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1. Potential outcome simulation for efficient head-to-head comparison of adaptive dose-finding designs

Author

Sweeting, Michael, Slade, Daniel, Jackson, Dan, and Brock, Kristian

Subjects
Statistics - Computation, Statistics - Methodology
Abstract

Dose-finding trials are a key component of the drug development process and rely on a statistical design to help inform dosing decisions. Triallists wishing to choose a design require knowledge of operating characteristics of competing methods. This is often assessed using a large-scale simulation study with multiple designs and configurations investigated, which can be time-consuming and therefore limits the scope of the simulation. We introduce a new approach to the design of simulation studies of dose-finding trials. The approach simulates all potential outcomes that individuals could experience at each dose level in the trial. Datasets are simulated in advance and then the same datasets are applied to each of the competing methods to enable a more efficient head-to-head comparison. In two case-studies we show sizeable reductions in Monte Carlo error for comparing a performance metric between two competing designs. Efficiency gains depend on the similarity of the designs. Comparing two Phase I/II design variants, with high correlation of recommending the same optimal biologic dose, we show that the new approach requires a simulation study that is approximately 30 times smaller than the conventional approach. Furthermore, advance-simulated trial datasets can be reused to assess the performance of designs across multiple configurations. We recommend researchers consider this more efficient simulation approach in their dose-finding studies and we have updated the R package escalation to help facilitate implementation., Comment: 27 pages, 4 figures, 1 table

Published
2024

2. Optimal risk-assessment scheduling for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease

Author

Gasperoni, Francesca, Jackson, Christopher H., Wood, Angela M., Sweeting, Michael J., Newcombe, Paul J., Stevens, David, and Barrett, Jessica K.

Subjects
Statistics - Applications
Abstract

In this work, we introduce a personalised and age-specific Net Benefit function, composed of benefits and costs, to recommend optimal timing of risk assessments for cardiovascular disease prevention. We extend the 2-stage landmarking model to estimate patient-specific CVD risk profiles, adjusting for time-varying covariates. We apply our model to data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, comprising primary care electronic health records from the UK. We find that people at lower risk could be recommended an optimal risk-assessment interval of 5 years or more. Time-varying risk-factors are required to discriminate between more frequent schedules for higher-risk people.

Published
2023

5. Evaluation of interventions to prevent vasovagal reactions among whole blood donors: rationale and design of a large cluster randomised trial

Author

McMahon, Amy, Kaptoge, Stephen, Walker, Matthew, Mehenny, Susan, Gilchrist, Philippe T, Sambrook, Jennifer, Akhtar, Naim, Sweeting, Michael, Wood, Angela M, Stirrups, Kathleen, Chung, Ryan, Fahle, Sarah, Johnson, Elisha, Cullen, Donna, Godfrey, Rosemary, Duthie, Shannon, Allen, Louise, Harvey, Paul, Berkson, Michael, Allen, Elizabeth, Watkins, Nicholas A, Bradley, John R, Kingston, Nathalie, Miflin, Gail, Armitage, Jane, Roberts, David J, Danesh, John, and Di Angelantonio, Emanuele

Published
2023
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6. Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Phase I Trials

Author

Sweeting, Michael J., Mander, Adrian P., Wheeler, Graham M., Choodari-Oskooei, Babak, Section editor, Parmar, Mahesh, Section editor, Meinert, Curtis L., Section editor, Piantadosi, Steven, Section editor, Piantadosi, Steven, editor, and Meinert, Curtis L., editor

Published
2022
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7. Mixed effects models for healthcare longitudinal data with an informative visiting process: a Monte Carlo simulation study

Author

Gasparini, Alessandro, Abrams, Keith R., Barrett, Jessica K., Major, Rupert W., Sweeting, Michael J., Brunskill, Nigel J., and Crowther, Michael J.

Subjects
Statistics - Methodology
Abstract

Electronic health records are being increasingly used in medical research to answer more relevant and detailed clinical questions; however, they pose new and significant methodological challenges. For instance, observation times are likely correlated with the underlying disease severity: patients with worse conditions utilise health care more and may have worse biomarker values recorded. Traditional methods for analysing longitudinal data assume independence between observation times and disease severity; yet, with healthcare data such assumptions unlikely holds. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we compare different analytical approaches proposed to account for an informative visiting process to assess whether they lead to unbiased results. Furthermore, we formalise a joint model for the observation process and the longitudinal outcome within an extended joint modelling framework. We illustrate our results using data from a pragmatic trial on enhanced care for individuals with chronic kidney disease, and we introduce user-friendly software that can be used to fit the joint model for the observation process and a longitudinal outcome.

Published
2018
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8. COVID-19 trajectories among 57 million adults in England: a cohort study using electronic health records

