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In response to increasingly severe weather conditions, optimization of building performance and investment provides an opportunity to consider co-benefits of thermal resilience during energy efficiency retrofits. This work aims to assess thermal resilience of buildings using building performance simulation to evaluate the indoor overheating risk under nine weather scenarios, considering historical (2010s), mid-term future (2050s), and long-term future (2090s) typical meteorological years, and heat wave years. Such an analysis is based on resilience profiles that combine six integrated indicators. A case study with a district of 92 buildings in Brazil was conducted, and a combination of strategies to improve thermal resilience was identified. Results reflect the necessity of planning for resilience in the context of climate change. This is because strategies recommended under current conditions might not be ideal in the future. Therefore, an adaptable design should be prioritized. Cooling energy consumption could increase by 48 % by the 2050s, while excessive overheating issues could reach 37 % of the buildings. Simple passive strategies can significantly reduce the heat stress. A comprehensive thermal resilience analysis should ultimately be accompanied by a thorough reflection on the stakeholders’ objectives, available resources, and planning horizon, as well as the risks assumed for not being resilient.

The small commercial office market experiences a number of unique barriers to achieving substantial energy reductions. Those barriers include: 1) a lack of awareness of and access to centralized, comprehensive, cost-evaluative information about how to achieve energy targets, and 2) affordable access to energy reduction services such as engineering and auditingservices. Energy efficiency tools and services currently involve higher costs on a per-square-foot or kilowatt-hour (kWh)-saved basis. Small commercial buildings are consequently underserved by the energy services market and disadvantaged in accessing the same detailed retrofit information that larger buildings realize. Meeting national and state energy goals requireswhole-building integrated solutions that enable this sector to realize deep energy savings successfully and affordably.This project developed cost-effective retrofit packages of commercial, whole-building integrated systems to achieve zero net energy (ZNE) performance for California multi-story small commercial offices. The energy efficiency measure (EEM) packages target 50% energy savings over existing energy use, with costs within 10% of conventional-performance construction costs, and internal rates of return (IRR) of 5% or more. The developed packages of EEMs are validated for energy performance, as well as visual and thermal comfort, under both controlled laboratory test conditions for emerging technologies and demonstrated in an occupied small commercial building. Validated EEMs were built into an online public software platform that enables small commercial facilities to conduct whole-building retrofit assessments, relevant to their building, providing cost-evaluative feedback on EEMs and packages of measures.

With climate change leading to more frequent, more intense, and longer durations of extreme weather events such as heat waves and cold snaps, it is essential to maintain safe indoor environmental conditions for occupants during such events, which may coincide with, or even cause, power outages that expose residents to health risks. Analyzing the impacts of extreme weather events on the thermal resilience of buildings can help stakeholders (including occupants) understand the risk and inform them about mitigation and adaptation actions. Moreover, analyzing the technological, social and policy dimensions of thermal resilience is critical for climate-proofing buildings. This paper presents 10 questions that highlight the most important issues regarding the thermal resilience of buildings for occupants in the face of climate change. The proposed questions and answers aim to provide insights into current and future building thermal resilience research and applications, and more importantly to inspire new significant questions in the field.

Rapid electrification of buildings at the district scale is needed for cities to achieve climate change mitigation goals. However, most electrification studies focus on either the single building level or the city/region building stock level, and depend on the slow and uncertain process of requesting personally identifiable customer energy usage data from utilities. To answer a key question facing local policymakers: “Where can electrification proceed at scale without first upgrading the grid?” this study aims to quantify and inform building electrification impacts at the district scale using detailed building energy modeling and based on public records datasets. We explore how energy efficiency retrofits can help mitigate increased peak electric demand, and quantify impacts to energy use and carbon emissions. Building energy models of a baseline, and scenarios of simple electrification, energy retrofits, and electrification in combination with retrofits were created and simulated for 54 commercial buildings in two contiguous districts of San Francisco. A simple electrification scenario increased annual electricity consumption but reduced annual site energy usage by 15% to 17%, mainly due to replacing inefficient gas furnaces and boilers with more efficient heat pumps. Peak demand increased 7.4% for Fisherman's Wharf (e.g. within the capacity of the existing power grid), while the Design District showed a marginal decrease. Annual carbon emissions were reduced by 46% and 37%. Combining electrification with efficiency upgrades reduced peak demand by 26% and 40%, and annual carbon emissions by 63% and 64% for the two districts. These results indicate that impacts of electrification depend on the mix of building uses within a district, and coupling electrification with energy efficiency upgrades is an effective strategy to decarbonize buildings while maintaining or reducing the peak electric demand.

