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The existing medium-resolution land cover time series produced under the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative provides 29 years (1992–2020) of annual land cover maps at 300 m resolution, allowing for a detailed study of land change dynamics over the contemporary era. Because models need two-dimensional parameters rather than two-dimensional land cover information, the land cover classes must be converted into model-appropriate plant functional types (PFTs) to apply this time series to Earth system and land surface models. The first-generation cross-walking table that was presented with the land cover product prescribed pixel-level PFT fractional compositions that varied by land cover class but that lacked spatial variability. Here we describe a new ready-to-use data product for climate modelling: spatially explicit annual maps of PFT fractional composition at 300 m resolution for 1992–2020, created by fusing the 300 m medium-resolution land cover product with several existing high-resolution datasets using a globally consistent method. In the resulting data product, which has 14 layers for each of the 29 years, pixel values at 300 m resolution indicate the percentage cover (0 %–100 %) for each of 14 PFTs, with pixel-level PFT composition exhibiting significant intra-class spatial variability at the global scale. We additionally present an updated version of the user tool that allows users to modify the baseline product (e.g. re-mapping, re-projection, PFT conversion, and spatial sub-setting) to meet individual needs. Finally, these new PFT maps have been used in two land surface models – Organising Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) – to demonstrate their benefit over the conventional maps based on a generic cross-walking table. Regional changes in the fractions of trees, short vegetation, and bare-soil cover induce changes in surface properties, such as the albedo, leading to significant changes in surface turbulent fluxes, temperature, and vegetation carbon stocks. The dataset is accessible at https://doi.org/10.5285/26a0f46c95ee4c29b5c650b129aab788 (Harper et al., 2023).

Increasing summer temperatures in a warming climate will increase the exposure of the UK population to heat-stress and associated heat-related mortality. Urban inhabitants are particularly at risk, as urban areas are often significantly warmer than rural areas as a result of the urban heat island phenomenon. The latest UK Climate Projections include an ensemble of convection-permitting model (CPM) simulations which provide credible climate information at the city-scale, the first of their kind for national climate scenarios. Using a newly developed urban signal extraction technique, we quantify the urban influence on present-day (1981–2000) and future (2061–2080) temperature extremes in the CPM compared to the coarser resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations over UK cities. We find that the urban influence in these models is markedly different, with the magnitude of night-time urban heat islands overestimated in the RCM, significantly for the warmest nights (up to $$4~^{\circ }$$ 4 ∘ C), while the CPM agrees much better with observations. This improvement is driven by the improved land-surface representation and more sophisticated urban scheme MORUSES employed by the CPM, which distinguishes street canyons and roofs. In future, there is a strong amplification of the urban influence in the RCM, whilst there is little change in the CPM. We find that future changes in soil moisture play an important role in the magnitude of the urban influence, highlighting the importance of the accurate representation of land-surface and hydrological processes for urban heat island studies. The results indicate that the CPM provides more reliable urban temperature projections, due at least in part to the improved urban scheme.

Good representation of turbulence in urban canopy models is necessary for accurate prediction of momentum and scalar distribution in and above urban canopies. To develop and improve turbulence closure schemes for one-dimensional multi-layer urban canopy models, turbulence characteristics are investigated here by analyzing existing large-eddy simulation and direct numerical simulation data. A range of geometries and flow regimes are analyzed that span packing densities of 0.0625 to 0.44, different building array configurations (cubes and cuboids, aligned and staggered arrays, and variable building height), and different incident wind directions ($$0^\circ $$ 0 ∘ and $$45^\circ $$ 45 ∘ with regards to the building face). Momentum mixing-length profiles share similar characteristics across the range of geometries, making a first-order momentum mixing-length turbulence closure a promising approach. In vegetation canopies turbulence is dominated by mixing-layer eddies of a scale determined by the canopy-top shear length scale. No relationship was found between the depth-averaged momentum mixing length within the canopy and the canopy-top shear length scale in the present study. By careful specification of the intrinsic averaging operator in the canopy, an often-overlooked term that accounts for changes in plan area density with height is included in a first-order momentum mixing-length turbulence closure model. For an array of variable-height buildings, its omission leads to velocity overestimation of up to $$17\%$$ 17 % . Additionally, we observe that the von Kármán coefficient varies between 0.20 and 0.51 across simulations, which is the first time such a range of values has been documented. When driving flow is oblique to the building faces, the ratio of dispersive to turbulent momentum flux is larger than unity in the lower half of the canopy, and wake production becomes significant compared to shear production of turbulent momentum flux. It is probable that dispersive momentum fluxes are more significant than previously thought in real urban settings, where the wind direction is almost always oblique.

