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Background Missing data can complicate the interpretability of a clinical trial, especially if the proportion is substantial and if there are different, potentially outcome-dependent causes. Methods We aimed to obtain unbiased estimates, in the presence of a high level of missing data, for the intervention effects in a prodromal Alzheimer’s disease trial: the LipiDiDiet study. We used a competing risk joint model that can simultaneously model each patient’s longitudinal outcome trajectory in combination with the timing and type of missingness. Results Using the competing risk joint model, we were able to provide unbiased estimates of the intervention effects in the presence of the different types of missingness. For the LipiDiDiet study, the intervention effects remained statistically significant after this correction for the timing and type of missingness. Conclusion Missing data is a common problem in (Alzheimer) clinical trials. It is important to realize that statistical techniques make specific assumptions about the missing data mechanisms. When there are different missing data sources, a competing risk joint model is a powerful method because it can explicitly model the association between the longitudinal data and each type of missingness. Trial registration Dutch Trial Register, NTR1705. Registered on 9 March 2009

Background Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive, fatal disorder with a variable disease course. The recent advancement of antifibrotic therapy has increased the need for reliable and specific biomarkers. This study aimed to assess alveolar epithelial biomarkers as predictors for the efficacy of the antifibrotic drug pirfenidone. Methods We conducted a post-hoc analysis of the prospective, multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial of pirfenidone in Japan (total, n = 267; pirfenidone, n = 163; placebo, n = 104). Logistic regression analysis was performed to extract parameters that predicted disease progression, defined by a ≥ 10% relative decline in vital capacity (VC) from baseline and/or death, at week 52. For assessment of serum surfactant protein (SP)-D, SP-A and Krebs von den Lungen (KL)-6, all patients were dichotomized by the median concentration of each biomarker at baseline to the high and low biomarker subgroups. Associations of these concentrations were examined with changes in VC at each time point from baseline up to week 52, along with progression-free survival (PFS). Additionally, the effect of pirfenidone treatment on serial longitudinal concentrations of these biomarkers were evaluated. Results In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, body mass index (BMI), %VC and SP-D in the pirfenidone group, and BMI and %VC in the placebo group were indicated as predictors of disease progression. Pirfenidone treatment reduced the decline in VC with statistical significance in the low SP-D and low SP-A subgroups over most of the treatment period, and also prolonged PFS in the low SP-D and low KL-6 subgroups. Furthermore, SP-D levels over time course were reduced in the pirfenidone group from as early as week 8 until the 52-week treatment period compared with the placebo group. Conclusions Serum SP-D was the most consistent biomarker for the efficacy of pirfenidone in the cohort trial of IPF. Serial measurements of SP-D might have a potential for application as a pharmacodynamic biomarker. Trial registration The clinical trial was registered with the Japan Pharmaceutical Information Center (JAPIC) on September 13, 2005 (registration No. JapicCTI-050121; http://Clinicaltrials.jp)

BACKGROUND Neoadjuvant endocrine therapy is not the standard of care for breast cancer, primarily because the optimal treatment duration remains unclear. This phase 2 prospective multicenter study analyzed time to progression, time to maximal response, and time to treatment failure for neoadjuvant exemestane. METHODS Inclusion criteria were women aged ≥60 years with Stage II or III breast cancer classified as estrogen receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative. Response was defined as a ≥10% and minimum of 3 mm decrease in tumor size, as compared with the most recent or smallest value, and no new lesion. Progression was defined as a >10% and minimum of over 3 mm increase in tumor size, as compared with the most recent or smallest value, or a new lesion. Maximal response was defined as the final recorded response. RESULTS This study included 24 women, most of whom had T2 N0 tumors with high estrogen receptor expression. We initially observed a response in 23 patients (96%); however, 6 patients (25%) later experienced progression. Time to progression, time to maximal response, and time to treatment failure ranged from 7 to 22 months (estimated median, 35), 1 to 22 months (estimated median, 10), and 2 to 22 months (estimated median, 22), respectively. Treatment duration varied widely, but the estimated optimal duration of neoadjuvant exemestane therapy was 22 to 35 months in patients seeking to avoid surgery and 10 months in patients wishing to receive breast-conserving surgery. CONCLUSIONS Neoadjuvant exemestane therapy is long effective for older women with hormone-sensitive breast cancer.

