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We analyse the evolution of the largest ionized region using the topological and morphological evolution of the redshifted 21-cm signal coming from the neutral hydrogen distribution during the different stages of reionization. For this analysis, we use the "Largest Cluster Statistics" - LCS. We mainly study the impact of the array synthesized beam on the LCS analysis of the 21-cm signal considering the upcoming low-frequency Square Kilometer Array (SKA1-Low) observations using a realistic simulation for such observation based on the 21cmE2E-pipeline using OSKAR. We find that bias in LCS estimation is introduced in synthetic observations due to the array beam. This in turn shifts the apparent percolation transition point towards the later stages of reionization. The biased estimates of LCS, occurring due to the effect of the lower resolution (lack of longer baselines) and the telescope synthesized beam will lead to a biased interpretation of the reionization history. This is important to note while interpreting any future 21-cm signal images from upcoming or future telescopes like the SKA, HERA, etc. We conclude that one may need denser $uv$-coverage at longer baselines for a better deconvolution of the array synthesized beam from the 21-cm images and a relatively unbiased estimate of LCS from such images., 37 pages, 14 figures, Published in Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics (JCAP)

Detecting the line-intensity mapping (LIM) signal from the galaxies of the Epoch of Reionization is an emerging tool to constrain their role in reionization. Ongoing and upcoming experiments target the signal fluctuations across the sky to reveal statistical and astrophysical properties of these galaxies via signal statistics, e.g., the power spectrum. Here, we revisit the [C II]$_{158 \mu \text{m}}$ LIM power spectrum under non-uniform line-luminosity scatter, which has a halo-mass variation of statistical properties. Line-luminosity scatter from a cosmological hydrodynamic and radiative transfer simulation of galaxies at $z=6$ is considered in this study. We test the robustness of different model frameworks that interpret the impact of the line-luminosity scatter on the signal statistics. We use a simple power-law model to fit the scatter and demonstrate that the mean luminosity-halo mass correlation fit cannot preserve the mean intensity of the LIM signal (hence the clustering power spectrum) under non-uniform scatter. In our case, the mean intensity changes by $\sim 48$ per cent compared to the mean correlation fit in contrast to the general case with semi-analytic scatter. However, we find that the prediction for the mean intensity from the most-probable fit can be modelled robustly, considering the generalized and more realistic non-uniform scatter. We also explore the possibility of diminishing luminosity bias under non-uniform scatter, affecting the clustering power spectrum, although this phenomenon might not be statistically significant. Therefore, we should adopt appropriate approaches that can consistently interpret the LIM power spectrum from observations., Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, comments are welcome, accepted in MNRAS

We consider a sample of 82 non-repeating fast radio bursts (FRBs) detected at Parkes, ASKAP, CHIME, and UTMOST, each of which operates over a different frequency range and has a different detection criterion. Using simulations, we perform a maximum-likelihood analysis to determine the FRB population model that best fits these data. Our analysis shows that models where the pulse scatter broadening increases moderately with redshift (z) are preferred to those where this increases very sharply or where scattering is absent. Further, models where the comoving event rate density is constant over z are preferred to those where it follows the cosmological star formation rate. Two models for the host dispersion measure (DMHost) distribution (a fixed and a random DMHost) are found to predict comparable results. We obtain the best-fitting parameter values $\alpha =-1.53^{+0.29}_{-0.19}$, $\overline{E}_{33}=1.55^{+0.26}_{-0.22}$, and γ = 0.77 ± 0.24. Here α is the spectral index, γ is the exponent of the Schechter luminosity function, and $\overline{E}_{33}$ is the mean FRB energy in units of $10^{33} \, {\rm J}$ across 2128–2848 MHz in the FRB rest frame.

The Epoch of Reionization (EoR) remains a poorly understood cosmic era for the most part. Yet, efforts are still going on to probe and understand this epoch. We present a review of the latest developments in the techniques (especially line-intensity mapping) to study the EoR and try to highlight the contribution of the Indian community in this field. Line-emissions like [H I]$_{\rm 21cm}$, Lyman-$\alpha$, [C II]$_{\text{158}\mu\text{m}}$ and their role as tracers in probing the EoR are discussed. While the [H I]$_{\rm 21cm}$ is an excellent probe of the early IGM, the others are mainly targeted to do an unresolved and large-scale survey of the reionizing sources. Techniques to model these signals include simulations and machine learning approaches, along with the challenge to tackle foregrounds or interlopers. We also discuss synergy opportunities among the various tracers that we mention. Synergy addresses different aspects of the problem, which otherwise is difficult or impossible to tackle. They include statistics like cross-power spectrum, cross-bispectrum, and other techniques such as follow-up studies. We present updates on the relevant experiments; these include the upper limits on the [H I]$_{\rm 21cm}$ power spectrum, along with some highlights on high-redshift galaxy surveys. Finally, we highlight what can be improved further within the community: applying machine learning and simulations based on hydrodynamic and radiative-transfer techniques. Next-generation experiments also need to be conceived to address issues currently beyond our reach., Comment: Review article, 24 pages, 6 figures, comments are welcome, accepted in Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy

We characterize the intrinsic properties of any FRB using its redshift $z$, spectral index $\alpha$ and energy $E_{33}$ in units of $10^{33} \, {\rm J}$ emitted across $2128 - 2848\; {\rm MHz}$ in the FRB's rest frame. Provided that $z$ is inferred from the measured extra-galactic dispersion measure $DM_{\rm Ex}$, the fluence $F$ of the observed event defines a track in $(\alpha, E_{33})$ space which we refer to as the "energy track". Here we consider the energy tracks for a sample of $254$ non-repeating low dispersion measure FRBs from the CHIME/FRB Catalog-1, and use these to determine $n(E_{33} \mid \alpha)$ the conditional energy distribution i.e. the number of FRBs in the interval $\Delta E_{33}$ given a value of $\alpha$. Considering $-10 \le \alpha \le 10$, we find that the entire energy scale shifts to higher energy values as $\alpha$ is increased. For all values of $\alpha$, we can identify two distinct energy ranges indicating that there are possibly two distinct FRB populations. At high energies, the distribution is well fitted by a modified Schechter function whose slope and characteristic energy both increase with $\alpha$. At low energies, the number of FRBs are in excess of the predictions of the modified Schechter function indicating that we may have a distinctly different population of low-energy FRBs. We have checked that our main findings are reasonably robust to the assumptions regarding the Galactic Halo and Host galaxy contributions to the dispersion measure., Comment: 7 pages, 9 figures, Submitted to MNRAS

