Search

In the context of developing countries, early evidence suggests that the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food production systems is complex, heterogenous, and dynamic. As such, robust monitoring of the impact of the health crisis and containment measures across agricultural value chains will likely prove vitally important. With Bangladesh as a case study, we discuss the building blocks of a comprehensive monitoring system for prioritizing and designing interventions that respond to food system disruptions from COVID-19 and preemptively avoid further cascading negative effects. We also highlight the need for parallel research that identifies pathways for enhancing information flow, analysis, and action to improve the efficiency and reliability of input and output value chains. In aggregate, this preliminary work highlights the building blocks of resilient food systems to external shocks such as COVID-19 pandemic in the context of developing nations. In doing so, we call attention to the importance of ‘infection safe’ agricultural input and output distribution logistics, extended social safety nets, adequate credit facilities, and innovative labor management tools alongside, appropriate farm mechanization. In addition, digital extension services, circular nutrient flows, enhanced storage facilities, as well as innovative and robust marketing mechanisms are required. These should be considered in parallel with effective international trade management policies and institutions as crucial supportive measures.

The purpose of our study is to evaluate the impact of saltwater intrusion on the productivity and technical efficiency (TE) of rice farms in Central Vietnam using the stochastic frontier (SF) production function. In contrast to existing studies, this research quantitatively analyses rice variety and season-differentiated impact of soil salinity (as measured by electrical conductivity (EC)) on the TE of rice production. The empirical results indicate that salinity induces significantly varying negative impacts on yield and technical inefficiency of rice farms depending on the salinity class, variety planted and the season. TE begins to sharply decline after reaching salinity class 3 (EC = 4–8 dS/m) and drops to zero under salinity class 4 (EC = 8–16 dS/m) unless salt-tolerant (ST) varieties are planted. A 1% increase in the EC level decreases rice yields by 0.24% in various SF models, while TE shows a cubic relationship with EC, with negative coefficients for linear and quadratic terms. A combination of farm plots consolidation, irrigation, integrated pest management, input optimisation and shifts in varietal selection can potentially offset the yield decline caused by saline intrusion for salinity classes 1 to 4, while adoption of ST varieties seems to be the best option for higher salinity classes over 4. These adaptation measures could also help farmers to avoid maladaptive options such as increased use of pesticide sprays to offset the yield losses due to soil salinity resulting from saline water intrusion. The insights offered by the study is applicable to coastal delta regions cultivating rice in whole of Asia and in other continents.

Increasing soil salinisation is an environmental stressor that causes significant reduction in crop productivity and increases the risk of farming and hence reduces the cultivated land area. For these reasons, soil salinisation is considered to be one of the most serious problems threatening food security. In the north central coastal region of Vietnam, saltwater intrusion in the dry season is a major concern for rice farming. To better understand the adverse impacts of soil salinisation in crops, this study investigates impacts of salinity on mean and variability of rice yields in four communes of Thua Thien Hue Province. In addition, the study looks at possible changes in the portfolio of rice cultivars, which would offer farmers the potential to increase yields and decrease yield variability simultaneously. Results clearly showed that salinity had an impact on yield levels, resulting in an average yield loss of 0.164 tonnes/ha from mean yield levels per unit increase of electrical conductivity. The results did not show that increasing salinity contributes to an increase in variability of yields, but points to the fact that saline water intrusion may lead to consistently lower yields in the study area. Results also indicate that farmers with smaller, scattered plots could be disproportionately affected by salinity and be less capable of managing the saline soils. In addition, saline conditions may also drive the increased use of environmentally damaging inputs, such as pesticides, to offset the decline in yields and thereby potentially lead to a vicious circle. Utilisation of an optimised portfolio of rice varieties that combine profit maximisation and risk reduction reveals that farmers can benefit from revised portfolios of existing varieties at initial salinity levels, but need to include salt-resistant varieties in the portfolio as salinity levels increase.

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the Paris agreement target a global cleaner energy transition with wider adaptation, poverty reduction and climate resilience benefits. Hydropower development in the transboundary Koshi river basin in the Himalayan region presents an intervention that can support the SDGs whilst meeting the regional commitments to the Paris agreement. This study aims to quantify the benefits of proposed water resource development projects in the transboundary basin (4 storage and 7 run-of-the-river hydropower dams) in terms of hydroelectric power generation, crop production and flood damage reduction. A hydro-economic model is constructed by soft coupling hydrological and crop growth simulation models to an economic optimization model. The model assesses the potential of the interventions to break the vicious cycle of poverty and water, food, and energy insecurity. Unlike previous studies, the model (a) incorporates the possibility of using hydropower to pump groundwater for irrigation as well as flood regulation and (b) quantifies the resilience of the estimated benefits under future climate scenarios from downscaled general circulation models affecting both river flows and crop growth. The results show significant potential economic benefits generated from electricity production, increased agricultural production, and flood damage control at the transboundary basin scale. The estimated annual benefits are around USD 2.3 billion under the baseline scenario and USD 2.4 billion under a future (RCP 4.5) climate scenario, compared to an estimated annual investment cost of USD 0.7 billion. The robustness of the estimated benefits illustrates the climate resilience of the water resource development projects. Contrary to the commonly held view that the benefits of these proposed projects are limited to hydropower, the irrigation and flood regulation benefits account for 40 percent of the total benefits. The simulated scenarios also show substantial irrigation gains from the construction of the ROR schemes, provided the generated power is also used for groundwater irrigation. The integrated modelling framework and results provide useful policy insights for evidence-based decision-making in transboundary river basins around the globe facing the challenges posed by the water-food-energy nexus.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 2016 adversely affected Vietnam particularly in the Mekong River Delta (MRD), where more than 90% of the country’s rice export is produced annually. During that time, salinity intrusion and drought significantly affected agricultural production in the area. Furthermore, flooding is another recurring event in the area that is increasing in frequency. An assessment conducted by CGIAR Centers showed that even as warnings were provided by the government for the 2016 ENSO, these were not translated into appropriate preparations and responsive actions for agriculture. To address this critical issue, the Department of Crop Production (DCP) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) of Vietnam, and CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Southeast Asia (CCAFS-SEA) collaborated to develop and test an participatory approach for mapping climate risks and adaptive interventions (CS-MAP) to recognize climate-related risks, identify potentially affected areas and develop regional and provincial adaptation plans for rice production. The CS-MAP is a participatory approach involving experts from various local and national offices for: (1) identifying climate-related risks; (2) delineating affected areas and risk levels; (3) proposing corresponding adaptive plans; (4) fine tuning and verifying proposed measures; and (5) developing integrated provincial and regional adaptation plans. Risks and adaptive interventions maps were developed for normal and ENSO years by using technical data (i.e. topography and hydrology), infrastructures (i.e. dikes, road and canals), and local observations. CS-MAP is now is under various stages of development and implementation in 13 MRD provinces highlighting the organizational uptake and integration of the approach. Keywords: Participatory mapping, Climate risk and adaptation, CS-MAP, Rice production, Vietnam