Background Serological diagnosis of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is challenging because of the antibody cross-reactivity among flaviviruses. At the same time, the role of Nucleic Acid Testing (NAT) is limited by the low proportion of symptomatic infections and the low average viral load. Here, we compared the diagnostic performance of commercially available IgM, IgAM, and IgG ELISAs in sequential samples during the ZIKV and chikungunya (CHIKV) epidemics and co-circulation of dengue virus (DENV) in Brazil and Venezuela. Methodology/Principal findings Acute (day of illness 1–5) and follow-up (day of illness ≥ 6) blood samples were collected from nine hundred and seven symptomatic patients enrolled in a prospective multicenter study between June 2012 and August 2016. Acute samples were tested by RT-PCR for ZIKV, DENV, and CHIKV. Acute and follow-up samples were tested for IgM, IgAM, and IgG antibodies to ZIKV using commercially available ELISAs. Among follow-up samples with a RT-PCR confirmed ZIKV infection, anti-ZIKV IgAM sensitivity was 93.5% (43/46), while IgM and IgG exhibited sensitivities of 30.3% (10/33) and 72% (18/25), respectively. An additional 24% (26/109) of ZIKV infections were detected via IgAM seroconversion in ZIKV/DENV/CHIKV RT-PCR negative patients. The specificity of anti-ZIKV IgM was estimated at 93% and that of IgAM at 85%. Conclusions/Significance Our findings exemplify the challenges of the assessment of test performance for ZIKV serological tests in the real-world setting, during co-circulation of DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV. However, we can also demonstrate that the IgAM immunoassay exhibits superior sensitivity to detect ZIKV RT-PCR confirmed infections compared to IgG and IgM immunoassays. The IgAM assay also proves to be promising for detection of anti-ZIKV seroconversions in sequential samples, both in ZIKV PCR-positive as well as PCR-negative patients, making this a candidate assay for serological monitoring of pregnant women in future ZIKV outbreaks., Author summary Zika virus (ZIKV) is transmitted through the bite of infected Aedes mosquitos but can also be transmitted sexually or vertically from mother-to-child. The same mosquitoes transmit dengue virus (DENV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV), which cause similar clinical syndromes. The ZIKV epidemics in the Pacific and the Americas that occurred between 2015 and 2017 were linked to congenital abnormalities, most prominently microcephaly, in newborns. Because most infections are asymptomatic, diagnosis via indirect serological assays is an important strategy. On the other hand, many serological assays are affected by cross-reactivity resulting from prior infections by closely related viruses, such as DENV. This study evaluated three commercially available and widely used immunoassays that detect IgG, IgM or IgA and M (IgAM) antibodies to ZIKV. Our results suggest that the IgAM test performs best by detecting around 90% of RT-PCR confirmed infections. We also detected additional infections that were not detected by RT-PCR. The strength of this study is that it was carried out in two different countries of the American region where several arboviruses are endemic and that sequential blood samples from individual patients were available to evaluate the performance of the tests over time.

