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Different tropospheric precursor anomalies leading to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) may result in different circulation evolution. This study finds that there are distinct differences in tropospheric circulation evolutions during SSWs following anomalously strong- (SUR-SSWs) and weak- (WUR-SSWs) Ural ridge. SUR-SSWs exhibit enhanced East Asian trough in the following week, while enhanced Greenland ridge and negative tropospheric annular mode anomalies can persist for 1 month. In contrast, WUR-SSWs exhibit surface cooling over northern Eurasia without notable tropospheric annular mode anomalies. During SUR-SSWs, waves induced by the enhanced Ural wave source tend to propagate below the tropopause, amplifying the East Asian trough. Additionally, due to decreased wave phase speed, the preexisting Ural ridge anomalies migrate westward and amplify the Greenland ridge. Before WUR-SSWs, preexisting cooling over Northeast Asia migrates westward and amplifies northern Eurasia cooling. Thus, the Ural ridge anomalies prior to SSWs significantly influence post-SSW tropospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the effects of the North Atlantic Sea surface temperature multidecadal variability on Northeast Asia using a set of sensitivity experiments (with a total of 530 ensemble members). We show that a warming of the North Atlantic Ocean leads to a strong and robust increase in temperature over Northeast Asia, which is replicated by a large majority of ensemble members. We show that the effect of the North Atlantic on Northeast Asia is model and season‐dependent. We focus on two seasons, for which response to the North Atlantic Ocean is the most robust (autumn) and the less robust (spring) as indicated by the number of models that simulate a statistically significant change in surface air temperature. We use a clustering method to identify the sources of differences between models in simulating the effects of warming in the North Atlantic. We find that the primary mechanism linking the North Atlantic to Northeast Asia is a perturbation of the circumglobal teleconnection pattern (i.e., of the upper tropospheric atmospheric circulation), which allows modulation of the near‐surface atmospheric circulation and an increase in temperature over East Asia. A second mechanism is related to the influence of the North Atlantic on the Pacific Ocean and the resulting effects on atmospheric circulation over Northeast Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Walker circulation is projected to slow down in response to greenhouse gas warming. However, detecting the impact of human activities on changes in the Walker circulation is challenging due to the significant influence of internal variability. Here, based on ensembles of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we show evidence that the emergence of the human-induced weakening of Walker circulation tends to occur earlier in the middle-upper troposphere than at the surface. This earlier emergence is attributed to a more pronounced initial weakening response of the middle-upper tropospheric Walker circulation to atmospheric CO2 radiative forcing. We further reveal that the emergence time of a weaker Walker circulation varies across models. This intermodel spread is governed by an ocean thermostat that operates by modulating the zonal sea surface temperature gradient over the tropical Indo-Pacific region. Our findings address the key question of whether and how to detect human-induced large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and provide valuable insights for assessing the associated risks. This study shows that human-induced weakening of the Walker Circulation tends to occur earlier in the middle-upper troposphere than at the surface, attributed to the stronger weakening response to CO2 radiative forcing in those heights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During boreal summer, large scale subsidence and a persistent northerly flow, known as the Etesians, characterize the tropospheric circulation over the eastern Mediterranean. The Etesians bring clear skies and alleviate the impact of heat waves over the region. The intraseasonal variability of the Etesians and subsidence over the eastern Mediterranean has been thought to be influenced by the South Asian monsoon and atmospheric processes over the North Atlantic. Here, we employ causal effect networks and causal maps, obtained by applying the Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) causal discovery algorithm, to identify causal precursors of Etesians. We find that both wave train activity over the North Atlantic/North American region and convective activity over South Asia associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are causally related to the Etesians at 3-day time scale. Thus, intraseasonal ISM variability affects the eastern Mediterranean circulation, though its influence is conveyed via a Middle East ridge. On longer weekly time scale, the mid-latitude influence weakens, while the influence of the tropical convective activity via the Middle East ridge remains stable. Moreover, the heat low over the Arabian Peninsula, a feature strongly responsible for the development of the Etesians, is caused by a stronger Middle East ridge and not by North Atlantic wave activity. Finally, we discuss potential implication for circulation changes in the eastern Mediterranean due to anthropogenic global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sea breeze characteristics for 30 years of summer (1981–2010) in the coastal region of Jiangsu Province were analysed in this study, using the four‐step filter method based on ECMWF Fifth‐Generation Reanalysis (ERA5) data. The results showed that the filtering method reasonably identified three types of sea breeze. Additionally, approximately 23% of the total summer days remained; the corkscrew type dominates the three types of sea breeze; and the backdoor sea breeze was the least common. Except for the type of backdoor sea breeze, the other two types had relatively fixed dominant weather types on three coastlines. The synoptic weather patterns in the 500‐hPa level corresponding to each sea breeze type were different. Further, the details of the diurnal cycle of lower tropospheric circulation indicated the strength of the onshore wind and the location of the large potential temperature gradient at noon being influenced by sea breeze type and coastal location. The wind strength for the three types of sea breeze on the middle coastline was stronger than that on the other two coastlines. On the three coastlines, strong onshore winds were concentrated in areas near the coastline, where they reached their maximum strengths around noon. On the southern coastline, strong onshore winds moved further inland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of northern polar vortex in the stratosphere (SPV) in December‐January on Asia's surface air temperature (SAT) in February has been examined using reanalysis data sets and a barotropic model. An out‐of‐phase interannual linkage between the SPV in December‐January and SAT in February during 1979–2022 has been observed, that is, a strong (weak) SPV corresponds to a cooling (warming) over Asia. Approximately 25% of the SAT over Asia in February can be explained by the SPV in December‐January. This relationship between the SPV and SAT is independent of the Arctic Oscillation. The influence of the SPV on SAT over Asia cannot be solely explained by radiative processes, but is instead related to circulation anomalies in the troposphere. A stronger SPV tends to result in negative geopotential height anomalies with cyclonic circulation over Asia. The SPV‐related geopotential height over Asia is accompanied by a weakened teleconnection pattern between the North Atlantic and Asia, with three centers from the northeastern Atlantic‐eastern Europe‐Asia, and fewer stationary waves propagated from North Atlantic into Asia. These anomalous circulation patterns and anomalous northerly wind over Central Asia in February are beneficial to the colder air transportation from the higher latitudes to Asia, facilitating a surface cooling over Asia. Our results shed light on the interannual linkage between SPV and SAT over Asia, suggesting that the SPV in December‐January could be considered as a new predicator of SAT in February over Asia. Plain Language Summary: Scientists and the public have become increasingly aware of the significant influences of the stratosphere on tropospheric weather and climate. While numerous studies have focused on the crucial roles of stratospheric anomalies in shaping surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over Europe and North America, relatively little attention has been given to understanding the potential impacts of stratospheric polar vortex over Arctic (SPV) on SAT over Asia. In this study, we found a robust and out‐of‐phase linkage between the SPV in December‐January and SAT in February over Asia during 1979–2022. A stronger SPV tends to induce an anomalous cyclonic circulation characterized by negative geopotential height, facilitating the transport of colder air from higher latitudes to Asia, thereby contributing a cooling effect on the surface. Our findings suggest that the December‐January SPV can serve as a predictor for SAT in February over Asia. Key Points: A strong (weak) SPV in December‐January tends to result in a cooling (warming) over Asia in February on interannual timescalesThe out‐of‐phase linkage between December‐January SPV and February surface air temperature (SAT) is independent of AO in FebruaryThe influence of SPV on Asia SAT is related to the tropospheric circulation anomalies via dynamic process, rather than radiative process [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the potential role and mechanism of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in influencing the relationship between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasia during boreal early winter. Our results show that there are variations in the SPV-related SAT anomalies over Eurasia between different phases of QBO, i.e., SAT anomalies exhibit a south- north pattern (colder south and warmer north over Eurasia) in easterly phase of QBO (EQBO) compared to westerly phase of QBO (WQBO) in strong SPV years (SSPV), while a northeast-southwest pattern (colder northeast and warmer west over Eurasia) in weak SPV years (WSPV). On average, the contributions of SPV and QBO to SAT anomalies are approximately 29.4% and 12.6%, respectively. Further analysis suggested that these SAT differences between EQBO and WQBO under different SPV conditions are associated with the corresponding atmospheric circulation in the troposphere over Eurasia. The south-north pattern of SAT anomalies during SSPV is attributed to a stronger amplitude of the anomalous anticyclone in western Eurasia, which shifts westward, and the eastward shifting of anomalous cyclonic center in northwestern Eurasia in EQBO. But the southwest-northeast pattern during WSPV is related to anomalous cyclone over western Eurasia and the eastward shifting of anticyclone over northwestern Eurasia in EQBO. These tropospheric circulation anomalies are influenced by the propagation of planetary waves induced by QBO. The SPV weakens in EQBO compared to WQBO, which is accompanied by the strengthened (weakened) low-latitude waveguide and reinforced (shifting southward) subtropical jet stream during SSPV (WSPV) years. The different responses of subtropical jet are mainly related to the tropopause and the meridional temperature gradient around the tropopause caused by QBO via the