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PR, IFPRI4; ReSAKSS; DCA; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, AFR, The need for industrial development in Africa has become more pressing than ever. Industrial development is key for structural transformation, which many African countries are struggling with, to sustain and deepen the observed solid economic growth of the last two decades (Newfarmer, Page, and Tarp 2019; Newman et al. 2016). It has also become a key strategy to tap into growing opportunities such as the high rates of urbanization, the growing labor force and its level of qualification, a high proportion of young people in the population structure, a growing domestic market, an increasing relative size of the middle class, the decrease in the severity of internal political confrontations and attenuation of intercountry armed conflicts, and the development of digital technologies (Ledeneva et al. 2020). Despite the wider narrative of “premature deindustrialization” associated with COVID-19, recent data show that deindustrialization is not the common experience for the majority of African countries and industrial sectors (Lopes and te Velde 2021). This creates another opportunity to renew efforts and refocus policy to promote industrialization.

PR, IFPRI4; ReSAKSS, AFR, The 2022 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) aims to generate evidence to guide the ongoing transformation of African food systems through well-concerted and targeted policy interventions in the agrifood processing sector. In line with this objective, the report brings together several studies that explore available and emerging evidence and knowledge in a wide range of policy areas related to the processing segment of agrifood value chains. Overall, the studies (1) confirm the emerging opportunities for agrifood industrialization in Africa, driven by increased urbanization and middle-income consumers who look for diversified diets and convenient foods; and (2) shed light on key areas where policymakers and partners should design policies and make investments that strengthen the sector and increase its capacity to provide healthy diets for all.

PR, IFPRI4; ReSAKSS, AFR, Overall, the economic transformation process requires both diversification and sophistication (specialization) of a country’s production system. Indeed, countries that undergo successful diversification and sophistication are more likely to achieve transformative development goals. In Africa, food systems are transforming, with value chains becoming more complex and purchased, processed, perishable, and high-value food products accounting for larger shares of consumers’ diets (Tschirley et al. 2015a; Tschirley et al. 2015b). The midstream segments of agricultural value chains are increasing in importance in response to demand from urban markets for both greater volumes of food and greater value added (Reardon et al. 2015). Africa’s agrifood processing sector is central to these changes, and growth and development of the sector will help to determine whether the burgeoning demand from urban food markets will be met through local production or through increases in Africa’s already high levels of imports from outside the continent. The processing sector is the conduit through which smallholder farmers reach consumers, and as such it plays an important role in increasing income opportunities for farmers as well as creating employment opportunities along food value chains.

PR, IFPRI2; RESAKSS, AFR, The 2022 Annual Trends and Outlook Report generates evidence to guide the ongoing transformation of African food systems through well-concerted and targeted policy interventions in the agrifood processing sector. The report explores available and emerging evidence and knowledge in a wide range of policy areas related to the processing segment of agrifood value chains. It confirms the emerging opportunities for agrifood industrialization in Africa driven by increased urbanization and middle-income consumers, and sheds light on key areas for policymakers and partners to design policies and make investments that strengthen the sector and increase its capacity to provide healthy diets for all.

PR, IFPRI4; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; Feed the Future Initiative; ReSAKSS, AFR, In early 2020, African governments adopted a wide range of containment and confinement measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 in the continent. The measures included border closures, suspension of international flights, closures of markets and schools, state-of-emergency declarations, total and partial lockdowns, restrictions on internal movement, imposition of curfews, and closures of nonessential businesses (UN-Habitat 2020; IMF 2020). To mitigate the adverse economic effects of these health measures, governments implemented various emergency economic supports and regulations. Several institutions have tracked the type and size of policy responses by African countries to ease the adverse impacts on agricultural development, food security, finance, and trade (Laborde and Parent 2020; Bisson and Hambleton 2020). These studies have explored the incidence and impacts of emergency responses with the objective of estimating the costs of COVID-19. Similarly, AKADEMIYA2063 has established analytical workstreams to monitor the impacts of COVID-19 on food production, markets, trade, and households (Badiane and Collins 2020). However, these studies have evaluated the overall impact of COVID-19 without disentangling the impacts of the health measures from those of the economic measures.

