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By 1985, approximately 400,000 ha of the keystone species Shinnery oak's (Quercus havardii) historic distribution had been eliminated for agricultural purposes across the southwestern United States. These trends indicate a need for targeted conservation and restoration efforts, especially considering the increased attention received for its role in providing habitat for endangered fauna. Setting spatially explicit conservation targets can be challenging for species with limited distributions, as the change in climate conditions over time may disconnect the relationship between environmental suitability and static, topo‐edaphic factors. Our objective was to identify areas for Shinnery oak restoration and conservation and explore the role climate plays in determining these areas while considering topo‐edaphic relationships. We constructed ecological niche models to estimate Shinnery oak's distribution under current climate conditions and temporally transferred our model using an ensemble‐mean of general circulation models to identify areas predicted to retain environmental suitability for Shinnery oak through 2100. The current distribution model was best informed by one climate and two topo‐edaphic variables. We created a second distribution model excluding topo‐edaphic variables to estimate future plant–climate relationships. Incorporating insights from models informed by both static (e.g. soil) and dynamic (e.g. climate) variables, we identified areas for conservation characterized by persistent climate suitability and high soil type suitability. Lastly, we incorporated data on land use and ownership to explore socio‐ecological influences on management decisions. By identifying areas of agreement between our modeled distributions and considering social context, we prioritized conservation areas where environmental suitability persists under changing conditions to facilitate restoration success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat selection by animals is a complex, dynamic process that can vary across spatial and temporal scales. Understanding habitat selection is a vital component of managing endangered species. Ocelots (Leopardus pardalis), a medium-sized endangered felid, overlap in their northern range with bobcats (Lynx rufus) and coyotes (Canis latrans), with all three species sharing similar space and resource use. As the potential for competition between these three carnivores is high, understanding differences in habitat use and the effect of these potential competitors on habitat selection of ocelots is essential to conservation. Our objective was to compare habitat selection between species and examine if ocelots avoided areas used by competitors at broad and fine scales. We captured and collared 8 ocelots, 13 bobcats, and 5 coyotes on the East Foundation's El Sauz Ranch and the Yturria San Francisco Ranch in South Texas, USA from 2017 to 2021. We compared 2nd (position of home range) and 3rd (use within the home range) order selection across species and examined whether ocelots avoided areas categorized as high probability of use by bobcats and coyotes across both orders of selection. We found a preference for heterogeneous landscapes by bobcats and coyotes while ocelots were strongly tied to woody cover across both orders. At the 2nd order, ocelots selected areas with higher probability of use by bobcats and showed no response to higher probability of use by coyotes, suggesting ocelots did not avoid either species. However, at the 3rd order, ocelots avoided areas used by coyotes. Ocelots selected for areas of use by bobcats at the 2nd order and 3rd order. Results suggest that at the broader scale, placement of the home range is not affected by the presence of sympatric carnivores, however, at a finer scale, ocelots are avoiding coyotes but not bobcats. Our study emphasizes the importance of woody and herbaceous cover at the broad scale and dense vegetation at the finer scale to sustain ocelots. In addition, we show differing patterns of interspecific avoidance by ocelots across species and scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comparative study is done between two alternate regimes of carrying out fiscal policy over the business cycle. The first regime, suggested by Ramsey which completely smooth the taxes, is preferred in long run than the second regime by Gramm-Rudman-Hollings GRH in which debt accumulation is financed by tax hikes in future which is good only in short term.

Twenty-four undergraduates were assigned to two groups to determine if the T3 computerized finger-tapping task could discriminate between persons motivated to perform optimally and those motivated to perform sub-optimally. Group HI was instructed to simulate a head-injured person undergoing an insurance evaluation, whereas group J was instructed to simulate an applicant undergoing a job interview. Group HI tapped slower, demonstrated less fatigue, less similarity between their right- and left-hand performance, and showed less of a speed advantage for the preferred hand. While group HI displayed less variability for the non-preferred hand, the groups did not differ on variability for the preferred hand. Therefore, the T3 successfully discriminates on multiple measures between persons simulating optimal and sub-optimal performance. Keywords: finger tapping; sub-optimal performance; simulation