Occupant behavior (OB) is one of the significant sources of uncertainty in building performance simulation. While OB modeling has received increased attention in the past decade, research on the degree of granularity or level of detail (LoD) required for representing occupants is still in the nascent stages. This paper analyzes the modeling and applicability of three LoDs to represent occupants in building performance assessment. A medium-sized prototype office building located in Chicago, Illinois is used as the simulation case study. Ten occupant-centric attributes are adopted to develop the LoDs for OB representation. We first demonstrate the different modeling approaches required for simulating the three fidelity levels. Later, we illustrate the suitability of the developed LoDs in supporting six building performance use cases across different lifecycle stages. This study intends to provide guidance for the building simulation community on appropriate OB representation to support various use cases.

Extreme hot and cold weather events are becoming more frequent, intense, and longer due to climate change. When these events occur coincidentally with power outages, the resulting extreme indoor temperatures pose a severe health hazard for occupants. This study conducted a holistic modeling and analysis of an assisted living facility, where senior residents live, to assess its thermal resilience performance under a six-day heat wave in 2015 and a three-day cold snap in 2021 with power outages. Impacts of 13 energy efficiency measures on thermal resilience and backup power capacity of the facility were evaluated. Three thermal resilience metrics: the SET (standard effective temperature) degree-hours, the Heat Index, and the Hours of Safety, were used and calculated from the EnergyPlus simulation models. Major findings are: (1) the facility would suffer from extreme temperatures during the cold and hot events without a power supply, not meeting the passive survivability requirements; (2) most passive envelope measures improve thermal resilience for both hot and cold events, but making the building envelope airtight results in conflicting performance between the hot and cold events; (3) natural ventilation is an effective measure to mitigate summer indoor overheating; and (4) the energy efficiency package can reduce backup power capacity by 19% for the three-day cold snap. It is recommended that building technologies and design strategies be evaluated to consider co-benefits of energy use, thermal resilience, and backup power needs through building energy codes or policies for existing and new buildings, which are transitioning for decarbonization and climate resilience.

California has a state-wide goal of carbon neutrality by 2045. Decarbonization for disadvantaged communities (DACs) poses extra challenges due to financial, informational, language, and other barriers. This paper presents the methodology, results, and analysis of energy efficiency measures (EEMs) to save energy, reduce CO2 emission, and promote clean energy access at the district scale for two DACs in Fresno, California. The methods are broadly applicable to other neighborhoods across the U.S. 22 EEMs were identified and modelled for all residential buildings in the two DACs both individually and as packages. Results show that for energy and CO2 reduction purposes, the top performing EEM package can decrease energy use and CO2 emissions by an average of 60%. For electrification, heat pump water heaters are a viable solution, coupled with air source or mini-split heat pumps. Replacing gasoline vehicles with electric vehicles is another important measure in electrification and reducing GHG emissions.

Social houses built after the Second World War to accommodate workers and low-income families represent one of the major energy consumers and greenhouse gas emitters in the residential sector. Plans for their renovation are underway in all European countries, and the process is more complicated for Italian cities due to the lack of space and the large number of historical buildings. This study addresses this challenge by proposing a methodology to renovate a low-income district in the city of Venice using CityBES to model and evaluate energy conservation measures. CityBES is a web-based tool that allows users to employ urban building energy modeling for large-scale energy and retrofit analyses of building stocks. In the case study conducted for Venice's Santa Marta district, due to the particular context, four common energy conservation measures covering both the building envelope and heat generation boilers have been applied. The evaluation of energy-saving performances at the district level showed that the four measures together achieved 67% energy savings, an abatement in energy cost equal to 67%, and annual carbon dioxide emissions reduction of 1.1 MtCO2. The case study demonstrates a method and workflow replicable for energy retrofit analysis of building stocks in other historical districts.

