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1. Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

Author

Frieler, Katja, Volkholz, Jan, Lange, Stefan, Schewe, Jacob, Mengel, Matthias, del Rocío Rivas López, María, Otto, Christian, Reyer, Christopher PO, Karger, Dirk Nikolaus, Malle, Johanna T, Treu, Simon, Menz, Christoph, Blanchard, Julia L, Harrison, Cheryl S, Petrik, Colleen M, Eddy, Tyler D, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Novaglio, Camilla, Rousseau, Yannick, Watson, Reg A, Stock, Charles, Liu, Xiao, Heneghan, Ryan, Tittensor, Derek, Maury, Olivier, Büchner, Matthias, Vogt, Thomas, Wang, Tingting, Sun, Fubao, Sauer, Inga J, Koch, Johannes, Vanderkelen, Inne, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Müller, Christoph, Rabin, Sam, Klar, Jochen, del Valle, Iliusi D Vega, Lasslop, Gitta, Chadburn, Sarah, Burke, Eleanor, Gallego-Sala, Angela, Smith, Noah, Chang, Jinfeng, Hantson, Stijn, Burton, Chantelle, Gädeke, Anne, Li, Fang, Gosling, Simon N, Schmied, Hannes Müller, Hattermann, Fred, Wang, Jida, Yao, Fangfang, Hickler, Thomas, Marcé, Rafael, Pierson, Don, Thiery, Wim, Mercado-Bettín, Daniel, Ladwig, Robert, Ayala-Zamora, Ana Isabel, Forrest, Matthew, and Bechtold, Michel

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Action, Earth sciences
Abstract

Abstract. This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.

Published
2024

4. Need for harmonized long-term multi-lake monitoring of African Great Lakes

Author

Plisnier, Pierre-Denis, Kayanda, Robert, MacIntyre, Sally, Obiero, Kevin, Okello, William, Vodacek, Anthony, Cocquyt, Christine, Abegaz, Hussein, Achieng, Alfred, Akonkwa, Balagizi, Albrecht, Christian, Balagizi, Charles, Barasa, James, Bashonga, Rafiki Abel, Bishobibiri, Alexis Bashonga, Bootsma, Harvey, Borges, Alberto V, Chavula, Geoffrey, Dadi, Tallent, De Keyzer, Els LR, Doran, Patrick J, Gabagambi, Nestory, Gatare, Robert, Gemmell, Andrew, Getahun, Abebe, Haambiya, Lloyd H, Higgins, Scott N, Hyangya, Beni L, Irvine, Ken, Isumbisho, Mwapu, Jonasse, Carlos, Katongo, Cyprian, Katsev, Sergei, Keyombe, James, Kimirei, Ismael, Kisekelwa, Tchalondawa, Kishe, Mary, Koding, Simon Otoung A, Kolding, Jeppe, Kraemer, Benjamin M, Limbu, Peter, Lomodei, Evans, Mahongo, Shigalla B, Malala, John, Mbabazi, Stella, Masilya, Pascal M, McCandlessz, Matt, Medard, Modesta, Ajode, Zephaniah Migeni, Mrosso, Hillary D, Mudakikwa, Eric R, Mulimbwa, N'sibula, Mushagalusa, Deo, Muvundja, Fabrice A, Nankabirwa, Angela, Nahimana, David, Ngatunga, Benjamin P, Ngochera, Maxon, Nicholson, Sharon, Nshombo, Muderhwa, Ntakimazi, Gaspard, Nyamweya, Chrispine, Nyeko, Joyceikwaput, Olago, Daniel, Olbamo, Tekle, O'Reilly, Catherine M, Pasche, Natacha, Phiri, Harris, Raasakka, Nina, Salyani, Anham, Sibomana, Claver, Silsbe, Greg M, Smith, Stephanie, Sterner, Robert W, Thiery, Wim, Tuyisenge, Janviere, Van der Knaap, Martin, Van Steenberge, Maarten, van Zwieten, Paul AM, Verheyen, Erik, Wakjira, Mulugeta, Walakira, John, Wembo, Oscar Ndeo, and Lawrence, Theodore