This article explores socio-spatial dimensions of risk and how they can enhance understanding of a high burden tuberculosis (TB) context in the South Fly District of Papua New Guinea. We report on select findings from a qualitative study that included 128 semi-structured in-depth interviews and 10 focus group discussions with a wide range of South Fly District community members. Using the conceptual framework of ‘riskscapes’ to examine emic perspectives on risk, space and practice, we map key elements of TB riskscapes on Daru Island, South Fly District, along with solutions for navigating through these riskscapes. Overcrowding, lack of water, sanitation and hygiene, as well as food insecurity and undernutrition, were identified as common elements within participants’ riskscapes, that compounded upon each other to create the perception of an assemblage of risk favourable to TB transmission.

The radiations from the first luminous sources drive the fluctuations in the 21-cm signal at Cosmic Dawn (CD) via two dominant astrophysical processes i.e. the Ly$\alpha$ coupling and X-ray heating, making this signal highly non-Gaussian. The impact of these processes on the 21-cm signal and its non-Gaussianity vary depending on the properties of these first sources of light. In this work, we consider different CD scenarios by varying two major source parameters i.e. the minimum halo mass $M_{\rm h,\, min}$ and X-ray photon production efficiency $f_{\rm X}$ in a 1D radiative transfer code GRIZZLY. We study the impact of variation in these source parameters on the large scale ($k_1 = 0.16 {\, \rm Mpc}^{-1}$) 21-cm bispectrum for all possible unique triangles in the Fourier domain. Our detailed and comparative analysis of the power spectrum and bispectrum shows that the shape, sign and magnitude of the bispectrum combinedly provide the best measure of the signal fluctuations and its non-Gaussianity compared to the power spectrum. We also conclude that it is important to study the sequence of sign changes along with the variations in the shape and magnitude of the bispectrum throughout the CD history to arrive at a robust conclusion about the dominant IGM processes at different cosmic times. We further observe that among all the possible unique $k$-triangles, the large-scale non-Gaussianity in signal is best probed by the small $k$-triangles in the squeezed limit and by triangles of similar shapes. This opens up the possibility of constraining the source parameters during the CD using the 21-cm bispectrum., Comment: 29 pages, 10 figures, Accepted for publication in JCAP

The bispectrum can quantify the non-Gussianity present in the redshifted 21-cm signal produced by the neutral hydrogen (HI) during the epoch of reionization (EoR). Motivated by this, we perform a comprehensive study of the EoR 21-cm bispectrum using simulated signals. Given a model of reionization, we demonstrate the behaviour of the bispectrum for all unique triangles in $k$ space. For ease of identification of the unique triangles, we parametrize the $k$-triangle space with two parameters, namely the ratio of the two arms of the triangle ($n=k_2/k_1$) and the cosine of the angle between them ($\cos{\theta}$). Furthermore, for the first time, we quantify the impact of the redshift space distortions (RSD) on the spherically averaged EoR 21-cm bispectrum in the entire unique triangle space. We find that the real space signal bispectra for small and intermediate $k_1$-triangles ($k_1 \leq 0.6 \,{\rm Mpc^{-1}}$) is negative in most of the unique triangle space. It takes a positive sign for squeezed, stretched and linear $k_1$-triangles, specifically for large $k_1$ values ($k_1 \geq 0.6 \,{\rm Mpc^{-1}}$). The RSD affects both the sign and magnitude of the bispectra significantly. It changes (increases/decreases) the magnitude of the bispectra by $50-100\%$ without changing its sign (mostly) during the entire period of the EoR for small and intermediate $k_1$-triangles. For larger $k_1$-triangles, RSD affects the magnitude by $100-200\%$ and also flips the sign from negative to positive. We conclude that it is important to take into account the impact of RSD for a correct interpretation of the EoR 21-cm bispectra., Comment: 18 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in the MNRAS. Replaced to match the accepted version

The evolution of topology and morphology of ionized or neutral hydrogen during different stages of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) have the potential to provide us a great amount of information about the properties of the ionizing sources during this era. We compare a variety of reionization source models in terms of the geometrical properties of the ionized regions. We show that the percolation transition in the ionized hydrogen, as studied by tracing the evolution of the Largest Cluster Statistics (LCS), is a robust statistic that can distinguish the fundamentally different scenarios -- inside-out and outside-in reionization. Particularly, the global neutral fraction at the onset of percolation is significantly higher for the inside-out scenario as compared to that for the outside-in reionization. In complementary to percolation analysis, we explore the shape and morphology of the ionized regions as they evolve in different reionization models in terms of the Shapefinders (SFs) that are ratios of the Minkowski functionals (MFs). The shape distribution can readily discern the reionization scenario with extreme non-uniform recombination in the IGM, such as the clumping model. In the rest of the reionization models, the largest ionized region abruptly grows only in terms of its third SF - 'length' - during percolation while the first two SFs - 'thickness' and 'breadth' - remain stable. Thus the ionized hydrogen in these scenarios becomes highly filamentary near percolation and exhibit a 'characteristic cross-section' that varies among the source models. Therefore, the geometrical studies based on SFs, together with the percolation analysis can shed light on the reionization sources., Comment: 33 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in JCAP

