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259 results on '"Tett, Simon F. B."'

2. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2016 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidi, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., Schreck, Carl J., Stott, Peter A., Webb, Robert S., Werner, Francisco E., Knutson, Thomas R., Kam, Jonghun, Zeng, Fanrong, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Brainard, Russell E., Oliver, Thomas, McPhaden, Michael J., Cohen, Anne, Venegas, Robert o, Heenan, Adel, Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo, Rotjan, Randi, Mangubhai, Sangeeta, Flint, Elizabeth, Hunter, Susan A., Oliver, Eric C. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Holbrook, Neil J., Bindoff, Nathaniel L., Tett, Simon F. B., Falk, Alexander, Rogers, Megan, Spuler, Fiona, Turner, Calum, Wainwright, Joshua, Dimdore-Miles, Oscar, Knight, Sam, Freychet, Nicolas, Mineter, Michael J., Lehmann, Caroline E. R., Martins, Eduardo S. P. R., Coelho, Caio A. S., Haarsma, Rein, Otto, Friederike E. L., King, Andrew D., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Kew, Sarah, Philip, Sjoukje, Vasconcelos, Francisco C., Cullen, Heidi, Jézéquel, Aglaé, Yiou, Pascal, Radanovics, Sabine, Vautard, Robert, Sippel, Sebastian, El-Madany, Tarek S., Migliavacca, Mirco, Mahecha, Miguel D., Carrara, Arnaud, Flach, Milan, Kaminski, Thomas, Otto, Friederike E. L., Thonicke, Kirsten, Vossbeck, Michael, Reichstein, Markus, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Linying, Wood, Eric F., Funk, Chris, Davenport, Frank, Harrison, Laura, Magadzire, Tamuka, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid A., Shukla, Shraddhanand, Korecha, Diriba, Indeje, Matayo, Pomposi, Catherine, Macharia, Denis, Husak, Gregory, Nsadisa, Faka Dieudonne, Imada, Yukiko, Shiogama, Hideo, Takahashi, Chiharu, Watanabe, Masahiro, Mori, Masato, Kamae, Youichi, Maeda, Shuhei, Sun, Qiaohong, Miao, Chiyuan, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Shanshan, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Qian, Cheng, Wang, Jun, Dong, Siyan, Yin, Hong, Burke, Claire, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dong, Buwen, Freychet, Nicolas, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sun, Ying, Hu, Ting, Zhang, Xuebin, Wan, Hui, Stott, Peter, Lu, Chunhui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan, Ciavarella, Andrew, Stott, Peter A., Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Hendon, Harry, Wang, Guomin, Lewis, Sophie C., Mallela, Jennie, Grose, Michael R., Black, Mitchell, Risbey, James S., Uhe, Peter, Hope, Pandora K., Haustein, Karsten, Mitchell, Dann, Stott, Peter A., Christidis, Nikos, Herring, Stephanie C., Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., and Schreck, Carl J.

Published
2018

5. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2017 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidis, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Hoerling, Marty, Stott, Peter A., Owen, Rebecca, Vano, Julie A., Dettinger, Michael D., Cifelli, Rob, Curtis, David, Dufour, Alexis, Miller, Kathleen, Olsen, J. Rolf, Wilson, Anna M., Nerem, R. S., Fasullo, J., Hoell, Andrew, Perlwitz, Judith, Dewes, Candida, Wolter, Klaus, Rangwala, Imtiaz, Quan, Xiao-Wei, Eischeid, Jon, Wang, Hailan, Schubert, Siegfried D., Koster, Randal D., Chang, Yehui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Betts, Richard A., Stott, Peter A., de Abreu, Rafael C., Cunningham, Christopher, Rudorff, Conrado M., Rudorff, Natalia, Abatan, Abayomi A., Dong, Buwen, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sparrow, Sarah N., Navarro, Juan C. Acosta, Ortega, Pablo, García-Serrano, Javier, Guemas, Virginie, Tourigny, Etienne, Cruz-García, Rubén, Massonnet, François, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Kew, Sarah F., Philip, Sjoukje Y., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike E. L., Vautard, Robert, van der Schrier, Gerard, Funk, Chris, Hoell, Andrew, Nicholson, Sharon, Korecha, Diriba, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid, Teshome, Fetene, Hailermariam, Kinfe, Segele, Zewdu, Harrison, Laura, Tadege, Abebe, Atheru, Zachary, Pomposi, Catherine, Pedreros, Diego, Rimi, Ruksana H., Haustein, Karsten, Barbour, Emily J., Allen, Myles R., Takahashi, Chiharu, Shiogama, Hideo, Imada, Yukiko, Kosaka, Yu, Mori, Masato, Arai, Miki, Kamae, Youichi, Watanabe, Masahiro, Min, Seung-Ki, Kim, Yeon-Hee, Park, In-Hong, Lee, Donghyun, Sparrow, Sarah, Wallom, David, Stone, Dáithí, Sun, Ying, Dong, Siyan, Zhang, Xuebin, Stott, Peter, Hu, Ting, Wang, Shanshan, Yuan, Xing, Wu, Renguang, Chen, Yang, Chen, Wei, Su, Qin, Luo, Feifei, Sparrow, Sarah, Tian, Fangxing, Dong, Buwen, Tett, Simon F. B., Lott, Fraser C., Wallom, David, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Tan, Jianguo, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., King, A. D., Cougnon, E. A., Grose, M. R., Oliver, E. C. J., Holbrook, N. J., Lewis, S. C., Pourasghar, F., Hope, Pandora, Black, Mitchell T., Lim, Eun-Pa, Dowdy, Andrew, Wang, Guomin, Pepler, Acacia S., and Fawcett, Robert J. B.

