Search

We offer a simple analytic framework for modelling an asymmetric multi-country world that faces negative impacts of climate change. A two-player asymmetric game combines economic efficiency and env...

There is a growing interest in voluntary programmes for climate change mitigation, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction commitments. This paper gauges evidence on the support of citizens for climate change mitigation programmes at the local level, analysing voting behaviour. A quasi-experimental set-up is offered by the EU Covenant of Mayors (CoM) initiative, which is the mainstream European movement for local authorities voluntarily committing to meet and exceed the European Union 20% GHG emission reduction target by 2020. The electoral impact of the participation of Italian municipalities to the CoM is estimated, using an instrumental variable (IV) approach. Mayors committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in their municipality appear not to lose electoral support at subsequent elections; this is contrary to what would be implied by a simple (biased) ordinary least squares regression. Moreover, IV point estimates are positive, albeit insignificant at standard levels; this could be due to the possibility of some support of citizens for emission reduction commitments. Finally, strong heterogeneity in socio-economic and demographic characteristics is found, with support of the CoM being more pronounced in wealthier and younger cities.

n/a

En Wallonie (les chiffres sont peu ou prou les mêmes pour la Belgique), 80 % du transport de personnes et de marchandises se fait par la route et 97 % de l’énergie utilisée pour le transport routier provient du pétrole. Le pétrole est aussi largement utilisé pour le chauffage des habitations. Il constitue également un intrant dans de nombreux procédés industriels, par exemple les plastiques. En fait, la quasi-totalité des biens et services que nous utilisons requièrent du pétrole à un stade ou l'autre de leur fabrication. Face à l'épuisement annoncé du pétrole, va-t-on se retrouver paralysés ? Au-delà des tensions actuelles sur le marché pétrolier, ce numéro de Regards économiques analyse, d'une part, la vulnérabilité des communes wallonnes à un choc pétrolier qui serait pérenne, d'autre part, la manière dont des mesures d'aménagement du territoire permettraient de faire face, sur le long terme, à la raréfaction du pétrole. A cette fin il est nécessaire de jouer de manière complémentaire sur la mobilité des individus, sur la manière dont ils bougent et sur la localisation des emplois et des lieux de résidence. Une analyse en deux temps est menée. Tout d'abord une analyse de temps court, c’est-à-dire un horizon de temps où les choses restent "plus ou moins comme maintenant" (disons, 2025) : pas de révolution technologique, pas de révolution comportementale et, surtout, pas de modifications majeures dans l’organisation spatiale de la Wallonie. Nous évaluons la vulnérabilité des communes wallonnes à un doublement du prix du baril (part des dépenses pour les déplacements domicile - travail et pour le chauffage dans le revenu médian). Ensuite, une analyse de temps long est menée. A cet horizon (disons, 2050) maints changements drastiques sont imaginables. Notre objet est de nous concentrer sur le potentiel offert par les mesures d'aménagement du territoire : comment localiser les emplois ou les populations ? Quelles sont les implications sur la mobilité et, partant, sur la consommation de pétrole ? Quelle est la contribution des solutions technologiques par rapport aux mesures liées à l’aménagement du territoire ? Cette analyse est réalisée sur base de scénarios prospectifs en termes de mobilité (déplacements et modes de transport) et de localisation des emplois et des populations entre les communes wallonnes. Des scénarios concernant l'agriculture ont également été étudiés. Enfin, la dernière partie de l'article est consacrée à des recommandations de politique économique et d'aménagement du territoire. En quelques mots, les principaux résultats de l'étude sont les suivants. Sur le temps court, les communes rurales sont plus vulnérables à un choc pétrolier que les villes. Sur le temps long, bouger moins est plus efficace pour réduire la dépendance au pétrole que bouger mieux. En termes de recommandations de politique économique, favoriser une réduction des déplacements domicile - travail est essentiel, ce qui peut passer par des mesures parafiscales adéquates et une réorganisation de l'espace en pôles urbains raisonnés. En ce qui concerne l'agriculture, le mode d'alimentation est fondamental pour libérer de l'espace.

