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The aim of this reference text is to provide a common language and consistent approach to risk assessment across science and engineering disciplines through the collation of detailed, real examples and scenarios. Examples are drawn from a variety of industries and cover key risk topics such as tolerability, data collection, hazard identification and hazard interpretation. The approaches communicate common challenges and are compared and contrasted, with a particular focus on the terminology used. The book is essential reading for scientists and engineers that undertake risk assessment, including industry practitioners, researchers in academia and those with a general interest in improving risk assessment processes. It is also a valuable reference for science and engineering students that regularly undertake risk assessments or study courses on risk assessment. Key Features:Proposes a common language and consistent approach to risk assessment across science and engineering disciplinesCreates a bridge between industrial and academic approaches to risk analysis and encourages cross-disciplinary collaborationCollates detailed practical examples of risk assessmentExplores the diverse undertaking of risk assessment in a wide range of disciplinesAnalyses the approaches taken, with a particular focus on the terminology used

This book refutes the 21st-century notion that advancing technology is an unambiguous social good, and examines the effects of this uncritical acceptance and dependence. The author argues that technology has become the new religion for the digital age, and that elevating technology to nearly the status of a deity allows for the denial of problems created by reliance upon machines. From the release of toxins into the environment to the unsustainable energy demands of the modern era, technological dependence is driving humanity near the brink of extinction. Despite these problems, and existential issues such as artificial intelligence and the proliferation of nuclear weapons, many people have an unwavering belief in the ability of technology, particularly any device labeled'smart,'to create a perfect future--while denying the history of unmet promises and unintended consequences of technological innovation. The author explores the psychological underpinnings of these beliefs from both a clinical and a cognitive perspective. The social and economic forces that maintain our reliance on, or addiction to, technology are critiqued as are the ethical and security issues associated with the control of advanced technology.

Introduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice—from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new 2nd Edition discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today. The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk. Risk Assessment also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk. Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.

Existential risk studies is a growing field that attempts to understand the greatest dangers to humanity from a scientific perspective. This book offers the first scholarly survey of existential risks, from asteroid impacts and climate change to molecular nanotechnology and machine superintelligence. It argues that avoiding an existential catastrophe should be among our highest moral priorities and analyzes a number of risk mitigation strategies to reduce the probability of a worst-case scenario. The dangers facing humanity this century are real and immense, but the future course of civilization is ultimately up to us.

Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer's Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.

Selected by Choice magazine as an Outstanding Academic TitleThe 1984 lethal gas leak at the Union Carbide pesticide plant in Bhopal, India, may be the most extensively studied industrial disaster in history. In a departure from earlier studies that have focused primarily on the causes of the catastrophe, Sheila Jasanoff and the contributors to this volume critically examine the consequences of the accident.

La maîtrise des contaminations est devenue un enjeu stratégique pour les entreprises de hautes technologies et le domaine de la recherche et développement. Les entreprises investissent dans les salles propres et les environnements maîtrisés apparentés, mais ces investissements restent vains s'il n'y a pas une prise de conscience collective des dangers des contaminants avec la mise en place d'un management système de maîtrise des contaminations. L'auteur propose une analyse et présente les différents outils de prévention des risques de contamination en salles propres, destinés au secteur des entreprises de haute-technologie (automobile, aérospatial, optique, laser, microélectronique, nanotechnologie…), produisant des équipements et sensibles aux contaminants.L'ouvrage s'appuie sur les standards normatifs internationaux actuels dans le domaine des salles propres et présente les standards industriels par secteurs ; il favorise une démarche préventive et fait le point sur les différents outils de maîtrise de la contamination ; il expose les nouveaux enjeux écologiques, énergétiques, de mondialisation et donc de concurrence et de productivité.

In recent years public attention has focused on an array of low-probability/high-consequence (LC/HC) events that pose a signif­ icant threat to human health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, public and private sector responsibilities for the assessment and management of such events have grown because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problem of assessing and balancing LP/ HC risks against the costs and ben if its of risk reduction. The need to help society cope with LP/HC events such as nuclear power plant accidents, toxic spills, chemical plant explosions, and transportation accidents has given rise to the development of a new intellectual endeavor: LP/HC risk analysis. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many f~elds. Analyzing technical, social, and value issues requires the efforts of physicists, biologists, geneticists, statisticians, chemists, engineers, political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, economists, psychologists, ethicists, lawyers, and policy analysts. Included in this volume are papers by authors in each of these disciplines. The papers share in common a focus on one or more of the following questions that are generic to the analysis of LP/HC risks.