Author

Abbasizanjani, Hoda, Ahmed, Nida, Ahmed, Badar, Akbari, Ashley, Akinoso-Imran, Abdul Qadr, Allara, Elias, Allery, Freya, Angelantonio, Emanuele Di, Ashworth, Mark, Ayyar-Gupta, Vandana, Babu-Narayan, Sonya, Bacon, Seb, Ball, Steve, Banerjee, Ami, Barber, Mark, Barrett, Jessica, Bennie, Marion, Berry, Colin, Beveridge, Jennifer, Birney, Ewan, Bojanić, Lana, Bolton, Thomas, Bone, Anna, Boyle, Jon, Braithwaite, Tasanee, Bray, Ben, Briffa, Norman, Brind, David, Brown, Katherine, Buch, Maya, Canoy, Dexter, Caputo, Massimo, Carragher, Raymond, Carson, Alan, Cezard, Genevieve, Chang, Jen-Yu Amy, Cheema, Kate, Chin, Richard, Chudasama, Yogini, Cooper, Jennifer, Copland, Emma, Crallan, Rebecca, Cripps, Rachel, Cromwell, David, Curcin, Vasa, Curry, Gwenetta, Dale, Caroline, Danesh, John, Das-Munshi, Jayati, Dashtban, Ashkan, Davies, Alun, Davies, Joanna, Davies, Gareth, Davies, Neil, Day, Joshua, Delmestri, Antonella, Denaxas, Spiros, Denholm, Rachel, Dennis, John, Denniston, Alastair, Deo, Salil, Dhillon, Baljean, Docherty, Annemarie, Dong, Tim, Douiri, Abdel, Downs, Johnny, Dregan, Alexandru, Ellins, Elizabeth A, Elwenspoek, Martha, Falck, Fabian, Falter, Florian, Fan, Yat Yi, Firth, Joseph, Fraser, Lorna, Friebel, Rocco, Gavrieli, Amir, Gerstung, Moritz, Gilbert, Ruth, Gillies, Clare, Glickman, Myer, Goldacre, Ben, Goldacre, Raph, Greaves, Felix, Green, Mark, Grieco, Luca, Griffiths, Rowena, Gurdasani, Deepti, Halcox, Julian, Hall, Nick, Hama, Tuankasfee, Handy, Alex, Hansell, Anna, Hardelid, Pia, Hardy, Flavien, Harris, Daniel, Harrison, Camille, Harron, Katie, Hassaine, Abdelaali, Hassan, Lamiece, Healey, Russell, Hemingway, Harry, Henderson, Angela, Herz, Naomi, Heyl, Johannes, Hidajat, Mira, Higginson, Irene, Hinchliffe, Rosie, Hippisley-Cox, Julia, Ho, Frederick, Hocaoglu, Mevhibe, Hollings, Sam, Horne, Elsie, Hughes, David, Humberstone, Ben, Inouye, Mike, Ip, Samantha, Islam, Nazrul, Jackson, Caroline, Jenkins, David, Jiang, Xiyun, Johnson, Shane, Kadam, Umesh, Kallis, Costas, Karim, Zainab, Kasan, Jake, Katsoulis, Michalis, Kavanagh, Kim, Kee, Frank, Keene, Spencer, Kent, Seamus, Khalid, Sara, Khawaja, Anthony, Khunti, Kamlesh, Killick, Richard, Kinnear, Deborah, Knight, Rochelle, Kolamunnage-Dona, Ruwanthi, Kontopantelis, Evan, Kurdi, Amanj, Lacey, Ben, Lai, Alvina, Lambarth, Andrew, Larzjan, Milad Nazarzadeh, Lawler, Deborah, Lawrence, Thomas, Lawson, Claire, Li, Qiuju, Li, Ken, Llinares, Miguel Bernabeu, Lorgelly, Paula, Lowe, Deborah, Lyons, Jane, Lyons, Ronan, Machado, Pedro, Macleod, Mary Joan, Macleod, John, Malgapo, Evaleen, Mamas, Mamas, Mamouei, Mohammad, Manohar, Sinduja, Mapeta, Rutendo, Martelli, Javiera Leniz, Martos, David Moreno, Mateen, Bilal, McCarthy, Aoife, Melville, Craig, Milton, Rebecca, Mizani, Mehrdad, Moncusi, Marta Pineda, Morales, Daniel, Mordi, Ify, Morrice, Lynn, Morris, Carole, Morris, Eva, Mu, Yi, Mueller, Tanja, Murdock, Lars, Nafilyan, Vahé, Nicholson, George, Nikiphorou, Elena, Nolan, John, Norris, Tom, Norris, Ruth, North, Laura, North, Teri-Louise, O'Connell, Dan, Oliver, Dominic, Oluyase, Adejoke, Olvera-Barrios, Abraham, Omigie, Efosa, Onida, Sarah, Padmanabhan, Sandosh, Palmer, Tom, Pasea, Laura, Patel, Riyaz, Payne, Rupert, Pell, Jill, Petitjean, Carmen, Pherwani, Arun, Pickrell, Owen, Pierotti, Livia, Pirmohamed, Munir, Priedon, Rouven, Prieto-Alhambra, Dani, Proudfoot, Alastair, Quinn, Terry, Quint, Jennifer, Raffetti, Elena, Rahimi, Kazem, Rao, Shishir, Razieh, Cameron, Roberts, Brian, Rogers, Caroline, Rossdale, Jennifer, Salim, Safa, Samani, Nilesh, Sattar, Naveed, Schnier, Christian, Schwartz, Roy, Selby, David, Seminog, Olena, Shabnam, Sharmin, Shah, Ajay, Shelton, Jon, Sheppard, James, Sinha, Shubhra, Skrypak, Mirek, Slapkova, Martina, Sleeman, Katherine, Smith, Craig, Sofat, Reecha, Sosenko, Filip, Sperrin, Matthew, Steeg, Sarah, Sterne, Jonathan, Stoica, Serban, Sudell, Maria, Sudlow, Cathie, Sun, Luanluan, Suseeladevi, Arun Karthikeyan, Sweeting, Michael, Sydes, Matt, Takhar, Rohan, Tang, Howard, Thygesen, Johan, Tilston, George, Tochel, Claire, Toit, Clea du, Tomlinson, Christopher, Toms, Renin, Torabi, Fatemeh, Torralbo, Ana, Townson, Julia, Tufail, Adnan, Tungamirai, Tapiwa, Varma, Susheel, Vollmer, Sebastian, Walker, Venexia, Wang, Tianxiao, Wang, Huan, Warwick, Alasdair, Watkinson, Ruth, Watson, Harry, Whiteley, William, Whittaker, Hannah, Wilde, Harry, Wilkinson, Tim, Williams, Gareth, Williams, Michelle, Williams, Richard, Withnell, Eloise, Wolfe, Charles, Wood, Angela, Wright, Lucy, Wu, Honghan, Wu, Jinge, Wu, Jianhua, Yates, Tom, Zaccardi, Francesco, Zhang, Haoting, Zhang, Huayu, Zuccolo, Luisa, Thygesen, Johan H, Mizani, Mehrdad A, Banerjee, Amitava, Lai, Alvina G, Li, Kezhi, Mateen, Bilal A, Sterne, Jonathan A C, Pagel, Christina, and Whiteley, William N

Published
2022
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10. Treatment Effect Measures Under Nonproportional Hazards.

Author

Jackson, Dan, Sweeting, Michael, and Baker, Rose

Subjects
*SURVIVAL analysis (Biometry), *TREATMENT effectiveness, *HAZARDS, *MOTIVATION (Psychology), *STATISTICS
Abstract

ABSTRACT ‘Treatment effect measures under nonproportional hazards’ by Snapinn et al. (Pharmaceutical Statistics, 22, 181–193) recently proposed some novel estimates of treatment effect for time‐to‐event endpoints. In this note, we clarify three points related to the proposed estimators that help to elucidate their properties. We hope that their work, and this commentary, will motivate further discussion concerning treatment effect measures that do not require the proportional hazards assumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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11. General Population Mortality Adjustment in Survival Extrapolation of Cancer Trials: Exploring Plausibility and Implications for Cost-Effectiveness Analyses in HER2-Positive Breast Cancer in Sweden.

