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Abstract Background Predicting antimicrobial resistance (AMR), a top global health threat, nationwide at an aggregate hospital level could help target interventions. Using machine learning, we exploit historical AMR and antimicrobial usage to predict future AMR. Methods Antimicrobial use and AMR prevalence in bloodstream infections in hospitals in England were obtained per hospital group (Trust) and financial year (FY, April–March) for 22 pathogen–antibiotic combinations (FY2016-2017 to FY2021-2022). Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model predictions were compared to the previous value taken forwards, the difference between the previous two years taken forwards and linear trend forecasting (LTF). XGBoost feature importances were calculated to aid interpretability. Results Here we show that XGBoost models achieve the best predictive performance. Relatively limited year-to-year variability in AMR prevalence within Trust–pathogen–antibiotic combinations means previous value taken forwards also achieves a low mean absolute error (MAE), similar to or slightly higher than XGBoost. Using the difference between the previous two years taken forward or LTF performs consistently worse. XGBoost considerably outperforms all other methods in Trusts with a larger change in AMR prevalence from FY2020-2021 (last training year) to FY2021-2022 (held-out test set). Feature importance values indicate that besides historical resistance to the same pathogen–antibiotic combination as the outcome, complex relationships between resistance in different pathogens to the same antibiotic/antibiotic class and usage are exploited for predictions. These are generally among the top ten features ranked according to their mean absolute SHAP values. Conclusions Year-to-year resistance has generally changed little within Trust–pathogen–antibiotic combinations. In those with larger changes, XGBoost models can improve predictions, enabling informed decisions, efficient resource allocation, and targeted interventions.

Abstract Background An outbreak of acute severe hepatitis of unknown aetiology (AS-Hep-UA) in children during 2022 was subsequently linked to infections with adenovirus-associated virus 2 and other ‘helper viruses’, including human adenovirus. It is possible that evidence of such an outbreak could be identified at a population level based on routine data captured by electronic health records (EHR). Methods We used anonymised EHR to collate retrospective data for all emergency presentations to Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust in the UK, between 2016–2022, for all ages from 18 months and older. We investigated clinical characteristics and temporal distribution of presentations of acute hepatitis and of adenovirus infections based on laboratory data and clinical coding. We relaxed the stringent case definition adopted during the AS-Hep-UA to identify all cases of acute hepatitis with unknown aetiology (termed AHUA). We compared events within the outbreak period (defined as 1st Oct 2021—31 Aug 2022) to the rest of our study period. Results Over the study period, there were 903,433 acute presentations overall, of which 391 (0.04%) were classified as AHUA. AHUA episodes had significantly higher critical care admission rates (p

The COVID-19-Curated and Open Analysis and Research Platform (CO-CONNECT) project worked with 22 organizations across the United Kingdom to build a federated platform, enabling researchers to instantaneously and dynamically query federated datasets to find relevant data for their study. Finding relevant data takes time and effort, reducing the efficiency of research. Although data controllers could understand the value of such a system, there were significant challenges and delays in setting up the platform in response to COVID-19. This paper aims to present the challenges and lessons learned from the CO-CONNECT project to support other similar initiatives in the future. The project encountered many challenges, including the impacts of lockdowns on collaboration, understanding the new architecture, competing demands on people’s time during a pandemic, data governance approvals, different levels of technical capabilities, data transformation to a common data model, access to granular-level laboratory data, and how to engage public and patient representatives meaningfully on a highly technical project. To overcome these challenges, we developed a range of methods to support data partners such as explainer videos; regular, short, “touch base” videoconference calls; drop-in workshops; live demos; and a standardized technical onboarding documentation pack. A 4-stage data governance process emerged. The patient and public representatives were fully integrated team members. Persistence, patience, and understanding were key. We make 8 recommendations to change the landscape for future similar initiatives. The new architecture and processes developed are being built upon for non–COVID-19–related data, providing an infrastructural legacy.

Introduction: Health care workers (HCWs) have been at increased risk of infection during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and as essential workers have been prioritised for vaccination. Due to increased exposure HCW are considered a predictor of what might happen in the general population, particularly working age adults. This study aims to summarise effect of vaccination in this ‘at risk’ cohort. Methods: Ovid MEDLINE and Embase were searched, and 358 individual articles were identified. Of these 49 met the inclusion criteria for review and 14 were included in a meta-analysis. Results: Participants included were predominantly female and working age. Median time to infection was 51 days. Reported vaccine effectiveness against infection, symptomatic infection, and infection requiring hospitalisation were between 5 and 100 %, 34 and 100 %, and 65 and 100 % (respectively). No vaccinated HCW deaths were recorded in any study. Pooled estimates of protection against infection, symptomatic infection, and hospitalisation were, respectively, 84.7 % (95 % CI 72.6–91.5 %, p

Abstract Plasmids carry genes conferring antimicrobial resistance and other clinically important traits, and contribute to the rapid dissemination of such genes. Previous studies using complete plasmid assemblies, which are essential for reliable inference, have been small and/or limited to plasmids carrying antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs). In this study, we sequenced 1,880 complete plasmids from 738 isolates from bloodstream infections in Oxfordshire, UK. The bacteria had been originally isolated in 2009 (194 isolates) and 2018 (368 isolates), plus a stratified selection from intervening years (176 isolates). We demonstrate that plasmids are largely, but not entirely, constrained to a single host species, although there is substantial overlap between species of plasmid gene-repertoire. Most ARGs are carried by a relatively small number of plasmid groups with biological features that are predictable. Plasmids carrying ARGs (including those encoding carbapenemases) share a putative ‘backbone’ of core genes with those carrying no such genes. These findings suggest that future surveillance should, in addition to tracking plasmids currently associated with clinically important genes, focus on identifying and monitoring the dissemination of high-risk plasmid groups with the potential to rapidly acquire and disseminate these genes.

Abstract Background Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing of hospitalised patients began in April-2020, with twice weekly healthcare worker (HCW) testing introduced in November-2020. Guidance recommending asymptomatic testing was withdrawn in August-2022. Assessing the impact of this decision from data alone is challenging due to concurrent changes in infection prevention and control practices, community transmission rates, and a reduction in ascertainment rate from reduced testing. Computational modelling is an effective tool for estimating the impact of this change. Methods Using a computational model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in an English hospital we estimate the effectiveness of several asymptomatic testing strategies, namely; (1) Symptomatic testing of patients and HCWs, (2) testing of all patients on admission with/without repeat testing on days 3 and 5–7, and (3) symptomatic testing plus twice weekly asymptomatic HCW testing with 70% compliance. We estimate the number of patient and HCW infections, HCW absences, number of tests, and tests per case averted or absence avoided, with differing community prevalence rates over a 12-week period. Results Testing asymptomatic patients on admission reduces the rate of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection by 8.1–21.5%. Additional testing at days 3 and 5–7 post admission does not significantly reduce infection rates. Twice weekly asymptomatic HCW testing can reduce the proportion of HCWs infected by 1.0-4.4% and monthly absences by 0.4–0.8%. Testing asymptomatic patients repeatedly requires up to 5.5 million patient tests over the period, and twice weekly asymptomatic HCW testing increases the total tests to almost 30 million. The most efficient patient testing strategy (in terms of tests required to prevent a single patient infection) was testing asymptomatic patients on admission across all prevalence levels. The least efficient was repeated testing of patients with twice weekly asymptomatic HCW testing in a low prevalence scenario, and in all other prevalence levels symptomatic patient testing with regular HCW testing was least efficient. Conclusions Testing patients on admission can reduce the rate of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection but there is little benefit of additional post-admission testing. Asymptomatic HCW testing has little incremental benefit for reducing patient cases at low prevalence but has a potential role at higher prevalence or with low community transmission. A full health-economic evaluation is required to determine the cost-effectiveness of these strategies.

