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4. Sampling for disease surveillance: assessing effects on blue‐winged teal survival and recovery.

Author

Swift, Rose J., Arnold, Todd W., Carter, Deborah L., Link, Paul, Poulson, Rebecca L., Stallknecht, David E., and Pearse, Aaron T.

Subjects
*PUBLIC health surveillance, *AVIAN influenza A virus, *AVIAN influenza, *BIRD populations, *STATISTICAL power analysis, *POULTRY farms
Abstract

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in wild animals highlight the need for disease surveillance in wild birds to improve our understanding of their role as reservoirs and dispersers, and potential threats to domestic poultry and wild bird populations. Surveillance for avian influenza varies in its approach, objectives, and coordination with other monitoring efforts. For waterfowl, a common host to avian influenza viruses, banding represents a concerted effort of capturing and marking thousands of individuals annually to estimate survival and harvest rates, but users of these data have generally taken a conservative approach to remove any banded birds from analyses that had a sample taken for disease surveillance during capture. We tested for differences in survival and encounter probabilities of blue‐winged teal (Spatula discors) marked (n = 21,702 teal) and sampled for disease surveillance (n = 4,216) during the nonbreeding season in Louisiana, USA, from 2016 to 2023. Although we found no consistent effect of collecting biological samples on survival probability, including an additional test showing no detectable effects of sampling for disease surveillance with oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs versus sampling with swabs and a syringe‐drawn blood sample, wide 95% credible intervals on the posterior survival estimates (mean 0.36 difference between upper and lower values across all year‐sex‐sampling groups; 0.44 for sampling type groups) indicated low statistical power to detect an effect. Seber recovery probability during the first interval following sampling was lower among birds sampled using swabs only, but we assume this stems from low sample sizes rather than an effect of collecting biological samples. Because recovery probabilities can vary as a function of individual covariates, we also examined direct recovery probabilities and observed no meaningful effect of disease surveillance sampling type but strong effects of capture date, suggesting the effect on Seber recovery probability may have been due to heterogeneity in exposure to natural and harvest mortality risks. Although we suggest that aligning disease surveillance sample collection efforts with landscape‐scale waterfowl banding efforts may have little effect on observed demographic rates, additional studies with larger sample sizes are likely needed to provide the statistical power necessary to formally conclude no effect of biological sampling on survival probabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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22. Comment on “Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds”

Author

Bulla, Martin, primary, Reneerkens, Jeroen, additional, Weiser, Emily L., additional, Sokolov, Aleksandr, additional, Taylor, Audrey R., additional, Sittler, Benoît, additional, McCaffery, Brian J., additional, Ruthrauff, Dan R., additional, Catlin, Daniel H., additional, Payer, David C., additional, Ward, David H., additional, Solovyeva, Diana V., additional, Santos, Eduardo S. A., additional, Rakhimberdiev, Eldar, additional, Nol, Erica, additional, Kwon, Eunbi, additional, Brown, Glen S., additional, Hevia, Glenda D., additional, Gates, H. River, additional, Johnson, James A., additional, van Gils, Jan A., additional, Hansen, Jannik, additional, Lamarre, Jean-François, additional, Rausch, Jennie, additional, Conklin, Jesse R., additional, Liebezeit, Joe, additional, Bêty, Joël, additional, Lang, Johannes, additional, Alves, José A., additional, Fernández-Elipe, Juan, additional, Exo, Klaus-Michael, additional, Bollache, Loïc, additional, Bertellotti, Marcelo, additional, Giroux, Marie-Andrée, additional, van de Pol, Martijn, additional, Johnson, Matthew, additional, Boldenow, Megan L., additional, Valcu, Mihai, additional, Soloviev, Mikhail, additional, Sokolova, Natalya, additional, Senner, Nathan R., additional, Lecomte, Nicolas, additional, Meyer, Nicolas, additional, Schmidt, Niels Martin, additional, Gilg, Olivier, additional, Smith, Paul A., additional, Machín, Paula, additional, McGuire, Rebecca L., additional, Cerboncini, Ricardo A. S., additional, Ottvall, Richard, additional, van Bemmelen, Rob S. A., additional, Swift, Rose J., additional, Saalfeld, Sarah T., additional, Jamieson, Sarah E., additional, Brown, Stephen, additional, Piersma, Theunis, additional, Albrecht, Tomas, additional, D’Amico, Verónica, additional, Lanctot, Richard B., additional, and Kempenaers, Bart, additional