Published
2019

11. Anthropogenic Influences on the Extremely Dry and Hot Summer of 2020 in Southern China and Projected Changes in the Likelihood of the Event

Author

Wang, Kaixi, primary, Zheng, Zhiyuan, additional, Zhu, Xian, additional, Dong, Wenjie, additional, Tett, Simon F. B., additional, Dong, Buwen, additional, Zhang, Wenxia, additional, Lott, Fraser C., additional, Bu, Lulei, additional, Wang, Yumiao, additional, Li, Huixin, additional, Nanding, Nergui, additional, Freychet, Nicolas, additional, Wang, Dongqian, additional, and Qiao, Shaobo, additional

Published
2024
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16. Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

Author

Shepherd, Theodore G., Boyd, Emily, Calel, Raphael A., Chapman, Sandra C., Dessai, Suraje, Dima-West, Ioana M., Fowler, Hayley J., James, Rachel, Maraun, Douglas, Martius, Olivia, Senior, Catherine A., Sobel, Adam H., Stainforth, David A., Tett, Simon F. B., Trenberth, Kevin E., van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M., Watkins, Nicholas W., Wilby, Robert L., and Zenghelis, Dimitri A.

Published
2018
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17. Parallel algorithms for atmospheric modelling

Author

Tett, Simon F. B.

Subjects
502.85
Abstract

In this thesis, the usefulness of massively parallel computers of the MIMD class to satisfy atmospheric modellers' demands for increased computing power is examined. Algorithms to use these computers, for the dynamics, are developed for both grid-point and spectral methods. Scaling formulae for these algorithms are developed and the algorithms are implemented on the Edinburgh Concurrent Supercomputer (ECS). Another component of atmospheric models is parameterization; in which the effects of unresolved phenomenan on the mean-flow are modelled. Two parameterization schemes are implemented on the ECS and a study of the effects of load-balancing is made. Furthermore it is concluded that implementation of parameterization schemes on data-parallel computers is likely to be difficult, unlike MIMD machines where the implementation is straightforward.

Published
1992

24. Recent developments in Holocene climate modelling

Author

Renssen, Hans, Braconnot, Pascale, Tett, Simon F. B., Von Storch, Hans, Weber, S. L., Smol, John P., editor, Last, William M., editor, Battarbee, Richard W., editor, Gasse, Françoise, editor, and Stickley, Catherine E., editor

Published
2004
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29. A derivative-free optimisation method for global ocean biogeochemical models

Author

Oliver, Sophy E., Cartis, Coralia, Kriest, Iris, Tett, Simon F. B., Khatiwala, Samar, Oliver, Sophy E., Cartis, Coralia, Kriest, Iris, Tett, Simon F. B., and Khatiwala, Samar

Abstract

The skill of global ocean biogeochemical models, and the earth system models in which they are embedded, can be improved by systematic calibration of the parameter values against observations. However, such tuning is seldom undertaken as these models are computationally very expensive. Here we investigate the performance of DFO-LS, a local, derivative-free optimisation algorithm which has been designed for computationally expensive models with irregular model–data misfit landscapes typical of biogeochemical models. We use DFO-LS to calibrate six parameters of a relatively complex global ocean biogeochemical model (MOPS) against synthetic dissolved oxygen, phosphate and nitrate “observations” from a reference run of the same model with a known parameter configuration. The performance of DFO-LS is compared with that of CMA-ES, another derivative-free algorithm that was applied in a previous study to the same model in one of the first successful attempts at calibrating a global model of this complexity. We find that DFO-LS successfully recovers five of the six parameters in approximately 40 evaluations of the misfit function (each one requiring a 3000-year run of MOPS to equilibrium), while CMA-ES needs over 1200 evaluations. Moreover, DFO-LS reached a “baseline” misfit, defined by observational noise, in just 11–14 evaluations, whereas CMA-ES required approximately 340 evaluations. We also find that the performance of DFO-LS is not significantly affected by observational sparsity, however fewer parameters were successfully optimised in the presence of observational uncertainty. The results presented here suggest that DFO-LS is sufficiently inexpensive and robust to apply to the calibration of complex, global ocean biogeochemical models.

