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BackgroundDespite advances in pre- and post-resuscitation care, percentage of survival to hospital discharge after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) was extremely low. Development of an accurate system to predict the daily incidence of OHCA might provide a significant public health benefit. Here, we developed and validated a machine learning (ML) predictive model for daily OHCA incidence using high-resolution meteorological, chronological, and geographical data.MethodsWe analyzed a dataset from the United States that combined an OHCA nationwide registry, high-resolution meteorological data, chronological data, and geographical data. We developed a model to predict daily OHCA incidence with a training dataset for 2013–2017 using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm. A dataset for 2018–2019 was used to test the predictive model. The main outcome was the predictive accuracy for the number of daily OHCA events, based on root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In general, a model with MAPE less than 10% is considered highly accurate.ResultsAmong the 446,830 OHCAs of non-traumatic cause where resuscitative efforts were initiated by a 911 responder, 264,916 in the training dataset and 181,914 in the testing dataset were included in the analysis. The ML model with combined meteorological, chronological, and geographical data had high predictive accuracy in relation to nationwide incidence rate per 100,000 at the nationwide level) in the training dataset (RMSE, 0.016; MAE, 0.013; and MAPE, 7.61%) and in the testing dataset (RMSE, 0.018; MAE, 0.014; and MAPE, 6.52%).ConclusionsA ML predictive model using comprehensive daily meteorological, chronological, and geographical data allows for highly precise estimates of OHCA incidence in the United States.Clinical PerspectiveWhat is new?A machine learning predictive model developed with a high-resolution meteorological dataset and chronological and geographical variables predicted the daily incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in the U.S. population with high precision. The predictive accuracy at the state level was greater in medium and high-temperature areas than in the low-temperature area.What are the clinical implications?This predictive model revealed complex associations between meteorological, chronological, and geographic variables in relation to predicting daily incidence of OHCA. It might be useful for public health strategies in temperate regions, for example, by providing a warning system for citizens and emergency medical services agencies on high-risk days.

Background: The “1-3-6-12-day rule” for starting direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation after acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack recommends timings that may be later than used in clinical practice. We investigated more practical optimal timing of DOAC initiation according to stroke severity. Methods: The combined data of prospective registries in Japan, Stroke Acute Management with Urgent Risk-factor Assessment and Improvement-nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (September 2011 to March 2014) and RELAXED (February 2014 to April 2016) were used. Patients were divided into transient ischemic attack and 3 stroke subgroups by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score: mild (0–7), moderate (8–15), and severe (≥16). The early treatment group was defined as patients starting DOACs earlier than the median initiation day in each subgroup. Outcomes included a composite of recurrent stroke or systemic embolism, ischemic stroke, and severe bleeding within 90 days. Six European prospective registries were used for validation. Results: In the 1797 derivation cohort patients, DOACs were started at median 2 days after transient ischemic attack and 3, 4, and 5 days after mild, moderate, and severe strokes, respectively. Stroke or systemic embolism was less common in Early Group (n=785)—initiating DOACS within 1, 2, 3, and 4 days, respectively—than Late Group (n=1012) (1.9% versus 3.9%; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.27–0.89]), as was ischemic stroke (1.7% versus 3.2%, 0.54 [0.27–0.999]). Major bleeding was similarly common in the 2 groups (0.8% versus 1.0%). On validation, both ischemic stroke (2.4% versus 2.2%) and intracranial hemorrhage (0.2% versus 0.6%) were similarly common in Early (n=547) and Late (n=1483) Groups defined using derivation data. Conclusions: In Japanese and European populations, early DOAC initiation within 1, 2, 3, or 4 days according to stroke severity seemed to be feasible to decrease the risk of recurrent stroke or systemic embolism and no increase in major bleeding. These findings support ongoing randomized trials to better establish the optimal timing of DOAC initiation.

Indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase 1 (IDO), an enzyme that metabolizes tryptophan (Trp) to kynurenine (Kyn), is an important microenvironmental factor suppressing antitumor immunity. Here, we investigated the clinical impact of aberrant Trp metabolism in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) treated with lenalidomide (Len) and evaluated its effects on T cell immunity ex vivo. Kyn and Trp concentrations were quantified in sera from 72 patients with relapsed or refractory MM prior to the initiation of therapy with Len plus dexamethasone (Ld). Associations of the Kyn/Trp ratio with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed. The expressions of IDO in tumor and stromal cells were evaluated during co-culture, and the effects of culture medium containing low Trp and high Kyn concentrations on T cells in the presence of Len were investigated. Patients with high serum Kyn/Trp ratios (≥46.0, n = 22) had significantly shorter PFS and OS than those with low ratios (4.9 vs. 12.6 months, and 15.5 vs. 45.7 months, respectively). MM cells promoted IDO expression in stromal cells during co-culture in both a direct contact and an indirect manner. Incubation in medium with a high Kyn/Trp ratio significantly inhibited T cell cytokine production and upregulated the expression of inhibitory immune receptors. These effects were sustained even in the presence of Len. In conclusion, a high serum Kyn/Trp ratio is associated with poor prognosis in patients with MM. We propose that aberrant Trp metabolism reduces anti-tumor immunity and the efficacy of Len therapy.

Background The high mortality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) with cardiogenic shock (i.e., Killip class IV AMI) remains a challenge in emergency cardiovascular care. This study aimed to examine institutional factors, including the number of JCS board-certified members, that are independently associated with the prognosis of Killip class IV AMI patients.Methods and Results:In the Japanese registry of all cardiac and vascular diseases-diagnosis procedure combination (JROAD-DPC) database (years 2012-2016), the 30-day mortality of Killip class IV AMI patients (n=21,823) was 42.3%. Multivariate analysis identified age, female sex, admission by ambulance, deep coma, and cardiac arrest as patient factors that were independently associated with higher 30-day mortality, and the numbers of JCS board-certified members and of intra-aortic balloon pumping (IABP) cases per year as institutional factors that were independently associated with lower mortality in Killip class IV patients, although IABP was associated with higher mortality in Killip classes I-III patients. Among hospitals with the highest quartile (≥9 JCS board-certified members), the 30-day mortality of Killip class IV patients was 37.4%. Conclusions A higher numbers of JCS board-certified members was associated with better survival of Killip class IV AMI patients. This finding may provide a clue to optimizing local emergency medical services for better management of AMI patients in Japan.

ObjectivesTo evaluate a predictive model for robust estimation of daily out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) incidence using a suite of machine learning (ML) approaches and high-resolution meteorological and chronological data.MethodsIn this population-based study, we combined an OHCA nationwide registry and high-resolution meteorological and chronological datasets from Japan. We developed a model to predict daily OHCA incidence with a training dataset for 2005–2013 using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm. A dataset for 2014–2015 was used to test the predictive model. The main outcome was the accuracy of the predictive model for the number of daily OHCA events, based on mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In general, a model with MAPE less than 10% is considered highly accurate.ResultsAmong the 1 299 784 OHCA cases, 661 052 OHCA cases of cardiac origin (525 374 cases in the training dataset on which fourfold cross-validation was performed and 135 678 cases in the testing dataset) were included in the analysis. Compared with the ML models using meteorological or chronological variables alone, the ML model with combined meteorological and chronological variables had the highest predictive accuracy in the training (MAE 1.314 and MAPE 7.007%) and testing datasets (MAE 1.547 and MAPE 7.788%). Sunday, Monday, holiday, winter, low ambient temperature and large interday or intraday temperature difference were more strongly associated with OHCA incidence than other the meteorological and chronological variables.ConclusionsA ML predictive model using comprehensive daily meteorological and chronological data allows for highly precise estimates of OHCA incidence.

Malignant lymphoma developing during anti-PD-1 antibody treatment is extremely rare. A 74-year-old female was admitted with left hypochondrial pain. She was diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma of the right upper lobe of the lung, and had undergone surgery and postoperative chemotherapy three years prior. Needle biopsy of a mediastinal lymph node revealed recurrent lung cancer (LC). Pembrolizumab (PEM) monotherapy was started as salvage treatment. Although her lymphadenopathy improved, thrombocytopenia and splenomegaly developed during treatment with nine doses of PEM. Laboratory findings included anemia, increased lactate dehydrogenase, and soluble interleukin-2 receptor levels of 6379 U/mL. Flow cytometry of peripheral blood and bone marrow showed CD20+, κ ≪ λ cell populations. IGH-BCL2 fusion was detected by fluorescence in situ hybridization in bone marrow. Positron emission tomography showed abnormal uptake in tonsils, both cervical lymph nodes, mediastinum (different location from the recurrent LC), spleen, and abdominal cavity. Follicular lymphoma (FL) grade 1/2 was histologically diagnosed by tonsillar biopsy. She achieved a complete metabolic response (CMR) after rituximab monotherapy on PEM discontinuation. Relapsed FL was diagnosed by submandibular gland biopsy four months after restarting PEM and she achieved a second CMR after rituximab-containing chemotherapy. We describe the first case of newly diagnosed FL during PEM treatment.