Published
2019
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23. No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds

Author

Bulla, Martin, primary, Reneerkens, Jeroen, additional, Weiser, Emily L., additional, Sokolov, Aleksandr, additional, Taylor, Audrey R., additional, Sittler, Benoît, additional, McCaffery, Brian J., additional, Ruthrauff, Dan R., additional, Catlin, Daniel H., additional, Payer, David C., additional, Ward, David H., additional, Solovyeva, Diana V., additional, Santos, Eduardo S.A., additional, Rakhimberdiev, Eldar, additional, Nol, Erica, additional, Kwon, Eunbi, additional, Brown, Glen S., additional, Hevia, Glenda D., additional, Gates, H. River, additional, Johnson, James A., additional, van Gils, Jan A., additional, Hansen, Jannik, additional, Lamarre, Jean-François, additional, Rausch, Jennie, additional, Conklin, Jesse R., additional, Liebezeit, Joe, additional, Bêty, Joёl, additional, Lang, Johannes, additional, Alves, José A., additional, Fernández-Elipe, Juan, additional, Michael-Exo, Klaus, additional, Bollache, Loïc, additional, Bertellotti, Marcelo, additional, Giroux, Marie-Andrée, additional, van de Pol, Martijn, additional, Johnson, Matthew, additional, Boldenow, Megan L., additional, Valcu, Mihai, additional, Soloviev, Mikhail, additional, Sokolova, Natalya, additional, Senner, Nathan R., additional, Lecomte, Nicolas, additional, Meyer, Nicolas, additional, Schmidt, Niels Martin, additional, Gilg, Olivier, additional, Smith, Paul A., additional, Machín, Paula, additional, McGuire, Rebecca L., additional, Cerboncini, Ricardo A.S., additional, Ottvall, Richard, additional, van Bemmelen, Rob S.A., additional, Swift, Rose J., additional, Saalfeld, Sarah T., additional, Jamieson, Sarah E., additional, Brown, Stephen, additional, Piersma, Theunis, additional, Albrecht, Tomas, additional, D’Amico, Verónica, additional, Lanctot, Richard B., additional, and Kempenaers, Bart, additional

Published
2019
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24. Comment on 'Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds'