Abstract Background Globally, detections of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) colonisations and infections are increasing. The spread of these highly resistant bacteria poses a serious threat to public health. However, understanding of CPE transmission and evidence on effectiveness of control measures is severely lacking. This paper provides evidence to inform effective admission screening protocols, which could be important in controlling nosocomial CPE transmission. Methods CPE transmission within an English hospital setting was simulated with a data-driven individual-based mathematical model. This model was used to evaluate the ability of the 2016 England CPE screening recommendations, and of potential alternative protocols, to identify patients with CPE-colonisation on admission (including those colonised during previous stays or from elsewhere). The model included nosocomial transmission from colonised and infected patients, as well as environmental contamination. Model parameters were estimated using primary data where possible, including estimation of transmission using detailed epidemiological data within a Bayesian framework. Separate models were parameterised to represent hospitals in English areas with low and high CPE risk (based on prevalence). Results The proportion of truly colonised admissions which met the 2016 screening criteria was 43% in low-prevalence and 54% in high-prevalence areas respectively. Selection of CPE carriers for screening was improved in low-prevalence areas by adding readmission as a screening criterion, which doubled how many colonised admissions were selected. A minority of CPE carriers were confirmed as CPE positive during their hospital stay (10 and 14% in low- and high-prevalence areas); switching to a faster screening test pathway with a single-swab test (rather than three swab regimen) increased the overall positive predictive value with negligible reduction in negative predictive value. Conclusions Using a novel within-hospital CPE transmission model, this study assesses CPE admission screening protocols, across the range of CPE prevalence observed in England. It identifies protocol changes—adding readmissions to screening criteria and a single-swab test pathway—which could detect similar numbers of CPE carriers (or twice as many in low CPE prevalence areas), but faster, and hence with lower demand on pre-emptive infection-control resources. Study findings can inform interventions to control this emerging threat, although further work is required to understand within-hospital transmission sources.

The COVID-19 pandemic brought global disruptions to the way universities operate. Online learning abruptly took priority, as the physical campuses in Australian universities became deserted. Staff had to instantly adapt to major changes in work practices, whilst continuing to support students’ engagement and maintain quality teaching and learning. This article discusses how change fatigue during the pandemic impacted the wellbeing of staff working in the enabling education sector. As staff and student wellbeing is interdependent, gaining a better understanding of the influences on staff wellbeing in the post-pandemic era is worth exploring in the context of discussions around student wellbeing and success. Autoethnographical reflections of eight practitioners at six Australian universities working in teaching, leadership and professional practice in enabling education, were thematically analysed. Emergent data reveals the superordinate theme of change fatigue and sub-themes of time, online fatigue, and emotional labour. This article highlights the impact of workload intensification and change fatigue in educators. Our findings demonstrated that practitioners prioritise their workload and students, to the detriment of their own wellbeing. These findings hold relevance for institutions as they look to address student wellbeing and success, and highlights the value of embedding cultures of care and compassion across all levels of the university.

Abstract Background Participant involvement in research studies is not a new concept, yet barriers to implementation remain and application varies. This is particularly true for pandemic response research studies, where timeframes are condensed, pressure is high and the value and inclusion of participant involvement can be overlooked. The SIREN Participant Involvement Panel (PIP) provides a case study for participant involvement in pandemic research, working in partnership with people who the research is for and about. Methods SIREN and the British Society for Immunology (BSI) recruited and ran two phases of the PIP, involving 15 members in total over a 16-month period. Phase 1 ran between January and August 2022 and Phase 2 between October 2022 and March 2023. Activity figures including recruitment interest and PIP meeting attendance were recorded. To evaluate how the PIP has influenced SIREN, feedback was collected from (a) researchers presenting at the PIP and (b) PIP members themselves. Evaluation at the end of Phase 1 informed our approach to Phase 2. Thematic grouping was planned to identify key lessons learned. Results Applications increased from n = 30 to n = 485 between Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the PIP, a more than 15-fold increase. The SIREN PIP positively impacted the design, implementation and evaluation phases of the study and sub-studies. Feedback from PIP members themselves was positive, with members highlighting that they found the role rewarding and felt valued. Learnings from the PIP have been condensed into five key themes for applying to future pandemic response research studies: the importance of dedicated resources; recruiting the right panel; understanding motivations for participant involvement; providing flexible options for involvement and enabling the early involvement of participants. Conclusions The SIREN PIP has demonstrated the value of actively involving people who research is for and about. The PIP has provided an active feedback mechanism for research and demonstrated a positive influence on both SIREN study researchers and PIP members themselves. This paper makes the case for participant involvement in future pandemic research studies. Future work should include improved training for researchers and we would support the development of a national PIP forum as part of future pandemic research preparedness.

Abstract Pronounced immune escape by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has resulted in many individuals possessing hybrid immunity, generated through a combination of vaccination and infection. Concerns have been raised that omicron breakthrough infections in triple-vaccinated individuals result in poor induction of omicron-specific immunity, and that prior SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with immune dampening. Taking a broad and comprehensive approach, we characterize mucosal and blood immunity to spike and non-spike antigens following BA.1/BA.2 infections in triple mRNA-vaccinated individuals, with and without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. We find that most individuals increase BA.1/BA.2/BA.5-specific neutralizing antibodies following infection, but confirm that the magnitude of increase and post-omicron titres are higher in the infection-naive. In contrast, significant increases in nasal responses, including neutralizing activity against BA.5 spike, are seen regardless of infection history. Spike-specific T cells increase only in infection-naive vaccinees; however, post-omicron T cell responses are significantly higher in the previously-infected, who display a maximally induced response with a highly cytotoxic CD8+ phenotype following their 3rd mRNA vaccine dose. Responses to non-spike antigens increase significantly regardless of prior infection status. These findings suggest that hybrid immunity induced by omicron breakthrough infections is characterized by significant immune enhancement that can help protect against future omicron variants.

Abstract COVID-19 patients at risk of severe disease may be treated with neutralising monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). To minimise virus escape from neutralisation these are administered as combinations e.g. casirivimab+imdevimab or, for antibodies targeting relatively conserved regions, individually e.g. sotrovimab. Unprecedented genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK has enabled a genome-first approach to detect emerging drug resistance in Delta and Omicron cases treated with casirivimab+imdevimab and sotrovimab respectively. Mutations occur within the antibody epitopes and for casirivimab+imdevimab multiple mutations are present on contiguous raw reads, simultaneously affecting both components. Using surface plasmon resonance and pseudoviral neutralisation assays we demonstrate these mutations reduce or completely abrogate antibody affinity and neutralising activity, suggesting they are driven by immune evasion. In addition, we show that some mutations also reduce the neutralising activity of vaccine-induced serum.

Summary: Background: The protection of fourth dose mRNA vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 is relevant to current global policy decisions regarding ongoing booster roll-out. We aimed to estimate the effect of fourth dose vaccination, prior infection, and duration of PCR positivity in a highly-vaccinated and largely prior-COVID-19 infected cohort of UK healthcare workers. Methods: Participants underwent fortnightly PCR and regular antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 and completed symptoms questionnaires. A multi-state model was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection from a fourth dose compared to a waned third dose, with protection from prior infection and duration of PCR positivity jointly estimated. Findings: 1298 infections were detected among 9560 individuals under active follow-up between September 2022 and March 2023. Compared to a waned third dose, fourth dose VE was 13.1% (95% CI 0.9 to 23.8) overall; 24.0% (95% CI 8.5 to 36.8) in the first 2 months post-vaccination, reducing to 10.3% (95% CI −11.4 to 27.8) and 1.7% (95% CI −17.0 to 17.4) at 2–4 and 4–6 months, respectively. Relative to an infection >2 years ago and controlling for vaccination, 63.6% (95% CI 46.9 to 75.0) and 29.1% (95% CI 3.8 to 43.1) greater protection against infection was estimated for an infection within the past 0–6, and 6–12 months, respectively. A fourth dose was associated with greater protection against asymptomatic infection than symptomatic infection, whilst prior infection independently provided more protection against symptomatic infection, particularly if the infection had occurred within the previous 6 months. Duration of PCR positivity was significantly lower for asymptomatic compared to symptomatic infection. Interpretation: Despite rapid waning of protection, vaccine boosters remain an important tool in responding to the dynamic COVID-19 landscape; boosting population immunity in advance of periods of anticipated pressure, such as surging infection rates or emerging variants of concern. Funding: UK Health Security Agency, Medical Research Council, NIHR HPRU Oxford, Bristol, and others.