L'Agence Internationale de l'Energie (AIE) vient de publier son rapport annuel. Celui-ci présente ses perspectives du système énergétique mondial à l'horizon 2035 (il est disponible en français sur le site de l'Agence : http://www.iea.org/publications/worldenergyoutlook). Le but de ces projections n'est pas de prévoir ce que sera le futur mais d'explorer ce qu'il pourrait être (sous différents scénarios), d'identifier les défis à venir et d'ainsi pousser les décideurs (publics et privés) à réagir à ces signaux afin d'éviter les problèmes annoncés.

La gestion du bruit autour de l'aéroport est un vrai problème politique depuis plusieurs années. C'est aussi un vrai problème économique. En 2005, le Service de Médiation pour l’Aéroport de Bruxelles-National, a enregistré 223.000 plaintes. Les autorités en charge de cette question ont eu beaucoup de difficulté à gérer ces conflits et peinent à trouver des solutions efficaces. D'un autre côté, l’aéroport a clôturé l’année 2005 sur un bénéfice de 160 millions d’euros avec un chiffre d’affaires de 324 millions d’euros. L'aéroport fournit de l'emploi à quelque 20.000 personnes. Pour contribuer au débat, nous avons réalisé une étude permettant d'évaluer de manière objective l'ampleur de la nuisance sonore telle qu’elle est perçue par les riverains. Le principe de cette méthode consiste à quantifier la valeur attachée à la nuisance sonore par l’observation du comportement des ménages lors de l'achat des maisons. On suppose que les individus vont consentir à l’achat d’une maison soumise à la nuisance à condition que son prix soit plus faible qu’une maison comparable en tous points (superficie, nombre de pièces, proximité à des facilités, etc.), mais située dans une zone sans nuisance. En observant les prix des transactions immobilières, on peut donc attribuer une valeur monétaire à la nuisance telle qu'elle est perçue par les individus. En cela, cette méthode fournit une évaluation objective de la nuisance subjective. Nous répondons ainsi à trois questions. Le coût de cette nuisance sonore pour les riverains de l’aéroport est-il si important que cela ? Comment ce coût est-il réparti entre les différentes zones de bruit ? Que représente le coût des nuisances par rapport aux bénéfices que l’aéroport apporte à la collectivité ? Les réponses sont les suivantes : L'ampleur de la nuisance s'avère faible. Chaque décibel supplémentaire se traduit en moyenne par une réduction de 0,9 % du prix des maisons. Sur base de ce résultat, on évalue que le dommage social total associé au bruit s'élevait à 10 millions d'euros en 2005. Le coût des nuisances sonores pour les riverains de l’aéroport semble donc beaucoup plus faible que les avantages que l’aéroport procure à la collectivité. Le coût des nuisances sonores est cependant très inégalement reparti entre les individus: la zone 70-75 dB(A), la plus bruyante, engendre un coût trois fois supérieur à celui de la zone 60-65 dB(A), et six fois supérieure à celle de la zone 55-60 dB(A), la moins bruyante. Le paradoxe est que, compte tenu du nombre de personnes exposées, la zone la plus bruyante ne représente que 0,4 % du dommage global tandis que la zone la moins exposée représente 72 % de ce dommage.

