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Water availability is a major factor constraining humanity's ability to meet the future food and energy needs of a growing and increasingly affluent human population. Water plays an important role in the production of energy, including renewable energy sources and the extraction of unconventional fossil fuels that are expected to become important players in future energy security. The emergent competition for water between the food and energy systems is increasingly recognized in the concept of the “food-energy-water nexus.” The nexus between food and water is made even more complex by the globalization of agriculture and rapid growth in food trade, which results in a massive virtual transfer of water among regions and plays an important role in the food and water security of some regions. This review explores multiple components of the food-energy-water nexus and highlights possible approaches that could be used to meet food and energy security with the limited renewable water resources of the planet. Despite clear tensions inherent in meeting the growing and changing demand for food and energy in the 21st century, the inherent linkages among food, water, and energy systems can offer an opportunity for synergistic strategies aimed at resilient food, water, and energy security, such as the circular economy.

Climate change is expected to impact the habitability of many places around the world in significant and unprecedented ways in the coming decades. While previous studies have provided estimates of populations potentially exposed to various climate impacts, little work has been done to assess the number of people that may actually be displaced or where they will choose to go. Here we modify a diffusion-based model of human mobility in combination with population, geographic, and climatic data to estimate the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants as driven by sea level rise (SLR) in Bangladesh in the years 2050 and 2100. Using only maps of population and elevation, we predict that 0.9 million people (by year 2050) to 2.1 million people (by year 2100) could be displaced by direct inundation and that almost all of this movement will occur locally within the southern half of the country. We also find that destination locations should anticipate substantial additional demands on jobs (594 000), housing (197 000), and food (783 × 109 calories) by mid-century as a result of those displaced by SLR. By linking the sources of migrants displaced by SLR with their likely destinations, we demonstrate an effective approach for predicting climate-driven migrant flows, especially in data-limited settings.

The global distribution of food production is unequal relative to the distribution of human populations. International trade can increase or decrease inequality in food availability, but little is known about how specific countries and commodities contribute to this redistribution. We present a method based on the Gini coefficient for evaluating the contributions of country and commodity specific trade to inequality in the global food system. We applied the method to global food production and trade data for the years 1986-2011 to identify the specific countries and commodities that contribute to increasing and decreasing inequality in global food availability relative to food production. Overall, international trade reduced inequality in food availability by 25%-33% relative to the distribution of food production, depending on the year. Across all years, about 58% of the total trade links acted to reduce inequality with ∼4% of the links providing 95% of the reduction in inequality. Exports from United States of America, Malaysia, Argentina, and Canada are particularly important in decreasing inequality. Specific commodities that reduce inequality when traded include cereals and vegetables. Some trade connections contribute to increasing inequality, but this effect is mostly concentrated within a small number of commodities including fruits, stimulants, and nuts. In terms of specific countries, exports from Slovenia, Oman, Singapore, and Germany act to increase overall inequality. Collectively, our analysis and results represent an opportunity for building an enhanced understanding of global-scale patterns in food availability.

Spatially diverse trends in population growth, climate change, industrialization, urbanization and economic development are expected to change future food supply and demand. These changes may affect the suitability of land for food production, implying elevated risks especially for resourceconstrained, food-importing countries.Wepresent the evolution of biophysical redundancy for agricultural production at country level, from 1992 to 2012. Biophysical redundancy, defined as unused biotic and abiotic environmental resources, is represented by the potential food production of 'spare land', available water resources (i.e., not already used for human activities), as well as production increases through yield gap closure on cultivated areas and potential agricultural areas. In 2012, the biophysical redundancy of 75 (48) countries, mainly in North Africa, Western Europe, the Middle East and Asia, was insufficient to produce the caloric nutritional needs for at least 50% (25%) of their population during a year. Biophysical redundancy has decreased in the last two decades in 102 out of 155 countries, 11 of these went from high to limited redundancy, and nine of these from limited to very low redundancy. Although the variability of the drivers of change across different countries is high, improvements in yield and population growth have a clear impact on the decreases of redundancy towards the very low redundancy category.Wetook a more detailed look at countries classified as 'Low Income Economies (LIEs)' since they are particularly vulnerable to domestic or external food supply changes, due to their limited capacity to offset for food supply decreases with higher purchasing power on the international market. Currently, nine LIEs have limited or very low biophysical redundancy. Many of these showed a decrease in redundancy over the last two decades, which is not always linked with improvements in per capita food availability.