Subjects
Fisheries, Limnology, Pollution, Biodiversity, Climate change, Erosion, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Environmental Science and Management, Environmental Engineering, Ecology, Environmental management
Published
2023

7. Irrigation in the Earth system

Author

McDermid, Sonali, Nocco, Mallika, Lawston-Parker, Patricia, Keune, Jessica, Pokhrel, Yadu, Jain, Meha, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Brocca, Luca, Massari, Christian, Jones, Andrew D., Vahmani, Pouya, Thiery, Wim, Yao, Yi, Bell, Andrew, Chen, Liang, Dorigo, Wouter, Hanasaki, Naota, Jasechko, Scott, Lo, Min-Hui, Mahmood, Rezaul, Mishra, Vimal, Mueller, Nathaniel D., Niyogi, Dev, Rabin, Sam S., Sloat, Lindsey, Wada, Yoshihide, Zappa, Luca, Chen, Fei, Cook, Benjamin I., Kim, Hyungjun, Lombardozzi, Danica, Polcher, Jan, Ryu, Dongryeol, Santanello, Joe, Satoh, Yusuke, Seneviratne, Sonia, Singh, Deepti, and Yokohata, Tokuta

Published
2023
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9. Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Author

Klitting, Raphaëlle, Kafetzopoulou, Liana E, Thiery, Wim, Dudas, Gytis, Gryseels, Sophie, Kotamarthi, Anjali, Vrancken, Bram, Gangavarapu, Karthik, Momoh, Mambu, Sandi, John Demby, Goba, Augustine, Alhasan, Foday, Grant, Donald S, Okogbenin, Sylvanus, Ogbaini-Emovo, Ephraim, Garry, Robert F, Smither, Allison R, Zeller, Mark, Pauthner, Matthias G, McGraw, Michelle, Hughes, Laura D, Duraffour, Sophie, Günther, Stephan, Suchard, Marc A, Lemey, Philippe, Andersen, Kristian G, and Dellicour, Simon

Subjects
Infectious Diseases, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Rare Diseases, Aetiology, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, Infection, Life on Land, Animals, Humans, Lassa Fever, Lassa virus, Phylogeography, Risk Factors, Rodentia
Abstract

Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades.

Published
2022

11. Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

Author

Woolway, R Iestyn, Sharma, Sapna, Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A, Debolskiy, Andrey, Golub, Malgorzata, Mercado-Bettín, Daniel, Perroud, Marjorie, Stepanenko, Victor, Tan, Zeli, Grant, Luke, Ladwig, Robert, Mesman, Jorrit, Moore, Tadhg N, Shatwell, Tom, Vanderkelen, Inne, Austin, Jay A, DeGasperi, Curtis L, Dokulil, Martin, La Fuente, Sofia, Mackay, Eleanor B, Schladow, S Geoffrey, Watanabe, Shohei, Marcé, Rafael, Pierson, Don C, Thiery, Wim, and Jennings, Eleanor

Subjects
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, Biological Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Climate Action
Abstract

