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Introduction: Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of government policies that support primary care physicians to provide comprehensive chronic disease management (CDM). This paper aimed to estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of CDM policies over a lifetime for long-time survivors of stroke. Methods: A Markov model, using three health states (stable, hospitalised, dead), was developed to simulate the costs and benefits of CDM policies over 30 years (with 1-year cycles). Transition probabilities and costs from a health system perspective were obtained from the linkage of data between the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (cohort n = 12,368, 42% female, median age 70 years, 45% had CDM claims) and government-held hospital, Medicare, and pharmaceutical claims datasets. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were obtained from a comparable cohort (n = 512, 34% female, median age 69.6 years, 52% had CDM claims) linked with Medicare claims and death data. A 3% discount rate was applied to costs in Australian dollars (AUD, 2016) and QALYs beyond 12 months. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to understand uncertainty. Results: Per-person average total lifetime costs were AUD 142,939 and 8.97 QALYs for those with a claim, and AUD 103,889 and 8.98 QALYs for those without a claim. This indicates that these CDM policies were costlier without improving QALYs. The probability of cost-effectiveness of CDM policies was 26.1%, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD 50,000/QALY. Conclusion: CDM policies, designed to encourage comprehensive care, are unlikely to be cost-effective for stroke compared to care without CDM. Further research to understand how to deliver such care cost-effectively is needed.

PURPOSE: Health service use is most intensive in the final year of a person's life, with 80% of this expenditure occurring in hospital. Close involvement of primary care services has been promoted to enhance quality end-of-life care that is appropriate to the needs of patients. However, the relationship between primary care involvement and patients' use of hospital care is not well described. This study aims to examine primary care use in the last year of life for cancer patients and its relationship to hospital usage. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study in Victoria, Australia, using linked routine care data from primary care, hospital and death certificates. Patients were included who died related to cancer between 2008 and 2017. RESULTS: A total of 758 patients were included, of whom 88% (n = 667) visited primary care during the last 6 months (median 9.1 consultations). In the last month of life, 45% of patients were prescribed opioids, and 3% had imaging requested. Patients who received home visits (13%) or anticipatory medications (15%) had less than half the median bed days in the last 3 months (4 vs 9 days, p < 0.001, 5 vs 10 days, p = 0.001) and 1 month of life (0 vs 2 days, p = 0.002, 0 vs 3 days, p < 0.001), and reduced emergency department presentations (32% vs 46%, p = 0.006, 31% vs 47% p < 0.001) in the final month. CONCLUSION: This study identifies two important primary care processes-home visits and anticipatory medication-associated with reduced hospital usage and intervention at the end of life.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Accurate biomarkers to predict outcomes following discontinuation of nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy are needed. We evaluated serum hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) level as a biomarker for predicting outcomes after NA discontinuation. METHODS: Patients with HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) without cirrhosis were enrolled in a prospective trial evaluating clinical outcomes until 96 weeks after NA discontinuation. End of treatment (EOT) and off-treatment levels of serum HBcrAg, HBsAg, HBV RNA and HBV DNA were used to predict key clinical outcomes including hepatitis flare (ALT ≥5 × ULN and HBV DNA > 2000 IU/mL). The SCALE-B score was calculated for the purposes of model validation. RESULTS: HBcrAg was tested amongst 65 participants. The median age was 54 years, 54% were male and 83% were Asian. HBcrAg was detectable in 86% patients. HBcrAg level ≥4 log U/mL at EOT was predictive of hepatitis flare [8/10 (80%) vs. 17/55 (31%), p = .001]. The presence of either HBcrAg ≥4 log U/mL or detectable HBV RNA at EOT predicted for both biochemical relapse and hepatitis flare. The SCALE-B model at EOT predicted for virological relapse, biochemical relapse, hepatitis flare and HBsAg loss in this cohort. An increase in the serum HBcrAg level off-treatment was also associated with hepatitis flare. No participant with EOT HBcrAg level ≥4 log U/mL achieved HBsAg loss. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of serum HBcrAg predict for hepatitis flare after stopping NA therapy and low likelihood of HBsAg loss at week 96. People with high levels of serum HBcrAg are not suitable candidates for NA discontinuation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: HBV RNA in peripheral blood reflects HBV cccDNA transcriptional activity and may predict clinical outcomes. The prospective Melbourne HBV-STOP trial studied nucleot(s)ide analog discontinuation in HBeAg-negative non-cirrhotic participants with long-term virological suppression. Ninety-six weeks after stopping treatment, the proportion of participants with virological relapse (HBV DNA > 2000 IU/mL), biochemical relapse (ALT > 2 × ULN and HBV DNA > 2000 IU/mL), or hepatitis flare (ALT > 5 × ULN and HBV DNA > 2000 IU/mL) was 89%, 58%, and 38%, respectively. We evaluated the ability of serum HBV RNA levels to predict these outcomes. APPROACH RESULTS: HBV RNA levels were measured using the Roche cobas 6800/8800 HBV RNA Investigational Assay. Sixty-five participants had baseline and longitudinal off-treatment specimens available for RNA testing. HBV RNA was detectable at baseline in 25% of participants and was associated with a higher risk of biochemical relapse (81% vs. 51%, p value 0.04) and hepatitis flare (63% vs. 31%, p value 0.04). Participants who had undetectable serum HBV RNA as well as HBsAg ≤ 100 IU/mL at baseline were less likely to experience virological relapse (4 of 9, 44%) than participants with detectable HBV RNA and HBsAg level > 100 IU/mL (15/15, 100%; p value 0.0009). Off-treatment levels of HBV RNA were correlated with HBV DNA and were associated with the risk of hepatitis flare. CONCLUSIONS: Serum HBV RNA may be a useful biomarker for guiding clinical decision-making before stopping nucleot(s)ide analog therapy. Baseline HBV RNA and HBsAg levels are associated with the risk of clinical relapse, hepatitis flare, and disease remission off-treatment.