Author

Kim, Kun, Sweeting, Michael, Wilking, Nils, and Jönsson, Linus

Abstract

Background: In economic evaluations of novel therapies, assessing lifetime effects based on trial data often necessitates survival extrapolation, with the choice of model affecting outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess accuracy and variability between alternative approaches to survival extrapolation. Methods: Data on HER2-positive breast cancer patients from the Swedish National Breast Cancer Register were used to fit standard parametric distribution (SPD) models and excess hazard (EH) models adjusting the survival projections based on general population mortality (GPM). Models were fitted using 6-y data for stage I and II, 4-y data for stage III, and 2-y data for stage IV cancer reflecting an early data cutoff while maintaining sufficient events for comparison of model estimates with actual long-term outcomes. We compared model projections of 15-y survival and restricted mean survival time (RMST) to 15-y registry data and explored the variability between models in extrapolations of long-term survival. Results: Among 11,224 patients compared with the observed registry 15-y RMST estimates across the disease stages, EH cure models provided the most accurate estimates in patients with stage I to III cancer, whereas EH models without cure most closely matched survival in patients with stage IV cancer, in which cure assumption was less plausible. The Akaike information criterion–averaged model projections varied as follows: −8.2% to +5.3% for SPD models, −4.9% to +5.2% for the EH model without a cure assumption, and −19.3% to −0.2% for the EH model with a cure assumption. EH models significantly reduced between-model variance in the predicted RMSTs over a 50-y time horizon compared with SPD models. Conclusions: EH models may be considered as alternatives to SPD models to produce more accurate and plausible survival extrapolation that accounts for general population mortality. Highlights: Excess hazard (EH) methods have been suggested as an approach to incorporate background mortality rates in economic evaluation using survival extrapolation. We highlight that EH models with or without a cure assumption can produce more accurate survival projections and significantly reduce between-model variability in comparison with standard parametric distribution models across cancer stages. EH models may be a preferred modeling method to reduce model uncertainty in health economic modeling since models that would otherwise have produced implausible extrapolations are constrained by the EH framework. Reduced uncertainty in economic evaluations will enhance the application of evidence-based health care decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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16. Glycemic index, glycemic load, and risk of coronary heart disease: a pan-European cohort study

Author

Sieri, Sabina, Agnoli, Claudia, Grioni, Sara, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Mattiello, Amalia, Sluijs, Ivonne, Sanchez, Maria Jose, Jakobsen, Marianne Uhre, Sweeting, Michael, van der Schouw, Yvonne T, Nilsson, Lena Maria, Wennberg, Patrik, Katzke, Verena A, Kühn, Tilman, Overvad, Kim, Tong, Tammy YN, Conchi, Moreno-Iribas, Quirós, José Ramón, García-Torrecillas, Juan Manuel, Mokoroa, Olatz, Gómez, Jesús-Humberto, Tjønneland, Anne, Sonestedt, Emiliy, Trichopoulou, Antonia, Karakatsani, Anna, Valanou, Elissavet, Boer, Jolanda MA, Verschuren, WM Monique, Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine, Fagherazzi, Guy, Madika, Anne-Laure, Bergmann, Manuela M, Schulze, Matthias B, Ferrari, Pietro, Freisling, Heinz, Lennon, Hannah, Sacerdote, Carlotta, Masala, Giovanna, Tumino, Rosario, Riboli, Elio, Wareham, Nicholas J, Danesh, John, Forouhi, Nita G, Butterworth, Adam S, and Krogh, Vittorio

Published
2020
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17. Development and validation of a universal blood donor genotyping platform: a multinational prospective study

Author

Gleadall, Nicholas S., Veldhuisen, Barbera, Gollub, Jeremy, Butterworth, Adam S., Ord, John, Penkett, Christopher J., Timmer, Tiffany C., Sauer, Carolin M., van der Bolt, Nieke, Brown, Colin, Brugger, Kim, Dilthey, Alexander T., Duarte, Daniel, Grimsley, Shane, van den Hurk, Katja, Jongerius, John M., Luken, Jessie, Megy, Karyn, Miflin, Gail, Nelson, Christopher S., Prinsze, Femmeke J., Sambrook, Jennifer, Simeoni, Ilenia, Sweeting, Michael, Thornton, Nicole, Trompeter, Sara, Tuna, Salih, Varma, Ram, Walker, Matthew R., Danesh, John, Roberts, David J., Ouwehand, Willem H., Stirrups, Kathleen E., Rendon, Augusto, Westhoff, Connie M., Di Angelantonio, Emanuele, van der Schoot, C. Ellen, Astle, William J., Watkins, Nicholas A., and Lane, William J.

Published
2020
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29. Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption: combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies

Author

Wood, Angela M, Kaptoge, Stephen, Butterworth, Adam, Willeit, Peter, Warnakula, Samantha, Bolton, Thomas, Paige, Ellie, Paul, Dirk S, Sweeting, Michael, Burgess, Stephen, Bell, Steven, Astle, William, Stevens, David, Koulman, Albert, Selmer, Randi M, Verschuren, Monique, Sato, Shinichi, Njølstad, Inger, Woodward, Mark, Veikko, Salomaa, Nordestgaard, Børge G, Yeap, Bu B, Flecther, Astrid, Melander, Olle, Kuller, Lewis H, Balkau, Beverley, Marmot, Michael, Koenig, Wolfgang, Casiglia, Edoardo, Cooper, Cyrus, Arndt, Volker, Franco, Oscar H, Wennberg, Patrik, Gallacher, John, Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín, Völzke, Henry, Dahm, Christina C, Dale, Caroline E, Bergmann, Manuela, Crespo, Carlos, van der Schouw, Yvonne T, Kaaks, Rudolf, Simons, Leon A, Lagiou, Pagona, Schoufour, Josje D, Boer, Jolanda M.A, Key, Timothy J, Rodriguez, Beatriz, Moreno-Iribas, Conchi, Davidson, Karina W, Taylor, James O, Sacerdote, Carlotta, Wallace, Robert B, Quiros, J. Ramon, Rimm, Eric B, Tumino, Rosario, Blazer III, Dan G, Linneberg, Allan, Daimon, Makoto, Panico, Salvatore, Howard, Barbara, Skeie, Guri, Salomaa, Veikko, Strandberg, Timo, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Nietert, Paul J, Psaty, Bruce M, Kromhout, Daan, Salamanca-Fernandez, Elena, Kiechl, Stefan, Krumholz, Harlan M, Grioni, Sara, Palli, Domenico, Huerta, José M, Price, Jackie, Sundström, Johan, Arriola, Larraitz, Arima, Hisatomi, Travis, Ruth C, Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B, Karakatsani, Anna, Trichopoulou, Antonia, Kühn, Tilman, Grobbee, Diederick E, Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth, van Schoor, Natasja, Boeing, Heiner, Overvad, Kim, Kauhanen, Jussi, Wareham, Nick, Langenberg, Claudia, Forouhi, Nita, Wennberg, Maria, Després, Jean-Pierre, Cushman, Mary, Cooper, Jackie A, Rodriguez, Carlos J, Sakurai, Masaru, Shaw, Jonathan E, Knuiman, Matthew, Voortman, Trudy, Meisinger, Christa, Tjønneland, Anne, Brenner, Hermann, Palmieri, Luigi, Dallongeville, Jean-Pierre, Brunner, Eric J, Assmann, Gerd, Trevisan, Maurizio, Gillumn, Richard F, Ford, Ian Ford, Sattar, Naveed, Lazo, Mariana, Thompson, Simon, Ferrari, Pietro, Leon, David A, Davey Smith, George, Peto, Richard, Jackson, Rod, Banks, Emily, Di Angelantonio, Emanuele, Danesh, John, Butterworth, Adam S, Verschuren, W M Monique, Fletcher, Astrid, de la Cámara, Agustín Gómez, Bergmann, Manuela M, Crespo, Carlos J, Boer, Jolanda M A, Quiros, J Ramon, Blazer, Dan G, II, Dallongeville, Jean, Gillum, Richard F, Ford, Ian, Thompson, Simon G, and Smith, George Davey

