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We explore how the hub-and-spoke system in the international freight transportation network contributes to the global shrinkage of space. The friction in long-distance trade routes varies by the location of shippers and nodal characteristics of traversed ports, and is mitigated by the quality of scale economies driven by the hub-and-spoke distribution system along the trajectory of the logistic process. In order to confirm the shrinkage of space brought about by the hub-and-spoke shipping economies through transshipment routes via hub ports, we examine disaggregated cross-Atlantic cargo shipping trajectory data from Europe to the U.S. recorded both on landside and seaside with a discrete choice model. The results present that hub-and-spoke shipping economies arise with the scales of landside and maritime port operations and with shipping line diversity. Generally, they are found to offset distance friction that occurs along landside and maritime shipping voyages, but hub-and-spoke shipping economies arise differently depending on how hub-and-spoke configurations are set. They mainly stem from larger scale of ports’ operation and more diverse shipping lines serving the final port of export. The hub-and-spoke system is confirmed as a main driver of global shrinkage of space in terms of long-distance commercial activities.

Background Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). Methods and findings The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. Conclusions COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year., Author(s): Sung-mok Jung 1, Sara L. Loo 2, Emily Howerton 3, Lucie Contamin 4, Claire P. Smith 2, Erica C. Carcelén 2, Katie Yan 3, Samantha J. Bents 5, John [...]

We propose a novel micro-level and spatially explicit agent-based modeling framework dubbed TranEpiSim to model the spread of infectious diseases through micromobility systems and a baseline population in an urban area. A case study is conducted on the Chicago City public bikesharing system to demonstrate the ability of the model to isolate the role of transportation as a vector and assess the efficacy of the model. Results show that the emergence of viral disease through micromobility transportation is possible, but the overall impact of the system on the disease dynamics in a worst-case scenario, especially with the current size of the system, is rather small. The proposed model offers a comprehensive approach to estimate the impact of micromobility (and more generally, specific transportation modes) on disease spread by considering infections that occur both at destinations and in/on transportation vehicles and infrastructure. The spatial pattern for the risk of exposure shows a higher risk in the central business district and north of it, where most of the shared bike transportation occurs. Because of its intrinsic features, the proposed framework is uniquely placed to assess the efficacy of interventions and make trade-offs between competing scenarios when dealing with epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a process, containerization in Africa is still on-going. In the last decades, a number of new port projects have emerged in parallel with the reorganization of services by shipping companies. To reflect these changes, this paper studies several questions on the geographic differentiation of maritime connectivities across the continent as well as on the longitudinal trends in maritime connectivities in relation to evolving economic, trade and logistical contexts. To this end, we propose a synthetic visualization of the country-level containerized links using the Liner Shipping Bilateral Connectivity Indicator (LSBCI). The resulting graph, obtained through Multidimensional Scaling (MDS), shows that West Africa and East Africa appear as relatively separated subsystems, mediated by several countries in the Northern and the Southern parts of Africa. Between 2006 and 2016, West Africa, initially tied to Europe and America, is increasingly tied to Asia. Our results show major improvements in the maritime connectivity of Morocco, Djibouti and several West African ports. Conversely, most of mainland East African countries stagnate or decline. Connectivities have not converged across the continent. In some cases changes in maritime connectivity mostly result from variations in vessel size. We explore a method to identify these situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore how the hub-and-spoke system in the international freight transportation network contributes to the global shrinkage of space. The friction in long-distance trade routes varies by the location of shippers and nodal characteristics of traversed ports, and is mitigated by the quality of scale economies driven by the hub-and-spoke distribution system along the trajectory of the logistic process. In order to confirm the shrinkage of space brought about by the hub-and-spoke shipping economies through transshipment routes via hub ports, we examine disaggregated cross-Atlantic cargo shipping trajectory data from Europe to the U.S. recorded both on landside and seaside with a discrete choice model. The results present that hub-and-spoke shipping economies arise with the scales of landside and maritime port operations and with shipping line diversity. Generally, they are found to offset distance friction that occurs along landside and maritime shipping voyages, but hub-and-spoke shipping economies arise differently depending on how hub-and-spoke configurations are set. They mainly stem from larger scale of ports' operation and more diverse shipping lines serving the final port of export. The hub-and-spoke system is confirmed as a main driver of global shrinkage of space in terms of long-distance commercial activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]