PR, IFPRI4; CRP2; ReSAKSS; AGRODEP, MTID; AFR; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), This first chapter provides an overview of recent issues related to agricultural trade in Africa. Hence, the next section explains how the unprecedented shock of COVID-19 has had a major impact on trade and food security in Africa. The following section looks at the initial steps in the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in 2021. The final section describes some issues concerning data and methodology used for this report

PR, IFPRI4; CRP2; ReSAKSS; AGRODEP, AFR; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), The Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) was launched in 2018 as an annual report monitoring the continent’s progress in agricultural trade development. Chapter 3, as in the previous reports, reviews the state of intra-African agricultural trade, and provides an in-depth analysis of several agricultural products that are strategic for food security. Working from the hypothesis that total agricultural trade within Africa depends on the performance of trade in specific products, this chapter looks at how trade is affected by commodity-specific trade policies, including those related to food self-sufficiency, regulatory standards, and quality requirements.

PR, IFPRI4; ReSAKSS, AFR; DSGD, The objectives of the 2020 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) are twofold. First, the report tracks past and current African agricultural policies, and evaluates their limitations and achievements. Second, it identifies further policy interventions to improve agricultural outcomes and stimulate broader transformation throughout the agrifood system so as to contribute to healthy and nutritious diets, environmental sustainability, and job creation. Collectively, the chapters converge on a number of key lessons: consolidate recent successes without repeating past mistakes, ensure that policies are both holistic and nuanced, and strengthen the broader policy and institutional setting in which sector-specific policy decisions are embedded. This chapter summarizes these findings and concludes that even though COVID-19 has been a significant global shock, it does not need to derail the region’s agrifood system transformation aspirations.

PR, IFPRI4; ReSAKSS, AFR, This chapter aims to assess the performance of and policy responses to Africa’s rapidly emerging traditional staples value chains, which are dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the processing and trading segments. It addresses questions related to policy process issues such as (1) whether public intervention policies in Africa are in line with the needs and performance of the rapidly transforming value chains, and (2) how African governments should align policy interventions in emerging mid-chain segments to foster effective value chain development. The chapter uses the example of one of the most dynamic and fastest-growing staples value chains in Africa, the millet value chain in Senegal, thus contributing specifically to Senegal’s agro-industrial policy discourse. We begin with a review of value chain development evolution as a concept and in practice in Africa as a whole and outline a comprehensive list of critical policy concerns and priorities that must be addressed to respond to the needs of midstream value chain segments.

PR, IFPRI1; ReSAKSS; UNFSS, AFR; DSGD, Sustained growth and improved governance in Africa’s agriculture sector are critical to meeting the continent’s development goals, including creating decent jobs for youth, nourishing growing cities with healthy foods, promoting resilience, and catalyzing domestic revenue mobilization. The 2020 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) from the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) focuses on the policies required to transform African agrifood systems to meet their potential. Chapters provide (1) an in-depth review of the evolution of agricultural sector policies over the last five decades; (2) a systematic analysis of traditional input constraints on agricultural productivity; (3) discussion of policies needed to bolster competitiveness along value chains; and of (4) factors that shape the broader enabling environment needed for agrifood system transformation. The report serves as the official M&E report for the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), tracking progress on over 30 CAADP indicators.

PR, IFPRI4; ReSAKSS, AFR; DSGD, African agriculture is at an important crossroads. On the one hand, the role of agriculture in the process of economic transformation is widely recognized (Diao, Hazell, and Thurlow 2010; Diao and McMillan 2018), and there have been important achievements in African agricultural performance and productivity growth in recent years. For instance, between 2005 and 2012, agricultural value-added growth and total factor productivity growth were robust and positive for many countries in the region (IFAD 2016). Although more progress is still needed, long-standing structural reforms have contributed to a more conducive environment for private sector participation in African agriculture, particularly in input value chains (AGRA 2019). At the same time, governments are experimenting with a variety of policy interventions to accelerate agricultural transformation, including the creation of agro-industrial parks, agro-corridors, and special economic zones in more than two dozen countries across the continent (Gálvez Nogales and Webber 2017). These initiatives aim to create economies of scale by coordinating investments in transport, communications, power, and storage to foster linkages between farmers and agribusiness enterprises. There is enormous potential for these and other initiatives to enable agriculture to contribute to larger agrifood system transformation; in fact, evidence suggests that African agribusiness, inclusive of all aspects of the agrifood system except on-farm production, could be a US$1 trillion market by 2030 (Byerlee et al. 2013).

