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Acute pancreatitis is a disease with a wide spectrum of severity, complications, and outcome with severe life-threatening complications develop in patients leading to high mortality in severe acute pancreatitis. The rationale of this study is to diagnose the severity of acute pancreatitis using a single test ratio, i.e., CRP/albumin ratio which is a combination of markers for systemic inflammation and nutritional status. All those patients with age group 16-80 years who were diagnosed with acute pancreatitis and admitted subsequently to ICU were included. Severe pancreatitis was determined as CT severity score above 7. About 41% patients out of total 225 had severe pancreatitis. CRP/albumin ratio4.35 had a sensitivity of 87% and accuracy of 76% to predict acute severe pancreatitis. Elevated CRP/albumin ratio was also associated with complications like multi-organ failure OR: 2.31 [1.3-4.2], duodenal thickening OR: 2.25 [1.2-4.2], and ascites OR: 2.90 [1.5-5.6]. Although, the severity of this elevation varied with different age groups, such non-invasive and readily available parameters should be relied upon admission to risk stratify the patients suffering from pancreatitis. CRP/albumin ratio has higher sensitivity and negative predictive value to predict severe pancreatitis than CRP alone and hence give additional advantage as a prognostic marker, although Delong's test to compare AUROC was indifferent (P-value: 0.22).

BACKGROUND: Esophageal cancer ranks eighth among the most prevalent cancers globally and is the sixth leading cause of mortality from malignancy worldwide; it is the 7th most prevalent malignancy in males and the 6th most prevalent malignancy in females. In Pakistan, the incidence is 4.1 per 100 000 with the province of Baluchistan having the greatest incidence. OBJECTIVE: Report trends and characteristics of esophageal cancer in Pakistan over the past 10 years. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, retrospective review of medical records. SETTING: Tertiary care hospital. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study included all patients admitted with a diagnosis of esophageal carcinoma with a mass lesion or luminal narrowing. The records were for the period from January 2011 to September 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Gender, histopathological types/differentiation along with clinical/laboratory findings. SAMPLE SIZE: 1009 with a mean (standard deviation) age of 49.3 (14.2) and a median (interquartile range of 50 (22) years (443 males and 566 females with age of 51.0 [20] years and 47.9 [23.8] years, respectively). The male-to-female ratio was 1:1.2. RESULTS: Most patients (82.7%) had squamous cell carcinomas with a male-to-female ratio of 1:2; the remainder had adenocarcinomas with a male-to-female ratio of 4:1 ( P P =.030), lesions were most likely to be ulcerated ( P =.910). Luminal narrowing was slightly more frequent in squamous cell carcinoma ( P =.215), thickening was more prominently circumferential in the adenocarcinomas. In squamous cell carcinoma, the most common variant was moderately differentiated while moderate to poorly differentiated variants were more common in adenocarcinoma. In the survival analysis, squamous cell carcinoma ( P =.014 vs adenocarcinoma), particularly the well-differentiated type ( P =.018 vs other variants), projected a better prognosis. CONCLUSION: Our study reports the most recent trends of esophageal carcinoma in this region. LIMITATIONS: Lack of metastatic workup, TNM staging, and mode of treatment, along with the overlapping pattern of histological variants. CONFLICT OF INTEREST: None.

Background and Objectives: COVID-19 is a global pandemic. In our study, we aimed to utilize the hematological parameters in predicting the prognosis and mortality in COVID-19 patients. Materials and methods: A retrospective, observational study was conducted to include all the admitted patients (n = 191) having COVID-19 Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive, and evaluated those for prognosis and disease outcome by utilizing several biochemical and hematological markers. Results: Amongst the patients admitted in the ward versus in the intensive care unit (ICU), there were significant differences in mean hemoglobin (P = 0.003), total leukocyte count (P = 0.001), absolute neutrophil and lymphocyte counts (P

It is important to promptly assess the severity of appendicitis since late diagnosis can proceed towards perforation, peritonitis and sepsis. The main objective of this study is to decipher the ability of CRP, TLC and neutrophils in acute appendicitis to predict complications and perforation in pediatric age group.This cohort study was conducted in the Pediatric Surgery Department of Liaquat National Hospital, Karachi. It included all the patients diagnosed and operated on for acute appendicitis within the pediatric age group.The median (IQR) age of study population was 9 (7-11) years, the majority of which fell into 6-12 years of age group with 70% males. Histopathology came out positive in 127 individuals. Out of those 127 patients, 45.9% (n = 62) had simple appendicitis and 48.1% (n = 65) had complicated appendicitis (n = 65), while 37 (27.4%) had shown perforation. The majority of individuals had suppurative appendicitis on histopathology (35.6%). On receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, CRP has the highest specificity for complicated appendicitis and the highest positive likelihood ratio for both complicated and perforated appendicitis.CRP was observed in our study to be an independent marker of severity in acute appendicitis.