An overview of the methods used for risk analysis in a variety of industrial sectors, with a particular focus on the consideration of human aspects, this book provides a definition of all the fundamental notions associated with risks and risk management, as well as clearly placing the discipline of risk analysis within the broader context of risk management processes.The author begins by presenting a certain number of basic concepts, followed by the general principle of risk analysis. He then moves on to examine the ISO31000 standard, which provides a specification for the implementation of a risk management approach. The ability to represent the information we use is crucial, so the representation of knowledge, covering both information concerning the risk occurrence mechanism and details of the system under scrutiny, is also considered. The different analysis methods are then presented, firstly for the identification of risks, then for their analysis in terms of cause and effect, and finally for the implementation of safety measures.Concrete examples are given throughout the book and the methodology and method can be applied to various fields (industry, health, organization, technical systems). Contents Part 1. General Concepts and Principles1. Introduction.2. Basic Notions.3. Principles of Risk Analysis Methods.4. The Risk Management Process (ISO31000).Part 2. Knowledge Representation5. Modeling Risk.6. Measuring the Importance of a Risk.7. Modeling of Systems for Risk Analysis.Part 3. Risk Analysis Method8. Preliminary Hazard Analysis.9. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis.10. Deviation Analysis Using the HAZOP Method.11. The Systemic and Organized Risk Analysis Method.12. Fault Tree Analysis.13. Event Tree and Bow-Tie Diagram Analysis.14. Human Reliability Analysis.15. Barrier Analysis and Layer of Protection Analysis.Part 4. AppendicesAppendix 1. Occupational Hazard Checklists.Appendix 2. Causal Tree Analysis.Appendix 3. A Few Reminders on the Theory of Probability.Appendix 4. Useful Notions in Reliability Theory.Appendix 5. Data Sources for Reliability.Appendix 6. A Few Approaches for System Modelling.Appendix 7. CaseStudy: Chemical Process.Appendix 8. XRisk Software. About the Authors Jean-Marie Flaus is Professor at Joseph Fourier University in Grenoble, France.

This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.

The Social and Cultural Construction of Risk: Issues, Methods, and Case Studies Vincent T. Covello and Branden B. Johnson Risks to health, safety, and the environment abound in the world and people cope as best they can. But before action can be taken to control, reduce, or eliminate these risks, decisions must be made about which risks are important and which risks can safely be ignored. The challenge for decision makers is that consensus on these matters is often lacking. Risks believed by some individuals and groups to be tolerable or accept­ able - such as the risks of nuclear power or industrial pollutants - are intolerable and unacceptable to others. This book addresses this issue by exploring how particular technological risks come to be selected for societal attention and action. Each section of the volume examines, from a different perspective, how individuals, groups, communities, and societies decide what is risky, how risky it is, and what should be done. The writing of this book was inspired by another book: Risk and Culture: An Essay on the Selection of Technoloqical and Environmental Dangers. Published in 1982 and written by two distinguished scholars - Mary Douglas, a British social anthropologist, and Aaron Wildavsky, an American political scientist - the book received wide critical attention and offered several provocative ideas on the nature of risk selection, perception, and acceptance.

Since the emerging discipline of engineering enterprise systems extends traditional systems engineering to develop webs of systems and systems-of-systems, the engineering management and management science communities need new approaches for analyzing and managing risk in engineering enterprise systems. Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterpri

Encouragement by colleagues and a considerable increase in the use of prob­ abilistic analyses since the publication of the German edition in 1987 have motivated this English version. A mere translation was inappropriate because a number of important studies completed in recent years had to be included, among them the assessment of the risks of five nuclear power plants in the United States of America and the German Risk Study, Phase B. The opportunity was taken to elaborate on some concepts which have gained importance of late such as accident management. An update of international safety goals was also made; however, this can only be a momentary view of a field subjected to frequent change. Thanks are due to the Springer-Verlag for the careful editing and production of the book. Kaln, Garching Ulrich Hauptmanns March 1990 Wolfgang Werner Preface to the German Edition With the increasing use of complex technologies there is a growing need to evaluate the associated risks. The methodology of probabilistic safety and risk analysis allows predictive valuation of risks. Nuclear engineering has been in the forefront of the development and application of this method. In the Safety Study on US Power Plants published in 1975 the risk of an entire technology was investigated systematically and quantified for the first time. Meanwhile the methods have continuously been improved and applied to a number of nuclear power stations.

