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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.

A purposely built deep learning algorithm for the Verification of Earth System ParametERization (VESPER) is used to assess recent upgrades to the global physiographic datasets underpinning the quality of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which is used in both numerical weather prediction and climate reanalyses. A neural network regression model is trained to learn the mapping between the surface physiographic dataset, plus the main meteorologic fields from ERA5, and the MODIS satellite skin temperature observations. Once trained, this tool is applied to rapidly assess the quality of upgrades to the physiographic fields used by land surface schemes. Upgrades which improve the prediction accuracy of the machine learning tool indicate a reduction in the errors in the surface fields used as input to the surface parameterization schemes. Conversely, incorrect specifications of the surface fields decrease the accuracy with which VESPER can make predictions. We apply VESPER to assess the accuracy of recent upgrades to the permanent lake and glacier covers, as well as of planned upgrades to represent seasonally varying water bodies (i.e. ephemeral lakes). We show that, for grid cells where the lake fields have been updated, the prediction accuracy of VESPER in the land surface temperature (as quantified by the mean absolute error) improves by 0.37 K on average, whilst for the subset of points where the lakes have been completely removed and replaced with bare ground, the improvement is 0.83 K. We also show that updates to the glacier cover improve the prediction accuracy by 0.22 K. We highlight how neural networks such as VESPER can assist the research and development of surface parameterizations and their input physiography to better represent Earth’s surface coupled processes in weather and climate models.

The Met Office operational wave forecasting modelling system runs four times a day to provide global and regional forecasts up to 7 d ahead. The underpinning model uses a recent development branch of the third-generation spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III® (version 7.12) that includes several updates developed at the Met Office. These include the spherical multiple-cell (SMC) grid, a rotated pole grid formulation for mid-latitudes, enhancements to OASIS coupling and updates to the netCDF postprocessing. Here we document the technical details behind the system with a view to further developments. The operational system includes a global forecast deterministic model (GS512L4EUK) and two regional models nested one-way covering the Northwest (NW) European shelf and UK waters (AMM15SL2, where AMM is for Atlantic Margin model) in addition to an Atlantic wave ensemble (AS512L4EUK). GS512L4EUK and AS512L4EUK are based on a multi-resolution four-tier SMC 25-12-6-3 km grid. The regional AMM15SL2 configuration uses a two-tier SMC 3−1.5 km grid and is run operationally both as a standalone forced model (includes wave–current interactions) and as the wave component of a two-way ocean–wave coupled operational system. Model evaluation is focused on the global and regional baseline configurations. Results show evidence of resolution-dependent differences in wave growth, leading to slightly overestimated significant wave heights in coastal mid-range conditions by AMM15SL2 but an improved representation of extremes compared to GS512L4EUK. Additionally, although a positive impact of the surface currents is not always shown in the overall statistics of the significant wave height due to a larger spread in the observation–model differences, wave–current effects help to better capture the distribution of the energy in terms of frequency and direction near the coast (>20 % improvement), which has implications to beach safety, coastal overtopping risk and shoreline evolution. Future system developments such as the use of sea point wind forcing, the optimisation of the models in line with model resolution and the utilisation of SMC multi-grids are discussed.

Stochastic forcing can, sometimes, stabilise atmospheric regime dynamics, increasing their persistence. This counter-intuitive effect has been observed in geophysical models of varying complexity, and here we investigate the mechanisms underlying stochastic regime dynamics in a conceptual model. We use a six-mode truncation of a barotropic β-plane model, featuring transitions between analogues of zonal and blocked flow conditions, and identify mechanisms similar to those seen previously in work on low-dimensional random maps. Namely, we show that a geometric mechanism, here relating to monotonic instability growth, allows for asymmetric action of symmetric perturbations on regime lifetime and that random scattering can “trap” the flow in more stable regions of phase space. We comment on the implications for understanding more complex atmospheric systems.

This article discusses some critical underlying factors that facilitate mental health concerns for Black males in higher education. This article also focuses on the role that student affairs practitioners and faculty can play in supporting Black males on college campuses with mental health needs. This article concludes with recommendations and critical research to further research and practice.

In this article, we discuss major themes on Black males' mental health that have emerged from this monograph. We will also discuss and emphasize how various institutional agents such as student affairs practitioners, faculty, and administrators can use this information to better support Black males in higher education. Finally, we will also discuss implications for future research in student services.

Operational ocean forecasts are typically produced by modelling systems run using a forced mode approach. The evolution of the ocean state is not directly influenced by surface waves, and the ocean dynamics are driven by an external source of meteorological data which are independent of the ocean state. Model coupling provides one approach to increase the extent to which ocean forecast systems can represent the interactions and feedbacks between ocean, waves, and the atmosphere seen in nature. This paper demonstrates the impact of improving how the effect of waves on the momentum exchange across the ocean–atmosphere interface is represented through ocean–wave coupling on the performance of an operational regional ocean prediction system. This study focuses on the eddy-resolving (1.5 km resolution) Atlantic Margin Model (AMM15) ocean model configuration for the north-west European Shelf (NWS) region. A series of 2-year duration forecast trials of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) north-west European Shelf regional ocean prediction system are analysed. The impact of including ocean–wave feedbacks via dynamic coupling on the simulated ocean is discussed. The main interactions included are the modification of surface stress by wave growth and dissipation, Stokes–Coriolis forcing, and wave-height-dependent ocean surface roughness. Given the relevance to operational forecasting, trials with and without ocean data assimilation are considered. Summary forecast metrics demonstrate that the ocean–wave coupled system is a viable evolution for future operational implementation. When results are considered in more depth, wave coupling was found to result in an annual cycle of relatively warmer winter and cooler summer sea surface temperatures for seasonally stratified regions of the NWS. This is driven by enhanced mixing due to waves, and a deepening of the ocean mixed layer during summer. The impact of wave coupling is shown to be reduced within the mixed layer with assimilation of ocean observations. Evaluation of salinity and ocean currents against profile measurements in the German Bight demonstrates improved simulation with wave coupling relative to control simulations. Further, evidence is provided of improvement to simulation of extremes of sea surface height anomalies relative to coastal tide gauges.

