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Diversification of flood risk management strategies (FRMS) in response to climate change relies on the adaptive capacities of institutions. Although adaptive capacities enable flexibility and adjustment, more empirical research is needed to better grasp the role of adaptive capacities to accommodate expected climate change effects. This paper presents an analytical framework based on the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) and Triple-loop Learning. The framework is applied to evaluate the adaptive capacities that were missing, employed, and developed throughout the &lsquo, Alblasserwaard-Vijfheerenlanden&rsquo, (The Netherlands) and the &lsquo, Wesermarsch&rsquo, (Germany) pilot projects. Evaluations were performed using questionnaires, interviews, and focus groups. From the 22 capacities of ACW, three capacities were identified important for diversifying the current FRMS, the capacity to develop a greater variety of solutions, continuous access to information about diversified FRMS, and collaborative leadership. Hardly any capacities related to &lsquo, learning&rsquo, and &lsquo, governance&rsquo, were mentioned by the stakeholders. From a further reflection on the data, we inferred that the pilot projects performed single-loop learning (incremental learning: &lsquo, are we doing what we do right?&rsquo, ), rather than double-loop learning (reframing: &lsquo, are we doing the right things?&rsquo, ). As the development of the framework is part of ongoing research, some directions for improvement are highlighted.

Since November 2012, Dutch civil defense organizations employ NL-Alert, a cellular broadcast-based warning system to inform the public. Individuals receive a message on their mobile phone about the actual threat, as well as some advice how to deal with the situation at hand. This study reports on the behavioral effects of NL-Alert (n = 643). The current risk communication literature suggested underlying mechanisms as perceived threat, efficacy beliefs, social norms, information sufficiency, and perceived message quality. Results indicate that adaptive behavior and behavioral avoidance can be predicted by subsets of these determinants. Affective and social predictors appear to be more important in this context that socio-cognitive predictors. Implications for the use of cellular broadcast systems like NL-Alert as a warning tool in emergency situations are discussed.

This article examines the extent and manner to which evaluations of flood-related precautions are affected by an individual's motivation and perception of context. It argues that the relationship between risk perception and flood risk preparedness can be fruitfully specified in terms of vulnerability and efficacy if these concepts are put into the perspective of prevention-focused motivation. This relationship was empirically examined in a risk communication experiment in a delta area of the Netherlands (n = 1,887). Prevention-focused motivation was induced by contextualized risk information. The results showed that prevention-focused individuals were more sensitive to the relevance of potential precautions for satisfying their needs in the context they found themselves in. The needs included, but were not limited to, fear reduction. Due to the heterogeneity of the residents, the evaluations reflected individual differences in the intensity and the selectivity of precautionary processes. Four types of persons could be distinguished according to their evaluation of precautionary measures: a high-scoring minority, two more selective types, and a low-scoring minority. For policymakers and risk communicators it is vital to consider the nature of prevention motivation and the context in which it is likely to be high.

This study investigates the processes that mediate the effects of framing flood risks on people's information needs. Insight into the effects of risk frames is important for developing balanced risk communication that explains both risks and benefits of living near water. The research was inspired by the risk information seeking and processing model and related models. In a web-based survey, respondents (n = 1,457) were randomly assigned to one of three communication frames or a control frame (experimental conditions). Each frame identically explained flood risk and additionally refined the message by emphasizing climate change, the quality of flood risk management, or the amenities of living near water. We tested the extent to which risk perceptions, trust, and affective responses mediate the framing effects on information need. As expected, the frames on average resulted in higher information need than the control frame. Attempts to lower fear appeal by stressing safety or amenities instead of climate change were marginally successful, a phenomenon that is known as a “negativity bias.” Framing effects were mediated by negative attributes (risk perception and negative affect) but not by positive attributes (trust and positive affect). This finding calls for theoretical refinement. Practically, communication messages will be more effective when they stimulate risk perceptions and evoke negative affect. However, arousal of fear may have unwanted side effects. For instance, fear arousal could lead to lower levels of trust in risk management among citizens. Regular monitoring of citizens’ attitudes is important to prevent extreme levels of distrust or cynicism.