Objective To explore and model factors affecting antibiotic prescribing decision-making early in the pandemic.Design Semistructured qualitative interview study.Setting National Health Service (NHS) trusts/health boards in England and Wales.Participants Clinicians from NHS trusts/health boards in England and Wales.Method Individual semistructured interviews were conducted with clinicians in six NHS trusts/health boards in England and Wales as part of the Procalcitonin Evaluation of Antibiotic use in COVID-19 Hospitalised patients study, a wider study that included statistical analysis of procalcitonin (PCT) use in hospitals during the first wave of the pandemic. Thematic analysis was used to identify key factors influencing antibiotic prescribing decisions for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia during the first wave of the pandemic (March to May 2020), including how much influence PCT test results had on these decisions.Results During the first wave of the pandemic, recommendations to prescribe antibiotics for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were based on concerns about secondary bacterial infections. However, as clinicians gained more experience with COVID-19, they reported increasing confidence in their ability to distinguish between symptoms and signs caused by SARS-CoV-2 viral infection alone, and secondary bacterial infections. Antibiotic prescribing decisions were influenced by factors such as clinician experience, confidence, senior support, situational factors and organisational influences. A decision-making model was developed.Conclusion This study provides insight into the decision-making process around antibiotic prescribing for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia during the first wave of the pandemic. The importance of clinician experience and of senior review of decisions as factors in optimising antibiotic stewardship is highlighted. In addition, situational and organisational factors were identified that could be optimised. The model presented in the study can be used as a tool to aid understanding of the complexity of the decision-making process around antibiotic prescribing and planning antimicrobial stewardship support in the context of a pandemic.Trial registration number ISRCTN66682918.

Introduction Care home residents have experienced significant morbidity, mortality and disruption following outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2. Regular SARS-CoV-2 testing of care home staff was introduced to reduce transmission of infection, but it is unclear whether this remains beneficial. This trial aims to investigate whether use of regular asymptomatic staff testing, alongside funding to reimburse sick pay for those who test positive and meet costs of employing agency staff, is a feasible and effective strategy to reduce COVID-19 impact in care homes.Methods and analysis The VIVALDI-Clinical Trial is a multicentre, open-label, cluster randomised controlled, phase III/IV superiority trial in up to 280 residential and/or nursing homes in England providing care to adults aged >65 years. All regular and agency staff will be enrolled, excepting those who opt out. Homes will be randomised to the intervention arm (twice weekly asymptomatic staff testing for SARS-CoV-2) or the control arm (current national testing guidance). Staff who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 will self-isolate and receive sick pay. Care providers will be reimbursed for costs associated with employing temporary staff to backfill for absence arising directly from the trial.The trial will be delivered by a multidisciplinary research team through a series of five work packages.The primary outcome is the incidence of COVID-19-related hospital admissions in residents. Secondary outcomes include the number and duration of outbreaks and home closures. Health economic and modelling analyses will investigate the cost-effectiveness and cost consequences of the testing intervention. A process evaluation using qualitative interviews will be conducted to understand intervention roll out and identify areas for optimisation to inform future intervention scale-up, should the testing approach prove effective and cost-effective. Stakeholder engagement will be undertaken to enable the sector to plan for results and their implications and to coproduce recommendations on the use of testing for policy-makers.Ethics and dissemination The study has been approved by the London—Bromley Research Ethics Committee (reference number 22/LO/0846) and the Health Research Authority (22/CAG/0165). The results of the trial will be disseminated regardless of the direction of effect. The publication of the results will comply with a trial-specific publication policy and will include submission to open access journals. A lay summary of the results will also be produced to disseminate the results to participants.Trial registration number ISRCTN13296529.

ABSTRACT Serological correlates of protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection after vaccination (“vaccine breakthrough”) have been described. However, T cell correlates of protection against breakthrough are incompletely defined, especially the specific contributions of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. Here, 279 volunteers in the Protective Immunity from T Cells in Healthcare Workers (PITCH) UK cohort study were enrolled in a nested case-control study. Cases were those who tested SARS-CoV-2 PCR or lateral flow device (LFD) positive after two vaccine doses during the Delta-predominant era (n = 32), while controls were those who did not report a positive test or undergo anti-nucleocapsid immunoglobulin G (IgG) seroconversion during this period (n = 247). Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to vaccination was associated with reduced odds of vaccine breakthrough. Using samples from 28 d after the second vaccine dose, before all breakthroughs occurred, we observed future cases had lower ancestral spike (S)- and receptor binding domain-specific IgG titers and S1- and S2-specific T cell interferon gamma (IFNγ) responses compared with controls, although these differences did not persist when individuals were stratified according to previous infection status before vaccination. In a subset of matched infection-naïve cases and controls, vaccine breakthrough cases had lower CD4+ and CD8+ IFNγ and tumor necrosis factor (TNF) responses to Delta S peptides compared with controls. For CD8+ responses, this difference appeared to be driven by reduced responses to Delta compared with ancestral peptides among cases; this reduced response to Delta peptides was not observed in controls. Our findings support a protective role for T cells against Delta breakthrough infection. IMPORTANCE Defining correlates of protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine breakthrough infection informs vaccine policy for booster doses and future vaccine designs. Existing studies demonstrate humoral correlates of protection, but the role of T cells in protection is still unclear. In this study, we explore antibody and T cell immune responses associated with protection against Delta variant vaccine breakthrough infection in a well-characterized cohort of UK Healthcare Workers (HCWs). We demonstrate evidence to support a role for CD4+ and CD8+ T cells as well as antibodies against Delta vaccine breakthrough infection. In addition, our results suggest a potential role for cross-reactive T cells in vaccine breakthrough.

Since June 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 Immunity and Reinfection Evaluation (SIREN) study has conducted routine PCR testing in UK healthcare workers and sequenced PCR-positive samples. SIREN detected increases in infections and reinfections and detected Omicron subvariant emergence contemporaneous with national surveillance. SIREN methodology can be used for variant surveillance.

Incarcerated students, especially women and Indigenous Australians in custody, are among the most marginalized, oppressed, and invisible identities in Australian society today. These prison-based university students experience not only multi-layered disadvantages that derive from intersecting experiences of oppression, including race, gender, and class, but they are also further disadvantaged by the experience of incarceration itself, despite their attempts to improve their life chances and social positioning through distance education. This is partly due to the challenges of learning within prison environments, including disruptions, disparities, and disconnections in terms of access to digital technologies, digital literacies, and digital channels. The majority of Australian prisoners have no direct access to the internet, smartphones, or internet-enabled devices which means they are disconnected from social media and other networked communication platforms. Although significant gains have been made in developing and delivering prison-based non-networked digital devices, digital learning platforms and digital education to Australian incarcerated students over the past decade, more work must be done to adequately prepare incarcerated students, with multi-faceted needs, to live and learn as empowered agents within the informational capitalism of the contemporary “network society.” The purpose of this article is to argue for a new form of “network literacy” education over and above “digital literacy” skills for female Australian incarcerated students, through an intersectional theoretical lens which addresses the multidimensional disadvantages experienced by women in custody within Australian prisons.

In her fascinating but frustrating new book, Very Important People: Status and Beauty in the Global Party Circuit, American sociologist, Ashley Mears (2020) offers both academic and mainstream readers a titillating, cross-over tour around the “cool” nightclub and party scene of the “global elite.” It is perhaps not so much global, however, as American, in the sense of the heteropatriarchal, middle-aged, male, working rich of America (or more precisely of its financial capital New York), jetting into their traditional party hotspots of Miami, Saint-Tropez, or the French Riviera, to party with young women who are (indirectly) paid (in-kind) to pose with them. Whether intentional or unintentional, along the way Mears also offers a dark mirror to the fears and fantasies of a rather lost millennial generation, raised in a new media, image age, which has coupled fast and furious performative excess to old fashioned sexual objectification, in the guise of fun and empowerment for the beautiful people.

BackgroundCOVID-19 data have been generated across the United Kingdom as a by-product of clinical care and public health provision, as well as numerous bespoke and repurposed research endeavors. Analysis of these data has underpinned the United Kingdom’s response to the pandemic, and informed public health policies and clinical guidelines. However, these data are held by different organizations, and this fragmented landscape has presented challenges for public health agencies and researchers as they struggle to find relevant data to access and interrogate the data they need to inform the pandemic response at pace. ObjectiveWe aimed to transform UK COVID-19 diagnostic data sets to be findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). MethodsA federated infrastructure model (COVID - Curated and Open Analysis and Research Platform [CO-CONNECT]) was rapidly built to enable the automated and reproducible mapping of health data partners’ pseudonymized data to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model without the need for any data to leave the data controllers’ secure environments, and to support federated cohort discovery queries and meta-analysis. ResultsA total of 56 data sets from 19 organizations are being connected to the federated network. The data include research cohorts and COVID-19 data collected through routine health care provision linked to longitudinal health care records and demographics. The infrastructure is live, supporting aggregate-level querying of data across the United Kingdom. ConclusionsCO-CONNECT was developed by a multidisciplinary team. It enables rapid COVID-19 data discovery and instantaneous meta-analysis across data sources, and it is researching streamlined data extraction for use in a Trusted Research Environment for research and public health analysis. CO-CONNECT has the potential to make UK health data more interconnected and better able to answer national-level research questions while maintaining patient confidentiality and local governance procedures.