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

Published
2021

12. Global data set of long-term summertime vertical temperature profiles in 153 lakes

Author

Pilla, Rachel M, Mette, Elizabeth M, Williamson, Craig E, Adamovich, Boris V, Adrian, Rita, Anneville, Orlane, Balseiro, Esteban, Ban, Syuhei, Chandra, Sudeep, Colom-Montero, William, Devlin, Shawn P, Dix, Margaret A, Dokulil, Martin T, Feldsine, Natalie A, Feuchtmayr, Heidrun, Fogarty, Natalie K, Gaiser, Evelyn E, Girdner, Scott F, González, María J, Hambright, K David, Hamilton, David P, Havens, Karl, Hessen, Dag O, Hetzenauer, Harald, Higgins, Scott N, Huttula, Timo H, Huuskonen, Hannu, Isles, Peter DF, Joehnk, Klaus D, Keller, Wendel Bill, Klug, Jen, Knoll, Lesley B, Korhonen, Johanna, Korovchinsky, Nikolai M, Köster, Oliver, Kraemer, Benjamin M, Leavitt, Peter R, Leoni, Barbara, Lepori, Fabio, Lepskaya, Ekaterina V, Lottig, Noah R, Luger, Martin S, Maberly, Stephen C, MacIntyre, Sally, McBride, Chris, McIntyre, Peter, Melles, Stephanie J, Modenutti, Beatriz, Müller-Navarra, Dörthe C, Pacholski, Laura, Paterson, Andrew M, Pierson, Don C, Pislegina, Helen V, Plisnier, Pierre-Denis, Richardson, David C, Rimmer, Alon, Rogora, Michela, Rogozin, Denis Y, Rusak, James A, Rusanovskaya, Olga O, Sadro, Steve, Salmaso, Nico, Saros, Jasmine E, Sarvala, Jouko, Saulnier-Talbot, Émilie, Schindler, Daniel E, Shimaraeva, Svetlana V, Silow, Eugene A, Sitoki, Lewis M, Sommaruga, Ruben, Straile, Dietmar, Strock, Kristin E, Swain, Hilary, Tallant, Jason M, Thiery, Wim, Timofeyev, Maxim A, Tolomeev, Alexander P, Tominaga, Koji, Vanni, Michael J, Verburg, Piet, Vinebrooke, Rolf D, Wanzenböck, Josef, Weathers, Kathleen, Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A, Zadereev, Egor S, and Zhukova, Tatyana V

Abstract

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors have led to long-term changes in the thermal structure, including surface temperatures, deepwater temperatures, and vertical thermal gradients, in many lakes around the world. Though many studies highlight warming of surface water temperatures in lakes worldwide, less is known about long-term trends in full vertical thermal structure and deepwater temperatures, which have been changing less consistently in both direction and magnitude. Here, we present a globally-expansive data set of summertime in-situ vertical temperature profiles from 153 lakes, with one time series beginning as early as 1894. We also compiled lake geographic, morphometric, and water quality variables that can influence vertical thermal structure through a variety of potential mechanisms in these lakes. These long-term time series of vertical temperature profiles and corresponding lake characteristics serve as valuable data to help understand changes and drivers of lake thermal structure in a time of rapid global and ecological change.

Published
2021

13. Author Correction: Irrigation in the Earth system

Author

McDermid, Sonali, Nocco, Mallika, Lawston-Parker, Patricia, Keune, Jessica, Pokhrel, Yadu, Jain, Meha, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Brocca, Luca, Massari, Christian, Jones, Andrew D., Vahmani, Pouya, Thiery, Wim, Yao, Yi, Bell, Andrew, Chen, Liang, Dorigo, Wouter, Hanasaki, Naota, Jasechko, Scott, Lo, Min-Hui, Mahmood, Rezaul, Mishra, Vimal, Mueller, Nathaniel D., Niyogi, Dev, Rabin, Sam S., Sloat, Lindsey, Wada, Yoshihide, Zappa, Luca, Chen, Fei, Cook, Benjamin I., Kim, Hyungjun, Lombardozzi, Danica, Polcher, Jan, Ryu, Dongryeol, Santanello, Joe, Satoh, Yusuke, Seneviratne, Sonia, Singh, Deepti, and Yokohata, Tokuta

Published
2023
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14. Representation of precipitation and top-of-atmosphere radiation in a multi-model convection-permitting ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa)

Author

Lipzig, Nicole P. M. van, Walle, Jonas Van de, Belušić, Danijel, Berthou, Ségolène, Coppola, Erika, Demuzere, Matthias, Fink, Andreas H., Finney, Declan L., Glazer, Russell, Ludwig, Patrick, Marsham, John H., Nikulin, Grigory, Pinto, Joaquim G., Rowell, David P., Wu, Minchao, and Thiery, Wim

Published
2022
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17. Deeper waters are changing less consistently than surface waters in a global analysis of 102 lakes

