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Despite the apparent usefulness of prosumers in the DH grid, there has not been a systematic investigation into why Sweden has not seen a general uptake in prosumer integration in the district heating (DH) sector. The transition to 4th generation district heating (4GDH) and smart energy system concepts are conducive to prosumer integration. Nonetheless, the integration of heat prosumers has been slow in Sweden. Our current study investigates the drivers and barriers for prosumer integration in the Swedish DH sector and looks at if and how rules, regulations and policies may affect the enabling of prosumer integration. The research questions posed in this study are: what are the drivers and barriers for prosumer integration in the DH sector in Sweden, and, what are the rules, regulations and policies that can affect the enabling of prosumer integration in the DH sector in Sweden. A directed Content Analysis of systematically selected scientific and industry-related literature is analyzed to investigate the drivers and barriers for prosumer integration in the Swedish DH sector. The drivers for prosumer integration can be broadly categorized as DH-side drivers, prosumer side drivers and macro-trend drivers. In terms of the DH-side, costs savings, more flexibility, increasing the environmental and commercial profile of the company and increasing the effective use of energy are the main drivers. Similarly, for the prosumers, it is additional income, increased self-sufficiency and raising the environmental profile which are the main drivers. In the barriers side, not up-to-date policies and regulations about the energy use and required energy efficiency for buildings, and conflicting regulations about accounting of energy use disincentivize prosumer integration in the Swedish DH sector. There are barriers on both the DH-side and prosumers’ side hindering the integration of prosumers in the DH sector. These barriers are also enhanced by ambiguous policies, which hinder the prosumer integration in the Swedish DH sector.

Energy transitions at the household level are important because there are so many households, and motives and barriers to these transitions processes are not well understood. The objective of this paper is to investigate explanatory variables of household energy transitions. We select papers investigating explanatory variables underpinning household energy transitions in three domains: adoption of solar photovoltaics (PV) in households, adoption/transition to sustainable residential heating systems (RHS) and adoption/transition to alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). In all three domains the chosen literature employ a wide variety of quantitative analyses such as discrete choice models ranging from multinomial logit models and principal component analysis to qualitative assessment of the answers through inductive analysis. The explanatory variables are categorized in six superordinate explanatory variable categories of economic factors, environmental factors, personal preferences and values, social factors, household characteristics and market and policy factors. In total we identify 31 explanatory variables which have been investigated in the 38 articles chosen, falling under the six categories. Investment cost is an important explanatory variable for all three domains, but a policy variable such as government subsidy could mitigate the former explanatory variable. We propose a conceptual framework as an initial step towards understanding the interactions and impacts of the explanatory variables with each other.

Local energy transition processes are complex socio-technical transitions requiring careful study. The use of System Dynamics (SD) in modelling and analyzing local energy transitions is especially suitable given the characteristics of SD. Our aim is to systematically categorize the different ways SD is used and useful to scrutinize local energy transitions, and to see if we can discern any common themes that can be useful to researchers looking to scrutinize local energy transitions, using SD. The study is exploratory in nature, with peer-reviewed journal and conference articles analyzed using content analysis. The six categories on which the articles are analyzed are: the sector the article studies; the transition that is studied in the article; the modelling depth in the article; the objective of the article; the justification for using SD provided in the article and the levels of interaction with 'local'. Our findings show most of the local energy transitions have been studied using simulatable Stock and Flow Diagrams in SD methodology. The important sectors in the energy field are represented in terms of SD modelling of local energy transitions, including electricity, transport, district heating etc. Most of the local energy transitions scrutinized by SD in the articles have descriptive objectives, with some prescriptive, and just one evaluative objective. In terms of justification for using SD provided by the articles analyzed in this study, we found four major themes along which the justifications that were provided. They are dynamics, feedbacks, delays and complexity, systematic thinking, bridging disciplines and actor interactions and behaviour. The 'dynamics, feedbacks, delays and complexity' theme is the most cited justification for the use of SD in scrutinizing local energy transitions, followed by systematic thinking.

The developing world is currently undergoing fast urbanization, and urban infrastructure systems built today are likely to influence global greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption patterns ...

The objective of the study is to assess the linkages between climate-related measures and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Ethiopia, Kenya and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) within t ...

The environmental aspects related to the energy sector are of importance in the emission-constrained world of present times. The objective of this study to assess the effects of Low Carbon Society (LCS) on the Thai and Sri Lankan power systems, in terms of CO 2 mitigation, and energy security and other techno-economic results, such as marginal abatement costs. This study models the power sectors using a bottom-up optimization model called AIM/Enduse. The crux of the analyses is carried out using scenarios. Along with the LCS scenario, this study also considers a LCS scenario without the availability of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and has two separate scenarios with emission taxes of 50 USD/t-CO 2 and 100 USD/t-CO 2 on the power generation. Results show that there is a cumulative mitigation of 1.4 Gt-CO 2 in the LCS scenario during 2010–2050, when compared to the BAU case for Thailand. Also, the effectiveness of the LCS scenario without CCS, known as the LCS/CCS scenario, is considerably reduced in the Thai power sector. The LCS scenario also has higher energy security, and better economic benefits. The LCS scenario in the Sri Lankan (SL) power sector has a cumulative mitigation of 166 Mt-CO 2 . The reduction in effectiveness of the LCS/CCS scenario in SL is not as drastic as the Thai power sector. The need of CCS for Sri Lanka is much reduced. The Marginal Abatement Costs (MAC) show that CCS technology plays a vital part in the Thai power sector and helps reduce the average abatement cost. This holds true in the case of the Sri Lankan power sector as well, yet not to the extent of the Thai case.