Observation of the redshifted 21-cm signal from Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionization is a challenging endeavor in observational cosmology. Presence of orders of magnitude brighter astrophysical foregrounds and various instrumental systematics increases the complexity of these observations. This work presents an end-to-end pipeline dealing with synthetic interferometric data of sensitive radio observations . The mock sky model includes the redshifted 21-cm signal and astrophysical foregrounds. The effects of calibration error and position error in the extraction of the redshifted 21-cm power spectrum has been simulated. The effect of the errors in the image plane detection of the cosmological signal has also been studied. A comparative analysis for array configurations like the SKA1-Low, MWA and HERA has been demonstrated. The calibration error tolerance of the arrays, under some assumptions about the nature of the systematic components, is optimally found to be $\sim 0.01\%$ for the detection of the signal. For position errors, an offset of $\gtrapprox 5\arcsec$ makes the residual foregrounds obscure the target signal. These simulations also imply that in the SKA-1 Low performs marginally better than the others in the image domain, while the same is true for MWA in the power spectrum domain. This is one of the first studies that compares performance of various radio telescopes operating under similar observing conditions towards detecting the cosmological signal. This end-to-end pipeline can also be extended to study effects of chromatic primary beam, radio frequency inferences, foregrounds with spectral features, etc., Comment: 19 pages, 21 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Background Molecular mechanisms determining the transmission and prevalence of drug resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) in Papua New Guinea (PNG) are poorly understood. We used genomic and drug susceptibility data to explore the evolutionary history, temporal acquisition of resistance and transmission dynamics of DR-TB across PNG. Methods We performed whole genome sequencing on isolates from Central Public Health Laboratory, PNG, collected 2017–2019. Data analysis was done on a composite dataset that also included 100 genomes previously sequenced from Daru, PNG (2012–2015). Results Sampled isolates represented 14 of the 22 PNG provinces, the majority (66/94; 70%) came from the National Capital District (NCD). In the composite dataset, 91% of strains were Beijing 2.2.1.1, identified in 13 provinces. Phylogenetic tree of Beijing strains revealed two clades, Daru dominant clade (A) and NCD dominant clade (B). Multi-drug resistance (MDR) was repeatedly and independently acquired, with the first MDR cases in both clades noted to have emerged in the early 1990s, while fluoroquinolone resistance emerged in 2009 (95% highest posterior density 2000–2016). We identified the presence of a frameshift mutation within Rv0678 (p.Asp47fs) which has been suggested to confer resistance to bedaquiline, despite no known exposure to the drug. Overall genomic clustering was significantly associated with rpoC compensatory and inhA promoter mutations (p Conclusions The acquisition and evolution of drug resistance among the major clades of Beijing strain threaten the success of DR-TB treatment in PNG. With continued transmission of this strain in PNG, genotypic drug resistance surveillance using whole genome sequencing is essential for improved public health response to outbreaks. With occurrence of resistance to newer drugs such as bedaquiline, knowledge of full drug resistance profiles will be important for optimal treatment selection.

Detection of the \hi~ 21-cm power spectrum is one of the key science drivers of several ongoing and upcoming low-frequency radio interferometers. However, the major challenge in such observations come from bright foregrounds, whose accurate removal or avoidance is key to the success of these experiments. In this work, we demonstrate the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to extract the \hi~ 21-cm power spectrum from synthetic datasets and extract the reionization parameters from the \hi~ 21-cm power spectrum. For the first time, using a suite of simulations, we present an ANN based framework capable of extracting the \hi~ signal power spectrum directly from the total observed sky power spectrum (which contains the 21-cm signal, along with the foregrounds and effects of the instrument). To achieve this, we have used a combination of two separate neural networks sequentially. As the first step, \texttt{ANN1} predicts the 21-cm power spectrum directly from foreground corrupted synthetic datasets. In the second step, \texttt{ANN2} predicts the reionization parameters from the predicted \hi~ power spectra from \texttt{ANN1}. Our ANN-based framework is trained at a redshift of $9.01$, and for \kk-modes in the range, $\rm{0.17, Comment: Submitted to MNRAS, under review

The HI 21-cm optical depth ($\tau_b$) can be considerably large as the kinetic and spin temperature of the inter-galactic medium (IGM) is expected to be very low during cosmic dawn. It will be particularly higher at regions with HI over-density. We revisit the validity of the widely used linearized equation for estimating the HI 21-cm differential brightness temperature ($T_b$) which assumes $\tau_b << 1$ and approximates $[1-\exp({-\tau_b})]$ as $\tau_b$. We consider two scenarios, one without any additional cooling mechanism or radio background (referred as the standard scenario) and the other (referred as the excess-cooling} scenario) assumes the EDGES-like absorption profile and an excess cooling mechanism. We find that given a measured global absorption signal, consistent with the standard (excess-cooling) scenario, the linearized equation overestimates the spin temperature by $\sim 5\%(10\%)$. Further, using numerical simulations, we study the impact that the large optical depth has on various signal statistics. We observe that the variance, skewness and kurtosis, calculated at simulation resolution ($\sim 0.5 h^{-1} \, {\rm Mpc}$), are over-predicted up to $\sim 30\%$, $30\%$ and $15\%$ respectively for the standard and up to $\sim 90\%$, $50\%$ and $50\%$ respectively for the excess-cooling scenario. Moreover, we find that the probability distribution function of $T_b$ is squeezed and becomes more Gaussian in shape if no approximation is made. The spherically averaged HI power spectrum is overpredicted by up to $\sim 25 \%$ and $80\%$ at all scales for the standard and excess-cooling scenarios respectively., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in the MNRAS

We study the spherically averaged bispectrum of the 21-cm signal from the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). This metric provides a quantitative measurement of the level of non-Gaussianity of the signal which is expected to be high. We focus on the impact of the light-cone effect on the bispectrum and its detectability with the future SKA-Low telescope. Our investigation is based on a single reionization light-cone model and an ensemble of 50 realisations of the 21-cm signal to estimate the cosmic variance errors. We calculate the bispectrum with a new, optimised direct estimation method, DviSukta which calculates the bispectrum for all possible unique triangles. We find that the light-cone effect becomes important on scales $k_1 \lesssim 0.1\,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ where for most triangle shapes the cosmic variance errors dominate. Only for the squeezed limit triangles, the impact of the light-cone effect exceeds the cosmic variance. Combining the effects of system noise and cosmic variance we find that $\sim 3\sigma$ detection of the bispectrum is possible for all unique triangle shapes around a scale of $k_1 \sim 0.2\,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, and cosmic variance errors dominate above and noise errors below this length scale. Only the squeezed limit triangles are able to achieve a more than $5\sigma$ significance over a wide range of scales, $k_1 \lesssim 0.8\,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. Our results suggest that among all the possible triangle combinations for the bispectrum, the squeezed limit one will be the most measurable and hence useful., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS, 12 pages, 13 figures