Published
2018
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31. Intima-media thickness at the near or far wall of the common carotid artery in cardiovascular risk assessment

Author

Seekircher, Lisa, primary, Tschiderer, Lena, additional, Lind, Lars, additional, Safarova, Maya S, additional, Kavousi, Maryam, additional, Ikram, M Arfan, additional, Lonn, Eva, additional, Yusuf, Salim, additional, Grobbee, Diederick E, additional, Kastelein, John J P, additional, Visseren, Frank L J, additional, Walters, Matthew, additional, Dawson, Jesse, additional, Higgins, Peter, additional, Agewall, Stefan, additional, Catapano, Alberico, additional, de Groot, Eric, additional, Espeland, Mark A, additional, Klingenschmid, Gerhard, additional, Magliano, Dianna, additional, Olsen, Michael H, additional, Preiss, David, additional, Sander, Dirk, additional, Skilton, Michael, additional, Zozulińska-Ziółkiewicz, Dorota A, additional, Grooteman, Muriel P C, additional, Blankestijn, Peter J, additional, Kitagawa, Kazuo, additional, Okazaki, Shuhei, additional, Manzi, Maria V, additional, Mancusi, Costantino, additional, Izzo, Raffaele, additional, Desvarieux, Moise, additional, Rundek, Tatjana, additional, Gerstein, Hertzel C, additional, Bots, Michiel L, additional, Sweeting, Michael J, additional, Lorenz, Matthias W, additional, and Willeit, Peter, additional

Published
2023
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34. Lifestyle factors and risk of multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases: a multinational cohort study

Author

Freisling, Heinz, Viallon, Vivian, Lennon, Hannah, Bagnardi, Vincenzo, Ricci, Cristian, Butterworth, Adam S., Sweeting, Michael, Muller, David, Romieu, Isabelle, Bazelle, Pauline, Kvaskoff, Marina, Arveux, Patrick, Severi, Gianluca, Bamia, Christina, Kühn, Tilman, Kaaks, Rudolf, Bergmann, Manuela, Boeing, Heiner, Tjønneland, Anne, Olsen, Anja, Overvad, Kim, Dahm, Christina C., Menéndez, Virginia, Agudo, Antonio, Sánchez, Maria-Jose, Amiano, Pilar, Santiuste, Carmen, Gurrea, Aurelio Barricarte, Tong, Tammy Y. N., Schmidt, Julie A., Tzoulaki, Ioanna, Tsilidis, Konstantinos K., Ward, Heather, Palli, Domenico, Agnoli, Claudia, Tumino, Rosario, Ricceri, Fulvio, Panico, Salvatore, Picavet, H. Susan J., Bakker, Marije, Monninkhof, Evelyn, Nilsson, Peter, Manjer, Jonas, Rolandsson, Olov, Thysell, Elin, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Jenab, Mazda, Riboli, Elio, Vineis, Paolo, Danesh, John, Wareham, Nick J., Gunter, Marc J., and Ferrari, Pietro

Published
2020
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35. Influence of cardiometabolic medications on abdominal aortic aneurysm growth in the UK Aneurysm Growth Study: metformin and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors associated with slower aneurysm growth.

Author

Gellatly, Corry, Sweeting, Michael, Emin, Atilla, Katsogridakis, Emmanuel, Finch, Sarah, Saratzis, Athanasios, Bown, Matthew J, UKAGS Investigators and Collaborators, Asani, Furaha, Asiani, Manish, Barber, Jonathon, Barwell, Jamie, Baker, Sara, Brooks, Marcus, Browning, Neil, Chamberlain, Julie, Chandarana, Kundan, Chetter, Ian, Choksy, Sohail, and Clay, Caroline

Subjects
*ABDOMINAL aortic aneurysms, *DISEASE progression, *ACE inhibitors, *ANGIOTENSIN-receptor blockers, *ANGIOTENSIN II, *DRUGS, *METFORMIN, *NICOTINE replacement therapy
Abstract

