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Accurate cost estimates are vital to sustaining Navy Expeditionary Combat Command (NECC) operational forces. Currently, NECC needs a method to assess the accuracy of future cost estimates that will not disrupt its existing cost estimation process during the POM cycle. Accuracy is the sole metric used in this study to analyze and assess the effectiveness of a cost estimate. This research uses statistical techniques to assess the cost estimate’s accuracy, including single variable linear regression, Monte Carlo simulation, and a proportional scale-down model. The sample of sustainment cost data spans from FY 2016 to 2021. The point estimates from the regression model revealed that the total aggregate cost decreases by just under $16.6 million in constant year 2018 dollars (CY18$) each fiscal year. I applied the point estimate and standard error to the Monte Carlo simulation to produce a normal probability distribution with a range of possible outcomes (i.e., probability of occurrence linked to each value within that range). For the FY2025 scenario simulation, the mean value representing the most likely estimate is $303,649,744 (CY18$), and the standard deviation is $7,767,962 (CY18$). The proportional scale factor model breaks down the aggregate estimate to a lower level of programmatic detail for additional analysis. Applying statistical techniques to the existing process will help ensure that operational forces receive sufficient resources to accomplish the mission., NPS Naval Research Program, Major, United States Marine Corps, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Special Operations Forces Personal Equipment Advanced Requirements (SPEAR) is the U.S. Special Operations Command’s program for outfitting Special Operations Forces with advanced clothing and equipment. However, a 2021 survey indicated that much SPEAR gear goes unused, and a majority of U.S. Navy sea, air, and land (SEAL) operators personally procure commercial gear to supplement their loadout. This study examines two of the ten functional areas of Naval Special Warfare’s (NSW) next-generation SPEAR loadout, the Load Carriage System and Body Armor Vest, to determine user adherence (gear utilization), the amount of gear SEALs personally procure, and whether the new SPEAR loadout is reducing SEALs’ out-of-pocket expenses. Quantitative extrapolations from an electronic fielding questionnaire revealed that while the new loadout has mostly favorable user adherence, it has a 58% projected cost-efficiency, which equates to $1.6 million in unused gear. Additionally, experienced SEALs spent close to $3,000 on personally procured gear, on average, in 2022 dollars. The new loadout will reduce out-of-pocket expenses for 34% of SEALs, showing recent program improvement, yet over two-thirds of SEALs still feel SPEAR does not meet operational requirements. Recommendations for modification to NSW’s acquisition strategy include transferring a portion of SPEAR sustainment funding to SEALs in the form of an advanced equipment allowance to minimize SEALs’ out-of-pocket expenses and reduce waste., Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis surveys the preferences and views of U.S. naval officers regarding different alcohol policies and what they believe would best promote responsible alcohol consumption among U.S. sailors. Using a mixed method of qualitative and quantitative approaches, I document the background of alcohol in the U.S. Navy in conjunction with identifying the preferences and views of U.S. naval officers at Naval Postgraduate School (NPS). The qualitative analysis stems from a literature review of alcohol misuse, culture, and history of alcohol policies in the U.S. Navy. Through a survey of 154 U.S. naval officers at NPS, the quantitative analysis reports the preferences and views regarding current alcohol policy on U.S. naval vessels from officers, who will rotate into increased leadership roles and potentially command of such vessels. Moreover, the survey identifies other factors to consider when incorporating an effective alcohol policy. Three alternatives considered to maintaining the status quo are: allow alcohol consumption onboard U.S. naval vessels while in port only, allow alcohol consumption onboard U.S. naval vessels while in port and underway, and revert to total alcohol prohibition. The primary finding is 81.81% of survey participants prefer an alcohol policy that would allow alcohol on U.S. naval vessels to a greater extent than presently. This finding and the remaining survey results may be beneficial to consider when conducting further policy evaluation and research., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The United States Marine Corps (USMC) is required by the Chief Financial Officers Act of 1990 to provide annual financial reports to stakeholders. For fiscal year 2021 and prior, independent auditors of these reports have produced a disclaimer of opinion with numerous material weaknesses and departures from standards in financial reporting and internal controls. Our thesis analyzed one course of action to improve Marine Corps auditability. Would better participation and utilization of the Staff Non-Commissioned Officer Degree Program (SNCODP), specifically the baccalaureate degree in accounting, improve the Marine Corps capability to achieve an unmodified audit opinion? Our methodology consisted of a task comparison, a capabilities comparison, and a cost benefit analysis (CBA). The task comparison reviewed the Marine Corps' requirements to be completed by technically competent personnel. The capabilities comparison reviewed attributes of each specialized personnel. The CBA analyzed which personnel type was the most cost effective. Our data was primarily sourced from GAO, Navy, and Marine Corps publications, as well as publicly accessible costing information. Results of our thesis show that the SNCODCP produces the most versatile individual for the job, but hiring a General Standard employee was a more cost-effective option to improve., Captain, United States Marine Corps, Captain, United States Marine Corps, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

In this thesis, we study how the Selective Retention Bonus (SRB) impacts the retention of talented First Term Alignment Plan (FTAP) Marines from 2015 to 2020. The Marine Corps needs data-driven analysis on how the SRB relates to talent management. We analyze how different bonus quantities affect the retention of quality Marines and how the SRB impacts the time it takes to fill military occupational specialty (MOS) boat spaces. We use data from the Total Force Data Warehouse to study the population of FTAP Marines eligible for reenlistment and data from the Total Force Retention System to study the population of FTAP Marines that reenlisted. We use regression analysis to study the impact of the SRB. We find for Marines who score in the top 10% of their primary military occupational specialty (PMOS) on the PFT and proficiency scores, every $10k that the Marine Corps offers them correlates to an 8.1 percentage point increase in the probability of reenlistment. We find that bonus eligible tier 1 Marines are associated with reenlisting 18 days earlier than bonus ineligible tier 1 Marines. Lastly, we find that the Marine Corps is 17.1 percentage points more likely to fill 95% of the boat spaces of a bonus eligible PMOS by December 31. We recommend that the Marine Corps store tier scores of Marines who do not reenlist and investigate adapting a menu of contracts approach to the SRB.