Classes of socio-technical hazards allow a characterization of the risk in technology innovation and clarify the mechanisms underpinning emergent technological risk. Emerging Technological Risk provides an interdisciplinary account of risk in socio-technical systems including hazards which highlight:· How technological risk crosses organizational boundaries,· How technological trajectories and evolution develop from resolving tensions emerging between social aspects of organisations and technologies and· How social behaviour shapes, and is shaped by, technology.Addressing an audience from a range of academic and professional backgrounds, Emerging Technological Risk is a key source for those who wish to benefit from a detail and methodical exposure to multiple perspectives on technological risk. By providing a synthesis of recent work on risk that captures the complex mechanisms that characterize the emergence of risk in technology innovation, Emerging Technological Risk bridges contributions from many disciplines in order to sustain a fruitful debate. Emerging Technological Risk is one of a series of books developed by the Dependability Interdisciplinary Research Collaboration funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

Much of the work in this volume was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant SES82-05112 from the Program in History and Philosophy of Science and the Division of Policy Research and Analysis. (Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.) Several of these essays were written because of the impetus afforded by speaking invitations. An earlier version of Chapter 3 was presented in Berkeley in January 1983 at a Principal Investi­ gators'Conference sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Division of Policy Research and Analysis, Technology Assessment and Risk Assessment Group. In May 1982, an earlier version of Chapter 5 was presented at the meeting of the Society for Philos­ ophy and Technology, held in conjunction with the American Philosophical Association meeting, Western Division, in Columbus, Ohio. Finally, earlier versions of Chapter 6 were presented in Boston in December 1981 at the Boston Colloquium for the Philosophy of Science, as well as at the University of Delaware in January 1982 and at the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association held in Philadelphia in October 1982. An earlier version of this same chapter was published in Philosophy of Science Association 82, volume 1, ed. T. Nickles, Philosophy of Science Association, East Lansing, Michigan, 1982. A number of people have helped to make this book better than it might have been.

An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overall risk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models and accident causation offers readers new insights into how and why accidents occur to help them make better assessments. Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefully describes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, including preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-contained description as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets that illustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areas in risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, human errors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for further study of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main results from probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing of key terms used in risk assessment. A related website features problems that allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material and supplemental slides to facilitate the learning process. Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.

Risque et complexité, l'association de ces deux mots aurait-elle seulement pour effet de lier l'un à l'autre? Crée-t-elle une relation nouvelle? Les risques naîtraient-ils de la complexité? La complexité serait-elle source de risques? Ou au contraire pourrait-elle donner un sens nouveau, plus fort à cette expression? Une réflexion sur deux concepts difficiles à cerner, liés, tissés, indissociables, complémentaires, et qui s'enrichissent et s'éclairent l'un l'autre.

A Text on the Foundation Processes, Analytical Principles, and Implementation Practices of Engineering Risk ManagementDrawing from the author's many years of hands-on experience in the field, Analytical Methods for Risk Management: A Systems Engineering Perspectivepresents the foundation processes and analytical practices

Examines timely multidisciplinary applications, problems, and case histories in risk modeling, assessment, and management Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Third Edition describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, homeland security, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work applies the art and science of risk analysis to current and emergent engineering and socioeconomic problems. It clearly demonstrates how to quantify risk and construct probabilities for real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, and political issues. Avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, this important new edition presents basic concepts as well as advanced material. It incorporates numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion and features restructured and updated chapters, as well as: A new chapter applying systems-driven and risk-based analysis to a variety of Homeland Security issues An accompanying FTP site—developed with Professor Joost Santos—that offers 150 example problems with an Instructor's Solution Manual and case studies from a variety of journals Case studies on the 9/11 attack and Hurricane Katrina An adaptive multiplayer Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) game added to Chapter Three This is an indispensable resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in such diverse areas as homeland and cyber security, healthcare, the environment, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more. It is also a valuable textbook for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses with a focus on our uncertain world.

'A comprehensive and important collection that includes essays by some of the leading figures in the field....Essential reading for anyone interested in risk assessment.'Professor Kristin Shrader-Frechette, University of Notre Dame'The editors are to be congratulated for bringing together a distinguished international group of theorists to reflect on the issues. This volume will be sure to raise the level of debate while at the same time showing the importance of philosophical reflection in approaches to the problems of the age.'Professor Jonathan Wolff, University College London This volume brings together top authors from the fields of risk, philosophy, social sciences and psychology to address the issue of how we should decide how far technological risks are morally acceptable or not. The underlying principles are examined, along with methodological challenges, public involvement and instruments for democratization. A strong theoretical basis is complemented by a range of case studies from some of the most contentious areas, including medical ethics and GM crops. This book is a vital new resource for researchers, students and anyone concerned that traditional approaches to risk management don't adequately address ethical considerations.