Background: There is a clinical need for treatments that can slow or prevent the growth of an abdominal aortic aneurysm, not only to reduce the need for surgery, but to provide a means to treat those who cannot undergo surgery. Methods: Analysis of the UK Aneurysm Growth Study (UKAGS) prospective cohort was conducted to test for an association between cardiometabolic medications and the growth of an abdominal aortic aneurysm above 30 mm in diameter, using linear mixed-effect models. Results: A total of 3670 male participants with data available on abdominal aortic aneurysm growth, smoking status, co-morbidities, and medication history were included. The mean age at recruitment was 69.5 years, the median number of surveillance scans was 6, and the mean(s.e.) unadjusted abdominal aortic aneurysm growth rate was 1.75(0.03) mm/year. In a multivariate linear mixed-effect model, smoking (mean(s.e.) +0.305(0.07) mm/year, P = 0.00003) and antiplatelet use (mean(s.e.) +0.235(0.06) mm/year, P = 0.00018) were found to be associated with more rapid abdominal aortic aneurysm growth, whilst metformin was strongly associated with slower abdominal aortic aneurysm growth (mean(s.e.) −0.38(0.1) mm/year, P = 0.00019), as were angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (mean(s.e.) −0.243(0.07) mm/year, P = 0.0004), angiotensin II receptor antagonists (mean(s.e.) −0.253(0.08) mm/year, P = 0.00255), and thiazides/related diuretics (mean(s.e.) −0.307(0.09) mm/year, P = 0.00078). Conclusion: The strong association of metformin with slower abdominal aortic aneurysm growth highlights the importance of the ongoing clinical trials assessing the effectiveness of metformin with regard to the prevention of abdominal aortic aneurysm growth and/or rupture. The association of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor antagonists, and diuretics with slower abdominal aortic aneurysm growth points to the possibility that optimization of cardiovascular risk management as part of abdominal aortic aneurysm surveillance may have the secondary benefit of also reducing abdominal aortic aneurysm growth rates. Abdominal aortic aneurysm growth rates were compared with smoking status, co-morbidities, and medication history in the UK Aneurysm Growth Study (UKAGS) prospective cohort. It was found that: smoking and antiplatelet use were associated with a more rapid abdominal aortic aneurysm growth rate; the drug metformin was strongly associated with a slower abdominal aortic aneurysm growth rate; and drugs in the angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, angiotensin II receptor antagonist, and thiazide/related diuretic classes were also associated with a slower abdominal aortic aneurysm growth rate. These results suggest that common cardiometabolic medications may be useful therapeutic options to slow abdominal aortic aneurysm growth rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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38. Association of Intima-Media Thickness Measured at the Common Carotid Artery With Incident Carotid Plaque : Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of 20 Prospective Studies

Author

Tschiderer, Lena, Seekircher, Lisa, Izzo, Raffaele, Mancusi, Costantino V., Manzi, Maria, Baldassarre, Damiano, Amato, Mauro, Tremoli, Elena, Veglia, Fabrizio, Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka, Kauhanen, Jussi, Voutilainen, Ari, Iglseder, Bernhard, Lind, Lars, Rundek, Tatjana, Desvarieux, Moise, Kato, Akihiko, de Groot, Eric, Asci, Guelay, Ok, Ercan, Agewall, Stefan, Beulens, Joline W. J. D., Byrne, Christopher C., Calder, Philip C., Gerstein, Hertzel, Gresele, Paolo, Klingenschmid, Gerhard, Nagai, Michiaki H., Olsen, Michael, Parraga, Grace S., Safarova, Maya, Sattar, Naveed, Skilton, Michael, Stehouwer, Coen D. A., Uthoff, Heiko A., van Agtmael, Michiel A., van der Heijden, Amber A., Zozulinska-Ziolkiewicz, Dorota, Park, Hyun-Woong, Lee, Moo-Sik, Bae, Jang-Ho, Beloqui, Oscar F., Landecho, Manuel, Plichart, Matthieu, Ducimetiere, Pierre, Empana, Jean Philippe, Bokemark, Lena, Bergstroem, Goeran, Schmidt, Caroline, Castelnuovo, Samuela, Calabresi, Laura D., Norata, Giuseppe, Grigore, Liliana, Catapano, Alberico, Zhao, Dong, Wang, Miao, Liu, Jing, Ikram, M. Arfan, Kavousi, Maryam L., Bots, Michiel J., Sweeting, Michael W., Lorenz, Matthias, Willeit, Peter, Tschiderer, Lena, Seekircher, Lisa, Izzo, Raffaele, Mancusi, Costantino V., Manzi, Maria, Baldassarre, Damiano, Amato, Mauro, Tremoli, Elena, Veglia, Fabrizio, Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka, Kauhanen, Jussi, Voutilainen, Ari, Iglseder, Bernhard, Lind, Lars, Rundek, Tatjana, Desvarieux, Moise, Kato, Akihiko, de Groot, Eric, Asci, Guelay, Ok, Ercan, Agewall, Stefan, Beulens, Joline W. J. D., Byrne, Christopher C., Calder, Philip C., Gerstein, Hertzel, Gresele, Paolo, Klingenschmid, Gerhard, Nagai, Michiaki H., Olsen, Michael, Parraga, Grace S., Safarova, Maya, Sattar, Naveed, Skilton, Michael, Stehouwer, Coen D. A., Uthoff, Heiko A., van Agtmael, Michiel A., van der Heijden, Amber A., Zozulinska-Ziolkiewicz, Dorota, Park, Hyun-Woong, Lee, Moo-Sik, Bae, Jang-Ho, Beloqui, Oscar F., Landecho, Manuel, Plichart, Matthieu, Ducimetiere, Pierre, Empana, Jean Philippe, Bokemark, Lena, Bergstroem, Goeran, Schmidt, Caroline, Castelnuovo, Samuela, Calabresi, Laura D., Norata, Giuseppe, Grigore, Liliana, Catapano, Alberico, Zhao, Dong, Wang, Miao, Liu, Jing, Ikram, M. Arfan, Kavousi, Maryam L., Bots, Michiel J., Sweeting, Michael W., Lorenz, Matthias, and Willeit, Peter

Abstract

Background: The association between common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) and incident carotid plaque has not been characterized fully. We therefore aimed to precisely quantify the relationship between CCA-IMT and carotid plaque development. Methods and Results: We undertook an individual participant data meta-analysis of 20 prospective studies from the Proof-ATHERO (Prospective Studies of Atherosclerosis) consortium that recorded baseline CCA-IMT and incident carotid plaque involving 21 494 individuals without a history of cardiovascular disease and without preexisting carotid plaque at baseline. Mean baseline age was 56 years (SD, 9 years), 55% were women, and mean baseline CCA-IMT was 0.71 mm (SD, 0.17 mm). Over a median follow-up of 5.9 years (5th-95th percentile, 1.9-19.0 years), 8278 individuals developed first-ever carotid plaque. We combined study-specific odds ratios (ORs) for incident carotid plaque using random-effects meta-analysis. Baseline CCA-IMT was approximately log-linearly associated with the odds of developing carotid plaque. The age-, sex-, and trial arm-adjusted OR for carotid plaque per SD higher baseline CCA-IMT was 1.40 (95% CI, 1.31-1.50; I-2=63.9%). The corresponding OR that was further adjusted for ethnicity, smoking, diabetes, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.24-1.45; I-2=59.4%; 14 studies; 16 297 participants; 6381 incident plaques). We observed no significant effect modification across clinically relevant subgroups. Sensitivity analysis restricted to studies defining plaque as focal thickening yielded a comparable OR (1.38 [95% CI, 1.29-1.47]; I-2=57.1%; 14 studies; 17 352 participants; 6991 incident plaques). Conclusions: Our large-scale individual participant data meta-analysis demonstrated that CCA-IMT is associated with the long-term risk of developing first-ever carotid plaque, independent

