1. Clinical Outcome Predictions for the VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (VICTORIA) Trial: VICTORIA Outcomes Model
- Author
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Mentz, R, Mulder, H, Mosterd, A, Sweitzer, N, Senni, M, Butler, J, Ezekowitz, J, Lam, C, Pieske, B, Ponikowski, P, Voors, A, Anstrom, K, Armstrong, P, O'Connor, C, VICTORIA Study, G, Mentz RJ, Mulder H, Mosterd A, Sweitzer NK, Senni M, Butler J, Ezekowitz JA, Lam CSP, Pieske B, Ponikowski P, Voors AA, Anstrom KJ, Armstrong PW, O'Connor CM, VICTORIA Study Group, Mentz, R, Mulder, H, Mosterd, A, Sweitzer, N, Senni, M, Butler, J, Ezekowitz, J, Lam, C, Pieske, B, Ponikowski, P, Voors, A, Anstrom, K, Armstrong, P, O'Connor, C, VICTORIA Study, G, Mentz RJ, Mulder H, Mosterd A, Sweitzer NK, Senni M, Butler J, Ezekowitz JA, Lam CSP, Pieske B, Ponikowski P, Voors AA, Anstrom KJ, Armstrong PW, O'Connor CM, and VICTORIA Study Group
- Abstract
Background: The prediction of outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) may inform prognosis, clinical decisions regarding treatment selection, and new trial planning. The VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction included high-risk patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction and a recent worsening HF event. The study participants had a high event rate despite the use of contemporary guideline-based therapies. To provide generalizable predictive data for a broad population with a recent worsening HF event, we focused on risk prognostication in the placebo group. Methods and Results: Data from 2524 participants randomized to placebo with chronic HF (New York Heart Association functional class II–IV) and an ejection fraction of less than 45% were studied and backward variable selection was used to create Cox proportional hazards models for clinical end points, selecting from 66 candidate predictors. Final model results were produced, accounting for missing data, and nonlinearities. Optimism-corrected c-indices were calculated using 200 bootstrap samples. Over a median follow-up of 10.4 months, the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death occurred in 972 patients (38.5%). Independent predictors of increased risk for the primary end point included HF characteristics (longer HF duration and worse New York Heart Association functional class), medical history (prior myocardial infarction), and laboratory values (higher N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide, bilirubin, urate; lower chloride and albumin). Optimism-corrected c-indices were 0.68 for the HF hospitalization/cardiovascular death model, 0.68 for HF hospitalization/all-cause death, 0.72 for cardiovascular death, and 0.73 for all-cause death. Conclusions: Predictive models developed in a large diverse clinical trial with comprehensive clinical and laboratory baseline data—including novel measures—performed well in high-risk patients
- Published
- 2021