This project is relevant to military acquisition, U.S. Navy financial management, and Naval Surface Warfare. It examines the cost-effectiveness analysis of potential Navy Surface Ship Electronic Warfare (EW) and vertical launch missile systems (VLS). Our intent is that the research informs the Program Executive Office Information Warfare Systems (PEO/IWS) and OPNAV N96/N2N6 by illustrating the capabilities and costs of EW and missile systems. We examined the effectiveness of Navy systems against a myriad of threat missiles, using estimated percent kill (Pk) calculations that encompassed the underlying sensors consisting of command and control, communications, detection, engagement, and tracking. Our results indicate that the electronic warfare systems, specifically the SLQ-32 (v)7, is the most cost-effective system to deter threat missiles, because of the re-load cost associated with missile systems, specifically the SM-6, SM-2, and ESSM. While the SLQ-32 is the most cost-effective system, we understand the need for redundancy, and we cannot completely disregard defensive missile systems. It is our hope that this research will ultimately aid in strategic decision-making for long-term employment weapons load outs on various ship classes. With more money invested in electronic warfare defense systems, the load out on surface assets can theoretically shift to a more offensive mindset, while still maintaining defensive missiles for the applicable threat environment., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The U.S. federal deficit continues to grow yearly and is approximately $1.719 trillion for fiscal year (FY) 2022, further increasing the national debt to approximately $31.1 trillion. Our research examines possible cost-saving measures available within the Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH) program, specifically a tax on the BAH of the lower-ranking, non-dependent service members within military collocated couples. We utilized data from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) to define the population data for all military collocated couples for June 2022. Of the approximate $25.6 billion in BAH paid to service members in FY22, our estimates indicate approximately $1.25 billion is paid to the lower-ranking, non-dependent members of collocated military couples. Additionally, our estimates indicate that officers would pay a 15% higher amount in tax paid than enlisted. Our analysis suggests that potential cost savings of approximately $284.5 million annually can be achieved by instituting a tax on these members’ BAH allowances plus their base pay at a tax rate commensurate with the total of both. An alternative approach provides a cost savings of approximately $151.4 million annually attained by taxing only these service members’ BAH at a tax rate commensurate with the total of the BAH alone., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Junior Grade, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

In 2021, the Government Accountability Office reported the U.S. Navy’s fatigue management failure to Congress. Understanding the economic costs of inadequate sleep provides an avenue to achieving fatigue management goals. This study aims to determine the economic costs of impaired productivity due to insufficient sleep on U.S. Navy shipboard operations. Utilizing sleep duration data collected by the Naval Postgraduate School Crew Endurance Team and a RAND sleep study, we assessed working time lost in U.S. Navy shipboard operations. We discovered that Sailors sleeping fewer than 6 hours per day lost three underway days more per year and Sailors sleeping 6 to 7 hours per day lost two underway days more per year compared to the population of Sailors receiving sufficient sleep of 7 to 9 hours per day. Correlating the working time lost to military personnel costs, we determined that a fleet sleep average of 6.5 hours per day yields 137,997 working days lost at a cost of $31.9 million. The results indicate that insufficient sleep is not only a detriment to the mission but to the budget of the Department of the Navy. Further research is necessary to explore limitations that contribute to the cumulative financial burden of insufficient sleep., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Modernization of the Defense Acquisition Management and federal budget appropriation systems is necessary to ensure technological warfighting advantage, particularly in support of the Department of Defense’s software and cyber transition to a Development Operations (DEVOPS)/Development Security Operations (DEVSECOPS) environment. In appropriations, one modernization effort has been reform initiatives utilizing “colorless” appropriations for software-intensive defense acquisition programs. This thesis examines a sample of these pilot efforts through a combination of cost-effectiveness analysis and qualitative reflection to evaluate for efficiencies gained. While quantitative assessment identifies improved effectiveness at lower costs, sparsity of available data and program-specific external variables limit the statistical significance. However, qualitative insights in combination with commercial industry best practices may enhance the efficacy of this and other future reform efforts. These recommendations include additional selection criteria for pilot programs, additional metrics for quantitative and qualitative data collection, and further policy updates to enable a more effective transition from traditional appropriations. These conclusions derive from Defense Acquisition Management; federal budgeting and financial management; defense Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution processes; DEVOPS/DEVSECOPS practices; and Agile and Lean principles., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The Department of Defense’s (DOD) response to contingencies relies heavily on Operational Contracting Support (OCS) and its associated planning doctrine. This research study aims to validate the effectiveness of the current OCS planning doctrine by analyzing parts of the drawdown in Afghanistan and Operation Allies Welcome (OAW), a Joint Humanitarian Effort resulting from the drawdown. The study primarily focuses on whether OCS planning principles are utilized and effective in real-world contingency environments. It also explores the broader impact of adhering to or deviating from doctrine. Furthermore, the research investigates whether the existing guidance is too influenced by Middle Eastern conflict or if it provides a comprehensive framework for all contingencies. The project’s methodology involves an interview with a senior official of OAW, an analysis of lessons learned from OAW, and the author’s firsthand experience in Afghanistan and OAW. Given the contingency’s size, location, complexity, and duration, it serves as an ideal case for validating the effectiveness of the OCS planning doctrine. The author intends to extract significant insights from this contemporary and intricate mission to aid future contingency responses.