Background Misdiagnoses of headache disorders are a serious issue. Therefore, we developed an artificial intelligence-based headache diagnosis model using a large questionnaire database in a specialized headache hospital. Methods Phase 1: We developed an artificial intelligence model based on a retrospective investigation of 4000 patients (2800 training and 1200 test dataset) diagnosed by headache specialists. Phase 2: The model’s efficacy and accuracy were validated. Five non-headache specialists first diagnosed headaches in 50 patients, who were then re-diagnosed using AI. The ground truth was the diagnosis by headache specialists. The diagnostic performance and concordance rates between headache specialists and non-specialists with or without artificial intelligence were evaluated. Results Phase 1: The model’s macro-average accuracy, sensitivity (recall), specificity, precision, and F values were 76.25%, 56.26%, 92.16%, 61.24%, and 56.88%, respectively, for the test dataset. Phase 2: Five non-specialists diagnosed headaches without artificial intelligence with 46% overall accuracy and 0.212 kappa for the ground truth. The statistically improved values with artificial intelligence were 83.20% and 0.678, respectively. Other diagnostic indexes were also improved. Conclusions Artificial intelligence improved the non-specialist diagnostic performance. Given the model’s limitations based on the data from a single center and the low diagnostic accuracy for secondary headaches, further data collection and validation are needed.

Calcified nodule (CN) is an eruptive calcified mass causing acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Since coronary calcification is associated with an elevated cardiac event's risk, ACS attributable to CN may exhibit worse clinical outcome following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).We retrospectively analyzed 657 ACS patients receiving PCI with newer-generation drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation under intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) guidance. CN was defined as (1) protruding calcification with its irregular surface and (2) the presence of calcification at adjacent proximal and distal segments. The primary endpoint was a composite of major adverse cardiac event [MACE = cardiac death + ACS recurrence + target lesion revascularization (TLR)].CN was identified in 5.3% (=35/657) of the study subjects. CN patients were more likely to have coronary risk factors including hypertension (p = 0.005), chronic kidney disease (p 0.001), maintenance hemodialysis (p 0.001) and a history of PCI (p 0.001). During the observational period (median = 1304 days), CN was associated with an increased risk of MACE (HR = 7.68, 95%CI = 4.61-12.80, p 0.001), ACS recurrence (HR = 12.32, 95%CI = 6.05-25.11, p 0.001) and TLR (HR = 10.48, 95%CI = 5.80-18.94, p 0.001). These cardiac risks related to CN were consistently observed by Cox proportional hazards model (MACE: p 0.001, ACS recurrence: p 0.001, TLR: p 0.001) and a propensity score-matched cohort analysis (MACE: p = 0.002, ACS recurrence: p = 0.01, TLR: p = 0.005). Of note, over 80% of TLR at the CN lesion was driven by its re-appearance within the implanted DES.ACS patients attributable to CN have an increased risk of ACS recurrence and TLR, mainly driven by the continuous growth and protrusion of the calcified mass.