The existing medium-resolution land cover time series produced under the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative provides 29 years (1992–2020) of annual land cover maps at 300-m resolution, allowing for a detailed study of land change dynamics over the contemporary era. Because models need 2D parameters rather than 2D land cover information, the land cover classes must be converted into model-appropriate plant functional types (PFTs) to apply this time series to Earth system and land surface models. The first generation cross-walking table that was presented with the land cover product prescribed pixel-level PFT fractional compositions that varied by land cover class but lacked spatial variability. Here we describe a new ready-to-use data product for climate modelling: spatially explicit annual maps of PFT fractional composition at 300 m resolution for 1992–2020, created by fusing the 300 m medium-resolution land cover product with several existing high-resolution datasets using a globally consistent method. In the resulting data product, which has 14 layers for each of the 29 years, pixel values at 300-m resolution indicate the percentage cover (0–100 %) for each of 14 PFTs, with pixel-level PFT composition exhibiting significant intra-class spatial variability at the global scale. We additionally present an updated version of the user tool that allows users to modify the baseline product (e.g., re-mapping, re-projection, PFT conversion, and spatial sub-setting) to meet individual needs. Finally, these new PFT maps have been used in two land surface models - ORCHIDEE and JULES - to demonstrate their benefit over the conventional maps based on a generic cross-walking table. Regional changes in the fractions of trees, short vegetation, and bare soil cover induce changes in surface properties, such as the albedo, leading to significant changes in surface turbulent fluxes, temperature, and vegetation carbon stocks.

In the United Kingdom, where 90% of residents are projected to live in urban areas by 2050, projecting changes in urban heat islands (UHIs) is essential to municipal adaptation. Increased summer temperatures are linked to increased mortality. Using the new regional U.K. Climate Projections, UKCP18-regional, we estimate the 1981–2079 trends in summer urban and rural near-surface air temperatures and in UHI intensities during day and at night in the 10 most populous built-up areas in England. Summer temperatures increase by 0.45°–0.81°C per decade under RCP8.5, depending on the time of day and location. Nighttime temperatures increase more in urban than rural areas, enhancing the nighttime UHI by 0.01°–0.05°C per decade in all cities. When these upward UHI signals emerge from 2008–18 variability, positive summer nighttime UHI intensities of up to 1.8°C are projected in most cities. However, we can prevent most of these upward nighttime UHI signals from emerging by stabilizing climate to the Paris Agreement target of 2°C above preindustrial levels. In contrast, daytime UHI intensities decrease in nine cities, at rates between −0.004° and −0.05°C per decade, indicating a trend toward a reduced daytime UHI effect. These changes reflect different feedbacks over urban and rural areas and are specific to UKCP18-regional. Future research is important to better understand the drivers of these UHI intensity changes.

A recently developed, height-distributed urban drag parametrization is tested with the London Model, a sub-kilometre resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model over Greater London. The distributed-drag parametrization requires vertical morphology profiles in the form of height-distributed frontal-area functions, which capture the full extent and variability of building heights. London’s morphology profiles are calculated and parametrized by an exponential distribution with the ratio of maximum to mean building height as the parameter. A case study evaluates the differences between the new distributed-drag scheme and the current London Model setup using the MORUSES urban land-surface model. The new drag parametrization shows increased horizontal spatial variability in total surface stress, identifying densely built-up areas, high-rise building clusters, parks, and the river. Effects on the wind speed in the lower levels include a lesser gradient and more heterogeneous wind profiles, extended wakes downwind of the city centre, and vertically growing perturbations that suggest the formation of internal boundary layers. The surface sensible heat fluxes are underpredicted, which is attributed to difficulties coupling the distributed momentum exchange with the surface-based heat exchange., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (741), ISSN:0035-9009, ISSN:1477-870X