PR, IFPRI1; ReSAKSS, AFR; DSGD, Sustained growth and improved governance in Africa’s agriculture sector are critical to meeting the continent’s development goals, including creating decent jobs for youth, nourishing growing cities with healthy foods, promoting resilience, and catalyzing domestic revenue mobilization. The 2020 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) from the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) focuses on the policies required to transform African agrifood systems to meet their potential. Chapters provide (1) an in-depth review of the evolution of agricultural sector policies over the last five decades; (2) a systematic analysis of traditional input constraints on agricultural productivity; (3) discussion of policies needed to bolster competitiveness along value chains; and of (4) factors that shape the broader enabling environment needed for agrifood system transformation. The report serves as the official M&E report for the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), tracking progress on over 30 CAADP indicators.

PR, IFPRI1; ReSAKSS, AFR; DSGD, Au cours des deux dernières décennies, l’Afrique a enregistré le plus fort taux de croissance dans l’agriculture. Cette performance doit être soutenue et accélérée si le secteur agricole veut accomplir sa mission et contribuer à la réalisation des objectifs de développement du continent, notamment la création d’emplois décents pour les jeunes, la fourniture d’une alimentation saine dans les villes en pleine croissance et la mobilisation des recettes intérieures pour les biens et services publics. Le Rapport annuel 2020 sur les tendances et les perspectives (2020 Annual Trends and Outlook Report – ATOR) porte donc sur un ensemble de politiques complémentaires de grande ampleur visant à transformer les systèmes agroalimentaires africains pour réaliser leur potentiel. Le rapport commence par : (1) un examen approfondi de l’évolution des politiques agricoles au cours des cinquante dernières années, suivi d’une analyse systématique (2) des contraintes de productivité agricole liées à l’utilisation des intrants traditionnels, (3) des politiques nécessaires pour renforcer la compétitivité tout au long des chaînes de valeur, et (4) des facteurs qui façonnent un environnement global propice à la transformation des systèmes agroalimentaires.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; IFPRIOA, AFR; MTID, Measuring the incidence and intensity of food insecurity has long been a challenge due to its conceptual and practical complexity. Several scholars have proposed objective and subjective measurements to monitor or evaluate food in(security) programs. While the objective measurements such as food caloric intake and food expenditure are data demanding and costly, the subjective measurements such as experience-based food insecurity scales that use direct responses to food shortage questions can be prone to biases and misreporting due to respondents’ unobservable economic and social desirability concerns. This paper reports the biases when food shortage is asked through direct questions and indirect interviews using a list experiment approach—an approach widely used to elicit the true responses of respondents for a sensitive question. The list experiment was conducted on four selected self-reported food insecurity survey questions which represent both the availability (incidence) and access (intensity) dimensions of food security. The sample households were drawn from two districts in Northern Ethiopia where households are chronically food insecure and several projects have been implemented. The results indicate the existence of significant bias in self-reported food insecurity responses when implemented through direct interviews. The results also show that the biases, particularly the ones related to incidence questions, have led to erroneous conclusion about the impact of a food security program—the Ethiopian Household Asset Building (HAB) program. Based on the findings, the paper highlights possible options and precautionary actions for measuring food insecurity using self-reported questions.

