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Introduction Menthol cigarette bans have been implemented in some US states and localities, and a federal ban is being proposed by the FDA. This study asks how young adults who use menthol cigarettes respond to changes in menthol cigarette availability. Aims and Methods An online survey of young adults ages 18–34 who reported smoking menthol cigarettes on ≥7 of 30 days around Thanksgiving 2019 (n  = 734), oversampling Massachusetts—the first state with a menthol ban. Participants reported their tobacco use behavior following real-world menthol cigarette bans or predicted their behavior under a hypothetical federal ban. Results Most respondents who exclusively smoked versus dual used with e-cigarettes continued smoking/using combustible tobacco following real-world bans (95.3% vs. 86.9%), accessing menthol cigarettes from other jurisdictions. Fewer who smoked exclusively responded by using e-cigarettes compared to those who dual used (3.9% vs. 43.7%). Quitting all tobacco use (ie, no smoking, vaping, or any tobacco use) was uncommon for both groups (3.6% vs. 9.0%). Under a hypothetical ban, majorities of those who exclusively smoke and who dual use predicted they would continue smoking (72.2% vs. 71.8%); fewer who smoke exclusively would use e-cigarettes compared to those who dual use (14.7% vs. 41.4%). Those who smoke exclusively were more likely to report quitting all tobacco compared to those who dual use (29.6% vs. 12.4%). Conclusions Under real-world and hypothetical menthol cigarette bans, most respondents continued smoking. However, more young adults continued smoking following real-world bans, reflecting the limitations of local/state restrictions when menthol cigarettes are available in other jurisdictions. Implications This survey asked young adults who use menthol cigarettes how they responded to real-world changes in the availability of menthol cigarettes; 89% reported continuing to smoke. Those who smoked exclusively were far less likely to respond by switching to e-cigarettes compared to people who dual used both products. Under a hypothetical federal menthol cigarette ban, 72% of young adults predicted that they would continue smoking. Quitting all tobacco was less common in the real-world scenario compared to the hypothetical ban. Access to menthol cigarettes in other jurisdictions and flavored cigars likely dampen the public health benefit of menthol cigarette bans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding social-ecological systems (SESs) is an important part of ecosystem-based management (EBM). One of the main decision support frameworks to develop scientific advice for EBM is integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs). Human dimensions in SESs are primarily captured through indicators derived from three social sciences: economics, anthropology, and sociology. The breadth of social sciences and humanities (SSH) research is much greater than those three fields, but they are generally underused in natural science-based decision support processes such as IEAs. Greater contributions of SSHs can enhance IEAs through various direct (e.g. to develop indicators) and indirect ways (e.g. to establish and maintain ethical practices). We examine a wider range of SSH disciplines and conclude that scientific advice processes that inform EBM can benefit from broader integration of SSH theories and methods through themes of contextualizing, facilitating, communicating, evaluating, and anticipating. We see this an opportunity to both widen the vocabulary used to describe social scientists and those who work in humanities in IEAs, and apply the underlying worldviews used to conduct SSH research to fundamentally enhance the IEA process and to further progress in EBM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Lung Working Group age-period-cohort methodology to study smoking patterns can be applied to tackle important issues in tobacco control and public health. This paper summarizes the analyses of smoking patterns in the U.S. by race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and family income and for each of the 50 U.S. states using the CISNET Lung Working Group age-period-cohort approach. We describe how decision makers, policy advocates, and researchers can use the sociodemographic analyses in this supplement to project state smoking trends and develop effective state-level tobacco control strategies. The all-cause mortality RR estimates associated with smoking for U.S. race/ethnicity and education groups are also discussed in the context of research that measures and evaluates health disparities. Finally, the application of the CISNET Lung Working Group age-period-cohort methodology to Brazil is reviewed with a view to how the same types of analyses can be applied to other low- and middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smoking prevalence has decreased considerably in Brazil from 34.8% in 1989 to 12.6% in 2019 owing to the implementation of strong tobacco control policies. However, recent data show that the downward trend may be stagnating. Detailed analyses of historical smoking patterns by birth cohort could guide tobacco control decision making in Brazil. Using the 2008 Global Adult Tobacco Survey and the 2013 and 2019 National Health Surveys, historical smoking patterns in Brazil were estimated, supplemented with data from the 2006‒2019 Surveillance System of Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Interviews. Age‒period‒cohort models with constrained natural splines were applied to estimate the annual probabilities of smoking initiation and cessation, current smoker prevalence, and mean cigarettes smoked per day by age, gender, and birth cohort. Analysis was conducted in 2021‒2022. Current smoker prevalence has declined considerably since the 1950 and 1955 birth cohorts for males and females, respectively, reflecting decreased smoking initiation and increased smoking-cessation probabilities over time. Among female cohorts born on or after 2000, smoking initiation may be increasing even as their smoking cessation has increased considerably. Mean cigarettes smoked per day has remained relatively constant across period and cohorts, showing only a minor decrease among males. These detailed cohort-specific smoking parameters can be used to inform models that evaluate the impact of tobacco use and policies on long-term health outcomes and guide public health decision making in Brazil. Stagnant mean cigarettes smoked per day, increasing female smoking initiation, and limited improvement in male cessation among recent cohorts present challenges to tobacco control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Experts recommend integrating smoking-cessation treatments within U.S. mental health settings, but the population health benefits of doing so have not been estimated. This study simulates the impact of widespread cessation treatment for patients with depression under best-case treatment and maximum potential cessation scenarios.Methods: Cessation interventions were simulated for U.S. adult smokers seeing a health professional for depression from 2020 to 2100. Interventions included (1) Any Treatment (behavioral counseling, pharmacological, combination) and (2) Pharmacological Treatment (including counseling), combined with increased mental health service utilization each. These were compared with a maximum potential cessation scenario where all patients with major depression quit smoking. Analyses were conducted in 2016-2020.Results: Widespread uptake of Any Treatment among patients with depression would avert 32,000 deaths and result in 138,000 life-years gained by 2100; Any Treatment combined with 100% mental health service utilization would result in 53,000 and 231,000, respectively. Pharmacological Treatment would avert 125,000 deaths, with 540,000 life-years gained. Pharmacological Treatment combined with 100% mental health service utilization would result in 203,000 deaths averted and 887,000 life-years gained. Health gains under best-case treatment scenarios represent modest fractions of those projected under maximum potential cessation scenarios at current mental health service utilization levels (835,000 deaths averted, 3.73 million life-years gained) and at 100% utilization (1.11 million deaths averted, 5.07 million life years gained).Conclusions: Providing smoking-cessation treatment to patients with depression and increasing mental health service