'Risks in Technological Systems'is an interdisciplinary university textbook and a book for the educated reader on the risks of today's society. In order to understand and analyze risks associated with the engineering systems on which modern society relies, other concerns have to be addressed, besides technical aspects. In contrast to many academic textbooks dealing with technological risks, this book has a unique interdisciplinary character that presents technological risks in their own context. Twenty-four scientists have come together to present their views on risks in technological systems. Their scientific disciplines cover not only engineering, economics and medicine, but also history, psychology, literature and philosophy. Taken together these contributions provide a broad, but accurate, interdisciplinary introduction to a field of increasing global interest, as well as rich opportunities to achieve in-depth knowledge of the subject.

The technological age has seen a range of catastrophic and preventable failures, often as a result of decisions that did not appropriately consider safety as a factor in design and engineering. Through more than a dozen practical examples from the author‘s experience in nuclear power, aerospace, and other potentially hazardous facilities, Choosing Safety is the first book to bring together probabilistic risk assessment and decision analysis using real case studies. For managers, project leaders, engineers, scientists, and interested students, Michael V. Frank focuses on methods for making logical decisions about complex engineered systems and products in which safety is a key factor in design - and where failure can cause great harm, injury, or death.

Introduction This book includes terms of reference and offers an augmented volume of relevant work initiated within the comprehensive concept of “Knowledge Management and Risk Governance”. The latter stood for the initial title of an ad-hoc meeting held in Ascona, Switzerland, organized by the Technological Risk Management Unit of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC) and the KOVERS Centre of Excellence in Risk and Safety Sciences of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH Zurich. Background Risk governance, in addition to the continuous interest of researchers, has recently attracted the attention of policy-makers and the media and the concern of the public. New and emerging risks in various fields and a number of risk-related issues increased the public interest and prompted for a new framework in dealing with risks. The Conference on Science and Governance organized by the European Commission in October 2000 is one of the international forums addressing this issue. Other recent events such as the establishment of the International Risk Governance Council outline the importance of the governance concept in relation to that of risk management (see www.irgc.org). At the same time noticeable progress has been made in Information Technologies and Decision Support, passing from the process of information PREFACE xvi to the process of knowledge. In this context new tools and methods became available, whose application in risk management may be beneficial.

An updated and timely new look at the theory and practice of risk management Since the first edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management was published, public interest in the field of risk analysis has grown astronomically. Its adaptation across many disciplines and its deployment by industry and government agencies in decision making has led to an unprecedented development of new theory, methodology, and practical tools. The Second Edition of this well-regarded reference describes the state of the art of risk management and its important applications in such areas as engineering, science, manufacturing, business, management, and public policy. The author strikes a balance between the quantitative and the qualitative aspects of risk management, showing clearly how to quantify risk and construct probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems. At the same time, he addresses a host of institutional, organizational, political, and cultural considerations. Incorporating real-world examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion, the book presents basic concepts as well as advanced material, avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible. Some key revisions to the Second Edition include: • A completely updated format with many new examples and problems • A new chapter on Risks of Terrorism, including case studies in transportation, water supply, infrastructure interdependencies, food safety, and a National Research Council report on terrorism • A new chapter on Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management (RFRM), a technology co-developed by the author and supported by several case studies and examples • A new focus on minimizing the high cost associated with today's more extensive risk management Examining timely, multidisciplinary practical applications, this new edition offers an important resource for industry professionals as well as advanced graduate students in systems engineering.

In the aftermath of catastrophes, it is common to find prior indicators, missed signals, and dismissed alerts that, had they been recognized and appropriately managed before the event, could have resulted in the undesired event being averted. These indicators are typically called'precursors.'Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence documents various industrial and academic approaches to detecting, analyzing, and benefiting from accident precursors and examines public-sector and private-sector roles in the collection and use of precursor information. The book includes the analysis, findings and recommendations of the authoring NAE committee as well as eleven individually authored background papers on the opportunity of precursor analysis and management, risk assessment, risk management, and linking risk assessment and management.

