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A hybrid regressiontime series modelling was used to relate the total daily punctuality TOTP at Frankfurt Airport, Germany, to weather, the traffic flow and the airport system state. The selected modelling approach is applied to the annual, the multiannual and seasonal data of the years 2001–2006. Reduction of the initial variables system dimension is achieved through the application of the principal component analysis PCA method. The portion of the variability that can be explained by the model after correction of autocorrelations in the residuals using autoregressive AR models, is between 60 and 69. A slight yeartoyear variability in the number of statistically significant model parameters is detected. Upon identification of the terminalspecific delay impact factors, the possibility of the 24 h punctuality forecast for the interval of 1 year was discussed. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reviews and synthesises existing information generated within the SCOPSCO (Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid) deep drilling project. The four main aims of the project are to infer (i) the age and origin of Lake Ohrid (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia/Republic of Albania), (ii) its regional seismotectonic history, (iii) volcanic activity and climate change in the central northern Mediterranean region, and (iv) the influence of major geological events on the evolution of its endemic species. The Ohrid basin formed by transtension during the Miocene, opened during the Pliocene and Pleistocene, and the lake established de novo in the still relatively narrow valley between 1.9 and 1.3 Ma. The lake history is recorded in a 584 m long sediment sequence, which was recovered within the framework of the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) from the central part (DEEP site) of the lake in spring 2013. To date, 54 tephra and cryptotephra horizons have been found in the upper 460 m of this sequence. Tephrochronology and tuning biogeochemical proxy data to orbital parameters revealed that the upper 247.8 m represent the last 637 kyr. The multi-proxy data set covering these 637 kyr indicates long-term variability. Some proxies show a change from generally cooler and wetter to drier and warmer glacial and interglacial periods around 300 ka. Short-term environmental change caused, for example, by tephra deposition or the climatic impact of millennial-scale Dansgaard–Oeschger and Heinrich events are superimposed on the long-term trends. Evolutionary studies on the extant fauna indicate that Lake Ohrid was not a refugial area for regional freshwater animals. This differs from the surrounding catchment, where the mountainous setting with relatively high water availability provided a refuge for temperate and montane trees during the relatively cold and dry glacial periods. Although Lake Ohrid experienced significant environmental change over the last 637 kyr, preliminary molecular data from extant microgastropod species do not indicate significant changes in diversification rate during this period. The reasons for this constant rate remain largely unknown, but a possible lack of environmentally induced extinction events in Lake Ohrid and/or the high resilience of the ecosystems may have played a role.

The Balkan Lake Ohrid is the oldest and most diverse freshwater lacustrine system in Europe. However, it remains unclear whether species community composition, as well as the diversification of its endemic taxa, is mainly driven by dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, or species interaction. This calls for a holistic perspective involving both evolutionary processes and ecological dynamics, as provided by the unifying framework of the “metacommunity speciation model”.The current study used the species-rich model taxon Gastropoda to assess how extant communities in Lake Ohrid are structured by performing process-based metacommunity analyses. Specifically, the study aimed (1) to identifying the relative importance of the three community assembly processes and (2) to test whether the importance of these individual processes changes gradually with lake depth or discontinuously with eco-zone shifts.Based on automated eco-zone detection and process-specific simulation steps, we demonstrated that dispersal limitation had the strongest influence on gastropod community composition. However, it was not the exclusive assembly process, but acted together with the other two processes – environmental filtering and species interaction. The relative importance of the community assembly processes varied both with lake depth and eco-zones, though the processes were better predicted by the latter.This suggests that environmental characteristics have a pronounced effect on shaping gastropod communities via assembly processes. Moreover, the study corroborated the high importance of dispersal limitation for both maintaining species richness in Lake Ohrid (through its impact on community composition) and generating endemic biodiversity (via its influence on diversification processes). However, according to the metacommunity speciation model, the inferred importance of environmental filtering and biotic interaction also suggests a small but significant influence of ecological speciation. These findings contribute to the main goal of the Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid (SCOPSCO) deep drilling initiative – inferring the drivers of biotic evolution – and might provide an integrative perspective on biological and limnological dynamics in ancient Lake Ohrid.