Abstract Background The incidence of Gram-negative bloodstream infections (BSIs), predominantly caused by Escherichia coli and Klebsiella species, continues to increase; however, the causes of this are unclear and effective interventions are therefore hard to design. Methods In this study, we sequenced 3468 unselected isolates over a decade in Oxfordshire (UK) and linked this data to routinely collected electronic healthcare records and mandatory surveillance reports. We annotated genomes for clinically relevant genes, contrasting the distribution of these within and between species, and compared incidence trends over time using stacked negative binomial regression. Results We demonstrate that the observed increases in E. coli incidence were not driven by the success of one or more sequence types (STs); instead, four STs continue to dominate a stable population structure, with no evidence of adaptation to hospital/community settings. Conversely in Klebsiella spp., most infections are caused by sporadic STs with the exception of a local drug-resistant outbreak strain (ST490). Virulence elements are highly structured by ST in E. coli but not Klebsiella spp. where they occur in a diverse spectrum of STs and equally across healthcare and community settings. Most clinically hypervirulent (i.e. community-onset) Klebsiella BSIs have no known acquired virulence loci. Finally, we demonstrate a diverse but largely genus-restricted mobilome with close associations between antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes and insertion sequences but not typically specific plasmid replicon types, consistent with the dissemination of AMR genes being highly contingent on smaller mobile genetic elements (MGEs). Conclusions Our large genomic study highlights distinct differences in the molecular epidemiology of E. coli and Klebsiella BSIs and suggests that no single specific pathogen genetic factors (e.g. AMR/virulence genes/sequence type) are likely contributing to the increasing incidence of BSI overall, that association with AMR genes in E. coli is a contributor to the increasing number of E. coli BSIs, and that more attention should be given to AMR gene associations with non-plasmid MGEs to try and understand horizontal gene transfer networks.

Objectives CO-CONNECT is making UK COVID-19 data Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) through a federated platform, which supports secure, anonymised research at scale and pace. This interdisciplinary project, spanning 22 organisations, is connecting data from >50 large research cohorts and data collected through routine healthcare provision across the UK. Approach Across the UK, data has been collected that can help us answer key questions about COVID-19. As the data are in many places with many different processes it is difficult and complex for public health groups, researchers, policymakers, and government to find and access lots of high-quality data quickly and efficiently to make decisions. In collaboration with Health Data Research UK, CO-CONNECT is streamlining processes of accessing data for research. Results 1) Discovering data and meta-analysis: CO-CONNECT enables researchers to determine how many people meet their research criteria within the various datasets across the UK through the Health Data Research Innovation Gateway Cohort Discovery tool e.g. “How many people in each dataset have had a PCR test which was positive and were under the age of 40?” Only summary level, anonymous data are provided so researchers can answer such questions rapidly without requiring multiple data governance permissions and directly contacting each data source. The tool also supports aggregate level meta-analysis of the data. 2) Detailed analysis: With data governance approvals, researchers can analyse detailed level, standardised, linked, pseudonymised data in a Trusted Research Environment. The common format reduces the effort on each research project, supporting rapid research. Conclusion Providing data in this de-identifiable, safe way enables rapid, robust research e.g., COVID-19 results from a test centre can be linked to hospital records along with prescriptions from pharmacies enabling researchers to understand whether people with different existing health conditions are more or less susceptible to COVID-19. If you want to know more visit https://co-connect.ac.uk.

Objectives To assess practice in the care of adults with suspected community-acquired bacterial meningitis in the UK and Ireland.Design Retrospective cohort study.Setting 64 UK and Irish hospitals.Participants 1471 adults with community-acquired meningitis of any aetiology in 2017.Results None of the audit standards, from the 2016 UK Joint Specialists Societies guideline on diagnosis and management of meningitis, were met in all cases. With respect to 20 of 30 assessed standards, clinical management provided for patients was in line with recommendations in less than 50% of cases. 45% of patients had blood cultures taken within an hour of admission, 0.5% had a lumbar puncture within 1 hour, 26% within 8 hours. 28% had bacterial molecular diagnostic tests on cerebrospinal fluid. Median time to first dose of antibiotics was 3.2 hours (IQR 1.3–9.2). 80% received empirical parenteral cephalosporins. 55% ≥60 years and 31% of immunocompromised patients received anti-Listeria antibiotics. 21% received steroids. Of the 1471 patients, 20% had confirmed bacterial meningitis. Among those with bacterial meningitis, pneumococcal aetiology, admission to intensive care and initial Glasgow Coma Scale Score less than 14 were associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR (aOR) 2.08, 95% CI 0.96 to 4.48; aOR 4.28, 95% CI 1.81 to 10.1; aOR 2.90, 95% CI 1.26 to 6.71, respectively). Dexamethasone therapy was weakly associated with a reduction in mortality in both those with proven bacterial meningitis (aOR 0.57, 95% CI 0.28 to 1.17) and with pneumococcal meningitis (aOR 0.47, 95% CI 0.20 to 1.10).Conclusion This study demonstrates that clinical care for patients with meningitis in the UK is not in line with current evidence-based national guidelines. Diagnostics and therapeutics should be targeted for quality improvement strategies. Work should be done to improve the impact of guidelines, understand why they are not followed and, once published, ensure they translate into changed practice.

Prospective serosurveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in 1,069 healthcare workers in London, UK, demonstrated that nucleocapsid antibody titers were stable and sustained for

Summary: Background: Previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 affects the immune response to the first dose of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. We aimed to compare SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell and antibody responses in health-care workers with and without previous SARS-CoV-2 infection following a single dose of the BNT162b2 (tozinameran; Pfizer–BioNTech) mRNA vaccine. Methods: We sampled health-care workers enrolled in the PITCH study across four hospital sites in the UK (Oxford, Liverpool, Newcastle, and Sheffield). All health-care workers aged 18 years or older consenting to participate in this prospective cohort study were included, with no exclusion criteria applied. Blood samples were collected where possible before vaccination and 28 (±7) days following one or two doses (given 3–4 weeks apart) of the BNT162b2 vaccine. Previous infection was determined by a documented SARS-CoV-2-positive RT-PCR result or the presence of positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies. We measured spike-specific IgG antibodies and quantified T-cell responses by interferon-γ enzyme-linked immunospot assay in all participants where samples were available at the time of analysis, comparing SARS-CoV-2-naive individuals to those with previous infection. Findings: Between Dec 9, 2020, and Feb 9, 2021, 119 SARS-CoV-2-naive and 145 previously infected health-care workers received one dose, and 25 SARS-CoV-2-naive health-care workers received two doses, of the BNT162b2 vaccine. In previously infected health-care workers, the median time from previous infection to vaccination was 268 days (IQR 232–285). At 28 days (IQR 27–33) after a single dose, the spike-specific T-cell response measured in fresh peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) was higher in previously infected (n=76) than in infection-naive (n=45) health-care workers (median 284 [IQR 150–461] vs 55 [IQR 24–132] spot-forming units [SFUs] per 106 PBMCs; p

During the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, we saw significant decreases in the incidence of bloodstream infections (BSIs), antibiotic-resistant infections, and the burden of resistant infections. The reasons for this are complex and multifactorial, but likely, at least in part, due to changes in healthcare delivery and healthcare seeking behavior. As healthcare systems return to pre-pandemic ways of working, now is a pivotal moment to ensure focus remains on what is often referred to as the ‘silent pandemic’: antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The ninth English Surveillance Programme for Antimicrobial Utilization and Resistance (ESPAUR) report provides an overview of the national data on antibiotic prescribing and resistance, antimicrobial stewardship implementation, and awareness activities. The active contribution from and collaboration with the ESPAUR oversight group and the engagement of stakeholder organizations, including the devolved administrations, are also reported. Findings from the ESPAUR report were presented at a webinar on 23 November 2022.