Building performance simulation has been adopted to support decision making in the building life cycle. An essential issue is to ensure a building energy simulation model can capture the reality and complexity of buildings and their systems in both the static characteristics and dynamic operations. Building energy model calibration is a technique that takes various types of measured performance data (e.g., energy use) and tunes key model parameters to match the simulated results with the actual measurements. This study performed an application and evaluation of an automated pattern-based calibration method on commercial building models that were generated based on characteristics of real buildings. A public building dataset that includes high-level building attributes (e.g., building type, vintage, total floor area, number of stories, zip code) of 111 buildings in San Francisco, California, USA, was used to generate building models in EnergyPlus. Monthly level energy use calibrations were then conducted by comparing building model results against the actual buildings’ monthly electricity and natural gas consumption. The results showed 57 out of 111 buildings were successfully calibrated against actual buildings, while the remaining buildings showed opportunities for future calibration improvements. Enhancements to the pattern-based model calibration method are identified to expand its use for: (1) central heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems with chillers, (2) space heating and hot water heating with electricity sources, (3) mixed-use building types, and (4) partially occupied buildings.

More intense heat waves are expected to occur more frequently in the twenty-first century. During severe heat waves, cooling capacity shortfall and overheating are likely to occur in residential buildings, and this will adversely affect occupant's thermal comfort and productivity. We propose a strategy of pre-cooling the house during off-peak hours to mitigate overheating during heat waves. Simulation results of a prototype single-family house show that adopting the rule-based control (RBC) of pre-cooling thermostat setpoint schedule is effective in reducing thermal discomfort, and that the efficacy of pre-cooling depends upon several building characteristics. An optimized control (OC) of the thermostat setpoint schedule was developed based on the simulation of a prototype building. A simplified yet improved RBC (IRBC) pre-cooling schedule was then extracted from the OC schedule for practical implementation at a larger scale. The effects of the RBC schedule and IRBC schedule were evaluated in the King District of Fresno, which contains 814 residential buildings. Results show that both thermostat setpoint schedules can reduce overheating effectively and that IRBC is slightly better than RBC for most buildings. The findings support the California government's recommendation on pre-cooling to mitigate overheating, which can be further improved with an optimized thermostat setpoint schedule broadcast to residents through early alert messages before a heat wave.

Disadvantaged communities face a growing threat to staying safe during heat waves, especially during coincident power outages. This study develops a methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of passive cooling measures (those that operate without power) to improve residential building heat resilience. Building performance is simulated for representative homes and on district scales in two disadvantaged communities in Fresno, California. Eleven passive measures are evaluated using four heat resilience metrics with and without grid power. Results show performance of the mitigation measures varies by building characteristics, surrounding environment, and power scenario. The two most effective measures were installing solar-control window films and adding roof insulation. For pre-1978 single-family homes, these two measures can reduce unmet degree-hours (UDH) indoors by 12% and 11% respectively without grid power, or 28% and 37% with grid power. Their respective UDH reductions at district scale typically range 8% — 20% and 4% — 12% without grid power, or 14% — 44% and 8% — 51% with grid power. Top floors have higher overheating risk than lower floors during extreme heat events with coincident power outages. Natural ventilation can help, reducing UDH by 21% — 26%. The methodology and findings from this study can help cities, communities, and utilities develop effective and targeted strategies to promote greater residential heat resilience.

This paper presents new results on the link between energy factors and commercial mortgage default. First, we summarize results from an empirical analysis of the impact of source energy use intensity (EUI) and electricity prices on mortgage default. We used a unique data set that merges building-level energy use data from city benchmarking ordinances and financial data for commercial mortgages on the same buildings. We found that building source EUI and electricity price are statistically and economically associated with commercial mortgage defaults.Next, we present five case studies on the impact of energy use and price variations on default risk: three office buildings, a hotel, and a multi-family residential building. We use the empirical model coefficients to compute the default risk impacts due to variations in source EUI and electricity price over the course of the mortgage term. We found that variations in source EUI could raise or lower the default rates in these properties by between 5% and 40%, depending on the property type and geography. Electricity pricing has an even greater effect – roughly 60% change in default rate in the Denver area and nearly 90% in northern California. Finally, we propose an energy risk score that lenders can use to assess energy risk and inform mortgage terms. The score is being developed and piloted in collaboration with three mortgage lenders. We conclude with implications of this score as a market signal and mechanism for incentivizing energy efficiency investments through the commercial mortgage channel.