As effects of climate change intensify, there is a growing need to understand the thermal properties of landscapes and their influence on wildlife. A key thermal property of landscapes is vegetation structure and composition. Management approaches can alter vegetation and consequently the thermal landscape, potentially resulting in underappreciated consequences for wildlife thermoregulation. Consideration of spatial scale can clarify how management overlaid onto existing vegetation patterns affects thermal properties of landscapes relevant to wildlife. We examined effects of temperature, fire management, and vegetation structure on multi‐scale habitat selection of an ectothermic vertebrate (the turtle Terrapene carolina triunguis) in the Great Plains of the central United States by linking time‐since‐fire data from 18 experimental burn plots to turtle telemetry locations and thermal and vegetation height data. Within three 60‐ha experimental landscapes, each containing six 10‐ha sub‐blocks that are periodically burned, we found that turtles select time‐since‐fire gradients differently depending on maximum daily ambient temperature. At moderate temperatures, turtles selected sub‐blocks with recent (<1 year) time‐since‐fire, but during relatively hot and cool conditions, they selected sub‐blocks with later (2–3 year) time‐since‐fire that provided thermal buffering compared with recently burned sub‐blocks. Within 10‐ha sub‐blocks, turtles selected locations with taller vegetation during warmer conditions that provided thermal buffering. Thermal performance curves revealed that turtle activity declined as temperatures exceeded ~24–29°C, and on "heat days" (≥29°C) 73% of turtles were inactive compared with 37% on non‐heat days, emphasizing that thermal extremes may lead to opportunity costs (i.e., foregone benefits turtles could otherwise accrue if active). Our results indicate that management approaches that promote a mosaic of vegetation heights, like spatiotemporally dynamic fire, can provide thermal refuges at multiple spatial scales and thus be an actionable way to provide wildlife with multiple thermal options in the context of ongoing and future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil's government debt, financial indexation, inflation and intertemporal solvency are studied. Temporal causality of expenditures, taxation and real indexation are studied using an error-correction model. Decreases in real indexation came after the rise in government spending during 1986-1991. These reductions implicitly stood as defaults while serving as part of anti-inflation plans. Brazil ended up with a backward financial indexation since the policy could not survive in the long-run.

This paper examines the linkages between government expenditures and current account balances in several Latin American economies, over the period 1974-1984. In theory, these linkages critically depend on private sector responses to changes in government expenditures, on both the demand and supply sides. The analysis provides evidence that the negative current account government expenditure linkage is much stronger in the event of a temporary shock to government expenditures than in the event of a permanent shock. The source of this differential response appears to be primarily on the expenditure side, suggesting that private sectors in Latin America incorporate the present discounted value (rather than simply the current value) of government expenditures into their expenditure decisions. Key words: Intertemporal optimization; Dependent economy model; Real exchange rate; Traded and nontraded goods: Bequest motive; Current account; Beveridge-Nelson decomposition

The size of the federal budget deficit has alarmed politicians and the general public both. Following recent work, we examine the long-run solvency of the U.S. government by testing for cointegration of federal expenditures and revenues. We include a break term in the cointegrating recession for 1981 to capture a shift in the fiscal process in the first Reagan administration. Tests show the break to be significant; and with the break, in contrast to earlier work, expenditures and revenues are cointegrated with a coefficient of one. Thus, we find the deficit to be stationary and so potentially sustainable., I. INTRODUCTION Since the early 1980s, the U.S. federal government has run unprecedented peacetime deficits. The size of these deficits became a major issue in recent U.S. presidential elections. For [...]

This paper examines the breakdown of the Brazilian government's budget-balance mechanism, which began in the mid-1980s. The Brazilian government became unable to balance its budget through tax increases or expenditure decreases. Evidence presented in this paper suggests that the government began to rely on unannounced reductions in the indexed inflation compensation on its debt. These reductions can be thought of as an implicit default on domestically held debt. While the 'temporary asset freeze' of the March 1990 Collor plan was a highly publicized instance of such a default, it was not the first.