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Aim To project the potential European distribution of seven broad habitat categories (needle-leaved, broad-leaved, mixed and mediterranean forest, urban, grassland and cropland) in order to assess effects of land use, climate change and increase in CO2 on predicted habitat changes up to the year 2050. Location Europe. Method We modelled the response of European vegetation to changes in land use, climate and CO2 by combining the land-use model Dyna- CLUE (based on the CORINE land-cover data) and the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Two reforestation options were explored: maintaining the current range of tree species ( EFI) or promoting naturally occurring tree species ( NAT). Climate data from two general circulation models and two SRES scenarios ( A2 and B1) were used. The broad habitat types were classified according to a combination of land use and the dominant plant species. Results Our models predicted that croplands and grasslands are expected to decrease due to land-use change. Although climate change has a negative effect on needle-leaved forest, it is expected to maintain its area or even increase in the EFI reforestation option while mediterranean, broad-leaved and mixed forests are expected to increase markedly. All investigated drivers have shown some effect, but land use is the dominant contributor to broad habitat change except for needle-leaved and mixed which are mainly influenced by climate change. Main conclusions Land use is predicted to have the greatest effect on broad habitat distribution according to our simulations. Hence in most parts of Europe mitigating actions should focus on land-use change rather than climate change. According to our simulation, the effects of the different drivers are not in general additive. In some cases they act synergistically and in some cases antagonistically. The projected habitat changes are a valuable tool for species distribution modelling and are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant communities and their ecosystem functions are expected to be more resilient to future habitat fragmentation and deterioration if the species comprising the communities have a wide range of dispersal and persistence strategies. However, the extent to which the diversity of dispersal and persistence traits in plant communities is determined by the current and historical characteristics of sites and their surrounding landscape has yet to be explored., Using quantitative information on long-distance seed dispersal potential by wind and animals (dispersal in space) and on species' persistence/longevity (dispersal in time), we (i) compared levels of dispersal and persistence trait diversity (functional richness, FRic, and functional divergence, FDiv) in seminatural grassland plant communities with those expected by chance, and (ii) quantified the extent to which trait diversity was explained by current and historical landscape structure and local management history - taking into account spatial and phylogenetic autocorrel., Null model analysis revealed that more grassland communities than expected had a level of trait diversity that was lower or higher than predicted, given the level of species richness. Both the range ( FRic) and divergence ( FDiv) of dispersal and persistence trait values increased with grassland age. FDiv was mainly explained by the interaction between current grazing intensity and the amount of grassland habitat in the surrounding landscape in 1938., Synthesis. The study suggests that the variability of dispersal and persistence traits in grassland plant communities is driven by deterministic assembly processes, with both history and current management (and their interactions), playing a major role as determinants of trait diversity. While a long continuity of grazing management is likely to have promoted the diversity of dispersal and persistence traits in present-day grasslands, communities in sites that are well grazed at the present day, and were also surrounded by large amounts of grassland in the past, showed the highest diversity of dispersal and persistence strategies. Our results indicate that the historical context of a site within a landscape will influence the extent to which current grazing management is able to maintain a diversity of dispersal and persistence strategies and buffer communities (and their associated functions) against continuing habitat fragmentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study explores whether small-scale species diversity, species evenness and species richness in semi-natural grassland communities are similarly associated with present management regime and/or present and historical landscape context (percentage of different land-cover types in the surroundings). Species diversity, evenness and richness were recorded within 441 50×50cm grassland plots in 4.5×4.5km agricultural landscape on Öland, Sweden. Recent and historical land-cover maps (years 2004, 1959, 1938, 1835, and 1800) were used to characterize the present and past landscape context of the sampled vegetation plots. Partial regression and simultaneous autoregressive models were used to explore the relationships between species diversity measures (Shannon diversity, richness and evenness) and different explanatory variables while accounting for spatial autocorrelation in the data. The results indicated that species richness was relatively sensitive to grassland isolation, while the response of species evenness to isolation was characterized by a degree of inertia. Because the richness and evenness components of species diversity may respond differently to habitat fragmentation, we suggest that monitoring projects and empirical studies that focus on changes in biodiversity in semi-natural grasslands should include the assessment of species evenness – as a complement to the assessment of species richness. In addition, our results indicated that the development and persistence of a species-rich and even grassland vegetation was favoured in areas that have historically (in the 19th century) been surrounded by grasslands. Information on landscape history should, whenever possible, be incorporated into the planning of strategies for grassland conservation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Vegetation patterns of subalpine gully-head mires were investigated in the flat-topped Lammerlaw and Lammermoor Ranges, South Island, New Zealand. Two intensively studied mires each consist of a series of peaty terraces and scarps. Terraces may contain pools, elongated downslope in the narrow, lower altitude mire, but across slope in the broader, upper mire. A crest occurs on some terrace lips, and marginal "spillways" (channel-like zones) occur down some scarps. Some mires have drained by subsurface pipes. Vegetation analysis distinguished between grassland or herbfield on gully sides, vegetation of mire margins, showing aspect differences on the steeper, lower mire, and the vegetation of gully floors, including oligotrophic mire centre vegetation and species-poor pools. The crests, though warmer, bore no special vegetation type. Mineral soil beneath the peat indicates a previous non-mire vegetation, which has subsequently paludified. Scarp slumps indicate downslope creep of organic material. Peat fissures, and mineral, vegetation, and erosion dams all appear to have initiated development of some pools. Mires are designated gully-head ribbon fens. Patterning appears to be accentuated because of the mires' gully-head location on broad-topped ranges, and drainage of soligenous water from upslope gully sides. These apparently unique fens give insight into patterning in aapa mires, and merit special conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Process-based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In this study, four models – RHESSys, GOTILWA+, LPJ-GUESS and ORCHIDEE – representing both modelling approaches were compared and evaluated against benchmarks provided by eddy-covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes at 15 forest sites within the EUROFLUX project. Overall, model-measurement agreement varied greatly among sites. Both modelling approaches have somewhat different strengths, but there was no model among those tested that universally performed well on the two variables evaluated. Small biases and errors suggest that ORCHIDEE and GOTILWA+ performed better in simulating carbon fluxes while LPJ-GUESS and RHESSys did a better job in simulating water fluxes. In general, the models can be considered as useful tools for studies of climate change impacts on carbon and water cycling in forests. However, the various sources of variation among models simulations and between models simulations and observed data described in this study place some constraints on the results and to some extent reduce their reliability. For example, at most sites in the Mediterranean region all models generally performed poorly most likely because of problems in the representation of water stress effects on both carbon uptake by photosynthesis and carbon release by heterotrophic respiration ( Rh). The use of flux data as a means of assessing key processes in models of this type is an important approach to improving model performance. Our results show that the models have value but that further model development is necessary with regard to the representation of the some of the key ecosystem processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To identify the effect of climate change on selected plant species representative of the main vegetation types in the Faroe Islands. Due to a possible weakening of the North Atlantic Current, it is difficult to predict whether the climate in the Faroe Islands will be warmer or colder as a result of global warming. Therefore, two scenarios are proposed. The first scenario