensembles are studied. Here we introduce the Extrande method which, given a simulated time course of dynamic network inputs, provides a conditionally exact and several orders-of-magnitude faster simulation solution. The new approach makes it feasible to demonstrate, using decision-making by a large population of quorum sensing bacteria, that robustness to fluctuations from upstream signaling places strong constraints on the design of networks determining cell fate. Our approach has the potential to significantly advance both understanding of molecular systems biology and design of synthetic circuits., Comment: Download source code for SI information

The stochastic nature of chemical reactions involving randomly fluctuating population sizes has lead to a growing research interest in discrete-state stochastic models and their analysis. A widely-used approach is the description of the temporal evolution of the system in terms of a chemical master equation (CME). In this paper we study two approaches for approximating the underlying probability distributions of the CME. The first approach is based on an integration of the statistical moments and the reconstruction of the distribution based on the maximum entropy principle. The second approach relies on an analytical approximation of the probability distribution of the CME using the system size expansion, considering higher-order terms than the linear noise approximation. We consider gene expression networks with unimodal and multimodal protein distributions to compare the accuracy of the two approaches. We find that both methods provide accurate approximations to the distributions of the CME while having different benefits and limitations in applications., Comment: 28 pages, 6 figures

Master equations are common descriptions of mesoscopic systems. Analytical solutions to these equations can rarely be obtained. We here derive an analytical approximation of the time-dependent probability distribution of the master equation using orthogonal polynomials. The solution is given in two alternative formulations: a series with continuous and a series with discrete support both of which can be systematically truncated. While both approximations satisfy the system size expansion of the master equation, the continuous distribution approximations become increasingly negative and tend to oscillations with increasing truncation order. In contrast, the discrete approximations rapidly converge to the underlying non-Gaussian distributions. The theory is shown to lead to particularly simple analytical expressions for the probability distributions of molecule numbers in metabolic reactions and gene expression systems., Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures

Few analytical methods exist for quantitative studies of large fluctuations in stochastic systems. In this article, we develop a simple diagrammatic approach to the Chemical Master Equation that allows us to calculate multi-time correlation functions which are accurate to a any desired order in van Kampen's system size expansion. Specifically, we present a set of Feynman rules from which this diagrammatic perturbation expansion can be constructed algorithmically. We then apply the methodology to derive in closed form the leading order corrections to the linear noise approximation of the intrinsic noise power spectrum for general biochemical reaction networks. Finally, we illustrate our results by describing noise-induced oscillations in the Brusselator reaction scheme which are not captured by the common linear noise approximation., Comment: 25 pages, 5 figures, under review, Journal of Physics A

The linear noise approximation (LNA) offers a simple means by which one can study intrinsic noise in monostable biochemical networks. Using simple physical arguments, we have recently introduced the slow-scale LNA (ssLNA) which is a reduced version of the LNA under conditions of timescale separation. In this paper, we present the first rigorous derivation of the ssLNA using the projection operator technique and show that the ssLNA follows uniquely from the standard LNA under the same conditions of timescale separation as those required for the deterministic quasi-steady state approximation. We also show that the large molecule number limit of several common stochastic model reduction techniques under timescale separation conditions constitutes a special case of the ssLNA., Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, submitted to Physical Review E; see also BMC Systems Biology 6, 39 (2012)

The linear noise approximation is commonly used to obtain intrinsic noise statistics for biochemical networks. These estimates are accurate for networks with large numbers of molecules. However it is well known that many biochemical networks are characterized by at least one species with a small number of molecules. We here describe version 0.3 of the software intrinsic Noise Analyzer (iNA) which allows for accurate computation of noise statistics over wide ranges of molecule numbers. This is achieved by calculating the next order corrections to the linear noise approximation's estimates of variance and covariance of concentration fluctuations. The efficiency of the methods is significantly improved by automated just-in-time compilation using the LLVM framework leading to a fluctuation analysis which typically outperforms that obtained by means of exact stochastic simulations. iNA is hence particularly well suited for the needs of the computational biology community., Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, conference proceeding IEEE International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedicine (BIBM) 2012