Introduction Acute pancreatitis is defined as inflammation of the pancreas. The body responds to inflammation by producing excessive neutrophils and causing programmed cell death of lymphocytes. This leads to immunological instability, which increases the severity of the disease and mortality rate. Recent data suggest that markers of systemic inflammation are able to predict the prognosis of various diseases. Our study aims to assess the severity of acute pancreatitis in conjunction with these hematological markers of systemic inflammation. Materials and methods Our study was carried out in the emergency medicine department of a tertiary care hospital among patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. It was a retrospective study done by reviewing the hospital's medical records. Hematological indices such as hemoglobin levels, packed cell volume (PCV), red blood cell (RBC) count, mean corpuscular volume (MCV), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), total leukocyte count (TLC), neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, monocyte count, platelet count, neutrophil to lymphocyte count ratio (NLR), lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR), and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were observed to be associated with severity of pancreatitis. Those with computed tomography (CT) severity score >=7 were termed as severe pancreatitis, while those below 7 were considered mild to moderate. Results A total of 154 patients were included in the final analysis. The mean age of those patients was 48.47 ± 16.71 years. There were 94 male and 60 female patients. There was no difference found among the study groups with respect to mean hemoglobin levels, RBC count, PCV, MCV, MCH, MCHC, lymphocytes, and platelet counts. TLC (p

Unemployment remains a major cause for both developed and developing nations, due to which they lose their financial and economic impact as a whole. Unemployment rate prediction achieved researcher attention from a fast few years. The intention of doing our research is to examine the impact of the coronavirus on the unemployment rate. Accurately predicting the unemployment rate is a stimulating job for policymakers, which plays an imperative role in a country's financial and financial development planning. Classical time series models such as ARIMA models and advanced non‐linear time series methods be previously hired for unemployment rate prediction. It is known to us that mostly these data sets are non‐linear as well as non‐stationary. Consequently, a random error can be produced by a distinct time series prediction model. Our research considers hybrid prediction approaches supported by linear and non‐linear models to preserve forecast the unemployment rates much precisely. These hybrid approaches of the unemployment rate can advance their estimates by reproducing the unemployment ratio irregularity. These models' appliance is exposed to six unemployment rate statistics sets from Europe's selected countries, specifically France, Spain, Belgium, Turkey, Italy and Germany. Among these hybrid models, the hybrid ARIMA‐ARNN forecasting model performed well for France, Belgium, Turkey and Germany, whereas hybrid ARIMA‐SVM performed outclass for Spain and Italy. Furthermore, these models are used for the best future prediction. Results show that the unemployment rate will be higher in the coming years, which is the consequence of the coronavirus, and it will take at least 5 years to overcome the impact of COVID‐19 in these countries.

Background Abdominal trauma and intra-abdominal sepsis are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Microcirculation in the gut is disrupted in hemorrhagic and septic shock leading to tissue hypoxia, and the damaged gut acts as a reservoir rich in inflammatory mediators and provides a continual source of inflammation to the systemic circulation leading to sepsis. Sepsis is defined as the presence (probable or documented) of infection together with a systemic inflammatory response to infection. Blood culture is commonly considered to be the preferred approach for diagnosing sepsis, although it is time-consuming, that is, reports are normally available only after 12-48 hours. Procalcitonin levels (PCT) have recently emerged as a promising biomarker in the diagnosis of sepsis. The aim of the present study is to determine the diagnostic accuracy of PCT levels in predicting sepsis in critically ill trauma patients. Methodology This was designed as a validation study conducted in the Indoor Department of General Surgery, Liaquat National Hospital, Karachi. The sample size was calculated by taking the estimated frequency of sepsis in suspected patients at 62.13%, expected sensitivity of PCT at 70.83%, and specificity at 84.21% and the desired precision level of 12% for sensitivity; the calculated sample size was 96. The non-probability consecutive sampling method was used to recruit participants who were diagnosed with sepsis on clinical assessment. Blood culture samples were sent for the enrolled patients and a final diagnosis was made on the blood culture report. PCT levels were measured in these suspected patients on the same day of sending blood culture. Diagnostic accuracy of PCT size was measured using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. ROC curve was formulated for PCT levels against culture-proven sepsis to determine the ideal cut-off value of PCT levels. Two different cut-offs were determined to obtain the highest sensitivity and highest specificity accordingly. Results A total of 97 individuals met the inclusion criteria with a mean age of 34.89 ± 10.52 years. Mean PCT levels were 0.96 ± 0.59, with a gender predilection towards females (p < 0.001). No age difference was documented among gender (p = 0.655). The mean duration of intensive care unit stay was 11.73 ± 3.56 days. Culture-proven sepsis was identified in 67.0% of the study participants with a higher PCT level (p < 0.001). Among the 52.6% males included in the study, half were reported to have culture-positive sepsis, but among the 47.4% females culture was positive in 87% (p < 0.001). ROC revealed PCT was predictive for culture-positive sepsis at a cut-off value 0.47 ng/mL (p < 0.001), with a sensitivity of 92.3%, specificity of 68.7%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 85.7%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 81.5%. By increasing the cut-off value to 0.90 ng/mL at area under the curve of 0.816, the specificity increased to 81.3% and sensitivity became 66.2%, with a PPV of 87.8% and NPV of 54.2%. Conclusion Our study determined two cut-values for PCT to predict sepsis, one with the highest sensitivity and the other with better specificity. Other than that, higher PCT levels were significant in female trauma patients. We conclude that PCT is a reliable marker for culture-proven diagnosis of sepsis and may aid physicians/surgeons to promptly manage patients accordingly.