Military strategists and technologists have welcomed the rise of remotely piloted aircraft (RPAs) in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) roles because of their persistence and expendability which provide operational flexibility to commanders and decision makers. Furthermore, RPAs generally cost less to operate than manned systems. However, some small manned ISR aircraft have low operating costs, have been proven in operations around the world, and do not require any new spending to develop. While pursuing RPAs to gain the benefits identified, the Marine Corps may incur costs that reduce overall value to the service. In this study, I conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of two ISR systems to determine the alternative with the best value. The representative platforms analyzed are the unmanned RQ-21A and the manned MC-12W, to determine if the Marine Corps can realize greater value from a small manned aircraft than small RPAs for ISR missions. I find that the RQ-21A is a more effective platform based on the objective hierarchy established, with a measure of overall effectiveness (MOE) score of .721. However, it is more costly than the MC-12W on a cost per flight hour (CPFH) basis with a CPFH of $18,223. The MC-12W is a less effective platform based on the objective hierarchy established, with an MOE score of .497. However, it is less costly than the RQ-21A on a per flight hour basis with a CPFH of $6,079.

In this thesis, I propose the extension of the operation and maintenance (O&M) appropriation or period of availability from one year to two years, along with allowing a carryover of the expired funds to cover new starts and program increases during a continuing resolution. I present both the advantages and disadvantages that such policy change would bring and argue that the advantages far outweigh the concerns raised by Congress and those who oppose the two-year proposal. Extending O&M funding availability to two years would alleviate the spike of end-of-year obligations and lower the amount of expired unobligated funds, leading to fiscal and program stability. I also discuss the opponents’ main argument against such a policy shift; i.e., Congress’s perceived loss of control. This policy proposal, if implemented, would bring much-needed budgetary flexibility and procurement stability throughout the fleet and to the DOD in general.

The U.S. Navy’s surface fleet has been operating on two primary types of fuel for several decades, F-76 for ships and JP-5 for maritime aircraft. Since the implementation of these two fuels, multiple research projects have been conducted to recommend a Single Fuel Concept (SFC), but the Navy has not changed its fuel concept. In today's environment, the Navy needs solutions to cut costs and simplify the supply chain in an effort to focus on the Great Power Competition (GPC) while being mindful of defense budget constraints. Over the past several years, the JP-5 and F-76 price differential has decreased significantly, which provides an opportunity to implement an SFC based on cost benefits. This paper conducts regression analyses on both types of fuel and predicts consumption trends for the future based on the large fleet expansion set forth by the 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan. Cost and standard pricing metrics are used to show the possible cost savings by using JP-5 as a single fuel across the fleet. Implementation of an SFC will take time, especially with a growing fleet, so a phased rollout plan was developed to recommend timeframes for introduction of the SFC while mitigating risk to the fleet. This thesis recommends immediate implementation of the SFC in a phased rollout in order to cut costs, simplify the supply chain, and provide a long-term solution to a growing logistics problem., Monterey, CA, 93943, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

NPS NRP Technical Report, Reporting and clerical functions at an NSW Echelon IV commands are ripe for digitization, automation and optimization. A significant number of manhours are used to populate multiple databases with the same information. Given the budgetary constraints and the push towards a more efficient and effective Navy, it is imperative to reduce the number of non-value-added hours spent on administrative tasks. Given the two-year turnover cycle there are efficiencies that are learned and lost. Long-term efficiencies could be gained from greater automation through the use of simple software, some of which are already available in the Microsoft office environment. Some data could provide long term benefit if captured in a more persistent manner. Manhours could be reduced by optimizing data input requirements and automating cross population of data as well as report generation., Naval Special Warfare Command (NAVSPECWARCOM), N9 - Warfare Systems, This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp, Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This project is relevant to military acquisition, U.S. Navy financial management, and Naval Surface Warfare. It examines the cost-effectiveness analysis of potential Navy Surface Ship Electronic Warfare (EW) and vertical launch missile systems (VLS). Our intent is that the research informs the Program Executive Office Information Warfare Systems (PEO/IWS) and OPNAV N96/N2N6 by illustrating the capabilities and costs of EW and missile systems. We examined the effectiveness of Navy systems against a myriad of threat missiles, using estimated percent kill (Pk) calculations that encompassed the underlying sensors consisting of command and control, communications, detection, engagement, and tracking. Our results indicate that the electronic warfare systems, specifically the SLQ-32 (v)7, is the most cost-effective system to deter threat missiles, because of the re-load cost associated with missile systems, specifically the SM-6, SM-2, and ESSM. While the SLQ-32 is the most cost-effective system, we understand the need for redundancy, and we cannot completely disregard defensive missile systems. It is our hope that this research will ultimately aid in strategic decision-making for long-term employment weapons load outs on various ship classes. With more money invested in electronic warfare defense systems, the load out on surface assets can theoretically shift to a more offensive mindset, while still maintaining defensive missiles for the applicable threat environment.

The United States Marine Corps (USMC) is required by the Chief Financial Officers Act of 1990 to provide annual financial reports to stakeholders. For fiscal year 2021 and prior, independent auditors of these reports have produced a disclaimer of opinion with numerous material weaknesses and departures from standards in financial reporting and internal controls. Our thesis analyzed one course of action to improve Marine Corps auditability. Would better participation and utilization of the Staff Non-Commissioned Officer Degree Program (SNCODP), specifically the baccalaureate degree in accounting, improve the Marine Corps capability to achieve an unmodified audit opinion? Our methodology consisted of a task comparison, a capabilities comparison, and a cost benefit analysis (CBA). The task comparison reviewed the Marine Corps' requirements to be completed by technically competent personnel. The capabilities comparison reviewed attributes of each specialized personnel. The CBA analyzed which personnel type was the most cost effective. Our data was primarily sourced from GAO, Navy, and Marine Corps publications, as well as publicly accessible costing information. Results of our thesis show that the SNCODCP produces the most versatile individual for the job, but hiring a General Standard employee was a more cost-effective option to improve.