Non-PR, IFPRI5; DCA, AFR, This paper aims at documenting evidences on the patterns and constraints affecting the sequential and simultaneous transition of farm power use from manual to animal to engine. It also aims at exploring access to farm equipment through ownership and rental service. Based on a household data collected under the huge and ambitious project called ‘Senegal Agricultural Policy Project’, the result generally confirms the very low use of farm machinery powered by engines despite years of efforts to support agricultural mechanization programs. However, the use of improved farm equipment powered by animals has shown a sharp increase overtime. The study further demonstrated the variation of constraints in farm mechanization transitions defined by sources of power. While demand side constraints such as farm size and off-farm income are more important for machineries than animal plows, supply-side constraints such as rental overhead costs and membership to a producer’s organization are very critical for transition to engine power through facilitating rental service which is the dominant source of access to heavy machineries. Based on these findings, we discussed the strategic interventions that are needed to enhance and sustain agricultural mechanization uptakes in Senegal.

Non-PR, IFPRI5; DCA, AFR, Using household level data collected from cereal based farming systems of Senegal, we examined the prospects and challenges of the Senegalese equipment supply subsidy program. Because of the design of the program—being procured and supplied by the government—we argue that the effect of this program on adoption of improved farm equipment depends on the supply and price benefits as well as the relative importance of ownership to access farm equipment. To empirically support this argument, we assessed the benefits of the subsidy in creating markets and reducing prices and its effectiveness in motivating farmers to use modern farm equipment. Our analyses indeed revealed that though the number of farmers benefited from the subsidy is small, the program has significantly improved the adoption of farm equipment drawn by animals mainly due to its market creation benefit. This has been further confirmed by the qualitative response of farmers who appreciated the quality of the equipment being supplied by the program. However, the effect of subsidy on machinery use is insignificant as it doesn’t provide support to those farmers who primary depend on rental services. The price advantage created by the subsidy program is not as such significant either. Farm equipment purchased from the program and the open market appear to have closely similar prices.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, AFR; MTID

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; Capacity Strengthening; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply, AFR, 9 pages

PR, IFPRI2; ReSAKSS; CRP2; AGRODEP; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, MTID; AFR; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), African countries have diversified both their exports and trade partners over the last decade, African agricultural trade still suffers from structural problems as well as exogenous shocks. Against this backdrop, the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) analyzes continental and regional trends in African agricultural trade flows and policies. The report finds that many African countries continue to enjoy the most success in global markets with cash crops and niche products. At the intra-African level, countries are becoming more interconnected in trade of key commodities, but there remain many potential but unexploited trade relationships. The report examines the livestock sector in detail, finding that despite its important role in Africa, the sector is concentrated in low value- added products that are informally traded. The report also examines trade integration in the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), which remains limited due to factors including tariffs, nontariff measures, poor transport infrastructure, and weak institutions. Finally, the report discusses the implications of two major events affecting African trade in 2020 and 2021: the COVID-19 pandemic and the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

PR, IFPRI1; ReSAKSS; IFPRI4; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, AFR; DSGD, In this chapter, critical lessons and insights regarding the effects of social protection on agriculture are drawn from an assessment of the benefits and challenges of linking social protection with agriculture using the experiences of and empirical findings from the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)—the second-largest social protection program in Africa.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; IFPRI4, AFR; MTID, Chapter 5, by Getaw Tadesse and Ousmane Badiane, provides an in-depth examination of the determinants of African agricultural trade performance. The chapter reviews broad categories of trade determinants, including production capacity, the cost of trade, trade policies, domestic agricultural supports, and global market shocks. The chapter then develops a gravity model to assess the relative importance of determinants of African trade and of different trade constraints, discussing how these constraints have changed over time and vary across countries.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI, ESAO; AFR

PR, IFPRI3; ISI, ESAO

PR, IFPRI3; ISI, ESAO

PR, IFPRI4; CRP2, ESAO; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Non-PR, IFPRI1; ReSAKSS; AGRODEP, AFR; MTID, This report has presented an examination of the recent trends, current status, and future outlook of African agricultural trade in global and regional markets.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI, ESAO

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; CRP2; C.2 Institutions and Infrastructure for market development, ESARO; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)