Background: To explore the utility of the International Working Group (IWG)-1 criteria in recruitment for Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical trials, we applied the more recently proposed research diagnostic criteria to individuals enrolled in a randomized controlled prevention trial (RCT) and assessed their disease progression.Methods: The multinational LipiDiDiet RCT targeted 311 individuals with IWG-1 defined prodromal AD. Based on centrally analyzed baseline biomarkers, participants were classified according to the IWG-2 and National Institute on Aging–Alzheimer's Association (NIA-AA) 2011 and 2018 criteria. Linear mixed models were used to investigate the 2-year change in cognitive and functional performance (Neuropsychological Test Battery NTB Z scores, Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes CDR-SB) (criteria × time interactions; baseline score, randomization group, sex, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and age also included in the models). Cox models adjusted for randomization group, MMSE, sex, age, and study site were used to investigate the risk of progression to dementia over 2 years.Results: In total, 88%, 86%, and 69% of participants had abnormal cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) β-amyloid, total tau, and phosphorylated tau, respectively; 64% had an A+T+N+ profile (CSF available for N = 107). Cognitive-functional decline appeared to be more pronounced in the IWG-2 prodromal AD, NIA-AA 2011 high and intermediate AD likelihood, and NIA-AA 2018 AD groups, but few significant differences were observed between the groups within each set of criteria. Hazard ratio (95% CI) for dementia was 4.6 (1.6–13.7) for IWG-2 prodromal AD (reference group no prodromal AD), 7.4 (1.0–54.7) for NIA-AA 2011 high AD likelihood (reference group suspected non-AD pathology SNAP), and 9.4 (1.2–72.7) for NIA-AA 2018 AD (reference group non-Alzheimer's pathologic change). Compared with the NIA-AA 2011 high AD likelihood group (abnormal β-amyloid and neuronal injury markers), disease progression was similar in the intermediate AD likelihood group (medial temporal lobe atrophy; no CSF available).Conclusions: Despite being less restrictive than the other criteria, the IWG-1 criteria reliably identified individuals with AD pathology. More pragmatic and easily applicable selection criteria might be preferred due to feasibility in certain situations, e.g., in multidomain prevention trials that do not specifically target β-amyloid/tau pathologies.Trial registration: Netherlands Trial Register, NL1620. Registered on 9 March 2009

Gestational diabetes, the most common medical disorder in pregnancy, is defined as glucose intolerance resulting in hyperglycaemia that begins or is first diagnosed in pregnancy. Gestational diabetes is associated with increased pregnancy complications and long-term metabolic risks for the woman and the offspring. However, the current diagnostic and management strategies recommended by national and international guidelines are mainly focused on short-term risks during pregnancy and delivery, except the Carpenter-Coustan criteria, which were based on the risk of future incidence of type 2 diabetes post-gestational diabetes. In this Personal View, first, we summarise the evidence for long-term risk in women with gestational diabetes and their offspring. Second, we suggest that a shift is needed in the thinking about gestational diabetes; moving from the perception of a short-term condition that confers increased risks of large babies to a potentially modifiable long-term condition that contributes to the growing burden of childhood obesity and cardiometabolic disorders in women and the future generation. Third, we propose how the current clinical practice might be improved. Finally, we outline and justify priorities for future research.

Background: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is the most common chronic inflammatory skin disease in infancy with a complex pathology. In adults, the clinical severity of AD has been associated with increases in T helper cell type (Th) 2, Th22, and Th17 serum markers, including high levels of CC chemokine ligand (CCL) 17 and CCL22 chemokines. Objective: To explore the possible association between serum chemokine levels and AD severity in infants with moderate-to-severe AD and elevated immunoglobulin E (IgE). Subjects and methods: Serum samples (n = 41) obtained from a randomized, double-blind, and clinical dietary intervention study were used to study biomarkers in infants with AD. Baseline- and post-intervention samples (4 months) were used, six chemokines and nine ratios thereof were analyzed using Luminex and correlated to AD severity. In the initial study, the infants were randomized to receive extensively hydrolyzed whey-based formula without (control) or with short-chain galacto-oligosaccharides/long-chain fructo-oligosaccharides (9:1) and Bifidobacterium breve M-16V (active). Results: 31 Infants up to 11 months of age, with an objective-SCORAD score (oSCORAD) ≥ 20 and elevated total-IgE and/or specific-IgE levels were included. In time, the median oSCORAD decreased in both groups by -8 (control, p