Over $1.2 million remains unpaid in United States Marine Corps canceled account payments due to a failure to properly closeout over-aged contracts used for the procurement of goods and services. The authority of government agencies to make further expenditures and payments against these contracts cancels at the end of the appropriation’s five-year period of availability. Pursuant to 31 U.S. Code § 1553, current year funds must then be utilized to pay those closed account invoices in addition to any interest accrued over time. This presents an issue within constrained budgets, already insufficient in meeting Force Design initiatives. While an effort has been made by Headquarters Marine Corps (HQMC), Programs and Resources (P&R) to streamline the reconciliation and payment of these invoices, both internal and external factors continue to undermine the Marine Corps’ funds execution credibility. My research examined findings from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and data from HQMC, P&R and found that labor shortfalls within the Defense Contract Audit Agency (DCAA) along with internal visibility issues impede the closeout of canceled account payments. To address this impact, the implementation of a tiger team within DCAA is recommended. Additionally, the promulgation of official payment and policy guidance should be provided to applicable commands, including Marine Corps Systems Command, which accounts for nearly half of all Marine Corps canceled account payments., Captain, United States Marine Corps, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This research examined the effect of U.S. Navy Special Warfare Sea, Air, and Land (SEAL) combat deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan on casualties and combat-specific compensation. Data was collected from restricted SEAL personnel records obtained from the Defense Manpower Data Center and Social Security Administration to identify and profile all U.S. active duty enlisted Navy Special Warfare operators having served in Iraq or Afghanistan from 2007–2012. During those years, SEAL operators sustained a fatality rate in Iraq and Afghanistan that was nearly 9 times greater than that of the overall U.S. military. Additionally, the SEAL operators who deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan from 2007–2012 had a total likelihood of death of 800 per 100,000—250 times that of the national workplace average in 2012. Furthermore, deployed SEAL operators to Iraq or Afghanistan from 2007–2012 experienced an increased chance of death of 530 per 100,000 compared to the SEAL operators remaining stateside. This level of additional risk is 11 times greater than the additional risk all U.S. military service members sustained while deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan from 2001–2012. Finally, this thesis uses the incremental risk incurred by SEAL operators deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan to estimate an appropriate ex ante compensation level of $14,442 per month in comparison to the current level of combat pay equal to $225 per month for Imminent Danger Pay/Hostile Fire Pay., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Military family housing programs are in crisis, the product of a policy-strategy mismatch resulting from competing interests among the United States Congress, Department of Defense, private real-estate developers, and the military members and families who rely on military housing. Through a policy-centered literature review, survey instrument, and analysis, this thesis investigates the mismatch and its impacts on military member and family health and readiness. Responses to this study’s survey and research sample suggest that few differences exist between respondents of military family housing and residents of local civilian community housing, with the most significant supported finding being that military housing respondents’ air-filtration maintenance occurs less often than that of local community housing. The overall findings suggest that the survey instrument, with minor improvements, could be used to acquire accurate and actionable data related to occupant health, well-being, and readiness, with the intrinsic benefit of serving as a rubric to gauge achievement of current housing and readiness policies. Succinctly put, the study’s survey instrument could easily be used by housing tenants, providers, and support staff as a near-definitive physical inspection diagnostic tool to identify physically observable indicators and building assemblage characteristics commonly observed, known, and associated with unsafe and unhealthy housing conditions., http://archive.org/details/aplanforactionho1094567106, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The current goal for the United States Navy is to achieve a 355-ship fleet by 2034 and 500 ships by 2045, according to the March 2020 Report to Congress on the Annual Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for Fiscal Year 2020. To achieve this goal, ship service lives will need to be extended and shipbuilding will need to occur. Given the current budgetary constraint, this project explores the cost effectiveness between four approaches to vessel construction: 1) U.S. naval designs built at U.S. yards, 2) commercial and foreign designs built at U.S. yards, 3) foreign designs built at partner foreign yards, and 4) commercial U.S. designs built at foreign yards. The cost effectiveness analysis took into account the need to preserve the U.S. naval industrial base as well as economic benefits and other advantages and disadvantages of U.S. shipbuilding as opposed to foreign shipbuilding for various design types. Based on the Constellation Class Frigate design, analysis indicates that the United States produces warships at a greater cost than its fellow European NATO member states. The United States is also less productive and maintains a lower capacity to produce warships. This analysis provides reasonable evidence to shift production of warships overseas, but it must be done in a balanced way that maximizes the cost-savings and allows the United States to continue to lead the way in next-generation technology., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The U.S. Navy’s surface fleet has been operating on two primary types of fuel for several decades, F-76 for ships and JP-5 for maritime aircraft. Since the implementation of these two fuels, multiple research projects have been conducted to recommend a Single Fuel Concept (SFC), but the Navy has not changed its fuel concept. In today's environment, the Navy needs solutions to cut costs and simplify the supply chain in an effort to focus on the Great Power Competition (GPC) while being mindful of defense budget constraints. Over the past several years, the JP-5 and F-76 price differential has decreased significantly, which provides an opportunity to implement an SFC based on cost benefits. This paper conducts regression analyses on both types of fuel and predicts consumption trends for the future based on the large fleet expansion set forth by the 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan. Cost and standard pricing metrics are used to show the possible cost savings by using JP-5 as a single fuel across the fleet. Implementation of an SFC will take time, especially with a growing fleet, so a phased rollout plan was developed to recommend timeframes for introduction of the SFC while mitigating risk to the fleet. This thesis recommends immediate implementation of the SFC in a phased rollout in order to cut costs, simplify the supply chain, and provide a long-term solution to a growing logistics problem.

Fuel distribution and its availability is key to maintain force posture during all phases of a conflict. Given the great power competition (GPC) increasing between the U.S., China, and Russia, and a shift to distributed maritime operations, it is important to assess the cost benefit of changing the fuel distribution to a single fuel type. The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) proposes to conduct a cost benefit analysis (CBA) of switching entirely or partially to JP-5 fuel as opposed to the current multiple fuel types used on ships aircrafts and vehicles. Specifically, this research addresses these main questions: If the Navy adopted a policy allowing a 50% JP-5 and 50% F-76 mixture to be issued to surface vessels in lieu of F-76, what would be the cost benefit? Would this policy improve historical turnover rates of the Department of Defense's JP-5 inventory? What infrastructure investments are necessary to adopt a single-type Naval fuel? We use past list purchase cost and standard sales prices for JP-5 and F-76 as our primary data sources to calculate potential savings from shifting to the SFC. Regression analysis is used to calculate the estimated purchase costs and sales costs for fuel under the current two-fuel concept. The predicted consumption figures for a single fuel concept (SFC) were used to predict the total fuel cost of JP-5 for future years as a single fuel in the fleet. We find significant cost savings by switching to a single fuel concept instead of a fuel policy mixture of using 50% JP-5 and 50% F-76. If the purchase and sales prices of JP-5 remain the same upon implementation of the SFC, there is potential for substantial savings for the government.