Regards économiques a aujourd’hui 5 ans et 50 numéros ! Le comité de rédaction de la revue a décidé de fêter l’évènement en rassemblant, pour ce 50ème numéro, 5 articles dans lesquels des économistes de l’UCL livrent leur réflexion par rapport à un certain nombre d’enjeux économiques qu’ils estiment importants pour les années à venir et qui, de ce fait, attendent le prochain gouvernement fédéral. Cette initiative s’inscrit tout à fait dans le projet de Regards économiques, qui vise à impliquer davantage les économistes dans le débat public en posant leur regard sur des questions concrètes de politique économique et sociale. Les 5 articles rassemblés dans ce numéro “anniversaire” de Regards économiques constituent le fruit de cette réflexion. Le premier article, préparé par Vincent Bodart, s’intitule “Une politique budgétaire ambitieuse pour affronter le choc démographique”. Il plaide pour un renforcement significatif de la situation des finances publiques belges durant la prochaine législature. Il estime en effet qu’il est urgent, dans le but de pouvoir faire face au coût budgétaire du vieillissement, de relever le surplus primaire, lequel a fortement diminué sous le gouvernement sortant. Dans le deuxième article, Bruno Van der Linden se penche sur la “ Politique d’emploi : quelques enjeux fédéraux majeurs”. Il montre, notamment, qu’il existe des alternatives à la régionalisation des politiques d’emploi, qui combinent mieux l’objectif d’assurer les travailleurs contre le risque de chômage et la nécessité de responsabiliser les régions. La troisième article, préparé par Marie-Catherine Vermer, Stéphane Nassaut et Marthe Nyssens, s’intitule “Le titre-service, un état de la situation”. Alors que les titres-services semblent être un “succès” en termes de création d’emplois et de réduction du travail au noir, les auteurs interpellent les pouvoirs publics sur des enjeux importants comme ceux de l’évaluation du coût budgétaire net du système titre-service, de la pérennité financière et de la qualité des emplois créés. Le quatrième article, préparé par Thierry Bréchet, s’intéresse aux questions environnementales. Dans “L’environnement dans tous ses états”, l’auteur montre, d’après une analyse de différents indicateurs environnementaux, que la situation en Belgique est contrastée : alors que certains indicateurs sont au vert, d’autres sont au rouge. Jusqu’où alors poursuivre les évolutions positives et comment s’attaquer aux tendances négatives ? Enfin, dans le dernier article, qui porte sur le “Fédéralisme belge : la chimère des transferts et la fragmentation de la nation”, Jean Hindriks développe une série de raisons pour ne pas régionaliser trop vite davantage de compétences, en relativisant notamment le poids démesuré accordé aux transferts Nord-Sud dans le débat politique en Belgique. Nous sommes bien conscients que d’autres enjeux économiques que ceux abordés dans les articles qui viennent d’être présentés attendent le prochain gouvernement. Notre souci n’était pas d’être exhaustif ! Outre la difficulté de la tâche, notre ambition était plutôt d’apporter un point de vue sur des questions en lien avec nos préoccupations de recherche. Qu’il soit bien clair pour le lecteur que la démarche qui anime la réflexion des différents auteurs est de nature uniquement académique, sans prise de position partisane en faveur d’un programme politique en particulier. Nous pensons que les problématiques discutées ici devraient interpeller tous les décideurs politiques, quelle que soit leur couleur. Les points de vue présentés dans chacune des contributions n’engage toutefois que leurs auteurs.

Il y a peu, la presse s'est faite l'écho d'une étude réalisée pour la Commission européenne sur le coût de la production d'électricité par différentes technologies (voir le communiqué de presse de la Commission; l'étude est accessible ici). Cette étude comparait la production par le nucléaire, le gaz, le charbon, l'éolien terrestre, l'éolien en mer et le solaire. Elle présentait le coût de production en tant que tel (le coût privé), le coût externe (le coût pour la collectivité lié à la pollution), et le coût des subventions publiques.

This paper discusses the role of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) on the market for carbon quotas and countries’ commitments to reduce their carbon emission levels. We show that the CDM contributes to an efficient funding of clean technology investments in least developed countries. However, the CDM is not neutral on the global level of carbon emissions as it entices countries to raise their emission caps. The CDM may also make inappropriate the inclusion of any country that takes no emission abatement commitment. It can even make inefficient a country’s decision to commit to an emission target.

The paper analytically explores the optimal allocation of investments into mitigation and environmental adaptation against climate change damages at a macroeconomic level. The economic-environmental model is formulated as a social planner problem where adaptation and abatement investments are separate decision variables. The existence of a unique steady state is proven. A comparative static analysis of optimal investments leads to essential implications for associated long-term environmental policies. It is shown that the optimal policy mix between adaptation and mitigation is lower for countries with higher economic efficiency for all applicable parameter ranges. Data calibration and numerical simulations are provided to estimate practical validity of theoretical outcomes.

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between technological greening, eco-efficiency and no-regret strategies. By using a simple theoretical model we evaluate the effects of technological greening on creation value, pollution level, and eco-efficiency. We show three contrasting effects of technological greening. First, technological greening may increase the pollution of a firm, and also of the whole industry. Second, the indicator of eco-efficiency can be misleading because it may improve in situations where pollution increases and/or profit decreases after technological greening. Third, technological greening that induces an improvement of the eco-efficiency indicator does not necessarily lead to a no-regret strategy. As a result, the indicator should not be used for decision-making. These are the many traps of technology greening promotion.

This paper discusses various issues in the implementation of a local market for aircraft noise licenses to solve the noise externalities harming the residents located near airports. The design of such markets is affected by aircraft heterogeneity, wind contingencies, peak times, runways capacity constraints, hub strategies, and airport planning is discussed.