Urban microclimate exerts an increasing influence on urban buildings, energy, and sustainability. This study uses 10-year measured hourly weather data at 27 sites in San Francisco, California, to (1) analyze and visualize the urban microclimate patterns and urban heat island effect; (2) simulate annual energy use and peak electricity demand of typical large office buildings and large hotels to investigate the influence of urban microclimate on building performance; (3) simulate indoor air temperature of a single-family house without air-conditioning during the record three-day heatwave of 2017, to quantify the divergence of climate resilience due to urban microclimate effect. Results show significant microclimate effects in San Francisco with up to 11 °C outdoor air temperature difference between the coastal and downtown areas on September 1, 2017, during the record three-day heatwave. The simulated energy results of the prototype large office and large hotel buildings using the 2017 weather data show over 100% difference in annual heating energy use and 65% difference in annual cooling energy use across different stations; as well as up to 30% difference in peak cooling electricity demand. The impacts on annual site or source energy use are minimal (less than 5%) as cooling and heating in a mild climate are a relatively small portion of overall building energy use in San Francisco. Results also show the microclimate effects influence indoor air temperature of unconditioned homes by up to 5 °C. Newer buildings and homes are much less affected by microclimate effects due to more stringent performance requirements of the building envelope and energy systems. These findings inform that San Francisco microclimate variations should be considered in urban energy planning, building energy codes and standards, as well as heat resilience policymaking.

The small commercial office market experiences a number of unique barriers to achieving substantial energy reductions. Those barriers include: 1) a lack of awareness of and access to centralized, comprehensive, cost-evaluative information about how to achieve energy targets, and 2) affordable access to energy reduction services such as engineering and auditingservices. Energy efficiency tools and services currently involve higher costs on a per-square-foot or kilowatt-hour (kWh)-saved basis. Small commercial buildings are consequently underserved by the energy services market and disadvantaged in accessing the same detailed retrofit information that larger buildings realize. Meeting national and state energy goals requireswhole-building integrated solutions that enable this sector to realize deep energy savings successfully and affordably.This project developed cost-effective retrofit packages of commercial, whole-building integrated systems to achieve zero net energy (ZNE) performance for California multi-story small commercial offices. The energy efficiency measure (EEM) packages target 50% energy savings over existing energy use, with costs within 10% of conventional-performance construction costs, and internal rates of return (IRR) of 5% or more. The developed packages of EEMs are validated for energy performance, as well as visual and thermal comfort, under both controlled laboratory test conditions for emerging technologies and demonstrated in an occupied small commercial building. Validated EEMs were built into an online public software platform that enables small commercial facilities to conduct whole-building retrofit assessments, relevant to their building, providing cost-evaluative feedback on EEMs and packages of measures.

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) seeks to evaluate strategies to optimize building energy use at urban scale to support a city's building energy goals. Prototype building models are usually developed to represent typical urban building characteristics of a specific use type, construction year, and climate zone, as detailed characteristics of individual buildings at urban scale are difficult to obtain. This study investigated the Italian building stock, developing 46 building prototypes, based on construction year, for residential and office buildings. The study included 16 single-family buildings, 16 multi-family buildings, and 14 office buildings. Building envelope properties and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system characteristics were defined according to existing building energy codes and standards for climatic zone E, which covers about half the Italian municipalities. Novel contributions of this study include (1) detailed specifications of prototype building energy models for Italian residential and office buildings that can be adopted by UBEM tools, and (2) a dataset in GeoJSON format of Italian urban buildings compiled from diverse data sources and national standards. The developed prototype building specifications, the building dataset, and the workflow can be applied to create other building prototypes and to support Italian national building energy efficiency and environmental goals.