meridional circulation and Holton-Tan relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal variability of Southern Hemisphere (SH) synoptic-scale weather systems is analysed for the 20-year timespan 1997 to 2016. The relationships between the SH jet streams and storm tracks based on lower tropospheric circulation anomalies filtered into the high-pass (periods < 4 days) and band-pass (periods between 4 and 8 days) types are examined based on 6-hourly reanalysis data. Leading Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) and storm tracks based on all (growing and decaying) disturbances are determined. As well, the structure and standard deviations of streamfunction fluctuations are determined separately in three growth rate and three decay rate bins focusing on explosive growth and decay. In all cases, and in each season, the band-pass storm tracks are more zonally symmetric than the high-pass standard deviations and this is also reflected by the EOFs. Leading EOFs in both bands are monopole wavetrains of highs and lows located in the storm tracks with some band-pass disturbances having dipole structures consistent with blocking and northwest cloud bands. EOFs based on the bin with slow-growing fluctuations are structurally similar to the standard EOFs based on all disturbances. EOFs for moderately and explosively growing disturbances are increasingly displaced equatorward with a larger growth rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Instead of using the traditional space-time Fourier analysis of filtered specific atmospheric fields, a normal-mode decomposition method was used to analyze South American intraseasonal variability (ISV). Intraseasonal variability was examined separately in the 30–90-day band, 20–30-day band, and 10–20-day band. The most characteristic structure in the intraseasonal time-scale, in the three bands, was the dipole-like convection between the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and the central-east South America (CESA) region. In the 30–90-day band, the convective and circulation patterns were modulated by the large-scale Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). In the 20–30-day and 10–20-day bands, the convection structures were primarily controlled by extratropical Rossby wave trains. The normal-mode decomposition of reanalysis data based on 30–90-day, 20–30-day, and 10–20-day ISV showed that the tropospheric circulation and CESA–SACZ convective structure observed over South America were dominated by rotational modes (i.e., Rossby waves, mixed Rossby-gravity waves). A considerable portion of the 30–90-day ISV was also associated with the inertio-gravity (IGW) modes (e.g., Kelvin waves), mainly prevailing during the austral rainy season. The proposed decomposition methodology demonstrated that a realistic circulation can be reproduced, giving a powerful tool for diagnosing and studying the dynamics of waves and the interactions between them in terms of their ability to provide causal accounts of the features seen in observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is estimated to have warmed up to four times faster than the rest of the globe since the 1980s. There is significant interest in understanding the mechanisms by which such warming may impact weather and climate at lower latitudes. One such mechanism is the "stratospheric pathway"; Arctic warming is proposed to induce a wave‐driven weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, which may subsequently impact large‐scale tropospheric circulation. However, recent comprehensive model studies have found systematic differences in both the magnitude and sign of the stratospheric response to Arctic warming. Using a series of idealized model simulations, we show that this response is sensitive to characteristics of the warming and mean polar vortex strength. In all simulations, imposed polar warming amplifies upward wave propagation from the troposphere, consistent with comprehensive models. However, as polar warming strength and depth increases, the region through which waves can propagate is narrowed, inducing wave breaking and deceleration of the flow in the lower stratosphere. Thus, the mid‐stratosphere is less affected, with reduced sudden stratospheric warming frequency for stronger and deeper warming compared to weaker and shallower warming. We also find that the sign of the stratospheric response depends on the mean strength of the vortex, and that the stratospheric response in turn plays a role in the magnitude of the tropospheric jet response. Our results help explain the spread across multimodel ensembles of comprehensive climate models. Plain Language Summary: In the last four decades, the Arctic has warmed significantly faster than the rest of the world. Such warming has been suggested to generate waves in the atmosphere that move up into the stratosphere, where they break. If this were particularly powerful, it could disrupt and slow the typically strong and stable band of stratospheric winds encircling the winter pole, with potential consequences for surface weather and climate. However, state‐of‐the‐art models disagree on how this "stratospheric polar vortex" responds to Arctic warming, even in terms of whether it will become weaker or stronger. In this study, our simplified climate model simulations indicate that the stratospheric response depends on certain characteristics of the Arctic warming. As it increases in strength and vertical extent, upward‐moving waves are confined and forced to break lower down, resulting in fewer disruptions of the vortex above. We also find that the state of the vortex influences whether it weakens or strengthens, with implications for near‐surface winds. Our results help explain the range of stratospheric responses simulated by more complex models. Key Points: In a simple GCM, the sign and magnitude of the stratospheric polar vortex response to Arctic warming is highly sensitive to the basic stateThe stratospheric response also depends on the strength and vertical extent of Arctic warming in the troposphereStronger/deeper warming narrows the lower stratospheric waveguide, slowing winds at lower levels than with weaker/shallower warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric ozone, and its response to anthropogenic forcings, provides an important pathway for the coupling between atmospheric composition and climate. In addition to stratospheric ozone's radiative impacts, recent studies have shown that changes in the ozone layer due to 4xCO2 have a considerable impact on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) tropospheric circulation, inducing an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic jet during boreal winter. Using simulations produced with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) high-top climate model (E2.2), we show that this equatorward shift of the Atlantic jet can induce a more rapid weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The weaker AMOC, in turn, results in an eastward acceleration and poleward shift of the Atlantic and Pacific jets, respectively, on longer time scales. As such, coupled feedbacks from both stratospheric ozone and the AMOC result in a two-time-scale response of the NH midlatitude jet to abrupt 4xCO2 forcing: a "fast" response (5–20 years) during which it shifts equatorward and a "total" response (∼100–150 years) during which the jet accelerates and shifts poleward. The latter is driven by a weakening of the AMOC that develops in response to weaker surface zonal winds that result in reduced heat fluxes out of the subpolar gyre and reduced North Atlantic Deep Water formation. Our results suggest that stratospheric ozone changes in the lower stratosphere can have a surprisingly powerful effect on the AMOC, independent of other aspects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) have an individual impact on the northern winter stratospheric polar vortex. This study considered the joint impact of ENSO and QBO using the reanalysis and observational data. The combinations of ENSO and QBO winds are split into four groups, El Niño-easterly QBO, El Niño-westerly QBO, La Niña-easterly QBO, and La Niña-westerly QBO, and the impact of each joint group is compared with the linear superposition of the individual impacts of ENSO and QBO with the interference from other factors removed. On average, the stratospheric polar vortex exhibits weakening in the pure El Niño and easterly QBO composites and exhibits strengthening in the pure La Niña and westerly QBO composites as compared with the climatology. The observed joint ENSO and QBO signals in the Arctic stratosphere are mostly a linearly superposed combination between them. This interference of QBO and ENSO's impacts is also observed in the tropospheric circulation and tropical convections, which are related to teleconnection in the upper troposphere controlling the amount of planetary waves entering stratosphere to further impact Artic stratospheric polar vortex. Although El Niño and easterly QBO cooperate to weaken the stratospheric polar vortex, and La Niña and westerly QBO cooperate to strengthen, but their impact on the tropospheric North Pacific circulation and tropical rainfall are opposite with signs reversed. As a consequence, the joint effect of El Niño-easterly QBO/La Niña-westerly QBO on the stratosphere is stronger than that of El Niño-westerly QBO/La Niña-easterly QBO. However, the joint impact of El Niño-easterly QBO on the North Pacific troposphere and tropical rainfall is weaker than that of El Niño-westerly QBO. Further analysis on the wave activities and Brewer-Dobson circulation also confirms the linear interference between effects of ENSO and QBO in the stratosphere, although this linearity is less evident in the troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of eastern and southeastern Australia (SEAUS) suffered from historic flooding, heat waves, and drought during the quasi-decadal 2010–2022 period, similar to that experienced globally. During the double La Niña of the 2010–2012 period, SEAUS experienced record rainfall totals. Then, severe drought, heat waves, and associated bushfires from 2013 to 2019 affected most of SEAUS, briefly punctuated by record rainfall over parts of inland SEAUS in the late winter/spring of 2016, which was linked to a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole. Finally, from 2020 to 2022 a rare triple La Niña generated widespread extreme rainfall and flooding in SEAUS, resulting in massive property and environmental damage. To identify the key drivers of the 2010–2022 period's precipitation and temperature extremes due to accelerated global warming (GW), since the early 1990s, machine learning attribution has been applied to data at eight sites that are representative of SEAUS. Machine learning attribution detection was applied to the 52-year period of 1971–2022 and to the successive 26-year sub-periods of 1971–1996 and 1997–2022. The attributes for the 1997–2022 period, which includes the quasi-decadal period of 2010–2022, revealed key contributors to the extremes of the 2010–2022 period. Finally, some drivers of extreme precipitation and temperature events are linked to significant changes in both global and local tropospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A unique set of relaxation experiments with a forecast model initialized during December–January 1999–2019 is used to explore tropical influence on the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling, to quantify predictability benefits due to the perfect knowledge of the tropical variability. On average, predictability of the polar stratosphere, as represented by the 50 hPa geopotential