This article proposes an approach to flood risk communication that gives particular emphasis to the distinction between prevention and promotion motivation. According to E. Tory Higgins, the promotion system and the prevention system are assumed to coexist in every person, but one or the other may be temporarily or chronically more accessible. These insights have far-reaching implications for our understanding of people's reasoning about risks. Flood risk communication framed in terms of prevention involves the notions of chance and harm, woven into a story about particular events that necessitate decisions to be more careful about safety issues and protect one's family and oneself from danger. The article describes how the insights worked out in practice, using a flood risk communication experiment among a sample from the general population in a highly populated river delta of the Netherlands. It had a posttest-only control group design (n = 2,302). The results showed that risk communication had a large effect on the participants' responses and that this effect was higher among chronic prevention-focused people than among others. Any information that increased the fit between a prevention-framed message and a person's chronic prevention motivation produced stronger situationally induced, prevention-focused responses. This may significantly improve communication about risks. In contrast, the notion of water city projects, featuring waterside living, had more appeal to promotion-focused people. Language: en

Although research indicates that adoption of flood preparations among Europeans is low, only a few studies have attempted to explain citizens’ preparedness behavior. This article applies the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) to explain flood preparedness intentions in the Netherlands. Survey data ( N = 1,115) showed that hazard-related attributes (e.g., perceived efficacy in protecting persons) were positively correlated, but failed to show that resource-related attributes (e.g., perceived costs) were negatively correlated with preparedness intentions. Although respondents rated the hazard-related attributes as more important than the resource-related attributes, moderated regression failed to detect practically meaningful interaction effects. Risk perception was also positively correlated with preparedness intentions but explained less variance than did the hazard-related attributes. Among the demographic characteristics, only female gender was consistently correlated with higher risk perception and the hazard-related attributes. Finally, risk area was correlated with perceived flood likelihood and consequences as well as the hazard-related attributes. Implications are discussed.

Flood hazards are the most common and destructive of all natural disasters. For decades, experts have been examining how flood losses can be mitigated. Just as in other risk domains, the study of risk perception and risk communication has gained increasing interest in flood risk management. Because of this research growth, a review of the state of the art in this domain is believed necessary. The review comprises 57 empirically based peer-reviewed articles on flood risk perception and communication from the Web of Science and Scopus databases. The characteristics of these articles are listed in a comprehensive table, presenting research design, research variables, and key findings. From this review, it follows that the majority of studies are of exploratory nature and have not applied any of the theoretical frameworks that are available in social science research. Consequently, a methodological standardization in measuring and analyzing people's flood risk perceptions and their adaptive behaviors is hardly present. This heterogeneity leads to difficulties in comparing results among studies. It is also shown that theoretical and empirical studies on flood risk communication are nearly nonexistent. The article concludes with a summary on methodological issues in the fields of flood-risk perception and flood-risk communication and proposes an agenda for future research.

Despite the prognoses of the effects of global warming (e.g., rising sea levels, increasing river discharges), few international studies have addressed how flood preparedness should be stimulated among private citizens. This article aims to predict Dutch citizens' flood preparedness intentions by testing a path model, including previous flood hazard experiences, trust in public flood protection, and flood risk perceptions (both affective and cognitive components). Data were collected through questionnaire surveys in two coastal communities (n= 169, n= 244) and in one river area community (n= 658). Causal relations were tested by means of structural equation modeling (SEM). Overall, the results indicate that both cognitive and affective mechanisms influence citizens' preparedness intentions. First, a higher level of trust reduces citizens' perceptions of flood likelihood, which in turn hampers their flood preparedness intentions (cognitive route). Second, trust also lessens the amount of dread evoked by flood risk, which in turn impedes flood preparedness intentions (affective route). Moreover, the affective route showed that levels of dread were especially influenced by citizens' negative and positive emotions related to their previous flood hazard experiences. Negative emotions most often reflected fear and powerlessness, while positive emotions most frequently reflected feelings of solidarity. The results are consistent with the affect heuristic and the historical context of Dutch flood risk management. The great challenge for flood risk management is the accommodation of both cognitive and affective mechanisms in risk communications, especially when most people lack an emotional basis stemming from previous flood hazard events.

People's risk perceptions are generally regarded as an important determinant of their decisions to adjust to natural hazards. However, few studies have evaluated how risk communication programs affect these risk perceptions. This study evaluates the effects of a small-scale flood risk communication program in the Netherlands, consisting of workshops and focus group discussions. The effects on the workshop participants’ (n = 24) and focus group participants’ (n = 16) flood risk perceptions were evaluated in a pretest-posttest control group (n = 40) design that focused on two mechanisms of attitude change—direct personal experience and attitude polarization. We expected that (H1) workshop participants would show greater shifts in their flood risk perceptions compared with control group participants and that (H2) focus groups would rather produce the conditions for attitude polarization (shifts toward more extreme attitudinal positions after group discussion). However, the results provide only modest support for these hypotheses, perhaps because of a mismatch between the sessions’ contents and the risk perception measures. An important contribution of this study is that it examined risk perception data by both conventional tests of the mean differences and tests for attitude polarization. Moreover, the possibility that attitude polarization could cause people to confirm their preexisting (hazard) beliefs could have important implications for risk communication.

