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The dairy industry in regions with moderate climates, such as Central Europe, will be increasingly challenged in the future by climate change. The problem of heat stress will especially affect dairy husbandry in naturally ventilated barns (NVB). The approach of the study was to determine a heat stress threshold of the average daily temperature-humidity index (THI) that results in changes in the daily rumination time (RT) of lactating, high-yielding cows. The data set was composed of a high sample size of 183 cows and long-duration measurements of 21240 daily observations over two years from June 2015 to May 2017, which were collected in an NVB in Groβ Kreutz, Germany. The THI was calculated in 5-min intervals by data from several sensors in different positions inside the barn. Additionally, every cow from the herd of an average of 53 cows in the experimental procedure was wearing a neck collar with a Lely Qwes HR system that provided the RT 24 h a day (12 2-h recordings were summarized). The study showed that heat stress also negatively influenced RT in moderate climates. The heat stress threshold of 52 THI was determined by broken-stick regression and indicated changes of RT of lactating dairy cows in Germany. During the experimental period, the heat stress threshold for RT was reached from April to September for up to 720 h per month. The changes in RT to the heat stress threshold will be affected by cows' characteristics. Therefore, we considered several cow-related factors, such as milk yield (MY), lactation number (LN), lactation stage (days in milk, or DIM) and pregnancy stage (P) to better understand cows’ individual reactions to heat stress. Multiparous, high-yielding cows in later lactation stages are potentially more strongly affected than other cows.

[EN] In the last decades, a global warming trend was observed. Along with the temperature increase, modifications in the humidity and wind regime amplify the regional and local impacts on livestock husbandry. Direct impacts include the occurrence of climatic stress conditions. In Europe, cows are economically highly relevant and are mainly kept in naturally ventilated buildings that are most susceptible to climate change. The high-yielding cows are particularly vulnerable to heat stress. Modifications in housing management are the main measures taken to improve the ability of livestock to cope with these conditions. Measures are typically taken in direct reaction to uncomfortable conditions instead of in anticipation of a long-term risk for climatic stress. Measures that balance welfare, environmental and economic issues are barely investigated in the context of climate change and are thus almost not available for commercial farms. Quantitative analysis of the climate change impacts on animal welfare and linked economic and environmental factors is rare. Therefore, we used a numerical modeling approach to estimate the future heat stress risk in such dairy cattle husbandry systems. The indoor climate was monitored inside three reference barns in central Europe and the Mediterranean regions. An artificial neuronal network (ANN) was trained to relate the outdoor weather conditions provided by official meteorological weather stations to the measured indoor microclimate. Subsequently, this ANN model was driven by an ensemble of regional climate model projections with three different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. For the evaluation of the heat stress risk, we considered the number and duration of heat stress events. Based on the changes in the heat stress events, various economic and environmental impacts were estimated. The impacts of the projected increase in heat stress risk varied among the barns due to different locations and designs as well as the anticipated climate change (considering different climate models and future greenhouse gas concentrations). There was an overall increasing trend in number and duration of heat stress events. At the end of the century, the number of annual stress events can be expected to increase by up to 2000, while the average duration of the events increases by up to 22 h compared to the end of the last century. This implies strong impacts on economics, environment and animal welfare and an urgent need for mid-term adaptation strategies. We anticipated that up to one-tenth of all hours of a year, correspondingly one-third of all days, will be classified as critical heat stress conditions. Due to heat stress, milk yield may decrease by about 2.8 % relative to the present European milk yield, and farmers may expect financial losses in the summer season of about 5.4 % of their monthly income. In addition, an increasing demand for emission reduction measures must be expected, as an emission increase of about 16 Gg of ammonia and 0.1 Gg of methane per year can be expected under the anticipated heat stress conditions. The cattle respiration rate increases by up to 60 %, and the standing time may be prolonged by 1 h. This causes health issues and increases the probability of medical treatments. The various impacts imply feedback loops in the climate system which are presently underexplored. Hence, future in-depth studies on the different impacts and adaptation options at different stress levels are highly recommended., This research has been supported by the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) through the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE) (grant nos. 2814ERA02C and 2814ERA03C), the Instituto Nacional de Investigacion Tecnologia Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA) (grant no. 618105), the Basque Government (grant no. BERC 2018-2021), the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness MINECO (grant nos. MDM-2017-0714, FJCI-2016-30263, and RYC-2017-22143), and the Innovation Foundation Denmark (grant no. 4215-00004B).