utilization would reduce the toll of tobacco on this population. These gains would be considerably larger if cessation treatments were more effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims: Reports of youth e‐cigarette use often do not disaggregate by underlying smoking status. This study compared annual 2014–19 youth estimates of past 30‐day e‐cigarette use prevalence and frequency by smoking status in the United States. Design Nationally representative, cross‐sectional, school‐based survey [National Youth Tobacco Surveys (NYTS)]. General linear models accounting for complex survey design compared e‐cigarette use prevalence by smoking status by year, overall and stratified by frequency, separately for high school (HS) and middle school (MS) students. The 2019 survey was analyzed separately because of its change in survey methodology. Setting: MSs and HSs in the United States. Participants: A total of 116 704 students from 1268 schools, ages 9–19. Measurements Students self‐reported (paper 2014–18, electronic 2019) ever and past 30‐day (current) use of e‐cigarettes and cigarettes, as well as frequent use (20–30 days of month). Findings From 2014 to 2018, current e‐cigarette use prevalence increased among never, current and former smokers in HS, but only among never and current smokers in MS (each P‐value < 0.001). E‐cigarette use increases for current HS smokers were primarily among frequent e‐cigarette users. In 2018, the absolute number of HS frequent users who were never or former smokers (420 000 combined) surpassed current smokers (370 000). In 2019, current e‐cigarette use prevalence for never, former and current smokers was 17.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 16.0–19.0], 53.6% (95% CI = 45.2–61.9) and 85.8% (95% CI = 81.6–89.9) for HS students, respectively, and 6.8% (95% CI = 5.9–7.7), 40.8% (95% CI = 34.7–47.0) and 78.0% (95% CI = 71.9–84.2) for MS students. That year, the number of HS never (420 000) and former smokers (570 000) using e‐cigarettes frequently eclipsed that of current smokers (390 000). Conclusions: E‐cigarette use prevalence and frequency among youth vary by smoking status, with highest levels of use among current smokers. However frequent e‐cigarette use among never smokers and former smokers has increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smoking cessation doubled in this subgroup, though on a slightly different timeline: rates rose from 15.9% in 2015 (95%CI: 9.3, 22.6) to 33.5% in 2018 (95%CI: 22.5, 44.5). The 2009-2010 sample-weighted prevalence of ever-smoking was 58.8% for those with SPD (95%CI: 53.2%, 64.5%) versus 33.1% for those without (95%CI: 32.1%, 34.1%). While 28.7% (95%CI: 23.3, 34.1) of young adults with SPD smoked in 2017-2018, this prevalence would have been 37.4% if only initiation rates had changed post-2010, versus 37.7% if only cessation rates had changed (see Table 1). [Extracted from the article]

Background: Nicotine vaping products (NVPs) are increasingly popular worldwide. They may provide public health benefits if used as a substitute for smoking, but may create public health harms if used as a gateway to smoking or to discourage smoking cessation. This paper presents the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM), a user-friendly model which estimates the public health implications of NVPs in the USA. Methods: SAVM adopts a cohort approach. We derive public health implications by comparing smoking- and NVP-attributable deaths and life-years lost under a No-NVP and an NVP Scenario. The No-NVP Scenario projects current, former, and never smoking rates via smoking initiation and cessation rates, with their respective mortality rates. The NVP Scenario allows for smoking- and NVP-specific mortality rates, switching from cigarette to NVP use, separate NVP and smoking initiation rates, and separate NVP and smoking cessation rates. After validating the model against recent US survey data, we present the base model with extensive sensitivity analyses. Results: The SAVM projects that under current patterns of US NVP use and substitution, NVP use will translate into 1.8 million premature smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths avoided and 38.9 million life-years gained between 2013 and 2060. When the NVP relative risk is set to 5%, the results are sensitive to the level of switching and smoking cessation rates and to a lesser extent smoking initiation rates. When the NVP relative risk is raised to 40%, the public health gains in terms of averted deaths and LYL are reduced by 42% in the base case, and the results become much more sensitive to variations in the base case parameters. Discussion: Policymakers, researchers, and other public health stakeholders can apply the SAVM to estimate the potential public health impact of NVPs in their country or region using their own data sources. In developing new simulation models involving NVPs, it will be important to conduct extensive sensitivity analysis and continually update and validate with new data. Conclusion: The SAVM indicates the potential benefits of NVP use. However, given the uncertainty surrounding model parameters, extensive sensitivity analysis becomes particularly important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of moored Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs) in small-scale fisheries is a potential solution to food security concerns, economic development needs, and the overexploitation of nearshore coastal fisheries in the Eastern Caribbean. However, moored FADs also generate novel and largely unstudied governance challenges involving (1) the provisioning of FADs, (2) fisheries resource appropriation, (3) human wellbeing, and (4) food web impacts. We examine the relative performance of three governance scenarios to address these challenges: private-individual, community-based, and top-down governance. We construct a qualitative network model (QNM) of the fishery based on semi-structured interviews (n = 60) with fishers and fisheries managers, established food web and economic models, and expert knowledge. We simulate the social-ecological impacts of the three governance scenarios. The models suggest that community-based and top-down governance scenarios result in low levels of conflict, but provide limited incentives to develop and maintain moored FADs. The private-individual governance scenario tends to increase conflict and incentives for monitoring FADs, but has no impact on incentives for maintaining and deploying FADs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Simulation models can improve measurement and understanding of mental health conditions in the population. Major depressive episodes are a common and leading cause of disability but are subject to substantial recall bias in survey assessments. This study illustrates the application of a simulation model to quantify the full burden of major depressive episodes on population health in the U.S.Methods: A compartmental model of major depressive episodes that explicitly simulates individuals' under-reporting of past episodes was developed and calibrated to 2005-2017 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health data. Parameters for incidence of a first major depressive episode and the probability of under-reporting past episodes were estimated. Analysis was conducted from 2017 to 2019.Results: The model estimated that 30.1% of women (95% range: 29.0%-32.5%) and 17.4% of men (95% range: 16.7%-18.8%) have lifetime histories of a major depressive episode after adjusting for recall error. Among all adults, 13.1% of women (95% range: 8.1%-16.5%) and 6.6% of men (95% range: 4.0%-8.3%) failed to report a past major depressive episode. Under-reporting of a major depressive episode history in adults aged >65 years was estimated to be 70%.Conclusions: Simulation models can address knowledge gaps in disease epidemiology and prevention and improve surveillance efforts. This model quantifies the under-reporting of major depressive episodes and provides parameter estimates for future research. After adjusting for under-reporting, 23.9% of adults have a lifetime history of major depressive episodes, which is much higher than based on self-report alone (14.0%). Far more adults would benefit from depression prevention strategies than what survey estimates suggest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: There is concern that youth e-cigarette use may serve as a gateway to cigarette smoking, and that nicotine exposure may harm brain