Climate information services (CIS) are increasingly in demand to assist farmers in managing risks associated with climate variability and extremes experienced in food production. However, there are significant gaps in the availability and accessibility of these services, especially in aquatic food production in developing countries. In response, this study aims to generate the background knowledge for developing climate information and decision support services tailored for aquaculture farmers in Bangladesh. We surveyed 800 fish-farming households, interviewed 30 key informants, and conducted a systematic literature review to identify climate-sensitive operations and management decisions in aquaculture and to document fish-farmers' awareness of the relationships between climate variability and aquatic food production systems. We also sought to identify the lead time and communication method(s) needed to deploy forecasts effectively and prepare aquaculture farmers to act in response to the forecasts. A fish-farming activity calendar was developed that identified high temperature, cold spell, heavy rainfall, and dry spell events as key climatic phenomena affecting year-round aquaculture operations, including pond preparation and maintenance, fingerling stocking, grow-out management, and harvesting. We also identified five climate-sensitive management decision points and 26 potential advisories in line with specific climate variability to manage induced risks in the day-to-day operations of fish farmers. Finally, the research team developed a decision framework based on the temperature and rainfall thresholds for the grow-out phase of four widely cultivated and economically important fish species in Bangladesh. This innovative decision support approach is to our knowledge the very first endeavor to develop CIS using species-specific temperature and rainfall thresholds to reduce climate risks and ensure resilience capacity for South Asian aquaculture system.

Among technological adaptation options, climate information services (CIS) offers high potential as a means to offset climate change impacts and build resilience in farming areas of developing countries. This study explores the potential of CIS, by investigating the case of participatory CIS development in the Lower Ganges Delta of Bangladesh. Specifically, we examined the value farmers attached to a co-developed CIS as decision support tool and the price farmers were willing to pay for CIS subscriptions. Based on a hypothetical market for CIS, we used contingent valuation with a double-bounded dichotomous choice format to determine farmers willingness to pay (WTP) for CIS. Two samples were included: an experiment group of farmers exposed to and trained in CIS use for farm decision-making and a control group of farmers without prior exposure to CIS. More than 90% of farmers in the experiment group expressed willingness to pay for CIS, compared to 75% of the control group. The annual subscription fees farmers were willing to pay ranged from 970.92 taka (US $11.45) to 1387.20 taka ($16.36). WTP was greater among farmers who had participated in CIS co-development. The main factors influencing farmers’ willingness to pay were CIS cost and prior exposure and training to CIS. Given that Bangladesh has more than 16.5 million farm households, these findings suggest huge market potential for CIS. Based on the high potential of participatory CIS, governmental institutions, the private sector and social entrepreneurs are called upon to develop CIS for smallholders, to unlock smallholders’ agriculture potential.

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement propose a country’s contribution to global mitigation efforts and domestic adaptation initiatives. This paper prov...

South Asia is the world’s most poverty-dense region, where climate change and climate variability are expected to result in increased heat stress and erratic precipitation patterns that affect agricultural productivity. Considerable evidence has been generated on the effects of these stresses on crop yield, though previous research has not yet examined their influence on the economic efficiency of cereal producers. Surveying 240 farmers across eight of Pakistan’s twelve agro-ecological zones, we examined the impact of temperature and precipitation anomalies – as indicators of climatic variability – and the number of days when temperature exceeds crop specific heat stress thresholds on the economic efficiency of rice and wheat production. To this end, we employed first-stage stochastic production frontier (SPF) models and second-stage ordinary least square (OLS) and quantile regression models. Both OLS and quantile regressions indicated that terminal heat >34 °C has a significant negative impact on wheat production economic efficiency. Small positive deviation (0.54 °C ± 0.16 SD) of the wheat season’s mean temperature from the medium-term historical mean also significantly and negatively affected economic efficiency across all regression models. Heat stress >35.5 °C during rice flowering in the monsoon also had a significant and negative impact. A slight positive deviation in temperature averaging 0.38 °C (±0.11 SD) above the medium-term mean also had significant negative effects across all regressions. Cumulative precipitation conversely had significant yet contrary effects, by offsetting farmers’ investment in supplementary irrigation and increasing economic efficiency. Our results highlight the fact that indicators of climatic variability and heat stress negatively affect the economic efficiency of both rice and wheat producing farmers. Farmers’ education and access to financial and extension services were however both positively associated with economic efficiency. Our findings point to the importance of developing interlinked agronomic, economic and socio-ecological policy strategies to adapt and increase the resilience of Pakistan’s cereal systems to climatic variability.

