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With the publication of the European Green Deal, the European Union has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The envisaged reductions of direct greenhouse gases emissions are seen as technically feasible, but if a wrong path is pursued, significant unintended impacts across borders, sectors, societies and ecosystems may follow. Without the insights gained from an impact assessment framework reaching beyond the techno-economic perspective, the pursuit of direct emission reductions may lead to counterproductive outcomes in the long run. We discuss the opportunities and challenges related to the creation and use of an integrated assessment framework built to inform the European Commission on the path to decarbonisation. The framework is peculiar in that it goes beyond existing ones in its scope, depth and cross-scale coverage, by use of numerous specialised models and case studies. We find challenges of consistency that can be overcome by linking modelling tools iteratively in some cases, harmonising modelling assumptions in others, comparing model outputs in others. We find the highest added value of the framework in additional insights it provides on the technical feasibility of decarbonisation pathways, on vulnerability aspects and on unintended environmental and health impacts on national and sub-national scale., QC 20220831, REEEM

This study provides a comparative assessment of carbon-pricing instruments for the Mexican electricity sector, contrasting a carbon tax with an emissions trading scheme (ETS). The assessment is performed in terms of economic impacts and political feasibility. Model-based scenarios considering different price and quantity levels are analyzed on Balmorel-MX, a cost optimization bottom-up model of the Mexican electricity system. The political feasibility is evaluated using an online survey and interviews with representatives of relevant stakeholder groups. The assessment suggests that an ETS is the most appropriate instrument for the Mexican case. We recommend to set the cap as 31% abatement in relation to a baseline, which is suggested to be 102 MtCO2 by 2030, given the business-as-usual baseline used as reference by the Mexican government (202 MtCO2) is found to leave cost-effective abatement potential untapped. An emission trading system with such design has higher cost-efficiency and lower distributional effects than a carbon tax at equivalent ambition level (15 USD/tCO2). The political feasibility analysis confirms the assessment, as it is in line with the priorities of the stakeholder groups, allows earmarking carbon revenue and avoids exempting natural gas from carbon pricing., Export Date: 22 October 2018; Article; CODEN: ENPYA; Correspondence Address: Pizarro-Alonso, A.; Energy Systems Analysis, Department of Management Engineering, Technical University of DenmarkDenmark; email: aroal@dtu.dk; Funding text: This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Authors would like to thank the Partnership Program between Denmark and Mexico for Energy and Climate Change, the Danish Energy Agency and EA Energy Analyses for introducing the Balmorel model in Mexico. In addition, authors would also like to thank Hans Ravn for the comments regarding Balmorel, and Samuel Cross for his guidance in the initial phases of this research. The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for the valuable feedback provided. Appendix A. QC 20181119

Tropospheric ozone concentrations regarded as harmful for human health are frequently encountered in Central Europe in summertime. Although ozone formation generally results from precursors transported over long distances, in urban areas local effects, such as reactions due to nearby emission sources, play a major role in determining ozone concentrations. Europe-wide mapping and modeling of population exposure to high ozone concentrations is subject to many uncertainties, because small-scale phenomena in urban areas can significantly change ozone levels from those of the surroundings. Currently the integrated assessment modeling of European ozone control strategies is done utilizing the results of large-scale models intended for estimating the rural background ozone levels. This paper presents an initial study on how much local nitrogen oxide (NOx) concentrations can explain variations between large-scale ozone model results and urban ozone measurements, on one hand, and between urban and nearby rural measurements, on the other. The impact of urban NOx concentrations on ozone levels was derived from chemical equations describing the ozone balance. The study investigated the applicability of the method for improving the accuracy of modeled population exposure, which is needed for efficient control strategy development. The method was tested with NOx and ozone measurements from both urban and rural areas in Switzerland and with the ozone predictions of the large-scale photochemical model currently used in designing Europe-wide control strategies for ground-level ozone. The results suggest that urban NOx levels are a significant explanatory factor in differences between urban and nearby rural ozone concentrations and that the phenomenon could be satisfactorily represented with this kind of method. Further research efforts should comprise testing of the method in more locations and analyzing the performance of more widely applicable ways of deriving the initial paramete

This paper describes the module of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model dealing with the potential and costs for controlling emissions of nitrogen oxides. The paper discusses the selected aggregation level of the emission generating activities and reviews the major options for controlling NOx emissions. Algorithms for estimating emission control costs for stationary and mobile sources are presented. The cost calculation distinguishes 'general' (i.e., valid for all countries) and 'country-specific' parameters in order to capture characteristic technology- and site-specific factors influencing the actual costs of applying a certain measure under a given condition. The methodology is illustrated by two examples for typical control technologies (combustion modification together with selective catalytic reduction for power plant boilers and catalytic converters for cars). Finally, the method for constructing emission batement cost curves showing the relationships between the level of remaining emissions and the associated cost is explained. The general parameters used for cost calculation are presented in the main body of the report, while all country-specific parameters are contained in a number of appendices. Furthermore, energy scenarios as they are currently implemented in the RAINS model and the resulting cost curves for NOx control related to these energy scenarios are presented in these annexes.