Measurements of the post-reionization 21-cm bispectrum $B_{{\rm HI}}(\mathbf{k_1},\mathbf{k_2},\mathbf{k_3})$ using various upcoming intensity mapping experiments hold the potential for determining the cosmological parameters at a high level of precision. In this paper we have estimated the 21-cm bispectrum in the $z$ range $1 \le z \le 6$ using semi-numerical simulations of the neutral hydrogen (${\rm HI}$) distribution. We determine the $k$ and $z$ range where the 21-cm bispectrum can be adequately modelled using the predictions of second order perturbation theory, and we use this to predict the redshift evolution of the linear and quadratic ${\rm HI}$ bias parameters $b_1$ and $b_2$ respectively. The $b_1$ values are found to decreases nearly linearly with decreasing $z$, and are in good agreement with earlier predictions obtained by modelling the 21-cm power spectrum $P_{{\rm HI}}(k)$. The $b_2$ values fall sharply with decreasing $z$, becomes zero at $z \sim 3$ and attains a nearly constant value $b_2 \approx - 0.36$ at $z, Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, MNRAS, submitted

The asymptotic solution to the problem of comparing the means of two heteroscedastic populations, based on two random samples from the populations, hinges on the pivot underpinning the construction of the confidence interval and the test statistic being asymptotically standard Normal, which is known to happen if the two samples are independent and the ratio of the sample sizes converges to a finite positive number. This restriction on the asymptotic behavior of the ratio of the sample sizes carries the risk of rendering the asymptotic justification of the finite sample approximation invalid. It turns out that neither the restriction on the asymptotic behavior of the ratio of the sample sizes nor the assumption of cross sample independence is necessary for the pivotal convergence in question to take place. If the joint distribution of the standardized sample means converges to a spherically symmetric distribution, then that distribution must be bivariate standard Normal (which can happen without the assumption of cross sample independence), and the aforesaid pivotal convergence holds., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1612.01668

We present a study of the 21-cm signal bispectrum (which quantifies the non-Gaussianity in the signal) from the Cosmic Dawn (CD). For our analysis, we have simulated the 21-cm signal using radiative transfer code GRIZZLY, while considering two types of sources (mini-QSOs and HMXBs) for Ly$\alpha$ coupling and the X-ray heating of the IGM. Using this simulated signal, we have, for the first time, estimated the CD 21-cm bispectra for all unique $k$-triangles and for a range of $k$ modes. We observe that the redshift evolution of the bispectra magnitude and sign follow a generic trend for both source models. However, the redshifts at which the bispectra magnitude reach their maximum and minimum values and show their sign reversal depends on the source model. When the Ly$\alpha$ coupling and the X-ray heating of the IGM occur simultaneously, we observe two consecutive sign reversals in the bispectra for small $k$-triangles (irrespective of the source models). One arising at the beginning of the IGM heating and the other at the end of Ly$\alpha$ coupling saturation. This feature can be used in principle to constrain the CD history and/or to identify the specific CD scenarios. We also quantify the impact of the spin temperature ($T_{\rm S}$) fluctuations on the bispectra. We find that $T_{\rm S}$ fluctuations have maximum impact on the bispectra magnitude for small $k$-triangles and at the stage when Ly$\alpha$ coupling reaches saturation. Furthermore, we are also the first to quantify the impact of redshift space distortions (RSD), on the CD bispectra. We find that the impact of RSD on the CD 21-cm bispectra is significant ($> 20\%$) and the level depends on the stages of the CD and the $k$-triangles for which the bispectra are being estimated., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures. Accepted for publication in the MNRAS. Replaced to match the accepted version

Radio interferometric experiments aim to constrain the reionization model parameters by measuring the 21-cm signal statistics, primarily the power spectrum. However the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal is highly non-Gaussian, and this non-Gaussianity encodes important information about this era. The bispectrum is the lowest order statistic able to capture this inherent non-Gaussianity. Here we are the first to demonstrate that bispectra for large and intermediate length scales and for all unique $k$-triangle shapes provide tighter constraints on the EoR parameters compared to the power spectrum or the bispectra for a limited number of shapes of $k$-triangles. We use the Bayesian inference technique to constrain EoR parameters. We have also developed an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based emulator for the EoR 21-cm power spectrum and bispectrum which we use to remarkably speed up our parameter inference pipeline. Here we have considered the sample variance and the system noise uncertainties corresponding to $1000$ hrs of SKA-Low observations for estimating errors in the signal statistics. We find that using all unique $k$-triangle bispectra improves the constraints on parameters by a factor of $2-4$ (depending on the stage of reionization) over the constraints that are obtained using power spectrum alone., 27 pages, 9 figures, Accepted for publication in JCAP

The nature of dark matter sets the timeline for the formation of first collapsed halos and thus affects the sources of reionization. Here, we consider two different models of dark matter: cold dark matter (CDM) and thermal warm dark matter (WDM), and study how they impact the epoch of reionization (EoR) and its 21-cm observables. Using a suite of simulations, we find that in the WDM scenarios, the structure formation on small scales gets suppressed resulting in a smaller number of low mass dark matter halos compared to the CDM scenario. Assuming that the efficiency of sources in producing ionizing photons remain the same, this leads to a lower number of total ionizing photons produced at any given cosmic time and thus in a delay in the reionization process. We also find visual differences in the neutral hydrogen (HI) topology and in 21-cm maps in case of the WDM compared to the CDM. However, differences in the 21-cm power spectra, at the same neutral fraction, are found to be small. Thus, we focus on the non-Gaussianity in the EoR 21-cm signal, quantified through its bispectrum. We find that the 21-cm bispectra (driven by the HI topology) are significantly different in WDM models when compared with CDM, even for same mass averaged neutral fractions. This establishes that the 21-cm bispectrum is a unique and promising way to differentiate between different dark matter models, and can be used to constrain the nature of the dark matter in the future EoR observations., Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