Quantum machine learning (QML) has attracted significant research attention over the last decade. Multiple models have been developed to demonstrate the practical applications of the quantum properties. In this study, we first demonstrate that the previously proposed quanvolutional neural network (QuanvNN) using a randomly generated quantum circuit improves the image classification accuracy of a fully connected neural network against the Modified National Institute of Standards and Technology (MNIST) dataset and the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research 10 class (CIFAR-10) dataset from 92.0% to 93.0% and from 30.5% to 34.9%, respectively. We then propose a new model referred to as a Neural Network with Quantum Entanglement (NNQE) using a strongly entangled quantum circuit combined with Hadamard gates. The new model further improves the image classification accuracy of MNIST and CIFAR-10 to 93.8% and 36.0%, respectively. Unlike other QML methods, the proposed method does not require optimization of the parameters inside the quantum circuits; hence, it requires only limited use of the quantum circuit. Given the small number of qubits and relatively shallow depth of the proposed quantum circuit, the proposed method is well suited for implementation in noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers. While promising results were obtained by the proposed method when applied to the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets, a test against a more complicated German Traffic Sign Recognition Benchmark (GTSRB) dataset degraded the image classification accuracy from 82.2% to 73.4%. The exact causes of the performance improvement and degradation are currently an open question, prompting further research on the understanding and design of suitable quantum circuits for image classification neural networks for colored and complex data.

Abstract Background Reducing the need for antibiotics is crucial in addressing the global threat of antimicrobial resistance. Catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) is one of the most frequent device-related infections that may be amenable to prevention. Interventions implemented nationally in England target behaviours related to catheter insertion, maintenance and removal, but the extent to which they target barriers to and facilitators of these behaviours is unclear. This strategic behavioural analysis applied behavioural science frameworks to (i) identify barriers to and facilitators of behaviours that lead to CAUTI (CAUTI-related behaviours) in primary, community and secondary care and nursing homes; (ii) describe the content of nationally adopted interventions; and (iii) assess the extent to which intervention content is theoretically congruent with barriers and facilitators. Methods A mixed-methods, three-phased study: (1) systematic review of 25 studies to identify (i) behaviours relevant to CAUTI and (ii) barriers to and facilitators of CAUTI-related behaviours, classified using the COM-B model and Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF); (2) content analysis of nationally adopted CAUTI interventions in England identified through stakeholder consultation, classified using the Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) and Behaviour Change Techniques Taxonomy (BCTTv1); and (3) findings from 1 and 2 were linked using matrices linking COM-B and TDF to BCW/BCTTv1 in order to signpost to intervention design and refinement. Results The most frequently reported barriers to and facilitators of CAUTI-related behaviours related to ‘environmental context and resources’; ‘knowledge’; ‘beliefs about consequences’; ‘social influences’; ‘memory, attention and decision processes’; and ‘social professional role and identity.’ Eleven interventions aiming to reduce CAUTI were identifed. Interventions were primarily guidelines and included on average 2.3 intervention functions (1–5) and six BCTs (2–11), most frequently ‘education’, ‘training’ and ‘enablement.’ The most frequently used BCT was ‘information about health consequences’ which was used in almost all interventions. Social professional role and identity and environmental context and resources were targeted least frequently with potentially relevant BCTs. Conclusions Interventions incorporated half the potentially relevant content to target identifed barriers to and facilitators of CAUTI-related behaviours. There were missed opportunities for intervention as most focus on shaping knowledge rather than addressing motivational, social and environmental influences. This study suggests that targeting motivational, social and environmental influences may lead to more effective intervention design and refinement.

Abstract Background Infective endocarditis is an uncommon but serious infection, where evidence for giving antibiotic prophylaxis before invasive dental procedures is inconclusive. In England, antibiotic prophylaxis was offered routinely to patients at risk of infective endocarditis until March 2008, when new guidelines aimed at reducing unnecessary antibiotic use were issued. We investigated whether changes in infective endocarditis incidence could be detected using electronic health records, assessing the impact of inclusion criteria/statistical model choice on inferences about the timing/type of any change. Methods Using national data from Hospital Episode Statistics covering 1998–2017, we modelled trends in infective endocarditis incidence using three different sets of inclusion criteria plus a range of regression models, identifying the most likely date for a change in trends if evidence for one existed. We also modelled trends in the proportions of different organism groups identified during infection episodes, using secondary diagnosis codes and data from national laboratory records. Lastly, we applied non-parametric local smoothing to visually inspect any changes in trend around the guideline change date. Results Infective endocarditis incidence increased markedly over the study (22.2–41.3 per million population in 1998 to 42.0–67.7 in 2017 depending on inclusion criteria). The most likely dates for a change in incidence trends ranged from September 2001 (uncertainty interval August 2000–May 2003) to May 2015 (March 1999–January 2016), depending on inclusion criteria and statistical model used. For the proportion of infective endocarditis cases associated with streptococci, the most likely change points ranged from October 2008 (March 2006–April 2010) to August 2015 (September 2013–November 2015), with those associated with oral streptococci decreasing in proportion after the change point. Smoothed trends showed no notable changes in trend around the guideline date. Conclusions Infective endocarditis incidence has increased rapidly in England, though we did not detect any change in trends directly following the updated guidelines for antibiotic prophylaxis, either overall or in cases associated with oral streptococci. Estimates of when changes occurred were sensitive to inclusion criteria and statistical model choice, demonstrating the need for caution in interpreting single models when using large datasets. More research is needed to explore the factors behind this increase.

Abstract Background To reduce inappropriate antibiotic use, public health campaigns often provide fear-based information about antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Meta-analyses have found that fear-based campaigns in other contexts are likely to be ineffective unless respondents feel confident they can carry out the recommended behaviour (‘self-efficacy’). This study aimed to test the likely impact of fear-based messages, with and without empowering self-efficacy elements, on patient consultations/antibiotic requests for influenza-like illnesses, using a randomised design. Methods We hypothesised that fear-based messages containing empowering information about self-management without antibiotics would be more effective than fear alone, particularly in a pre-specified subgroup with low AMR awareness. Four thousand respondents from an online panel, representative of UK adults, were randomised to receive three different messages about antibiotic use and AMR, designed to induce fear about AMR to varying degrees. Two messages (one ‘strong-fear’, one ‘mild-fear’) also contained empowering information regarding influenza-like symptoms being easily self-managed without antibiotics. The main outcome measures were self-reported effect of information on likelihood of visiting a doctor and requesting antibiotics, for influenza-like illness, analysed separately according to whether or not the AMR information was ‘very/somewhat new’ to respondents, pre-specified based on a previous (non-randomised) survey. Results The ‘fear-only’ message was ‘very/somewhat new’ to 285/1000 (28.5%) respondents, ‘mild-fear-plus-empowerment’ to 336/1500 (22.4%), and ‘strong-fear-plus-empowerment’ to 388/1500 (25.9%) (p = 0.002). Of those for whom the respective information was ‘very/somewhat new’, only those given the ‘strong-fear-plus-empowerment’ message said they would be less likely to request antibiotics if they visited a doctor for an influenza-like illness (p

Summary: Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly evolving, with emerging variants and fluctuating control policies. Real-time population screening and identification of groups in whom positivity is highest could help monitor spread and inform public health messaging and strategy. Methods: To develop a real-time screening process, we included results from nose and throat swabs and questionnaires taken 19 July 2020-17 July 2021 in the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey. Fortnightly, associations between SARS-CoV-2 positivity and 60 demographic and behavioural characteristics were estimated using logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders, considering multiple testing, collinearity, and reverse causality. Findings: Of 4,091,537 RT-PCR results from 482,677 individuals, 29,903 (0·73%) were positive. As positivity rose September-November 2020, rates were independently higher in younger ages, and those living in Northern England, major urban conurbations, more deprived areas, and larger households. Rates were also higher in those returning from abroad, and working in healthcare or outside of home. When positivity peaked December 2020-January 2021 (Alpha), high positivity shifted to southern geographical regions. With national vaccine roll-out from December 2020, positivity reduced in vaccinated individuals. Associations attenuated as rates decreased between February-May 2021. Rising positivity rates in June-July 2021 (Delta) were independently higher in younger, male, and unvaccinated groups. Few factors were consistently associated with positivity. 25/45 (56%) confirmed associations would have been detected later using 28-day rather than 14-day periods. Interpretation: Population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance can be a valuable tool in identifying the varying characteristics driving current SARS-CoV-2 positivity, allowing monitoring to inform public health policy. Funding: Department of Health and Social Care (UK), Welsh Government, Department of Health (on behalf of the Northern Ireland Government), Scottish Government, National Institute for Health Research.

