Jón Sólmundsson, Didier Gascuel, Jónas P. Jonasson, Luis Gil de Sola, Jakov Dulčić, Jákup Reinert, Melita Peharda, Jan G. Hiddink, Heino O. Fock, Henrik Gislason, Mark R. Payne, Sanja Matić-Skoko, Lilja Stefansdottir, Nedo Vrgoč, F. Velasco, Corina Chaves, Cristina Silva, Remment ter Hofstede, Igor Isajlović, Andrey V. Dolgov, Hicham Masski, Gudrun Marteinsdottir, Maria de Fátima Borges, Anders Nielsen, Jeremy S. Collie, Teresa Bottari, Ole A Jørgensen, Kristján Kristinsson, Daniel E. Duplisea, Brian R. MacKenzie, DTU Aqua, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] (DTU), Graduate School of Oceanography [Narragansett], University of Rhode Island (URI), Instituto Português de Investigação do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), Institute for Biological Resources and Marine Biotechnology (IRBIM), RUSSIAN FEDERAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF FISHERIES AND OCEANOGRAPHY MOSCOW RUS, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries, Maurice-Lamontagne Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), Thünen-Institute of Sea Fisheries, Écologie et santé des écosystèmes (ESE), AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO). Centro Costero de Málaga, Muelle Pesquero s/n. 29.640 Fuengirola (Málaga), Spain, School of Ocean Sciences [Menai Bridge], Bangor University, MARINE AND FRESHWATER RESEARCH INSTITUTE REYKJAVIK ISL, Institute of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Iceland, INRH, Faroe Marine Research Institute, INSTITUTO ESPANOL DE OCEANOGRAFIA SANTANDER ESP, Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-AGROCAMPUS OUEST, and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)
Aim: Previous analyses of marine fish species richness based on presence-absence data have shown changes with latitude and average species size, but little is known about the underlying processes. To elucidate these processes we use metabolic, neutral and descriptive statistical models to analyse how richness responds to maximum species length, fish abundance, temperature, primary production, depth, latitude and longitude, while accounting for differences in species catchability, sampling effort and mesh size. Data: Results from 53,382 bottom trawl hauls representing 50 fish assemblages. Location: The northern Atlantic from Nova Scotia to Guinea. Time period: 1977–2013. Methods: A descriptive generalized additive model was used to identify functional relationships between species richness and potential drivers, after which nonlinear estimation techniques were used to parameterize: (a) a ‘best’ fitting model of species richness built on the functional relationships, (b) an environmental model based on latitude, longitude and depth, and mechanistic models based on (c) metabolic and (d) neutral theory. Results: In the ‘best’ model the number of species observed is a lognormal function of maximum species length. It increases significantly with temperature, primary production, sampling effort, and abundance, and declines with depth and, for small species, with the mesh size in the trawl. The ‘best’ model explains close to 90% of the deviance and the neutral, metabolic and environmental models 89%. In all four models, maximum species length and either temperature or latitude account for more than half of the deviance explained. Main conclusions: The two mechanistic models explain the patterns in demersal fish species richness in the northern Atlantic almost equally well. A better understanding of the underlying drivers is likely to require development of dynamic mechanistic models of richness and size evolution, fit not only to extant distributions, but also to historical environmental conditions and to past speciation and extinction rates, Sí