This paper describes an updated configuration of the regional coupled research system, termed UKC3, developed and evaluated under the UK Environmental Prediction collaboration. This represents a further step towards a vision of simulating the numerous interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land using more integrated regional coupled prediction systems at kilometre-scale resolution. The UKC3 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean surface waves (WAVEWATCH III®), coupled together using OASIS3-MCT libraries. The major update introduced since the UKC2 configuration is an explicit representation of wave–ocean feedbacks through introduction of wave-to-ocean coupling. Ocean model results demonstrate that wave coupling, in particular representing the wave-modified surface drag, has a small but positive improvement on the agreement between simulated sea surface temperatures and in situ observations, relative to simulations without wave feedbacks. Other incremental developments to the coupled modelling capability introduced since the UKC2 configuration are also detailed. Coupled regional prediction systems are of interest for applications across a range of timescales, from hours to decades ahead. The first results from four simulation experiments, each of the order of 1 month in duration, are analysed and discussed in the context of characterizing the potential benefits of coupled prediction on forecast skill. Results across atmosphere, ocean and wave components are shown to be stable over time periods of weeks. The coupled approach shows notable improvements in surface temperature, wave state (in near-coastal regions) and wind speed over the sea, whereas the prediction quality of other quantities shows no significant improvement or degradation relative to the equivalent uncoupled control simulations.

It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere–land–ocean–wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed.

The question of violence in John’s Apocalypse is a perennial issue producing numerous treatments with a variety of solutions. Nevertheless, very few of the many treatments seriously engage the combat myths of the ANE and how they may relate to the issue of violence in the Apocalypse. This lack of engagement is surprising given that the Apocalypse seems to draw from the plot elements, characters, and overarching concerns common to combat myths. This essay aims to rectify this by situating the Apocalypse within the combat myth tradition. When one does this, I argue that John’s use of the mythic pattern furnished by combat myths renders the violence of the Apocalypse intelligible while at the same time undermining the violent imagery with strategic departures and alterations.

Proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibits the clearance of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (LDL-C) from plasma by directly binding with the LDL receptor (LDLR) and sending the receptor for lysosomal degradation. As the interaction promotes elevated plasma LDL-C levels, and therefore a predisposition to cardiovascular disease, PCSK9 has attracted intense interest as a therapeutic target. Despite this interest, an orally bioavailable small-molecule inhibitor of PCSK9 with extensive lipid-lowering activity is yet to enter the clinic. We report herein the discovery of NYX-PCSK9i, an orally bioavailable small-molecule inhibitor of PCSK9 with significant cholesterol-lowering activity in hyperlipidemic APOE∗3-Leiden.CETP mice. NYX-PCSK9i emerged from a medicinal chemistry campaign demonstrating potent disruption of the PCSK9-LDLR interaction in vitro and functional protection of the LDLR of human lymphocytes from PCSK9-directed degradation ex vivo. APOE∗3-Leiden.CETP mice orally treated with NYX-PCSK9i demonstrated a dose-dependent decrease in plasma total cholesterol of up to 57%, while its combination with atorvastatin additively suppressed plasma total cholesterol levels. Importantly, the majority of cholesterol lowering by NYX-PCSK9i was in non-HDL fractions. A concomitant increase in total plasma PCSK9 levels and significant increase in hepatic LDLR protein expression strongly indicated on-target function by NYX-PCSK9i. Determinations of hepatic lipid and fecal cholesterol content demonstrated depletion of liver cholesteryl esters and promotion of fecal cholesterol elimination with NYX-PCSK9i treatment. All measured in vivo biomarkers of health indicate that NYX-PCSK9i has a good safety profile. NYX-PCSK9i is a potential new therapy for hypercholesterolemia with the capacity to further enhance the lipid-lowering activities of statins.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to characterize the descriptive epidemiology of insomnia in midlife and explore the relative importance of different occupational risk factors for insomnia among older workers. METHODS: A questionnaire was mailed to all adults aged 50–64 years registered with 24 English general practices. Insomnia was defined as having at least one of four problems with sleep severely in the past three months. Subjects were also asked about employment conditions, feelings concerning work, and their health. Associations were assessed by logistic regression and population attributable fractions (PAF) calculated. RESULTS: Analysis was based on 8067 respondents (5470 in paid work), 18.8% of whom reported insomnia. It was more common among women, smokers, obese individuals, those living alone, and those in financial hardship, and less prevalent among the educated, those in South-East England, and those with friendships and leisure-time pursuits. Occupational risk factors included unemployment, shift working, lack of control and support at work, job insecurity, job dissatisfaction and several of its determinants (lacking a sense of achievement, feeling unappreciated, having difficult work colleagues, feeling unfairly criticized). Population burden of insomnia was associated more strongly with difficulties in coping with work demands, job insecurity, difficult colleagues, and lack of friendships at work [population attributable fraction (PAF) 15–33%] than shift work and lack of autonomy or support (PAF 5–7%). It was strongly associated with seven measures of poorer self-assessed health. CONCLUSIONS: Employment policies aimed at tackling insomnia among older workers may benefit from focusing particularly on job–person fit, job security and relationships in the workplace.