To improve food security, many countries adopt protectionist measures and block actions that are needed to improve the competitiveness and efficiency of domestic food commodity production. This article evaluates the policy of imposing an import tariff in order to improve the domestic production of sunflower oil in Tanzania. Promoting domestic production of edible oil in Tanzania through reduction in production costs and increase in productivity efficiency could lead to a stable and sustainable supply of edible oil at affordable prices to consumers. Annual edible oil demand currently is around 400,000 t, a figure that is increasing at a rate of 3% annually. Tanzania imports 60% of its edible oil needs, consuming much of its scarce foreign currency reserves. There is growing interest and efforts by the government and other stakeholders to improve the competitiveness of domestic sources of edible oils in order to substitute for imports. Tanzania, in line with its edible oil strategy 2016–2020, has imposed a 10% tariff on imported edible oils as an import substitution trade policy. There is a strong need for evidence-based assessment of this policy intervention, with this paper evaluating it, using the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) approach. Three central issues – competitiveness, efficiency, and policy transfers – are analyzed here. Results show that domestic edible oil producers have a comparative advantage but taxes on tradable inputs render domestic edible oil producers uncompetitive. Therefore, there is a need for Tanzania to protect domestic edible oil producers by reducing taxes on tradable inputs, as this will enable an increase in the domestic production of edible oils, which consequently would save the country the foreign currency that is spent on edible oil imports. Tanzania needs to adopt policies that can improve the competitiveness and efficiency of agriculture rather than increased protectionism.

Conservation tillage (CT) options are among the most rapidly spreading land preparation and crop establishment techniques globally. In South Asia, CT has spread dramatically over the last decade, a result of strong policy support and increasing availability of appropriate machinery. Although many studies have analyzed the yield and profitability of CT systems, the technical efficiency impacts accrued by farmers utilizing CT have received considerably less attention. Employing a DEA framework, we isolated bias-corrected meta-frontier technical efficiencies and meta-technology ratios of three CT options adopted by wheat farmers in Bangladesh, including bed planting (BP), power tiller operated seeding (PTOS), and strip tillage (ST), compared to a control group of farmers practicing traditional tillage (TT). Endogenous switching regression was subsequently employed to overcome potential self-selection bias in the choice of CT, in order to robustly estimate efficiency factors. Among the tillage options studied, PTOS was the most technically efficient, with an average meta-technology ratio of 0.90, followed by BP (0.88), ST (0.83), and TT (0.67). The average predicted meta-frontier technical efficiency for the CT non-adopters under a counterfactual scenario (0.80) was significantly greater (P = 0.00) than current TE scores (0.65), indicating the potential for sizeable profitability increases with CT adoption. Conversely, the counterfactual TE of non-adopters was 23% greater than their DEA efficiency, also indicating efficiency gains from CT adoption. Our results provide backing for agricultural development programs in South Asia that aim to increase smallholder farmers’ income through the application of CT as a pathway towards poverty reduction. JEL Codes C06 ● C14 ● Q12 ● C34 ● C51

Rice and wheat are the principal calorie sources for over a billion people in South Asia, although each crop is particularly sensitive to the climatic and agronomic management conditions under which they are grown. Season-long heat stress can reduce photosynthesis and accelerate senescence; if extreme heat stress is experienced during flowering, both rice and wheat may also experience decreased pollen viability and stigma deposition, leading to increased grain sterility. Where farmers are unable to implement within-season management adaptations, significant deviations from expected climatic conditions would affect crop growth, yield, and therefore have important implications for food security. The influence of climatic conditions on crop growth have been widely studied in growth chamber, greenhouse, and research station trials, although empirical evidence of the link between climatic variability and yield risk in farmers’ fields is comparatively scarce. Using data from 240 farm households, this paper responds to this gap and isolates the effects of agronomic management from climatic variability on rice and wheat yield risks in eight of Pakistan’s twelve agroecological zones. Using Just and Pope production functions, we tested for the effects of crop management practices and climatic conditions on yield and yield variability for each crop. Our results highlight important risks to farmers’ ability to obtain reliable yield levels for both crops. Despite variability in input use and crop management, we found evidence for the negative effect of both season-long and terminal heat stress, measured as the cumulative number of days during which crop growth occurred above critical thresholds, though wheat was considerably more sensitive than rice. Comparing variation in observed climatic parameters in the year of study to medium-term patterns, rice, and wheat yields were both negatively affected, indicative of production risk and of farmers’ limited capacity for within-season adaptation. Our findings suggest the importance of reviewing existing climate change adaptation policies that aim to increase cereal farmers’ resilience in Pakistan, and more broadly in South Asia. Potential agronomic and extension strategies are proposed for further investigation.

Many studies have examined the impact of climatic variability on agricultural productivity, although an understanding of these effects on farmland values and their relationship to farmers’ decisions to adapt and modify their land-use practices remains nascent in developing nations. We estimated the impacts of the deviation in our study year's (2012) temperature and precipitation patterns from medium-term (1980–2011) climatic patterns on farmland values in Pakistan. This was accomplished by employing a modified form of a Ricardian regression model. We also examined farmers’ perceptions of climate change during this period, as well as their perceptions of climate change impacts on farm productivity, in addition to past and anticipated farm adaptation strategies. Our results indicate that positive temperature deviation from the medium-term mean – indicative of climatic change – affects farmland values in Pakistan. Deviation in annual cumulative precipitation conversely appears to have no significant impact. Estimates of the marginal impact of temperature deviation suggested a slight but negative linear relationship with farmland values. The location of farms in areas where farmers can avail financial or extension services conversely had a positive impact on farmland values, as did the availability of irrigation facilities. Our analysis of farmers’ perceptions of climate change and their consequent adaptation behavior indicated a relatively high degree of awareness of climatic variability that influenced a number of proactive and future anticipated farm adaptation strategies. Examples included increased use of irrigation and farm enterprise diversification, as well as land-use change, including shifting from agriculture into alternative land uses. National policy in Pakistan underscores the importance of maintaining a productive rural agricultural sector. Our findings consequently highlight the importance of appropriate adaptation strategies to maintain both farm productivity and farmland values in much of Pakistan. The implications of increased extension and financial services to enhance farmers’ potential for climate change adaptation are discussed.