height anomalies north of 50°N (Z50), increases from 17 days in freely running (control) forecasts to 21 days in the tropical relaxation experiments. At sub‐seasonal time‐scales, a statistically significant improvement in weekly mean skill scores can be demonstrated in 14%–20% of individual forecast ensembles, mostly in cases when the skill of the corresponding control forecast is worse than average. In these forecasts, root‐mean‐square errors and forecast spread of Z50 during forecast weeks 3–5 are decreased by 10%–15%. Stratospheric improvements are detected during periods of both vortex strengthening and vortex weakening, including most major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings that occurred during the study period, via modulation of the upward wave activity fluxes. An active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is found in most of these events with MJO phase 5–7 preceding vortex weakening and MJO phase 3–4 preceding vortex strengthening. Forecasts with improved stratospheric circulation also have improved tropospheric circulation during and after the periods when improvements are detected in the stratosphere. We attribute these improvements to both stratosphere–troposphere coupling and tropospheric tropical teleconnections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric Final Warmings (SFWs) are considered to have a distinct impact on the surface weather and stratospheric ozone. Most SFWs are predominantly wave‐driven, while previous studies generally focused on the effects of tropospheric anomalous wave forcing on stratospheric wave amplification. This study demonstrates the crucial role of preconditioned stratospheric modulation on the occurrence of wave‐driven SFWs in the Northern Hemisphere, using ERA5 reanalysis. In most cases, the preconditioned stratospheric state is the key factor in determining the occurrence of both early and late SFWs. The tropospheric anomalous wave forcing cannot independently trigger most SFWs without stratospheric modulation. The proportion of anomalous stratospheric signals followed by SFWs is much higher than that of anomalous tropospheric forcing, even if the proportions of SFWs preceded by anomalous stratospheric signals and tropospheric wave forcing are similar. Additionally, about 25% of SFWs are only preceded by stratospheric modulation without anomalously strong tropospheric wave amplification. Plain Language Summary: Each Spring, the extratropical‐stratospheric circumpolar westerly called the polar vortex, reverses to summertime easterly in the Northern Hemisphere. This seasonal transition is known as stratospheric final warmings (SFWs). SFWs have been suggested to exert a notable impact on the tropospheric circulation and stratospheric ozone. There is considerable interannual variability in the timing of SFWs, from as early as mid‐March to as late as May. The timing of SFWs is crucial for subseasonal to seasonal climate predictability. Early SFWs and many late SFWs are predominantly driven by stratospheric wave forcing. Climatologically, the stratospheric planetary waves originate from the troposphere. Thus, the stratospheric wave amplification in SFWs is generally attributed to the effects of anomalous wave sources in the troposphere. However, our results suggest that the modulation of preconditioned stratospheric signals is the key factor in the occurrence of both early and late SFWs. The stratospheric modulation is not less important for triggering SFWs than the anomalous wave forcing from the troposphere. Key Points: The modulation of preconditioned stratospheric state on stratospheric wave amplification is a key factor to trigger wave‐driven stratospheric final warmings (SFWs)More than half of SFWs is preceded by anomalously strong stratospheric signalsAbout 25% of SFWs are only preceded by robust stratospheric signals and without anomalously strong tropospheric wave forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A seminal study by Hoskins and Karoly (1981) explored the atmospheric circulation response to tropospheric heating perturbations at low and mid latitudes. Here we revisit and extend their study by investigating the circulation and temperature response to low, mid and high latitude surface heating using an idealised moist, gray radiation model. Our results corroborate previous findings showing that heating perturbations at low and mid latitudes are balanced by different mean circulation responses - upward motion and horizontal temperature advection, respectively. Transient eddy heat flux divergence plays an increasingly important role with latitude, becoming the main circulation response at high latitudes. However, this mechanism is less efficient at balancing heating perturbations than temperature advection, leading to greater reliance on an additional contribution from radiative cooling. These dynamical and radiative adjustments promote stronger lower tropospheric warming for surface heating at high latitudes compared with lower latitudes, suggesting a mechanism by which sea ice loss promotes a polar-amplified temperature signal of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss and subsequent near-surface impacts by analyzing 200-member coupled experiments using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) with preindustrial, present-day, and future sea ice conditions specified following the protocol of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The stratospheric polar vortex weakens significantly in response to the prescribed sea ice loss, with a larger response to greater ice loss (i.e., future minus preindustrial) than to smaller ice loss (i.e., future minus present-day). Following the weakening of the stratospheric circulation in early boreal winter, the coupled stratosphere–troposphere response to ice loss strengthens in late winter and early spring, projecting onto a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern in the lower troposphere. To investigate whether the stratospheric response to sea ice loss and subsequent surface impacts depend on the background oceanic state, ensemble members are initialized by a combination of varying phases of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and interdecadal Pacific variability (IPV). Different AMV and IPV states combined, indeed, can modulate the stratosphere–troposphere responses to sea ice loss, particularly in the North Atlantic sector. Similar experiments with another climate model show that, although strong sea ice forcing also leads to tighter stratosphere–troposphere coupling than weak sea ice forcing, the timing of the response differs from that in WACCM6. Our findings suggest that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the stratospheric circulation and subsequent tropospheric variability on seasonal time scales, but modulation by the background oceanic state and model dependence need to be taken into account. Significance Statement: This study uses new-generation climate models to better understand the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on the surface climate in the midlatitudes, including North America, Europe, and Siberia. We focus on the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, which involves the weakening of stratospheric winds and its downward coupling into the troposphere. Our results show that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the surface climate in the midlatitudes via the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, and highlight the modulations from background mean oceanic states as well as model dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on observations and numerical simulations, this study explores the responses of Asian precipitations in summer to the vertical structure of Stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), and the relevant mechanisms. Compared to the QBO phase defined by a particular level traditionally, considering QBO's vertical structure leads to more significant precipitation responses. When the tropical zonal winds exhibit easterlies (westerlies) at 70 hPa and westerlies (easterlies) at both 30 and 50 hPa, there are downwellings (upwellings) over tropics and upwellings (downwellings) over mid‐latitudes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The meridional movement of the subtropical westerly jet is related to this secondary circulation, accompanied by anomalies of the South Asian High. These circulation anomalies lead to anomalous lower tropospheric circulations, causing abnormal vertical velocities and moisture transports, resulting in increased precipitation over South Asia and decreased precipitation in the Yangtze River basin. Plain Language Summary: With large populations and developed agriculture, understanding the factors influencing summer precipitation in South and East Asia is crucial for predicting future changes. While the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) has been recognized as a predictive factor for summer precipitation in these regions, its effects are still uncertain. This study finds that the vertical structure of QBO should be considered when predicting summer precipitation over South and East Asia, rather than the QBO index on a certain level. When the zonal winds over the tropics exhibits the westerlies at 30 and 50 hPa and easterlies at 70 hPa, there's increased precipitation in South Asia, and decreased precipitation in the Yangtze River basin, and vice versa. The possible mechanism is the QBO's vertical structure stimulates secondary circulations, leading to anomalies in the SWJ and the SAH, resulting in summer precipitation changes. These findings could contribute to the extended forecast for summer precipitation in South and East Asia. Key Points: Summer precipitation in South and East Asia significantly responds to the specific vertical structure of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO)Easterlies at 70 hPa and westerlies at 30 and 50 hPa drive more summer precipitation in South Asia while less in Yangtze River BasinThe mechanism is abnormally strong secondary circulation motivated by QBO affects the subtropical jet stream and the South Asian High [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold winters over Eurasia often coincide with warm winters in the Arctic, which has become known as the "warm Arctic–cold Eurasia" pattern. The extent to which this observed correlation is indicative of a causal response to sea ice loss is debated. Here, using large multimodel ensembles of coordinated experiments, we find that the Eurasian temperature response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak compared to internal variability and is not robust across climate models. We show that Eurasian cooling is driven by tropospheric and stratospheric circulation changes in response to sea ice loss but is counteracted by tropospheric thermodynamical warming, as the local warming induced by sea ice loss spreads into the midlatitudes by eddy advection. Although opposing effects of thermodynamical warming and dynamical cooling are found robustly across different models or different sea ice perturbations, their net effect varies in sign and magnitude across the models, resulting in diverse model temperature responses over Eurasia. The contributions from both tropospheric dynamics and thermodynamics show substantial intermodel spread. Although some of this spread in the Eurasian winter temperature response to sea ice loss may stem from model uncertainty, even with several hundred ensemble members, it is challenging to isolate model differences in the forced response from internal variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the long-term (1980–2019) spatio-temporal