BACKGROUND: People experiencing homelessness have an increased risk of mortality. The association between being at risk of homelessness and premature mortality is unclear. We aimed to determine all-cause and cause-specific mortality in patients who were homeless, at risk of homelessness (marginally housed), or housed. METHODS: This retrospective longitudinal cohort study compared mortality patterns in adult patients identified in 2003/04 by linking data from an Australian metropolitan emergency department to national mortality data. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations between housing status and mortality. To address competing risks, cause-specific hazards were modelled and transformed into stacked cumulative incidence functions. FINDINGS: Data from 6290 patients (homeless deceased = 382/1050, marginally housed deceased = 259/518, housed deceased = 1204/4722) found increased risk of mortality in homeless [hazard ratio (HR) = 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.0-3.3) and marginally housed (HR = 2.6, 95% CI = 3.4-4.8) patients. Homeless patients had an excess risk from external causes (HR = 6.1, 95% CI = 4.47-8.35), cardiovascular disease (HR = 4.9, 95% CI = 2.78-8.70) and cancer (HR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.15-2.09). Marginally housed patients had increased risk from external causes (HR = 3.6, 95% CI = 2.36-5.40) and respiratory diseases (HR = 4.7, 95% CI = 1.82-12.05). Taking account of competing risk, marked inequality was observed, with homeless, marginally housed and housed patients having probabilities of death by 55 years of 0.2, 0.1 and 0.02, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates were elevated in patients who were homeless or at risk of homelessness. Increasing numbers of people are at risk of homelessness, and the effect of this on mortality is relatively unrecognized. Marginal housing may assuage some risk of premature mortality associated with homelessness; however, it is not equivalent to stable housing.

OBJECTIVE: Using a strength-based framework, we aimed to describe and compare First Nations patients who completed care in an ED to those who took their own leave. METHODS: Routinely collected adult patient data from a metropolitan ED collected over a 5-year period were analysed. RESULTS: A total of 6446 presentations of First Nations patients occurred from 2016 to 2020, constituting 3% of ED presentations. Of these, 5589 (87%) patients waited to be seen and 857 (13%) took their own leave. Among patients who took their own leave, 624 (73%) left not seen and 233 (27%) left at own risk after starting treatment. Patients who were assigned a triage category of 4-5 were significantly more likely to take their own leave (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.67-3.77, P < 0.001). Patients were significantly less likely to take their own leave if they were >60 years (adjusted OR 0.69, 95% CI 1.01-1.36, P = 0.014) and had private health insurance (adjusted OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.45-0.84, P < 0.001). Patients were more likely to leave if they were women (adjusted OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.01-1.36, P = 0.04), had an unknown housing status (adjusted OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.44-2.15, P < 0.001), were homeless (adjusted OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.22-1.93, P < 0.001) or had a safety alert (adjusted OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.35-1.90, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: A lower triage category is a strong predictor of First Nations patients taking their own leave. It has been documented that First Nations patients are under-triaged. One proposed intervention in the metropolitan setting is to introduce practices which expediate the care of First Nations patients. Further qualitative studies with First Nations patients should be undertaken to determine successful approaches to create equitable access to emergency healthcare for this population.

