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We analyse the UK policy response to Covid-19 and its impact on household incomes, as of late April 2020, using microsimulation methods. We estimate that households will lose a substantial share of their net income (8% on average). The proportional losses are largest for higher-income families. However, the overall impact of the crisis on income inequality is small. Earnings subsidies (Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme) will protect household finances and provide the main insurance mechanism during the crisis. Besides subsidies, Covid-related benefit increases and tax-benefit automatic stabilisers will play an important role in mitigating the shocks, underlining the importance of tax-benefit design in protecting household incomes during economic downturns. Analysing how a near-decade of austerity has affected the UK safety net, we find that, even after the extra benefit spending, the ability of the 2020 system to provide insurance against the shocks would be similar to the 2011 pre-austerity system.

Over the past years, the number of university graduates increased at an unprecedented rate in Great Britain. We analyse how this higher education (HE) expansion affected inequality in household net incomes in the 2000s. We show that, all else being equal, education composition changes led to higher living standards mostly through higher wages. As HE expansion benefited households from the middle and top of the distribution more than the bottom, income inequality increased. Despite the increasing share of high-educated workers, we find no evidence of a 'compression' effect on inequality, as the HE wage premium remained broadly unchanged.

Supplemental material, Sutherland_appendix for Improving poverty reduction in Europe: What works best where? by Holly Sutherland, Chrysa Leventi and Iva Valentinova Tasseva in Journal of European Social Policy

We provide evidence of the relative cost-effectiveness of different types of policy instrument in reducing poverty or limiting its increase, comparing within and between seven diverse EU countries. We do that by measuring the implications of increasing/reducing the instrument size within its national context, using microsimulation methods. We consider commonly-applied policy instruments with a direct effect on household income: child benefits, minimum income components of social assistance, income tax lower thresholds and minimum wages and a benchmark case of changing the size of the whole tax-benefit system. We find that the assessment of the most cost effective instrument may depend on the measure of poverty used and the direction and scale of the change. Nevertheless, our results indicate that the options that reduce poverty most cost-effectively in most countries are increasing child benefits and social assistance while reducing the former is a particularly poverty-increasing way of making budgetary cuts.

We summarise and decompose changes in the household disposable income distribution in 2007-2011 across 27 EU countries to study the impact of the Great Recession on household incomes and the key factors contributing to it. Using microsimulation techniques and applying the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD in combination with EUSILC household micro-data, we separate direct (first-order) effects of tax-benefit policy on the income distribution from the effects of changes in household market incomes and characteristics. There is substantial variation in income dynamics between and within countries. We find that in most countries, changes in market income and population characteristics had a poverty- and inequality-increasing effect, while policies were more often poverty- and inequality-reducing. However, there is no clear country-level correlation between the two effects in this period.

More than half of the EU countries have become poorer and more unequal since the start of the crisis in 2008. Despite lack of timely household micro data, using microsimulation techniques with up-to-date information on policy rules enables us to estimate the direct effect of tax-benefit policy changes in 2008-2014 on the income distribution, poverty and inequality levels in 10 EU countries, as well as track most recent trends by evaluating policy effects in 2013-2014. We identify and quantify these effects using the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD to construct relevant counterfactual scenarios. Our results indicate that among these countries, most managed to pursue policies without adverse distributional effects, despite of challenging economic problems in this period. However, this has been accompanied by reductions in household income in several countries. There have also been some cases of clearly regressive changes in particular policy instruments. Overall, our results demonstrate the importance of comprehensive regular indexation to avoid the erosion of benefit amounts and tax thresholds over time, and specific population groups systematically gaining or losing relative to others.

Using the tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD and Family Resources Survey, we investigate what would have happened to child poverty in the UK in the periods 2010/11–2015/16 and 2015/16–2020/21 under a range of different indexation scenarios of children’s benefits. We find that between 2010/11 and 2015/16 both the relative and absolute child poverty rates would have been lower if children’s benefits were uprated by RPI or if the government had introduced the Child Tax Credit uprating package it promised in 2010. Uprating children’s benefits up to 2020/21 as announced by the government in the Autumn Financial Statement in 2014 would result in real benefit cuts and increase in child poverty. However, triple lock indexation of children’s benefits would sustain their real value and would reduce child poverty rates substantially.

We compare the distributional effects of policy changes introduced in the period 2008-2013 in twelve EU countries using the EU microsimulation model EUROMOD. The countries, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Romania and the UK, chose different policy mixes to achieve varying degrees of fiscal consolidation or expansion. We find that comparisons of the size and distributional effects of policy changes over time are sensitive to the counterfactual assumption that is adopted in adjusting 2008 policies for changes in prices and incomes over the period. Nevertheless, it is clear that the direct tax, public pension and cash benefit changes had broadly progressive effects across the pre-policy change income distributions, except in Germany, Estonia and Lithuania. Including increases in VAT alters the comparative picture by making the policy packages appear more regressive, to varying extents. The paper also explores the implications of the policy changes for measures of risk of poverty and examines the incidence of the changes by age.

Little is known about the effectiveness of means-tested benefits in Bulgaria. Using individual and household level data, I analyse the performance of two social assistance and two means- tested child benefits. I find that the programmes reach a very small proportion of the households with incomes below a relative poverty line. Furthermore, the transfers are characterized with very high non-take up and inclusion of non-entitled or non-poor recipients. Poverty rates decrease by a small degree among benefit clients and yet, the impact is insufficient to affect overall poverty, or for the benefits to achieve their ultimate goals.