Author

Pilla, Rachel M, Williamson, Craig E, Adamovich, Boris V, Adrian, Rita, Anneville, Orlane, Chandra, Sudeep, Colom-Montero, William, Devlin, Shawn P, Dix, Margaret A, Dokulil, Martin T, Gaiser, Evelyn E, Girdner, Scott F, Hambright, K David, Hamilton, David P, Havens, Karl, Hessen, Dag O, Higgins, Scott N, Huttula, Timo H, Huuskonen, Hannu, Isles, Peter DF, Joehnk, Klaus D, Jones, Ian D, Keller, Wendel Bill, Knoll, Lesley B, Korhonen, Johanna, Kraemer, Benjamin M, Leavitt, Peter R, Lepori, Fabio, Luger, Martin S, Maberly, Stephen C, Melack, John M, Melles, Stephanie J, Müller-Navarra, Dörthe C, Pierson, Don C, Pislegina, Helen V, Plisnier, Pierre-Denis, Richardson, David C, Rimmer, Alon, Rogora, Michela, Rusak, James A, Sadro, Steven, Salmaso, Nico, Saros, Jasmine E, Saulnier-Talbot, Émilie, Schindler, Daniel E, Schmid, Martin, Shimaraeva, Svetlana V, Silow, Eugene A, Sitoki, Lewis M, Sommaruga, Ruben, Straile, Dietmar, Strock, Kristin E, Thiery, Wim, Timofeyev, Maxim A, Verburg, Piet, Vinebrooke, Rolf D, Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A, and Zadereev, Egor

Abstract

Globally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970-2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade-1, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m-3 decade-1). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade-1), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from - 0.68 °C decade-1 to + 0.65 °C decade-1. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.

Published
2020

21. Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Author

Grant, Luke, Vanderkelen, Inne, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Tan, Zeli, Perroud, Marjorie, Stepanenko, Victor M., Debolskiy, Andrey V., Droppers, Bram, Janssen, Annette B. G., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Choulga, Margarita, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, Kirillin, Georgiy, Schewe, Jacob, Zhao, Fang, del Valle, Iliusi Vega, Golub, Malgorzata, Pierson, Don, Marcé, Rafael, Seneviratne, Sonia I., and Thiery, Wim

Published
2021
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26. Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming

Author

Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A, Mackay, Murray, Stockwell, Jason D, Thiery, Wim, Grossart, Hans-Peter, Augusto-Silva, Pétala B, Baulch, Helen M, de Eyto, Elvira, Hejzlar, Josef, Kangur, Külli, Kirillin, Georgiy, Pierson, Don C, Rusak, James A, Sadro, Steven, and Woolway, R Iestyn

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Action
Abstract

Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (Tw-Ta) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (QH). If QH is directed upward, corresponding to positive Tw-Ta, it can enhance CO2 and CH4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative Tw-Ta across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward QH), with Tw-Ta becoming increasingly negative with increasing Ta. Further examination of Tw-Ta using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that Tw-Ta is linearly related to Ta. Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative Tw-Ta with increasing annual mean Ta since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative Tw-Ta, thereby reducing CO2 and CH4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere.

Published
2017

27. Widespread deoxygenation of temperate lakes

Author

Jane, Stephen F., Hansen, Gretchen J. A., Kraemer, Benjamin M., Leavitt, Peter R., Mincer, Joshua L., North, Rebecca L., Pilla, Rachel M., Stetler, Jonathan T., Williamson, Craig E., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Arvola, Lauri, Chandra, Sudeep, DeGasperi, Curtis L., Diemer, Laura, Dunalska, Julita, Erina, Oxana, Flaim, Giovanna, Grossart, Hans-Peter, Hambright, K. David, Hein, Catherine, Hejzlar, Josef, Janus, Lorraine L., Jenny, Jean-Philippe, Jones, John R., Knoll, Lesley B., Leoni, Barbara, Mackay, Eleanor, Matsuzaki, Shin-Ichiro S., McBride, Chris, Müller-Navarra, Dörthe C., Paterson, Andrew M., Pierson, Don, Rogora, Michela, Rusak, James A., Sadro, Steven, Saulnier-Talbot, Emilie, Schmid, Martin, Sommaruga, Ruben, Thiery, Wim, Verburg, Piet, Weathers, Kathleen C., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Yokota, Kiyoko, and Rose, Kevin C.