The Mekong River Delta is the rice production hub in South-east Asia and has a key role in determining rice prices in the world market. The increasing variability in the local climate due to global climate changes and the increasing severity of the ENSO phenomenon threatens rice production in the region, which has consequences for local and global food security. Though existing mapping efforts delineate the consequences of saline water intrusion during El Niño and flooding events during La Niña in the basin, research to predict future impacts in rice production is rather limited. The current work uses ORYZA, an ecophysiological model, combined with historical climate data, climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 and climate-related risk maps to project the aggregate productivity and rice production impacts by the year 2050. Results show that in years of average salinity intrusion and flooding, the winter-spring rice crop in the MRD would experience an average annual decrease of 720,450 tons for 2020–2050 under the RCP4.5 scenario compared to the baseline of 2005–2016 average and another 1.17 million tons under the RCP8.5 scenario. The autumn-winter crop would decrease by 331,480 tons under RCP4.5 and 462,720 tons under RCP8.5. In years of severe salinity intrusion and flooding, the winter-spring rice crop would decrease by 2.13 million tons (10.29% lower than the projection for an average year) under RCP4.5 and 2.5 million tons (13.62%) under RCP8.5. Under severe conditions, the autumn-winter crop would have an average decrease of 1.3 million tons (7.36%) under RCP4.5 and 1.4 million tons (10.88%) for the RCP8.5 scenario. Given that most of the rice produced in this area is exported, a decline in rice supply at this scale would likely have implications on the global market price of rice affecting global food security. Such decline will also have implications for the rural economy and food security of Vietnam. Suggestions for corrective measures to reduce the impacts are briefly discussed.

Context Increasing salinity levels demand adaptative and transformative changes in farming systems in regions affected by saltwater intrusion intensified by global climate change. The study area, a narrow delta affected by salinity intrusion due to rising sea levels as well as by diminishing rainfall during the dry season in north-central coastal region of Vietnam represents this global challenge. Apart from the level of salinity, farmer characteristics, legal framework and the expected returns to investment on the available choices shape the future trajectories of these farming systems. Nevertheless, relatively less research efforts are focused on understanding these choices and the trade-offs. Objective The study focus on identifying and determining the acceptability of adopting stress tolerant rice varieties, changes in cropping sequences, or a transformative shift to aquaculture conditional to the degree of saltwater intrusion as well as gaining insight into required policy changes to facilitate the adaptation and transformation in rice farming deltas. Methods The current study reports a novel choice experiment (CE) approach to analyse the roles of risk attitude, expected returns, production costs, effort levels and legal restrictions on the preferences for adaptation alternatives and their interactions with salinity levels using random parameter models. Results and conclusions The results reveal the role of perceived risks and labour efforts in adaptative choices and highlight the need for risk offset mechanisms as well as labour-saving interventions. The simulations using the estimated random parameter models predict farmers affected by salinity below the critical threshold of 4 dS/m of electrical conductivity (EC) will have a 34.4% adoption rate for traditional rice and a 43.6% rate for salinity-tolerant rice varieties, which will drop by 2 to 3 percentage points when the current legal restrictions on conversion to aquaculture are waived. In the case of farmers facing higher salinity levels, aquaculture would likely become the dominant option, with 40% of the cohort of farmers adopting aquaculture (17.2% adopting shrimp and 22.4% adopting polyculture), followed by saline-tolerant rice (36% to 38%). Significance The results reveal the need for increased investment in rice breeding for salinity tolerance, market development for alternative crops, introduction of risk offset mechanisms and a planned shift to transformative alternatives such as aquaculture. The findings of this study call for a balanced effort for adaptative and transformative options for rice farmers, infrastructural options preventing salinity intrusion and enhanced global mitigation efforts to reduce the possible rise in sea levels and limit salinity intrusion.

The article describes how economic resilience of farming households can be measured using a composite indicator of revealed adaptive actions, and investigates how capabilities of farm households to recombine human, financial, natural and physical capitals are linked to observed economic resilience to land set-aside interventions. The land set-aside intervention known as the Grain for Green Project (GGP), which has been altering livelihoods of farming households in China’s Loess Hills since 1999, is taken as a case study. Household surveys were conducted in three V-shaped valleys and three riparian areas in Yanhe Township in northwestern China in an effort to measure household resilience and explore its’ relationship to forms of capital. A composite index of adaptive strategies that can reorganize livelihood activities under land set-aside intervention into a new economic equilibrium is crafted using an objective weighting scheme based on principal component analysis. Subsequently, a multiple regression model was utilized to examine the relationship between the composite resilience index and various indicators related to human, social, financial, natural and physical capitals. The results reveal the latent structure and internal correlations of adaptive strategies, and present quantitative evidence about the relationship between livelihood capitals and household economic resilience. The analysis shows that household resilience deteriorates when the ratio of GGP land to cultivated farmland goes above a threshold level, and revealed that interventions targeting various forms of capitals can enhance the economic resilience for households to conservation efforts.