Over $1.2 million remains unpaid in United States Marine Corps canceled account payments due to a failure to properly closeout over-aged contracts used for the procurement of goods and services. The authority of government agencies to make further expenditures and payments against these contracts cancels at the end of the appropriation’s five-year period of availability. Pursuant to 31 U.S. Code § 1553, current year funds must then be utilized to pay those closed account invoices in addition to any interest accrued over time. This presents an issue within constrained budgets, already insufficient in meeting Force Design initiatives. While an effort has been made by Headquarters Marine Corps (HQMC), Programs and Resources (P&R) to streamline the reconciliation and payment of these invoices, both internal and external factors continue to undermine the Marine Corps’ funds execution credibility. My research examined findings from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and data from HQMC, P&R and found that labor shortfalls within the Defense Contract Audit Agency (DCAA) along with internal visibility issues impede the closeout of canceled account payments. To address this impact, the implementation of a tiger team within DCAA is recommended. Additionally, the promulgation of official payment and policy guidance should be provided to applicable commands, including Marine Corps Systems Command, which accounts for nearly half of all Marine Corps canceled account payments.

This research addresses the decreasing worth of the Servicemembers’ Group Life Insurance (SGLI) payout based on the year a servicemember dies. The SGLI maximum has stagnated at $400,000 for over 16 years and nearly every other servicemember entitlement or benefit has increased in this timeframe. Using four principal steps, this research first determines what the SGLI maximum should be using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and compounding inflation rates. Second, it conducts trend analysis to determine statistically significant predictors of servicemember death trends and forecasts servicemember deaths, end strengths, and inflation rates for ex post analysis. Third, it determines the feasibility of the proposed increases using historical payout-to-contribution ratios to determine sustainable contribution rates for monthly premiums. Fourth, it discusses alternatives to still provide benefit to servicemembers and beneficiaries, regardless of policy change. The ultimate recommendation is to increase the SGLI maximum to $525,000 in 2021, then continue to increase at 5-year intervals to correct for inflation, ultimately increasing to $605,000 in 2041 at which point it can be reassessed or have the interval increases continue. With a 95 percent confidence interval, the models predicted between 757 and 2,596 annual servicemember deaths; total service end strengths between 798,529 and 2,300,810; and inflation rates between 0.44 and 5.56 percent until 2041., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Search and rescue (SAR) is a key component in maintaining the necessary safety coverage of flights at Naval Air Stations (NAS) across the country. The United States Navy (USN) currently employs the MH-60S multi-mission helicopter at all six of their SAR locations. Due to projected inventory shortfalls in the future and increasing demand on this aircraft to support other operations, we analyze alternatives to provide the same SAR capability through other means. In this thesis, we conduct an in-depth cost-benefit analysis (CBA) on the search and rescue stations located in Fallon, NV, and Patuxent River, MD. Our analysis includes all of the costs associated with operating a SAR unit at each of these locations to include aircraft, personnel, maintenance, and fuel. We examine whether outsourcing components of SAR is more efficient to deliver the required, current, and future SAR capability at these specific locations. In our analysis, we find a potential cost savings of $9.8 million over five years by using an all civilian and contractor option. Therefore, our recommendation is to use an all civilian and contractor SAR service to reduce strain on the MH-60 and reduce costs for the Department of Defense (DoD)., DON, N9 - WARFARE SYSTEMS, http://archive.org/details/acostbenefitanal1094564095, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

MBA Professional Project, With over 39,000 firearm-related deaths per year in the United States, few topics are more controversial than civilian gun ownership and gun policies. This research provides analyses of the effects of gun-related laws on violent crime in the United States. Gun-related policies and violent crime analyses were conducted to compare differences in the 1994–2004 Federal Assault Weapons Ban and current state assault weapon bans, unrestricted-carry, right-to-carry laws, and the violent crime rate. Data were gathered from the Federal Bureau of Investigation to identify the differences in violent crime across all states and Washington, D.C., from 1970–2017. Data were also collected from numerous other government agencies to establish a body of independent variables to conduct multiple linear regression analyses. Based on the results of multiple linear regression models, we concluded that there is a statistically significant relationship between gun laws and the violent crime rate. Our model indicates a violent crime rate decrease of 93.14 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants with the implementation of assault weapon bans. Also, our model shows a murder rate decrease of 1.53 and 0.55 murders per 100,000 inhabitants with the adoption of unrestricted and right-to-carry laws., http://archive.org/details/effectsofgunpoli1094564011, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

This research examined the effect of U.S. Navy Special Warfare Sea, Air, and Land (SEAL) combat deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan on casualties and combat-specific compensation. Data was collected from restricted SEAL personnel records obtained from the Defense Manpower Data Center and Social Security Administration to identify and profile all U.S. active duty enlisted Navy Special Warfare operators having served in Iraq or Afghanistan from 2007–2012. During those years, SEAL operators sustained a fatality rate in Iraq and Afghanistan that was nearly 9 times greater than that of the overall U.S. military. Additionally, the SEAL operators who deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan from 2007–2012 had a total likelihood of death of 800 per 100,000—250 times that of the national workplace average in 2012. Furthermore, deployed SEAL operators to Iraq or Afghanistan from 2007–2012 experienced an increased chance of death of 530 per 100,000 compared to the SEAL operators remaining stateside. This level of additional risk is 11 times greater than the additional risk all U.S. military service members sustained while deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan from 2001–2012. Finally, this thesis uses the incremental risk incurred by SEAL operators deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan to estimate an appropriate ex ante compensation level of $14,442 per month in comparison to the current level of combat pay equal to $225 per month for Imminent Danger Pay/Hostile Fire Pay.