Three-dimensional radiative transfer simulations of the epoch of reionization can produce realistic results, but are computationally expensive. On the other hand, simulations relying on one-dimensional radiative transfer solutions are faster but limited in accuracy due to their more approximate nature. Here, we compare the performance of the reionization simulation codes grizzly and C2-ray which use 1D and 3D radiative transfer schemes respectively. The comparison is performed using the same cosmological density fields, halo catalogues and source properties. We find that the ionization maps, as well as the 21-cm signal maps from these two simulations are very similar even for complex scenarios which include thermal feedback on low mass halos. The comparison between the schemes in terms of the statistical quantities such as the power spectrum of the brightness temperature fluctuation agree with each other within 10% error throughout the entire reionization history. grizzly seems to perform slightly better than the semi-numerical approaches considered in Majumdar et al. (2014) which are based on the excursion set principle. We argue that grizzly can be efficiently used for exploring parameter space, establishing observations strategies and estimating parameters from 21-cm observations., 16 pages, Submitted to MNRAS

The dependence of the bispectrum on the size and shape of the triangle contains a wealth of cosmological information. Here we consider a triangle parameterization which allows us to separate the size and shape dependence. We have implemented an FFT based fast estimator for the three dimensional (3D) bin averaged bispectrum, and we demonstrate that it allows us to study the variation of the bispectrum across triangles of all possible shapes (and also sizes). The computational requirement is shown to scale as $\sim N_{\rm g}^3~\log{N_{\rm g}^3}$ where $N_g$ is the number of grid points along each side of the volume. We have validated the estimator using a non-Gaussian field for which the bispectrum can be analytically calculated. The estimated bispectrum values are found to be in good agreement ($< 10 \%$ deviation) with the analytical predictions across much of the triangle-shape parameter space. We also introduce linear redshift space distortion, a situation where also the bispectrum can be analytically calculated. Here the estimated bispectrum is found to be in close agreement with the analytical prediction for the monopole of the redshift space bispectrum., 21 pages, 11 figures, Accepted for publication in JCAP

The matched filtering technique is an efficient method to detect H ii bubbles and absorption regions in radio interferometric observations of the redshifted 21-cm signal from the epoch of reionization and the Cosmic Dawn. Here, we present an implementation of this technique to the upcoming observations such as the SKA1-low for a blind search of absorption regions at the Cosmic Dawn. The pipeline explores four dimensional parameter space on the simulated mock visibilities using a MCMC algorithm. The framework is able to efficiently determine the positions and sizes of the absorption/H ii regions in the field of view.

The objective of this study was to decompose racial disparity in juvenile justice decision-making into a part explained by differing characteristics of racial groups, and an unexplained part often attributed to discrimination. Individual case-level data from Alabama and logistic regression were used to model detention, petition, and disposition decisions in the juvenile justice system. Decomposition of racial disparity between white and black juveniles using the nonlinear Blinder-Oaxaca methodology suggested that about a half to three fourths of the racial gaps in the three juvenile justice decision points were caused either by discrimination or unobserved predictors. Decomposition of racial disparity in juvenile justice can help devise effective public policy by quantifying the extent to which specific policies can reduce disproportionate minority contact.

Understanding the evolutionary history of our Universe is one of the major goals of modern cosmology. Precise measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation (CMBR) and accurate maps of the galaxies in the nearby universe have revolutionized our understanding of this history. Together they provide a somewhat detailed picture of the very early phase of the Universe and of its present state. However, our knowledge of how the universe has evolved between these two extreme ends is actually very limited.

The light-cone (LC) effect causes the mean as well as the statistical properties of the redshifted 21-cm signal $T_{\rm b}(\hat{\bf n},\nu)$ to change with frequency $\nu$ (or cosmic time). Consequently, the statistical homogeneity (ergodicity) of the signal along the line of sight (LoS) direction is broken. This is a severe problem particularly during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) when the mean neutral hydrogen fraction ($\bar{x}_{\rm HI}$) changes rapidly as the universe evolves. This will also pose complications for large bandwidth observations. These effects imply that the 3D power spectrum $P(k)$ fails to quantify the entire second-order statistics of the signal as it assumes the signal to be ergodic and periodic along the LoS. As a proper alternative to $P(k)$, we use the multi-frequency angular power spectrum (MAPS) ${\mathcal C}_{\ell}(\nu_1,\nu_2)$ which does not assume the signal to be ergodic and periodic along the LoS. Here, we study the prospects for measuring the EoR 21-cm MAPS using future observations with the upcoming SKA-Low. Ignoring any contribution from the foregrounds, we find that the EoR 21-cm MAPS can be measured at a confidence level $\ge 5\sigma$ at angular scales $\ell \sim 1300$ for total observation time $t_{\rm obs} \ge 128\,{\rm hrs}$ across $\sim 44\,{\rm MHz}$ observational bandwidth. We also quantitatively address the effects of foregrounds on MAPS detectability forecast by avoiding signal contained within the foreground wedge in $(k_\perp, k_\parallel)$ plane. These results are very relevant for the upcoming large bandwidth EoR experiments as previous predictions were all restricted to individually analyzing the signal over small frequency (or equivalently redshift) intervals., Comment: Published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (MNRAS). Available at https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/staa1026

We apply two methods to estimate the 21~cm bispectrum from data taken within the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR) project of the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA). Using data acquired with the Phase II compact array allows a direct bispectrum estimate to be undertaken on the multiple redundantly-spaced triangles of antenna tiles, as well as an estimate based on data gridded to the $uv$-plane. The direct and gridded bispectrum estimators are applied to 21 hours of high-band (167--197~MHz; $z$=6.2--7.5) data from the 2016 and 2017 observing seasons. Analytic predictions for the bispectrum bias and variance for point source foregrounds are derived. We compare the output of these approaches, the foreground contribution to the signal, and future prospects for measuring the bispectra with redundant and non-redundant arrays. We find that some triangle configurations yield bispectrum estimates that are consistent with the expected noise level after 10 hours, while equilateral configurations are strongly foreground-dominated. Careful choice of triangle configurations may be made to reduce foreground bias that hinders power spectrum estimators, and the 21~cm bispectrum may be accessible in less time than the 21~cm power spectrum for some wave modes, with detections in hundreds of hours., Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in PASA