More than any other book available, Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics introduces the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive experience in uncertainty and risk modeling and

This “very absorbing look at technological catastrophes and why they happen”explores systemic breakdowns behind disasters from Chernobyl to the Challenger(Booklist).Inviting Disaster delves into over fifty of history's worst catastrophes in order to show how increasingly “smart” systems leave us wide open to human tragedy. Weaving a dramatic narrative that explains how breakdowns in these systems result in such disasters as the chain reaction crash of the Air France Concorde and the Bhopal chemical accident that killed thousands. James Chiles vividly demonstrates how the battle between human and machine may be escalating beyond manageable limits—and why we all have a stake in its outcome.Included in this edition is a special introduction providing a behind-the-scenes look at the World Trade Center catastrophe. Combining firsthand accounts of employees'escapes with an in-depth look at the structural reasons behind the towers'collapse, Chiles addresses the question: Were the towers “two tall heroes” or structures with a fatal flaw?“Vivid and dramatic stories.” —Harvard Business Review“This is not a Luddite's call for a return to the days before complicated technology but a careful examination of various disasters... and how they might have been prevented.” —Library Journal“A chillingly fascinating book that educates and informs in a highly readable style.” —Dallas Morning News

القضية تتعلق بقصور النظم التكنولوجية المتقدمة و المعقدة من ناحية, و بين أخطاء البشر في التعامل معها. إن التهوين من هذين الامرين باعتبار ان نظمنا التكنولوجية المعقدة ترقي فوق مستوي الخطأ و ان العنصر البشري يمكن التحكم في أدائه بالطمئنان علي بعض الاختبارات الصحية أو النفسية, و هذا التهوين يوصف بحق'بالغرطسة المميتة'

Written for safety and loss-control, environmental, and quality managers, this is the first comprehensive, integrated guide to developing a complete environmental risk analysis for regulated substances and processes. Unlike other books, Introduction to Risk Analysis looks at risk from a regulatory perspective, allowing both professionals in regulatory agencies concerned with risk_including OSHA, EPA, USDA, DOT, FDA, and state environmental agencies_and professionals in any agency-regulated industry to understand and implement the methods required for proper risk assessment. The authors examine risk and the structure of analysis. Emphasizing the predictive nature of risk, they discuss the quantitative nature of risk and explore quantitative-analysis topics, including data graphing, logarithmic thinking, risk estimating, and curve fitting. Chapters include discussions on functions, models, and uncertainties; the regulatory process; risk assessment; exposure; dosimetry; epidemiology; toxicology; risk characterization; comparative risk assessment; ecological risk assessment; risk management; and risk communication. Six in-depth case studies, an annotated bibliography, and more than 50 figures are also included.

How dangerous is smoking? What are the risks of nuclear power or of climate change? What are the chances of dying on an airplane? More importantly, how do we use this information once we have it? The demand for risk analysts who are able to answer such questions has grown exponentially in recent years. Yet programs to train these analysts have not kept pace. In this book, Daniel Kammen and David Hassenzahl address that problem. They draw together, organize, and seek to unify previously disparate theories and methodologies connected with risk analysis for health, environmental, and technological problems. They also provide a rich variety of case studies and worked problems, meeting the growing need for an up-to-date book suitable for teaching and individual learning. The specific problems addressed in the book include order-of-magnitude estimation, dose-response calculations, exposure assessment, extrapolations and forecasts based on experimental or natural data, modeling and the problems of complexity in models, fault-tree analysis, managing and estimating uncertainty, and social theories of risk and risk communication. The authors cover basic and intermediate statistics, as well as Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian analysis, and various techniques of uncertainty and forecast evaluation. The volume's unique approach will appeal to a wide range of people in environmental science and studies, health care, and engineering, as well as to policy makers confronted by the increasing number of decisions requiring risk and cost/benefit analysis. Should We Risk It? will become a standard text in courses involving risk and decision analysis and in courses of applied statistics with a focus on environmental and technological issues.

Normal Accidents analyzes the social side of technological risk. Charles Perrow argues that the conventional engineering approach to ensuring safety--building in more warnings and safeguards--fails because systems complexity makes failures inevitable. He asserts that typical precautions, by adding to complexity, may help create new categories of accidents. (At Chernobyl, tests of a new safety system helped produce the meltdown and subsequent fire.) By recognizing two dimensions of risk--complex versus linear interactions, and tight versus loose coupling--this book provides a powerful framework for analyzing risks and the organizations that insist we run them. The first edition fulfilled one reviewer's prediction that it'may mark the beginning of accident research.'In the new afterword to this edition Perrow reviews the extensive work on the major accidents of the last fifteen years, including Bhopal, Chernobyl, and the Challenger disaster. The new postscript probes what the author considers to be the'quintessential'Normal Accident''of our time: the Y2K computer problem.