development. It is therefore important to know how much nonsmoking youth perceive being exposed to nicotine through e-cigarettes.Methods: Data on smoking and vaping from the 2016 Monitoring the Future survey of eighth, tenth, and 12th grade students were analyzed in 2017. The weighted percentage distributions of self-reported e-cigarette mist last inhaled were calculated according to ever-smoking status and past 30-day smoking frequency. Chi-square tests of the association between smoking status and use of e-cigarettes perceived to contain nicotine, marijuana or hash oil, or just flavoring were performed. Never smokers and regular smokers were compared regarding the type of e-cigarette mist they believe they last used.Results: A significant relationship exists between smoking behavior and reportedly vaping nicotine (p<0.01) or just flavors (p<0.01). With increasing smoking intensity, an increasing proportion of students report they are vaping nicotine; a decreasing proportion report just flavors. Among 12th graders, prevalence of vaping nicotine is lowest among never smokers and non-current smokers (14.3% and 18.1%) and highest among current and frequent smokers (61.3% and 60.9%, p<0.01). Substantially larger proportions of never smokers and 30-day nonsmokers report vaping just flavors (76.0% and 69.6%) compared with regular or frequent smokers (31.0% and 29.3%, p<0.01).Conclusions: Most nonsmoking students perceive limited nicotine exposure from vaping. Future research should evaluate the accuracy of self-reported e-cigarette nicotine content and monitor students who are consciously using nicotine-based e-cigarettes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: We examine the trajectory of adult smoking prevalence in the United States over the period 1990-2014 to investigate whether the smoking cessation rate has changed during this period.Methods: We employ a dynamic model of smoking prevalence, and data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), to estimate the adult cessation rate in 6-year intervals. We use weighted nonlinear least squares to perform the estimation. We then employ a meta-regression model to test whether the cessation rate has increased.Results: The annual cessation rate has increased from 2.4% in 1990 to 4.5% in 2014 according to the NHIS data, and from 3.2% in 2002 to 4.2% in 2014 according to the NSDUH data. The increasing trend is statistically significant (p value = 1.57×10-6) and the two independent surveys produced nearly identical results, which makes it unlikely that our findings are a product of chance.Conclusions: Our analysis finds that the smoking cessation rate in the United States has almost doubled since 1990. This increase is responsible for at least 2 million fewer smokers in 2014. If current conditions persist, by the year 2020 the increase in cessation rates will be responsible for 3.5 million fewer smokers. Our findings can assist in predicting the future path of the smoking epidemic and determining the correct allocation of resources to eradicate it.Implications: We show that the adult smoking cessation rate has greatly increased since 1990. We demonstrate this by studying prevalence trajectories from two independent population surveys, which yielded nearly identical results. Different from other studies, we focus on permanent quit rates (net of relapses) which we estimate from a dynamic model of prevalence. Our results do not stem from self-reported quitting behavior, but from the analysis of observed prevalence and its inherent variability. Our findings can contribute to predicting the future path of the smoking epidemic and to determining the optimal allocation of resources to eradicate it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern approaches to Ecosystem-Based Management and sustainable use of marine resources must account for the myriad of pressures (interspecies, human and environmental) affecting marine ecosystems. The network of feeding interactions between co-existing species and populations (food webs) are an important aspect of all marine ecosystems and biodiversity. Here we describe and discuss a process to evaluate the selection of operational food-web indicators for use in evaluating marine ecosystem status. This process brought together experts in food-web ecology, marine ecology, and resource management, to identify available indicators that can be used to inform marine management. Standard evaluation criteria (availability and quality of data, conceptual basis, communicability, relevancy to management) were implemented to identify practical food-web indicators ready for operational use and indicators that hold promise for future use in policy and management. The major attributes of the final suite of operational food-web indicators were structure and functioning. Indicators that represent resilience of the marine ecosystem were less developed. Over 60 potential food-web indicators were evaluated and the final selection of operational food-web indicators includes: the primary production required to sustain a fishery, the productivity of seabirds (or charismatic megafauna), zooplankton indicators, primary productivity, integrated trophic indicators, and the biomass of trophic guilds. More efforts should be made to develop thresholds-based reference points for achieving Good Environmental Status. There is also a need for international collaborations to develop indicators that will facilitate management in marine ecosystems used by multiple countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: People with serious mental illness experience substantially reduced life expectancy, likely due in part to their higher smoking rates relative to the general population. However, the extent to which smoking affects their life expectancy, independent of mental illness, is unknown. This study quantifies the potential contribution of smoking to reduced life expectancy among individuals with serious psychological distress (SPD), a measure that screens for serious mental illness in national surveys.Methods: A cohort of 328,110 U.S. adults was examined using the 1997-2009 National Health Interview Surveys linked to the 2011 National Death Index. Cox models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for current smoking, former smoking, and SPD and construct life tables by smoking and SPD status. The smoking-attributable fraction of deaths by SPD status was calculated. Analyses were conducted in 2015.Results: Among those with SPD, being a current smoker doubles the risk of death. Current smokers with SPD lose 14.9 years of life relative to never smokers without SPD. Among never smokers, having SPD reduces life expectancy by 5.3 years. Thus, smoking may account for up to two thirds of the difference in life expectancy between smokers with SPD and never smokers without SPD. One third of deaths among those with SPD can be attributed to smoking.Conclusions: The life expectancy difference between current smokers with SPD and never smokers without SPD is primarily due to smoking. Aiding individuals with serious mental illness to avoid smoking will translate into sizeable gains in life expectancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Smokeless tobacco use is becoming an increasingly important public health issue in the US and may influence cigarette smoking behavior. Systematic information on transitions between smokeless tobacco and cigarette use in the US is limited. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of published literature on transitions between smokeless tobacco and cigarette use in the US. We searched PubMed, Web of Science and EbscoHost databases for all published articles from January 2000 to March 2014 that presented estimates of transitions in US youth and adult study populations over time between at least one of the following tobacco use states: exclusive cigarette smoking, exclusive smokeless tobacco use, dual use of both products, and use of neither product. We excluded non-English language studies, studies published before 2000, clinical trials, controlled cessation programs, and clinical studies or evaluations of smokeless tobacco cessation programs. Results: The review identified six studies on US populations published since 2000 with longitudinal data on some or all of the transitions that users can undergo between smokeless tobacco and cigarette use. There was considerable heterogeneity across studies in design and tobacco use definitions. Despite these differences, the existing data indicate that switching behaviors from exclusive smoking to exclusive smokeless tobacco use are limited (adults: 0%-1.4%, adolescents: 0.8%-3.8%) but may be more common from exclusive smokeless tobacco use to exclusive smoking (adults: 0.9%-26.6%, adolescents: 16.6%-25.5%). Among adults, exclusive cigarette smoking was generally stable and consistent (79.7% to 87.6%) over follow-up across studies but less stable in adolescents (46.8%-78.7%). Exclusive smokeless tobacco use was less stable than exclusive cigarette smoking over time (adults: 59.4%-76.6%, adolescents: 26.2%-44.8%). Conclusion: This review provides published estimates of the proportions of adults and adolescents transitioning between tobacco use categories from the most recently available studies on longitudinal transitions between smokeless tobacco and cigarettes in the US. These data can be used to track tobacco use behaviors and evaluate their effect on public health; however, the data for these studies were generally collected more than a decade ago. Additional research including nationally representative longitudinal estimates using consistent definitions and designs, would improve understanding of current tobacco transition behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Namibia is typical of low-income and middle-income countries with growing tobacco use, but with limited capacity to impose comprehensive tobacco control legislation. Despite initiating dialogue on national tobacco control policy in 1991, the country took nearly 20 years to pass the Tobacco Products Control Act. Objective To use Namibia as a case study to illustrate challenges faced by low-income countries working to forward tobacco control legislation. Method Face-to-face and telephonic interviews were conducted with 13 bureaucrats and advocates currently or previously engaged in tobacco-related work in Namibia. Tobacco-related news articles from national newspapers were examined. Results The constitutional obligation of the government to promote public health laid the foundation for Namibia’s tobacco control policy. Staff capacity constraints greatly delayed the passing of tobacco control legislation. It is unclear what influence the tobacco industry's involvement as a stakeholder had on policy; however, in at least one instance, the tobacco industry actively misled government. Namibia’s ratification of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control was instrumental in passing legislation that meets most provisions of the international treaty. The media have generally played a supportive role in pushing the government to pass tobacco control legislation. Conclusions The fact that Namibia was able to pass fairly comprehensive tobacco control legislation with such meagre resources is commendable. The government must now implement the regulations that make the legislation effective. Tobacco control progress in low-income and middle-income nations can be encouraged through use of the media and improved staff and legal capacity within health ministries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about how U.S. smoking patterns of initiation, cessation, and intensity vary by birth cohort across education levels or how these patterns may be driven by other demographic characteristics. Smoking data for adults aged ≥25 years was obtained from the National Health Interview Surveys 1966–2018. Age-period-cohort models were developed to estimate the probabilities of smoking initiation, cessation, intensity, and prevalence by age, cohort, calendar year, and gender for education levels: ≤8th grade, 9th–11th grade, high school graduate or GED, some college, and college degree or above. Further analyses were conducted to identify the demographic factors (race/ethnicity and birthplace) that may explain the smoking patterns by education. Analyses were conducted in 2020–2021. Smoking disparities by education have increased by birth cohort. In recent cohorts, initiation probabilities were highest among individuals with 9th–11th-grade education and lowest among individuals with at least a college degree. Cessation probabilities were higher among those with higher education. Current smoking prevalence decreased over time across all education groups, with important differences by gender. However, it decreased more rapidly among individuals with ≤8th grade education, resulting in this group having the second lowest prevalence in recent cohorts. This may be driven by the increasing proportion of non-U.S. born Hispanics in this group. Although smoking is decreasing by cohort across all education groups, disparities in smoking behaviors by education have widened in recent cohorts. Demographic changes for the ≤8th-grade education group need special consideration in analyses of tobacco use by education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Research has contributed significantly to tobacco control in high-income nations, but has not yet played a comparable role in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). In recent years, efforts have been devoted to building research capacity in LMICs. Using publication in Tobacco Control as a proxy for all tobacco control research, we examine whether research articles authored by scholars from LMICs and about LMIC issues have increased over the Journal's history. Methods We examined every issue of Tobacco Control from 1992 to 2011, coding contributions as to their authorship (LMIC, high-income country, or both), and whether they covered tobacco control issues in LMICs. We included all the following journal categories: Original/Research articles, Brief reports, Reviews, Letters to the editor, Special communications, Commentaries, and Editorials. Results We divided the Journal's first 20 years into four 5-year periods. There was no statistically significant change in LMIC authorship or LMIC issue coverage during the first three periods. From those three periods combined (1992-2006), to the most recent 5-year period (2007-2011), articles including any LMIC authors increased from 7.2% to 22.7% ( p<0.05) of all original research articles; lead authorship by LMIC scholars increased from 4.0% to 13.7% ( p<0.05); and coverage of LMIC issues rose from 10.1% to 30.9% ( p<0.05). Similar findings resulted when combining all the journal categories. Conclusions Efforts to expand research by LMIC authors and about LMIC issues have begun to bear fruit, with a recent substantial increase. Still, the centrality of LMICs in the global tobacco pandemic implies that this progress only begins to address the enormous need. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We determined the distribution of two cryptic mussel species (Mytilus edulisandM. trossulus) along full gradients of wave exposure in northwest Atlantic rocky intertidal habitats. Research was conducted in Nova Scotia (Canada) and Maine (United States) and species were determined using genetic analyses. In very sheltered habitats, onlyM. edulisoccurred. In sheltered, exposed, and very exposed habitats, both species co-existed,M. edulispredominating in Maine andM. trossulusin Nova Scotia. Hybrids were absent or rare. The distribution of mussels regardless of species (Mytilusspp.) was remarkably consistent across levels of wave exposure in both regions. In very sheltered habitats, organisms were large (4–5 cm long, on average) and old (7–8 years, on average) and occurred in low densities. In sheltered, exposed, and very exposed habitats, organisms were small (< 1 cm, on average) and young (1–2 years, on average); density was low in sheltered and very exposed habitats, but high in exposed habitats. Abundance data for predatory snails (dogwhelks,Nucella lapillus) and canopy-forming algae (Ascophyllum nodosumandFucusspp.) suggest that predation and facilitation may explain some of the observed changes in mussel population traits along the wave exposure gradients. Our results could be useful as baseline information to predict the effects of the progressive increase in wave action caused by climate change on intertidal mussel populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Women’s preferences for masculine traits are reported to be greater among young reproductively capable women, particularly just prior to ovulation, than among pregnant and postmenopausal women. This study is the first to investigate whether women’s preferences for men’s facial hair follow this pattern. We conducted surveys quantifying reproductive status and attractiveness ratings for