Urban environments in numerical weather prediction models are currently parameterised as part of the atmosphere-surface exchange at ground-level. The vertical structure of buildings is represented by the average height, which does not account for heterogeneous building forms at the subgrid-level. The use of city-scale models with sub-kilometre resolutions and growing number of high-rise buildings in cities call for a better vertical representation of urban environments.We present the use of a newly developed, height-distributed urban drag parameterization with the London Model, a high-resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model over Greater London and surroundings at approximately 333 m resolution. The distributed drag parameterization requires vertical morphology profiles in form of height-distributed frontal area functions, which capture the full extent and variability of building-heights. These morphology profiles were calculated for Greater London and parameterised by an exponential distribution with the ratio of maximum to mean building-height as parameter.A case study with the high-resolution London Model and the new drag parameterization appears to capture more realistic features of the urban boundary layer compared to the standard parameterization. The simulation showed increased horizontal spatial variability in total surface stress, identifying a broad range of morphology features (densely built-up areas, high-rise building clusters, parks and the river). Vertical effects include heterogeneous wind profiles, extended building wakes, and indicate the formation of internal boundary layers. This study demonstrates the potential of height-distributed urban parameterizations to improve urban weather forecasting, albeit research into distribution of heat- and moisture-exchange is necessary for a fully distributed parameterization of urban areas.

Two urban schemes within the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator\ud (JULES) are evaluated offline against multi-year flux observations in the densely\ud built-up city centre of London and in suburban Swindon (UK): (i) the 1-tile slab\ud model, used in climate simulations, (ii) the 2-tile canopy model MORUSES (Met\ud Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme), used for numerical weather pre-\ud diction over the UK. Offline, both models perform better at the suburban site,\ud where differences between the urban schemes are less pronounced due to larger\ud vegetation fractions. At both sites, the outgoing short- and longwave radiation is\ud more accurately represented than the turbulent heat fluxes. The seasonal varia-\ud tions of model skill are large in London, where the sensible heat flux in autumn and\ud winter is strongly under-predicted if the large city-centre magnitudes of anthro-\ud pogenic heat emissions are not represented. The delayed timing of the sensible heat flux in the 1-tile model in London results in large negative bias in the morning.\ud The partitioning of the urban surface into canyon and roof in MORUSES improves\ud this as the roof-tile is modelled with a very low thermal inertia, but phase and\ud amplitude of the gridbox-averaged flux critically depend on accurate knowledge of\ud the plan-area fractions of streets and buildings. Not representing non-urban land-\ud cover (e.g. vegetation, inland water) in London results in severely under-predicted\ud latent heat fluxes. Control runs demonstrate that the skill of both models can be\ud greatly improved by providing accurate land-cover and morphology information\ud and using representative anthropogenic heat emissions, which is essential if the\ud model output is intended to inform integrated urban services.

With the predicted increase in heatwave frequency in the UK due to climate change, there has been an increasing research focus on mortality during hot weather. This paper examines the risk of mortality in London during hot weather by combining data on population age and distribution, Urban Heat Island (UHI), and dwelling propensity to overheat due to geometry and fabric characteristics derived using building physics in order to calculate the spatial variation in heat-related mortality risk across London. Spatial variation of heat-related mortality was found to reflect background mortality rates due to population age, while dwelling characteristics were found to cause a larger variation in temperature exposure (and therefore risk) than UHI. The highest levels of excess mortality were found in areas with larger elderly populations, towards the outskirts of the Greater London Authority (GLA).

The ClearfLo project provides integrated measurements of the meteorology, composition and particulate loading of London's urban atmosphere to improve predictive capability for air quality.Air quality and heat are strong health drivers and their accurate assessment and forecast are important in densely populated urban areas. However, the sources and processes leading to high concentrations of main pollutants such as ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and fine and coarse particulate matter in complex urban areas are not fully understood, limiting our ability to forecast air quality accurately. This paper introduces the ClearfLo project's interdisciplinary approach to investigate the processes leading to poor air quality and elevated temperatures.Within ClearfLo (www.clearflo.ac.uk), a large multi-institutional project funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), integrated measurements of meteorology, gaseous and particulate composition/loading within London's atmosphere were undertaken to understand the processes underlying poor air quality. Long-term measurement infrastructure installed at multiple levels (street and elevated), and at urban background, kerbside and rural locations were complemented with high-resolution numerical atmospheric simulations . Combining these (measurement/modeling) enhances understanding of seasonal variations in meteorology and composition together with the controlling processes. Two intensive observation periods (winter 2012 and summer Olympics 2012) focus upon the vertical structure and evolution of the urban boundary layer, chemical controls on nitrogen dioxide and ozone production, in particular the role of volatile organic compounds, and processes controlling the evolution, size, distribution and composition of particulate matter. The paper shows that mixing heights are deeper over London than in the rural surroundings and the seasonality of the urban boundary layer evolution controls when concentrations peak. The composition also reflects the seasonality of sources such as domestic burning and biogenic emissions.