Data centers in the United States consume about two percent of the nation's electricity. Because heat gains from IT equipment drive cooling demand, data centers offer unique opportunities for energy savings. However, no prototype energy model for data centers is available in the suite of existing U.S. Department of Energy's Commercial Prototype Building Models. This study presented the development of two new data center prototype models and their implementation in OpenStudio and EnergyPlus. The small-size data center model represents a computer room in a building served by computer room air conditioners (CRACs); while the large-sized model represents stand-alone data centers served by computer room air handlers (CRAHs) with a central chiller plant. For each data center model, two levels of IT equipment (ITE) load density were considered, to cover the wide range of IT power density of data centers: 40 and 100 W/ft2 (430 and 1076 W/m2) for the computer room, and 100 and 500 W/ft2 (1076 and 5382 W/m2) for the stand-alone data center. All other assumptions, such as building envelope, lighting, HVAC efficiencies and schedules, were based on the minimal requirements of ASHRAE Standard 90.1 at various vintages. We introduced a novel concept of supply and return air approach temperatures to capture the essential effects of non-uniform airflow and temperature distribution in data centers. The approach temperatures were pre-computed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for various configurations of ITE loads and airflow containment management in data centers. A new feature was developed in EnergyPlus to implement the approach temperature method. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the use of the data center models. The two data center models cover all U.S. climate zones and can be used to evaluate energy saving measures for data centers, as well as to support development of data center energy efficiency codes and standards.

Zero-net-energy (ZNE) homes produce an adequate amount of energy on-site to meet their energy demand based on source energy for an entire year. California building energy efficiency standards require new residential buildings started in 2020 to be ZNE. For various reasons, a home designed as ZNE may not achieve ZNE performance in real operation. This study aimed to quantify the robustness of the energy performance of ZNE homes due to weather variability, climate change, and the uncertainty of occupant behavior. A single-family ZNE house, based on the optimal cost-effective design in three California climate zones, was used to develop the EnergyPlus simulation models. Weather variations were considered from a combination of the historical 30 years’ actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, typical year weather data in TMY3, and future weather data based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. Three scenarios of occupant behavior from the energy perspective were defined to represent the uncertainty about occupants’ activities, comfort requirements, and their adaptive interactions with buildings and systems. In terms of annual source energy, the simulation results of the ZNE homes showed: (1) a decrease of 23–38 percent for occupants with energy austerity behavior and an increase of 120–130 percent for occupants with energy wasteful behavior, compared with the baseline assumption of normal occupants; (2) a variation range of −15 percent to +14 percent for the results using 30-year AMY weather data compared with the baseline results using TMY3 weather data; (3) an increase of 10–13 percent with future weather in Fresno and Riverside and a decrease of 15 percent with San Francisco; and (4) climate change can reduce the gap between the austerity and wasteful consumption. These findings provide insights into how ZNE homes may perform in reality and inform architects, engineers, occupants, and policymakers to pay more attention to occupant behavior on design, operation, and regulations of ZNE homes to ensure energy performance robustness.

Nowadays, large open spaces are popular in office buildings. However, occupants often complain about too cold and/or too warm in large open spaces. It remains a challenge to control the operation of air-conditioning systems to provide occupant comfort due to the ununiform distribution of airflow, internal heat gains and occupancy. Previous studies using CFD tools or building energy modelling tools alone did not solve the combined problem of the distributive temperature field in the space and the cooling demand from multiple terminal units. This study proposed to divide the large space into multiple subzone areas based on the layout of the terminal cooling equipment and the distribution of internal heat gains and occupancy. Regarding the uneven thermal environment among subzones, a coupling of FLUENT with EnergyPlus is used to compute the optimal thermostat setpoint for each subzone to ensure uniform occupant comfort in the large space. EnergyPlus computes the interior wall surface temperatures and terminal unit supply air flowrate of each subzone, which are passed to the CFD simulations as boundary conditions; while FLUENT simulates the temperature and PMV field with user defined function (UDF), as well as airflow rates across the virtual partition walls between two adjacent subzones, which are passed to EnergyPlus for consideration as inter-zone airflow. A case study using open office space in Hong Kong is conducted to demonstrate the validity of the methodology. Different temperature setpoints were estimated for the subzones, and the results indicated the subzone-based temperature setpoint could achieve uniform occupant thermal comfort and avoid overcooling. In addition, the coupling method improves the prediction accuracy of cooling energy than the standalone EnergyPlus program. Therefore, the coupling method can effectively provide a thermally comfortable environment with less energy use in large open office served by multiple terminal units.

Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. We conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events.