trends, variability and teleconnections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) of all districts of Haryana, India and their impact on agricultural productivity. The gridded datasets of India Meteorological Department (IMD) were used to statistically analyse the rainfall distribution, trend, coefficient of variation and intensity of rainfall. The gridded datasets of European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis V5 (ERA5) were examined for lower and upper tropospheric wind circulation (850 hPa and 200hpa), vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT) and surface moisture flux (SMF). The datasets of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were correlated with ISMR and composite deviation of rainfall and rainfall intensity during El Niño and La Niña from neutral years was examined at district level. Our analysis revealed that districts lying in eastern agroclimatic zone (EAZ) of Haryana received more ISMR during each month of monsoon season as compared to the ones situated in western agroclimatic zone (WAZ). Trend-free pre-whitening Mann–Kendall (TFPW-MK) test revealed that Kurukshetra, Panipat, Ambala, Rohtak, Faridabad, Jhajjar, Sonipat, Fatehabad and Palwal have shown a decreasing trend while Mahendragarh and Panchkula have shown an increasing trend of rainfall. During the El Niño years, most of the locations in the state received deficient to large deficient category, whereas during the La Niña episodes, most of the locations received excess to large excess category of ISMR, which is indicative of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the regional scale. The influence of ISMR on bajra productivity for the districts lying in WAZ and rice productivity for the districts lying in EAZ was undertaken. This study is beneficial for understanding the impacts of climate change and climate variability on ISMR dynamics in Haryana which may further guide the policy-makers and beneficiaries for optimising the use of hydrological resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The peculiarities of the troposphere and stratosphere dynamic processes that accompanied cooling events (cold waves) with a duration of more than a week in the northwest of European Russia (on the example of St. Petersburg) and in its north and center (on the example of Moscow) in early and late December 2021, respectively, are analyzed using reanalysis data, station observations, and trajectory modeling. In both cases the daily temperatures dropped below −10°C, and cold waves were accompanied by the air mass transport from the northeast [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Silk Road pattern (SRP) and circumglobal teleconnection pattern (CGT) are two well-known teleconnection patterns, representing the summer circulation variations of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, which have different definitions but are often regarded as one teleconnection pattern. In view of the distinct features of the SRP/CGT on the interannual (IA) and interdecadal (ID) timescales, the present study investigates the linkages and differences between the SRP and CGT on the two timescales, respectively. On the IA timescale, both the SRP and CGT feature a similar circumglobal wave train structure with strong and significant centers over Eurasia but show clear independence. Specifically, the SRP and CGT illustrate largely the mid-/high-latitude-related and tropics-related parts of the Northern Hemisphere upper tropospheric circulation variations, respectively. Also, the CGT shows a stronger connection to the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) heating and El Niño–Southern Oscillation than the SRP, which makes the CGT more like a tropical forcing-driven atmospheric mode and the SRP more like an internal atmospheric mode. The linkages and differences between them are associated with their asymmetrical relationship during their positive and negative phases, which are attributed mainly to the asymmetrical impact of the ISM heating/cooling on the Eurasian circulations. On the ID timescale, the SRP and CGT are characterized by a coherent two-wave train structure over Eurasia and feature a similar teleconnection pattern over Eurasia, which is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The present findings on their linkages and differences are helpful in understanding the variability and prediction of the SRP and CGT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Montreal Protocol and its amendments (MPA) have been a huge success in preserving the stratospheric ozone layer from being destroyed by unabated chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions. The phaseout of CFCs has not only prevented serious impacts on our health and climate, but also avoided strong alterations of atmospheric circulation patterns. With the Earth system model SOCOLv4, we study the dynamical and climatic impacts of a scenario with unabated CFC emissions by 2100, disentangling radiative and chemical (ozone-mediated) effects of CFCs. In the stratosphere, chemical effects of CFCs (i.e., the resulting ozone loss) are the main drivers of circulation changes, weakening wintertime polar vortices and speeding up the Brewer–Dobson circulation. These dynamical impacts during wintertime are due to low-latitude ozone depletion and the resulting reduction in the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Westerly winds in the lower stratosphere strengthen, which is for the Southern Hemisphere (SH) similar to the effects of the Antarctic ozone hole over the second half of the 20th century. Furthermore, the winter and spring stratospheric wind variability increases in the SH, whereas it decreases in summer and fall. This seasonal variation in wind speed in the stratosphere has substantial implications for the major modes of variability in the tropospheric circulation in the scenario without the MPA (No-MPA). We find coherent changes in the troposphere, such as patterns that are reminiscent of negative Southern and Northern Annular modes (SAM and NAM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) anomalies during seasons with a weakened vortex (winter and spring); the opposite occurs during seasons with strengthened westerlies in the lower stratosphere and troposphere (summer). In the troposphere, radiative heating by CFCs prevails throughout the year, shifting the SAM into a positive phase and canceling out the ozone-induced effects on the NAO, whereas the North Pacific sector shows an increase in the meridional sea-level pressure gradient as both CFC heating and ozone-induced effects reinforce each other there. Furthermore, global warming is amplified by 1.7 K with regionally up to a 12 K increase over eastern Canada and the western Arctic. Our study sheds light on the adverse effects of a non-adherence to the MPA on the global atmospheric circulation, uncovering the roles of the underlying physical mechanisms. In so doing, our study emphasizes the importance of the MPA for Earth's climate to avoid regional amplifications of negative climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large-scale extratropical circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is much more zonally symmetric than that of the Northern Hemisphere, but its zonal departures, albeit highly relevant for regional impacts, have been less studied. In this study we analyse the joint variability of the zonally asymmetric springtime stratospheric and tropospheric circulation using Complex Empirical Orthogonal Functions (cEOF) to characterise planetary waves of varying amplitude and phase. The leading cEOF represents variability of a zonal wave 1 in the stratosphere that correlates slightly with the Symmetric Southern Annular Mode (S-SAM). The second cEOF (cEOF2) is an alternative representation of the Pacific-South American modes. One phase of this cEOF is also very highly correlated with the Asymmetric SAM (A-SAM) in the troposphere. Springs with an active ENSO tend to lock the cEOF2 to a specific phase, but have no consistent impact on its magnitude. Furthermore, we find indications that the location of Pacific Sea Surface Temperature anomalies affect the phase of the cEOF2. As a result, the methodology proposed in this study provides a deeper understanding of the zonally asymmetric springtime extratropical SH circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fifty years of daily ERA5 reanalysis data are employed to investigate the linkages between the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex and the tropospheric polar vortex during the boreal winter. The strong coupling events, anomalies in both the stratospheric and tropospheric polar vortices, can be classified into four configurations, each representing the distinct characteristics of planetary wave vertical propagation and tropospheric circulation anomalies. The findings reveal the following patterns: (1) Strong stratospheric polar vortex and weak tropospheric polar vortex periods are associated with anomalous downward E-P flux from the stratosphere to the troposphere, predominantly induced by planetary waves 1 and 2. Warm anomalies occur along the North Atlantic coasts, while cold anomalies are evident over Eastern Europe and East Asia at the surface. (2) Weak stratospheric polar vortex and strong tropospheric polar vortex periods exhibit anomalous upward E-P flux in high latitudes, with dominant wave 1, and anomalous downward E-P flux in the middle latitudes, dominated by wave 2. Warm anomalies are observed over North America, Western Europe, and the northern side of the Gulf of Oman at the surface. (3) Strong stratospheric polar vortex and strong tropospheric polar vortex periods feature anomalous downward E-P flux in high latitudes, dominated by wave 1, and anomalous upward E-P flux in middle latitudes, with a wave 2 predominance. Warm anomalies prevail over Northeast Asia, Southern Europe, and North America at the surface. (4) Weak stratospheric polar vortex and weak tropospheric polar vortex periods display anomalous upward E-P flux in mid-to-high latitudes, predominantly with wave 1. In contrast to the tropospheric circulation anomalies observed in the third category, this pattern results in the presence of cold anomalies over Northeast Asia, Southern Europe, and North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events can form a window of forecast opportunity for polar vortex predictions on subseasonal‐to‐seasonal time scales. Analyzing numerical ensemble simulations, we quantify the associated enhanced predictability due to reduced upward planetary wave fluxes during the mostly radiatively driven recovery phase following SSWs. Ensembles that predict an SSW show reduced ensemble spread in terms of polar vortex strength for several weeks to follow, as well as a corresponding reduction in forecast errors. This increased predictability is particularly pronounced for strong SSWs and even occurs if not all ensemble members predict a major SSW. Furthermore, we found a direct impact of the occurrence of SSWs on the date of the final warming (FW): the decrease in upward wave fluxes delays the FW significantly. The reduced spread after SSWs and the delay in FW date have potentially further implications for (subseasonal) predictions of the tropospheric and mesospheric circulations. Plain Language Summary: The polar vortex is a large scale circulation active during winter in the higher levels of the polar atmosphere. Changes in the strength of the polar vortex can have an impact on the weather over mid‐latitude regions like Europe. This is the case especially for the period after so‐called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, where