Published
2023
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39. Intima-media thickness at the near or far wall of the common carotid artery in cardiovascular risk assessment

Author

Seekircher, Lisa, Tschiderer, Lena, Lind, Lars, Safarova, Maya S., Kavousi, Maryam, Ikram, M. Arfan, Lonn, Eva, Yusuf, Salim, Grobbee, Diederick E., Kastelein, John J.P., Visseren, Frank L.J., Walters, Matthew, Dawson, Jesse, Higgins, Peter, Agewall, Stefan, Catapano, Alberico, De Groot, Eric, Espeland, Mark A., Klingenschmid, Gerhard, Magliano, Dianna, Olsen, Michael H., Preiss, David, Sander, Dirk, Skilton, Michael, Zozulińska-Ziółkiewicz, Dorota A., Grooteman, Muriel P.C., Blankestijn, Peter J., Kitagawa, Kazuo, Okazaki, Shuhei, Manzi, Maria V., Mancusi, Costantino, Izzo, Raffaele, Desvarieux, Moise, Rundek, Tatjana, Gerstein, Hertzel C., Bots, Michiel L., Sweeting, Michael J., Lorenz, Matthias W., Willeit, Peter, Seekircher, Lisa, Tschiderer, Lena, Lind, Lars, Safarova, Maya S., Kavousi, Maryam, Ikram, M. Arfan, Lonn, Eva, Yusuf, Salim, Grobbee, Diederick E., Kastelein, John J.P., Visseren, Frank L.J., Walters, Matthew, Dawson, Jesse, Higgins, Peter, Agewall, Stefan, Catapano, Alberico, De Groot, Eric, Espeland, Mark A., Klingenschmid, Gerhard, Magliano, Dianna, Olsen, Michael H., Preiss, David, Sander, Dirk, Skilton, Michael, Zozulińska-Ziółkiewicz, Dorota A., Grooteman, Muriel P.C., Blankestijn, Peter J., Kitagawa, Kazuo, Okazaki, Shuhei, Manzi, Maria V., Mancusi, Costantino, Izzo, Raffaele, Desvarieux, Moise, Rundek, Tatjana, Gerstein, Hertzel C., Bots, Michiel L., Sweeting, Michael J., Lorenz, Matthias W., and Willeit, Peter

Abstract

Aims: Current guidelines recommend measuring carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) at the far wall of the common carotid artery (CCA). We aimed to precisely quantify associations of near vs. far wall CCA-IMT with the risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD, defined as coronary heart disease or stroke) and their added predictive values. Methods and results: We analysed individual records of 41 941 participants from 16 prospective studies in the Proof-ATHERO consortium {mean age 61 years [standard deviation (SD) = 11]; 53% female; 16% prior CVD}. Mean baseline values of near and far wall CCA-IMT were 0.83 (SD = 0.28) and 0.82 (SD = 0.27) mm, differed by a mean of 0.02 mm (95% limits of agreement: -0.40 to 0.43), and were moderately correlated [r = 0.44; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.39-0.49). Over a median follow-up of 9.3 years, we recorded 10 423 CVD events. We pooled study-specific hazard ratios for CVD using random-effects meta-analysis. Near and far wall CCA-IMT values were approximately linearly associated with CVD risk. The respective hazard ratios per SD higher value were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.14-1.22; I² = 30.7%) and 1.20 (1.18-1.23; I² = 5.3%) when adjusted for age, sex, and prior CVD and 1.09 (1.07-1.12; I² = 8.4%) and 1.14 (1.12-1.16; I²=1.3%) upon multivariable adjustment (all P < 0.001). Assessing CCA-IMT at both walls provided a greater C-index improvement than assessing CCA-IMT at one wall only [+0.0046 vs. +0.0023 for near (P < 0.001), +0.0037 for far wall (P = 0.006)]. Conclusions: The associations of near and far wall CCA-IMT with incident CVD were positive, approximately linear, and similarly strong. Improvement in risk discrimination was highest when CCA-IMT was measured at both walls.

Published
2023

40. Association of Intima-Media Thickness Measured at the Common Carotid Artery With Incident Carotid Plaque:Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of 20 Prospective Studies

Author

Tschiderer, Lena, Seekircher, Lisa, Izzo, Raffaele, Mancusi, Costantino, Manzi, Maria V., Baldassarre, Damiano, Amato, Mauro, Tremoli, Elena, Veglia, Fabrizio, Tuomainen, Tomi Pekka, Kauhanen, Jussi, Voutilainen, Ari, Iglseder, Bernhard, Lind, Lars, Rundek, Tatjana, Desvarieux, Moise, Kato, Akihiko, de Groot, Eric, Aşçi, Gülay, Ok, Ercan, Agewall, Stefan, Beulens, Joline W.J., Byrne, Christopher D., Calder, Philip C., Gerstein, Hertzel C., Gresele, Paolo, Klingenschmid, Gerhard, Nagai, Michiaki, Olsen, Michael H., Parraga, Grace, Safarova, Maya S., Sattar, Naveed, Skilton, Michael, Stehouwer, Coen D.A., Uthoff, Heiko, van Agtmael, Michiel A., van der Heijden, Amber A., Zozulińska-Ziółkiewicz, Dorota A., Park, Hyun Woong, Lee, Moo Sik, Bae, Jang Ho, Beloqui, Oscar, Landecho, Manuel F., Plichart, Matthieu, Ducimetiere, Pierre, Empana, Jean Philippe, Bokemark, Lena, Bergström, Göran, Schmidt, Caroline, Castelnuovo, Samuela, Calabresi, Laura, Norata, Giuseppe D., Grigore, Liliana, Catapano, Alberico, Zhao, Dong, Wang, Miao, Liu, Jing, Ikram, M. Arfan, Kavousi, Maryam, Bots, Michiel L, Sweeting, Michael J., Lorenz, Matthias W., Willeit, Peter, Tschiderer, Lena, Seekircher, Lisa, Izzo, Raffaele, Mancusi, Costantino, Manzi, Maria V., Baldassarre, Damiano, Amato, Mauro, Tremoli, Elena, Veglia, Fabrizio, Tuomainen, Tomi Pekka, Kauhanen, Jussi, Voutilainen, Ari, Iglseder, Bernhard, Lind, Lars, Rundek, Tatjana, Desvarieux, Moise, Kato, Akihiko, de Groot, Eric, Aşçi, Gülay, Ok, Ercan, Agewall, Stefan, Beulens, Joline W.J., Byrne, Christopher D., Calder, Philip C., Gerstein, Hertzel C., Gresele, Paolo, Klingenschmid, Gerhard, Nagai, Michiaki, Olsen, Michael H., Parraga, Grace, Safarova, Maya S., Sattar, Naveed, Skilton, Michael, Stehouwer, Coen D.A., Uthoff, Heiko, van Agtmael, Michiel A., van der Heijden, Amber A., Zozulińska-Ziółkiewicz, Dorota A., Park, Hyun Woong, Lee, Moo Sik, Bae, Jang Ho, Beloqui, Oscar, Landecho, Manuel F., Plichart, Matthieu, Ducimetiere, Pierre, Empana, Jean Philippe, Bokemark, Lena, Bergström, Göran, Schmidt, Caroline, Castelnuovo, Samuela, Calabresi, Laura, Norata, Giuseppe D., Grigore, Liliana, Catapano, Alberico, Zhao, Dong, Wang, Miao, Liu, Jing, Ikram, M. Arfan, Kavousi, Maryam, Bots, Michiel L, Sweeting, Michael J., Lorenz, Matthias W., and Willeit, Peter