In this article we ask whether a privately owned natural renewable resource can be conserved and managed efficiently when households have a joy-of-giving resource bequest motive. We model an overlapping generations economy in which firms have access to a CES production technology combining the natural resource, physical capital and labor. Our results shed light on the interplay between the resource bequest motive and the substitutability/ complementarity relationship between capital and the natural resource in the determination of the equilibrium propensity to use the resource. The mere existence of the bequest motive does not guarantee that the resource will be conserved in the long run. When the resource is highly substitutable with capital, the equilibrium actually never exhausts the resource stock whatever the intensity of the bequest motive. When the resource is a poor substitute for capital, the equilibrium preserves the resource only if the taste for bequeathing is strong enough. Be the economy in over-accumulation or in under-accumulation of the natural resource, it always increases aggregate consumption to run the stock of capital at a level lower than the efficiency level.

International audience; This study is motivated by the evidence of global warming, which is caused by human activity but affects the efficiency of the economy. We employ the integrated assessment Nordhaus DICE-2007 model (Nordhaus, A question of balance: economic modeling of global warming, Yale University Press, New Haven, 2008). Generally speaking, the framework is that of dynamic optimization of the discounted inter-temporal utility of consumption, taking into account the economic and the environmental dynamics. The main novelty is that several reasonable types of behavior (policy) of the economic agents, which may be non-optimal from the point of view of the global performance but are reasonable form an individual point of view and exist in reality, are strictly defined and analyzed. These include the concepts of "business as usual", in which an economic agent ignores her impact on the climate change (although adapting to it), and of "free riding with a perfect foresight", where some economic agents optimize in an adaptive way their individual performance expecting that the others would perform in a collectively optimal way. These policies are defined in a formal and unified way modifying ideas from the so-called "model predictive control". The introduced concepts are relevant to many other problems of dynamic optimization, especially in the context of resource economics. However, the numerical analysis in this paper is devoted to the evolution of the world economy and the average temperature in the next 150 years, depending on different scenarios for the behavior of the economic agents. In particular, the results show that the "business as usual", although adaptive to the change of the atmospheric temperature, may lead within 150 years to increase of temperature by 2°C more than the collectively optimal policy.

This article presents a market design for the management of noise pollution created by aircraft traffic around airports. A local market for noise licenses allows noise generators to compensate noise victims and to meet social acceptability. We show that the market allows the market designer to implement the social planner’s optimal allocation of flights as long as the latter does not put too high a weight in his/her objective function on firms’ profits compared to the disutility of noise pollution. The fact that local representatives of noise victims may be strategic players does not fundamentally alter this finding. Because of the market auctioneer’s information constraints, noise licenses are likely to distribute windfall gains to residents, which alters the urban structure in the long run.

In this paper we analyze the negotiation strategy of the European Union regarding the formation of an international climate agreement for the post-2012 era. We use game theoretical stability concepts to explore incentives for key players in the climate policy game to join future climate agreements. We compare a minus 20 percent unilateral commitment strategy by the EU with a multilateral minus 30 percent emission reduction strategy for all Annex-B countries. Using a numerical integrated assessment climateeconomy simulation model, we find that carbon leakage effects are negligible. The EU strategy to reduce emissions by 30% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2020 if other Annex-B countries follow does not induce participation of the USA with a similar 30% reduction commitment. However, the model shows that an appropriate initial allocation of emission allowances may stabilize a larger and more ambitious climate coalition than the Kyoto Protocol in its first commitment period.

Empirical evidence supports the existence of pollution abatement possibilities at negative costs, the so-called 'no-regret options'. We provide a microeconomic rationale for the existence of such potential at the firm level. An econometric application confirms that pollution abatement cost curves with no-regret options are compatible with a standard production function, as stated in our theoretical model. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In an overlapping-generations model with non-constant population growth, households own a natural renewable resource and have a family-altruism resource bequest motive. The natural resource can be either extracted and sold to firms, or bequeathed to children to increase their adult disposable income. Numerical applications show how family altruism interplays with population growth to shape the whole economy. The role of altruism in the case of two negative demographic shocks shows that the pressure on the natural resource is not necessarily reduced when population size is lower. Transmission mechanisms between generations and general equilibrium effects can yield unexpected outcomes. In particular, family altruism can lead either to preserve or to waste the resource.