Objectives: To determine the factors associated with survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the effect of HCC surveillance on survival. Design, setting and participants: Prospective population-based cohort study of patients newly diagnosed with HCC in seven tertiary hospitals in Melbourne, 1 July 2012 - 30 June 2013. Main Outcome Measure(s): Overall survival (maximum follow-up, 24 months); factors associated with HCC surveillance participation and survival. Result(s): 272 people were diagnosed with incident HCC during the study period; the most common risk factors were hepatitis C virus infection (41%), alcohol-related liver disease (39%), and hepatitis B virus infection (22%). Only 40% of patients participated in HCC surveillance at the time of diagnosis; participation was significantly higher among patients with smaller median tumour size (participants, 2.8 cm; non-participants, 6.0 cm; P < 0.001) and earlier Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage disease (A/B, 59%; C/D, 25%; P < 0.001). Participation was higher among patients with compensated cirrhosis or hepatitis C infections; it was lower among those with alcohol-related liver disease or decompensated liver disease. Median overall survival time was 20.8 months; mean survival time was 18.1 months (95% CI, 16.6-19.6 months). Participation in HCC surveillance was associated with significantly lower mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.60; 95% CI, 0.38-0.93; P = 0.021), as were curative therapies (aHR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.19-0.58). Conversely, higher Child-Pugh class, alpha-fetoprotein levels over 400 kU/L, and later BCLC disease stages were each associated with higher mortality. Conclusion(s): Survival for patients with HCC is poor, but may be improved by surveillance, associated with the identification of earlier stage tumours, enabling curative therapies to be initiated.Copyright © 2018 AMPCo Pty Ltd. Produced with Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

BACKGROUND: There has been a decline in the stroke incidence across high income countries but such knowledge exists at Country or State rather than areal unit level such local government area (LGA). In this disease mapping study, we evaluate if there are local hot spots or temporal trends in TIA rate. Such knowledge will be of help in planning healthcare service delivery across regions. METHODS: Linked hospital discharge data (Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset or VAED) was used to collect TIA (defined by ICD-10-AM codes G450-G459) cases from 2001 to 2011. The State of Victoria is the second most populous state in Australia, with a population of 6.7 million and can be divided into 79 administrative units or LGA. The data is anonymized and contains residence of the patient in terms of LGA but not exact location. The date of the TIA event when the patient is admitted to hospital is provided in the dataset. The number of TIAs per year was aggregated for each LGA. Standardized TIA ratios were calculated by dividing actual over expected cases for each LGA per year. We used Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to perform spatial and spatiotemporal regression, adjusting for hypertension, sex and population, age (≥60), and socio-economic status (SES) decile within the LGA. The final model was chosen based on the lowest the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria (WAIC). RESULTS: Choropleth maps showed a higher standardized TIA ratios in North-West rural region. Compared to the baseline model (DIC 13,159, WAIC 13,261), adding in a spatial random effect significantly improved the model (DIC 6,463, WAIC 6,667). However, adding a temporal component did not lead to a significant improvement (DIC 6,483, WAIC 6,707). CONCLUSION: Our finding suggests a statically significant spatial component to TIA rate over regional areas but no temporal changes or yearly trends. We propose that such exploratory method should be followed by evaluat

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the combined disciplines of public health, infectious disease and policy modelling squarely into the spotlight. Never before have decisions regarding public health measures and their impacts been such a topic of international deliberation, from the level of individuals and communities through to global leaders. Nor have models-developed at rapid pace and often in the absence of complete information-ever been so central to the decision-making process. However, after nearly 3 years of experience with modelling, policy-makers need to be more confident about which models will be most helpful to support them when taking public health decisions, and modellers need to better understand the factors that will lead to successful model adoption and utilization. We present a three-stage framework for achieving these ends.