The UK’s 5-year National Action Plan for Antimicrobial Resistance has an ambition to reduce total antimicrobial consumption, a key driver of antimicrobial resistance, in humans by 15% by 2024, highlighting the need for active surveillance to inform on progression. The English Surveillance Programme for Antimicrobial Utilisation and Resistance (ESPAUR) report, Chapter 3, commentates on key national antimicrobial consumption trends, across primary and secondary care in England, between 2017 to 2021. These findings were presented at the ESPAUR Report webinar on 23 November 2022.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel virus responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Although COVID-19 is a viral illness, many patients admitted to hospital are prescribed antibiotics, based on concerns that COVID-19 patients may experience secondary bacterial infections, and the assumption that they may respond well to antibiotic therapy. This has led to an increase in antibiotic use for some hospitalised patients at a time when accumulating antibiotic resistance is a major global threat to health. Procalcitonin (PCT) is an inflammatory marker measured in blood samples and widely recommended to help diagnose bacterial infections and guide antibiotic treatment. The PEACH study will compare patient outcomes from English and Welsh hospitals that used PCT testing during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with those from hospitals not using PCT. It will help to determine whether, and how, PCT testing should be used in the NHS in future waves of COVID-19 to protect patients from antibiotic overuse. PEACH is a retrospective observational cohort study using patient-level clinical data from acute hospital Trusts and Health Boards in England and Wales. The primary objective is to measure the difference in antibiotic use between COVID-19 patients who did or did not have PCT testing at the time of diagnosis. Secondary objectives include measuring differences in length of stay, mortality, intensive care unit admission, and resistant bacterial infections between these groups.

Introduction There is an urgent need to idenfy treatments for COVID-19 that reduce illness duration and hospital admission in those at higher risk of a longer illness course and complications.Methods and analysis The Platform Randomised trial of INterventions against COVID-19 In older peoPLE trial is an open-label, multiarm, prospective, adaptive platform, randomised clinical trial to evaluate potential treatments for COVID-19 in the community. A master protocol governs the addition of new interventions as they become available, as well as the inclusion and cessation of existing intervention arms via frequent interim analyses. The first three interventions are hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and doxycycline. Eligible participants must be symptomatic in the community with possible or confirmed COVID-19 that started in the preceding 14 days and either (1) aged 65 years and over or (2) aged 50–64 years with comorbidities. Recruitment is through general practice, health service helplines, COVID-19 ‘hot hubs’ and directly through the trial website. Participants are randomised to receive either usual care or a study drug plus usual care, and outcomes are collected via daily online symptom diary for 28 days from randomisation. The research team contacts participants and/or their study partner following days 7, 14 and 28 if the online diary is not completed. The trial has two coprimary endpoints: time to first self-report of feeling recovered from possible COVID-19 and hospital admission or death from possible COVID-19 infection, both within 28 days from randomisation. Prespecified interim analyses assess efficacy or futility of interventions and to modify randomisation probabilities that allocate more participants to interventions with better outcomes.Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval Ref: 20/SC/0158 South Central - Berkshire Research Ethics Committee; IRAS Project ID: 281958; EudraCT Number: 2020-001209-22. Results will be presented to policymakers and at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals.Trial registration number ISRCTN86534580.

Abstract Background Antimicrobial resistance is an increasing problem in hospitals world-wide. Following other countries, English hospitals experienced outbreaks of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE), a bacterial infection commonly resistant to last resort antibiotics. One way to improve CPE prevention, management and control is the production of guidelines, such as the CPE toolkit published by Public Health England in December 2013. The aim of this research was to investigate the implementation of the CPE toolkit and to identify barriers and facilitators to inform future policies. Methods Acute hospital trusts (N = 12) were purposively sampled based on their self-assessed CPE colonisation rates and time point of introducing local CPE action plans. Following maximum variation sampling, 44 interviews with hospital staff were conducted between April and August 2017 using a semi-structured topic guide based on the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation and Behaviour Model and the Theoretical Domains Framework, covering areas of influences on behaviour. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic analysis. Results The national CPE toolkit was widely disseminated within infection prevention and control teams (IPCT), but awareness was rare among other hospital staff. Local plans, developed by IPCTs referring to the CPE toolkit while considering local circumstances, were in place in all hospitals. Implementation barriers included: shortage of isolation facilities for CPE patients, time pressures, and competing demands. Facilitators were within hospital and across-hospital collaborations and knowledge sharing, availability of dedicated IPCTs, leadership support and prioritisation of CPE as an important concern. Participants using the CPE toolkit had mixed views, appreciating its readability and clarity about patient management, but voicing concerns about the lack of transparency on the level of evidence and the practicality of implementation. They recommended regular updates, additional clarifications, tailored information and implementation guidance. Conclusions There were problems with the awareness and implementation of the CPE toolkit and frontline staff saw room for improvement, identifying implementation barriers and facilitators. An updated CPE toolkit version should provide comprehensive and instructive guidance on evidence-based CPE prevention, management and control procedures and their implementation in a modular format with sections tailored to hospitals’ CPE status and to different staff groups.

Abstract Background To ensure patients continue to get early access to antibiotics at admission, while also safely reducing antibiotic use in hospitals, one needs to target the continued need for antibiotics as more diagnostic information becomes available. UK Department of Health guidance promotes an initiative called ‘Start Smart then Focus’: early effective antibiotics followed by active ‘review and revision’ 24–72 h later. However in 2017,

Background: Using the COM-B model as a framework, an EU-wide survey aimed to ascertain multidisciplinary healthcare workers’ (HCWs’) knowledge, attitudes and behaviours towards antibiotics, antibiotic use and antibiotic resistance. The UK findings are presented here. Methods: A 43-item questionnaire was developed through a two-round modified Delphi consensus process. The UK target quota was 1315 respondents. Results: In total, 2404 participants responded. The highest proportion were nursing and midwifery professionals (42%), pharmacists (23%) and medical doctors (18%). HCWs correctly answered that antibiotics are not effective against viruses (97%), they have associated side effects (97%), unnecessary use makes antibiotics ineffective (97%) and healthy people can carry antibiotic-resistant bacteria (90%). However, fewer than 80% correctly answered that using antibiotics increases a patient’s risk of antimicrobial resistant infection or that resistant bacteria can spread from person to person. Whilst the majority of HCWs (81%) agreed there is a connection between their antibiotic prescribing behaviour and the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, only 64% felt that they have a key role in controlling antibiotic resistance. The top three barriers to providing advice or resources were lack of resources (19%), insufficient time (11%) and the patient being uninterested in the information (7%). Approximately 35% of UK respondents who were prescribers prescribed an antibiotic at least once in the previous week to responding to the survey due to a fear of patient deterioration or complications. Conclusion: These findings highlight that a multifaceted approach to tackling the barriers to prudent antibiotic use in the UK is required and provides evidence for guiding targeted policy, intervention development and future research. Education and training should focus on patient communication, information on spreading resistant bacteria and increased risk for individuals.

Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global health priority. Acne vulgaris is a common skin condition for which antibiotic use ranges from a few months to years of daily exposure. Aim: To systemically search for and synthesise evidence on the risk of treatment-resistant infections, and other evidence of AMR, following long-term oral antibiotic use for acne. Design & setting: In this systematic review, a literature search was carried out using the databases Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane, and Web of Science. They were searched using MeSH, Emtree, or other relevant terms, and followed a pre-registered protocol. Method: Search strategies were developed with a librarian and undertaken in July 2019. All searches date from database inception. The primary outcome was antibiotic treatment failure or infection caused by a resistant organism. Secondary outcomes included detection of resistant organisms without an infection, rate of infection, or changes to flora. Results: A total of 6996 records were identified. Seventy-three full-text articles were shortlisted for full review, of which five were included. Two investigated rates of infection, and three resistance or changes to microbial flora. Three studies had 35 or fewer participants (range 20–118 496). Three studies had a serious or high risk of bias, one moderate, and one a low risk of bias. Weak evidence was found for an association between antibiotic use for acne and subsequent increased rates of upper respiratory tract infections and pharyngitis. Conclusion: There is a lack of high quality evidence on the relationship between oral antibiotics for acne treatment and subsequent AMR sequelae. This needs to be urgently addressed with rigorously conducted studies.