Metapopulation models have been instrumental in quantifying the ecological impact of landscape structure on the survival of a focal species. However, extensions to multiple species with arbitrary dispersal networks often rely on phenomenological assumptions that inevitably limit their scope. Here, we propose a multilayer network model of competitive dispersing metacommunities to investigate how spatially structured environments impact species coexistence and ecosystem stability. We introduce the concept of landscape-mediated fitness, quantifying how fit a species is in a given environment in terms of colonization and extinction. We show that, when all environments are equivalent, one species excludes all the others-except the marginal case where species fitnesses are in exact trade-off. However, we prove that stable coexistence becomes possible in sufficiently heterogeneous environments by introducing spatial disorder in the model and solving it exactly in the mean-field limit. Crucially, coexistence is supported by the spontaneous localization of species through the emergence of ecological niches. We show that our results remain qualitatively valid in arbitrary dispersal networks, where topological features can improve species coexistence by buffering competition. Finally, we employ our model to study how correlated heterogeneity promotes spatial ecological patterns in realistic terrestrial and riverine landscapes. Our work provides a framework to understand how landscape structure enables coexistence in metacommunities by acting as the substrate for ecological interactions., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

In this Letter, we explore the dynamics of species abundances within ecological communities using the generalized Lotka-Volterra (GLV) model. At variance with previous approaches, we present an analysis of GLV dynamics with temporal stochastic fluctuations in interaction strengths between species. We develop a dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) tailored for scenarios with colored noise interactions, which we term annealed disorder, and simple functional responses. Our DMFT framework enables us to show that annealed disorder acts as an effective environmental noise; i.e., every species experiences a time-dependent environment shaped by the collective presence of all other species. We then derive analytical predictions for the species abundance distribution that well match empirical observations. Our results suggest that annealed disorder in interaction strengths favors species coexistence and leads to a large pool of very rare species in the systems, supporting the insurance theory of biodiversity. This Letter offers new insights not only into the modeling of large ecosystem dynamics but also proposes novel methodologies for examining ecological systems.

The ability to solve complex tasks relies on the adaptive changes occurring in the spatio-temporal organization of brain activity under different conditions. Altered flexibility in these dynamics can lead to impaired cognitive performance, manifesting for instance as difficulties in attention regulation, distraction inhibition, and behavioral adaptation. Such impairments result in decreased efficiency and increased effort in accomplishing goal-directed tasks. Therefore, developing quantitative measures that can directly assess the effort involved in these transitions using neural data is of paramount importance. In this study, we propose a framework to associate cognitive effort during the performance of tasks with electroencephalography (EEG) activation patterns. The methodology relies on the identification of discrete dynamical states (EEG microstates) and optimal transport theory. To validate the effectiveness of this framework, we apply it to a dataset collected during a spatial version of the Stroop task, a cognitive test in which participants respond to one aspect of a stimulus while ignoring another, often conflicting, aspect. The Stroop task is a cognitive test where participants must respond to one aspect of a stimulus while ignoring another, often conflicting, aspect. Our findings reveal an increased cost linked to cognitive effort, thus confirming the framework's effectiveness in capturing and quantifying cognitive transitions. By utilizing a fully data-driven method, this research opens up fresh perspectives for physiologically describing cognitive effort within the brain., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Barzon et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Recent advancements in next-generation sequencing have revolutionized our understanding of the human microbiome. Despite this progress, challenges persist in comprehending the microbiome's influence on disease, hindered by technical complexities in species classification, abundance estimation, and data compositionality. At the same time, the existence of macroecological laws describing the variation and diversity in microbial communities irrespective of their environment has been recently proposed using 16s data and explained by a simple phenomenological model of population dynamics. We here investigate the relationship between dysbiosis, i.e. in unhealthy individuals there are deviations from the "regular" composition of the gut microbial community, and the existence of macro-ecological emergent law in microbial communities. We first quantitatively reconstruct these patterns at the species level using shotgun data, and addressing the consequences of sampling effects and statistical errors on ecological patterns. We then ask if such patterns can discriminate between healthy and unhealthy cohorts. Concomitantly, we evaluate the efficacy of different statistical generative models, which incorporate sampling and population dynamics, to describe such patterns and distinguish which are expected by chance, versus those that are potentially informative about disease states or other biological drivers. A critical aspect of our analysis is understanding the relationship between model parameters, which have clear ecological interpretations, and the state of the gut microbiome, thereby enabling the generation of synthetic compositional data that distinctively represent healthy and unhealthy individuals. Our approach, grounded in theoretical ecology and statistical physics, allows for a robust comparison of these models with empirical data, enhancing our understanding of the strengths and limitations of simple microbial models of population dynamics., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Pasqualini et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Complex systems are characterized by emergent patterns created by the nontrivial interplay between dynamical processes and the networks of interactions on which these processes unfold. Topological or dynamical descriptors alone are not enough to fully embrace this interplay in all its complexity, and many times one has to resort to dynamics-specific approaches that limit a comprehension of general principles. To address this challenge, we employ a metric-that we name Jacobian distance-which captures the spatiotemporal spreading of perturbations, enabling us to uncover the latent geometry inherent in network-driven processes. We compute the Jacobian distance for a broad set of nonlinear dynamical models on synthetic and real-world networks of high interest for applications from biological to ecological and social contexts. We show, analytically and computationally, that the process-driven latent geometry of a complex network is sensitive to both the specific features of the dynamics and the topological properties of the network. This translates into potential mismatches between the functional and the topological mesoscale organization, which we explain by means of the spectrum of the Jacobian matrix. Finally, we demonstrate that the Jacobian distance offers a clear advantage with respect to traditional methods when studying human brain networks. In particular, we show that it outperforms classical network communication models in explaining functional communities from structural data, therefore highlighting its potential in linking structure and function in the brain., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

The understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics, and in particular the mechanism of coexistence of species, is still fragmentary and in need of test bench model systems. To this aim we developed a variant of SELEX in vitro selection to study the evolution of a population of ∼10 15 single-strand DNA oligonucleotide 'individuals'. We begin with a seed of random sequences which we select via affinity capture from ∼10 12 DNA oligomers of fixed sequence ('resources') over which they compete. At each cycle ('generation'), the ecosystem is replenished via PCR amplification of survivors. Massive parallel sequencing indicates that across generations the variety of sequences ('species') drastically decreases, while some of them become populous and dominate the ecosystem. The simplicity of our approach, in which survival is granted by hybridization, enables a quantitative investigation of fitness through a statistical analysis of binding energies. We find that the strength of individual resource binding dominates the selection in the first generations, while inter- and intra-individual interactions become important in later stages, in parallel with the emergence of prototypical forms of mutualism and parasitism., Competing Interests: LC, FM, AT, EP, SS, TB No competing interests declared, (© 2023, Casiraghi, Mambretti et al.)

In recent years, the application of metagenomics techniques has advanced our understanding of plankton communities and their global distribution. Despite this progress, the relationship between the abundance distribution of diatom species and varying marine environmental conditions remains poorly understood. This study, leveraging data from the Tara Oceans expedition, tests the hypothesis that diatoms in sampled stations display a consistent species abundance distribution structure, as though they were sampled from a single ocean-wide metacommunity. Using a neutral sampling theory, we thus develop a framework to estimate the structure and diversity of diatom communities at each sampling station given the shape of the species abundance distribution of the metacommunity and the information of a reference station. Our analysis reveals a substantial temperature gradient in the discrepancies between predicted and observed biodiversity across the sampled stations. These findings challenge the hypothesis of a single neutral metacommunity, indicating that environmental differences substantially influence both the composition and structure of diatom communities.