The predicted increase in frequency and severity of flooding events poses substantial challenges for the farming communities of developing countries. Given the financial limitations of governments in these countries, the concept of participatory flood management is of high relevance. This article studies how communities can participate in structural measures such as embankments/dikes. Given that surplus rural labor is available due to the seasonal nature of agricultural operations, this paper utilizes a field survey for exploring the willingness to contribute (WTC) labor by rural households in Pakistan towards a hypothetical flood-protection scheme. Results show a potential labor contribution of 11.07 man-days per year per household (equivalent to Rs. 4,084 or 39 USD). The WTC decision is positively influenced by the number of adult family members, livestock damage, compensation received and expected effectiveness of the intervention, but is negatively influenced by age and education of the household head, farm income and the distance of the farm from the river. The study concludes that community resources (e.g., manual labor) can be utilized for flood mitigation, which may reduce the costs of building and maintaining the infrastructure while increasing the sense of security and ownership. This would also ensure the sustainability of flood protection interventions to a considerable extent.

Several studies estimate the immediate impact of climate change on agricultural societies in terms of changes in crop yields or farm income, though few studies concentrate on the immediate secondary consequences of climate change. This synthetic analysis uses a set of indicators to assess the repercussions of predicted income reductions resulting from climate change on food consumption, nutrition, health expenditure, education, and recreation in Zimbabwe, Cameroon, South Africa and Ethiopia. We also assess the potential decline in human development potential among smallholder dryland farmers in these sub-Saharan African countries. In contrast to previous efforts, the current study directly integrates the uncertainties in estimations of income changes and secondary consequences through a weighting scheme. The results reveal moderate to high levels of secondary impacts which could lead to increased vulnerability to diseases, susceptibility to nutritional disorders, deprivation of educational opportunities, and ultimately to a reduction in human and societal development potential among the considered nations. The article concludes by proposing a portfolio of policy options for ameliorating the secondary impacts of climate change in these sub-Saharan African countries.

The low agricultural productivity of key crops and food insecurity continue to be key issues in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Tanzania. The growing population, depleting resources, and changing climate further amplify these issues. Globally, many agricultural technologies (AgTs) are available as pathways for improved agricultural productivity and food security, however, they have had relatively little success in SSA and Tanzania. This is because the uptake of AgTs is a complex process, which is highly localized, involving multiple actors, stages, and spatial and time dimensions. Smallholder farmers often experience issues of sustainability, constraints for adoption, and scaling-up throughout the uptake process of AgTs, all of which vary by region. This indicates a need for a systematic and simultaneous understanding of sustainability, constraints for adoption, and scaling-up of AgTs to better guide agricultural strategy and policy interventions in SSA and Tanzania. Moreover, in order to understand the local settings better, a consideration of the perceptions of the farmers themselves, who are the primary actors in the uptake process of AgTs, is key. Acknowledging this, the study takes on a case study approach, using the scaling-up assessment (ScalA) method and three focus group discussions with a total of 44 smallholder farmers to systematically and simultaneously assess the sustainability, constraints for adoption, and scaling-up of three AgTs (use of fertilizers, improved seeds, and small-scale irrigation) in Tanzania. The study finds that the farmers perceive all three AgTs to be sustainable for the study region. Adoption rates are perceived to be medium for use of fertilizers, high for improved seeds, and low for small-scale irrigation. The most significant constraints for adoption experienced by the farmers are lack of technical physical inputs, marketing facilities, and know-how. Scaling-up is perceived to be well fulfilled for use of fertilizers and improved seeds, but only partially fulfilled for small-scale irrigation, which is the most limited of the three AgTs. The most significant constraints for scaling-up experienced by farmers are a lack of confidence in the added value of the AgTs beyond project activities, marketing facilities, and technical physical inputs. The overall success potential is high for the use of fertilizers and improved seeds, and the average for small-scale irrigation. The farmers&rsquo, perceptions partially indicate why the bundle of AgTs is lacking in the study region and provide a basis for discussing targeted agricultural and policy interventions in Tanzania.

Various measures are adopted by flood-prone households for the mitigation of flood risk along with various post-flood coping strategies. We analyze the role of various ex ante household-level flood mitigation strategies in influencing riverine flood damages. The study also presents an account on the linkages of various ex post coping strategies and flood damages experienced in a flood event in Pakistan. For achieving a uniform flood damage indicator, polychoric principle component analysis (PCA) is employed to construct a composite flood damage index considering various aspects of economic, social, and psychological impacts of a flood event. The adjusted flood damage index is regressed on various socioeconomic features and ex ante mitigation actions to know their effect on the former. Results indicate that distance from river, elevating house, and pre-shifting investigating about flooding problem help in significantly reducing the overall flood damages. Likewise, group-based actions like voting political candidates based on their flood-control promises, organizing grass-root group meetings, and raising voices through memos/petitions are found to significantly reduce flood-related damages while leaving house premises before flooding is found to increase the overall flood damage. Post-flood coping strategies comprise of social and financial support along with some livelihood diversification and disinvestment strategies such as selling livestock, jewelry, and withdrawing children from schools. Borrowing money, reducing food consumption, and agricultural diversification are more prevalent strategies among low and medium damage groups while consuming savings is more conspicuous among high damage group. The study concludes with the emphasis on policy interventions for effective early warning, location-specific flood intensity information, and proper streamlining of planning process and compensation system.

