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A reduction of the thermohaline circulation (THC) might have strong impact on Northeastern Atlantic fisheries. We address this potential challenge by studying the effects of THC changes on larval drift and development of Arcto-Norwegian Cod (ANC, Gadus morhua), as several studies have shown that there is a close link between the abundance and individual size of cod at the 0-group stage and the year class strength of the 3-group fish. The approach taken is that of a modelling study supported by analysis of existing data on fish stocks and climate. A regional model (ROMS) is forced by a global climate model (Bergen Climate Model-BCM) in which the river runoff to the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Oceans is increased by a factor three over the present day value, causing the THC to slow down. Although this increase in river runoff is extreme, the simulated response might be applicable in explaining and interpreting possible processes and feedback mechanisms of relevance for ANC. The impact of the anomalous circulation and ocean temperature on ANC in its habitat as simulated by ROMS is studied by using an individual-based model to simulate growth of the larvae and pelagic juveniles along their simulated drift paths. The present description of a reduction in the THC by 35% results in: (1) a southward and westward shift in the distribution of cod year classes from the Barents Sea onto the narrow shelves of Norway and Spitsbergen, (2) a reduced individual growth of the pelagic juveniles, (3) an increasing number of larvae and pelagic juveniles advected towards the western parts of Spitsbergen, and possibly further into the Arctic Oceans where they are unable to survive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following general life history theory, immediate reproductive investment (egg mass × fecundity/body mass) in oviparous teleosts is a consequence of both present and past environmental influences. This clarification questions the frequent use of season-independent (general) fecundity formulas in marine fish recruitment studies based on body metrics only. Here we test the underlying assumption of no lag effect on gametogenesis in the planktivorous, determinate-fecundity Atlantic herring ( Clupea harengus ) displaying large plasticity in egg mass and fecundity, examining Norwegian summer-autumn spawning herring (NASH), North Sea autumn-spawning herring (NSAH), and Norwegian spring-spawning herring (NSSH). No prior reproductive information existed for NASH. Compared with the 1960s, recent reproductive investment had dropped markedly, especially for NSAH, likely reflecting long-term changes in zooplankton biography and productivity. As egg mass was characteristically small for autumn spawners, although large for spring spawners (cf. different larval feeding conditions), fecundity was the most dynamic factor within reproductive investment. For the data-rich NSSH, we showed evidence that transient, major declines in zooplankton abundance resulted in low fecundity over several subsequent seasons, even if Fulton's condition factor (K) turned high. Temporal trends in K slope ( K on total length) were, however, informative. These results clarify that fecundity is defined by ( i ) dynamics of primary (standing stock) oocytes and ( ii ) down-regulation of secondary oocytes, both processes intimately linked to environmental conditions but operating at different timescales. Thus, general fecundity formulas typically understate interannual variability in actual fecundity. We therefore argue for the use of segmented fecundity formulas linked to dedicated monitoring programs.

Buoyancy acting on plankton, i.e. the difference in specific gravity between plankton and the ambient water, is a function of salinity and temperature. From specific gravity measurements of marine fish eggs salinity appears to be the only determinant of the buoyancy indicating that the thermal expansions of the fish egg and the ambient seawater are equal. We analyze the mechanisms behind thermal expansion in fish eggs in order to determine to what extent it can be justified to neglect the effects of temperature on buoyancy. Our results confirm the earlier assumptions that salinity is the basic determinant on buoyancy in marine fish eggs that, in turn, influence the vertical distributions and, consequently, the dispersal of fish eggs from the spawning areas. Fish populations have adapted accordingly by producing egg specific gravities that tune the egg buoyancy to create specific vertical distributions for each local population. A wide variety of buoyancy adaptations are found among fish populations. The ambient physical conditions at the spawning sites form a basic constraint for adaptation. In coastal regions where salinity increases with depth, and where the major fraction of the fish stocks spawns, pelagic and mesopelagic egg distributions dominate. However, in the larger part of worlds' oceans salinity decreases with depth resulting in different egg distributions. Here, the principles of vertical distributions of fish eggs in the world oceans are presented in an overarching framework presenting the basic differences between regions, mainly coastal, where salinity increases with depth and the major part of the world oceans where salinity decreases with depth. We show that under these latter conditions, steady-state vertical distribution of mesopelagic fish eggs cannot exist as it does in most coastal regions. In fact, a critical spawning depth must exist where spawning below this depth threshold results in eggs sinking out of the water column and become lost for recruitment to the population. An example of adaptation to such conditions is Cape hake spawning above the critical layer in the Northern Benguela upwelling ecosystem. The eggs rise slowly in the onshore subsurface current below the Ekman layer, hence being advected inshore where the hatched larvae concentrate with optimal feeding conditions.

Hypoxia [O 2 < 2.0 mL L -1 (87 μ mol kg -1 )] and severely hypoxic water masses [O 2 < 0.5 mL L -1 (21.8 μ mol kg -1 )] are increasing in coastal marine ecosystems due to eutrophication and warming. Here, we investigate the response of the suboxic-tolerant endemic fish, Sufflogobius bibarbatus , to variations in the thermal and oxygen environment, as well as to predation pressure, using 22 yr worth of satellite and in situ data. We show that environmental variation and predation pressure affect the goby population, which has expanded over the last decade while that of horse mackerel has contracted. These changes co-occurred with a general warming in the north and central shelf areas (north of 24.5°S). Spring warming positively affected both goby and hake abundances, but not the horse mackerel, suggesting different responses to surface temperature. The goby habitat contracted when predators were abundant, particularly in the north, which is the fringe of its distributional area. The implications of the differential tolerance of gobies and their predators for climate variations are discussed.