Background and objectives Chronic kidney disease (CKD) share a common pathophysiology with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This study aims to identify the lipid derangements in patients of CKD and to associate them with radiological evidence of NAFLD. Material and methods A cross-sectional observational study was performed in a tertiary care hospital, to include all chronic kidney disease patients (n=238) through non-probability consecutive sampling. The criteria for inclusion were baseline estimated Glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) below 60 ml/min/1.73m2 for at least three months and chronic renal parenchymal changes on ultrasound. Two study groups were identified based on ongoing hemodialysis, while two further study groups were identified based on radiological evidence of fatty liver disease. Results The mean age of the study population was 48.52 ± 9.44 years with no difference amongst hemodialysis status, females elder than males (p= 0.027), those with fatty liver were much younger (p=0.014), and the most common age group below 50 years (p=0.005) among the fatty liver group. Radiological evidence of NAFLD was found amongst two-third of the study group with the status of hemodialysis indifferent among the study population (p=0.436). The mean values amongst fatty liver versus non-fatty liver groups revealed high creatinine, alanine transaminase (ALT), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), triglycerides (TG), and very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) in the fatty liver group, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and total cholesterol (TC) were indifferent amongst the groups, while LDL/HDL ratio was higher in the non-fatty liver group. Conclusion A significantly higher HDL was found in fatty liver associated with CKD as compared to the non-fatty liver group.

Background and objectives Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the pathogen responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The disease mainly affects the respiratory system of the patient, in particular, the lungs, which leads to patients presenting with acute respiratory distress syndrome and acute respiratory failure, with 5-15% of patients requiring observation in the intensive care unit (ICU) with respiratory support in the form of ventilation. This study was aimed at identifying the role of biochemical markers in the risk stratification of invasive and non-invasive ventilation of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Materials and methods The study was conducted as a prospective, observational study of all admitted COVID-19 patients. A comparative analysis was performed of the survivors who were on invasive versus (vs) non-invasive ventilation and the non-survivors similarly. After computing the descriptive statistics, a multinomial logistic regression model was applied to obtain an unadjusted odds ratio (OR) at 95% confidence interval (CI), with Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test used to predict the fitness of the data. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were obtained for each of the laboratory investigations predicting survival along with the intensive care stay and invasive ventilation. A log-rank test was carried out to compare the survival distributions. Results A total of 373 included patients in the study had a mean age of 52.78 ± 15.76 years with females younger than males, and indifference amongst invasive vs non-invasively ventilated (p=0.821). Females were slightly more prone to invasive ventilation (p=0.097). Overall, 39% of the subjects did not need respiratory support, while 13% were on a ventilator, 16% on bilevel positive airway pressure/continuous positive airway pressure (BiPAP/CPAP), and 31% on supplemental oxygen therapy. Among the laboratory markers, mean hemoglobin was evidently lower in the invasive group, leukocytosis and thrombocytopenia were present in both invasively ventilated and non-surviving patients, while neutrophilia and lymphocytopenia were statistically indifferent among the mode of ventilation. Elevated urea, creatinine, and sodium were also significantly deranged laboratory markers amongst the invasively ventilated group. C-reactive protein (CRP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were elevated significantly in the invasive group, while serum ferritin was more frequently raised in the non-invasively ventilated group. Procalcitonin (PCT) was significantly associated with invasive ventilation as opposed to the non-invasive group. D-dimer was equally raised in both the groups at admission but significantly elevated in the invasive group at discharge. A multinomial regression model signified D-dimer (OR: 16.301), hypernatremia (OR: 12.738), creatinine (OR: 12.589), urea (OR: 12.576), and LDH (OR: 12.245) most significantly associated with death, while those for invasive ventilation were D-dimer (OR: 8.744), hypernatremia (OR: 4.532), PCT (OR: 3.829), neutrophilia (OR: 3.804), leukocytosis (OR: 3.330), and serum urea (OR: 3.312). Kaplan-Meier curves conclude total leucocyte count (TLC), neutrophils, lymphocytes, urea, creatinine, sodium, CRP, LDH, PCT, and D-dimer all significantly contributing to an early death. Conclusion The most significant marker for mortality was D-dimer, followed by serum sodium, urea/creatinine, LDH, ICU stay, and invasive ventilation.