The non-Gaussian nature of the epoch of reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal has a significant impact on the error variance of its power spectrum $P({\bf \textit{k}})$. We have used a large ensemble of semi-numerical simulations and an analytical model to estimate the effect of this non-Gaussianity on the entire error-covariance matrix ${\mathcal{C}}_{ij}$. Our analytical model shows that ${\mathcal{C}}_{ij}$ has contributions from two sources. One is the usual variance for a Gaussian random field which scales inversely of the number of modes that goes into the estimation of $P({\bf \textit{k}})$. The other is the trispectrum of the signal. Using the simulated 21-cm signal ensemble, an ensemble of the randomized signal and ensembles of Gaussian random ensembles we have quantified the effect of the trispectrum on the error variance ${\mathcal{C}}_{ij}$. We find that its relative contribution is comparable to or larger than that of the Gaussian term for the $k$ range $0.3 \leq k \leq 1.0 \,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, and can be even $\sim 200$ times larger at $k \sim 5\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. We also establish that the off-diagonal terms of ${\mathcal{C}}_{ij}$ have statistically significant non-zero values which arise purely from the trispectrum. This further signifies that the error in different $k$ modes are not independent. We find a strong correlation between the errors at large $k$ values ($\ge 0.5 \,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$), and a weak correlation between the smallest and largest $k$ values. There is also a small anti-correlation between the errors in the smallest and intermediate $k$ values. These results are relevant for the $k$ range that will be probed by the current and upcoming EoR 21-cm experiments., Comment: Published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (MNRAS)

The light-cone (LC) effect imprints the cosmological evolution of the redshifted 21-cm signal $T_{\rm b} ({\hat{\bf{n}}}, \nu)$ along the frequency axis which is the line of sight (LoS) direction of an observer. The effect is particularly pronounced during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) when the mean hydrogen neutral fraction ${\bar{x}_{\rm HI}}(\nu)$ falls rapidly as the universe evolves. The multi-frequency angular power spectrum (MAPS) ${{\mathcal C}_{\ell}}(\nu_1,\nu_2)$ quantifies the entire second-order statistics of $T_{\rm b} ({\hat{\bf{n}}}, \nu)$ considering both the systematic variation along $\nu$ due to the cosmological evolution and also the statistically homogeneous and isotropic fluctuations along all the three spatial directions encoded in ${\hat{\bf{n}}}$ and $\nu$. Here we propose a simple model where the systematic frequency $(\nu_1,\nu_2)$ dependence of ${{\mathcal C}_{\ell}}(\nu_1,\nu_2)$ arises entirely due to the evolution of ${\bar{x}_{\rm HI}}(\nu)$. This provides a new method to observationally determine the reionization history. Considering a LC simulation of the EoR 21-cm signal, we use the diagonal elements $\nu_1=\nu_2$ of ${{\mathcal C}_{\ell}}(\nu_1,\nu_2)$ to validate our model. We demonstrate that it is possible to recover the reionization history across the entire observational bandwidth provided we have the value ${\bar{x}_{\rm HI}}$ at a single frequency as an external input., Comment: Published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (MNRAS) Letters. Available at https://doi.org/10.1093/mnrasl/sly226

The epoch of reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal is expected to be highly non-Gaussian in nature and this non-Gaussianity is also expected to evolve with the progressing state of reionization. Therefore the signal will be correlated between different Fourier modes ($k$). The power spectrum will not be able capture this correlation in the signal. We use a higher-order estimator -- the bispectrum -- to quantify this evolving non-Gaussianity. We study the bispectrum using an ensemble of simulated 21-cm signal and with a large variety of $k$ triangles. We observe two competing sources driving the non-Gaussianity in the signal: fluctuations in the neutral fraction ($x_{\rm HI}$) field and fluctuations in the matter density field. We find that the non-Gaussian contribution from these two sources vary, depending on the stage of reionization and on which $k$ modes are being studied. We show that the sign of the bispectrum works as a unique marker to identify which among these two components is driving the non-Gaussianity. We propose that the sign change in the bispectrum, when plotted as a function of triangle configuration $\cos{\theta}$ and at a certain stage of the EoR can be used as a confirmative test for the detection of the 21-cm signal. We also propose a new consolidated way to visualize the signal evolution (with evolving $\overline{x}_{\rm HI}$ or redshift), through the trajectories of the signal in a power spectrum and equilateral bispectrum i.e. $P(k)-B(k, k, k)$ space., Comment: 18 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Replaced to match the accepted version

Linz-Donawitz (LD) slag is one of the major by-products generated in the iron and steel industry. Alternative uses for waste by-products in the iron and steel industry are required due to increasing production, less land for disposal and stringent environmental regulations. Three different synthetic soils (M1 = 30% slag + 70% compost, M2 = 50% slag + 50% compost, and M3 = 70% slag + 30% compost) prepared from LD slag and sewage sludge compost were subjected to continuous column leaching studies for two months. The aim of the leaching study was to understand the variation in pH trends during leaching, mobility of metals and nutrients. Results showed that the pH of M2 and M3 synthetic soil and steel slag leachates remained in alkaline pH ranges. The pH for M1 was circumneutral until the liquid to solid ratio (L/S) = 0.5 and thereafter reached above pH 10. pH generally decreased with increasing percentage of compost. LD slag is a heterogeneous material comprising of 35–40% CaO and 6–8% MgO. Previous studies also suggest that with ageing and in presence of water, steel slag may form new mineral phases. Readily soluble minerals may dissolve in water more quickly however, minerals which are entrapped within complex heterogeneous phase may dissolve slowly. The highly alkaline pH trend during this leaching study may be due to presence of Ca-CO3-OH type ion matrix in leachates. Therefore, when steel slag or synthetic soils are used as an artificial (top) soil, high pH leachates may have some negative ecological impacts.