Abstract

Background The association between common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) and incident carotid plaque has not been characterized fully. We therefore aimed to precisely quantify the relationship between CCA-IMT and carotid plaque development. Methods and Results We undertook an individual participant data meta-analysis of 20 prospective studies from the Proof-ATHERO (Prospective Studies of Atherosclerosis) consortium that recorded baseline CCA-IMT and incident carotid plaque involving 21 494 individuals without a history of cardiovascular disease and without preexisting carotid plaque at baseline. Mean baseline age was 56 years (SD, 9 years), 55% were women, and mean baseline CCA-IMT was 0.71 mm (SD, 0.17 mm). Over a median follow-up of 5.9 years (5th-95th percentile, 1.9-19.0 years), 8278 individuals developed first-ever carotid plaque. We combined study-specific odds ratios (ORs) for incident carotid plaque using random-effects meta-analysis. Baseline CCA-IMT was approximately log-linearly associated with the odds of developing carotid plaque. The age-, sex-, and trial arm-adjusted OR for carotid plaque per SD higher baseline CCA-IMT was 1.40 (95% CI, 1.31-1.50; I2=63.9%). The corresponding OR that was further adjusted for ethnicity, smoking, diabetes, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.24-1.45; I2=59.4%; 14 studies; 16 297 participants; 6381 incident plaques). We observed no significant effect modification across clinically relevant subgroups. Sensitivity analysis restricted to studies defining plaque as focal thickening yielded a comparable OR (1.38 [95% CI, 1.29-1.47]; I2=57.1%; 14 studies; 17 352 participants; 6991 incident plaques). Conclusions Our large-scale individual participant data meta-analysis demonstrated that CCA-IMT is associated with the long-term risk of developing first-ever carotid p

Published
2023

41. Intima-media thickness at the near or far wall of the common carotid artery in cardiovascular risk assessment

Author

Global Health, Circulatory Health, JC onderzoeksprogramma Cardiovasculaire Epidemiologie, Interne Geneeskunde Vasculaire, Nefro Vasculaire Geneeskunde, Cardiovasculaire Epi Team 5, Cardiovasculaire Epidemiologie, Seekircher, Lisa, Tschiderer, Lena, Lind, Lars, Safarova, Maya S., Kavousi, Maryam, Ikram, M. Arfan, Lonn, Eva, Yusuf, Salim, Grobbee, Diederick E., Kastelein, John J.P., Visseren, Frank L.J., Walters, Matthew, Dawson, Jesse, Higgins, Peter, Agewall, Stefan, Catapano, Alberico, De Groot, Eric, Espeland, Mark A., Klingenschmid, Gerhard, Magliano, Dianna, Olsen, Michael H., Preiss, David, Sander, Dirk, Skilton, Michael, Zozulińska-Ziółkiewicz, Dorota A., Grooteman, Muriel P.C., Blankestijn, Peter J., Kitagawa, Kazuo, Okazaki, Shuhei, Manzi, Maria V., Mancusi, Costantino, Izzo, Raffaele, Desvarieux, Moise, Rundek, Tatjana, Gerstein, Hertzel C., Bots, Michiel L., Sweeting, Michael J., Lorenz, Matthias W., Willeit, Peter, Global Health, Circulatory Health, JC onderzoeksprogramma Cardiovasculaire Epidemiologie, Interne Geneeskunde Vasculaire, Nefro Vasculaire Geneeskunde, Cardiovasculaire Epi Team 5, Cardiovasculaire Epidemiologie, Seekircher, Lisa, Tschiderer, Lena, Lind, Lars, Safarova, Maya S., Kavousi, Maryam, Ikram, M. Arfan, Lonn, Eva, Yusuf, Salim, Grobbee, Diederick E., Kastelein, John J.P., Visseren, Frank L.J., Walters, Matthew, Dawson, Jesse, Higgins, Peter, Agewall, Stefan, Catapano, Alberico, De Groot, Eric, Espeland, Mark A., Klingenschmid, Gerhard, Magliano, Dianna, Olsen, Michael H., Preiss, David, Sander, Dirk, Skilton, Michael, Zozulińska-Ziółkiewicz, Dorota A., Grooteman, Muriel P.C., Blankestijn, Peter J., Kitagawa, Kazuo, Okazaki, Shuhei, Manzi, Maria V., Mancusi, Costantino, Izzo, Raffaele, Desvarieux, Moise, Rundek, Tatjana, Gerstein, Hertzel C., Bots, Michiel L., Sweeting, Michael J., Lorenz, Matthias W., and Willeit, Peter

Published
2023

43. Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease: an individual-participant-data meta-analysis

Author

Willeit, Peter, Kaptoge, Stephen, Welsh, Paul, Butterworth, Adam S, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Spackman, Sarah A, Pennells, Lisa, Gao, Pei, Burgess, Stephen, Freitag, Daniel F, Sweeting, Michael, Wood, Angela M, Cook, Nancy R, Judd, Suzanne, Trompet, Stella, Nambi, Vijay, Olsen, Michael Hecht, Everett, Brendan M, Kee, Frank, Ärnlöv, Johan, Salomaa, Veikko, Levy, Daniel, Kauhanen, Jussi, Laukkanen, Jari A, Kavousi, Maryam, Ninomiya, Toshiharu, Casas, Juan-Pablo, Daniels, Lori B, Lind, Lars, Kistorp, Caroline N, Rosenberg, Jens, Mueller, Thomas, Rubattu, Speranza, Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B, Franco, Oscar H, de Lemos, James A, Luchner, Andreas, Kizer, Jorge R, Kiechl, Stefan, Salonen, Jukka T, Wannamethee, S Goya, de Boer, Rudolf A, Nordestgaard, Børge G, Andersson, Jonas, Jørgensen, Torben, Melander, Olle, Ballantyne, Christie M, DeFilippi, Christopher, Ridker, Paul M, Cushman, Mary, Rosamond, Wayne D, Thompson, Simon G, Gudnason, Vilmundur, Sattar, Naveed, Danesh, John, and Di Angelantonio, Emanuele