Published
2022
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30. Quantifying the contribution of forcing and three prominent modes of variability to historical climate.

Author

Schurer, Andrew P., Hegerl, Gabriele C., Goosse, Hugues, Bollasina, Massimo A., England, Matthew H., Mineter, Michael J., Smith, Doug M., and Tett, Simon F. B.

Subjects
ANTARCTIC oscillation, EL Nino, CLIMATE change models, NORTH Atlantic oscillation, ATMOSPHERIC models, FORCED migration
Abstract

Climate models can produce accurate representations of the most important modes of climate variability, but they cannot be expected to follow their observed time evolution. This makes direct comparison of simulated and observed variability difficult and creates uncertainty in estimates of forced change. We investigate the role of three modes of climate variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, as pacemakers of climate variability since 1781, evaluating where their evolution masks or enhances forced climate trends. We use particle filter data assimilation to constrain the observed variability in a global climate model without nudging, producing a near-free-running model simulation with the time evolution of these modes similar to those observed. Since the climate model also contains external forcings, these simulations, in combination with model experiments with identical forcing but no assimilation, can be used to compare the forced response to the effect of the three modes assimilated and evaluate the extent to which these are confounded with the forced response. The assimilated model is significantly closer than the "forcing only" simulations to annual temperature and precipitation observations over many regions, in particular the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe. The results indicate where initialised simulations that track these modes could be expected to show additional skill. Assimilating the three modes cannot explain the large discrepancy previously found between observed and modelled variability in the southern extra-tropics but constraining the El Niño–Southern Oscillation reconciles simulated global cooling with that observed after volcanic eruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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35. Reduced probability of 2020 June–July persistent heavy Meiyu rainfall event in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin under anthropogenic forcing

Author

Tang, Haosu, Wang, Ziyue, Tang, Bin, Ma, Yayu, Pei, Lin, Tian, Fangxing, Wang, Jun, Nanding, Nergui, Sparrow, Sarah, Tett, Simon F. B., Dong, Buwen, Lott, Fraser C., and Buwen Dong

Abstract

Anthropogenic forcing has approximately halved the probability of 2020 June–July persistent heavy Meiyu rainfall event based on HadGEM3-GA6 simulations without considering the COVID-induced aerosol emission reduction.

Published
2022

36. Reduced Probability of 2020 June–July Persistent Heavy Mei-yu Rainfall Event in the Middle to Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin under Anthropogenic Forcing

Author

Tang, Haosu, primary, Wang, Ziyue, additional, Tang, Bin, additional, Ma, Yayu, additional, Pei, Lin, additional, Tian, Fangxing, additional, Wang, Jun, additional, Nanding, Nergui, additional, Sparrow, Sarah, additional, Tett, Simon F. B., additional, Dong, Buwen, additional, and Lott, Fraser C., additional

Published
2022
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37. Attribution of April 2020 Exceptional Cold Spell over Northeast China

Author

Yu, Hongyong, primary, Yu, Xiaojing, additional, Zhou, Ziwei, additional, Wang, Yu, additional, Li, Yingxin, additional, Nanding, Nergui, additional, Freychet, Nicolas, additional, Dong, Buwen, additional, Wang, Dongqian, additional, Lott, Fraser C., additional, Tett, Simon F. B., additional, and Sparrow, Sarah, additional

Published
2022
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38. VERTICAL PROFILES OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS

Author

Thorne, Peter W., Karl, Thomas R., Coleman, Holly, Folland, Chris K., Murray, Bill, Parker, David E., Ramaswamy, V., Rossow, William, Scaife, Adam A., and Tett, Simon F. B.

Published
2005

47. Event attribution of Parnaíba River floods in Northeastern Brazil

Author

Rudorff, Conrado, primary, Sparrow, Sarah, additional, Guedes, Marcia R. G., additional, Tett, Simon. F. B., additional, Brêda, João Paulo L. F., additional, Cunningham, Christopher, additional, Ribeiro, Flávia N. D., additional, Palharini, Rayana S. A., additional, and Lott, Fraser C., additional

Published
2021
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50. Anthropogenic influence on 2019 May-June extremely low precipitation in southwestern China

Author

Lu, Chunhui, Jiang, Jie, Chen, Ruidan, Ullah, Safi, Yu, Rong, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., and Dong, Buwen

Abstract

Anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the likelihood of the May–June 2019 severe low precipitation event in southwestern China by approximately 6 (1.4) times based on the HADGEM3-GA6 (CMIP6) simulations.

Published
2021

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