facial hair (clean-shaven, light stubble, heavy stubble, and full beards) among 426 women from Wellington City, New Zealand. Results showed that pregnant, pre- and postmenopausal women rated faces that were clean-shaven, or with light and heavy stubble, as more attractive than full beards. Postmenopausal women gave higher scores for all degrees of facial hair, including full beards, than premenopausal and pregnant women. Premenopausal women at the high fertility phases of the menstrual cycle gave higher ratings for heavy stubble than participants at the low fertility phase or who were using contraceptives. However, these differences were not statistically significant, and the main effects were driven primarily by the low ratings ascribed to full beards. Women with partners that were clean-shaven judged clean-shaven faces as most attractive, whereas women with partners with heavy stubble or full beards judged heavy stubble as most attractive. Although women’s current partner and father’s degree of beardedness were positively correlated, their fathers’ beardedness showed little relationship to attractiveness judgments of facial hair. These results demonstrate that all women by no means consider beards unattractive. However, preferences vary only subtly with respect to hormonal, reproductive, and relationship status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To assess progress in tobacco control policy research and the relevance of research to policymaking. Methods: Over 100 experts were surveyed about their opinions on the body of research existing in 1992 and 2011 concerning 11 areas of tobacco control policy, the state of policy implementation in both years, the extent to which research has affected policy adoption and how experience with policy has influenced research. Case studies of how research and policy implementation have interacted were developed. Results: The body of research was not judged 'substantial' in any of the policy areas in 1992. In 2011, 6 of the 11 areas were evaluated as substantial. None ranked as substantial regarding policy implementation in 1992, but by 2011 half were so ranked for developed countries; in low-income and middle-income countries policy implementation moved from very low to moderate. Respondents judged the role of research in actual policymaking as 'substantial' regarding clean indoor air, taxation and cessation treatment policy. Case studies illustrate how research can directly affect policy (taxation), how policy and research can have iterative effects (clean indoor air), and how research and policy interact in the case of novel policies (graphic cigarette pack warnings). The role of research in the formulation of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control is also examined. Conclusions: Policy research goals established in 1992 have been largely realised. For select tobacco control policies, research has made truly important contributions to saving lives. Evidence-based policy adoption will continue to be essential to minimising the toll of tobacco, especially in the world's poorer countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: U.S. smoking prevalence has been declining over the last several decades. During this time, the population has also experienced changes in its demographic composition, as Americans are living longer and becoming increasingly racially and ethnically diverse. Since smoking rates vary across age and race/ethnicity groups, demographics alone could contribute to changes in smoking prevalence among the general population. We examined the effect of changing age and race/ethnicity distributions on total smoking prevalence from 1980 to 2010. Methods: Using the National Health Interview Survey weighting scheme, we applied the distribution of smokers across age and race/ethnicity categories for the years 1980 and 2010 to the distribution of adults in those categories for both years. The total number of smokers was summed to determine resulting smoking prevalence. Results: The combined effect of aging and the changing racial/ethnic composition of the U.S. population has contributed 2.1% points to the decline in smoking prevalence. If the age and racial/ethnic demographic composition had not changed since 1980, smoking prevalence would have been 21.3% in 2010 (with rounding)—statistically significantly higher than the reported 19.3%. Of the 3 demographic factors we considered (age, race, and ethnicity), ethnicity—specifically the rising share of Hispanics in the population—is the most important contributor to declines in smoking. Conclusions: Our changing demographics have had an impact on smoking prevalence over the last 3 decades. Future declines in smoking may be driven even more by the aging of the population and increasing racial and ethnic diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Youth e-cigarette use has been rising, however U.S. prevalence data are generally reported without disaggregating by individuals' use of other tobacco products. It is not clear how the proportion of youth e-cigarette users naïve to all combustible tobacco is changing.Methods: Annual prevalence estimates of ever and current (defined as past 30-day use) tobacco use prevalence by school type are reported using the 2014-2019 National Youth Tobacco Surveys (NYTS) with mutually exclusive categories of e-cigarette, smokeless tobacco, and/or combustible tobacco product use. T-tests were used to compare annual estimates with the preceding year. The annual percent change (APC) for each category from 2014 to 2018 were analyzed using JoinPoint regression. Data for 2019 were reported separately due to the change in survey format from paper to electronic.Results: Current use of only e-cigarettes among HS students who never used combustible tobacco increased significantly from 2014 to 2018 (APC = +42.4%, 95% CI: 0.7, 101.3); by 2019, prevalence peaked at 9.2% (95% CI: 8.2, 10.2) among never combustible users and 8.3% (95% CI: 7.3, 9.3) among former combustible users. This coincided with significant declines in use of only combustible tobacco (APC = -14.5%, 95% CI: -18.3, -10.5).Conclusions: Use of only e-cigarettes among US youth with no history of combustible tobacco use has increased substantially over time, even as combustible tobacco use continues to decline. Of the 17.5% (95% CI: 15.7, 19.0) of HS students who currently used only e-cigarettes (but not other tobacco) in 2019, more than half have no history of combustible tobacco use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tobacco-related health disparities disproportionately affect smokers with major depression (MD). Although tobacco simulation models have been applied to general populations, to date they have not considered populations with a comorbid mental health condition. We developed and calibrated a simulation model of smoking and MD comorbidity for the US adult population using the 2005-2018 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health. We use this model to evaluate trends in smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable mortality and life-years lost among adults with MD, and changes in smoking prevalence by mental health status from 2018 to 2060. The model integrates known interaction effects between smoking initiation and cessation, and MD onset and recurrence. We show that from 2018 to 2060, smoking prevalence will continue declining among those with current MD. In the absence of intervention, people with MD will be increasingly disproportionately affected by smoking compared to the general population; our model shows that the smoking prevalence ratio between those with current MD and those without a history of MD increases from 1.54 to 2.42 for men and from 1.81 to 2.73 for women during this time period. From 2018 to 2060, approximately 484,000 smoking-attributable deaths will occur among adults with current MD, leading to 11.3 million life-years lost. Ambitious tobacco control efforts could alter this trajectory. With aggressive public health efforts, up to 264,000 of those premature deaths could be avoided, translating into 7.5 million life years gained. This model can compare the relative health gains across different intervention strategies for smokers with MD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to NVPs. Methods: SAVM compares two scenarios. The No-NVP scenario projects smoking rates in the absence of NVPs using population projections, deaths rates, life expectancy, and smoking prevalence. The NVP scenario