The National Defense Strategy has directed the Department of Defense to reform its business processes. The Department of the Navy has reformed its funding model within Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) and is in the process of changing the funding model for Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC). NAVSEA converted naval shipyards from a working capital funding model to a mission funding model during fiscal years 1998 through 2007, while NAVFAC will complete its transition in fiscal year 2020. This research analyzes the complexities of the working capital funding model and mission funding model as they relate to the NAVSEA and NAVFAC transitions. The analysis illustrates the advantages and disadvantages of the transition to determine whether Marine Corps Logistics Command should follow suit and transition its Depot Maintenance Activity Group to a mission funding model., Programs And Resources, HQMC, http://archive.org/details/thefeasibilityof1094564079, Major, United States Marine Corps, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

MBA Professional Project, In this project, we examine the potential net value to service members using the Blended Retirement System’s (BRS) lump-sum option to buy a home. The lump-sum option is a highly controversial element of the new BRS. Due to the relatively high discount rate used to determine the value of a retiree’s lump-sum payment, most financial analysts warn against electing the lump-sum option because doing so significantly decreases the net value of one’s retirement benefits over time. While that statement is usually true, the value of the lump-sum option to an individual service member depends on what they do with the money once they elect the lump-sum option. There are no prior studies that compare the normal annuity with potential outcomes of using the lump-sum, presumably because of the immense number of variables and unknowns inherent in attempting to do so. In this light, this project builds a decision-supporting financial model that can be used by service members to compare the value of a normal annuity with the value of using the lump-sum option to purchase a home. The model built here can be informative to service members as they approach retirement and have to decide for themselves whether the lump-sum is the more enticing retention tool., http://archive.org/details/beyondfacevaluea1094564007, Captain, United States Marine Corps, Captain, United States Marine Corps

The objective for this thesis project is to attempt to identify why 688 class submarine Docking Selected Restricted Availabilities (DSRAs) at Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard (PHNSY) are growing in man-days every year. The intent is to find an objective and realistic means for process improvement for submarine maintenance. This research relies on publicly available financial data gathered from the Navy's Office of Budget (FMB) as well as the Navy's Visibility and Management of Operating and Support Costs (VAMOSC) management and information database. The research is exploratory and seeks to identify similar trends in both availability man-days and financial costs. The research attempts to identify areas that could be driving maintenance growth as well as calls for an increase in data fidelity for future availabilities., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

This paper began as an update to existing research completed in June 2007 that had provided baseline knowledge on the magnitude and frequency of reprogramming within the Department of Defense (DoD). The majority of in-depth analysis covered FY 2007 through FY 2018, producing findings similar to the previous study. The effects of DoD policy changes, military operations, and external forces impacting DoD budgeting and reprogramming from FY 2007 through FY 2018 were examined. After a comparative analysis of DoD appropriation categories, actions, and dollar amounts, and noting which services were more involved, it was surmised that the gradual decline in reprogramming dollars, requests, and actions, and the decrease in the ratio of reprogramming dollars to the entire DoD budget were most likely a result of the primarily land-based contingency operations of the time period (FY 2002 through FY 2014), rather than specific policies, operations, or external events. A comparative analysis of the pre-9/11 (FY 1999 through FY 2001) and post-conflict (FY 2015 through FY 2018) time periods showed reprogramming dollars have declined as a percentage of the DoD budget. Insight into Navy processing time for reprogramming requests revealed lengthy processing for prior approval (PA) requests, which may be causing delays in reprogramming submissions from the services, delaying DoD responsiveness., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The current goal for the United States Navy is to achieve a 355-ship fleet by 2034 and 500 ships by 2045, according to the March 2020 Report to Congress on the Annual Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for Fiscal Year 2020. To achieve this goal, ship service lives will need to be extended and shipbuilding will need to occur. Given the current budgetary constraint, this project explores the cost effectiveness between four approaches to vessel construction: 1) U.S. naval designs built at U.S. yards, 2) commercial and foreign designs built at U.S. yards, 3) foreign designs built at partner foreign yards, and 4) commercial U.S. designs built at foreign yards. The cost effectiveness analysis took into account the need to preserve the U.S. naval industrial base as well as economic benefits and other advantages and disadvantages of U.S. shipbuilding as opposed to foreign shipbuilding for various design types. Based on the Constellation Class Frigate design, analysis indicates that the United States produces warships at a greater cost than its fellow European NATO member states. The United States is also less productive and maintains a lower capacity to produce warships. This analysis provides reasonable evidence to shift production of warships overseas, but it must be done in a balanced way that maximizes the cost-savings and allows the United States to continue to lead the way in next-generation technology.

This paper estimates and monetizes the impact of a policy change in the Brazilian Navy’s uniform supply chain. This policy change includes a revision to part of its process flowchart and the creation of a new design for the uniform distribution and selling processes (e-marketplace), by which authorized companies would be able to sell uniforms directly to military personnel. Using a cost-benefit analysis as a systematic quantitative method of assessing the alternative policy and comparing it to the status quo, this thesis projects that the positive impacts are significantly higher than the negative impacts. Even with some intangible aspects to consider, the net benefits are approximately R$73 million in the next five years, which is the project’s time frame. Overall, the analysis suggests that the Brazilian Navy should implement the new policy because it has substantial economic benefits.

