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George G. Szpiro: Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty. Three Centuries of Economic Decision Making. Columbia University Press, New York, 2020

A „valószínűség” és a „kockázat” kifejezésekhez a tudományos és a hétköznapi szóhasználat egyaránt többféle értelmet vagy jelentésárnyalatot társít, hasonlóan az olyan szavakhoz, mint például az „erő”, a „munka”, a „tömeg”, a „nyomás”, amelyeknek eredeti, hétköznapi jelentései, jelentésárnyalatai mellett szintén létezik egy, mérési eljárás révén pontosan definiált tudományos, fizikai értelme. A hétköznapi használat sokfélesége többnyire nem okoz gondot, mert a kontextus pontosíthatja a jelentést, vagy legfeljebb a hétköznapokban tetten érhető félreértésekhez vezet. A tudományos nyelvhasználatban azonban problémát okozhat, ha a hétköznapitól egyértelműen eltérően, de egyszerre több, egymástól is különböző jelentésben használnak párhuzamosan egy fogalmat. A mai napig ez jellemző a valószínűség és a kockázat értelmezéseire. A koncepciók a tudomány történelmi fejlődése során is változtak, illetve többszöri újradefiniálásuk miatt azonos időpontban is több értelemben használatosak. Szerencsésebb és kevésbé félrevezető lett volna, ha a véletlen tömegjelenségek vizsgálatával foglalkozó szakterület számára egy köznapi jelentéssel nem terhelt szakterminust vezetnek be. A fenti problémák miatt hasznos lehet az eltérő értelmezések áttekintése. Jelen rövid írás a történeti részletek, vitapontok és részletes hivatkozások mellőzésével a két fogalom tudományon belüli főbb megközelítéseit, valamint a jellemzőbb hétköznapi használatát mutatja be.

A Statisztikai Szemle és publikációs környezete történetének részleges feldolgozására az idei, 100. évfolyamban három tanulmány vállalkozott. Áprilisban jelent meg Horváth Balázsnak az 1923 és 1945 közötti időszakkal foglalkozó cikke, a szeptemberi számban pedig a folyóirat nyolcadik főszerkesztője, Lakatos Miklós írt az 1946 és 1989 közötti időszakról. Jelen tanulmány az 1990-től napjainkig terjedő periódussal foglalkozik, bemutatva a folyóirat rovatfelépítésének átalakulását, valamint utalva a változó kutatási témakörök, statisztikai módszerek a lapban történő megjelenésére.

Napjaink statisztikai mutatokat felhasznalo gazdasagi-tarsadalmi elemzeseinek egyik jellegzetessege a konkret, kezzelfoghato eredeti adatok helyettesitese kevesbe megfoghato kompozit indikatorokkal, amik a megfigyelesi egysegeket rangsoroljak vagy valamilyen merőszammal irjak le. Nehany kozismert peldat megnevezve, oktatasi intezmenyek minősegi rangsorai, vilagvarosok elhetősege, varosok biztonsaga, varosok okossaga, orszagok innovativitasa, korhazi teljesitmeny rangsorolasa, emberi fejlettseg indexe, orszagok versenykepessege altalaban sok (ami a nehanytol a sokszazig terjed) valtozo figyelembe vetelevel kepzett mutatokkal tortenik. Az ilyen elemzesek egy reszeben raadasul kozvetlenul nem merhető, sokszor bizonytalan koncepciokat irnak le, a kozvetlen merhetőseg hianyaban helyettesitő (proxy) valtozokkal, amelyek alkalmassaga sokszor megkerdőjelezhető, es amelyek eltavolitjak egymastol a koncepciot es az adatot. A tanulmany a kompozit mutatok es helyettesitő valtozok elterjedesenek okaival, kovetkezmenyeivel, problemaival foglalkozik. One of the striking contemporary features of the empirical data analysis is the substitution of basic, concrete and evident indicators of the observational units with complex or composite indicators. These composite indicators may contain only two or three basic indicators (like body mass index from the weight and height of a person), but the number of indicators amalgamated into one composite indicator can be more hundreds, even more thousands too. Another contemporary feature of the empirical data analysis is the detachment of data and the concept from each other. To mention some common example, researchers speak about the quality of research, and they use citation data; they think about the social capital, and they use the average number of Facebook connection; they speak about the quality of universities, and they use indicators, such as the ratio of students and professors, revenues, number of publication, proportion of foreign professors and students. The paper deals with the reasons and consequences of the intensive use of composite indicators and proxy variables.