BACKGROUND: While multiple clinical trials have demonstrated benefits of early palliative care for people with cancer, access to these services is frequently very late if at all. Establishing evidence-based, disease-specific 'triggers' or times for the routine integration of early palliative care may address this evidence-practice gap. AIM: To test the feasibility of using defined triggers for the integration of standardised, early palliative (STEP) care across three advanced cancers. METHOD: Phase II, multi-site, open-label, parallel-arm, randomised trial of usual best practice cancer care +/- STEP Care conducted in four metropolitan tertiary cancer services in Melbourne, Australia in patients with advanced breast, prostate and brain cancer. The primary outcome was the feasibility of using triggers for times of integration of STEP Care, defined as enrolment of at least 30 patients per cancer in 24 months. Triggers were based on hospital admission with metastatic disease (for breast and prostate cancer), or development of disease recurrence (for brain tumour cohort). A mixed method study design was employed to understand issues of feasibility and acceptability underpinning trigger points. RESULTS: The triggers underpinning times for the integration of STEP care were shown to be feasible for brain but not breast or prostate cancers, with enrolment of 49, 6 and 10 patients across the three disease groups respectively. The varied feasibility across these cancer groups suggested some important characteristics of triggers which may aid their utility in future work. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving the implementation of early palliative care as a standardized component of quality care for all oncology patients will require further attention to defining triggers. Triggers which are 1) linked to objective points within the illness course (not dependent on recognition by individual clinicians), 2) Identifiable and visible (heralded through established service-level activities) and 3)

BACKGROUND: Diagnoses that arise after admission are of interest because they can represent complications of health care, acute conditions arising de novo, or acute decompensation of a chronic comorbidity occurring during the hospital stay. Three countries in the world have adopted diagnosis timing codes for a number of years. Their experience demonstrates the feasibility and utility of associating an International Classification of Diseases, Version 9 or International Classification of Diseases, Version 10 diagnostic code with information on diagnosis timing, either as part of a diagnostic field or as a separate field. However, diagnosis timing is not an integrated feature of these two classifications as it will be for International Classification of Diseases, Version 11. METHODS: We examine the different types of diagnosis timing that can be used to describe complex patients and present examples of how the new International Classification of Diseases, Version 11 codes may be used. RESULTS: Extension codes are one of the important new features of International Classification of Diseases, Version 11 and allow more specificity in diagnosis timing. CONCLUSION: Imbedded and standardized diagnosis timing information is possible within the International Classification of Diseases, Version 11 classification system.

BACKGROUND: Discharge planning is recommended to optimise the transition from acute care to home for patients admitted with stroke. Despite this guideline recommendation, many patients do not receive a discharge care plan. Also, there is limited evidence on factors influencing the provision of discharge care plan post-stroke. We evaluated patient, clinical and system factors associated with receiving a care plan on discharge from hospital back to the community after stroke. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study of patients with acute stroke who were discharged to the community between 2009-2013, using data from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry linked to hospital administrative data. For this analysis, we used merged dataset containing information on patient demographics, clinical characteristics, and receipt of acute care processes. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine factors associated with receiving a discharge care plan. RESULTS: Among 7812 eligible patients (39 hospitals, median age 73 years, 44.7% female, 56.9% ischaemic stroke), 47% received a care plan at discharge. The odds of receiving a discharge care plan increased over time (odds ratio [OR] 1.39 per year, 95% CI 1.37-1.48), and varied between hospitals. Factors associated with receiving a discharge care plan included greater socioeconomic position (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02-1.38), diagnosis of ischaemic stroke (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.05-1.33), greater stroke severity (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.31), or being discharged on antihypertensive medication (OR 3.07, 95% CI 2.69-3.50). In contrast, factors associated with a reduced odds of receiving a discharge care plan included being aged 85+ years (vs < 85 years; OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.64-0.96), discharged on a weekend (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.46-0.67), discharged to residential aged care (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.39-0.60), or being treated in a large hospital ( > 300 beds; OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.10-0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing practices to target