Aims Percutaneous veno‐arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA‐ECMO) is utilized for patients with cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest. However, the procedure protocol for weaning from VA‐ECMO has not been well established. The present study aimed to determine the usefulness of echocardiographic and pulmonary artery catheter parameters for predicting successful weaning from VA‐ECMO in patients with refractory cardiogenic shock. Methods and results We retrospectively studied 50 patients who were hospitalized and supported by VA‐ECMO for >48 h between January 2013 and March 2017. Patients successfully weaned from VA‐ECMO without reintroduction of VA‐ECMO or left ventricular assist device implantation were defined as 30 day survivors. Echocardiographic and pulmonary artery catheter parameters were evaluated when ECMO flow was limited to a maximum of 1.5–2.0 L/min. Twenty‐four patients were successfully weaned from VA‐ECMO, whereas 26 were not. Fractional shortening, corrected left ventricular ejection time (LVETc, defined as LVET divided by the square root of heart rate), left ventricular outflow tract velocity time integral, and LVETc divided by pulmonary artery wedge pressure (PAWP) were significantly larger in the 30 day survivor groups. Multivariable analysis revealed LVETc∕PAWP as a significant independent predictor of successful weaning (LVETc∕PAWP, odds ratio 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.71–0.94, P = 0.005). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed 15.9 as the optimal LVETc∕PAWP for predicting successful weaning (area under the curve 0.82). Conclusions The present findings indicate that LVETc∕PAWP is a potential predictor of successful weaning from VA‐ECMO.

We describe a dominant Japanese patient with progressive conductive hearing loss who was diagnosed with NOG-related symphalangism spectrum disorder (NOG-SSD), a spectrum of congenital stapes fixation syndromes caused by NOG mutations. Based on the clinical features, including proximal symphalangism, conductive hearing loss, hyper­opia, and short, broad middle, and distal phalanges of the thumbs, his family was diagnosed with stapes ankylosis with broad thumbs and toes syndrome (SABTT). Genetic analysis revealed a heterozygous substitution in the NOG gene, c.645C>A, p.C215* in affected family individuals. He had normal hearing on auditory brainstem response (ABR) testing at ages 9 months and 1 and 2 years. He was followed up to evaluate the hearing level because of his family history of hearing loss caused by SABTT. Follow-up pure tone average testing revealed the development of progressive conductive hearing loss. Stapes surgery was performed, and his post-operative hearing threshold improved to normal in both ears. According to hearing test results, the stapes ankylosis in our SABTT patient seemed to be incomplete at birth and progressive in early childhood. The ABR results in our patient indicated the possibility that newborn hearing screening may not detect conductive hearing loss in patients with NOG-SSD. Hence, children with a family history and/or known congenital joint abnormality should undergo periodic hearing tests due to possible progressive hearing loss. Because of high success rates of stapes surgeries in cases of SABTT, early surgical interventions would help minimise the negative effect of hearing loss during school age. Identification of the nature of conductive hearing loss due to progressive stapes ankylosis allows for better genetic counselling and proper intervention in NOG-SSD patients.

Type A acute aortic dissection (AAD) complicated by coronary malperfusion is a life-threatening disease. In the present study, we compared the clinical characteristics and prognostic impact of treatment strategies including surgical treatment and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in type A AAD patients with RCA and LCA involvement.This multicenter registry included 220 patients with type A AAD and either RCA or LCA involvement. Treatment strategies were left to treating physicians. The primary endpoint was in-hospital death.Of 220 patients, 115 (52.3%) and 105 (47.7%) had RCA and LCA involvement. Patients with LCA involvement were more1 likely to present with Killip class IV on admission than those with RCA involvement. Coronary angiography was performed in 52 of 220 (23.6%) patients, among whom 39 (75.0%) underwent subsequent PCI. During the hospitalization, 93 (42.3%) patients died. Patients with LCA involvement had an increased risk of in-hospital mortality compared to those with RCA involvement (54.3% vs. 31.3%, p 0.001). In patients with RCA involvement, multivariable analysis identified Killip class IV and no surgical treatment as predictors of in-hospital death, while PCI and surgical treatment were indicated as factors associated with lower in-hospital mortality in patients with LCA involvement.The rates of RCA and LCA involvement were similar in type A AAD. Immediate PCI as a bridge to subsequent surgical treatment might improve survival in patients with type A AAD complicated by coronary malperfusion, especially in those with LCA involvement.