Author

Bulla, Martin, Reneerkens, Jeroen, Weiser, Emily L, Sokolov, Aleksandr, Taylor, Audrey R, Sittler, Benoît, McCaffery, Brian J, Ruthrauff, Dan R, Catlin, Daniel H, Payer, David C, Ward, David H, Solovyeva, Diana V, Santos, Eduardo S A, Rakhimberdiev, Eldar, Nol, Erica, Kwon, Eunbi, Brown, Glen S, Hevia, Glenda D, Gates, H River, Johnson, James A, van Gils, Jan A, Hansen, Jannik, Lamarre, Jean-François, Rausch, Jennie, Conklin, Jesse R, Liebezeit, Joe, Bêty, Joël, Lang, Johannes, Alves, José A, Fernández-Elipe, Juan, Exo, Klaus-Michael, Bollache, Loïc, Bertellotti, Marcelo, Giroux, Marie-Andrée, van de Pol, Martijn, Johnson, Matthew, Boldenow, Megan L, Valcu, Mihai, Soloviev, Mikhail, Sokolova, Natalya, Senner, Nathan R, Lecomte, Nicolas, Meyer, Nicolas, Schmidt, Niels Martin, Gilg, Olivier, Smith, Paul A, Machín, Paula, McGuire, Rebecca L, Cerboncini, Ricardo A S, Ottvall, Richard, van Bemmelen, Rob S A, Swift, Rose J, Saalfeld, Sarah T, Jamieson, Sarah E, Brown, Stephen, Piersma, Theunis, Albrecht, Tomas, D'Amico, Verónica, Lanctot, Richard B, Kempenaers, Bart, Bulla, Martin, Reneerkens, Jeroen, Weiser, Emily L, Sokolov, Aleksandr, Taylor, Audrey R, Sittler, Benoît, McCaffery, Brian J, Ruthrauff, Dan R, Catlin, Daniel H, Payer, David C, Ward, David H, Solovyeva, Diana V, Santos, Eduardo S A, Rakhimberdiev, Eldar, Nol, Erica, Kwon, Eunbi, Brown, Glen S, Hevia, Glenda D, Gates, H River, Johnson, James A, van Gils, Jan A, Hansen, Jannik, Lamarre, Jean-François, Rausch, Jennie, Conklin, Jesse R, Liebezeit, Joe, Bêty, Joël, Lang, Johannes, Alves, José A, Fernández-Elipe, Juan, Exo, Klaus-Michael, Bollache, Loïc, Bertellotti, Marcelo, Giroux, Marie-Andrée, van de Pol, Martijn, Johnson, Matthew, Boldenow, Megan L, Valcu, Mihai, Soloviev, Mikhail, Sokolova, Natalya, Senner, Nathan R, Lecomte, Nicolas, Meyer, Nicolas, Schmidt, Niels Martin, Gilg, Olivier, Smith, Paul A, Machín, Paula, McGuire, Rebecca L, Cerboncini, Ricardo A S, Ottvall, Richard, van Bemmelen, Rob S A, Swift, Rose J, Saalfeld, Sarah T, Jamieson, Sarah E, Brown, Stephen, Piersma, Theunis, Albrecht, Tomas, D'Amico, Verónica, Lanctot, Richard B, and Kempenaers, Bart

Abstract

Kubelka et al (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.

Published
2019

28. Demographic Responses of Least Terns and Piping Plovers to the 2011 Missouri River Flood—A Large-Scale Case Study

Author

Anteau, Michael J., Sherfy, Mark H., Shaffer, Terry L., Swift, Rose J., Toy, Dustin L., Dovichin, Colin M., Anteau, Michael J., Sherfy, Mark H., Shaffer, Terry L., Swift, Rose J., Toy, Dustin L., and Dovichin, Colin M.

Abstract

2011 led to substantial changes in abundance and distribution of unvegetated sand habitat. This river system is a major component of the breeding range for interior Least terns (Sternula antillarum; “terns”) and piping plovers (Charadrius melodus; “plovers”), both of which are Federally listed ground-nesting birds that prefer open, unvegetated sand and gravel nesting substrates on sandbars and shorelines. The 2011 flood inundated essentially all tern and plover nesting habitat during 2011, but it had potential to generate post-flood habitat conditions that favored use by terns and plovers in subsequent years. We compared several tern and plover demographic parameters during the pre-flood and post-flood periods on the Garrison Reach and Lake Sakakawea, North Dakota, to determine how this event influenced these species (both species on the Garrison Reach, and plovers only on Lake Sakakawea). The principal parameters we measured (nest survival, chick survival, and breeding population) showed spatial and temporal variation typical of opportunistic species occupying highly variable habitats. There was little evidence that nest survival of least terns differed between pre- and post-flood. During 2012 when habitat was most abundant on the Garrison Reach and Lake Sakakawea, piping plover nest survival was higher than in any other year in the study, but returned to rates comparable to pre-flood years in 2013. Chick survival for terns on the Garrison Reach and plovers on Lake Sakakawea showed a similar pattern to plover nest survival, with the 2012 rate exceeding all other years of the study, and the remaining pre-flood and post-flood years being generally similar but slightly higher in post-flood years. However, plover chick survival on the Garrison Reach in 2012 was similar to pre-flood years, and increased annually thereafter to its highest rate in 2014. Although wide confidence intervals precluded firm conclusions about flood effects on breeding populations, the general p

Published
2011

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