assumes an increase in summer and winter temperature of 2 °C, and the second a decrease in summer and winter temperature of 2 °C. Temperate, low alpine and alpine areas in the northern and central part of the Faroe Islands. The responses of 12 different plant species in the Faroe Islands were tested against measured soil temperature, expressed as Tmin, Tmax, snow cover and growing degree days (GDD), using generalised linear modelling (GLM). The tolerance to changes in winter soil temperature (0.3–0.8 °C) was found to be lower than the tolerance to changing summer soil temperature (0.7–1.0 °C), and in both cases lower than the predicted climate changes. The species most affected by a warming scenario are those that are found with a limited distribution restricted to the uppermost parts of the mountains, especially Salix herbacea, Racomitrium fasciculare, and Bistorta vivipara. For other species, the effect will mainly be a general upward migration. The most vulnerable species are those with a low tolerance, especially Calluna vulgaris, and also Empetrum nigrum, and Nardus stricta. If the climate in the Faroe Islands should become colder, the most vulnerable species are those at low altitudes. A significantly lower temperature would be expected to produce a serious reduction in the extent of Vaccinium myrtillus and Galium saxatilis. Species like Empetrum nigrum, Nardus stricta, and Calluna vulgaris may also be vulnerable. In any case, these species can be expected to migrate downwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The objective of the European Terrestrial Ecosystem Modelling Activity (ETEMA) was to address some of the major challenges in developing generalized models to examine responses of natural and seminatural ecosystems to environmental change at the regional to European scale. The approach described herein was to break down the totality of ecosystem functioning into its key components, each with its characteristic spatial and temporal scales. A conceptual framework was developed describing the configuration of these components as modules within a generalized simulation model. The framework describes the key inputs, outputs and state variables, their spatial and temporal contexts, and information flows between modules. The ‘backbone’ of the model is a system of nested timing loops corresponding to the disparate time scales at which different ecosystem processes occur. The framework is a theoretical construct into which ecosystem models at levels of complexity ranging from the very general to the highly detailed can be mapped, and thus provides a guide for development of models for novel, particularly regional-scale, applications. A number of subsystem studies of the major components of ecosystem functioning, i.e. modules of the conceptual framework, are briefly introduced herein. The general aim of the subsystem studies was to identify the key alternative formulations (as opposed to minor variants) and test these against observational data. The various subsystem studies concern planetary boundary layer–ecosystem interactions, ecosystem CO2 and H2O fluxes, vegetation physiology and phenology, biogeography and vegetation dynamics, detritus and SOM dynamics, soil moisture and human and natural disturbances and, as individual papers, they complete this special ETEMA issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract 1 We assess the robustness of a 1500-year palaeoclimate data base and forest gap model in simulating northern Scandinavian boreal forest succession since ad 500. We also evaluate trends in species abundance in a nemoral woodland in southern Scandinavia by comparing modelling results to palaeoecological data. 2 Simulated biomass trends for Picea, Pinus and Betula growing at Penningholmen (northern Sweden) are strikingly similar to those observed in the local pollen record, particularly in the replication of the early Little Ice Age (LIA) decline in Betula and the late-LIA dieback of Picea and Pinus. 3 LIA decreases in Betula may therefore be partly due to the effects of climate on its competitive interactions with Pinus, as well as the previously proposed effects of insect herbivory. 4 Simulations of Draved Forest (western Denmark), suggest that Tilia is under-represented in modern-day Scandinavian nemoral woodlands, and consequently that the present dominance of Fagus probably reflects strong human–plant interactions from as early as the beginning of the 17th century. 5 This study highlights the importance, despite general limitations associated with vegetation models, of model-data comparisons for understanding mechanisms and processes underlying past forest succession, and emphasizes the usefulness of forest models for reconstructing climate influences on past vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1 We model the potential vegetation and annual net primary production (NPP) of China on a 10′ grid under the present climate using the processed-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3. The simulated distribution of the vegetation was in general in good agreement with the potential natural vegetation based on a numerical comparison between the two maps using the ΔV statistic (ΔV = 0.23). Predicted and measured NPP were also similar, especially in terms of biome-averages. 2 A coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model including sulphate aerosols was used to drive a double greenhouse gas scenario for 2070-2099. Simulated vegetation maps from two different CO[sub 2] scenarios (340 and 500 p.p.m.v.) were compared to the baseline biome map using ΔV. Climate change alone produced a large reduction in desert, alpine tundra and ice/polar desert, and a general pole-ward shift of the boreal, temperate deciduous, warm-temperate evergreen and tropical forest belts, a decline in boreal deciduous forest and the appearance of tropical deciduous forest. The inclusion of CO[sub 2] physiological effects led to a marked decrease in moist savannas and desert, a general decrease for grasslands and steppe, and disappearance of xeric woodland/scrub. Temperate deciduous broadleaved forest, however, shifted north to occupy nearly half the area of previously temperate mixed forest. 3 The impact of climate change and increasing CO[sub 2] is not only on biogeography, but also on potential NPP. The NPP values for most of the biomes in the scenarios with CO[sub 2] set at 340 p.p.m.v. and 500 p.p.m.v. are greater than those under the current climate, except for the temperate deciduous forest, temperate evergreen broadleaved forest, tropical rain forest, tropical seasonal forest, and xeric woodland/scrub biomes. Total vegetation and total carbon is simulated to increase significantly in the future climate scenario, both with and without the CO[sub... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on a study which illustrated the use of a proposed measure of the dissimilarity between biomes on biome simulations representing a range of high greenhouse gas conditions. Background of the study; Methods; Results and discussion.

Summarizes the effect of carbon dioxide-induced climate change on the potential distribution of major north European tree species. Use of bioclimatic model STASH; Prediction of species' potential range limits in altered climate; Assessment of transient dynamics of forest under climatic change; Role of immigration and disturbance in climatic change.

Theory predicts that the processes generating biodiversity after disturbance will change during succession. Comparisons of phylogenetic and functional (alpha and beta) diversity with taxonomic diversity can provide insights into the extent to which community assembly is driven by deterministic or stochastic processes, but comparative approaches have yet to be applied to successional systems., We characterized taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional plant (alpha and beta) diversity within and between four successional stages in a > 270-year-long arable-to-grassland chronosequence. Null models were used to test whether functional and phylogenetic turnover differed from random expectations, given the levels of species diversity., The three facets of diversity showed different patterns of change during succession. Between early and early-mid succession, species richness increased but there was no increase in functional or phylogenetic diversity. Higher than predicted levels of functional similarity between species within the early and early-mid successional stages, indicate that abiotic filters have selected for sets of functionally similar species within sites. Between late-mid and late succession, there was no further increase in species richness, but a significant increase in functional alpha diversity, suggesting that functionally redundant species were replaced by functionally more dissimilar species. Functional turnover between stages was higher than predicted, and higher than within-stage turnover, indicating that different assembly processes act at different successional stages., Synthesis. Analysis of spatial and temporal turnover in different facets of diversity suggests that deterministic processes generate biodiversity during post-disturbance ecosystem development and that the relative importance of assembly processes has changed over time. Trait-mediated abiotic filtering appears to play an important role in community assembly during the early and early-mid stages of arable-to-grassland succession, whereas the relative importance of competitive exclusion appears to have increased towards the later successional stages. Phylogenetic diversity provided a poor reflection of functional diversity and did not contribute to inferences about underlying assembly processes. Functionally deterministic assembly suggests that it may be possible to predict future post-disturbance changes in biodiversity, and associated ecosystem attributes, on the basis of species' functional traits but not phylogeny. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Question: Can satellite data be related to fine-scale species diversity and does the integrated use of field and satellite data provide information that can be used in the estimation of fine-scale species diversity in semi-natural grassland sites? Location: The Baltic Island of Öland (Sweden). Methods: Field work including the on-site description of 62 semi-natural grassland sites (represented by three 0.5 m × 0.5 m plots per site) was performed to record response variables (total species richness, mean species richness and species spatial turnover) and field-measured explanatory variables (field-layer height and distance between plots). Within each site, QuickBird satellite data were extracted from a standardized sample area by associating each field plot with a 3 × 3 pixel window (1 pixel=2.4 m × 2.4 m). Explanatory variables (the normalized difference vegetation index and spectral heterogeneity) were generated from the satellite data. Correlation tests, univariate regressions, variance partitioning and multivariate linear regressions were used to analyse the associations between response and explanatory variables. Results: There was a significant association between the spectral heterogeneity of the near-infrared band and the field-measured spatial turnover of species. The most parsimonious explanatory model for each response variable included both field-measured and satellite-generated explanatory variables. The models explained 30-35% of the variation in species diversity (total richness 36%, mean richness 31%, species turnover 33%). Conclusions: High spatial resolution satellite data are capable of supplying fine-scale habitat information that is relevant for the monitoring and conservation management of fine-scale plant diversity in semi-natural grasslands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperate semi-natural grasslands are characterized by high levels of species diversity and have a high conservation value. Plant species diversity in grazed semi-natural grasslands is known to be influenced by management intensity and habitat connectivity. Both grazing pressure and between-patch connectivity are expected to depend on the movement patterns of livestock in the landscape. The present study examines associations between fine-scale (within 0·25 m plots) plant species diversity in semi-natural grasslands and present grazing intensity, present and historical habitat connectivity, and the (present and historical) distance from the nearest village. The study area was a local (4·5 × 4·5 km) agricultural landscape on the island of Öland, Sweden. Fine-scale (Shannon) diversity and species richness were unimodally associated with the distance from the nearest historical ( 1800) village, with maximum values c. 1-1·5 km from villages. These associations suggest that the distance from historical villages behaves as an integrated descriptor of variation in long-term management intensity (livestock movements) and reflects aspects of the functional connectivity between plant communities in semi-natural grasslands. Groups of variables characterizing village distances, grazing pressure and habitat connectivity had overlapping effects on species diversity. Grazing intensity had the largest individual impact on diversity, followed by the distance from the nearest historical village and present-day habitat connectivity. Synthesis and applications. The study indicates the importance of viewing grassland diversity in the context of local landscape history. Unimodal associations between fine-scale plant species diversity and the distance from the nearest village in 1800 suggest that information on the proximity to villages in the historical landscape has a potential use in conservation planning - as an indicator of variation in long-term grassland management intensity. Conservation programmes for grazed temperate grasslands should (1) give priority to old grasslands with an uninterrupted history of grazing management, (2) ensure a moderate grazing intensity, (3) avoid overgrazing and/or long breaks in the continuity of grazing management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The northern limits of temperate broadleaved species in Fennoscanndia are controlled by their requirements for summer warmth for successful regeneration and growth as well as by the detrimental effects of winter cold on plant tissue. However, occurrences of meteorological conditions with detrimental effects on individual species are rare events rather than a reflection of average conditions. We explore the effect of changes in inter-annual temperature variability on the abundances of the tree species Tilia cordata, Quercus robur and Ulmus glabra near their distribution limits using a process-based model of ecosystem dynamics. Location A site in central Sweden and a site in southern Finland were used as examples for the ecotone between boreal and temperate forests in Fennoscandia. The Finnish site was selected because of the availability of varve-thickness data. Methods The dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS was run with four scenarios of inter-annual temperature forcing for the last 10,000 years. In one scenario the variability in the thickness of summer and winter varves from the annually laminated lake in Finland was used as a proxy for past inter-annual temperature variability. Two scenarios were devised to explore systematically the effect of stepwise changes in the variance and shape parameter of a probability distribution. All variability scenarios were run both with and without the long-term trend in Holocene temperature change predicted by an atmospheric general circulation model. Results Directional changes in inter-annual temperature variability have significant effects on simulated tree distribution limits through time. Variations in inter-annual temperature variability alone are shown to alter vegetation composition by magnitudes similar to the magnitude of changes driven by variation in mean temperatures. Main conclusions The varve data indicate that inter-annual climate variability has changed in the past. The model results show that past changes in species abundance can be explained by changes in the inter-annual variability of climate parameters as well as by mean climate. Because inter-annual climatic variability is predicted to change in the future, this component of climate change should be taken into account both when making projections of future plant distributions and when interpreting vegetation history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st century. The economy-oriented A2 emission scenario would lead to higher NPP and stronger carbon sinks according to the simulations than the environment-oriented B2 scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of species extinction risk under climate change are generally based on differences in present and future climatically suitable areas. However, the locations of potentially suitable future environments (affecting establishment success), and the degree of climatic suitability in already occupied and new locations (affecting population viability) may be equally important determinants of risk. A species considered to be at low risk because its future distribution is predicted to be large, may actually be at high risk if these areas are out of reach, given the species' dispersal and migration rates or if all future suitable locations are only marginally suitable and the species is unlikely to build viable populations in competition with other species. Using bioclimatic models of 17 representative European woody species, we expand on current ways of risk assessment and suggest additional measures based on (a) the distance between presently occupied areas and areas predicted to be climatically suitable in the future and (b) the degree of change in climatic suitability in presently occupied and unoccupied locations. Species of boreal and temperate deciduous forests are predicted to face higher risk from loss of climatically suitable area than species from warmer and drier parts of Europe by 2095 using both the moderate B1 and the severe A1FI emission scenario. However, the average distance from currently occupied locations to areas predicted suitable in the future is generally shorter for boreal species than for southern species. Areas currently occupied will become more suitable for boreal and temperate species than for Mediterranean species whereas new suitable areas outside a species' current range are expected to show greater increases in suitability for Mediterranean species than for boreal and temperate species. Such additional risk measures can be easily derived and should give a more comprehensive picture of the risk species are likely to face under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climate is an important determinant of species distributions. We assess different aspects of risk arising from future climate change by quantifying changes in the spatial distribution of future climatic conditions compared with the recent past. Location Europe. Methods A 10′ × 10′ resolution gridded data set of five climate variables was used to calculate expected changes to the area, distance and direction of 1931–60 climatic conditions under the HadCM3 climate model for four future climate scenarios based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions (SRES scenarios). Three levels of tolerance ranges determined the thresholds for which future conditions are considered analogous to 1931–60 (pre-warming) conditions. Results For many parts of Europe, areas with pre-warming analogous climate conditions will be smaller and further away in the future than they are now. For any location in Europe, areas with pre-warming analogous mean annual temperature conditions will, on