Ancient lakes, such as lakes Ohrid and Prespa on the Balkan Peninsula, have become model systems for studying the link between geological and biotic evolution. Recently, the scientific deep-drilling project Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid (SCOPSCO) was initiated to better understand the environmental, climatic, and limnological evolution of the lake. It revealed that Lake Ohrid experienced a number of environmental disturbances during its ca. 2.0 million year long history. These are comprised of disturbances that lasted over longer periods of time (“press events”) such as glacial–interglacial cycles and Heinrich events, as well as sudden and short disturbances (“pulse events”) like the deposition of landslides, earthquakes, and volcanic ash depositions. The latter includes one of the most severe volcanic episodes during the Late Pleistocene: the eruption of the Campanian Ignimbrite (known as Y-5 marine tephra layer) from the Campi Flegrei caldera, dated to 39.6 ± 0.1 thousand years ago. The event is recorded by the deposition of a ca. 15 cm thick tephra layer in sediment cores of lakes Ohrid (DEEP-5045-1) and Prespa (Co1204). Coincidently, this pulse event is superimposed by the Heinrich H4 event, 40.4–38.4 thousand years ago. In the current paper, diatoms were used as proxies to compare the responses of these lakes to the Y-5 (pulse) and the H4 (press) disturbances. Based on stratigraphically constrained incremental sum of squares cluster (CONISS) and unconstrained Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) analyses, we found little evidence that diatom community compositions in either lake responded to the H4 event. However, the Y-5 influx caused clear and rapid diatom community changes. After the initial response, community compositions in Lake Ohrid and, to a lesser extent, in Lake Prespa slowly returned to their quasi pre-disturbance state. Moreover, there is no evidence for disturbance-related extinction events. The combined evidence from these findings suggests that lakes Ohrid and Prespa likely did not experience regime shifts. It is therefore concluded that both lakes show resilience to environmental disturbance. However, it seems that Lake Ohrid is more resilient than Lake Prespa, as the recovery of diatom communities is more pronounced and its estimated recovery time is only ca. 1100 years vs. ca. 4000 years in Lake Prespa. The reasons for the differential responses remain largely unknown, but differences in geology, lake age, limnology, and intrinsic parameters of the diatom proxies may play an important role.

Ancient lakes represent key ecosystems for endemic freshwater species. This high endemic biodiversity has been shown to be mainly the result of intra-lacustrine diversification. Whereas the principle role of this mode of diversification is generally acknowledged, actual diversification rates in ancient lakes remain little understood. At least four types are conceivable. Diversification rates may be constant over time, they may fluctuate, rates may be higher in the initial phase of diversification, or there may be a pronounced lag phase between colonization and subsequent diversification. As understanding the tempo of diversification in ancient lake environments may help reveal the underlying processes that drive speciation and extinction, we here use the Balkan Lake Ohrid as a model system and the largest species flock in the lake, the non-pyrgulinid Hydrobiidae, as a model taxon to study changes in diversification rates over time together with the respective drivers. Based on phylogenetic, molecular-clock, lineage-through-time plot, and diversification-rate analyses we found that this potentially monophyletic group is comparatively old and that it most likely evolved with a constant diversification rate. Preliminary data of the SCOPSCO (Scientific Collaboration On Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid) deep-drilling program do indicate signatures of severe environmental/climatic perturbations in Lake Ohrid. However, so far there is no evidence for the occurrence of catastrophic environmental events. We therefore propose that the constant diversification rate observed in endemic gastropods has been caused by two factors: (i) a potential lack of catastrophic environmental events in Lake Ohrid and/or (ii) a probably high ecosystem resilience, buffering environmental changes. Parameters potentially contributing to the lake's high ecosystem resilience are its distinct bathymetry, ongoing tectonic activities, and karst hydrology. The current study not only contributes to one of the overall goals of the SCOPSCO deep-drilling program – inferring the driving forces for biotic evolution in Lake Ohrid. It might also enhance our understanding of how ecosystem resilience, in general, may promote relatively constant diversification rates in isolated ecosystems. However, we encourage future studies testing hypotheses about the lack of catastrophic events in Lake Ohrid. These studies should be based on high-resolution data for the entire geological history of the lake, and they should potentially involve information from the sediment fossil record, not only for gastropods but also for other groups with a high share of endemic taxa.