Weather data at nearby airports are usually used in building energy simulation to estimate energy use in buildings or evaluate building design or retrofit options. However, due to urbanization and geography characteristics, local weather conditions can differ significantly from those at airports. This study presents the visualization of 10-year hourly weather data measured at 27 sites in San Francisco, aiming to provide insights into the urban microclimate and urban heat island effect in San Francisco and how they evolve during the recent decade. The 10-year weather data are used in building energy simulations to investigate its influence on energy use and electrical peak demand, which informs the city's policy making on building energy efficiency and resilience. The visualization feature is implemented in CityBES, an open web-based data and computing platform for urban building energy research.

The recent wildfires in California, U.S., have caused not only significant losses to human life and property, but also serious environmental and health issues. Ambient air pollution from combustion during the fires could increase indoor exposure risks to toxic gases and particles, further exacerbating respiratory conditions. This work aims at addressing existing knowledge gaps in understanding how indoor air quality is affected by outdoor air pollutants during wildfires-by taking into account occupant behaviors (e.g., movement, operation of windows and air-conditioning) which strongly influence building performance and occupant comfort. A novel modeling framework was developed to simulate the indoor exposure risks considering the impact of occupant behaviors by integrating building energy and occupant behaviour modeling with computational fluid dynamics simulation. Occupant behaviors were found to exert significant impacts on indoor air flow patterns and pollutant concentrations, based on which, certain behaviors are recommended during wildfires. Further, the actual respiratory injury level under such outdoor conditions was predicted. The modeling framework and the findings enable a deeper understanding of the actual health impacts of wildfires, as well as informing strategies for mitigating occupant health risk during wildfires.

Buildings consume more than one-third of the world’s primary energy. Reducing energy use and greenhouse-gas emissions in the buildings sector through energy conservation and efficiency improvements constitutes a key strategy for achieving global energy and environmental goals. Building performance simulation has been increasingly used as a tool for designing, operating and retrofitting buildings to save energy and utility costs. However, opportunities remain for researchers, software developers, practitioners and policymakers to maximize the value of building performance simulation in the design and operation of low energy buildings and communities that leverage interdisciplinary approaches to integrate humans, buildings, and the power grid at a large scale. This paper presents ten challenges that highlight some of the most important issues in building performance simulation, covering the full building life cycle and a wide range of modeling scales. The formulation and discussion of each challenge aims to provide insights into the state-of-the-art and future research opportunities for each topic, and to inspire new questions from young researchers in this field.

Climate change and increased electrification of space and water heating in buildings can significantly affect future electricity demand and hourly demand profiles, which has implications for electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and capacity requirements. We use EnergyPlus to quantify building energy demand under historical and under several climate change projections of 32 kinds of building prototypes in 16 different climate zones of California and imposed these impacts on a year 2050 electric grid configuration by simulation in the Holistic Grid Resource Integration and Deployment (HIGRID) model. We find that climate change only prompted modest increases in grid resource capacity and negligible difference in greenhouse gas emissions since the additional electric load generally occurred during times with available renewable generation. Heating electrification, however, prompted a 30-40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions but required significant grid resource capacity increases, due to the higher magnitude of load increases and lack of readily available renewable generation during the times when electrified heating loads occurred. Overall, this study translates climate change and electrification impacts to system-wide endpoint impacts on future electric grid configurations and highlights the complexities associated with translating building-level impacts to electric system-wide impacts.

This paper presents new results on the link between energy factors and commercial mortgage default. First, we summarize results from an empirical analysis of the impact of source energy use intensity (EUI) and electricity prices on mortgage default. We used a unique data set that merges building-level energy use data from city benchmarking ordinances and financial data for commercial mortgages on the same buildings. We found that building source EUI and electricity price are statistically and economically associated with commercial mortgage defaults.Next, we present five case studies on the impact of energy use and price variations on default risk: three office buildings, a hotel, and a multi-family residential building. We use the empirical model coefficients to compute the default risk impacts due to variations in source EUI and electricity price over the course of the mortgage term. We found that variations in source EUI could raise or lower the default rates in these properties by between 5% and 40%, depending on the property type and geography. Electricity pricing has an even greater effect – roughly 60% change in default rate in the Denver area and nearly 90% in northern California. Finally, we propose an energy risk score that lenders can use to assess energy risk and inform mortgage terms. The score is being developed and piloted in collaboration with three mortgage lenders. We conclude with implications of this score as a market signal and mechanism for incentivizing energy efficiency investments through the commercial mortgage channel.