BACKGROUND: Australian Primary Care Practitioners are incentivised through Medicare funded policies to provide chronic disease management and facilitate multidisciplinary care. Little is known about how these policies are claimed in the long-term management of stroke. The objective of this study was to describe the use of funded primary care policies for people with stroke by impairment status. METHODS: Linked Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (2010-2014) and Medicare data from adults with 90-180 days post-stroke EQ-5D health status survey data and admitted to one of 26 participating Australian hospitals were analysed. Medicare item claims for Primary Care Practitioner led chronic disease management and multidisciplinary care coordination policies, during the 18 months following stroke are described. Registrants were classified into impairment groups using their EQ-5D dimension responses through Latent Class Analysis. Associations between impairment and use of relevant primary care policies were explored using multivariable regression. RESULTS: 5432 registrants were included (median age 74 years, 44% female, 86% ischaemic), 39% had a chronic disease management claim and 39% a multidisciplinary care coordination claim. Three latent classes emerged representing minimal, moderate and severe impairment. Compared to minimal, those with severe impairment were least likely to receive chronic disease management (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 0.61, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.49, 0.75) but were most likely to receive multidisciplinary care coordination. Podiatry was the commonest allied health service prescribed, regardless of impairment. CONCLUSIONS: Less than half of people living with stroke had a claim for primary care initiated chronic disease management, with mixed access for those with severe impairments.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the patterns of peripheral Toll-like receptor (TLR) signaling activity and the expression of TLRs and natural killer (NK) cell activation in a cohort of patients experiencing severe hepatitis flares after stopping nucleot(s)ide analogues (NAs) therapy. METHODS: Samples were collected longitudinally from patients with chronic hepatitis B who were enrolled in a prospective study of NA discontinuation. Patients experiencing hepatitis flares were compared with patients with normal alanine aminotransferase. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were stimulated with TLR ligands and cytokine secretion in the cell culture supernatant measured. Expression of TLR2/4, NKG2D, NKp46, and triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 1 (TREM-1) on monocytes, NK, and NK-T cells was measured. RESULTS: Seventeen patients with severe reactivation hepatitis flares were compared to 12 nonflare patients. Hepatitis flares were associated with increased activity of TLR2-8 and TLR9 signaling in PBMCs at the time of peak flare compared to baseline. Hepatitis flares were also associated with (1) upregulation of TLR2 and (2) TREM-1 receptor expression on NK. There were no differences at baseline between flare patients and nonflare patients. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis flares off NA therapy have a significant innate inflammatory response with upregulation of TLR signaling on peripheral monocytes and TLR2 and TREM-1 expression on NK cells. This implicates the innate immune system in the immunopathogenesis of hepatitis B flares.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Sustained virological suppression and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss have been described after nucleot(s)ide analogue (NA) discontinuation for patients with hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We performed a meta-analysis of the clinical outcomes after NA discontinuation for HBeAg-negative CHB. METHODS: Studies involving NA cessation in HBeAg-negative CHB individuals with a median follow-up of ≥12 months were included. Participants were HBeAg-negative at the time of NA initiation. Random effects meta-analyses were performed for the following clinical outcomes: (1) virological relapse (VR) at 6 and 12 months; (2) clinical relapse (CR) at 6 and 12 months and (3) HBsAg loss. Effect of other variables was estimated using subgroup analysis and meta-regression. Studies including patients stopping entecavir (ETV) and/or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were considered separately to studies including patients stopping older generation NA. RESULTS: N=37 studies met inclusion criteria. Cumulative incidence of VR and CR after stopping ETV/TDF was 44% and 17% at 6 months and 63% and 35% at 12 months. Similar relapse rates were observed after stopping older NAs. Among patients stopping ETV/TDF, TDF cessation was associated with increased CR rates at 6 months versus ETV. There was an association between follow-up ≥4 years and HBsAg loss rates when stopping older NAs. Hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma were rare but occurred more frequently in studies including cirrhotic individuals. CONCLUSION: VR is common after NA discontinuation, however, CR was only seen in one-third of patients at 12 months. Stopping NA therapy can be followed by HBsAg clearance, and rates are higher with longer follow-up.