Summary: Background: Outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection have occurred in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) worldwide, but the reasons why some facilities are particularly vulnerable to outbreaks are poorly understood. We aimed to identify factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and outbreaks among staff and residents in LTCFs. Methods: We did a national cross-sectional survey of all LTCFs providing dementia care or care to adults aged 65 years or older in England between May 26 and June 19, 2020. The survey collected data from managers of eligible LTCFs on LTCF characteristics, staffing factors, the use of disease control measures, and the number of confirmed cases of infection among staff and residents in each LTCF. Survey responses were linked to individual-level SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test results obtained through the national testing programme in England between April 30 and June 13, 2020. The primary outcome was the weighted period prevalence of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in residents and staff reported via the survey. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with infection in staff and residents, an outbreak (defined as at least one case of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a resident or staff member), and a large outbreak (defined as LTCFs with more than a third of the total number of residents and staff combined testing positive, or with >20 residents and staff combined testing positive) using data from the survey and from the linked survey–test dataset. Findings: 9081 eligible wLTCFs were identified, of which 5126 (56·4%) participated in the survey, providing data on 160 033 residents and 248 594 staff members. The weighted period prevalence of infection was 10·5% (95% CI 9·9–11·1) in residents and 3·8% (3·4–4·2) in staff members. 2724 (53·1%) LTCFs reported outbreaks, and 469 (9·1%) LTCFs reported large outbreaks. The odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection in residents (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·80 [95% CI 0·75–0·86], p

Global infection and mortality rates from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) are disproportionately high in certain populations, including amongst older people. Care home residents are frequently exposed to infection due to contact with staff and other residents, and are highly susceptible to infection due to their age and co-morbidity. In England, official statistics suggest that at least 25% of all deaths in care home residents since the start of pandemic are linked to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but limited testing for SARS-CoV-2 early in the pandemic means estimates of the true burden of disease are lacking. Additionally, little is known about patterns of transmission between care homes, the community and hospitals, or the relationship between infection and immunity in care home staff and residents. The VIVALDI study plans to address these questions. VIVALDI is a prospective cohort study aiming to recruit 6,500 staff and 5000 residents from 105 care homes across England. Successive rounds of testing for infection will be performed over a period of 12 months. Nasopharyngeal swabs will detect evidence of viral RNA and therefore active infection (accompanied by collection of data on symptoms), whereas blood tests will detect antibodies and evidence of cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Whole genome sequencing of viral isolates to investigate pathways of transmission of infection is planned in collaboration with the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium. Qualitative interviews with care home staff will investigate the impact of the pandemic on ways of working and how test results influence infection control practices and behaviours. Data from residents and staff will be linked to national datasets on hospital admissions, antibody and PCR test results, mortality and care home characteristics. Data generated will support national public health efforts to prevent transmission of COVID-19 and protect care home staff and residents from infection. Protocol registration: ISRCTN14447421 05/06/2020

Background: We investigated six London care homes experiencing a COVID-19 outbreak and found high rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection among residents and staff. Here we report follow-up investigations including antibody testing in the same care homes five weeks later. Methods: Residents and staff in the initial investigation had a repeat nasal swab for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR and a blood test for SARS CoV-2 antibodies using ELISA based on SARS-CoV-2 native viral antigens derived from infected cells and virus neutralisation. Findings: Of the 518 residents and staff in the initial investigation, 186/241 (77.2%) surviving residents and 208/254 (81.9%) staff underwent serological testing. Almost all SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive residents and staff were seropositive five weeks later, whether symptomatic (residents 35/35, 100%; staff, 22/22, 100%) or asymptomatic (residents 32/33, 97.0%; staff 21/22, 95.5%). Symptomatic but SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR negative residents and staff also had high seropositivity rates (residents 23/27, 85.2%; staff 18/21, 85.7%), as did asymptomatic RT-PCR negative individuals (residents 61/91, 67.0%; staff 95/143, 66.4%). Neutralising antibody was detected in 118/132 (89.4%) seropositive individuals and was not associated with age or symptoms. Ten residents (10/79 re-tested, 12.7%) remained RT-PCR positive but with higher RT-PCR cycle threshold values; 7/10 had serological testing and all were seropositive. New infections were detected in three residents and one staff. Interpretation: RT-PCR provides a point prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection but significantly underestimates total exposure in outbreak settings. In care homes experiencing large COVID-19 outbreaks, most residents and staff had neutralising SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, which was not associated with age or symptoms. Funding: PHE

Background: Care homes are experiencing large outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with high case-fatality rates. We conducted detailed investigations in six London care homes reporting suspected COVID-19 outbreaks during April 2020.Methods: Residents and staff had nasal swabs for SARS CoV-2 testing using RT-PCR and were followed-up for 14 days. They were categorized as symptomatic, post-symptomatic or pre-symptomatic if they had symptoms at the time of testing, in the two weeks before or two weeks after testing, respectively, or asymptomatic throughout. Virus isolation and whole genome sequencing (WGS) was also performed.Findings: Across the six care homes, 105/264 (39.8%) residents were SARS CoV-2 positive, including 28 (26.7%) symptomatic, 10 (9.5%) post-symptomatic, 21 (20.0%) pre-symptomatic and 46 (43.8%) who remained asymptomatic. Case-fatality at 14-day follow-up was highest among symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 positive residents (10/28, 35.7%) compared to asymptomatic (2/46, 4.3%), post-symptomatic (2/10, 20.0%) or pre-symptomatic (3/21,14.3%) residents. Among staff, 53/254 (20.9%) were SARS-CoV-2 positive and 26/53 (49.1%) remained asymptomatic. RT-PCR cycle-thresholds and live-virus recovery were similar between symptomatic/asymptomatic residents/staff. Higher RT-PCR cycle threshold values (lower virus load) samples were associated with exponentially decreasing ability to recover infectious virus (P

Background: In 2017, approximately 73% of antibiotics in England were prescribed from primary care practices. It has been estimated that 9%–23% of antibiotic prescriptions between 2013 and 2015 were inappropriate. Reducing antibiotic prescribing in primary care was included as one of the national priorities in a financial incentive scheme in 2015–2016. Aim: To investigate whether the effects of the Quality Premium (QP), which provided performance-related financial incentives to clinical commissioning groups (CCGs), could be explained by practice characteristics that contribute to variations in antibiotic prescribing. Design & setting: Longitudinal monthly prescribing data were analysed for 6251 primary care practices in England from April 2014 to March 2016. Method: Linear generalised estimating equations models were fitted, examining the effect of the 2015–2016 QP on the number of antibiotic items per specific therapeutic group age–sex related prescribing unit (STAR-PU) prescribed, adjusting for seasonality and months since implementation. Consistency of effects after further adjustment for variations in practice characteristics were also examined, including practice workforce, comorbidities prevalence, prescribing rates of non-antibiotic drugs, and deprivation. Results: Antibiotics prescribed in primary care practices in England reduced by -0.172 items per STAR-PU (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.180 to -0.171) after 2015–2016 QP implementation, with slight increases in the months following April 2015 (+0.014 items per STAR-PU; 95% CI = +0.013 to +0.014). Adjusting the model for practice characteristics, the immediate and month-on-month effects following implementation remained consistent, with slight attenuation in immediate reduction from -0.172 to -0.166 items per STAR-PU. In subgroup analysis, the QP effect was significantly greater among the top 20% prescribing practices (interaction p

Abstract Background Antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) are selected by the use of antibiotics. The rational design of interventions to reduce levels of antibiotic resistance requires a greater understanding of how and where ARB are acquired. Our aim was to determine whether acquisition of ARB occurs more often in the community or hospital setting. Methods We used a mathematical model of the natural history of ARB to estimate how many ARB were acquired in each of these two environments, as well as to determine key parameters for further investigation. To do this, we explored a range of realistic parameter combinations and considered a case study of parameters for an important subset of resistant strains in England. Results If we consider all people with ARB in the total population (community and hospital), the majority, under most clinically derived parameter combinations, acquired their resistance in the community, despite higher levels of antibiotic use and transmission of ARB in the hospital. However, if we focus on just the hospital population, under most parameter combinations a greater proportion of this population acquired ARB in the hospital. Conclusions It is likely that the majority of ARB are being acquired in the community, suggesting that efforts to reduce overall ARB carriage should focus on reducing antibiotic usage and transmission in the community setting. However, our framework highlights the need for better pathogen-specific data on antibiotic exposure, ARB clearance and transmission parameters, as well as the link between carriage of ARB and health impact. This is important to determine whether interventions should target total ARB carriage or hospital-acquired ARB carriage, as the latter often dominated in hospital populations.