the polar vortex breaks down very abruptly and then slowly recovers over several weeks. Such a break‐down of the polar vortex tends to suppress wave activity and hence reduces the dynamical variability in the polar stratosphere, leading to a more predictable evolution of the circulation. We quantify the strength and timescale of this increase in predictability of the polar vortex after an SSW using a large set of winter time model forecasts. Key Points: Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) lead to reduced forecast spread in the polar stratosphere for several weeks after the eventReduced forecast spread after SSWs is driven by suppressed vertical planetary wave propagation due to persistent negative wind anomaliesFinal warmings are delayed for winters with SSW, consistent with reduced upward wave fluxes following the SSW [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand the impact of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) propagation on summer precipitation in North China, this study analysed the quantitative relationship between the BSISO and summer precipitation in North China and its influence mechanism using summer precipitation data from 1981 to 2020, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The results show that there is a strong correlation between summer precipitation in North China and the BSISO. Over the past 40 years, the variance in summer precipitation anomalies in North China caused by BSISO1 accounted for 16.8%, whereas the impact of BSISO2 accounted for 13.1%. Their combined impact accounted for 30% of the variance in summer precipitation in North China. The BSISO influences summer precipitation process in North China primarily through upper tropospheric circulation and lower‐level water vapour transport. At 500 and 200 hPa, the BSISO excited some disturbance centres of a deep barotropic structure propagating from west to east along the upper‐tropospheric westerly jet. North China is controlled by the blocking circulation pattern of "high in the east and low in the west" while there is a negative (positive) anomaly near Lake Baikal and a positive (negative) anomaly near the Korean Peninsula. At 850 hPa, the BSISO stimulates an anticyclonic circulation anomaly on the north side of its convective area, and the southerly winds on the west side of the anticyclone enhance water vapour transport to North China. This high‐ and low‐level circulation configuration is favourable for precipitation processes in North China. The results suggest that the influence of both low‐frequency signals in the middle and high latitudes and the BSISO signal in the tropics should be considered to make extended‐range forecasts of precipitation processes in North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme disruptions of the wintertime polar vortex that can alter the tropospheric weather for over 2 months. However, the reasons why only some SSWs have a tropospheric impact are not yet clear. This study analyses the tropospheric impact of SSWs over the Atlantic region as measured by the latitudinal displacement of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet following SSWs. We use reanalysis data for the period 1950–2020 to examine differences in the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation for SSWs with an equatorward (EQ) or a poleward (POLE) shift. Our results show a stronger and more persistent Northern Annular Mode (NAM) signal in the lower stratosphere for EQ than for POLE, beginning 2 weeks before the onset date. In the troposphere, we find precursory signals of the Atlantic jet behavior over Siberia, consistent with previous studies, and also over the central North Pacific and central Europe. In particular, our results suggest that the noncanonical poleward jet shift response to SSWs is in part modulated by circulation anomalies over the central North Pacific, and that these are in turn connected to the cold phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Further analysis of the enhanced predictability given by these precursors suggests that the sign of the lower-stratospheric NAM and the geopotential anomalies over the central North Pacific significantly affect the probability of having an EQ or POLE response of the Atlantic jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant pattern of Northern Hemisphere extratropical climate variability is the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which in wintertime represents the coupling of the stratospheric and tropospheric circulations. The internal variability associated with the NAM has been shown to give rise to substantial uncertainty in climate projections of regional surface air temperatures (SATs), but it's unclear how much of this variability arises from stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes. Here, using three large‐ensemble coupled climate model simulations from 1850 to 2100 with varying fidelity of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes, we demonstrate that regional SAT variability across timescales is amplified when the tropospheric NAM is coupled to the stratospheric NAM. Moreover, models that lack adequate simulation of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes may not capture the magnitude of uncertainty in near‐term SAT projections associated with this coupling. Plain Language Summary: Large‐scale atmospheric circulation variability drives substantial variation in regional surface air temperatures (SATs), so that even on 30–40 year timescales local cooling trends are possible even as global‐mean temperatures increase. We provide evidence that when the stratospheric mean flow is coupled to the tropospheric mean flow, the decadal variability of SATs is amplified in some regions. Some models do not represent well the observed coupling of the stratosphere to the troposphere, and these models may underestimate decadal variability associated with this coupling. Key Points: The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) exhibits decadal variability that can accelerate or slow the rate of anthropogenic regional surface warmingAmplified decadal variability of extratropical surface temperatures occurs when the NAM is coupled from the stratosphere to the troposphereModels that fail to adequately capture vertical coupling may underestimate the magnitude of decadal variations in surface air temperatures [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme stratospheric wave activity has been suggested to be connected to surface temperature anomalies, but some key processes are not well understood. Using observations, we show that the stratospheric events featuring weaker‐than‐normal wave activity are associated with increased North American (NA) cold extreme risks before and near the event onset, accompanied by less frequent atmospheric river (AR) events on the west coast of the United States. Strong stratospheric wave events, on the other hand, exhibit a tropospheric weather regime transition. They are preceded by NA warm anomalies and increased AR frequency over the west coast, followed by increased risks of NA cold extremes and north‐shifted ARs over the Atlantic. Moreover, these links between the stratosphere and troposphere are attributed to the vertical structure of wave coupling. Weak wave events show a wave structure of westward tilt with increasing altitudes, while strong wave events feature a shift from westward tilt to eastward tilt during their life cycle. This wave phase shift indicates vertical wave coupling and likely regional planetary wave reflection. Further examinations of CMIP6 models show that models with a degraded representation of stratospheric wave structure exhibit biases in the troposphere during strong wave events. Specifically, models with a stratospheric ridge weaker than the reanalysis exhibit a weaker tropospheric signal. Our findings suggest that the vertical coupling of extreme stratospheric wave activity should be evaluated in the model representation of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling. Plain Language Summary: It is challenging to predict cold spells beyond 2 weeks due to chaotic weather systems. Taking into account stratospheric variability may push predictions beyond this limit. Previous studies have suggested that a stratospheric circulation pattern is connected to surface temperature. Strong and weak stratospheric wave events are defined based on the phase of this pattern. In observations, we find more frequent cold spells over North America and less precipitation over the west coast before and around weak wave events. On the other hand, strong wave events correspond to significant weather changes. Warmer weather over North America and more precipitation over the west coast occur before strong wave events, while more frequent cold spells over North America take place around 10 days later. We reveal that the weather changes during strong wave events correspond to a transition in the vertical structure of planetary waves. State‐of‐the‐art climate models capture the overall linkage between stratospheric wave events and surface conditions. We further illustrate that the models incapable of simulating a realistic stratospheric wave pattern tend to show larger biases in the troposphere during strong wave events. Our findings urge the need to improve the stratospheric wave representation in climate models. Key Points: Increased risks of cold spells over North America follow strong stratospheric wave events or precede weak stratospheric wave eventsThe vertical wave coupling during strong wave events features a shift of vertical wave phase line from westward tilt to eastward tiltIntermodel spread in stratospheric wave structure correlates with tropospheric circulation anomalies during strong wave events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) on tropical convection and precipitation is investigated through nudging experiments using the UK Met Office Hadley Center Unified Model. The model control simulations show robust links between the internally generated QBO and tropical precipitation and circulation. The model zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere was nudged above 90 hPa in atmosphere‐only and coupled ocean‐atmosphere configurations. The convection and precipitation in the atmosphere‐only simulations do not differ between the experiments with and without nudging, which may indicate that SST‐convection coupling is needed for any QBO influence on the tropical lower troposphere and surface. In the coupled experiments, the precipitation and sea‐surface temperature relationships with the QBO phase disappear when nudging is applied. Imposing a realistic QBO‐driven static stability anomaly in the upper‐troposphere lower‐stratosphere is not sufficient to simulate tropical surface impacts. The nudging reduced the influence of the lower troposphere on the upper branch of the Walker circulation, irrespective of the QBO, indicating that the upper tropospheric zonal circulation has been decoupled from the surface by the nudging. These results suggest that grid‐point nudging mutes relevant feedback processes occurring at the tropopause level, including high cloud radiative effects and wave mean flow interactions, which may play a key role in stratospheric‐tropospheric coupling. Plain Language Summary: The interaction between the stratosphere and the troposphere is well known to produce surface impacts in the extratropics. However, whether stratosphere‐troposphere interactions affect the surface in the tropics associated with the variability of the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) is yet to be determined because the observational record is too short and tropical