models vaping prevalence and its impact on smoking once NVPs became popular. NVP use impact is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the No-NVP and NVP scenarios. We illustrate SAVM's adaptation to the German adult ages 18+ population, the Germany-SAVM by adjusting the model using population, mortality, smoking and NVP use data. Results: Assuming that the excess NVP mortality risk is 5% that of smoking, Germany-SAVM projected 4.7 million LYLs and almost 300,000 SVADs averted associated with NVP use from 2012 to 2060. Increasing the excess NVP mortality risk to 40% with other rates constant resulted in averted 2.8 million LYLs and 200,000 SVADs during the same period. Conclusions: SAVM enables non-modelers, policymakers, and other stakeholders to analyze the potential population health effects of NVP use and public health interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: In this paper, we review multi-item measures of tobacco risk perceptions and health beliefs, describe the measures' content and quality, and identify measure development opportunities. Methods: We identified 110 articles that included measures assessing perceptions of tobacco's health effects by combining multiple items into a score. We coded measures' provenance (newly developed vs built on prior measures), content, consistency with risk-perception researcher recommendations (eg, specifying use conditions), samples used, and reliability and validity. Results: Most measures were newly developed or built on the Smoking Consequences Questionnaire. Few measures assessed perceptions of non-cigarette products, and some health harms rarely were assessed. Few measures specified product use conditions. Over half of studies assessed reliability, which was typically high. Most assessed validity by comparing scores by use status, finding mixed results. Conclusions: Several measures of cigarette risk perceptions included a range of health effects and demonstrated reliability and validity, though they had other shortcomings (eg, they did not specify conditions of use). Researchers could help address gaps in measuring tobacco health perceptions by developing quality consensus measures for non-cigarette products, assessing a range of perceived health effects, assessing perceptions relative to other products, specifying use conditions, and showing multiple types of validity in diverse subpopulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Smokeless tobacco use is becoming an increasingly important public health issue in the US and may influence cigarette smoking behavior. Systematic information on transitions between smokeless tobacco and cigarette use in the US is limited.Methods: We conducted a systematic review of published literature on transitions between smokeless tobacco and cigarette use in the US. We searched PubMed, Web of Science and EbscoHost databases for all published articles from January 2000 to March 2014 that presented estimates of transitions in US youth and adult study populations over time between at least one of the following tobacco use states: exclusive cigarette smoking, exclusive smokeless tobacco use, dual use of both products, and use of neither product. We excluded non-English language studies, studies published before 2000, clinical trials, controlled cessation programs, and clinical studies or evaluations of smokeless tobacco cessation programs.Results: The review identified six studies on US populations published since 2000 with longitudinal data on some or all of the transitions that users can undergo between smokeless tobacco and cigarette use. There was considerable heterogeneity across studies in design and tobacco use definitions. Despite these differences, the existing data indicate that switching behaviors from exclusive smoking to exclusive smokeless tobacco use are limited (adults: 0%-1.4%, adolescents: 0.8%-3.8%) but may be more common from exclusive smokeless tobacco use to exclusive smoking (adults: 0.9%-26.6%, adolescents: 16.6%-25.5%). Among adults, exclusive cigarette smoking was generally stable and consistent (79.7% to 87.6%) over follow-up across studies but less stable in adolescents (46.8%-78.7%). Exclusive smokeless tobacco use was less stable than exclusive cigarette smoking over time (adults: 59.4%-76.6%, adolescents: 26.2%-44.8%).Conclusion: This review provides published estimates of the proportions of adults and adolescents transitioning between tobacco use categories from the most recently available studies on longitudinal transitions between smokeless tobacco and cigarettes in the US. These data can be used to track tobacco use behaviors and evaluate their effect on public health; however, the data for these studies were generally collected more than a decade ago. Additional research including nationally representative longitudinal estimates using consistent definitions and designs, would improve understanding of current tobacco transition behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of cigarette smoking on mortality is well studied, with estimates of the relative mortality risks for the overall population widely available. However, age-specific mortality estimates for different sociodemographic groups in the U.S. are lacking. Using the 1987–2018 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files through 2019, all-cause mortality relative risks (RRs) were estimated for current smokers or recent quitters and long-term quitters compared with those for never smokers. Stratified Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate RRs by age, gender, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment. RRs were also assessed for current smokers or recent quitters by smoking intensity and for long-term quitters by years since quitting. The analysis was conducted in 2021–2022. All-cause mortality RRs among current smokers or recent quitters were generally highest for non-Hispanic White individuals than for never smokers, followed by non-Hispanic Black individuals, and were lowest for Hispanic individuals. RRs varied greatly by educational attainment; generally, higher-education groups had greater RRs associated with smoking than lower-education groups. Conversely, the RRs by years since quitting among long-term quitters did not show clear differences across race/ethnicity and education groups. Age-specific RR patterns varied greatly across racial/ethnic and education groups as well as by gender. Age-specific all-cause mortality rates associated with smoking vary considerably by sociodemographic factors. Among high-education groups, lower underlying mortality rates for never smokers result in correspondingly high RR estimates for current smoking. These estimates can be incorporated in modeling analyses to assess tobacco control interventions' impact on smoking-related health disparities between different sociodemographic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

U.S. smoking prevalence varies greatly by race/ethnicity. However, little is known about how smoking initiation, cessation, and intensity vary by birth cohort and race/ethnicity. Adult smoking data were obtained from the 1978–2018 National Health Interview Surveys. Age‒period‒cohort models with constrained natural splines were developed to estimate historical smoking patterns among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander, and non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaskan Native individuals. Annual smoking prevalence and probabilities of smoking initiation, cessation, and intensity by age, year, gender, and race/ethnicity were estimated for the 1900 to 2000 birth cohorts. Analysis was conducted in 2020–2021. Smoking initiation probabilities were highest for the American Indian and Alaskan Native population, second highest among the non-Hispanic White population, and lowest among Asian and Pacific Islander and Hispanic populations across birth cohorts. Historically, initiation probabilities among non-Hispanic Black populations were comparable with those among non-Hispanic White populations but have decreased since the 1970 birth cohort. Cessation probabilities were lowest among American Indian and Alaskan Native and non-Hispanic Black populations and highest among non-Hispanic White and Asian and Pacific Islander populations across cohorts and ages. Initiation and cessation probabilities produce observed patterns of smoking where prevalence among American Indian and Alaskan Native populations is highest across all ages and cohorts. Across