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Abstract This paper sheds light on the increase in generation of non-metallic mineral wastes and the decrease in demand for construction by investigating the material flow resulting from and the economic influence of changes in the supply and demand for wastes, focusing on the period from the near future to 2030. We predict the amount of final disposal of non-metallic mineral wastes and its influence on industries in the future under the assumption of two scenarios—zero emission and business-as-usual—using linear programming and input–output techniques developed for non-metallic mineral materials. We conclude that zero emission can be achieved at the cost of a 3.76% decrease in the value added of industries related to non-metallic mineral wastes. Otherwise, the final disposal might increase 13 times the size of 2005’s disposal. Considering the empirical results, we discuss an effective policy for non-metallic mineral waste management from the viewpoints of material flow and economic influence.