tropospheric variability masks any potential signal of the stratosphere. In this paper, we examine hypotheses that explain how the QBO could affect tropical deep convection and tropical precipitation variability through targeted model experiments which prescribe the equatorial stratosphere. Our results indicate that prescribing the zonal wind in the stratosphere remove links between surface precipitation and the QBO. Therefore, nudging the stratosphere decouples the stratospheric mean flow and anomalies from the tropospheric processes, which emphasizes the role of feedbacks. Key Points: Nudging the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) removes impacts to tropical precipitationThe QBO impact on upper‐level static stability is not sufficient to influence tropical precipitation in this modelFeedbacks, muted by nudging, may be key for stratospheric‐tropospheric coupling [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires are a significant source of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere. Extreme fires in particular, such as those during the 2019–2020 Australian wildfire season (Black Summer fires), can have considerable large-scale effects. In this context, the climate impact of extreme wildfires unfolds not only because of the emitted carbon dioxide but also due to smoke aerosol released up to an altitude of 17 km. The overall aerosol effects depend on a variety of factors, such as the amount emitted, the injection height, and the composition of the burned material, and is therefore subject to considerable uncertainty. In the present study, we address the global impact caused by the exceptionally strong and high-reaching smoke emissions from the Australian wildfires using simulations with a global aerosol–climate model. We show that the absorption of solar radiation by the black carbon contained in the emitted smoke led to a shortwave radiative forcing of more than +5 Wm-2 in the southern mid-latitudes of the lower stratosphere. Subsequent adjustment processes in the stratosphere slowed down the diabatically driven meridional circulation, thus redistributing the heating perturbation on a global scale. As a result of these stratospheric adjustments, a positive temperature perturbation developed in both hemispheres, leading to additional longwave radiation emitted back to space. According to the model results, this adjustment occurred in the stratosphere within the first 2 months after the event. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), the net effective radiative forcing (ERF) averaged over the Southern Hemisphere was initially dominated by the instantaneous positive radiative forcing of about +0.5 Wm-2 , for which the positive sign resulted mainly from the presence of clouds above the Southern Ocean. The longwave adjustments led to a compensation of the initially net positive TOA ERF, which is seen in the Southern Hemisphere, the tropics, and the northern mid-latitudes. The simulated changes in the lower stratosphere also affected the upper troposphere through a thermodynamic downward coupling. Subsequently, increased temperatures were also obtained in the upper troposphere, causing a global decrease in relative humidity, cirrus amount, and the ice water path of about 0.2 %. As a result, surface precipitation also decreased by a similar amount, which was accompanied by a weakening of the tropospheric circulation due to the given energetic constraints. In general, it appears that the radiative effects of smoke from single extreme wildfire events can lead to global impacts that affect the interplay of tropospheric and stratospheric budgets in complex ways. This emphasizes that future changes in extreme wildfires need to be included in projections of aerosol radiative forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), as a major component of the land–atmosphere interaction, affects the TP thermal conditions. And, as a direct climatic factor of vegetation, precipitation over the TP is significantly regulated by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Using remote-sensing-based vegetation images, meteorological observations, and reanalysis datasets, this study deeply explored the influence of the ISM on vegetation on the TP in its main growing season, where the vegetation on the TP is indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The findings reveal that the ISM is a critical external factor impacting the TP vegetation and has a significantly positive correlation with the TP precipitation and NDVI. Corresponding to a strong ISM, the South Asia high moves northwestward toward the TP and Iranian Plateau with an increase in intensity, and the cyclonic circulation develops over the south of the TP in the middle-lower troposphere. This tropospheric circulation structure aids in the transportation of more water vapor to the TP and enhances convection there, which facilitates more precipitation and thus the TP vegetation growth, featuring a uniform NDVI pattern. Since the positive correlation between precipitation over the TP and NDVI is weaker than that between the ISM and NDVI, we suggest that the ISM can influence the TP vegetation growth not only through changing precipitation but also through other local climatic factors. The increased convection and precipitation over the TP induced by the ISM can also affect the surface thermal conditions, featuring an interaction between the TP vegetation and heat sources. The evapotranspiration of vegetation and its coverage affect local latent and sensible heat fluxes, while the TP thermal condition changes affect in return the vegetation growth. In addition, the changes in thermal conditions over the TP caused by the substantial increase in vegetation may have a de-correlation effect on the relationship between the ISM and uniform NDVI pattern after the TP vegetation reaches its maximum coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Molecular oxygen in our atmosphere has increased from less than a part per million in the Archean Eon to a fraction of a percent in the Proterozoic and finally to modern levels during the Phanerozoic. The ozone layer formed with the early Proterozoic oxygenation. While oxygen itself has only minor radiative and climatic effects, the accompanying ozone has important consequences for Earth climate. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a 3-D general circulation model (GCM), we test the effects of various levels of ozone on Earth's climate. When CO 2 is held constant, the global-mean surface temperature decreases with decreasing ozone, with a maximum drop of ∼3.5 K at near total ozone removal. By supplementing our GCM results with 1-D radiative flux calculations, we are able to test which changes to the atmosphere are responsible for this temperature change. We find that the surface temperature change is caused mostly by the stratosphere being much colder when ozone is absent; this makes it drier, substantially weakening the greenhouse effect. We also examine the effect of the structure of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere on the formation of clouds and on the global circulation. At low ozone, both high and low clouds become more abundant due to changes in the tropospheric stability. These generate opposing shortwave and longwave radiative forcings that are nearly equal. The Hadley circulation and tropospheric jet streams are strengthened, while the stratospheric polar jets are weakened, the latter being a direct consequence of the change in stratospheric temperatures. This work identifies the major climatic impacts of ozone, an important piece of the evolution of Earth's atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The possible influence of changes in the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex on the extratropical troposphere especially in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is still not well understood. Using the ERA5 reanalysis and based on the k-mean clustering algorithm, the northern winter stratospheric polar vortex is categorized into several regimes, which mainly reflect the difference in the intensity and central position of the vortex. As a consequence, the stratospheric polar vortex can be clustered into six groups, including the homogeneously-intensified (HI), homogeneously-weakened (HW), North America-intensified (NAI), North America-weakened (NAW), Eurasia-intensified (EUI), and Eurasia-weakened (EUW) shapes. Statistics of each polar vortex clustering confirms that the yearly frequency of the HI state shows a decreasing trend in past decades, while the HW increases as inferred from the long-term trend. Further, the evolutions of the tropospheric circulation and climate anomalies are explored following each clustering. It is revealed that both the strength and central position of the stratospheric polar vortex significantly modulate the behavior of tropospheric circulation and near surface climate. The relationship between the stratospheric polar vortex regimes and the tropospheric teleconnections are examined. The conventional stratosphere–troposphere coupling via the downward propagation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) signal is confirmed. Other tropospheric teleconnections are also associated with the stratospheric regimes. The Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) is well correlated with the shift of the stratospheric polar vortex, and the Eurasian pattern (EU) is sensitive to the HI and NAW patterns. The patterns of rainfall and temperature anomalies following the six stratospheric regimes are different. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since March 2020, the COVID‐19 pandemic has significantly reduced the availability of global aircraft‐based observations (ABOs), which has been restored later in 2021. This study focuses on the impact of ABOs on a regional reanalysis. Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) is a regional reanalysis for a period from 1979 to 2020 (originally up to 2018) over India and surrounding regions produced at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India, in collaboration with the UK Met Office. A comparison of the impact of ABOs on other conventional and satellite observations assimilated in the NCMRWF global model and IMDAA during 2019 and 2020 revealed the importance of ABOs, particularly in IMDAA, since it did not assimilate the latest satellite data as the IMDAA system was frozen in October 2016. A data denial experiment that removes all the ABOs from the IMDAA assimilation system for a period from March to November 2019 is designed. The results from the IMDAA reanalysis run, which assimilates ABOs during the same period, are compared with the data denial experiment. Assimilation of ABOs strengthened the upper tropospheric circulation, the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), during the Indian summer monsoon compared to the data denial experiment. Analysis of the features of two cyclones that developed over the North Indian Ocean during the study period revealed that ABO assimilation played a key role in simulating the track and intensity of these cyclones when they were in the 'severe' category. Since the sample is small, more cyclone cases need to be analysed to consolidate the result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can remarkably impact tropospheric circulation. Based on the diagnosis of reanalysis data, this study finds that the location shift rather than the strength change dominates the intraseasonal variability of SPV. Further analysis suggests that it couples well with the tropospheric circulation, forming an intraseasonal stratosphere–troposphere oscillation (STO). The STO shows periodic