cohorts, smoking prevalence among non-Hispanic Black populations, particularly males, is lower than among non-Hispanic White populations at younger ages but higher at older ages. There are important and persistent racial/ethnic differences in smoking prevalence, initiation, cessation, and intensity across U.S. birth cohorts. Targeted interventions should address widening smoking disparities by race/ethnicity, particularly for American Indian and Alaskan Native and non-Hispanic Black populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smoking rates across U.S. states have declined at different rates over time because some states have progressive tobacco control policies, whereas others have yet to adopt them. Therefore, each state has its own unique historical experience of smoking initiation, cessation, and prevalence. This study characterizes smoking histories for each U.S. state by birth cohort. Using 1965–2018 National Health Interview Survey and 1992–2019 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey data, statistical methods applied an age‒period‒cohort modeling framework to reconstruct population-level smoking histories for each state. Smoking initiation, cessation, and intensity by age, gender, and cohort were estimated for each state. These were used to construct state-specific trends in the prevalence of current, former, and never smoking as well as the mean smoking duration and pack years. Analysis was conducted from 2017 to 2022. California and Kentucky, respectively, are exemplar states of more and less aggressive tobacco control. Initiation probabilities were consistently lower in California than in Kentucky, and cessation probabilities were higher. Hence, the smoking prevalence derived from these parameters is higher in Kentucky. The intensity of cigarette smoking was higher in Kentucky than in California, yielding considerably higher estimated pack years when used with the other parameters. Summaries of smoking trends are given for all states. Smoking initiation, cessation, and intensity trends vary substantially across states, resulting in major differences in estimated smoking prevalence, duration, and pack years. Some states show improvements in smoking metrics over time with more recent birth cohorts, but others have shown very little. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the U.S., low-income individuals generally smoke more than high-income individuals. However, detailed information about how smoking patterns differ by income, especially differences by birth cohort, is lacking. Using the National Health Interview Survey 1983–2018 data, individual family income was calculated as a ratio of the federal poverty level. Missing income data from 1983 to 1996 were imputed using sequential regression multivariate imputation. Age‒period‒cohort models with constrained natural splines were used to estimate annual probabilities of smoking initiation and cessation and smoking prevalence and intensity by gender and birth cohort (1900–2000) for 5 income groups: <100%, 100%–199%, 200%–299%, 300%–399%, and ≥400% of the federal poverty level. Analysis was conducted in 2020–2021. Across all income groups, smoking prevalence and initiation probabilities are decreasing by birth cohort, whereas cessation probabilities are increasing. However, relative differences between low- and high-income groups are increasing markedly, such that there were greater declines in prevalence among those in high-income groups in more recent cohorts. Smoking initiation probabilities are lowest in the ≥400% federal poverty level group for males across birth cohorts, whereas for females, this income group has the highest initiation probabilities in older cohorts but the lowest in recent cohorts. People living below the federal poverty level have the lowest cessation probabilities across cohorts. Smoking prevalence has been decreasing in all income groups; however, disparities in smoking by family income are widening in recent birth cohorts. Future studies evaluating smoking disparities should account for cohort differences. Intervention strategies should focus on reducing initiation and improving quit success among low-income groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We performed the first test of predictions from the abundant-centre model using north-west Atlantic coastal organisms. We tested the hypotheses that the density of intertidal mussels (Mytilus edulis and M. trossulus) and dogwhelks (Nucella lapillus) and mussel age and size would peak at an intermediate location along their distribution range. We also assessed the latitudinal variation in critical aerial exposure time. Location North-west Atlantic coast between Newfoundland (Canada) and New York (USA), covering 1800 km of shoreline. Methods Using a nested design, we measured mussel density, age and size and dogwhelk density in 60 wave-exposed rocky intertidal sites spread evenly in six regions. Critical aerial exposure times were determined using online data. Results Mytilus edulis peaked in abundance in Maine and was much less abundant in the other regions. Mytilus trossulus peaked in abundance in southern Nova Scotia and Maine, was less abundant in the other regions to the north, and was absent in the southernmost region (New York). Both mussel species were least abundant in a northern region (Cape Breton), although not in the northernmost region (Newfoundland). Critical aerial exposure times were negatively correlated with overall mussel density. Mussel age and size were similar among regions. Dogwhelks peaked in abundance in Maine and were much less abundant in the other regions, being positively correlated with overall mussel density across regions. Main conclusions Density data for M. edulis and N. lapillus provide limited support for an abundant-centre pattern, while M. trossulus shows a clear rampedsouth distribution. Critical aerial exposure times suggest that physiological stress during summer and winter low tides may be lowest in Maine and southern Nova Scotia, which might partially explain mussel predominance in those regions. Winter ice scour in Cape Breton may explain the abundance trough observed there. Mussel size and age may be more limited by wave exposure at our sites (as they all face open waters) than by regional differences in environmental stress. Dogwhelks, which prey on mussels, seem to respond positively to prey density at the regional scale. Our study supports the notion that, while the abundant-centre model is a useful starting point for research, it often represents an oversimplification of reality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The US Food and Drug Administration announced its intention to ban menthol in cigarettes. However, information is needed on how a federal ban would affect population health.Aims and Methods: We conducted an expert elicitation to gauge the impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar ban in the United States. We developed and pilot tested a questionnaire that focused on tobacco use transitions of current smokers (age 18-24 menthol, age 35-54 menthol, and age 35-54 nonmenthol) and potential menthol smokers (age 12-24). Using a structured expert elicitation, we estimated mean net transitions under a ban from cigarette use to combustible tobacco product, smokeless tobacco, novel nicotine delivery product (NNDPs, such as e-cigarettes) use, or no tobacco use.Results: Eleven experts provided responses. Of those ages 12-24 who would have initiated menthol cigarette use in the absence of a ban, the experts estimated that 41% would still initiate combustible products under a ban, while 18% would initiate with NNDPs and 39% would not initiate regular tobacco use. Combustible use by menthol smokers ages 35-54 was expected to decline by 20% postban relative to preban rates, half switching to NNDPs and half quitting all tobacco use. Menthol smokers ages 18-24 were expected to reduce combustible use by 30%, with 16% switching to NNDPs. Greater reductions in combustible use were estimated for African Americans across the three age groups. Negligible impacts were expected for current adult nonmenthol smokers.Conclusions: According to expert opinion, a menthol ban is expected to substantially reduce smoking initiation and combustible tobacco product use among current menthol smokers.Implications: The US Food and Drug Administration recently announced its intention to ban menthol in cigarettes, but information on the potential impact on smoking and other nicotine