average, be reduced between 23.7% (B1 scenario) and 49.7% (A1FI scenario) by 2100 when assuming a medium tolerance range. The mean distance to these areas will, on average, increase between 272 km (B1) and 645 km (A1FI). These changes are more pronounced for temperature than for water availability variables and also for narrow tolerance ranges compared to wide tolerance ranges. Using a combined measure of both temperature and precipitation variables, areas with prewarming analogous conditions are predicted to be in a more northeasterly direction in the future, but there are considerable regional differences within Europe. Main conclusions The results suggest that, for some parts of Europe, the loss of area with any suitable climatic conditions represents the greatest risk to biodiversity, but in other regions the distances that species may have to move to reach suitable climatic conditions may be a greater problem. Quantifying the distance and direction in analyses of change of climatically suitable areas can add additional information for climate change risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity. Atlantic areas provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance of the group. Our results illustrate the fact that both species-specific predictions and functional patterns should be examined separately in order to assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and gain insights into future ecosystem functioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models based on generalized plant physiological theory represent a promising approach for describing vegetation responses to environmental drivers on large scales but must be tested for their ability to reproduce features of real vegetation. We tested the capability of a generalized vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) to simulate vegetation structural and compositional dynamics under various disturbance regimes at the transition between prairie, northern hardwoods, and boreal forest in the Great Lakes region of the United States. LPJ-GUESS combines detailed representations of population dynamics as commonly used in forest gap models with the same mechanistic representations of plant physiological processes as adopted by a dynamic global vegetation model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena [LPJ] model), which has been validated from the stand to the global scale. The model does not require site-specific calibration. The required input data are information on climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and soil texture class, as well as information on generally recognized species traits (broad-leaved vs. needle-leaved, general climatic range, two fire- resistance classes, shade-tolerance class, and maximum longevity). Model predictions correspond closely to observed patterns of vegetation dynamics and standing biomass at an old-growth eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis)/hardwood forest (Sylvania Wilderness, Michigan), an old-growth forest remnant from the "Great Lakes Pines Forest" (Itasca State Park, Minnesota), and a presettlement savanna (Cedar Creek Natural History Area, Minnesota). At all three sites, disturbance (wind or fire) strongly controls species composition and stand biomass. The model could be used to simulate vegetation dynamics on a regional basis or under past or future climates and atmospheric CO2 levels, without a need for reparameterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract1 Advances in dynamic ecosystem modelling have made a number of different approaches to vegetation dynamics possible. Here we compare two models representing contrasting degrees of abstraction of the processes governing dynamics in real vegetation. 2 Model (a) (GUESS) simulates explicitly growth and competition among individual plants. Differences in crown structure (height, depth, area and LAI) influence relative light uptake by neighbours. Assimilated carbon is allocated individually by each plant to its leaf, fine root and sapwood tissues. Carbon allocation and turnover of sapwood to heartwood in turn govern height and diameter growth. 3 Model (b) (LPJ) incorporates a ‘dynamic global vegetation model’ (DGVM) architecture, simulating growth of populations of plant functional types (PFTs) over a grid cell, integrating individual-level processes over the proportional area (foliar projective cover, FPC) occupied by each PFT. Individual plants are not simulated, but are replaced by explicit parameterizations of their growth and interactions. 4 The models are identical in their representation of core physiological and biogeochemical processes. Both also use the same set of PFTs, corresponding to the major woody plant groups in Europe, plus a grass type. 5 When applied at a range of locations, broadly spanning climatic variation within Europe, both models successfully predicted PFT composition and succession within modern natural vegetation. However, the individual-based model performed better in areas where deciduous and evergreen types coincide, and in areas subject to pronounced seasonal water deficits, which would tend to favour grasses over drought-intolerant trees. 6 Differences in model performance could be traced to their treatment of individual-level processes, in particular light competition and stress-induced mortality. 7 Our results suggest that an explicit individual-based approach to vegetation dynamics may be an advantage in modelling of ecosystem structure and function at the resolution required for regional- to continental-scale studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioclimatic indices for use in studies of ecosystem function, species distribution, and vegetation dynamics under changing climate scenarios depend on estimates of surface fluxes and other quantities, such as radiation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture, for which direct observations are sparse. These quantities can be derived indirectly from meteorological variables, such as near-surface air temperature, precipitation and cloudiness. Here we present a consolidated set of simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH) allowing robust approximations of key quantities at ecologically relevant timescales. We specify equations, derivations, simplifications, and assumptions for the estimation of daily and monthly quantities of top-of-the-atmosphere solar radiation, net surface radiation, photosynthetic photon flux density, evapotranspiration (potential, equilibrium, and actual), condensation, soil moisture, and runoff, based on analysis of their relationship to fundamental climatic drivers. The climatic drivers include a minimum of three meteorological inputs: precipitation, air temperature, and fraction of bright sunshine hours. Indices, such as the moisture index, the climatic water deficit, and the Priestley-Taylor coefficient, are also defined. The SPLASH code is transcribed in C++, FORTRAN, Python, and R. A total of 1 year of results are presented at the local and global scales to exemplify the spatiotemporal patterns of daily and monthly model outputs along with comparisons to other model results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Net primary production (NPP) is the difference in gross photosynthetic assimilation of carbon and carbon loss due to autotrophic respiration, and is an important ecosystem variable that facilitates understanding of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and ecosystem services. The aim of this study is to rapidly estimate the NPP of European potential natural vegetation for current and future climate and carbon-dioxide scenarios (CO 2 ). A NPP meta-model was developed and evaluated based on the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. LPJ-GUESS was used to simulate NPP under current and future climate change as well as CO 2 scenarios. The NPP dataset produced from these simulations was used to determine the empirical relationships between NPP and driving climate variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, summer precipitation, winter precipitation) along with CO 2 concentration. The climate variables’ relationships were combined in a synergistic function including CO 2 relationships to estimate NPP. The meta-model was compared with randomly chosen NPP data originated from LPJ-GUESS. Furthermore, the meta-model's performance was evaluated on the European level with LPJ-GUESS simulations. The meta-model performed reasonably well with regard to estimating total NPP while performances for species-specific NPP were poor. For total NPP, the meta-model generated an agreement of R 2 = 0.68 and RMSE = 0.06 at CO 2 = 350 ppm in comparison to LPJ-GUESS simulations. The consideration of all CO 2 concentration scenarios yielded R 2 = 0.62 and RMSE = 0.08. A rapid synergistic approach is suggested that enables interactions between climate variables and their intra-annual variability to estimate NPP. This is a useful alternative to traditional empirical models that control NPP with the most limiting climate variable. The meta-model performed reasonably well for estimating total NPP for future climate change and CO 2 scenarios. However, species-specific NPP estimates were unsatisfactory, implying that the synergistic approach cannot account for species specific dynamics. Comparison between the meta-model and LPJ-GUESS at the European scale showed that additional environmental variables (e.g. solar radiation) would be necessary to improve the meta-model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Vegetation dynamics and the competitive interactions involved are assumed to restrict the ability of species to migrate. But in most migration modelling approaches disturbance-driven succession and competition processes are reduced to simple assumptions or are even missing. The aim of this study was to test a combination of