Since 2007, a range of new modeling approaches and tools have been developed for sustainability impact assessment (SIA), but a lack of universal acceptance of SIA tools in applied policy making is observed. The current article gives an overview of experiences from several European and international projects, critically reviews the selected SIA tools and then discusses a number of reasons for the observed disconnect of the tools with the potential users. Largely based on the experiences of the presented SIA tools focusing land use policy advice, a decision tree is designed, which may facilitate an adequate, region and developmental phase specific selection of tool-box components for the development of SIA tools in future. Elements to ensure end-user participation are also integrated in the decision tree in order to increase the likelihood of the tool in applied land use policy advice. In addition, the Challenges in SIA tool development and use are further discussed.

South Asia faces increasing flooding risks due to climatic and socio-economic changes. Various measures have been adopted by the governments of the countries in this region. However, these measures are not adequate to protect the vulnerable communities from ever-increasing flood losses. This study assesses the policy and planning processes and flood-related scientific research in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Based on a systematic review, a comparison of the existing flood management systems of the three countries is undertaken, and a framework for sustainable flood management in the region is suggested. Insights from the literature show that Bangladesh has been able to develop an effective governance structure to address flood hazards, while Pakistan’s approach to flood management planning is found to be largely inadequate. This inadequacy is mainly attributed to missing links in policy formulation and planning processes, along with a lack of institutional coordination. The results of the literature an...

The article describes the land use system transition dynamics in selected states in India and discusses its underlying biodiversity impacts and economic driving forces. The concept of system transition is described as a continuum between forests and highly intensive agriculture via different grades of intensification where profit differential is identified as the system transition pressure. In order to operationalise the concept, the article develops land use suitability, input use intensity and farming system diversity indices which are calculated for different agricultural cropping systems in the selected states of India. The results show the apparent decline in land use suitability, reduction in farming system diversity, increase of cultivation intensity, reflecting a reduction in planned and associated agro-biodiversity. The results also show increasing transition pressure to shift from low intensive and high diverse systems to high intensive low diverse systems that represent increasing opportunity cost of conservation of the former systems. A set of policy measures to deflate the transition pressure that can at least retain a threshold of traditional high diversity systems are briefly discussed. The study also outlines further research directions.

Given the projected climatic changes, building resilient agricultural systems is of vital significance in protecting vulnerable agrarian communities in sub-Saharan Africa. Under this scenario, the article attempts to identify a set of resilience-building adaptive strategies (intensification, diversification, alteration, migration, etc.) among farmers in Morogoro, Tanzania, and crafts a composite index of these strategies using a principal component analysis-based weighting scheme. The analysis also reveals the latent structure and internal correlations of actions intended to build resilience of the farming systems. Subsequently, the linkages of livelihood resources (natural, human, social and financial capitals) to the resilience-building strategies are examined. A multiple regression analysis is employed to link the composite index to variables representing the four capitals. The results bring quantitative evidence to the linkages and highlight the need of enhancing livelihood resources to enhance the ability to undertake adaptive strategies that denotes the ability to withstand stresses and shocks from climatic changes. Actions to improve human capital (awareness campaigns on climate change impacts as well as possible adaptive strategies), social capital (strengthening social networks, improving tenure security), financial capital (increasing credit availability) and natural capital (measures to enhance agricultural potential, support for adaptive action in areas with low agricultural potential) are needed in order to impart resilience to the farming systems against the changing climate.

Pakistan has become a poster child for extreme weather events such as floods and droughts in recent years. The frequency and severity of these events are expected to increase in the future due to predicted climatic changes. This scenario suggests the likelihood of increased crop damage in flood- or drought-prone areas, and hence the need for risk-reducing mechanisms. This paper attempts to determine whether crop insurance is an acceptable tool against flood and drought events in rural Pakistan. It also analyses the factors influencing a farmer's willingness to pay insurance premiums. In a rural farm-household survey, farmers were asked about their willingness to pay for a hypothetical crop insurance programme employing a “double-bounded dichotomous contingent valuation method”. The results revealed that around 30% of the respondents accepted the idea of crop insurance as a tool to reduce and mitigate the financial risks associated with floods and droughts. Our findings suggest that the frequency and sever...

In Germany, Farm Management Systems (FMS) have been introduced as a support to farmers' compliance with environmental and other regulations, aiming at the increase of farm level performance and sustainable farming practices. Different kinds of FMS were developed and promulgated with various approaches, determined by each federal state's agricultural advisory system. Knowledge on the FMS' uptake and effectiveness has been lacking so far. The overall aim of this paper is to provide an analysis of the implementation process and selected outcomes of the policy-driven instrumental innovation of FMS. In particular, the objectives are i) to reveal how and with what success the introduction of FMS has been realised in Germany and ii) to analyse and discuss the FMS' adoption in the federal state of Brandenburg. For the first part of the study, we elaborate a situational analysis of the policy implementation through a desk study and expert interviews. In the second part, selected results from a farmers' survey in Brandenburg are presented and a switching regression model is developed to assess the factors responsible for the uptake of FMS and to understand the role of FMS in improving the confidence in complying with Cross Compliance regulations. We found a high degree of diversity among FMS developed in the different federal states. FMS adoption rates varied, but were generally low. Institutional environment seems to have a significant influence as the same FMS had very different adoption rates among federal states. For Brandenburg, our findings show that farmers' confidence to face CC check was increased by the adoption of FMS. However, counterfactual scenario analysis proved that especially farmers who did not adopt FMS would have benefitted most if they had adopted the tool. Our study shows that there is a need for systems supporting farmers in dealing with bureaucratic requirements. Future FMS should be easy to understand, adaptable to individual farmers' needs and be available at low costs. Furthermore, there is a need to design FMS in a participatory way that integrates farmers' expectations.