Published
2021
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28. Climate change drives widespread shifts in lake thermal habitat

Author

Kraemer, Benjamin M., Pilla, Rachel M., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Anneville, Orlane, Ban, Syuhei, Colom-Montero, William, Devlin, Shawn P., Dokulil, Martin T., Gaiser, Evelyn E., Hambright, K. David, Hessen, Dag O., Higgins, Scott N., Jöhnk, Klaus D., Keller, Wendel, Knoll, Lesley B., Leavitt, Peter R., Lepori, Fabio, Luger, Martin S., Maberly, Stephen C., Müller-Navarra, Dörthe C., Paterson, Andrew M., Pierson, Donald C., Richardson, David C., Rogora, Michela, Rusak, James A., Sadro, Steven, Salmaso, Nico, Schmid, Martin, Silow, Eugene A., Sommaruga, Ruben, Stelzer, Julio A. A., Straile, Dietmar, Thiery, Wim, Timofeyev, Maxim A., Verburg, Piet, Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., and Adrian, Rita

Published
2021
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31. Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change

Author

Pokhrel, Yadu, Felfelani, Farshid, Satoh, Yusuke, Boulange, Julien, Burek, Peter, Gädeke, Anne, Gerten, Dieter, Gosling, Simon N., Grillakis, Manolis, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Hanasaki, Naota, Kim, Hyungjun, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Liu, Junguo, Papadimitriou, Lamprini, Schewe, Jacob, Müller Schmied, Hannes, Stacke, Tobias, Telteu, Camelia-Eliza, Thiery, Wim, Veldkamp, Ted, Zhao, Fang, and Wada, Yoshihide

Published
2021
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32. Bridging the gap: a new module for human water use in the Community Earth System Model version 2.2.1.

Author

Taranu, Sabin I., Lawrence, David M., Wada, Yoshihide, Tang, Ting, Kluzek, Erik, Rabin, Sam, Yao, Yi, Hertog, Steven J. De, Vanderkelen, Inne, and Thiery, Wim

Subjects
WATER use, WATER shortages, WATER management, WATER withdrawals, EARTH (Planet), SUPPLY & demand
Abstract

Water scarcity is often triggered by shifting climate patterns as well as rising water usage, yet state-of-the-art Earth system models typically do not represent human water demand. Here we present an enhancement to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and its land (CLM) and river (MOSART) components by introducing sectoral water abstractions. The new module enables a better understanding of water demand and supply dynamics across various sectors, including domestic, livestock, thermoelectric, manufacturing, mining, and irrigation. The module conserves water by integrating abstractions from the land component with river component flows, and dynamically calculates daily water scarcity based on local demand and supply. Through land-only simulations spanning 1971–2010, we verify our model against known water scarcity hotspots, historical global water withdrawal trends, and regional variations in water use. Our findings reaffirm the role of irrigation in modulating local surface energy fluxes, while emphasizing the importance of including all sectors for water scarcity assessment capabilities. While the model captures global patterns, it also discerns regional nuances, expanding on the conventional focus on irrigation withdrawals in Earth system models (ESMs). Despite its advancements, the model's limitations, such as its exclusive focus on river water abstractions, highlight areas for potential future refinement. This research paves the way for a more holistic representation of human-water interactions in ESMs, aiming to inform sustainable water management decisions in an evolving global landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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34. Effects of idealised land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycle

Author

De Hertog, Steven J., primary, Lopez Fabara, Carmen E., additional, van der Ent, Ruud, additional, Keune, Jessica, additional, Miralles, Diego G., additional, Portmann, Raphael, additional, Schemm, Sebastian, additional, Havermann, Felix, additional, Guo, Suqi, additional, Luo, Fei, additional, Manola, Iris, additional, Lejeune, Quentin, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, and Thiery, Wim, additional

Published
2023
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37. Burning embers: towards more transparent and robust climate-change risk assessments

Author

Zommers, Zinta, Marbaix, Philippe, Fischlin, Andreas, Ibrahim, Zelina Z., Grant, Sean, Magnan, Alexandre K., Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Howden, Mark, Calvin, Katherine, Warner, Koko, Thiery, Wim, Sebesvari, Zita, Davin, Edouard L., Evans, Jason P., Rosenzweig, Cynthia, O’Neill, Brian C., Patwardhan, Anand, Warren, Rachel, van Aalst, Maarten K., and Hulbert, Margot