To investigate whether intentional cooling, achieved temperature and hypothermia duration were associated with in-hospital death in patients treated with extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) for refractory cardiac arrest.This is a retrospective analysis of the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization Registry. Patients 18-79 years of age who received ECPR between 2010 and 2019 were included. We compared outcomes for intentional cooling versus no intentional cooling. Then, among those who completed intentional cooling, we compared the outcomes between i) achieved temperature ≤ 34 °C, 34-36 °C, and 36 °C, and ii) duration ≤ 36 °C for 12 h, 12-48 h, and ≥ 48 h. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality within 90 days. Cox proportional hazard models were generated with adjustment for covariates.Among 4,214 ECPR patients, 1,511 patients were included in the final analysis. After multivariable adjustment, there was no significant difference in in-hospital mortality between patients with intentional cooling and no intentional cooling (hazard ratio [HR], 1.06 [95% CI 0.93-1.21]; p = 0.394). In the 609 patients who completed intentional cooling, temperature at 34-36 °C had a significantly lower adjusted HR for in-hospital mortality compared with 36 °C (HR, 0.73 [0.55-0.96]; p = 0.025). Moreover, temperature ≤ 36 °C for 12-48 h had a significantly lower adjusted HR for in-hospital mortality compared with ≤ 36 °C for 12 h (HR, 0.69 [0.53-0.90]; p = 0.005).Intentional cooling was not associated with lower in-hospital mortality in ECPR patients. However, among patients with intentional cooling, achieving temperature of 34-36 °C for 12-48 h was associated with lower in-hospital mortality.

BACKGROUND Approximately one-third of patients with advanced heart failure (HF) do not respond to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). We investigated whether the left ventricular (LV) conduction pattern on magnetocardiography (MCG) can predict CRT responders.Methods and Results:This retrospective study enrolled 56 patients with advanced HF (mean [±SD] LV ejection fraction [LVEF] 23±8%; QRS duration 145±19 ms) and MCG recorded before CRT. MCG-QRS current arrow maps were classified as multidirectional (MDC; n=28) or unidirectional (UDC; n=28) conduction based on a change of either ≥35° or

A 75-year-old female patient on hemodialysis presented with non–ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. After successful primary percutaneous coronary intervention, in-stent restenosis (ISR) occurred 3 consecutive times. Intravascular imaging assessment during the repeated percutaneous coronary intervention indicated that the ISR was not associated with neointimal hyperplasia but was mainly attributed to a calcified nodule, which protruded into the lumen. We applied excimer laser catheter ablation to avoid another ISR. (Level of Difficulty: Intermediate.), Graphical abstract

Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) has been widely used for critically ill patients all over the world; however, comprehensive survey regarding the relationship between VA-ECMO duration and prognosis is limited. We conducted a survey of VA-ECMO patients in the Japanese Registry of All Cardiac and Vascular Diseases-Diagnosis Procedure Combination (JROAD-DPC), which was a health insurance claim database study among cardiovascular centers associated with the Japan Circulation Society, between April 2012 and March 2016. Out of 13,542 VA-ECMO patients, we analyzed 5766 cardiovascular patients treated with VA-ECMO. 68% patients used VA-ECMO only for 1 day and 93% had VA-ECMO terminated within 1 week. In multivariate analysis, the hazard ratio of 1-day support was significantly high at 1.72 (95% confidence intervals; 95% CI 1.53-1.95) (p 0.001), while that of 2-day [0.60 (95% CI 0.49-0.73)], 3-day [0.75 (95% CI 0.60-0.94)], 4-day [0.43 (95% CI 0.31-0.60)] and 5-day support [0.62 (95% CI 0.44-0.86)] was significantly low. Comprehensive database analysis of JROAD-DPC revealed that cardiovascular patients who were supported with VA-ECMO for 2-5 days showed lower mortality. The optimal VA-ECMO support window should be investigated in further studies.

Positive mathematical programming (PMP) has a substantial number of applications in the field of agricultural and resource economics. Their focus has often been placed on the simulation analysis of farmers’ response to drastic changes in exogenous factors especially brought about by policy changes. In the present study, an exploration was made to widen the application area of the PMP approach, targeting farmers’ expectation toward the farm-gate price of rice in comparison with that of wheat under the policy to suppress overproduction. When domestic consumption is mature and the regulation of production by the government is present, farmers’ expectation toward the farm-gate price of a crop can be assumed to fall in response to an increased allocation of land area to produce the crop. The degree of the fall is defined as the expectation fall index (EFI) in the present study. A proposition was made as to the procedure for quantifying EFI using the PMP approach with statistical datasets of multiple years retrieved from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. The present study is considered to have provided a basis to discuss the formation processes of farmers’ attitudes toward policy measures.