Changes in antibacterial prescribing during the COVID-19 pandemic were anticipated given that the clinical features of severe respiratory infection syndrome caused by SARS-CoV-2 mirror bacterial respiratory tract infections. Antibacterial consumption was measured in items/1000 population for primary care and in Defined Daily Doses (DDDs)/1000 admissions for secondary care in England from 2015 to October 2020. Interrupted time-series analyses were conducted to evaluate the effects of the pandemic on antibacterial consumption. In the community, the rate of antibacterial items prescribed decreased further in 2020 (by an extra 1.4% per month, 95% CI: −2.3 to −0.5) compared to before COVID-19. In hospitals, the volume of antibacterial use decreased during COVID-19 overall (−12.1% compared to pre-COVID, 95% CI: −19.1 to −4.4), although the rate of usage in hospitals increased steeply in April 2020. Use of antibacterials prescribed for respiratory infections and broad-spectrum antibacterials (predominately ‘Watch’ antibacterials in hospitals) increased in both settings. Overall volumes of antibacterial use at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic decreased in both primary and secondary settings, although there were increases in the rate of usage in hospitals in April 2020 and in specific antibacterials. This highlights the importance of antimicrobial stewardship during pandemics to ensure appropriate prescribing and avoid negative consequences on patient outcomes and antimicrobial resistance.

Abstract Background The rising incidence of pulmonary Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare complex (MAI) infection is unexplained but parallels the growing world-wide epidemic of allergic disease. We hypothesized an association between pulmonary MAI infection and Th2-type immune responses as seen in allergy. Methods Biomarkers of patient Th2-type immune responses (peripheral blood eosinophil counts and serum IgE levels) were compared between patients with positive pulmonary samples for tuberculosis and non-tuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) infection. A further comparison of clinical characteristics, including respiratory co-morbidities, and biomarkers, was conducted between patients culturing MAI NTM and those culturing NTM other than MAI. Results Patients culturing NTM from pulmonary samples had significantly higher peripheral blood eosinophil levels than those culturing Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Furthermore, patients culturing MAI compared to those culturing NTM other than MAI had higher eosinophil counts (mean 0.29x109/L vs 0.15x109/L, p = 0.010) and IgE levels (geometric mean 138kU/L vs 47kU/L, p = 0.021). However there was no significant difference in the frequency of asthma between the two NTM groups. Conclusions There is an association between biomarkers of Th2-type immune responses and pulmonary MAI. Prospective and translational research could identify the direction of causation; and so determine whether our finding may be utilized within future management strategies for MAI.

Background: Management of bone and joint infection commonly includes 4–6 weeks of intravenous (IV) antibiotics, but there is little evidence to suggest that oral (PO) therapy results in worse outcomes. Objective: To determine whether or not PO antibiotics are non-inferior to IV antibiotics in treating bone and joint infection. Design: Parallel-group, randomised (1 : 1), open-label, non-inferiority trial. The non-inferiority margin was 7.5%. Setting: Twenty-six NHS hospitals. Participants: Adults with a clinical diagnosis of bone, joint or orthopaedic metalware-associated infection who would ordinarily receive at least 6 weeks of antibiotics, and who had received ≤ 7 days of IV therapy from definitive surgery (or start of planned curative treatment in patients managed non-operatively). Interventions: Participants were centrally computer-randomised to PO or IV antibiotics to complete the first 6 weeks of therapy. Follow-on PO therapy was permitted in either arm. Main outcome measure: The primary outcome was the proportion of participants experiencing treatment failure within 1 year. An associated cost-effectiveness evaluation assessed health resource use and quality-of-life data. Results: Out of 1054 participants (527 in each arm), end-point data were available for 1015 (96.30%) participants. Treatment failure was identified in 141 out of 1015 (13.89%) participants: 74 out of 506 (14.62%) and 67 out of 509 (13.16%) of those participants randomised to IV and PO therapy, respectively. In the intention-to-treat analysis, using multiple imputation to include all participants, the imputed risk difference between PO and IV therapy for definitive treatment failure was –1.38% (90% confidence interval –4.94% to 2.19%), thus meeting the non-inferiority criterion. A complete-case analysis, a per-protocol analysis and sensitivity analyses for missing data each confirmed this result. With the exception of IV catheter complications [49/523 (9.37%) in the IV arm vs. 5/523 (0.96%) in the PO arm)], there was no significant difference between the two arms in the incidence of serious adverse events. PO therapy was highly cost-effective, yielding a saving of £2740 per patient without any significant difference in quality-adjusted life-years between the two arms of the trial. Limitations: The OVIVA (Oral Versus IntraVenous Antibiotics) trial was an open-label trial, but bias was limited by assessing all potential end points by a blinded adjudication committee. The population was heterogenous, which facilitated generalisability but limited the statistical power of subgroup analyses. Participants were only followed up for 1 year so differences in late recurrence cannot be excluded. Conclusions: PO antibiotic therapy is non-inferior to IV therapy when used during the first 6 weeks in the treatment for bone and joint infection, as assessed by definitive treatment failure within 1 year of randomisation. These findings challenge the current standard of care and provide an opportunity to realise significant benefits for patients, antimicrobial stewardship and the health economy. Future work: Further work is required to define the optimal total duration of therapy for bone and joint infection in the context of specific surgical interventions. Currently, wide variation in clinical practice suggests significant redundancy that likely contributes to the excess and unnecessary use of antibiotics. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN91566927. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 38. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Summary: Background: Despite successful efforts to reduce Meticillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infections (BSI) and Clostridium difficile infection, Gram-negative BSI (GNBSI) have continued to increase in England. Public Health England (PHE) and NHS Improvement (NHSI) were tasked by the Minister for Health to lead the development of tools and resources to support healthcare workers to reduce these infections. Aim: To work with commissioners and providers of healthcare to collaboratively develop resources to support whole health economies to reduce GNBSI using a combination of behavioural insights and quality improvement methods. Methods: We took a unique approach to develop these tools and resources using a combination of behavioural insights, quality improvement and front-line collaboration to ensure the tools and resources were designed around the needs of those who would use them. The approach taken was a stepwise iterative process in two distinct phases: a development phase and a testing phase. Both phases used a combination of behavioural insights, human factors, quality improvement and co-production methods to engage stakeholders in co-designing resources that would support them in their work to reduce GNBSI. Findings: During the development phase, feedback from workshops and stakeholder reviews indicated that tools needed to be reduced, simplified, and communicated clearly. Stakeholders wanted tools that could be used by a cross-system group and indicated that leadership was key to ensuring resources were adopted to drive improvements. The final tools were published on the NHS Improvement GNBSI hub. This electronic platform had 30,000 visits between May 2017 and October 2018. Key words: Gram-negative bloodstream infections, Behavioural insights, Collaboration, Infection prevention and control, Co-design, Co-production

BackgroundThe majority of studies that link antibiotic usage and resistance focus on simple associations between the resistance against a specific antibiotic and the use of that specific antibiotic. However, the relationship between antibiotic use and resistance is more complex. Here we evaluate selection and co-selection by assessing which antibiotics, including those mainly prescribed for respiratory tract infections, are associated with increased resistance to various antibiotics among Escherichia coli isolated from urinary samples.MethodsMonthly primary care prescribing data were obtained from National Health Service (NHS) Digital. Positive E. coli records from urine samples in English primary care (n = 888,207) between April 2014 and January 2016 were obtained from the Second Generation Surveillance System. Elastic net regularization was used to evaluate associations between prescribing of different antibiotic groups and resistance against amoxicillin, cephalexin, ciprofloxacin, co-amoxiclav and nitrofurantoin at the clinical commissioning group (CCG) level. England is divided into 209 CCGs, with each NHS practice prolonging to one CCG.ResultsAmoxicillin prescribing (measured in DDD/ 1000 inhabitants / day) was positively associated with amoxicillin (RR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.04) and ciprofloxacin (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.17) resistance. In contrast, nitrofurantoin prescribing was associated with lower levels of resistance to amoxicillin (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.84-0.97). CCGs with higher levels of trimethoprim prescribing also had higher levels of ciprofloxacin resistance (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10-1.59).ConclusionAmoxicillin, which is mainly (and often unnecessarily) prescribed for respiratory tract infections is associated with increased resistance against various antibiotics among E. coli causing urinary tract infections. Our findings suggest that when predicting the potential impact of interventions on antibiotic resistances it is important to account for use of other antibiotics, including those typically used for other indications.