Published
2020
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40. A typology of compound weather and climate events

Author

Zscheischler, Jakob, Martius, Olivia, Westra, Seth, Bevacqua, Emanuele, Raymond, Colin, Horton, Radley M., van den Hurk, Bart, AghaKouchak, Amir, Jézéquel, Aglaé, Mahecha, Miguel D., Maraun, Douglas, Ramos, Alexandre M., Ridder, Nina N., Thiery, Wim, and Vignotto, Edoardo

Published
2020
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42. Towards more predictive and interdisciplinary climate change ecosystem experiments

Author

Rineau, Francois, Malina, Robert, Beenaerts, Natalie, Arnauts, Natascha, Bardgett, Richard D., Berg, Matty P., Boerema, Annelies, Bruckers, Liesbeth, Clerinx, Jan, Davin, Edouard L., De Boeck, Hans J., De Dobbelaer, Tom, Dondini, Marta, De Laender, Frederik, Ellers, Jacintha, Franken, Oscar, Gilbert, Lucy, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Janssens, Ivan A., Johnson, David, Lizin, Sebastien, Longdoz, Bernard, Meire, Patrick, Meremans, Dominique, Milbau, Ann, Moretti, Michele, Nijs, Ivan, Nobel, Anne, Pop, Iuliu Sorin, Puetz, Thomas, Reyns, Wouter, Roy, Jacques, Schuetz, Jochen, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Smith, Pete, Solmi, Francesca, Staes, Jan, Thiery, Wim, Thijs, Sofie, Vanderkelen, Inne, Van Landuyt, Wouter, Verbruggen, Erik, Witters, Nele, Zscheischler, Jakob, and Vangronsveld, Jaco

Published
2019
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43. The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa.

Author

Muheki, Derrick, Deijns, Axel A. J., Bevacqua, Emanuele, Messori, Gabriele, Zscheischler, Jakob, and Thiery, Wim

Subjects
CLIMATE extremes, WILDFIRES, HEAT waves (Meteorology), TROPICAL cyclones, DROUGHTS, WILDFIRE prevention, FLOODS
Abstract

Co-occurring extreme climate events exacerbate adverse impacts on humans, the economy, and the environment relative to extremes occurring in isolation. While changes in the frequency of individual extreme events have been researched extensively, changes in their interactions, dependence, and joint occurrence have received far less attention, particularly in the East African region. Here, we analyse the joint occurrence of pairs of the following extremes within the same location and calendar year over East Africa: river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires and tropical cyclones. We analyse their co-occurrence on a yearly timescale because some of the climate extremes we consider play out over timescales up to several months. We use bias-adjusted impact simulations under past and future climate conditions from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). We find an increase in the area affected by pairs of these extreme events, with the strongest increases for joint heatwaves and wildfires (+940% by the end of the century under RCP6.0 relative to present day), followed by river floods and heatwaves (+900%) and river floods and wildfires (+250%). The projected increase in joint occurrences typically outweighs historical increases even under an aggressive mitigation scenario (RCP2.6). We illustrate that the changes in the joint occurrences are often driven by increases in the probability of one of the events within the pairs, for instance heatwaves. The most affected locations in the East Africa region by these co-occurring events are areas close to the River Nile and parts of the Congo basin. Our results overall highlight that co-occurring extremes will become the norm rather than the exception in East Africa, even under low-end warming scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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44. Effects of idealized land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycle.