As one of the latest emerging HVAC technologies, the Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) system with heat recovery (HR) configurations has obtained extensive attention from both the academia and industry. Compared with the conventional VRF systems with heat pump (HP) configurations, VRF-HR is capable of recovering heat from cooling zones to heating zones and providing simultaneous cooling and heating operations. This can further lead to substantial energy saving potential and more flexible zonal control. In this paper, a novel model is developed to simulate the energy performance of VRF-HR systems. It adheres to a more physics-based development with the ability to simulate the refrigerant loop performance and consider the dynamics of more operational parameters, which is essential for representing more advanced control logics. Another key feature of the model is the introduction of component-level curves for indoor units and outdoor units instead of overall performance curves for the entire system, and thus it requires much fewer user-specified performance curves as model inputs. The validation study shows good agreements between the simulated energy use from the new VRF-HR model and the laboratory measurement data across all operational modes at sub-hourly time steps. The model has been adopted in the official release of the EnergyPlus simulation program since Version 8.6, which enables more accurate and robust assessments of VRF-HR systems to support their applications in energy retrofit of existing buildings or design of zero-net-energy buildings.

Building retrofits provide a large opportunity to significantly reduce energy consumption in the buildings sector. Traditional building retrofits focus on equipment upgrades, often at the end of equipment life or failure, and result in replacement with marginally improved similar technology and limited energy savings. The Integrated System (IS) retrofit approach enables much greater energy savings by leveraging interactive effects between end use systems, enabling downsized or lower energy technologies. This paper presents a case study in Hawaii quantifying the benefits of an IS retrofit approach compared to two traditional retrofit approaches: a Standard Practice of upgrading equipment to meet minimum code requirements, and an Improved Practice of upgrading equipment to a higher efficiency. The IS approach showed an energy savings of 84% over existing building energy use, much higher than the traditional approaches of 13% and 33%. The IS retrofit also demonstrated the greatest energy cost savings potential. While the degree of savings realized from the IS approach will vary by building and climate, these findings indicate that savings on the order of 50% and greater are not possible without an IS approach. It is therefore recommended that the IS approach be universally adopted to achieve deep energy savings.

District cooling systems are widely used in urban residential communities in China. Most of such systems are oversized, which leads to wasted investment, low operational efficiency and, thus, waste of energy. The accurate prediction of district cooling loads that can support the rightsizing of cooling plant equipment remains a challenge. This study develops a novel stochastic modeling method that consists of (1) six prototype house models representing most apartments in a district, (2) occupant behavior models of residential buildings reflecting their spatial and temporal diversity as well as their complexity based on a large-scale residential survey in China, and (3) a stochastic sampling process to represent all apartments and occupants in the district. The stochastic method was applied to a case study using the Designer's Simulation Toolkit (DeST) to simulate the cooling loads of a residential district in Wuhan, China. The simulation results agreed well with the measured data based on five performance metrics representing the aggregated cooling consumption, the peak cooling loads, the spatial load distribution, the temporal load distribution and the load profiles. Two prevalent simulation methods were also employed to simulate the district cooling loads. The results showed that oversimplified assumptions about occupant behavior could lead to significant overestimation of the peak cooling load and the total cooling loads in the district. Future work will aim to simplify the workflow and data requirements of the stochastic method for its application, and to explore its use in predicting district heating loads and in commercial or mixed-use districts.