A Met Office/Natural Environment Research Council Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme workshop brought together 50 key international scientists from the UK and international community to formulate the key requirements for an Urban Meteorological Research strategy. The workshop was jointly organised by University of Reading and the Met Office.

This paper analyses the trends of the changing environmental effects within growing megacities as their diameters exceed 50–100 km and their populations rise beyond 30 million people. The authors consider how these effects are influenced by climate change, to which urban areas themselves contribute, caused by their increasing greenhouse gas emissions associated with rapidly expanding energy use. Other environmental and social factors are assessed, quantitatively and qualitatively, using detailed modelling of urban mesoscale meteorology, which shows how these factors can lead to large conurbations becoming more vulnerable to climatic and environmental hazards. The paper discusses the likely changes in meteorological and hydrological hazards in urban areas, both as the climate changes and the sizes of urban areas grow. Examples are given of how these risks are being reduced through innovations in warning and response systems, planning and infrastructure design, which should include refuges against extreme natural disasters. Policies are shown to be more effective when they are integrated and based on substantial community involvement. Some conclusions are drawn regarding how policies for the natural and artificial environment and for reducing many kinds of climate and hazard risk are related to future designs and planning of infrastructure and open spaces.

We investigate the role of the anthropogenic heat flux on the urban heat island of London. To do this, the time-varying anthropogenic heat flux is added to an urban surface-energy balance parametrization, the Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme (MORUSES), implemented in a 1 km resolution version of the UK Met Office Unified Model. The anthropogenic heat flux is derived from energy-demand data for London and is specified on the model's 1 km grid; it includes variations on diurnal and seasonal time-scales. We contrast a spring case with a winter case, to illustrate the effects of the larger anthropogenic heat flux in winter and the different roles played by thermodynamics in the different seasons. The surface-energy balance channels the anthropogenic heat into heating the urban surface, which warms slowly because of the large heat capacity of the urban surface. About one third of this additional warming goes into increasing the outgoing long-wave radiation and only about two thirds goes into increasing the sensible heat flux that warms the atmosphere. The anthropogenic heat flux has a larger effect on screen-level temperatures in the winter case, partly because the anthropogenic flux is larger then and partly because the boundary layer is shallower in winter. For the specific winter case studied here, the anthropogenic heat flux maintains a well-mixed boundary layer through the whole night over London, whereas the surrounding rural boundary layer becomes strongly stably stratified. This finding is likely to have important implications for air quality in winter. On the whole, inclusion of the anthropogenic heat flux improves the comparison between model simulations and measurements of screen-level temperature slightly and indicates that the anthropogenic heat flux is beginning to be an important factor in the London urban heat island.

BACKGROUND: Investigators have examined whether heat mortality risk is increased in neighborhoods subject to the urban heat island (UHI) effect but have not identified degrees of difference in susceptibility to heat and cold between cool and hot areas, which we call acclimatization to the UHI. OBJECTIVES: We developed methods to examine and quantify the degree of acclimatization to heat- and cold-related mortality in relation to UHI anomalies and applied these methods to London, UK. METHODS: Case-crossover analyses were undertaken on 1993-2006 mortality data from London UHI decile groups defined by anomalies from the London average of modeled air temperature at a 1-km grid resolution. We estimated how UHI anomalies modified excess mortality on cold and hot days for London overall and displaced a fixed-shape temperature-mortality function ("shifted spline" model). We also compared the observed associations with those expected under no or full acclimatization to the UHI. RESULTS: The relative risk of death on hot versus normal days differed very little across UHI decile groups. A 1°C UHI anomaly multiplied the risk of heat death by 1.004 (95% CI: 0.950, 1.061) (interaction rate ratio) compared with the expected value of 1.070 (1.057, 1.082) if there were no acclimatization. The corresponding UHI interaction for cold was 1.020 (0.979, 1.063) versus 1.030 (1.026, 1.034) (actual versus expected under no acclimatization, respectively). Fitted splines for heat shifted little across UHI decile groups, again suggesting acclimatization. For cold, the splines shifted somewhat in the direction of no acclimatization, but did not exclude acclimatization. CONCLUSIONS: We have proposed two analytical methods for estimating the degree of acclimatization to the heat- and cold-related mortality burdens associated with UHIs. The results for London suggest relatively complete acclimatization to the UHI effect on summer heat-related mortality, but less clear evidence for cold-related mortality. CITATION: Milojevic A, Armstrong BG, Gasparrini A, Bohnenstengel SI, Barratt B, Wilkinson P. 2016. Methods to estimate acclimatization to urban heat island effects on heat- and cold-related mortality. Environ Health Perspect 124:1016-1022; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510109.