a migration model and a dynamic vegetation model to estimate the migration of tree species controlled by climate, environment and local species dynamics such as succession and competition. Location Europe. Methods To estimate the effect of vegetation dynamics on the migration of European beech and Norway spruce, we developed a post-process migration tool ( LPJ-CATS). This tool integrates outputs of the migration model CATS and the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. The model LPJ-CATS relies on a linear dependency between the dispersal kernel and migration rate and is based on the assumption that competition reduces fecundity. Results Simulating potential migration rates with the CATS model, which does not account for competition and disturbance, resulted in mean Holocene migration rates of 435 ± 55 and 330 ± 95 m year−1 for the two species Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica, respectively. With LPJ-CATS, these mean migration rates were reduced to 250 ± 75 and 170 ± 60 m year−1 for spruce and beech, respectively. Moreover, LPJ-CATS simulated migration pathways of these two species that generally comply well with those documented in the palaeo-records. Main conclusions Our 'hybrid' modelling approach allowed for the simulation of generally realistic Holocene migration rates and pathways of the two study species on a continental scale. It suggests that competition can considerably modify spread rates, but also the magnitude of its effect depends on how close climate conditions are to the niche requirements of a particular species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering both within- and between-species functional diversities in plant communities has been recently suggested as a way to understand potential assembly mechanisms that control species coexistence. In particular, relating variations in species richness to within- and between-species functional diversities can provide a useful framework for evaluating the importance of alternative community assembly theories. In addition, little is known about whether the relationship between species richness and functional diversity components arises from direct or indirect effects of the abiotic environment., We tested the relationship between functional diversity and species richness by disentangling functional diversity components into within-species, between-species and total functional diversities and by considering potential direct and indirect effects of the abiotic conditions. Multi- and single-trait approaches were applied using three key plant functional traits (height, specific leaf area ( SLA), LDMC). Traits were measured on species coexisting across sixteen species-rich limestone grasslands. Direct and indirect effects of the abiotic conditions were evaluated using multiple soil properties including heterogeneity in soil depths., The within-species functional diversity ranged between 13.5% and 33.6% of the total functional diversity. Within-species diversity was the main functional component linked to variations in species richness, despite the within-species functional diversity being lower than between-species functional diversity. Environmental soil properties had a direct effect on species richness but did not affect functional diversity components., Synthesis: Our results provide evidence that increasing the trait overlap between species, due to an increase in within-species diversity, may relate to greater species coexistence. Disentangling multiple functional diversity components indicated that there may be equalizing mechanisms that act as potential drivers of species coexistence. In addition, it suggests the possibility that this approach may provide a better understanding of the processes involved in the structure of plant communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To reconstruct spatial and temporal patterns of European fire activity during the Holocene and to explore their potential drivers, by relating biomass burning to simulated biotic and abiotic parameters. Location Europe. Methods Holocene fire activity was investigated based on 156 sedimentary charcoal records from lakes and peat bogs across Europe. Charcoal data covering the last 9000 years were statistically compared with palaeoclimate data derived from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology/ University of Wisconsin-Madison Earth System Model, with vegetation and fire indices simulated with the dynamic vegetation model lpj- guess and with two independent scenarios of past anthropogenic land-cover change. Results The combined sedimentary charcoal records suggest that there was little fire activity during the early and the middle Holocene compared with recent millennia. A progressive increase in fire frequency began around 3500 cal. yr bp and continues into the late Holocene. Biomass burning rose sharply from 250 cal. yr bp onwards, reaching a maximum during the early Industrial Era and then declining abruptly. When considering the whole Holocene, the long-term control of fire is best explained by anthropogenic land-cover change, litter availability and temperature-related parameters. Main conclusions While the general patterns found across Europe suggest the primary role of vegetation, precipitation and temperature-related parameters in explaining fire dynamics during the early Holocene, the increase in fire activity observed in the mid-late Holocene is mainly related to anthropogenic land-cover changes, followed by vegetation and temperature-related parameters. The 20th-century decline in biomass burning seems to be due to increased landscape fragmentation and active fire suppression policies. Our hypothesis that human activities played a primary role in Holocene biomass burning across Europe could be tested by improved palaeoclimate reconstructions and more refined representations of anthropogenic fires in climate and vegetation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanisms driving nonrandom assembly patterns in plant communities have long been of interest in ecological research. Competing ecological theories predict that coexisting species may either be more functionally dissimilar than expected by chance (with functional 'divergence' mainly reflecting niche differentiation) or be functionally more similar than expected (with functional 'convergence' reflecting either the outcome of environmental filtering or weaker-competitor exclusion effects). Assembly patterns are usually assessed at a single scale and disturbance regime, whereas considering different spatial scales and disturbance regimes may clarify the underlying assembly mechanisms., We tested the prediction that convergence and divergence are scale- and disturbance- dependent in grazed and abandoned species-rich dry grasslands within a 22 km2 landscape in south-eastern Sweden. Convergence and divergence were tested for plant species' traits and phylogenetic relationships at three nested spatial scales: within 412 plots (50 × 50 cm, divided into 10 × 10 cm subplots), within 117 grassland patches (from 0.02 to 11.63 ha) and within the whole landscape (across patches)., At the finest scale (10 × 10 cm subplots within plots), coexisting species were more different than expected by chance (divergence), both functionally and phylogenetically, suggesting niche differentiation. At the intermediate scale (50 × 50 cm plots within patches), coexisting species showed convergence, suggesting environmental filtering. No significant deviations from random expectations were detected at the broadest scale (patches within the 22 km2 landscape) - suggesting the prevalence of dispersal limitation at this scale. The fact that nonrandom patterns were particularly evident under grazed conditions is consistent with the prediction that assembly patterns are disturbance dependent., Synthesis. This study shows that multiple trait-based assembly processes operate simultaneously in species-rich communities, across spatial scales and disturbance regimes. The results support earlier theoretical predictions that divergence between coexisting species may be an important driver of community assembly, particularly at finer spatial scales, where species compete for the same local resources. In contrast, environmental filtering is expected at broader spatial scales, where species growing in particular environmental conditions share traits that are adaptive under those conditions. Within given habitat types, dispersal limitation may, however, override environmental filtering at increasing spatial scales of observation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in “normal” and “hosing” experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The “hosing” experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the “normal” experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Questions To what extent is species richness in semi-natural grasslands related to local environmental factors and (present/past) surrounding landscape structure? Do responses of species richness depend on degree of habitat specialization (specialists vs generalists) and/or scale of the study? Location Öland, Sweden. Methods Richness of herbaceous vascular plants (subdivided into richness of grassland specialists and generalists) was recorded within 50 × 50 cm plots and 0.1-4.8 ha grassland polygons. Generalized linear models and hierarchical partitioning were used to identify local factors (habitat area and heterogeneity, grazing intensity, habitat continuity) and landscape factors (proportion of surrounding grassland in 2004, 1938 and 1800, and landscape diversity in 2004) associated with the richness estimates. Results At the polygon scale, both specialist and generalist richness was positively associated with local habitat area and heterogeneity and, independently of area and heterogeneity, with grazing intensity, habitat continuity and