Published
2016
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44. Consumption of Meat, Fish, Dairy Products, and Eggs and Risk of Ischemic Heart Disease: A Prospective Study of 7198 Incident Cases Among 409 885 Participants in the Pan-European EPIC Cohort

Author

Key, Timothy J., Appleby, Paul N., Bradbury, Kathryn E., Sweeting, Michael, Wood, Angela, Johansson, Ingegerd, Kühn, Tilman, Steur, Marinka, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Wennberg, Maria, Lund Würtz, Anne Mette, Agudo, Antonio, Andersson, Jonas, Arriola, Larraitz, Boeing, Heiner, Boer, Jolanda M.A., Bonnet, Fabrice, Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine, Cross, Amanda J., Ericson, Ulrika, Fagherazzi, Guy, Ferrari, Pietro, Gunter, Marc, Huerta, José María, Katzke, Verena, Khaw, Kay-Tee, Krogh, Vittorio, La Vecchia, Carlo, Matullo, Giuseppe, Moreno-Iribas, Conchi, Naska, Androniki, Nilsson, Lena Maria, Olsen, Anja, Overvad, Kim, Palli, Domenico, Panico, Salvatore, Molina-Portillo, Elena, Quirós, J. Ramón, Skeie, Guri, Sluijs, Ivonne, Sonestedt, Emily, Stepien, Magdalena, Tjønneland, Anne, Trichopoulou, Antonia, Tumino, Rosario, Tzoulaki, Ioanna, van der Schouw, Yvonne T., Verschuren, W.M. Monique, di Angelantonio, Emanuele, Langenberg, Claudia, Forouhi, Nita, Wareham, Nick, Butterworth, Adam, Riboli, Elio, and Danesh, John

Published
2019
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46. Prevalence of opioid dependence in New South Wales, Australia, 2014–16: Indirect estimation from multiple data sources using a Bayesian approach.

Author

Downing, Beatrice C., Hickman, Matthew, Jones, Nicola R., Larney, Sarah, Sweeting, Michael J., Xu, Yixin, Farrell, Michael, Degenhardt, Louisa, and Jones, Hayley E.

Subjects
DRUG addiction, CONFIDENCE intervals, AGE distribution, SEX distribution, RESEARCH funding, OPIOID analgesics, STATISTICAL models, PROBABILITY theory
Abstract

Aims: To estimate the prevalence of, and number of unobserved people with opioid dependence by sex and age group in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Design: We applied a Bayesian statistical modelling approach to opioid agonist treatment records linked to adverse event rate data. We estimated prevalence from three types of adverse event separately: opioid mortality, opioid‐poisoning hospitalizations and opioid‐related charges. We extended the model and produced prevalence estimates from a 'multi‐source' model based on all three types of adverse event data. Setting, Participants and Measurements: This study was conducted in NSW, Australia, 2014–16 using data from the Opioid Agonist Treatment and Safety (OATS) study, which included all people who had received treatment for opioid dependence in NSW. Aggregate data were obtained on numbers of adverse events in NSW. Rates of each adverse event type within the OATS cohort were modelled. Population data were provided by State and Commonwealth agencies. Findings Prevalence of opioid dependence among those aged 15–64 years in 2016 was estimated to be 0.96% (95% credible interval [CrI] = 0.82%, 1.12%) from the mortality model, 0.75% (95% CrI = 0.70%, 0.83%) from hospitalizations, 0.95% (95% CrI = 0.90%, 0.99%) from charges and 0.92% (95% CrI = 0.88%, 0.96%) from the multi‐source model. Of the estimated 46 460 (95% CrI = 44 680, 48 410) people with opioid dependence in 2016 from the multi‐source model, approximately one‐third (16 750, 95% CrI = 14 960, 18 690) had no record of opioid agonist treatment within the last 4 years. From the multi‐source model, prevalence in 2016 was estimated to be 1.24% (95% CrI = 1.18%, 1.31%) in men aged 15–44, 1.22% (95% CrI = 1.14%, 1.31%) in men 45–64, 0.63% (95% CrI = 0.59%, 0.68%) in women aged 15–44 and 0.56% (95% CrI = 0.50%, 0.63%) in women aged 45–64. Conclusions: A Bayesian statistical approach to estimate prevalence from multiple adverse event types simultaneously calculates that the estimated prevalence of opioid dependence in NSW, Australia in 2016 was 0.92%, higher than previous estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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47. Acute heart failure presentation, management and outcomes in cancer patients: a national longitudinal study

Author

Coles, Briana, primary, Welch, Catherine A, additional, Motiwale, Rishabh S, additional, Teece, Lucy, additional, Oliver-Williams, Clare, additional, Weston, Clive, additional, de Belder, Mark A, additional, Lambert, Paul C, additional, Rutherford, Mark J, additional, Paley, Lizz, additional, Kadam, Umesh T, additional, Lawson, Claire A, additional, Deanfield, John, additional, Peake, Michael D, additional, McDonagh, Theresa, additional, Sweeting, Michael J, additional, and Adlam, David, additional

Published
2023
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48. Abstract P6-08-04: Geographical variation of social deprivation, cardiovascular and other comorbidities in 226,516 patients with early breast cancer in England: results from a National Registry Dataset Analysis

Author

Waterhouse, Jasmin V, primary, Welch, Catherine A., additional, Battisti, Nicolo M.L., additional, Adlam, David, additional, Sweeting, Michael J., additional, Paley, Lizz, additional, Lambert, Paul, additional, Deanfield, John E., additional, de Belder, Mark, additional, Peake, Michael D, additional, and Ring, Alistair, additional

Published
2023
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49. Impact of a post‐donation hemoglobin testing strategy on efficiency and safety of whole blood donation in England: A modeling study

Author

Kim, Lois G., primary, Bolton, Thomas, additional, Sweeting, Michael J., additional, Bell, Steven, additional, Fahle, Sarah, additional, McMahon, Amy, additional, Walker, Matthew, additional, Ferguson, Eamonn, additional, Miflin, Gail, additional, Roberts, David J., additional, Di Angelantonio, Emanuele, additional, and Wood, Angela M., additional

Published
2023
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