In this paper we establish the accuracy and robustness of a fast estimator for the bispectrum - the "FFT bispectrum estimator". The implementation of the estimator presented here offers speed and simplicity benefits over a direct sampling approach. We also generalise the derivation so it may be easily be applied to any order polyspectra, such as the trispectrum, with the cost of only a handful of FFTs. All lower order statistics can also be calculated simultaneously for little extra cost. To test the estimator we make use of a non-linear density field, and for a more strongly non-Gaussian test case we use a toy-model of reionization in which ionized bubbles at a given redshift are all of equal size and are randomly distributed. Our tests find that the FFT estimator remains accurate over a wide range of k, and so should be extremely useful for analysis of 21-cm observations. The speed of the FFT bispectrum estimator makes it suitable for sampling applications, such as Bayesian inference. The algorithm we describe should prove valuable in the analysis of simulations and observations, and whilst we apply it within the field of cosmology, this estimator is useful in any field that deals with non-Gaussian data., 11 pages, 7 Figures. MNRAS vol. 472, issue 2, pp. 2436-2446

We present the first limits on the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) 21-cm HI power spectra, in the redshift range $z=7.9-10.6$, using the Low-Frequency Array (LOFAR) High-Band Antenna (HBA). In total 13\,h of data were used from observations centred on the North Celestial Pole (NCP). After subtraction of the sky model and the noise bias, we detect a non-zero $\Delta^2_{\rm I} = (56 \pm 13 {\rm mK})^2$ (1-$\sigma$) excess variance and a best 2-$\sigma$ upper limit of $\Delta^2_{\rm 21} < (79.6 {\rm mK})^2$ at $k=0.053$$h$cMpc$^{-1}$ in the range $z=$9.6-10.6. The excess variance decreases when optimizing the smoothness of the direction- and frequency-dependent gain calibration, and with increasing the completeness of the sky model. It is likely caused by (i) residual side-lobe noise on calibration baselines, (ii) leverage due to non-linear effects, (iii) noise and ionosphere-induced gain errors, or a combination thereof. Further analyses of the excess variance will be discussed in forthcoming publications., Comment: 17 pages, 8 figures, accepted by ApJ

We introduce a novel technique, called "granulometry", to characterize and recover the mean size and the size distribution of HII regions from 21-cm tomography. The technique is easy to implement, but places the previously not very well defined concept of morphology on a firm mathematical foundation. The size distribution of the cold spots in 21-cm tomography can be used as a direct tracer of the underlying probability distribution of HII region sizes. We explore the capability of the method using large-scale reionization simulations and mock observational data cubes while considering capabilities of SKA1-low and a future extension to SKA2. We show that the technique allows the recovery of the HII region size distribution with a moderate signal-to-noise ratio from wide-field imaging ($\rm SNR\lesssim3$), for which the statistical uncertainty is sample variance dominated. We address the observational requirements on the angular resolution, the field-of-view, and the thermal noise limit for a successful measurement. To achieve a full scientific return from 21-cm tomography and to exploit a synergy with 21-cm power spectra, we suggest an observing strategy using wide-field imaging (several tens of square degrees) by an interferometric mosaicking/multi-beam observation with additional intermediate baselines (~2-4 km)., 19 pages, 19 figures, the version accepted in MNRAS

We show that the orthogonal projection operator onto the range of the adjoint of a linear operator $T$ can be represented as $UT,$ where $U$ is an invertible linear operator. Using this representation we obtain a decomposition of a Normal random vector $Y$ as the sum of a linear transformation of $Y$ that is independent of $TY$ and an affine transformation of $TY$. We then use this decomposition to prove that the conditional distribution of a Normal random vector $Y$ given a linear transformation $\mathcal{T}Y$ is again a multivariate Normal distribution. This result is equivalent to the well-known result that given a $k$-dimensional component of a $n$-dimensional Normal random vector, where $k, Comment: 2/6/18: Updated the proof of Theorem 4 & added a corollary. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1612.01210

We present a detailed comparison of three different simulations of the epoch of reionization (EoR). The radiative transfer simulation (${\rm C}^2$-RAY) among them is our benchmark. Radiative transfer codes can produce realistic results, but are computationally expensive. We compare it with two semi-numerical techniques: one using the same halos as ${\rm C}^2$-RAY as its sources (Sem-Num), and one using a conditional Press-Schechter scheme (CPS+GS). These are vastly more computationally efficient than ${\rm C}^2$-RAY, but use more simplistic physical assumptions. We evaluate these simulations in terms of their ability to reproduce the history and morphology of reionization. We find that both Sem-Num and CPS+GS can produce an ionization history and morphology that is very close to ${\rm C}^2$-RAY, with Sem-Num performing slightly better compared to CPS+GS. We also study different redshift space observables of the 21-cm signal from EoR: the variance, power spectrum and its various angular multipole moments. We find that both semi-numerical models perform reasonably well in predicting these observables at length scales relevant for present and future experiments. However, Sem-Num performs slightly better than CPS+GS in producing the reionization history, which is necessary for interpreting the future observations., 20 pages, 14 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Replaced to match the accepted version

The 21-cm signal from the epoch of reionization is non-Gaussian. Current radio telescopes are focused on detecting the 21-cm power spectrum, but in the future the Square Kilometre Array is anticipated to provide a first measurement of the bispectrum. Previous studies have shown that the position-dependent power spectrum is a simple and efficient way to probe the squeezed-limit bispectrum. In this approach, the survey is divided into subvolumes and the correlation between the local power spectrum and the corresponding mean density of the subvolume is computed. This correlation is equivalent to an integral of the bispectrum in the squeezed limit, but is much simpler to implement than the usual bispectrum estimators. It also has a clear physical interpretation: it describes how the small-scale power spectrum of tracers such as galaxies and the 21-cm signal respond to a large-scale environment. Reionization naturally couples large and small scales as ionizing radiation produced by galactic sources can travel up to tens of Megaparsecs through the intergalactic medium during this process. Here we apply the position-dependent power spectrum approach to fluctuations in the 21-cm background from reionization. We show that this statistic has a distinctive evolution in time that can be understood with a simple analytic model. We also show that the statistic can easily distinguish between simple "inside-out" and "outside-in" models of reionization. The position-dependent power spectrum is thus a promising method to validate the reionization signal and to extract higher-order information on this process., Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures, accepted in JCAP

Theorem 2.2 of Majumdar (Sankhyā 67:670–673, 2005) obtained two conditions that are necessary and jointly sufficient for weak convergence in \( {\mathcal{M}}\left({H}\right)\). In this note we significantly relax the second condition while maintaining the joint sufficiency.