The quality of spatial analyses of biodiversity is improved by (i) utilizing study areas with well defined physiogeographical boundaries, (ii) limiting the impact of widespread species, and (iii) using taxa with heterogeneous distributions. These conditions are typically met by ecosystems such as oceanic islands or ancient lakes and their biota. While research on ancient lakes has contributed significantly to our understanding of evolutionary processes, statistically sound studies of spatial variation of extant biodiversity have been hampered by the frequently vast size of ancient lakes, their limited accessibility, and the lack of scientific infrastructure. The European ancient Lake Ohrid provides a rare opportunity for such a reliable spatial study. The comprehensive horizontal and vertical sampling of a species-rich taxon, the Gastropoda, presented here, revealed interesting patterns of biodiversity, which, in part, have not been shown before for other ancient lakes. In a total of 284 samples from 224 different locations throughout the Ohrid Basin, 68 gastropod species, with 50 of them (= 73.5%) being endemic, could be reported. The spatial distribution of these species shows the following characteristics: (i) within Lake Ohrid, the most frequent species are endemic taxa with a wide depth range, (ii) widespread species (i.e. those occurring throughout the Balkans or beyond) are rare and mainly occur in the upper layer of the lake, (iii) while the total number of species decreases with water depth, the proportion of endemics increases, and (iv) the deeper layers of Lake Ohrid appear to have a higher spatial homogeneity of biodiversity. Moreover, gastropod communities of Lake Ohrid and its feeder springs are both distinct from each other and from the surrounding waters. The analysis also shows that community similarity of Lake Ohrid is mainly driven by niche processes (e.g. environmental factors), but also by neutral processes (e.g. dispersal limitation and evolutionary histories of species). For niche-based mechanisms it is shown that large scale effects such as type of water body or water depth are mainly responsible for the similarity of gastropod communities, whereas small scale effects like environmental gradients affect gastropod compositions only marginally. In fact, neutral processes appear to be more important than the small scale environmental factors, thus emphasizing the importance of dispersal capacities and evolutionary histories of species.

Ancient Lake Ohrid is probably of early Pleistocene or Pliocene origin and amongst the few lakes in the world harbouring an outstanding degree of endemic biodiversity. Although there is a long history of evolutionary research in Lake Ohrid, particularly on molluscs, a mollusc fossil record has been missing up to date. For the first time, gastropod and bivalve fossils are reported from the basal, calcareous part of a 2.6 m long sediment succession (core Co1200) from the north-eastern part of Lake Ohrid. Electron spin resonance (ESR) dating of mollusc shells from the same stratigraphic level yielded an age of 130 ± 28 ka. Lithofacies III sediments, i.e. a stratigraphic subdivision comprising the basal succession of core Co1200 between 181.5–263 cm, appeared solid, greyish-white, and consisted almost entirely of silt-sized endogenic calcite (CaCO3>70%) and intact and broken mollusc shells. Here we compare the faunal composition of the thanatocoenosis with recent mollusc associations in Lake Ohrid. A total of 13 mollusc species (9 gastropod and 4 bivalve species) could be identified within Lithofacies III sediments. The value of sediment core fossils for reconstructing palaeoenvironmental settings was evaluated and the agreement between sediment and palaeontological proxies was tested. The study also aims at investigating major faunal changes since the Last Interglacial and searching for signs of extinction events. The combined findings of the ecological study and the sediment characteristics suggest deposition in a shallow water environment during the Last Interglacial. The fossil fauna exclusively included species also found in the present fauna, i.e. no extinction events are evident for this site since the Last Interglacial. The thanatocoenosis showed the highest similarity with recent Intermediate Layer (5–25 m water depth) mollusc assemblages. The demonstrated existence of a mollusc fossil record in Lake Ohrid sediment cores also has great significance for future deep drilling projects. It can be hoped that a more far reaching mollusc fossil record will then be obtained, enabling insight into the early evolutionary history of Lake Ohrid.