westward propagation throughout its life cycle and has a deep structure extending from the troposphere to the stratosphere. It reflects the movement of the SPV toward North America, then the North Pacific, Eurasia, and the North Atlantic, and causes significant changes in surface air temperature over North America and East Asia. The mechanism of the STO involves Rossby wave propagation between the troposphere and stratosphere and cross-scale interactions in the troposphere. Upward Rossby wave propagation from the troposphere over East Asia maintains the STO's stratospheric component, and the reflection of these waves back to the troposphere contributes substantially to the STO's tropospheric center over North America. Meanwhile, the linear and nonlinear processes explain the STO's westward propagation in the troposphere, which facilities vertical wave propagation changes. The STO unifies the SPV shifts, the retrograding tropospheric disturbances, and the wave coupling processes into one framework and provides a holistic view for a better understanding of the intraseasonal stratosphere–troposphere coupling. Given its oscillating nature, time scale, and widespread surface response, the STO may be a potential source of predictability for the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Significance Statement: Stratospheric circulation plays a vital role in influencing tropospheric weather and climate, but its variability and coupling with the troposphere have not been fully understood for the intraseasonal time scale. This study finds that the Northern Annular Mode is the leading mode of variability in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere stratosphere on time scales longer than 60 days, which reflects the changes in the intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex. In contrast, the shift of the stratospheric polar vortex excels as the leading mode on time scales shorter than 60 days and is identified as a stratosphere–troposphere oscillation (STO) phenomenon. In the stratosphere, the STO is characterized by the shift of the polar vortex and rotates clockwise with time. In the troposphere, the STO is manifested as a large-scale westward-propagating circulation in the midlatitudes, with significant near-surface temperature anomalies across the continents. The formation of the STO is further attributed to the vertical and horizontal Rossby wave propagation. As STO is a periodic oscillation, it may serve as a potential predictability source for subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Montreal Protocol and its amendments (MPA) have been a huge success in preserving the stratospheric ozone layer from being destroyed by unabated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) emissions. The phase out of CFCs has not only prevented serious impacts on our health and climate, but also avoided strong alterations of atmospheric circulation patterns. With the Earth System Model SOCOLv4, we study the dynamical and climatic impacts of a scenario with unabated CFC emissions by 2100, disentangling radiative and chemical (ozone-mediated) effects of CFCs. In the stratosphere, chemical effects of CFCs (i.e. the resulting ozone loss) are the main drivers of circulation changes, weakening wintertime polar vortices and speeding up the Brewer-Dobson circulation. These dynamical impacts during wintertime are due to low-latitude ozone depletion and resulting reduction of the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer, the vortex strengthens, similar due to the effects of the Antarctic ozone hole over the second half of the 20th century. Furthermore, the winter and spring vortex variability increases in the SH, whereas it decreases in summer and fall. This seasonal variation of wind speed in the stratosphere has regional implications on the tropospheric circulation modes. We find coherent changes in the troposphere, such as negative Southern Annular mode (SAM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during seasons with a weaker vortex (winter and spring); the opposite occurs during seasons with stronger westerlies in the stratosphere (summer). In the troposphere, radiative heating by CFCs prevails throughout the year, shifting the SAM into a positive phase and canceling out the ozone-induced effects on the NAO. Furthermore, global warming is amplified by 1.9 K with regionally up to 12 K increase over Eastern Canada and Western Arctic. Our study sheds light into the adverse effects of a non-adherence to the MPA on the global atmospheric circulation, uncovering the roles of the underlying physical mechanisms. In so doing, our study emphasizes the importance of the MPA for Earth's climate, to avoid regional amplifications of negative climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric polar vortex is dynamically coupled to the tropospheric circulation. Therefore, a better mechanistic understanding of this coupled system is important to interpret past and future circulation changes correctly. Previously, idealized simulations with a dry dynamical-core general circulation model and imposed tropical upper-tropospheric warming (TUTW) have shown that a critical warming level exists at which the polar vortex transitions from a weak and variable to a strong and stable regime. Here, we investigate the dynamical mechanism responsible for this regime transition and its influence on the troposphere by performing similar idealized experiments with (REF) and without a polar vortex (NPV). According to the critical-layer control mechanism, the strengthened upper flank of the subtropical jet in response to TUTW leads to an accelerated wave-driven residual circulation in both experiments. For the REF experiment, the stronger residual circulation is associated with changes in the lower-stratospheric thermal structure that are consistent with an equatorward shift of the polar vortex. At a certain threshold of TUTW in the REF experiment, the tropospheric jet and the stratospheric polar vortex form a confined waveguide for planetary-scale waves that presumably favors downward wave coupling events. Consistently, the polar vortex strengthens in combination with an enhanced poleward shift of the tropospheric jet compared to the NPV experiment. Overall, these idealized experiments suggest that a polar vortex strengthening can be caused by greenhouse gas–induced warmings via modifications of the waveguide. This mechanism might also be relevant to understand the polar vortex changes in more complex models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have paid much attention to the impact of major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events on the tropospheric circulation. However, the attention to the modulation of minor SSW events on the extreme cold events is limited. In this study, the extreme cold event in Siberia in the winter of 2000/2001, the longest-lasting one from 1980/1981 to 2019/2020, and its linkages to the minor SSW event have been examined. Our results show that the largest cooling occurred in Siberia during 30 December 2000 − 10 January 2001, and then the cooling weakened and migrated to Northeast China from 11 to 18 January 2001. During the recovery stage of this minor SSW event, the stratospheric polar vortex gradually strengthened, along with strengthening of the zonal winds over the Ural region. The vertical distribution of positive zonal wind anomalies in the Ural region favored the reflection of stratospheric planetary wave in the Atlantic-Euro and Siberia region. The changes of planetary wave propagation were beneficial to the strengthening of the trough in the Atlantic-Euro and Siberia region during 26 December − 10 January, which facilitated the growth and maintenance of the Ural ridge in the same period by strengthening the meridional flow. The strengthened Ural ridge resulted in the extreme cold event breaking out and lasting from 30 December to 10 January. Because the stratospheric polar vortex did not continue to strengthen and a new ridge generated in the Atlantic region during 11 − 18 January, the Ural ridge decayed and the cold air moved to Northeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the impact of the mid-latitude oceanic front (MOF) on forecasts using the latest Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal prediction system. We focus on subseasonal predictions of the North Atlantic winter circulation by comparing hindcast experiments with different ocean model resolutions from 1991 to 2020. We find that the higher resolution of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the higher resolution model reveals SST warming south of the MOF and strengthening of local lower tropospheric circulation consistent with previous studies. Anomaly correlation coefficients of the atmospheric field are improved by about 0.1-0.2 in the lower-to-upper troposphere near the MOF for the higher ocean resolution. The influence of the MOF on ambient atmospheric fields is independent of El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions in both reanalysis and model. The greater accuracy of some predictions during La Niña years is probably due to the smaller errors of our model during La Niña compared with El Niño. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The land–sea thermal contrast is the foundation of the occurrences of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). Using multiobservational datasets and model simulations covering the period 1960–2018, this study investigates the relationship that links the thermal contrast between the Asian landmass and the Indian Ocean (TCAI) to the ASM and evaluates the effects of the various driving factors that influence the TCAI in the climate models. The tropospheric TCAI is highly consistent with the ASM circulation, with a stronger ASM circulation and larger tropospheric TCAI before the 1970s and after the late 1990s than those seen from the 1970s to the late 1990s. The tropospheric TCAI is also closely related to rainfall over the Indian landmass and the south-flood–north-drought pattern over eastern China. Thus, the tropospheric TCAI reliably reflects the state of the ASM system and could be used as a new ASM index that directly describes the land–sea thermal contrast. The variation of the surface TCAI is highly consistent with that of the tropospheric TCAI. The model simulation suggests that the main drivers of the surface TCAI are anthropogenic forcing and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Anthropogenic forcing dominates SAT variations over the Indian Ocean, whereas the AMO plays a major role in SAT variations over the Asian landmass, which introduces a large uncertainty into the projections of the ASM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Convective momentum transport (CMT) is the process of vertical redistribution of horizontal momentum by small‐scale turbulent flows from moist convection. Traditional general circulation models (GCMs) and their multiscale modeling framework (MMF) versions poorly represent CMT due to insufficient information of subgrid‐scale flows at each GCM grid. Here the explicit scalar momentum transport (ESMT) scheme for representing CMT is implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model‐Multiscale Modeling Framework (E3SM‐MMF) with embedded 2‐D cloud‐resolving models (CRMs), and verified against E3SM‐MMF simulations with 3‐D CRMs and observations. The results show that representing CMT by ESMT helps reduce climatological mean precipitation model bias over the western Pacific and the ITCZ regions, which is attributed to the weakened mean easterlies over the Pacific. Also, CMT from simulations with 2‐D and 3‐D CRMs impose a similar impact