MBA Professional Project, Due to excessive purchase and maintenance costs of naval dress uniforms, our team utilized a cost-benefit analysis approach to analyze each component of the four dress uniforms to identify cost savings. We examined the dress uniform history, implementation, and the prescribed manner of wear to identify components that could be eliminated, changed, modified or cross utilized. We created a survey and received 185 complete responses from Naval Postgraduate School naval officers. More than 45% of respondents spent over $2,000 on dress uniforms in their careers, with the average years of service equating to 7.58 years. Officers receive an inadequate initial clothing allowance that only covers an average of 73% of the mandated uniform costs. Our team identified two courses of action that result in cost savings. Replacing embroidered rank and service designator with hard shoulder boards results in an average cost savings of $112.00 per uniform and provides a single rank and service designator device that can be cross utilized with multiple uniforms. At retirement, we estimate total cost savings of $873.00 for males and $1,160.67 for females. Eliminating the dinner dress white jacket results in an immediate cost savings of $211.58 for males and $331.40 for females. We recommend these cost savings be considered for adoption by the Navy’s Uniforms Matters Office and that the special initial clothing monetary allowance be increased to cover mandated uniform purchases at commissioning., http://archive.org/details/identifycostsavi1094564075, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

MBA Professional Project, Marine Corps unrestricted officers are required to follow a pre-determined career roadmap that makes them more competitive for promotion and O-5-level command. The purpose of this MBA project was to research the post–entry-level education system for unrestricted officers. The project aimed to determine if a more focused career path is both attainable and beneficial to the Marine Corps and what this model would look like. The research utilized unrestricted ground supply officers as the test subjects. The sample population was composed of officers O-2 through O-6. Additionally, this project undertook a multi-step approach with specific emphasis on the following data to obtain a decision point: current educational career progression system, survey analysis, and promotion data for colonels with ground supply officer background. This project’s survey identified that 62% of the ground supply officer would choose to become a domain expert rather than follow the current command career path, while the same sample indicated in a Likert scale the need for post–entry-level education. The results indicate that some communities in the Marine Corps already follow a domain expert career path similar to the one proposed. This project recommends that each occupational community in the Marine Corps look at the proposed career path model and shape it to fit the needs of domain expertise., Marine Corps University, http://archive.org/details/marinecorpsoffic1094561340, Captain, United States Marine Corps, Captain, United States Marine Corps, Captain, United States Marine Corps

MBA Professional Project, This thesis investigates the investments by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and whether they may be construed as a national security threat to the United States. China has lauded its Made in China (MIC) 2025 plan with an emphasis on becoming the world’s superpower. By its entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), and subsequent Most Favored Nation (MFN) status granted by the United States, China has amassed a great deal of wealth, power, and influence around the globe. Through our research we reviewed articles, books, and papers that underscore China’s hegemonic plans through acquisitions to support our argument. In the face of China’s incursions into economic areas once dominated by the United States, we conclude that China has been successful thus far by its pursuit of strategic economic and infrastructure assets. As America continues to acquiesce, China will supersede the U.S. not only economically but militarily. We provide recommendations that will have immediate impacts and may help to retain America’s sovereignty as an autonomous nation., http://archive.org/details/afieldgraderevie1094561379, Major, United States Army

Search and rescue (SAR) is a key component in maintaining the necessary safety coverage of flights at Naval Air Stations (NAS) across the country. The United States Navy (USN) currently employs the MH-60S multi-mission helicopter at all six of their SAR locations. Due to projected inventory shortfalls in the future and increasing demand on this aircraft to support other operations, we analyze alternatives to provide the same SAR capability through other means. In this thesis, we conduct an in-depth cost-benefit analysis (CBA) on the search and rescue stations located in Fallon, NV, and Patuxent River, MD. Our analysis includes all of the costs associated with operating a SAR unit at each of these locations to include aircraft, personnel, maintenance, and fuel. We examine whether outsourcing components of SAR is more efficient to deliver the required, current, and future SAR capability at these specific locations. In our analysis, we find a potential cost savings of $9.8 million over five years by using an all civilian and contractor option. Therefore, our recommendation is to use an all civilian and contractor SAR service to reduce strain on the MH-60 and reduce costs for the Department of Defense (DoD).

The Defense Travel System (DTS) was established with the intent of streamlining the Department of Defense’s (DoD) travel claims and reimbursement process for users. The DTS has fallen short of expectations, far exceeds budgetary estimates, and perpetuates a culture of rigid rules and cumbersome administrative processes that burden the warfighter. The research presented here outlines the background and current process of the DTS, and examines leading process improvement techniques including Lean Six Sigma and the Theory of Constraints. This thesis theorizes that a paradigm shift in the DoD’s culture to a focus on human integration and process improvement will result in decreased costs, increased savings, and improved user satisfaction. In an effort to address the research question, "How can we reduce the administrative burden of the DTS on the warfighter?" this research concludes that the removal of the administrative voucher approval requirement coupled with an online chat capability will significantly enhance the overall efficiency of the system., http://archive.org/details/reducingthewaste1094561322, Captain, United States Marine Corps, Captain, United States Marine Corps, Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

MBA Professional Project, Reserve P-3 squadrons are directed to maintain a complement of six aircraft in their inventory. This number was determined through the application of a concept known as the crew seat ratio (CSR). While implementation of the CSR provides an accurate means of determining what is required operationally, further application results in excessive aircraft assignments, stressing maintenance capacities. The CSR assumes all aircrew will attain scheduled proficiency and readiness requirements. However, only deploying aircrew are expected to pursue readiness requirements throughout the FRTP. Therefore, applying a consistent ratio to all aircrew results in assigning more aircraft than what is required. The assignment of six aircraft can be burdensome, as reserve maintenance departments are at a disadvantage and not adequately staffed to support that many aircraft. This thesis performs multiple analyses in optimization modeling to determine the minimum ("best-fit") number of aircraft assignments for day-to-day operations while maintaining the requisite support for the active duty component. It accounts for constraints resulting from individual training and proficiency requirements, aircrew readiness and qualification requirements, and maintenance practices and capabilities. This thesis examines the development and application of The Orion Model (TOM), and demonstrates feasibility with an optimal solution of four aircraft assigned per squadron., http://archive.org/details/allocatingaircra1094561220, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