It is generally accepted that the high buoyancy of pelagic marine eggs is due to substantial influx of water across the cell membrane just before ovulation. Here we further develop the theoretical basis by applying laboratory observations of the various components of the fertilized egg in first-principle equations for egg specific gravity (ρ(egg)) followed by statistical validation. We selected Atlantic cod as a model animal due to the affluent amount of literature on this species, but also undertook additional dedicated experimental works. We found that specific gravity of yolk plus embryo is central in influencing ρ(egg) and thereby the buoyancy. However, our established framework documents the effect on ρ(egg) of the initial deposition of the heavy chorion material in the gonad prior to spawning. Thereafter, we describe the temporal changes in ρ(egg) during incubation: Generally, the eggs showed a slight rise in ρ(egg) from fertilization to mid-gastrulation followed by a gradual decrease until full development of main embryonic organs just before hatching. Ontogenetic changes in ρ(egg) were significantly associated with volume and mass changes of yolk plus embryo. The initial ρ(egg) at fertilization appeared significantly influenced by the chorion volume fraction which is determined by the combination of the final chorion volume of the oocyte and of the degree of swelling (hydrolyzation) prior to spawning. The outlined principles and algorithms are universal in nature and should therefore be applicable to fish eggs in general.

Previous studies have found strong evidences for Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) egg retention in fjords, which are caused by the combination of vertical salinity structure, estuarine circulation, and egg specific gravity, supporting small-scaled geographical differentiations of local populations. Here, we assess the variability in egg specific gravity for selected local populations of this species, that is, two fjord-spawning populations and one coastal-spawning population from Northern Norway (66-71°N/10-25°E). Eggs were naturally spawned by raised broodstocks (March to April 2009), and egg specific gravity was measured by a density-gradient column. The phenotype of egg specific gravity was similar among the three local populations. However, the associated variability was greater at the individual level than at the population level. The noted gradual decrease in specific gravity from gastrulation to hatching with an increase just before hatching could be a generic pattern in pelagic marine fish eggs. This study provides needed input to adequately understand and model fish egg dispersal.

Background: Fisheries exploitation, habitat destruction, and climate are important drivers of variability in recruitment success. Understanding variability in recruitment can reveal mechanisms behind widespread decline in the abundance of key species in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. For fish populations, the match-mismatch theory hypothesizes that successful recruitment is a function of the timing and duration of larval fish abundance and prey availability. However, the underlying mechanisms of match-mismatch dynamics and the factors driving spatial differences between high and low recruitment remain poorly understood., Methodology/principal Findings: We used empirical observations of larval fish abundance, a mechanistic individual-based model, and a reanalysis of ocean temperature data from 1960 to 2002 to estimate the survival of larval cod (Gadus morhua). From the model, we quantified how survival rates changed during the warmest and coldest years at four important cod spawning sites in the North Atlantic. The modeled difference in survival probability was not large for any given month between cold or warm years. However, the cumulative effect of higher growth rates and survival through the entire spawning season in warm years was substantial with 308%, 385%, 154%, and 175% increases in survival for Georges Bank, Iceland, North Sea, and Lofoten cod stocks, respectively. We also found that the importance of match-mismatch dynamics generally increased with latitude., Conclusions/significance: Our analyses indicate that a key factor for enhancing survival is the duration of the overlap between larval and prey abundance and not the actual timing of the peak abundance. During warm years, the duration of the overlap between larval fish and their prey is prolonged due to an early onset of the spring bloom. This prolonged season enhances cumulative growth and survival, leading to a greater number of large individuals with enhanced potential for survival to recruitment.

Background: Individual-based biophysical larval models, initialized and parameterized by observations, enable numerical investigations of various factors regulating survival of young fish until they recruit into the adult population. Exponentially decreasing numbers in Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian Spring Spawning herring early changes emphasizes the importance of early life history, when ichthyoplankton exhibit pelagic free drift. However, while most studies are concerned with past recruitment variability it is also important to establish real-time predictions of ichthyoplankton distributions due to the increasing human activity in fish habitats and the need for distribution predictions that could potentially improve field coverage of ichthyoplankton., Methodology/principal Findings: A system has been developed for operational simulation of ichthyoplankton distributions. We have coupled a two-day ocean forecasts from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute with an individual-based ichthyoplankton model for Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian Spring Spawning herring producing daily updated maps of ichthyoplankton distributions. Recent years observed spawning distribution and intensity have been used as input to the model system. The system has been running in an operational mode since 2008. Surveys are expensive and distributions of early stages are therefore only covered once or twice a year. Comparison between model and observations are therefore limited in time. However, the observed and simulated distributions of juvenile fish tend to agree well during early fall. Area-overlap between modeled and observed juveniles September 1(st) range from 61 to 73%, and 61 to 71% when weighted by concentrations., Conclusions/significance: The model system may be used to evaluate the design of ongoing surveys, to quantify the overlap with harmful substances in the ocean after accidental spills, as well as management planning of particular risky operations at sea. The modeled distributions are already utilized during research surveys to estimate coverage success of sampled biota and immediately after spills from ships at sea.