We are interested in situations in which governments are committed to some pollution abatement constraint which does not match the society's most preferred level of pollution, like in the current climate change policies undergone on behalf of the Kyoto protocol. We develop an overlapping generations model with capital and pollution in which the individuals care about the environmental quality. We show that slightly improving the intertemporal flexibility of the emission quotas by authorizing two-period backward and forward transfers allows to decentralize the whole optimal growth path at competitive equilibrium.

It is widely assumed in the literature that environmental innovation reduces the marginal cost of pollution abatement. In this paper we show that this is not necessarily the case and we provide some unexpected outcomes.

This paper addresses the issue of the peaking of conventional oil production at the world level from an economist’s standpoint. It presents basic stylized facts from the recent history of oil markets, showing how the energy context has evolved over the past thirty years. The issue of the possible peaking of world oil production is then presented and discussed in light of standard economic theory. We show that some of the basic tenets of the oil peak thesis should be considered with due caution. Finally, we present a numerical analysis of the possible economic effects of a permanent and sharp increase of the world price of oil. It suggests that our economies could be much less vulnerable to future oil price shocks than is often assumed.JEL codes: E6 ; F4 ; Q4

Firms' or industries' ranking in terms of environmental performance may be influenced by equilibrium and not only by ex ante technological characteristics. We adopt a natural definition of relative eco-efficiency between two industries operating withinthe same environmental constraint: the more eco-efficient one is the one that has the higher output level. We compare the relative eco-efficiency of two technologies characterizing two industries, and then of two firms within the same industry. Weshow that all these comparisons depend, through the equilibrium, on the environmental constraint imposed at the industry level. We also show that firm's profitability at the equilibrium depends on its eco-efficiency, but also on its labour elasticity and permits allocation: the more eco-efficient firm is not necessarily the more profitable one.

That climate policies are costly is evident and therefore often create major fears. But the alternative (no action) also has a cost. Therefore, mitigation costs netted of the damage costs avoided are the only figure that can seriously be considered as the “genuine cost” of a policy. We elaborate on this view of a policy’s cost by distinguishing between its “direct” cost component and its avoided damage cost component; we then confront the two so as to evaluate its genuine cost. As damages avoided are equivalent to the benefits generated, this brings climate policies naturally in the realm of benefit-cost analysis. However, the sheer benefit-cost criterion may not be a sufficient incentive for a country to be induced to cooperate internationally, a necessary condition for an effective global climate policy. We therefore also explore how to make use of this criterion in the context of international climate cooperation.

The purpose of this paper is to extend the use of integrated assessment models by defining rational policies based on predictive control and adaptive behavior. The paper begins with an review of the main IAMs and their use. Then the concept of Model Predictive Nash Equilibrium (MPNE) is introduced within a general model involving heterogeneous economic agents operating in (and interfering with) a common environment. This concept captures the fact that agents do not have a perfect foresight for several ingredients of the model, including that of the environment. A version of the canonical IAM (DICE) is developed as a benchmark case. The concept of MPNE is then enhanced with adaptive learning about the environmental dynamics and the damages caused by global warming. The approach is illustrated by some numerical experiments in a two-region setting for several scenarios.

The clean development mechanism (CDM), one of the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, has not received noticeable attention in the applied modeling literature. In this paper we develop a policy-oriented trading model explicitly including the key features likely to influence the supply and demand of CDM projects. This model allows us to evaluate the contribution of the CDM to climate policies at the national level. With an application to Belgium we show that the CDM could reduce the cost of the Kyoto Protocol by a factor 10. Policy analyses reveal that some features (e.g. the market share) have much more influence on this result than others (notably the transaction costs). Moreover, equilibrium effects can sometimes exceed direct effects so that, all in all, a larger domestic abatement could be justified by the desire to reduce what we call carbon dependence. Policy implications and perspectives for the CDM are discussed.

More and more frequently policy-makers are urged to assess the impact of their strategies and policies in terms of sustainable development. This necessitates the use of applied scientific models as tools for identifying and evaluating the likely environmental, economic and social impacts of alternative policies. The objective of this paper is to provide a framework to help decision-makers choose the most appropriate—or the most appropriate mix—of models, by assessing their relative strengths and weaknesses. The paper also allows potential improvements in modeling techniques to be identified. Six modeling paradigms are assessed, both on a general basis and with respect to two specific policy contexts (energy policy, and land use and transport planning).