MBA Professional Project, This research used afloat uniforms of the United States Navy to explain the costs and benefits of implementing the Navy 2-Piece (PC) flame-resistant uniform. This study examined the history and characteristics of Navy afloat uniforms. It analyzed benefits and costs of implementing the new flame-resistant 2-PC uniform as an additional at sea uniform along with the current improved flame-resistant variant (IFRV) coveralls. The research concluded that even though course of action (COA) 3 (Status Quo) produces the lowest cost, the improved flame-resistant coverall does not provide the versatility and capability that the 2-PC uniform offers sailors to operate in all climates, environments, and workspaces on a daily basis. In comparison to the flame-resistant coverall, the 2-PC has no limitations and delivers the advantages of being deckplate-driven, improving the quality of life and work, satisfying all communities, and offering a better fit and more comfort. COA 2 has a net benefit of -$85,174,785.00, which is not a viable choice as it does not deliver any benefits. Our study has concluded that COA 1 would be the best option, because it will produce a net benefit of $20,637,638.00 while providing numerous non-monetized benefits to our sailors., http://archive.org/details/costbenefitanaly1094561228, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

The Future Fleet Architecture team within OPNAV N9I is starting the creation of a fleet decision aid called the Architecture Integration Decision Aid (ArnDT). While containing various functional layers, this study will serve as a focused effort to make a recommendation for how to allocate resources in the development of the cost model to be utilized. Having researched various cost types, the best choice of model will be based on Total Ownership Cost framework. This study shall provide background on cost estimation, the DoD Acquisition System, and the mission of OPNAV N9I. Having established a foundation of applicability, a qualitative look at Total Ownership Cost will be conducted in order to identify the broad aspects of costs that should be addressed within such a model. An exploratory case study demonstrating the supporting systems and ArnDT capabilities will be presented to highlight what a working total ownership cost model will provide to a completed ArnDT. Lastly, a discussion of applications shall lead to a quantitative recommendation for where resources should be invested to bring this cutting-edge capability from an idea to a reality., http://archive.org/details/totalownershipco1094561376, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

In this thesis, we examine whether the Navy should maintain its current scope of search and rescue (SAR) resource employment, or consider alternative ways to conduct SAR missions. Station SAR services are critical enablers to the generation of naval aviation force readiness; however, use of a multi-mission combat helicopter may not be the most economical method to deliver those services, particularly when balanced with an increasing fleet demand. We analyze existing fleet inventory, personnel, and operational demand data at naval air stations at Key West, FL, and Whidbey Island, WA, in a cost-benefit analysis of alternate ways to conduct SAR. We consider the distinct requirements for Station SAR services at each of the two naval air stations included in our study, based upon platforms supported, range, environmental factors, operating parameters, and local policies.

This thesis provides an analysis of the Servicemembers' Group Life Insurance (SGLI) program to determine the best value for our servicemembers and their families. Our research examined the history and the implementation of the SGLI program and compared the program against the life insurance industry’s recommendations for adequate life insurance coverage. As a result of our analysis of the SGLI program, we determined that up to 478,894 servicemembers, or 37% of active duty on-hand strength, have insufficient life insurance coverage through the SGLI program. Our team has recommended three courses of action to tailor a servicemember’s life insurance coverage to their needs and provide more value to the servicemember. The first course of action is to adjust for inflation, raising the current maximum coverage of $400,000 to $550,000, rounding up from $522,521.38 to the nearest increment of $50,000. The second course of action is to allow servicemembers to obtain maximum coverage equal to five times their annual salaries, mirroring the Federal Employees Group Life Insurance (FEGLI) program. The third course of action is to allow servicemembers to obtain maximum coverage equal to ten times their annual salaries, aligning with industry standards and rules of thumb. If implemented, we strongly believe these courses of action in this study will provide sufficient death benefits to all active duty servicemembers in the Department of Defense.

The purpose of this research is to assess the relationship between fraud penalties levied by the Department of Justice (DOJ) against defense contractors (firms) that commit fraud against the Department of Defense (DOD) and the effect of those penalties on future fraud recidivism. Using hand-collected historical data related to fraud committed against the DOD, we find a total of 511 fraud cases and $13.5 billion in fines between 1995 and 2018. An estimated regression model is used to analyze the relationship between fraud penalties and fraud occurrences. Multiple specifications of our model show little to no relationship between DOD- and DOJ-imposed fines and subsequent contractor fraud commission. Given the magnitude of resources deployed for setting and enforcing fines and penalties, the DOD should consider employing alternative tools to encourage compliance with procurement laws and discourage contractor fraud.

In this thesis, we examine whether the Navy should maintain its current scope of search and rescue (SAR) resource employment or consider alternative ways to conduct SAR missions. Station SAR services are critical enablers to the generation of naval aviation force readiness; however, use of a multi-mission combat helicopter may not be the most economical method to deliver those services, particularly when balanced with an increasing fleet demand. We analyzed existing fleet inventory, personnel, and operational demand data at Naval Air Station at Lemoore, CA. We considered several options to alleviate the demand placed on the inventory of helicopters within the squadron and developed three distinct courses of action: procuring different aircraft, changing the location for the base of operations, or maintaining the status quo. Our cost benefit analysis results show that procuring a different aircraft in order to make the MH-60S available for other missions is a rather costly option. While the status quo remains the most economical option for providing current SAR capabilities, to support efficient future SAR capabilities, we recommend relocating the base of operations to Salinas, CA.

The National Defense Strategy has directed the Department of Defense to reform its business processes. The Department of the Navy has reformed its funding model within Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) and is in the process of changing the funding model for Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC). NAVSEA converted naval shipyards from a working capital funding model to a mission funding model during fiscal years 1998 through 2007, while NAVFAC will complete its transition in fiscal year 2020. This research analyzes the complexities of the working capital funding model and mission funding model as they relate to the NAVSEA and NAVFAC transitions. The analysis illustrates the advantages and disadvantages of the transition to determine whether Marine Corps Logistics Command should follow suit and transition its Depot Maintenance Activity Group to a mission funding model.