About 80 % of the population within the North Sea countries currently lives in an urban area and this percentage is projected to continue to rise. Urban areas are not only impacted by changes in regional climate but are themselves responsible for causing local modifications in regional climate resulting in the so-called ‘urban climate’. The urban climate in North Sea cities has several common features: higher temperatures relative to the surrounding regions (especially at night), greater temperature variability, deeper but less stable boundary layers at night, lower average wind speeds but stronger gusts, reduced evapotranspiration, and greater air pollution (local exceedances of limit values for nitrogen oxides, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter, with ship emissions a relevant contributor in harbour cities). Indications of climate change are now apparent and include hinterland flooding, more intense precipitation, and drier and warmer summers. Cities contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and measures are needed to reduce these. Cities also need to adapt to climate change. Despite broad similarities between urban areas, in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change there are large location-specific differences with regard to city planning needs. Hamburg and London are used as examples. Adaptation measures include better insulation of buildings to reduce energy use and anthropogenic heat emissions, higher dykes to protect against increased water levels, and rain water drainage to avoid hinterland flooding. Scenarios are outlined for urban development with greened roofs, higher albedo values and lower sealing of surfaces.

We present simulations of London's meteorology using the Met Office Unified Model with a new, sophisticated surface energy-balance scheme to represent the urban surfaces, called MORUSES. Simulations are performed with the urban surfaces represented and with the urban surfaces replaced with grass in order to calculate the urban increment on the local meteorology. The local urban effects were moderated to some extent by the passage of an onshore flow that propagated up the Thames estuary and across the city, cooling London slightly in the afternoon. Validations of screen-level temperature show encouraging agreement to within 1–2 K, when the urban increment is up to 5 K. The model results are then used to examine factors shaping the spatial and temporal structure of London's atmospheric boundary layer. The simulations reconcile the differences in the temporal evolution of the urban heat island (UHI) shown in various studies and demonstrate that the variation of UHI with time depends strongly on the urban fetch. The UHI at a location downwind of the city centre shows a decrease in UHI during the night, while the UHI at the city centre stays constant. Finally, the UHI at a location upwind of the city centre increases continuously. The magnitude of the UHI by the time of the evening transition increases with urban fetch. The urban increments are largest at night, when the boundary layer is shallow. The boundary layer experiences continued warming after sunset, as the heat from the urban fabric is released, and a weakly convective boundary layer develops across the city. The urban land-use fraction is the dominant control on the spatial structure in the sensible heat flux and the resulting urban increment, although even the weak advection present in this case study is sufficient to advect the peak temperature increments downwind of the most built-up areas. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Obstacles considerably influence boundary layer processes. Their influences have been included in mesoscale models (MeM) for a long time. Methods used to parameterise obstacle effects in a MeM are summarised in this paper using results of the mesoscale model METRAS as examples. Besides the parameterisation of obstacle influences it is also possible to use a joint modelling approach to describe obstacle induced and mesoscale changes. Three different methods may be used for joint modelling approaches: The first method is a time-slice approach, where steady basic state profiles are used in an obstacle resolving microscale model (MiM, example model MITRAS) and diurnal cycles are derived by joining steady-state MITRAS results. The second joint modelling approach is one-way nesting, where the MeM results are used to initialise the MiM and to drive the boundary values of the MiM dependent on time. The third joint modelling approach is to apply multi-scale models or two-way nesting approaches, which include feedbacks from the MiM to the MeM. The advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches and remaining problems with joint Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes modelling approaches are summarised in the paper.