product use is limited. We conducted an expert elicitation to gauge the impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar ban in the United States. A panel of experts estimated that menthol smokers ages 35-54 would reduce combustible tobacco use by 20%, with half switching to e-cigarettes and half quitting all nicotine use. Larger reductions were expected at younger ages, and menthol smoking initiation was reduced by 59% with 18% instead using e-cigarettes. African Americans were expected to have greater reductions in combustible tobacco use than the rest of the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We investigated the regional variation in barnacle (Semibalanus balanoides) recruit and adult abundance on the NW Atlantic coast. At the end of the recruitment season (June–July), we sampled wave-exposed rocky intertidal sites in two regions on the open Atlantic coast (Maine, AM, and Nova Scotia, AN) and in two regions on the Gulf of St. Lawrence coast (Northumberland Strait, GN, and Cape Breton Island, GC). Recruit density was highest in the southernmost region (AM), followed by GN and, then, by AN and GC. Regional values of nearshore primary productivity (satellite data of chlorophyll-a concentration, a surrogate for phytoplankton abundance) were highest for AM and GN, suggesting that food supply (barnacles are filter feeders) is an important factor determining regional recruitment patterns. Adult barnacle density was regionally decoupled from recruit density. Adults occurred in very low abundances on the Gulf of St. Lawrence coast (GN and GC) and were relatively abundant on the Atlantic coast (AM and AN), although always in much lower abundances than recruits. The low adult densities on the Gulf of St. Lawrence coast seem to result mainly from intense ice scour, as this coast freezes extensively every winter, as opposed to the ice-free Atlantic coast. Ice scour thus appears to override regional recruitment differences in determining adult density. Therefore, our data suggest that both pelagic food supply and benthic disturbance contribute to setting regional patterns in barnacle population structure on the NW Atlantic coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tobacco control efforts implemented in the United States since the 1960s have led to considerable reductions in smoking and smoking-related diseases, including lung cancer.Objective: To project reductions in tobacco use and lung cancer mortality from 2015 to 2065 due to existing tobacco control efforts.Design: Comparative modeling approach using 4 simulation models of the natural history of lung cancer that explicitly relate temporal smoking patterns to lung cancer rates.Setting: U.S. population, 1964 to 2065.Participants: Adults aged 30 to 84 years.Measurements: Models were developed using U.S. data on smoking (1964 to 2015) and lung cancer mortality (1969 to 2010). Each model projected lung cancer mortality by smoking status under the assumption that current decreases in smoking would continue into the future (status quo trends). Sensitivity analyses examined optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.Results: Under the assumption of continued decreases in smoking, age-adjusted lung cancer mortality was projected to decrease by 79% between 2015 and 2065. Concomitantly, and despite the expected growth, aging, and longer life expectancy of the U.S. population, the annual number of lung cancer deaths was projected to decrease from 135 000 to 50 000 (63% reduction). However, 4.4 million deaths from lung cancer are still projected to occur in the United States from 2015 to 2065, with about 20 million adults aged 30 to 84 years continuing to smoke in 2065.Limitation: Projections assumed no changes to tobacco control efforts in the future and did not explicitly consider the potential effect of lung cancer screening.Conclusion: Tobacco control efforts implemented since the 1960s will continue to reduce lung cancer rates well into the next half-century. Additional prevention and cessation efforts will be required to sustain and expand these gains to further reduce the lung cancer burden in the United States.Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Tobacco use has shifted increasingly from cigarettes to other products. While the focus has been mostly on cigarette-oriented policies, it is important to gauge the effects of policies targeting other products. We review and critique the literature on how policies affect smokeless tobacco (ST).Methods: We conducted a search of the literature on tobacco control policies as they relate to ST use, focusing on tobacco taxes, smoke-free air laws, media campaigns, advertising restrictions, health warnings, cessation treatment policies, and youth access policies. Findings from 78 total studies are summarized.Results: ST taxes, media campaigns, health warnings, and cessation treatment policies were found to be effective tools in reducing ST use. Evidence on the effects of current youth access policies is less strong. Studies have not yet been conducted on marketing or product content restrictions, but the literature indicates that product marketing, through advertising, packaging, flavorings, and extension of cigarette brands, plays an important role in ST use.Conclusions: Although the evidence base is less established for ST policies than for cigarette policies, the existing literature indicates ST use responds to tobacco control policies. Policies should be structured in a way that aims to reduce all tobacco use while at the same time increasing the likelihood that continuing tobacco users use the least risky products.Implications: Studies find that policies targeting smoking and policies targeting smokeless products affect smokeless use, but studies are needed to examine the effect of policies on the transitions between cigarette and smokeless use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cigarette smoking rates are significantly higher among people with serious psychological distress (SPD) compared to the general population. US simulation models that project future smoking disparities by SPD status could inform policy interventions, but have not been developed. We calibrated two compartmental models to the National Health Interview Survey 1997–2018 for populations with and without SPD, calculating smoking prevalence, mortality, and life-years lost by SPD status under different scenarios from 2023 to 2100. Under the Status Quo, smoking prevalence among women with SPD falls from 27.0% in 2023 to 10.7% in 2100 (men: 30.1% to 12.2%). For women without SPD, it declines from 9.4% to 3.1% (men: 11.5% to 4.0%). The absolute difference in smoking prevalence between those with and without SPD decreases over time, whereas the relative smoking prevalence ratio increases. From 2023 to 2100, 609,000 premature smoking-attributable deaths would occur in the SPD population, with 8 million life-years lost. Under an ideal tobacco control scenario for people with SPD, in which all smokers quit in 2023 and no new smoking initiation occurs thereafter, up to 386,000 of these premature deaths could be averted with 4.9 million life-years gained. Preventing smoking initiation could avert up to 18% of these deaths, while improving smoking cessation could avert up to 82%. Smoking-related disparities for people with SPD will persist unless a shift in tobacco control substantially improves cessation and prevents initiation in this subpopulation. Smoking disparities by SPD may widen in relative but narrow in absolute terms, so both perspectives should be evaluated. • First tobacco simulation model of population with serious psychological distress. • 609,000 smoking-attributable deaths to occur in this population through 2100. • Up to 386,000 of these premature deaths could be averted in the population. • Trends in disparities depend on the type of metric used: absolute or relative. • Improving cessation for this group leads to large, short-term public health benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We have developed a present day ecosystem model for the Taputeranga MR. [•] We have historically reconstructed the ecosystem state prior to commercial fishing. [•] We have run future simulations to predict ecosystem response to marine protection. [•] The keystone role of lobster has changed since historical times due to fishing. [•] The Taputeranga MR is predicted to return the ecosystem to a more historical state. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]