Author

De Hertog, Steven J., Lopez-Fabara, Carmen E., van der Ent, Ruud, Keune, Jessica, Miralles, Diego G., Portmann, Raphael, Schemm, Sebastian, Havermann, Felix, Guo, Suqi, Luo, Fei, Manola, Iris, Lejeune, Quentin, Pongratz, Julia, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Seneviratne, Sonia I., and Thiery, Wim

Subjects
LAND cover, HYDROLOGIC cycle, HUMIDITY, LAND management, ATMOSPHERIC transport
Abstract

Land cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) play an important role in achieving low-end warming scenarios through land-based mitigation. However, their effects on moisture fluxes and recycling remain uncertain, although they have important implications for the future viability of such strategies. Here, we analyse the impact of idealized LCLMC scenarios on atmospheric moisture transport in three different Earth system model (ESMs): the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). The LCLMC scenarios comprise of a full cropland world, a fully afforested world, and a cropland world with unlimited irrigation expansion. The effects of these LCLMC in the different ESMs are analysed for precipitation, evaporation, and vertically integrated moisture flux convergence to understand the LCLMC-induced changes in the atmospheric moisture cycle. Then, a moisture tracking algorithm is applied to assess the effects of LCLMC on moisture recycling at the local (grid cell level) and the global scale (continental moisture recycling). By applying a moisture tracking algorithm on fully coupled ESM simulations we are able to quantify the complete effects of LCLMC on moisture recycling (including circulation changes), which are generally not considered in moisture recycling studies. Our results indicate that cropland expansion is generally causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation expansion generally cause wetting and increased local moisture recycling. However, the strength of this effect varies across ESMs and shows a large dependency on the dominant driver. Some ESMs show a dominance of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes while other ESMs show a dominance of local to regional changes in the atmospheric water cycle only within the vicinity of the LCLMC. Overall, these results corroborate that LCLMC can induce substantial effects on the atmospheric water cycle and moisture recycling, both through local effects and changes in atmospheric circulation. However, more research is needed to constrain the uncertainty of these effects within ESMs to better inform future land-based mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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45. Combined impacts of climate and land-use change on future water resources in Africa.

Author

Chawanda, Celray James, Nkwasa, Albert, Thiery, Wim, and van Griensven, Ann

Subjects
WATER supply, LAND cover, CLIMATE change models, GREENHOUSE gases, EFFECT of human beings on climate change, STREAMFLOW, CLIMATE change
Abstract

Africa depends on its water resources for hydroelectricity, inland fisheries and water supply for domestic, industrial and agricultural operations. Anthropogenic climate change (CC) has changed the state of these water resources. Land use and land cover have also undergone significant changes due to the need to provide resources to a growing population. Yet, the impact of the land-use and land cover change (LULCC) in addition to CC on the water resources of Africa is underexplored. Here we investigate how precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET) and river flow respond to both CC and LULCC scenarios across the entire African continent. We set up a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT +) model for Africa and calibrated it using the hydrological mass balance calibration (HMBC) methodology detailed in Chawanda et al. (2020a). The model was subsequently driven by an ensemble of bias-adjusted global climate models to simulate the hydrological cycle under a range of CC and LULCC scenarios. The results indicate that the Zambezi and the Congo River basins are likely to experience reduced river flows under CC with an up to 7 % decrease, while the Limpopo River will likely have higher river flows. The Niger River basin is likely to experience the largest decrease in river flows in all of Africa due to CC. The Congo River basin has the largest difference in river flows between scenarios with (over 18 % increase) and without LULCC (over 20 % decrease). The projected changes have implications for the agriculture and energy sectors and hence the livelihood of people on the continent. Our results highlight the need to adopt policies to halt global greenhouse gas emissions and to combat the current trend of deforestation to avoid the high combined impact of CC and LULCC on water resources in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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50. Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Author

Lampe, Seppe, primary, Burton, Chantelle, additional, Kelley, Douglas, additional, Thiery, Wim, additional, Hantson, Stijn, additional, Christidis, Nikolaos, additional, Gudmundsson, Lukas, additional, Forrest, Matthew, additional, Burke, Eleanor, additional, Chang, Jinfeng, additional, Huang, Huilin, additional, Ito, Akihiko, additional, Kou-Giesbrecht, Sian, additional, Lasslop, Gitta, additional, Li, Wei, additional, Nieradzik, Lars, additional, Li, Fang, additional, Chen, Yang, additional, Randerson, James, additional, Reyer, Christopher, additional, and Mengel, Matthias, additional

Published
2023
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