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Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively.

We observe the evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022, which was in part triggered by warm atmospheric conditions and strong offshore winds. This evacuation of sea ice was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and dynamics of a subset of the ocean-terminating glaciers in the region. We show using satellite measurements that, following a decade of gradual slow-down, Hektoria, Green, and Crane glaciers sped up by approximately 20 %–50 % between February and the end of 2022, each increasing in speed by more than 100 ma-1. Circumstantially, this is attributable to their transition into tidewater glaciers following the loss of their ice shelves after the landfast sea ice evacuation. However, a question remains as to whether the landfast sea ice could have influenced the dynamics of these glaciers, or the stability of their ice shelves, through a buttressing effect akin to that of confined ice shelves on grounded ice streams. We show, with a series of diagnostic modelling experiments, that direct landfast sea ice buttressing had a negligible impact on the dynamics of the grounded ice streams. Furthermore, we suggest that the loss of landfast sea ice buttressing could have impacted the dynamics of the rheologically weak ice shelves, in turn diminishing their stability over time; however, the accompanying shifts in the distributions of resistive stress within the ice shelves would have been minor. This indicates that this loss of buttressing by landfast sea ice is likely to have been a secondary process in the ice shelf disaggregation compared to, for example, increased ocean swell or the drivers of the initial landfast sea ice disintegration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We observe the evacuation of 11-year old landfast sea ice in the Larsen-B Embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022, which was in part triggered by warm atmospheric conditions and strong offshore winds. This evacuation of sea ice was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and dynamics of the ocean-terminating glaciers in the region. Following a decade of gradual slow-down, satellite measurements show that Hektoria, Green and Crane Glaciers have sped up by approximately 20-50% since February 2022, each increasing in speed by more than 100 ma-1. Circumstantially, this is attributable to the loss of floating ice/mélange tongues and their transition into tidewater glaciers. However, a question remains as to whether the landfast sea ice itself could have acted to provide direct buttressing to the glaciers prior to its disintegration. We use diagnostic model simulations to estimate the buttressing effect of the landfast sea ice in the Larsen-B Embayment and its impact on the speed of Hektoria, Green, Evans and Crane Glaciers. The results show that direct sea ice buttressing had a negligible impact on the dynamics of the grounded ice streams. Additionally, our results show that the loss of sea ice buttressing likely produced noticeable changes to the flow speeds of the rheologically weak ice tongues, which could have diminished their stability over time. However, as the accompanying changes in viscous stress were small compared to local spatial variation, this loss of buttressing is likely to have been a secondary process in the disintegration of the ice tongues compared to, for example, increased ocean melting or swell. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]