The study examines the appearance of Industry 4.0 and digitalization in the food industry that is not typically considered high-tech. Our aim was to point out that Industry 4.0 is also present in the food industry and offers many opportunities in two areas that are a particular focus of this industry: increasing traceability and food safety. During the research, we asked seven companies about their digital development and Industry 4.0 experience. We have explored the factors that drive companies to adopt digital solutions and the technologies that have been applied. Our results show that companies, not consciously moving towards Industry 4.0 but taking advantage of the opportunities offered by digitalization, are making improvements, often with a lack of workforce, eager to reach higher efficiency and thus competitiveness, as well as to serve the company's growth strategy.

Johann Heinrich von Thunen’s classic work, the Isolated state stays in the library of the great unread books. Thunen is mostly known from secondary and tertiary interpretations, which are sometimes superficial or misleading. Thunen’s the Isolated state has almost 700 pages, the most comprehensive German edition has 1260 pages, but the typical interpretation concentrates only on the first page which introduces the basic assumptions and the graphical presentation of the results. It is altogether three pages of the book, less than a three thousandth part of it. However, the methodology, the comparison of the theory and the empirics, the critical examination of the assumptions by Thunen are mostly neglected. The aim of this contribution is the systematic reconstruction of Thunen’s theory in accordance with the original work. Thunen’s work is both theoretical, i.e. abstract and general, and applied, i.e. concrete, historical and descriptive. The theoretical character is attributable to the systematic and general examination of the influencing factors of land use. Since these factors are general and eternal categories of human economic activity, which are independent from the historical time and actual geographical space, the theory is applicable always and everywhere. Only the context, the actual manifestation of these general categories will be different in different times and spaces: transport costs, production technology, products, climatic circumstances, relative prices and so on. Thunen was aware of the fact, that his model is an idealisation of the agricultural landuse pattern: “The abstraction from reality without which we cannot come to any scientific knowledge has several dangers, namely: (1) We separate in thought what is in fact mutually interrelated. (2) Our conclusions rest upon assumptions of which we are not clearly conscious and which we therefore do not make expressly, and we then consider as generally true what is true only under these specific assumptions. The history of economics gives us many striking examples.” (Thunen 1930, 407–408.) He examines thoroughly the differences between his idealisation and reality.

Bidimensional regression is a method developed by Waldo Tobler for comparing the degree of resemblance between two two-dimensional configurations of points or surfaces. It is an extension of linear regression where each variable is a pair of values representing a location in a two-dimensional space. Bidimensional regression numerically compares the similarity between two-dimensional surfaces through an index called bidimensional correlation. The aim of the study is the general description of the method, and to present examples of its application with the help of some real data, that of the Hungarian railway time space

The aim of this study is to discuss the differences between geographical, network, time and cost distances by the help of a small part of the Hungarian railway network. The source of data is the timetable of Hungarian Railway. In the first section the outline of the paper will be given. The second section deals with the validity of metrical axioms in time and cost space. Time and cost space are more complex than geographical space, because there is just one and only air kilometers and the kilometer distance between points of network can be determined more or less exactly. Time distances and cost distances fall into an interval and at best only about shortest or typical distances, shortest or typical lengths of time and least or typical costs can be spoken. The third and fourth sections compare the geographical space and the time and cost spaces, first by the help of detour indices and then with multidimensional scaling.

