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The availability of longitudinal data allows researchers to analyse the dynamics of poverty. By using the Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TurkStat) Income and Living Conditions Survey micro dataset, we analyse the households’ long-term monetary poverty conditions. We categorise poverty as transitory and chronic and employ the multinomial logit method to analyse determinants of each types of poverty. Results indicate that education and household size are the most effective factors for reducing transitory poverty, and for chronic poverty, the most effective factors are having a regular job and having a skilled occupation; insurance, home ownership, and number of children are important determinants for both types of poverty.

This poverty assessment focuses on the evolution of poverty and other social indicators in Ethiopia between 2010-11 and 2015-2016 (henceforth referred to as 2011 and 2016). Using data from a variety of sources, mainly the twinned household living standards surveys (HCES and WMS), the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey (ESS) and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), the poverty assessment documents trends in monetary and non-monetary dimensions of living standards and examines the drivers of observed trends, with a special focus on government programs. The aim of the poverty assessment is to provide policy makers and development partners with information and analysis that can be used to improve the effectiveness of their poverty reduction and social programs.

This paper investigates the use of early warning tools as part of Ethiopia's Disaster Risk Management framework. Analyzing, in particular, the Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection tool, Livelihood Integrated Assessment and Hotspots Assessments, the paper delineates the scope and objectives of existing early warning tools, their commonalities and limitations. From a disaster risk financing and insurance perspective, the paper investigates possible enhancements in the existing early warning framework and its use that could facilitate greater timeliness of drought response. The paper argues that based on the existing early warning instruments and continued improvements to the early warning systems, it is possible to enable early action during the onset of a drought.

The Pacific island countries (PICs) are some of the most exposed to frequent natural disasters and climate shocks, and their vulnerability is increasing due to mounting effects of climate change as well as demographic and economic forces. Natural disasters hit the poorest hardest and have long-term consequences for human development. Social protection programs and systems have an important role in helping poor and vulnerable populations cope with the impacts of shocks as well as build long-term resilience. This paper discusses the potential role of social protection for disaster and climate risk reduction and management in PICs. It presents evidence and lessons from other regions, providing examples of tools and entry points for the development of climate, and disaster, responsive social protection interventions and context-specific recommendations for PICs.

Most conceptualisations of the bottom billion assume that "the poor" are a minority group in a state of continuous dependency, identifiable by region and demographic. Using a flow analysis (inflow and outflow) of poverty, rather than a stock analysis, we explain why poverty is more appropriately understood as a dynamic, with the majority of people flowing in and out of poverty for short durations. Distinguishing between structural and transitory poverty gives rise to a focus on the identification of multiple constituencies in the wider population including the permanently poor; sometimes poor; and non-poor. External shocks, including economic and environmental shifts, and risks such as ill-health, can affect any individual, household, or population in a non-predictable way, and can lead to loss of livelihood and a descent into poverty for various durations. At any point in time the bottom billion is made up of a blend of both transitory and structural elements with the former reflecting poverty as a risk for a much wider population than is often assumed. Using this analysis, the total stock of poverty potentially entails up to 5.1 billion people who do not have access to comprehensive social protection systems and are therefore vulnerable to spells in poverty. To protect against shared risks and mutual vulnerabilities, this paper argues that global insurance instruments, regulated through domestic institutions, would provide an efficient solution to transitory poverty. Further, it argues that these instruments could provide a foundation for investment in more equitable and extensive social protection measures that could target the multiple dimensions of structural poverty thereby seeking to ensure that no one is left behind.

NAIn Madagascar, the inequalities gap between urban and rural areas implies to draft rural specific policies. Nevertheless, the only focusing on growth might have a limited impact on persistent poverty. All households have not the same capacity to catch new opportunities generated by growth, and those with weakest resources could be durably excluded. Thanks to an applied study on income diversification in rural Madagascar, this paper shows these households are unable to carry out forms of income diversification that protect from poverty. On the contrary, they are forced to choice diversification forms associated with chronic poverty.

In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird eine neue Berechnungsweise des Anteils permanenter Armut an der gesamten vorhandenen Armut vorgestellt. Es wird gezeigt, dass der weithin genutzte Shorrocks-Index zur Zerlegung von permanenter und transitorischer Ungleichheit auch zur Beschreibung von Armut genutzt werden kann. Damit können Unzulänglichkeiten in der von Rodgers & Rodgers (1993) gewählten Berechnung behoben werden. Die Nutzung des hier vorgeschlagenen Armuts-Stabilitäts-Koeffizienten erlaubt eine gut interpretierbare Unterscheidung der relativen Größe von permanenter und transitorischer Armut. Empirische Ergebnisse werden anhand des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels für Ost- und Westdeutschland dargestellt. This paper proposes a new method of calculating the proportion of permanently impoverished persons among persons in poverty as a whole. The paper shows that the widely used Shorrocks-Index for decomposing permanent and transitory inequality can also be acquired to describe poverty. This method overcomes certain difficulties involved in the methods of Rodgers & Rodgers (1993). The characteristics of the proposed Poverty-Stability- Index allow for an intuitive differentiation between the relative sizes of permanent and transitional poverty. Empirical results using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) will be presented for East- and West- Germany.

This paper proposes a new method of calculating the proportion of permanently impoverished persons among persons in poverty as a whole. The paper shows that the widely used Shorrocks-Index for decomposing permanent and transitory inequality can also be acquired to describe poverty. This method overcomes certain difficulties involved in the methods of Rodgers & Rodgers (1993). The characteristics of the proposed Poverty-Stability-Index allow for an intuitive differentiation between the relative sizes of permanent and transitional poverty. Empirical results using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) will be presented for East- and West-Germany. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird eine neue Berechnungsweise des Anteils permanenter Armut an der gesamten vorhandenen Armut vorgestellt. Es wird gezeigt, dass der weithin genutzte Shorrocks-Index zur Zerlegung von permanenter und transitorischer Ungleichheit auch zur Beschreibung von Armut genutzt werden kann. Damit können Unzulänglichkeiten in der von Rodgers & Rodgers (1993) gewählten Berechnung behoben werden. Die Nutzung des hier vorgeschlagenen Armuts-Stabilitäts-Koeffizienten erlaubt eine gut interpretierbare Unterscheidung der relativen Größe von permanenter und transitorischer Armut. Empirische Ergebnisse werden anhand des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) für Ost- und Westdeutschland dargestellt.