Background: Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) improves survival of patients with prolonged cardiac arrest (CA) that is refractory to standard CPR and ACLS. It has been proposed that ECPR accentuates inflammation after CA, potentially limiting its effectiveness. The benefits of leukocyte filters or leukocyte-modulating devices in conjunction with ECPR have not been studied. Hypothesis: When paired with ECPR, inflammation-modulating devices targeting leukocytes may improve recovery of cardiac function after prolonged cardiac arrest. Methods: In a randomized study, 24 swine (40±5kg) underwent 8min of untreated ventricular fibrillation CA followed by CPR with mechanical chest compressions and impedance threshold device for 30 min (total arrest time = 38min), immediately followed by 8h of ECPR with heparin anticoagulation and temperature maintained at 33°C. Group 1 (n=8) had standard ECPR system (control), Group 2 (n=8) had a leukocyte filter device (LF) added to the ECPR circuit, an and Group 3 (n=8) had a leukocyte modulation device (LMOD) added to the ECPR circuit. Recovery of cardiac function was measured using a cardiac resuscitablity score (CRS) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) via transthoracic echocardiography. Data was collected at baseline (prior CA) and after 8h of ECPR. Data analysis: single-factor ANOVA test (p Results: There were no statically significant differences between the groups in CRS (Control = 3.3 ± 2.4, LF = 4.0 ± 2.8, LMOD = 2.1 ± 2.6; p=0.37) or LVEF (Control = 59% ± 27%, LF = 49% ± 29% LMOD = 34% ± 38%: p=0.34) at 8 hours after ECPR initiation (Table 1). Discussion: In this swine model of prolonged cardiac arrest treated with ECPR, addition of a leukocyte filter or leukocyte modulation device to the ECPR circuit did not improve recovery of cardiac function during the first 8 hours after initiating ECPR.

Type A acute aortic dissection (AAD), especially that with coronary artery involvement and malperfusion, is a life-threatening disease. In the present study we aimed to investigate the association of surgical treatment and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with in-hospital mortality in patients with type A AAD and coronary artery involvement.This retrospective multicenter registry in Japan included 225 patients with type A AAD and coronary artery involvement. Treatment strategies including surgical treatment and/or PCI were left to treating physicians. The primary end point was in-hospital death.Of 225 patients, dissection extended into the right and left coronary arteries and both in 115 (51.1%), 105 (46.7%), and 5 (2.2%), respectively. Overall, 94 (41.8%) patients died during the hospitalization. Coronary angiography was performed in 53 (23.6%) patients, among whom 39 (73.6%) underwent PCI. Surgical repair was performed in 188 (83.6%) patients. In patients who received neither procedure, 33 of 35 (94.3%) died during the hospitalization. PCI was performed as a bridge to surgical repair in 37 of 39 (94.9%) patients, and in-hospital mortality of patients who underwent PCI and surgical procedures was 24.3%. Multivariable analysis identified PCI and surgical procedures as factors associated with lower in-hospital mortality rates.Coronary artery involvement in type A AAD was associated with high in-hospital mortality of more than 40% in the current era. An early reperfusion strategy with PCI as a bridge to surgical repair might improve clinical outcomes in this fatal condition.

This study aims to develop and validate prediction models for the number of all heatstroke cases, and heatstrokes of hospital admission and death cases per city per 12 h, using multiple weather information and a population-based database for heatstroke patients in 16 Japanese cities (corresponding to around a 10,000,000 population size). In the testing dataset, mean absolute percentage error of generalized linear models with wet bulb globe temperature as the only predictor and the optimal models, respectively, are 43.0% and 14.8% for spikes in the number of all heatstroke cases, and 37.7% and 10.6% for spikes in the number of heatstrokes of hospital admission and death cases. The optimal models predict the spikes in the number of heatstrokes well by machine learning methods including non-linear multivariable predictors and/or under-sampling and bagging. Here, we develop prediction models whose predictive performances are high enough to be implemented in public health settings., In the context of climate change, heatstroke is expected to become an increasingly relevant public health concern. Here, the authors develop and validate prediction models for the number of all heatstroke cases in different cities in Japan.