Urban land surface schemes have been developed to model the distinct features of the urban surface and the associated energy exchange processes. These models have been developed for a range of purposes and make different assumptions related to the inclusion and representation of the relevant processes. Here, the first results of Phase 2 from an international comparison project to evaluate 32 urban land surface schemes are presented. This is the first large-scale systematic evaluation of these models. In four stages, participants were given increasingly detailed information about an urban site for which urban fluxes were directly observed. At each stage, each group returned their models' calculated surface energy balance fluxes. Wide variations are evident in the performance of the models for individual fluxes. No individual model performs best for all fluxes. Providing additional information about the surface generally results in better performance. However, there is clear evidence that poor choice of parameter values can cause a large drop in performance for models that otherwise perform well. As many models do not perform well across all fluxes, there is need for caution in their application, and users should be aware of the implications for applications and decision making. Copyright  2010 Royal Meteorological Society

We investigate the question of how many facets are needed to represent the energy balance of an urban area by developing simplified 3-, 2- and 1-facet versions of a 4-facet energy balance model of two-dimensional streets and buildings. The 3-facet model simplifies the 4-facet model by averaging over the canyon orientation, which results in similar net shortwave and longwave balances for both wall facets, but maintains the asymmetry in the heat fluxes within the street canyon. For the 2-facet model, on the assumption that the wall and road temperatures are equal, the road and wall facets can be combined mathematically into a single street-canyon facet with effective values of the heat transfer coefficient, albedo, emissivity and thermodynamic properties, without further approximation. The 1-facet model requires the additional assumption that the roof temperature is also equal to the road and wall temperatures. Idealised simulations show that the geometry and material properties of the walls and road lead to a large heat capacity of the combined street canyon, whereas the roof behaves like a flat surface with low heat capacity. This means that the magnitude of the diurnal temperature variation of the street-canyon facets are broadly similar and much smaller than the diurnal temperature variation of the roof facets. Consequently, the approximation that the street-canyon facets have similar temperatures is sound, and the road and walls can be combined into a single facet. The roof behaves very differently and a separate roof facet is required. Consequently, the 2-facet model performs similarly to the 4-facet model, while the 1-facet model does not. The models are compared with previously published observations collected in Mexico City. Although the 3- and 2-facet models perform better than the 1-facet model, the present models are unable to represent the phase of the sensible heat flux. This result is consistent with previous model comparisons, and we argue that this feature of the data cannot be produced by a single column model. We conclude that a 2-facet model is necessary, and for numerical weather prediction sufficient, to model an urban surface, and that this conclusion is robust and therefore applicable to more general geometries.

A numerical study has been carried out to investigate the influence of large-scale thermal effects and strong local-scale temperature gradients near the ground on the circulation inside a street canyon. The results show that the dynamical forcing dominates the circulation inside a street canyon. But this forcing is influenced by the large-scale thermal stability. Thus, atmospheric stability indirectly controls the street canyon circulation. Small temperature gradients inside the street-canyon are neutralised by the external dynamical forcing. Strong temperature gradients inside the street-canyon show an impact on the street canyon circulation. While stable stratification reduces the circulation for the building configuration investigated, convective stratification seems to intensify it.

Objective: To develop methods to examine variation in the observed temperature- mortality relationship by urban heat island (UHI) zones in London. Methods: London UHI zones were defined by mean ano...

A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no comparison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling approaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux.

With increasing computing power resolutions of mesoscale atmospheric models increase. However, this does not necessarily improve model performance as evaluations show. Especially, in very heterogeneous areas like urban areas, where densely built areas with sealed surfaces and irrigated gardens and parks occur within the same grid box the aggregation effect impacts model performance. To ensure a good forecast of pollutant concentrations an accurate prediction of the flow field and the vertical mixing is essential. Two schemes to parameterize sub-grid-scale surface fluxes are applied to the area around Berlin for different meteorological situations and grid resolutions. Parameter averaging and a flux aggregation method with blending height concept are validated for grid resolutions 4, 8 and 16 km. Model performance is determined by calculating hit rates from the German Weather Service (DWD) routine data.