The present study aims at unraveling the acceptability and potential of flood insurance as a viable mechanism to cope the financial risk associated with flood events in rural Pakistan. Moreover, the factors influencing rural households’ willingness to pay for flood insurance are also analyzed. Currently, the country faces an increasing rate of flooding due to climate change phenomenon resulting in abnormal monsoonal cycles and the melting of Himalayan glaciers in the region. The current flood management strategy of the country mainly involves ex-post relief and rehabilitation programs along with financial transfers to the flood victims from public funds without the involvement of private insurance companies. This puts enormous pressure on the public exchequer, leading to budgetary adjustments and tax escalation. Under such a scenario, flood insurance is thought to be a viable alternative to mitigate the financial risk associated with the catastrophic events like the flood that occurred in 2010. The study utilized primary level data from five districts in Pakistan to evaluate the willingness to pay for flood insurance as well as the factors affecting that willingness by using contingent valuation methodology. The results show that the acceptability of this intervention among flood victims depends on a multitude of factors such as the age of the household head, landownership, off-farm income sources and a preconception concerning the effectiveness of flood insurance. Moreover, rural families’ readiness to pay an insurance premium is not significantly influenced by perceived risk of flooding but by their financial position.

This article aims to unravel the reasons behind the dichotomy in carbon dioxide emissions in India; that is, a high level of aggregate emissions, on the one hand, and, on the other, lower per capita emissions that cannot simply be explained by large population size. Firstly, the article analyses in detail the various factors that lead to larger aggregate emissions. In the case of electricity use, which is a major source of emissions, the role of factors on both the demand and supply sides are analysed. Also, the factors that influence emissions related to petroleum consumption are then reviewed. In contrast to previous studies, this article examines in detail the features that allow the low per capita emission level in India. This set of features includes the rural–urban divide, the spatial divide in energy-based emissions, poverty and energy access, lifestyle, societal organization, dependence on biomass, informal recycling, etc. This article concludes that inefficiencies in energy conversion, transition...

Assessing the impact of macro-level policy driven land use changes on regional sustainability is an important task that can facilitate complex decision making processes of introducing reforms. The research work demonstrates the ability of Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT), a meta-model, in conducting ex ante spatially explicit cross sectoral impact assessments of changes in common agricultural policy (CAP). The meta-model is able to appraise impacts of CAP amendments on land use and their repercussions on multiple indicators of sustainability. The presented study comprehensively analyses the possible impacts of discontinuing direct financial support to farmers under CAP. The simulations of the meta-model are able to reveal the land use changes both at EU and regional levels as well as to bring forth the subsequent changes in a number of indicators representing the regional sustainability (for five case study regions). In a nutshell, the simulations indicate that a reduction in direct support brings in general, a decrease in farmed area, an increase in forested land, less fluctuation in natural vegetation coverage, increase in abandoned arable land area and negligible changes in built-up area despite regionally diverging land use trends. The simulated changes in sustainability indicators for the study regions in consequence to these land use changes show that the discontinuation of subsidies evokes responses that are in general climate friendly (reduction in methane and N2O emissions, diminishing energy use and reduction in global warming potential), economically beneficial (increase in gross value of agriculture) and socially desired (decrease in unemployment rate) as well as environmentally harmful (increase in pesticide use). Even though the appraisals of diversity indicators such as forest deadwood and farmland birds are not conclusive for all regions, the changes are positive for the former indicator and slightly negative for the latter in general. The trade-offs among these regional sustainability indicators using their directional associations are also presented for a comprehensive assessment of the impacts., JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Economy

This article analyzes agricultural sustainability in the context of land degradation, rural poverty and social inequality, taking China’s Loess Hills as an example. The analysis attempts to understand the multi-dimensionality of sustainability at the farm level and its relationship with physical-socio-economic-infrastructural-technological framework conditions in the context of the land set-aside program viz. the Grain for Green Project (GGP). We developed composite indices of sustainability and its environmental, economic and social dimensions using a principal component analysis (PCA)-based weighting scheme. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between the estimated sustainability indicators and the variables representing framework conditions of knowledge, demographics, resource endowment and production techniques. The stated analysis was conducted on a dataset collected by means of household surveys in 2014 in valleys and flood plain areas in Yanhe Township. Findings reveal hidden correlations among the indicators of environmental, economic, and social pillars of sustainability. The ratio of land under the conservation program to actual farmland emerged as a key determinant of overall agricultural sustainability and its social dimension, which reaches the maximum when the ratio is around 0.56 and 0.64, respectively. The results also show that there is need to balance off-farm and on-farm income diversification as well as highlight the role of women in ensuring the sustainability of farming households. The core achievement of the article is the definition of the thresholds for the land set-aside program and the identification of major determinants of agricultural sustainability in the rural Chinese context in particular and in rural farming communities in general.

Growing populations, changing market conditions, and the food security risks posed by rainfed cropping and climate change collectively indicate that Sub-Saharan African nations could benefit from transforming agricultural production to more intensive yet resilient and sustainable systems. Although highly underutilized, emerging evidence indicates that groundwater may be more widely available than previously thought, highlighting its potential role in facilitating such a transformation. Nevertheless, the possibility for such a transition is conditioned by number of complex factors. We therefore construct a transition index that integrates data considering groundwater and energy availability and cost, market access, infrastructural needs, farm conditions and natural resource stocks, labor availability, climate, population density, as well as economic and political framework variables, using a principal component analysis based methodology. Using the consequent multi-dimensional transition index and constituent intermediate indices, we provide an assessment of groundwater irrigation potential discussed in consideration of Burkina Faso, Ghana, Malawi, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Zambia, Namibia, Cameroon, and Zimbabwe. Our results, though preliminary, provide a methodology for conducting such an integrated assessment, while deriving a holistic set of policy options considering the transition towards appropriate use of groundwater for agricultural development.