To improve energy efficiency—during new buildings design or during a building retrofit—evaluating the energy savings potential of energy conservation measures (ECMs) is a critical task. In building retrofits, occupant behavior significantly impacts building energy use and is a leading factor in uncertainty when determining the effectiveness of retrofit ECMs. Current simulation-based assessment methods simplify the representation of occupant behavior by using a standard or representative set of static and homogeneous assumptions ignoring the dynamics, stochastics, and diversity of occupant's energy-related behavior in buildings. The simplification contributes to significant gaps between the simulated and measured actual energy performance of buildings. This study presents a framework for quantifying the impact of occupant behaviors on ECM energy savings using building performance simulation. During the first step of the study, three occupant behavior styles (austerity, normal, and wasteful) were defined to represent different levels of energy consciousness of occupants regarding their interactions with building energy systems (HVAC, windows, lights and plug-in equipment). Next, a simulation workflow was introduced to determine a range of the ECM energy savings. Then, guidance was provided to interpret the range of ECM savings to support ECM decision making. Finally, a pilot study was performed in a real building to demonstrate the application of the framework. Simulation results show that the impact of occupant behaviors on ECM savings vary with the type of ECM. Occupant behavior minimally affects energy savings for ECMs that are technology-driven (the relative savings differ by less than 2%) and have little interaction with the occupants; for ECMs with strong occupant interaction, such as the use of zonal control variable refrigerant flow system and natural ventilation, energy savings are significantly affected by occupant behavior (the relative savings differ by up to 20%). The study framework provides a novel, holistic approach to assessing the uncertainty of ECM energy savings related to occupant behavior, enabling stakeholders to understand and assess the risk of adopting energy efficiency technologies for new and existing buildings.

Internal heat gains from occupants, lighting, and plug loads are significant components of the space cooling load in an office building. Internal heat gains vary with time and space. The spatial diversity is significant, even for spaces with the same function in the same building. The stochastic nature of internal heat gains makes determining the peak cooling load to size air-conditioning systems a challenge. The traditional conservative practice of considering the largest internal heat gain among spaces and applying safety factors overestimates the space cooling load, which leads to oversized air-conditioning equipment and chiller plants. In this study, a field investigation of several large office buildings in China led to the development of a new probabilistic approach that represents the spatial diversity of the design internal heat gain of each tenant as a probability distribution function. In a large office building, a central chiller plant serves all air handling units (AHUs), with each AHU serving one or more floors of the building. Therefore, the spatial diversity should be considered differently when the peak cooling loads to size the AHUs and chillers are calculated. The proposed approach considers two different levels of internal heat gains to calculate the peak cooling loads and size the AHUs and chillers in order to avoid oversizing, improve the overall operating efficiency, and thus reduce energy use.

Occupant behavior in buildings is a leading factor influencing energy use in buildings. Low-cost behavioral solutions have demonstrated significant potential energy savings. Estimating the behavioral savings potential is important for a more effective design of behavior change interventions, which in turn will support more effective energy-efficiency policies. This study introduces a simulation approach to estimate the energy savings potential of occupant behavior measures. First it defines five typical occupant behavior measures in office buildings, then simulates and analyzes their individual and integrated impact on energy use in buildings. The energy performance of the five behavior measures was evaluated using EnergyPlus simulation for a real office building across four typical U.S. climates and two vintages. The Occupancy Simulator was used to simulate the occupant movement in each zone with inputs from the site survey of the case building. Based on the simulation results, the occupant behavior measures can achieve overall site energy savings as high as 22.9% for individual measures and up to 41.0% for integrated measures. Although energy savings of behavior measures would vary depending upon many factors, the presented simulation approach is robust and can be adopted for other studies aiming to quantify occupant behavior impact on building performance.

Variable air volume (VAV) and variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems are widely used in office buildings. This study investigated VAV and VRF systems in five typical office buildings in China, and compared their cooling energy use. Site survey and field measurements were conducted to collect the data of building characteristics and operation. Measured cooling electricity use was collected from sub-metering in the five buildings. The sub-metering data normalized by climate and operating hours indicated that the cooling energy consumed by VRF systems was up to 70% lower than that consumed by VAV systems. This was mainly because of the different operation modes of both system types that led to significantly fewer operating hours for the VRF systems. Building simulations were used to quantify the impact of operation modes of VRF and VAV systems on cooling loads. A prototype office building in China was used as the model. The simulation results showed that the VRF operation mode required much lower cooling load when compared to the VAV operation mode. For example, the cooling loads decreased by 42% in Hong Kong and 53% in Qingdao. The key findings include the following: the VRF systems operated in the part-time-part-space mode enabling occupants to turn on the air-conditioning only when needed and when the spaces were occupied. However, the VAV systems operated in the full-time-full-space mode limiting occupants’ control of operation. These findings provide insights into VRF systems operation and controls as well as their energy performance, which could help guide HVAC designers on system selection and building operators or facility managers on system operations to achieve low- or zero-net energy buildings.