This paper examines the influence of state attributes on the destination choice of anglers who travel either within their own state of residence or to other states for recreational fishing. The values that anglers place on states' social, infrastructural and environmental characteristics are estimated using revealed preference data on US anglers who participated in freshwater fishing in 12 southeast states in 2006. Estimated mixed logit models suggest that anglers do not prefer freshwater fishing in states where toxic releases to surface water and air, crime rates and the extent of urbanization are high. Conversely, anglers prefer states with more sunshine and greater recreational and forest acreages. Male, urbanite and higher-income anglers place higher values on state attributes.

Studying the cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionization through the redshifted 21 cm line are among the major science goals of the SKA1. Their significance lies in the fact that they are closely related to the very first stars in the universe. Interpreting the upcoming data would require detailed modelling of the relevant physical processes. In this article, we focus on the theoretical models of reionization that have been worked out by various groups working in India with the upcoming SKA in mind. These models include purely analytical and semi-numerical calculations as well as fully numerical radiative transfer simulations. The predictions of the 21 cm signal from these models would be useful in constraining the properties of the early galaxies using the SKA data., To appear in Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy (JOAA) special issue on "Science with the SKA: an Indian perspective"

The observed 21-cm signal from the epoch of reionization will be distorted along the line-of-sight by the peculiar velocities of matter particles. These redshift-space distortions will affect the contrast in the signal and will also make it anisotropic. This anisotropy contains information about the cross-correlation between the matter density field and the neutral hydrogen field, and could thus potentially be used to extract information about the sources of reionization. In this paper, we study a collection of simulated reionization scenarios assuming different models for the sources of reionization. We show that the 21-cm anisotropy is best measured by the quadrupole moment of the power spectrum. We find that, unless the properties of the reionization sources are extreme in some way, the quadrupole moment evolves very predictably as a function of global neutral fraction. This predictability implies that redshift-space distortions are not a very sensitive tool for distinguishing between reionization sources. However, the quadrupole moment can be used as a model-independent probe for constraining the reionization history. We show that such measurements can be done to some extent by first-generation instruments such as LOFAR, while the SKA should be able to measure the reionization history using the quadrupole moment of the power spectrum to great accuracy., Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Replaced to match the accepted version

The line-of-sight direction in the redshifted 21-cm signal coming from the cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionization is quite unique in many ways compared to any other cosmological signal. Different unique effects, such as the evolution history of the signal, non-linear peculiar velocities of the matter etc. will imprint their signature along the line-of-sight axis of the observed signal. One of the major goals of the future SKA-LOW radio interferometer is to observe the cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionization through this 21-cm signal. It is thus important to understand how these various effects affect the signal for its actual detection and proper interpretation. For more than one and half decades, various groups in India have been actively trying to understand and quantify the different line-of-sight effects that are present in this signal through analytical models and simulations. In many ways the importance of this sub-field under 21-cm cosmology have been identified, highlighted and pushed forward by the Indian community. In this article, we briefly describe their contribution and implication of these effects in the context of the future surveys of the cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionization that will be conducted by the SKA-LOW.

Detection of individual luminous sources during the reionization epoch and cosmic dawn through their signatures in the HI 21-cm signal is one of the direct approaches to probe the epoch. Here, we summarize our previous works on this and present preliminary results on the prospects of detecting such sources using the SKA1-low experiment. We first discuss the expected HI 21-cm signal around luminous sources at different stages of reionization and cosmic dawn. We then introduce two visibility based estimators for detecting such signal: one based on the matched filtering technique and the other relies on simply combing the visibility signal from different baselines and frequency channels. We find that that the SKA1-low should be able to detect ionized bubbles of radius $R_b \gtrsim 10$ Mpc with $\sim 100$ hr of observations at redshift $z \sim 8$ provided that the mean outside neutral Hydrogen fraction $ x_{\rm HI} \gtrsim 0.5$. We also investigate the possibility of detecting HII regions around known bright QSOs such as around ULASJ1120+0641 discovered by Mortlock et al. 2011. We find that a $5 \sigma$ detection is possible with $600$ hr of SKA1-low observations if the QSO age and the outside $ x_{\rm HI} $ are at least $\sim 2 \times 10^7$ Myr and $\sim 0.2$ respectively. Finally, we investigate the possibility of detecting the very first X-ray and Ly-$\alpha$ sources during the cosmic dawn. We consider mini-QSOs like sources which emits in X-ray frequency band. We find that with a total $\sim 1000$ hr of observations, SKA1-low should be able to detect those sources individually with a $\sim 9 \sigma$ significance at redshift $z=15$. We summarize how the SNR changes with various parameters related to the source properties.

The EoR 21-cm signal is expected to become highly non-Gaussian as reionization progresses. This severely affects the error-covariance of the EoR 21-cm power spectrum which is important for predicting the prospects of a detection with ongoing and future experiments. Most earlier works have assumed that the EoR 21-cm signal is a Gaussian random field where (1) the error variance depends only on the power spectrum and the number of Fourier modes in the particular $k$ bin, and (2) the errors in the different $k$ bins are uncorrelated. Here we use an ensemble of simulated 21-cm maps to analyze the error-covariance at various stages of reionization. We find that even at the very early stages of reionization ($\bar{x}_{\rm HI} \sim 0.9 $) the error variance significantly exceeds the Gaussian predictions at small length-scales ($k > 0.5 \,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$) while they are consistent at larger scales. The errors in most $k$ bins (both large and small scales), are however found to be correlated. Considering the later stages ($\bar{x}_{\rm HI} = 0.15$), the error variance shows an excess in all $k$ bins within $k \ge 0.1 \, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, and it is around $200$ times larger than the Gaussian prediction at $k \sim 1 \, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. The errors in the different $k$ bins are all also highly correlated, barring the two smallest $k$ bins which are anti-correlated with the other bins. Our results imply that the predictions for different 21-cm experiments based on the Gaussian assumption underestimate the errors, and it is necessary to incorporate the non-Gaussianity for more realistic predictions., Published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (MNRAS). Available at "this URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stw2599"