In this paper we analyze the effects of an environmental policy on the diffusion of a clean technology in an economy where firms compete on the output market. We show that the share of adopting firms is non-monotonic with the stringency of the environmental policy, and that the adoption of the clean technology may well increase the pollution level. We also compare the effects of an emission tax and tradable pollution permits on welfare, technology adoption, and pollution level. We show that, depending on the stringency of the policy, either the tax or the permits can yield a higher degree of technology adoption and pollution. Actually, technology adoption and environmental quality may be conflicting in discriminating among the instruments.

We consider a population of infinitely-lived households split into two: some agents have a high discount factor (the patients), and some others have a low one (the impatients). Polluting emissions due to economic activity harm environmental quality. The governmental policy consists in proposing households to vote for a tax to maintain environmental quality. By studying the voting equilibrium at steady states we show that the equilibrium maintenance level is the one of the median voter. We also show that (i) an increase in total factor productivity may produce effects described by the Environmental Kuznets Curve, (ii) an increase in the patience of impatient households may foster environmental quality if the median voter is impatient and maintenance positive, finally (iii) a decrease in inequality among the patient households leads to an increase in environmental quality if the median voter is patient and maintenance is positive. We show that, when the median income of the median voter is lower than the mean (which is empirically founded), our model with heterogeneous agents predicts a lower level of environmental quality than what the representative agent model would predict, and that increasing the public debt decreases the level of environmental quality.

The paper combines analytic and numeric tools to investigate a nonlinear optimal control problem relevant to the economics of climate change. The problem describes optimal investments into pollution mitigation and environmental adaptation at a macroeconomic level. The steady-state analysis of this problem focuses on the optimal ratio between adaptation and mitigation. In particular, we analytically prove that the long- term investments into adaptation are profitable only for economies above certain efficiency threshold. Numerical simulation is provided to estimate how the economic efficiency and capital deterioration affect the optimal policy.

In this paper we study the dynamic general equilibrium path of an economy and the associated optimal growth path in a two-sector overlapping generation model with a stock pollutant. A sector (power generation) is polluting, and the other (final good) is not. Pollution is regulated by tradable emission permits. The issue is to see whether the optimal growth path can be replicated in equilibrium with pollution permits, given that some permits must be issued free of charge for the sake of political acceptability. We first analyze the many adverse impacts of free allowances, and then we propose a policy rule that allows optimality and acceptability to be reconciled.

International audience; We develop an overlapping-generations model of growth and the environment in relation to public policy on education. Beyond the traditional mechanisms through which knowledge, growth, and the environment interplay, we stress the role played by education in environmental awareness. Assuming first that environmental awareness is constant, we show the existence of a balanced-growth path (BGP) along which environmental quality increases continually. Then, if education enhances environmental awareness, the equilibrium properties are modified: the economy can reach a steady state or converge to an asymptotic BGP. Therefore, education does not necessarily promote sustained and sustainable growth.

This article discusses the possibility of promoting a fiscal reform which would, at a European level, permit a double dividend to be obtained: the mitigation of CO 2 emissions and stimulation of employment creation. In this respect, a CO2/energy tax is considered in the light of financing cuts in social contributions equivalent to 1% of the European GDP. Simulations carried out with six European countries reveal that, under certain conditions, this hypothesis could be verified, even if the net impact on unemployment and CO 2 is rather limited.

The purpose of this paper is to extend the use of integrated assessment models by defining rational policies based on predictive control and adaptive behavior. The paper begins with an review of the main IAMs and their use. Then the concept of Model Predictive Nash Equilibrium (MPNE) is introduced within a general model involving heterogeneous economic agents operating in (and interfering with) a common environment. This concept captures the fact that agents do not have a perfect foresight for several ingredients of the model, including that of the environment. A version of the canonical IAM (DICE) is developed as a benchmark case. The concept of MPNE is then enhanced with adaptive learning about the environmental dynamics and the damages caused by global warming. The approach is illustrated by some numerical experiments in a two-region setting for several scenarios., L'objectif de cet article est d'inclure dans un modèle d'estimation intégrée (IAM) des politiques rationnelles basées sur les théories de contrôle optimal et de comportement adaptatif. L'article commence avec une revue des IAMs les plus importantes et leur utilisation dans la littérature. Par la suite, nous introduisons le concept d'Equilibre de Nash dans le cas d'un Modèle Prédictif (MPNE) et l'intégrons à un modèle général comprenant des agents économiques hétérogènes qui agissent (et qui interfèrent) dans un même milieu. Ce concept reprend des agents qui n'ont pas de "perfect foresight" par rapport à différents ingrédients du modèle, y compris l'environnement. Une version du DICE, le modèle IAM canonique, est développé comme modèle cadre. Le concept de MPNE est alors amélioré à travers un processus d'apprentissage adaptif concernant la dynamique de l'environnement et les dommages induits par le changement climatique. Notre approche est illustrée au moyen de plusieurs simulations numériques dans un cadre à deux régions.