amount of surrounding grassland in 1800. At the plot scale, specialist species richness was positively associated with habitat heterogeneity, amount of surrounding grassland in 2004 and landscape diversity. Plot-scale generalist richness was negatively associated with surrounding grassland in 1938 and positively associated with local grazing intensity. Conclusions Because both habitat specialization and study scale influence conclusions about relationships between species richness and local and landscape factors, the study highlights the need to consider species diversity at multiple spatial scales when making decisions about grassland management. Large-scale (polygon) species richness is influenced by immigration processes, with both specialists and generalists accumulating in old grasslands over centuries of grazing management. Habitat heterogeneity increased specialist species richness at both scales, suggesting that management policies should favour maintenance of a heterogeneous mosaic of open areas, trees and shrubs in temperate grazed grasslands. Although grassland specialists are sensitive to grassland isolation, in extensively managed landscapes with high landscape diversity input of grassland species from the landscape matrix may buffer negative effects of habitat fragmentation on grassland communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim This paper describes a set of integrative scenarios developed in the ALARM (Assessing LArge-scale environmental Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods) project. The ultimate aim of ALARM was to develop and test methods and protocols for the assessment of large-scale environmental risks to biodiversity and to evaluate mitigation options. Scenarios provide a tool for exploring such risks and the policy options to mitigate them; therefore they play a central role within the ALARM project. Methods Three integrative scenarios (liberalization, business as might be usual, sustainability) were developed and illustrated using the econometric model described in a subsequent paper. They are contextualized with projections from climate models and provide the input for model-based assessments of biodiversity trends. Additionally, three shock scenarios were developed (Gulf Stream collapse, peak oil, pandemic) to demonstrate the limits of linear extrapolation. As these extend beyond model capabilities, they are discussed semi-quantitatively based on modelling insights. Results Although the policy impacts on biodiversity are different for different pressures, biomes and species groups, some general trends could be identified. An extension of current EU policies will act as a brake on current trends by slowing down the loss of biodiversity in many cases and in most biomes, but it will be capable of neither halting nor of reversing the loss. Liberalization has the effect of accelerating biodiversity loss across the board, with few exceptions. A coherent sustainability scenario is clearly the most effective at preserving biodiversity, but the variant tested here still does not halt losses in all cases. Main conclusions Current EU policies for protecting biodiversity appear to be insufficient to reverse ongoing losses. Coherent sustainability strategies are effective at conserving biodiversity, but in order to assess losses and then reverse them, measures would need to be introduced that extend beyond the steps tested in the ALARM sustainability scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim To assess the extent to which climate change might cause changes in potential natural vegetation (PNV) across Europe. Location Europe. Method We parameterized a generalized dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) for the most common European tree species, and, for the first time, modelled large-scale vegetation dynamics using a process-based model explicitly representing tree species, age cohorts, gap dynamics and biogeochemical cycles in a single framework. For projections, the model was driven with climate scenario data from two atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), downscaled to 10 × 10′ spatial resolution ( c. 18.5 × 12 km at 50° N). Results At a general level, modelled present-day PNV corresponded better with an expert reconstruction of the PNV than most earlier plant functional type (PFT)-based simulations, but at a finer scale the model and the expert map showed substantial discrepancies in some areas. Simulations until 2085 showed considerable successional shifts in vegetation types in most areas: 31-42% of the total area of Europe was projected to be covered by a different vegetation type by the year 2085. In the long term, equilibrium changes are substantially larger: simulations with one climate scenario suggest that 76-80% of the European land surface could exist within another PNV if climate was stabilized by the end of the century and vegetation had unlimited time to achieve equilibrium with the new climate. 'Hotspots' of change include arctic and alpine ecosystems, where trees replace tundra in the model, and the transition zone between temperate broad-leaved and boreal conifer forest. In southern Europe, the model projected widespread shifts from forest to shrublands as a result of drought. Main conclusions The model presents a considerable advance in modelling dynamic changes in natural vegetation across Europe. Climate change might cause substantial changes in PNV across Europe, which should be considered in the management of reserves and forestry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global change may substantially affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning but little is known about its effects on essential biotic interactions. Since different environmental drivers rarely act in isolation it is important to consider interactive effects. Here, we focus on how two key drivers of anthropogenic environmental change, climate change and the introduction of alien species, affect plant-pollinator interactions. Based on a literature survey we identify climatically sensitive aspects of species interactions, assess potential effects of climate change on these mechanisms, and derive hypotheses that may form the basis of future research. We find that both climate change and alien species will ultimately lead to the creation of novel communities. In these communities certain interactions may no longer occur while there will also be potential for the emergence of new relationships. Alien species can both partly compensate for the often negative effects of climate change but also amplify them in some cases. Since potential positive effects are often restricted to generalist interactions among species, climate change and alien species in combination can result in significant threats to more specialist interactions involving native species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In order to investigate the potential role of vegetation changes in megafaunal extinctions during the later part of the last glacial stage and early Holocene (42–10 ka BP), the palaeovegetation of northern Eurasia and Alaska was simulated using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model. Palaeoclimatic driving data were derived from simulations made for 22 time slices using the Hadley Centre Unified Model. Modelled annual net primary productivity (aNPP) of a series of plant functional types (PFTs) is mapped for selected time slices and summarised for major geographical regions for all time slices. Strong canonical correlations are demonstrated between model outputs and pollen data compiled for the same period and region. Simulated aNPP values, especially for tree PFTs and for a mesophilous herb PFT, provide evidence of the structure and productivity of last glacial vegetation. The mesophilous herb PFT aNPP is higher in many areas during the glacial than at present or during the early Holocene. Glacial stage vegetation, whilst open and largely treeless in much of Europe, thus had a higher capacity to support large vertebrate herbivore populations than did early Holocene vegetation. A marked and rapid decrease in aNPP of mesophilous herbs began shortly after the Last Glacial Maximum, especially in western Eurasia. This is likely implicated in extinction of several large herbivorous mammals during the latter part of the glacial stage and the transition to the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate reconstructions from data sensitive to past climates provide estimates of what these climates were like. Comparing these reconstructions with simulations from climate models allows to validate the models used for future climate prediction. It has been shown that for fossil pollen data, gaining estimates by inverting a vegetation model allows inclusion of past changes in carbon dioxide values. As a new generation of dynamic vegetation model is available we have developed an inversion method for one model, LPJ-GUESS. When this novel method is used with high-resolution sediment it allows us to bypass the classic assumptions of (1) climate and pollen independence between samples and (2) equilibrium between the vegetation, represented as pollen, and climate. Our dynamic inversion method is based on a statistical model to describe the links among climate, simulated vegetation and pollen samples. The inversion is realised thanks to a particle filter algorithm. We perform a validation on 30 modern European sites and then apply the method to the sediment core of Meerfelder Maar (Germany), which covers the Holocene at a temporal resolution of approximately one sample per 30 years. We demonstrate that reconstructed temperatures are constrained. The reconstructed precipitation is less well constrained, due to the dimension considered (one precipitation by season), and the low sensitivity of LPJ-GUESS to precipitation changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and biological invasions are key processes affecting global biodiversity, yet their effects have usually been considered separately. Here, we emphasise that global warming has enabled alien species to expand into regions in which they previously could not survive and reproduce. Based on a review of climate-mediated biological invasions of plants, invertebrates, fishes and birds, we discuss the ways in which climate change influences biological invasions. We emphasise the role of alien species in a more dynamic context of shifting species’ ranges and changing communities. Under these circumstances, management practices regarding the occurrence of ‘new’ species could range from complete eradication to tolerance and even consideration of the ‘new’ species as an enrichment of local biodiversity and key elements to maintain ecosystem services. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Aim To assess whether the water availability measures commonly used in species distribution models might be misleading because they do not account for the hydrological effects of changes in vegetation structure and functioning. Location Europe. Methods We compared different methods for estimating water availability in species distribution models with the soil water content predicted by a process-based ecosystem model. The latter also accounted for the hydrological effects of dynamic changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including potential physiological effects of increasing CO2. Results All proxies showed similar patterns of water availability across Europe for current climate, but when projected into the future, the changes in the simpler water availability measures showed no correlation with those projected by the more complex ecosystem model, even if CO2 effects were switched off. Main conclusions Results from species distribution modelling studies concerning future changes in species ranges and biodiversity should be interpreted with caution, and more process-based representations of the water balance of terrestrial ecosystems should be considered within these models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on ecosystem services has grown rapidly over the last decade. Two conceptual frameworks have been published to guide ecological assessments of organisms that deliver services--the concepts of service-providing units (SPUs) and ecosystem service providers (ESPs). Here, we unite these frameworks and present an SPU-ESP continuum that offers a coherent conceptual approach for synthesizing the latest developments in ecosystem service research, and can direct future studies at all levels of organization. In particular, we show how the service-provider concept can be applied at the population, functional group, and community levels. We strongly emphasize the need to identify and quantify the organisms and their characteristics (e.g., functional traits) that provide services, and to assess service provision relative to the demands of human beneficiaries. We use key examples from the literature to illustrate the new approach and to highlight gaps in knowledge, particularly in relation to the impact of species interactions and ecosystem dynamics on service provision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Dynamic vegetation models are useful tools for analysing terrestrial ecosystem processes and their interactions with climate through variations in carbon and water exchange. Long-term changes in structure and composition (vegetation dynamics) caused by altered competitive strength between plant functional types (PFTs) are attracting increasing attention as controls on ecosystem functioning and potential feedbacks to climate. Imperfect process knowledge and limited observational data restrict the possibility to parameterise these processes adequately and potentially contribute to uncertainty in model results. This study addresses uncertainty among parameters scaling vegetation dynamic processes in a process-based ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, designed for regional-scale studies, with the objective to assess the extent to which this uncertainty propagates to additional uncertainty in the tree community structure (in terms of the tree functional types present and their relative abundance) and thus to ecosystem functioning (carbon storage and fluxes). The results clearly indicate that the uncertainties in parameterisation can lead to a shift in competitive balance, most strikingly among deciduous tree PFTs, with dominance of either shade-tolerant or shade-intolerant PFTs being possible, depending on the choice of plausible parameter values. Despite this uncertainty, our results indicate that the resulting effect on ecosystem functioning is low. Since the vegetation dynamics in LPJ-GUESS are representative for the more complex Earth system models now being applied within ecosystem and climate research, we assume that our findings will be of general relevance. We suggest that, in terms of carbon storage and fluxes, the heavier parameterisation requirement of the processes involved does not widen the overall uncertainty in model predictions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Results from free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments in temperate climates indicate that the response of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to elevated CO2 might be highly conserved across a broad range of productivities. In this study, we show that the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model reproduces the magnitude of the NPP enhancement at temperate forest FACE experiments. A global application of the model suggests that the response found in the experiments might also be representative of the average response of forests globally. However, the predicted NPP enhancement in tropical forests is more than twice as high as in boreal forests, suggesting that currently available FACE results are not applicable to these ecosystems. The modeled geographic pattern is to a large extent driven by the temperature dependence of the relative affinities of the primary assimilation enzyme (Rubisco) for CO2 and O2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species’ range shifts, changes in phenology and species’ extinctions, accurate projections of species’ responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species’ responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species’ distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the “trailing edge” of shifting populations, species’ interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species’ distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species’ migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species’ distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

1. We investigated the potential drivers of Holocene vegetation changes recorded at four Scandinavian pollen sites, two in Sweden and two in Finland, at a time when they were largely free of anthropogenic influence. 2. We used the generalized dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS forced with climate anomaly output from an atmospheric general circulation model to simulate tree species dynamics from 10 000 years ago to the present. The model results were compared to high-resolution pollen accumulation rates gathered at the sites. 3. Our results indicate that both the observed northern distributional limits of temperate trees, and the limits of Pinus sylvestris and Alnus incana at the tree line, are a result of millennial variations in summer and winter temperatures. The simulation of several distinct trends in species occurrence observed in the pollen record indicates that a time lag due to the slow spreading of species need not be invoked for most species. 4. Sensitivity studies indicate that competition, natural disturbance and the magnitude of interannual variability play key roles in determining the biomass, establishment and even the presence of species near their bioclimatic limits. However, neither disturbance due to fire nor limits on establishment due to drought were likely to have been major determinants of the observed trends on the timescales considered. 5. We were unable to limit the modelled occurrence of Picea abies at the study sites to the periods at which it was observed in the pollen records, indicating that we have still not completely understood the driving or limiting factors for Holocene changes in Picea abies abundance. 