The network control theory framework holds great potential to inform neurostimulation experiments aimed at inducing desired activity states in the brain. However, the current applicability of the framework is limited by inappropriate modeling of brain dynamics, and an overly ambitious focus on whole-brain activity control. In this work, we leverage recent progress in linear modeling of brain dynamics (effective connectivity) and we exploit the concept of target controllability to focus on the control of a single region or a small subnetwork of nodes. We discuss when control may be possible with a reasonably low energy cost and few stimulation loci, and give general predictions on where to stimulate depending on the subset of regions one wishes to control. Importantly, using the robustly asymmetric effective connectome instead of the symmetric structural connectome (as in previous research), we highlight the fundamentally different roles in- and out-hubs have in the control problem, and the relevance of inhibitory connections. The large degree of inter-individual variation in the effective connectome implies that the control problem is best formulated at the individual level, but we discuss to what extent group results may still prove useful., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Manjunatha et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Continuous and significant progress in sequencing technologies and bioinformatics pipelines has revolutionized our comprehension of microbial communities, especially for human microbiomes. However, most studies have focused on studying the taxonomic composition of the microbiomes and we are still not able to characterize dysbiosis and unveil the underlying ecological consequences. This study explores the emergent organization of functional abundances and correlations of gut microbiomes in health and disease. Leveraging metagenomic sequences, taxonomic and functional tables are constructed, enabling comparative analysis. First, we show that emergent taxonomic and functional patterns are not useful to characterize dysbiosis. Then, through differential abundance analyses applied to functions, we reveal distinct functional compositions in healthy versus unhealthy microbiomes. In addition, we inquire into the functional correlation structure, revealing significant differences between the healthy and unhealthy groups, which may significantly contribute to understanding dysbiosis. Our study demonstrates that scrutinizing the functional organization in the microbiome provides novel insights into the underlying state of the microbiome. The shared data structure underlying the functional and taxonomic compositions allows for a comprehensive macroecological examination. Our findings not only shed light on dysbiosis, but also underscore the importance of studying functional interrelationships for a nuanced understanding of the dynamics of the microbial community. This research proposes a novel approach, bridging the gap between microbial ecology and functional analyses, promising a deeper understanding of the intricate world of the gut microbiota and its implications for human health.

We address a generalization of the concept of metapopulation capacity for trees and networks acting as the template for ecological interactions. The original measure had been derived from an insightful phenomenological model and is based on the leading eigenvalue of a suitable landscape matrix. It yields a versatile predictor of metapopulation persistence through a threshold value of the eigenvalue determined by ecological features of the focal species. Here, we present an analytical solution to a fundamental microscopic model that incorporates key ingredients of metapopulation dynamics and explicitly distinguishes between individuals comprising the "settled population" and "explorers" seeking colonization. Our approach accounts for general network characteristics (in particular graph-driven directional dispersal which is known to significantly constrain many ecological estimates) and yields a generalized version of the original model, to which it reduces for particular cases. Through examples, including real landscapes used as the template, we compare the predictions from our approach with those of the standard model. Results suggest that in several cases of practical interest, differences are significant. We also examine, with both models, how changes in habitat fragmentation, including removal, addition, or alteration in size, affect metapopulation persistence. The current approach demonstrates a high level of flexibility, enabling the incorporation of diverse "microscopic" elements and their impact on the resulting biodiversity landscape pattern.

Between 2019 and 2020, during the country's hottest and driest year on record, Australia experienced a dramatic bushfire season, with catastrophic ecological and environmental consequences. Several studies highlighted how such abrupt changes in fire regimes may have been in large part a consequence of climate change and other anthropogenic transformations. Here, we analyze the monthly evolution of the burned area in Australia from 2000 to 2020, obtained via satellite imaging through the MODIS platform. We find that the 2019-2020 peak is associated with signatures typically found near critical points. We introduce a modeling framework based on forest-fire models to study the properties of these emergent fire outbreaks, showing that the behavior observed during the 2019-2020 fire season matches the one of a percolation transition, where system-size outbreaks appear. Our model also highlights the existence of an absorbing phase transition that might be eventually crossed, after which the vegetation cannot recover., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2023 The Authors.)

The common intuition among the ecologists of the midtwentieth century was that large ecosystems should be more stable than those with a smaller number of species. This view was challenged by Robert May, who found a stability bound for randomly assembled ecosystems; they become unstable for a sufficiently large number of species. In the present work, we show that May's bound greatly changes when the past population densities of a species affect its own current density. This is a common feature in real systems, where the effects of species' interactions may appear after a time lag rather than instantaneously. The local stability of these models with self-interaction is described by bounds, which we characterize in the parameter space. We find a critical delay curve that separates the region of stability from that of instability, and correspondingly, we identify a critical frequency curve that provides the characteristic frequencies of a system at the instability threshold. Finally, we calculate analytically the distributions of eigenvalues that generalize Wigner's as well as Girko's laws. Interestingly, we find that, for sufficiently large delays, the eigenvalues of a randomly coupled system are complex even when the interactions are symmetric.