on Kelvin waves by reducing their variability and slowing down their phase speed, but opposite impacts on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) variability. The ESMT scheme readily captures the climatological mean spatial patterns of the zonal and meridional components of CMT and their variability across multiple time scales, but shows some differences in estimating its magnitude. CMT mainly affects the MJO by decelerating its winds in the free troposphere, but accelerates its near‐surface winds. This study serves as a prototype for implementing CMT scheme in the MMF simulations, highlighting its crucial role in reducing model bias in mean state and spatiotemporal variability. Plain Language Summary: Small‐scale turbulent flows from moist convection typically lead to the vertical redistribution of large‐scale winds (referred to as convective momentum transport [CMT]). Due to the coarse grids that are too large to resolve small‐scale flows, traditional earth system models poorly represent the CMT, and thus rely on parameterizations that empirically describe the magnitude and vertical profiles of the CMT. In contrast, the default Energy Exascale Earth System Model‐Multiscale Modeling Framework (E3SM‐MMF) is an earth system model with a 2‐D (one horizontal dimension and one vertical dimension) cloud‐resolving model embedded within each coarse grid so as to better resolve small‐scale flows, although it still lacks the necessary information to fully calculate CMT due to the lack of the third dimension. Here we implemented the explicit scalar momentum transport (ESMT) scheme to represent CMT in the E3SM‐MMF associated with 2‐D small‐scale flows at each coarse grid. The results show that in general CMT helps reduce model biases in predicting time‐mean precipitation and winds as well as the spatiotemporal variability of tropical convection. The ESMT scheme reproduces the spatial patterns of CMT as simulated by the E3SM‐MMF model with 3‐D small‐scale flows. Lastly, we focused on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, the dominant intraseasonal variability in the tropics, as an example to investigate the impact of CMT. Key Points: Convective momentum transport (CMT) affects large‐scale circulation and convective organization, and representing CMT reduces model biases in Energy Exascale Earth System Model‐Multiscale Modeling Framework simulationsExplicit scalar momentum transport scheme captures the spatial pattern of CMT comparable to 3‐D cloud‐resolving models that explicitly model CMTCMT damps the free tropospheric circulation associated with the Madden‐Julian oscillation, but accelerates its near‐surface winds [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) on the zonal asymmetries in the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation during spring and summer is examined. The main objective of the work is to explore if the SPV can modulate the ENSO teleconnections in the extratropics. We use a large ensemble of seasonal hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System to provide a much larger sample size than is possible from the observations alone. We find a small but statistically significant relationship between ENSO and the SPV, with El Niño events occurring with weak SPV and La Niña events occurring with strong SPV more often than expected by chance, in agreement with previous works. We show that the zonally asymmetric response to ENSO and SPV can be mainly explained by a linear combination of the response to both forcings, and that they can combine constructively or destructively. However the nature of this interference evolves through the spring and summer period, and is not aligned with the traditional seasons. From this perspective, we find that the tropospheric asymmetries in response to ENSO are more intense when El Niño events occur with weak SPV and La Niña events occur with strong SPV, at least from September through December. In the stratosphere, the ENSO teleconnections are mostly confounded by the SPV signal. The analysis of Rossby Wave Source and of wave activity shows that both are stronger when El Niño events occur together with weak SPV, and when La Niña events occur together with strong SPV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme events in the stratospheric polar vortex can lead to changes in the tropospheric circulation and impact the surface climate on a wide range of timescales. The austral stratospheric vortex shows its largest variability in spring, and a weakened polar vortex is associated with changes in the spring to summer surface climate, including hot and dry extremes in Australia. However, the robustness and extent of the connection between polar vortex strength and surface climate on interannual timescales remain unclear. We assess this relationship by using reanalysis data and time-slice simulations from two chemistry-climate models (CCMs), building on previous work that is mainly based on observations. The CCMs show a similar downward propagation of anomalies in the polar vortex strength to the reanalysis data: a weak polar vortex is on average followed by a negative tropospheric Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in spring to summer, while a strong polar vortex is on average followed by a positive SAM. The signature in the surface climate following polar vortex weakenings is characterized by high surface pressure and warm temperature anomalies over Antarctica, the region where surface signals are most robust across all model and observational datasets. However, the tropospheric SAM response in the two CCMs considered is inconsistent with observations. In one CCM, the SAM is more negative compared to the reanalysis after weak polar vortex events, whereas in the other CCM, it is less negative. In addition, neither model reproduces all the regional changes in midlatitudes, such as the warm and dry anomalies over Australia. We find that these inconsistencies are linked to model biases in the basic state, such as the latitude of the eddy-driven jet and the persistence of the SAM. These results are largely corroborated by models that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Furthermore, bootstrapping of the data reveals sizable uncertainty in the magnitude of the surface signals in both models and observations due to internal variability. Our results demonstrate that anomalies of the austral stratospheric vortex have significant impacts on surface climate, although the ability of models to capture regional effects across the Southern Hemisphere is limited by biases in their representation of the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is an important driver of winter weather and climate variability and predictability in North America and Eurasia, with a downward influence that on average projects onto the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While tropospheric circulation anomalies accompanying anomalous vortex states display substantial case‐by‐case variability, understanding the full diversity of the surface signatures requires larger sample sizes than those available from reanalyses. Here, we first show that a large ensemble of seasonal hindcasts realistically reproduces the observed average surface signatures for weak and strong vortex winters and produces sufficient spread for single ensemble members to be considered as alternative realizations. We then use the ensemble to analyze the diversity of surface signatures during weak and strong vortex winters. Over Eurasia, relatively few weak vortex winters are associated with large‐scale cold conditions, suggesting that the strength of the observed cold signature could be inflated due to insufficient sampling. For both weak and strong vortex winters, the canonical temperature pattern in Eurasia only clearly arises when North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are in phase with the NAO. Over North America, while the main driver of interannual winter temperature variability is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the stratosphere can modulate ENSO teleconnections, affecting temperature and circulation anomalies over North America and downstream. These findings confirm that anomalous vortex states are associated with a broad spectrum of surface climate anomalies on the seasonal scale, which may not be fully captured by the small observational sample size. Plain Language Summary: The strength of the winds in the stratosphere over the Arctic provides useful information for seasonal forecasts of wintertime weather over Europe and North America. When we study these linkages, it is a challenge that we have few winters—only about 40—with reliable observations from the stratosphere. Here, we use data from a seasonal forecast model to generate a large collection of 3,000 possible winters, and we use these to examine different patterns of surface temperature and sea level pressure for winters with the strongest and weakest winds in the polar stratosphere. Some real‐world episodes have attracted wide attention, including recent cold winters linked to weak stratospheric winds, and there seems to be an anticipation that weak winds in the stratosphere are synonymous with extremely cold weather in many regions. However, our results indicate that these expected surface signatures are in fact not particularly common. There are also scenarios when instead the opposite surface signature emerges. We find that it is not sufficient to know the state of the stratosphere; regional sea surface temperatures can either support or counteract the stratospheric influence on winter weather in any given year. Key Points: The broad spectrum of surface signatures of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies is obscured by the small observational sample sizeA large ensemble indicates the observed magnitude of negative North Atlantic Oscillation and related surface anomalies during weak vortex winters may be inflatedOver North America the main driver of winter temperature variability is El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but the stratosphere can modulate ENSO teleconnections [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis of the relationship between changes in Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) and precipitation in eastern North America (38°–54°N, 65°–87°W; PENA) was performed using observational and reanalysis data coupled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4). We found that March ASO exhibits a strong correlation with PENA in April, indicating that the one-month leading ASO exerts a potentially strong impact on April PENA. Changes in tropospheric circulation over the North Pacific and North America can be influenced by ASO anomalies via stratosphere–troposphere interactions. Increased ASO typically results in the transport of drier, colder air from northwest to eastern North America and suppresses local convective activity by enhancing regional downwelling. These conditions lead to a decrease in regional atmospheric water vapor content (1000–600 hPa). Abnormally high ASO may therefore suppress precipitation, whereas abnormally low ASO serves to enhance precipitation, and the finding is supported by WACCM4 simulations incorporating these ASO anomaly signals. We also present an ASO-based statistical linear model for predicting April PENA. Results confirm that the linear model reproduces April PENA for both training and testing periods, based on March ASO, demonstrating the reliability and stability of this linear model. This study verifies that ASO is a viable predictor for projecting April PENA and thus improving forecasts of regional seasonal precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]