Background and objective COVID-19 is a highly disseminating viral disease imparted by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), which was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization. In our study, we aimed to describe the clinical characteristics of the first 100 hospitalized patients of confirmed COVID-19 in a developing country. Materials and methods The study included all the admitted patients (n = 100) having COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive, and evaluated clinical profiles and characteristics of the patients linking to disease severity. Results Out of the 100 patients, 67 were in the ward, 33 were in ICU, 78 of them recovered, while 22 deaths reported. The mean age was 52.58 ± 15.68, with most frequent comorbidities are diabetes and hypertension while frequent symptoms are fever and dry cough. Bilateral lower zone patchy infiltrates are frequent chest radiographic findings. Amongst the patients admitted in ICU, there were significant differences in the total leukocyte count (P = 0.001), neutrophils and lymphocytes (P =< 0.001), monocytes (P = 0.027), urea (P =< 0.001), creatinine (P = 0.002), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) increasing with disease severity, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) and lymphocyte-to-C‐reactive protein ratio (LCR) decreasing with mortalities. Gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) followed by aspartate aminotransferase (AST) are frequent hepatic derangements, while C-reactive protein (CRP) levels predicting ICU admission with area under the curve (AUC): 0.806, positive predictive value (PPV): 85.1% and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) predicting mortality with AUC: 0.877, PPV: 97.3%, while NLR (AUC: 0.806, PPV: 95.8%) for mortality and neutrophils (AUC: 0.773, PPV: 87.5%) for ICU patients. Conclusion A number of factors are linked with disease severity and mortality along with dynamic changes of the laboratory investigations during hospital stay affecting prognosis.

Background and objectives Infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are rapidly spreading, posing a serious threat to the health of people worldwide, resulting in the World Health Organization officially declaring it a pandemic. There are several biochemical markers linked with predicting the severity of coronavirus disease. This study aims to identify the most effective predictive biomarker such as C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), procalcitonin (PCT), and D-dimer, among others, in predicting the clinical outcome of the disease. Materials and methods This study was conducted as a retrospective, observational, multi-centric study, including all admitted COVID-19 positive patients only. The disease outcome was followed along with the hospital course of every patient at the time of analysis. Baseline laboratory investigations of all patients were monitored both at admission and discharge. A comparative analysis was done between the survivors (n=263) and non-survivors (n=101). Statistical analysis was conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows Version 25 (Armonk, NY: IBM Corp.). Results Of 364 patients, 65.7% were in the isolation ward, and 34.3% were in the intensive care unit; 72.3% of patients survived, while 27.7% of patients died. The mean age of the study population was 52.6 ± 15.8 years with female patients significantly younger than male patients (p=0.001) and 50 to 75 years being the most common age group (p=0.121). Among the survivors versus non-survivors of COVID-19, there were significant differences in total leukocyte count (p

Hepatocellular carcinoma is ranked as the sixth most common cancer globally. It also accounts for the second leading determinant of cancer-related mortalities worldwide. In the present day, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the treatment modality of preference for high burden hepatocellular carcinoma. Our study aims to report the efficacy of TACE and alterations in laboratory parameters in patients of hepatocellular carcinoma before and after undergoing TACE in lieu with size >3 cm or 3cm tumor size (p=0.050). After TACE, bilirubin levels were remarkably improved in 3cm tumor size. Serum creatinine worsened in 3 cm tumor size, and SGPT was indifferent in 3cm tumor size. Mean meld score was found improved in both the study groups however, greater improvements were seen in >3cm tumor size group. Downstaging of child-pugh classes was statistically significant in both the study groups (p