This paper evaluates with numerical computations the respective merits of two competing notions of coalition stability in the standard global public goods model of climate change. To this effect it uses the CWS integrated assessment model. After a reminder of the two game theoretical stability notions involved — core-stability and internal-external stability — and of the CWS model, the former property is shown to hold for the grand coalition if resource transfers of a specific form between countries are introduced. The latter property appears to hold neither for the grand coalition nor for most large coalitions whereas it is verified for most small coalitions in a weak sense that involves transfers. Finally, coalitions, stable in either sense, that perform best in terms of carbon concentration and global welfare are always heterogeneous ones. Therefore, if coalitional stability is taken as an objective, promoting small or homogeneous coalitions is not to be recommended.

The paper analytically explores the optimal policy mix between mitigation and environmental adaptation against climate change at a macroeconomic level. The constructed economic- environmental model is formulated as a social planner problem with the adaptation and abatement investments as separate decision variables. The authors prove the existence of a unique steady state and provide a comparative static analysis of the optimal investment. It leads to essential implications for associated long-term environmental policies. In particular, the dependence of the optimal ratio between abatement and adaptation investments on economic efficiency appears to have an inverted U-shape. Data calibration and numerical simulation are provided to illustrate theoretical outcomes.

This article presents an analysis of the behavior of countries defining their climate policies in an uncertain context. The analysis is made using the S-CWS model, a stochastic version of an integrated assessment growth model. The model includes a stochastic definition of the climate sensitivity parameter. We show that the impact of uncertainty on policy design critically depends on the shape of the damage function. We also examine the benefits of cooperation in the context of uncertainty: we highlight the existence of an additional benefit of cooperation, namely risk reduction.

Noise-induced pollution constitutes a hot and topical societal problem for all major airports. This paper discusses various issues in the implementation of a market for noise licenses as a solution to solve the noise externality between the residents located around airports and the aircrafts moving in and to airports.

The heterogeneity of the available physical capital with respect to productivity and emission intensity is an important factor for policy design, especially in the presence of emission restrictions. In a vintage capital model, reducing pollution requires to change the capital structure through investment in cleaner machines and to scrap the more polluting ones. In such a setting we show that quantity-based or a price-based regulation may yield contrasting outcomes. We also show that some failures in the permits market may undermine its efficiency and that imposing the emission cap over longer periods plays a regularizing role in the market, that is, ensures a positive market price of permits and decreases its volatility.

Dans ce numéro de Regards économiques, nous proposons une évaluation quantitative des nuisances sonores provoquées par l'aéroport de Bruxelles- National. À la différence des mesures physiques, nous nous intéressons à la nuisance telle qu'elle est perçue par les riverains. Nous montrons que le coût global lié au bruit est relativement faible, mais qu'il est réparti de manière très inégalitaire entre les différentes zones de bruit.

Brussels Studies heeft onder meer als doel het debat aan te zwengelen over voorstellen voor overheidsoptreden die op wetenschappelijke studies steunen. Met dit nummer, Strabismen genaamd, hanteren we voor het eerst een nieuwe formule waarbij wetenschappers uit verschillende disciplines – in dit geval twee economisten en een geograaf – van gedachten wisselen over het zeer omstreden vraagstuk van de geluidshinder in de omgeving van de Brusselse luchthaven. De economisten stellen een markt voor geluidshindervergunningen voor als reguleringsinstrument, terwijl de geograaf de beleidsmakers oproept om het vraagstuk op te lossen op basis van het principe dat zo weinig mogelijk mensen blootgesteld mogen worden aan de door vliegtuigen voortgebrachte geluidshinder.