Flood risk management in the Netherlands is on the eve of shifting primarily from prevention towards risk management, including disaster preparedness and response and citizen participation. This study explores Dutch households' perceived responsibility for taking private protection measures. Survey results (n = 658) indicate that flood risk perception is low, that 73% of the respondents regard the government as primarily responsible for protection against flood damage, but that about 50% viewed disaster preparedness as an equal responsibility between themselves and the government. Thus, a substantial part of the public may have an open attitude to communication about disaster preparation measures. Dilemmas for increasing citizen participation are discussed.

This article examines the extent and manner to which evaluations of flood-related precautions are affected by an individual's motivation and perception of context. It argues that the relationship between risk perception and flood risk preparedness can be fruitfully specified in terms of vulnerability and efficacy if these concepts are put into the perspective of prevention-focused motivation. This relationship was empirically examined in a risk communication experiment in a delta area of the Netherlands (n = 1,887). Prevention-focused motivation was induced by contextualized risk information. The results showed that prevention-focused individuals were more sensitive to the relevance of potential precautions for satisfying their needs in the context they found themselves in. The needs included, but were not limited to, fear reduction. Due to the heterogeneity of the residents, the evaluations reflected individual differences in the intensity and the selectivity of precautionary processes. Four types of persons could be distinguished according to their evaluation of precautionary measures: a high-scoring minority, two more selective types, and a low-scoring minority. For policymakers and risk communicators it is vital to consider the nature of prevention motivation and the context in which it is likely to be high.

In this paper we applied the psychometric paradigm to validate a questionnaire that assesses the risk perception characteristics of flooding and water nuisance. The state-trait anxiety inventory was used as a bench mark to determine whether perceptions are related to anxiety characteristics. A focus group was used to further validate the questionnaire. Factor analyses of 49 questionnaires identified eight flooding factors (explained variance: 74%) and three water nuisance factors (explained variance: 62%). Internal consistencies of the obtained scales were moderate to high. Like in the perception of external safety risks, \342\200\230dread\342\200\231 seems to be the most important concept binding different characteristics. Although dread towards both flooding and water nuisance is rather low, it seems more present in the latter case. Furthermore, the extent of dread for water nuisance seems related to someone\342\200\231s state anxiety. In both cases awareness of \342\200\230increasing risks\342\200\231 is clearly present, and we find the characteristics \342\200\230(no) dread\342\200\231, \342\200\230(un)controllable situation\342\200\231 and \342\200\230does not affect me\342\200\231 to be related.

The decision of many individuals in floodplains to not purchase flood insurance may impair the risk-spreading function of flood insurance markets. This study estimates the effectiveness of risk communication frames and insurance policy conditions in increasing demand for flood insurance. It is examined how communication interacts with individual frames about the flood hazard that are rooted in regulatory focus theory. A choice experiment elicits willingness-to-pay (WTP) for annual and multi-year flood insurance, using of a survey of a representative sample of 1250 households. The statistical method is a mixed logit model that accounts for heteroskedasticity arising from stated choice certainty. The communication frames considerably increase WTP compared with a control group. This effect of communication is positively related to an individual's degree of prevention motivation. Moreover, we find that demand for flood insurance can be increased by introducing multi-year policies, as long as the contract duration is not too long. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Flood hazards are the most common and destructive of all natural disasters. For decades, experts have been examining how flood losses can be mitigated. Just as in other risk domains, the study of risk perception and risk communication has gained increasing interest in flood risk management. Because of this research growth, a review of the state of the art in this domain is believed necessary. The review comprises 57 empirically based peer-reviewed articles on flood risk perception and communication from the Web of Science and Scopus databases. The characteristics of these articles are listed in a comprehensive table, presenting research design, research variables, and key findings. From this review, it follows that the majority of studies are of exploratory nature and have not applied any of the theoretical frameworks that are available in social science research. Consequently, a methodological standardization in measuring and analyzing people's flood risk perceptions and their adaptive behaviors is hardly present. This heterogeneity leads to difficulties in comparing results among studies. It is also shown that theoretical and empirical studies on flood risk communication are nearly nonexistent. The article concludes with a summary on methodological issues in the fields of flood-risk perception and flood-risk communication and proposes an agenda for future research.

Despite the high levels of flood protection in the Netherlands, absolute safety is not guaranteed. Preparing Dutch society for potential flood disasters, including the preparedness of individual citizens, is one of the great challenges in future flood risk management. This thesis is aimed at increasing the understanding of citizens’ intentions in flood preparation. Knowledge of the determinants of citizens’ behavioural intentions is indispensable for developing well-founded, effective risk communication that is aimed at facilitating citizens’ flood preparedness decisions. To study those behavioural intentions, we have adopted the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM, Lindell & Perry, 2000, 2004) which provides a social-psychological perspective on how people decide whether or not to prepare for disasters. This thesis contains four studies. These studies draw from the data that have been collected in three questionnaire surveys that were performed in flood risk areas along the Dutch coast, branches of the rivers Rhine and Meuse, and Lake Marken.