International audience; AbstractSustainable development of agriculture is at the core of agricultural policy debates in Europe. There is a consensus that diversification of cropping would support sustainable development. However, a reduction in legume cultivation has been observed in the EU during the last decades. This decline has induced, in turn, a deficit of proteins and a reduction of ecosystem services provided by legumes. Therefore, we analysed the mechanisms that shape agricultural systems to identify leverage points for reviving European legume production. Specifically, we reviewed the factors that affect the market and non-market value of legumes and the relevant agricultural policies. We characterized the decline in legume cropping as an outcome of the dominance of economic forces that favour specialization of production systems over diversification. We found that the value of market outputs of legumes per unit area is relatively low and volatile, with a 25–78 % variation in pea gross margins, which reduces market competitiveness. We observed that the value of system-internal outputs of legumes such as the nitrogen fixed, of 130 to 153 kg N ha−1; crop protection services that reduce agrochemical costs, by 20–25 % in cereals; and yield enhancements of subsequent crops, of 0.2 to 1.6 t ha−1 in cereals, are often underestimated. In addition, markets fail to translate external effects of legumes such as biodiversity enhancement, reduction in emissions, of up to 50 % in N2O, and soil improvements into economic benefits. Current policies support legumes through selected mechanisms such as ecological focus areas, agri-environmental programmes and sparse coupled support measures. Domestic cultivation of legumes could be supported through trade policies such as import restrictions on genetically modified soybean or new mechanisms to appreciate non-market outputs including payments for ecosystem services and carbon markets. In addition, development of new value chains, niche markets, scaling-up of plant breeding efforts and dissemination of information is required.

Current global climate policy architecture does not aim at stabilizing the greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere that may achieve the proclaimed 2 °C guard rail. An alternative approach that targets on limiting the global cumulative emission to accomplish such an outcome is put forward by German Advisory Board of Global Change (WBGU). This research work further elaborates the approach and its flexibility instrument i.e. carbon trading. As the approach visualises sharing of the carbon budget (750Gt CO 2 ) equally to every human being (2.7 t CO 2 per capita), India is the country with largest tradable surplus reflecting its low emission per capita and large population. The research work further analyzes the emission profile of rural India and the significance of its future emission pathways within the proposed framework. It also shows how low carbon development in India can assist in cost effective decarbonization of industrialized countries and mitigation of climate change, given a global climate treaty based on the WBGU approach.

The global climate pattern has been changing fast and observational evidence indicates that high carbon emissions and climate changes in the 20th century have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems (IPCC 2001; IPCC 2007a, b).

The aim of this paper is to provide a critical analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of a nonstandardised Model Requirements Analysis (MRA) used for the purpose of developing the Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT). By ‘non-standardised’ we mean not strictly following a published MRA method. The underlying question we are interested in addressing is how non-standardised methods, often employed in research driven projects, compare to defined methods with more standardised structure, with regards their ability to capture model requirements effectively, and with regards their overall usability. Through describing and critically assessing the specific features of the nonstandardised MRA employed, the ambition of this paper is to provide insights useful for impact assessment tool (IAT) development. Specifically, the paper will (i) characterise kinds of user requirements relevant to the functionality and design of IATs; (ii) highlight the strengths and weaknesses of nonstandardised MRA for user requirements capture, analysis and reflection in the context of IAT; (iii) critically reflect on the process and outcomes of having used a non-standardised MRA in comparison with other more standardised approaches. To accomplish these aims, we first review methods available for IAT development before describing the SIAT development process, including the MRA employed. Major strengths and weaknesses of the MRA method are then discussed in terms of user identification and characterisation, organisational characterisation and embedding, and ability to capture design options for ensuring usability and usefulness. A detailed assessment on the structural differences of MRA with two advanced approaches (Integrated DSS design and goal directed design) and their role in performance of the MRA tool is used to critique the approach employed. The results show that MRA is able to bring thematic integration, establish system performance and technical thresholds as well as detailing quality and transparency guidelines. Nevertheless the discussion points out to a number of deficiencies in application - (i) a need to more effectively characterise potential users, and; (ii) a need to better foster communication among the distinguished roles in the development process. If addressed these deficiencies, SIAT non-standardised MRA could have brought out better outcomes in terms of tool usability and usefulness, and improved embedding of the tool into conditions of targeted end-users., JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Economy

The discussion on the use of Genetically Modified (GM) crops has become a tedious issue. It seems that an amicable settlement of the conflicts between those who object the use of GM crops and want a general ban (more or less) on modification of plant and animal genetic resources on the one side, and those who want to have a generic permit for the application of genetic modifications (to authorize their experiments with nature) on the other side, remains to be a mirage. The conflict is also about the aims of agrobiotechnology as well as the distribution of its costs and benefits. This article seeks to advance towards a solution by suggesting that a property rights assignment may help to realize an agreement that is less risky than the current status quo. We outline a bargaining model referring to government regulations on property rights, which shall encourage mutually respected private agreements for industry and farming. It can be an explicit right to pursue commercial biotechnology or an explicit right to be protected from the exposure to commercial GM crops Specifically we aim at designating interests in a rights exchange to settle the conflict. It is the objective of this contribution (1) to analyze the exchange of rights in a political economy viewpoint instead of proposing a market solution (Harsanyi/Zusman). (2) It attempts to outline the stakeholders’ interests and to specify externalities of uncertain effects of GM crops. (3) The article refers to a compromise which could be built on reciprocity where risk is the common denominator. The compromise requires an understanding beyond the exchange of technical details and involves a political bargaining process to find “better” solutions as well as commitments. Solutions are defined as reduced risks from GM crops given current status of a most likely inevitable spread of GM crops.