6. Synthesis. This study shows that by combining quantitative vegetation reconstructions with a modern, process-based dynamic vegetation model, we may gain new insights into the potential biotic and abiotic drivers of Holocene vegetation dynamics, and their relative importance. This knowledge will be crucial in enabling us to assess more confidently the response of northern European vegetation to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Many species are currently expanding their ranges in response to climate change, but the mechanisms underlying these range expansions are in many cases poorly understood. In this paper we explore potential climatic factors governing the recent establishment of new palm populations far to the north of any other viable palm population in the world. Location Southern Switzerland, Europe, Asia and the world. Methods We identified ecological threshold values for the target species, Trachycarpus fortunei, based on gridded climate data, altitude and distributional records from the native range and applied them to the introduced range using local field monitoring and measured meteorological data as well as a bioclimatic model. Results We identified a strong relationship between minimum winter temperatures, influenced by growing season length and the distribution of the palm in its native range. Recent climate change strongly coincides with the palm's recent spread into southern Switzerland, which is in concert with the expansion of the global range of palms across various continents. Main conclusions Our results strongly suggest that the expansion of palms into (semi-)natural forests is driven by changes in winter temperature and growing season length and not by delayed population expansion. This implies that this rapid expansion is likely to continue in the future under a warming climate. Palms in general, and T. fortunei in particular, are significant bioindicators across continents for present-day climate change and reflect a global signal towards warmer conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect together with the direct effect of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation growth are expected to produce changes in the cycling of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. Impacts will vary across Europe, and regional-scale studies are needed to resolve this variability. In this study, we used the LPJ-GUESS ecosystem model driven by a suite of regional climate model (RCM) scenarios from the European Union (EU) project PRUDENCE to estimate climate impacts on carbon cycling across Europe. We identified similarities and discrepancies in simulated climate impacts across scenarios, particularly analyzing the uncertainties arising from the range of climate models and emissions scenarios considered. Our results suggest that net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) will generally increase throughout Europe, but with considerable variation between European subregions. The smallest NPP increases, and in some cases decreases, occurred in the Mediterranean, where many ecosystems switched from sinks to sources of carbon by 2100, mainly as a result of deteriorating water balance. Over the period 1991–2100, modeled climate change impacts on the European carbon balance ranged from a sink of 11. 6 Gt C to a source of 3. 3 Gt C, the average annual sink corresponding with 1. 85% of the current EU anthropogenic emissions. Projected changes in carbon balance were more dependent on the choice of the general circulation model (GCM) providing boundary conditions to the RCM than the choice of RCM or the level of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Understanding the driving forces and mechanisms of changes in past plant distribution and abundance will help assess the biological consequences of future climate change scenarios. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether modelled patterns of climate parameters 6000 years ago can account for the European distribution of Fagus sylvatica at that time. Consideration is also given to the role of non-climatic parameters as driving forces of the Holocene spread and population expansion of F. sylvatica. Location Europe. Methods European distributions were simulated using a physiologically-based bioclimatic model (STASH) driven by three different atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs for 6000 years ago. Results The three simulations generally showed F. sylvatica to have potentially been as widespread 6000 years ago as it is today, which gives a profound mismatch with pollen-based reconstructions of the F. sylvatica distribution at that time. The results indicate that drier conditions during the growing season 6000 years ago could have caused a restriction of the range in the south. Poorer growth conditions with consequently reduced competitive ability were modelled for large parts of France. Main conclusions Consideration of the entire European range of F. sylvatica showed that no single driving force could account for the observed distributional limits 6000 years ago, or the pattern of spread during the Holocene. Climatic factors, particularly drought during the growing season, are the likely major determinants of the potential range. Climatic factors are regionally moderated by competition, disturbance effects and the intrinsically slow rate of population increase of F. sylvatica. Dynamic vegetation modelling is needed to account for potentially important competitive interactions and their relationship with changing climate. We identify uncertainties in the climate and pollen data, as well as the bioclimatic model, which suggest that the current study does not identify whether or not climate determined the distribution of F. sylvatica 6000 years ago. Pollen data are better suited for comparison with relative abundance gradients rather than absolute distributional limits. These uncertainties from a study of the past, where we have information about plant distribution and abundance, argue for extreme caution in making forecasts for the future using equilibrium models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic 'envelope' models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modeling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires good understanding of a wide range of methodologies, including the choice of modelling technique, model validation, collinearity, autocorrelation, biased sampling of explanatory variables, scaling and impacts of non-climatic factors. A key challenge for future research is integrating factors such as land cover, direct CO2 effects, biotic interactions and dispersal mechanisms into species-climate models. We conclude that, although bioclimatic envelope models have a number of important advantages, they need to be applied only when users of models have a thorough understanding of their limitations and uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To implement plant hydraulic architecture within the Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ–DGVM), and to test the model against a set of observational data. If the model can reproduce major patterns in vegetation and ecosystem processes, we consider this to be an important linkage between plant physiology and larger-scale ecosystem dynamics. Location The location is global, geographically distributed. Methods A literature review was carried out to derive model formulations and parameter values for representing the hydraulic characteristics of major global plant functional types (PFTs) in a DGVM. After implementing the corresponding formulations within the LPJ–DGVM, present-day model output was compared to observational data. Results The model reproduced observed broad-scale patterns in potential natural vegetation, but it failed to distinguish accurately between different types of grassland and savanna vegetation, possibly related to inadequate model representations of water fluxes in the soil and wildfire effects. Compared to a version of the model using an empirical formulation for calculating plant water supply without considering plant hydraulic architecture, the new formulation improved simulated patterns of vegetation in particular for dry shrublands. Global-scale simulation results for runoff and actual evapotranspiration (AET) corresponded well to available data. The model also successfully reproduced the magnitude and seasonal cycle of AET for most EUROFLUX forests, while modelled variation in NPP across a large number of sites spanning several biomes showed a strong correlation with estimates from field measurements. Main conclusions The model was generally confirmed by comparison to observational data. The novel model representation of water flow within plants makes it possible to resolve mechanistically the effects of hydraulic differences between plant functional groups on vegetation structure, water cycling, and competition. This may be an advantage when predicting ecosystem responses to nonextant climates, in particular in areas dominated by dry shrubland vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Africa is identified by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the least studied continent in terms of ecosystem dynamics and climate variability. The aim of this study was (1) to adapt the Lund-Postdam-Jena-GUESS (LPJ-GUESS) ecological modelling framework to Africa by providing new parameter values for tropical plant functional types (PFT), and (2) to assess the sensitivity of some African biomes to changes in precipitation regime. Location The study area was a representative transect (0–22° N and 7–18° E) through the transition from equatorial evergreen forests to savannas, steppes and desert northwards. The transect showed large latitudinal variation in precipitation (mean rainfall ranged from 50 to 2300 mm year−1). Methods New PFT parameters used to calibrate LPJ-GUESS were based on modern pollen PFTs and remote sensed leaf area index (LAI). The model was validated using independent modern pollen assemblages, LAI and through comparison with White’s modern potential vegetation map. Several scenarios were developed by combining changes in total rainfall amount with variation in the length of the dry season in order to test the sensitivity of African biomes. Results Simulated vegetation compared well to observed data at local and regional scales, in terms of ecosystem functioning (LAI), and composition (pollen and White’s vegetation map). The assessment of the sensitivity of biomes to changes in precipitation showed that none of the ecosystems would shift towards a new type under the range of precipitation increases suggested by the IPCC (increases from 5 to 20%). However, deciduous and semi-deciduous forests may be very sensitive to small reductions in both the amount and seasonality of precipitation. Main conclusions This version of LPJ-GUESS parameterized for Africa simulated correctly the vegetation present over a wide precipitation gradient. The biome sensitivity assessment showed that, compared with savannas and grasslands, closed canopy forests may be more sensitive to change in precipitation regime due to the synergetic effects of changed rainfall amounts and seasonality on vegetation functioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]