The aim of the paper is to give an outline of the relation between general epistemology and the epistemology of economics. The epistemology of economics can be treated starting from the 'general epistemology of science' and from the subject of the investigation, namely the problems of economics itself. Starting from the general or subject-independent epistemology one can make an attempt to adapt to economics various methodological approaches which were practically created to take only the subject of physics or mathematics into consideration. The characteristic feature of this mentality is often methodological monism, a doctrine which implicitly or explicitly states the unity of epistemology in all disciplines. In methodological writings of economics, beside the supporters of some general epistemological viewpoints, there are serious critics of them on behalf of methodologists who start their researches based on economics. Methodological pluralism does not reject the importation of methodological ideas from other branches of knowledge in an aprioristic way. However, the uncritical adoption of the methodology of physical sciences or 'general' methodology leads to the realm of inadequacy and dogmatism. According to methodological pluralism, every research has to choose its methods and methodology conforming to the nature of its own problems. The theoretical consequences of methodological monism are not always obvious. Inappropriate methodology can lead to inappropriate theories and inappropriate practical decisions. The negative consequences of formalism will be illustrated by some spatial economic issues in the field of money and price theory, such as the empirical empty doctrine of purchasing power parity and the theory of optimal currency areas. Since neoclassical mainstream is monist, therefore the critique of monism is at the same time the critique of the method of neoclassical mainstream.

A gravitációs modellt az elnevezése és története miatt fizikai analógián alapuló területi elemzési módszerként tartják számon, ami gyakran vezetett a modell elméleti alátámasztásával és gyakorlati használhatóságával kapcsolatos félreértésekhez. Jelen tanulmányban a szerző vizsgálja a modellnek a gravitációs törvény létezésétől teljesen független elméleti alátámasztásának a kérdését, majd a modell és a törvény összehasonlításával bemutatásra kerülnek lényeges és többnyire a törvénytől különböző tulajdonságai, amelyeket a modell alkalmazása és eredményeinek értelmezése során kell figyelembe venni.

Airports have an unquestionably dominant role in the transport of the 21st century; air transport is the heart of the modern, globalised economy. Beyond this primary function, the international literature also emphasises the considerable economic and economy development effects of airports. The significant airports of the world not only facilitate the local economy but fundamentally determine that. The aim of the analysis is not only the study of the economic impact of the Budapest Ferihegy International Airport, but also examining the economic impact of the complex system of the companies operating at the airport and complementing each other. First of all, we discuss the methods and concepts to be applied in the analysis of the economic impact of the Budapest Airport. Although the methods and the terminology is fairly uniform in the course of the general review studies, the actual pieces of research can mean something different by the same concepts or they may examine the same thing with different concepts.

There is a very well known fundamental problem in spatial data analysis namely that all results of quantitative methods are potencially influenced by the way of spatial delimitation. This problem is mostly called modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). However, beside the rich tradition in the empirical spatial data analysis, the effect of MAUP on putting forward and testing a theory and the effect on model-building is an issue rarely investigated. The MAUP creates the need for the investigation of the connection between theories and data and the micro-macro dualism. My paper presents the epistemological background of the problem and gives illustrations of the negative consequences of ignoring them in regional macroeconomics.

The analysis of the regional inequality is essential for a country and it is also an important question whether the inequalities are growing or decreasing. The first, shorter part of the paper provides a number of reflections of the existing methods of the examinations of intertemporal change of spatial differences of various socio-economic indicators, mainly the per capita income. The diverse growth rate of spatial income level of various spatial units (regions, countries, provinces, counties etc.) is a historical-statistical fact which refers to an unrepeatable, unique and particular historical situation. The descriptions of the convergence or divergence of various spatial units in various time periods contribute to our historical knowledge and help to evaluate the effectiveness of regional policy. The subject of the second, larger part of our study is the regional disparities in Hungary. Our approach is mainly historical- descriptive, but by the help of Hungarian case study many theoretical issues will be presented also. The regional comparison includes the economic development of Central Hungary, Central Transdanubia, Western Transdanubia, Southern Transdanubia, Northern Hungary, Northern Great Plain, Southern Great Plain. Our study primarily analyses the macrostructure of the seven Hungarian regions between 1990 and 2010. It includes the social factors of Hungary such as the population allocation, the labour market situation, income and living conditions and some general economic indicators. These indicators are all the essential indices for the analysis of the economy of a country. If we examine a longer period, we can observe the changes whether the inequalities have grown or decreased and how large the changes are. With the help of these indicators we have tried to prove that the regional inequalities have grown in the last twenty years.