The application of the quasi-steady-state approximation to the Michaelis-Menten reaction embedded in large open chemical reaction networks is a popular model reduction technique in deterministic and stochastic simulations of biochemical reactions inside cells. It is frequently assumed that the predictions of the reduced master equations obtained using the stochastic quasi-steady-state approach are in very good agreement with the predictions of the full master equations, provided the conditions for the validity of the deterministic quasi-steady-state approximation are fulfilled. We here use the linear-noise approximation to show that this assumption is not generally justified for the Michaelis-Menten reaction with substrate input, the simplest example of an open embedded enzyme reaction. The reduced master equation approach is found to considerably overestimate the size of intrinsic noise at low copy numbers of molecules. A simple formula is obtained for the relative error between the predictions of the reduced and full master equations for the variance of the substrate concentration fluctuations. The maximum error is reached when modeling moderately or highly efficient enzymes, in which case the error is approximately 30%. The theoretical predictions are validated by stochastic simulations using experimental parameter values for enzymes involved in proteolysis, gluconeogenesis and fermentation., Comment: Main text (5 pages, 1 figure) and Supplementary information (2 pages), accepted by J. Chem. Phys. (Communication)

Chemical reactions inside cells occur in compartment volumes in the range of atto- to femtolitres. Physiological concentrations realized in such small volumes imply low copy numbers of interacting molecules with the consequence of considerable fluctuations in the concentrations. In contrast, rate equation models are based on the implicit assumption of infinitely large numbers of interacting molecules, or equivalently, that reactions occur in infinite volumes at constant macroscopic concentrations. In this article we compute the finite-volume corrections (or equivalently the finite copy number corrections) to the solutions of the rate equations for chemical reaction networks composed of arbitrarily large numbers of enzyme-catalyzed reactions which are confined inside a small sub-cellular compartment. This is achieved by applying a mesoscopic version of the quasi-steady state assumption to the exact Fokker-Planck equation associated with the Poisson Representation of the chemical master equation. The procedure yields impressively simple and compact expressions for the finite-volume corrections. We prove that the predictions of the rate equations will always underestimate the actual steady-state substrate concentrations for an enzyme-reaction network confined in a small volume. In particular we show that the finite-volume corrections increase with decreasing sub-cellular volume, decreasing Michaelis-Menten constants and increasing enzyme saturation. The magnitude of the corrections depends sensitively on the topology of the network. The predictions of the theory are shown to be in excellent agreement with stochastic simulations for two types of networks typically associated with protein methylation and metabolism., Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures; published in The Journal of Chemical Physics

The chemical Fokker-Planck equation and the corresponding chemical Langevin equation are commonly used approximations of the chemical master equation. These equations are derived from an uncontrolled, second-order truncation of the Kramers-Moyal expansion of the chemical master equation and hence their accuracy remains to be clarified. We use the system-size expansion to show that chemical Fokker-Planck estimates of the mean concentrations and of the variance of the concentration fluctuations about the mean are accurate to order $\Omega^{-3/2}$ for reaction systems which do not obey detailed balance and at least accurate to order $\Omega^{-2}$ for systems obeying detailed balance, where $\Omega$ is the characteristic size of the system. Hence the chemical Fokker-Planck equation turns out to be more accurate than the linear-noise approximation of the chemical master equation (the linear Fokker-Planck equation) which leads to mean concentration estimates accurate to order $\Omega^{-1/2}$ and variance estimates accurate to order $\Omega^{-3/2}$. This higher accuracy is particularly conspicuous for chemical systems realized in small volumes such as biochemical reactions inside cells. A formula is also obtained for the approximate size of the relative errors in the concentration and variance predictions of the chemical Fokker-Planck equation, where the relative error is defined as the difference between the predictions of the chemical Fokker-Planck equation and the master equation divided by the prediction of the master equation. For dimerization and enzyme-catalyzed reactions, the errors are typically less than few percent even when the steady-state is characterized by merely few tens of molecules., Comment: 39 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in J. Chem. Phys