Energy security has become of importance to many countries that are facing the developmental challenge. In this regard, this paper analyses the effect of CO2 mitigation measures in the power sector on the energy security of three developing Asian countries, namely Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. This paper contends that energy security consists of three important themes, namely oil security, gas security, and sustainability. The energy systems of the three countries were modeled using an integer programming-based optimization model called “Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts” (MESSAGE), and the time frame of analyses was 2007–2030. Results show that there is significant increase in the sustainability of the energy systems due to CO2 mitigation measures in all three countries whilst oil security and to a lesser extent gas security were not significantly enhanced.

The adoption of electric vehicles (EV) is effectively a problem of socio-technical transitions and comes with its complexities. The Thai Energy Efficiency Development Plan includes the adoption of EV as a voluntary measure to increase the energy effectiveness of its transport sector and to mitigate GHG emissions. But, there are other important social, technological, economic and policy factors which need to be thoroughly investigated before the EV transition is attempted in Thailand, since the environmental cost may outweigh the benefits of the EV transition. The methodology used is based on systems thinking and called Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD). In CLD, the factors underpinning the benefits accruing from the EV transition in Thailand are characterized as causal relationships and feedback loops. Preliminary CLD investigation into the factors for EVs show the technological factor EV efficiency levels and their cost (economic factor) are important in determining the GHG reduction benefit, along with the grid emission factor.

Co-creation in the societal sphere is becoming important in many parts of the world. However, empirical analysis of co-creation in local energy transitions has been understudied. This paper aims to contribute to the field of local energy transitions by integrating a model-based approach with the municipal co-creation efforts in a local energy transition setting. The study uses a mixed-methods approach, with both quantitative and qualitative methods underpinning the approach. A System Dynamics (SD) model is built to analyse the feedback loops created by the co-creation efforts of the municipalities in Sk&aring, ne, Sweden to increase the uptake of household solar photovoltaics. Simultaneously, the model is conceptualized and built in coordination with the municipality actors, and qualitative validation provided by them. An iterative process is implemented, consisting of three steps: interaction with the municipality actors (MAs), developing the causal relationships between the model variables and model development. The suggestions and discussions with the MAs were very useful in understanding the social factors and processes which help in the diffusion of a technologically innovative product, such as solar PV. The MAs said that they found the explanation of the modelling variables useful in undertaking the co-creation efforts.

The energy sector of a country is the backbone in which a country's industrial competitiveness is built. It is imperative that a well-functioning energy sector is present to facilitate the growth of a country. That being said, the environmental wellbeing of the country and the entire world is important. The energetic analyses of the power, transport and industrial sectors of Sri Lanka are presented in this paper, along with possible Low Carbon scenarios (LCS). The Low Carbon scenarios are assessed for the CO 2 mitigation, energy consumption reduction and also for co-benefits such as energy security and productivity. The Sri Lankan energy sector is modeled using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model AIM/Enduse. Results show that Low Carbon activities in Sri Lanka increase energy security of the country. Mitigations of 41.3%, 25% and 37% are achieved in the most ambitious LCS, when compared to the business as usual (BAU) case in 2050, in the power, industry and transport sectors, respectively. Along with this, in all LCS, the diversity of the fuel share increases, while increasing the renewable fuel share. This also reduced the oil dependency of these sectors, thus reducing the cost burden of the Sri Lankan economy.

The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO2. All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well.

Energy is a commodity which impacts heavily upon the competitiveness of a country in the global scale. Thus, nations have begun to understand that utilization of energy affects its economic performance. In recent times, there has been a drive for global awareness on Low Carbon Society (LCS) measures, where carbon mitigation is at the forefront. Thus, this paper analyses the LCS measures for the Thai industrial sector. Thai industrial sector is the second highest CO 2 emitting end-use sector and contributes approximately 30% to the national income of Thailand. The total CO 2 emission from end use sectors in 2010 was 119 Mton-CO 2 and approximately 38% constituted industrial sector emissions. The primary objective of this research study is to quantitatively analyse the carbon mitigation possible in the Thai industrial sector and the co-benefits which accrue along with mitigation in various policy pathway scenarios. Thai industrial sector was modeled using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Enduse. Three groups of scenarios under LCS, emission tax and reduction target principles were modeled along with the BAU case. Results show that LCS scenarios are capable of cumulative mitigation of approximately 35% by 2050 in comparison to the BAU case and the predominant technologies are the 2nd generation biomass and the CCS technology. The emission tax scenarios, where tax rates of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 were enforced show a maximum of 55% cumulative mitigation by 2050. Even though this reduction is higher than the LCS scenarios, there is no shift to long term renewable or sustainable technologies in the emission tax scenarios. The same applies to reduction target scenarios as well. The co-benefits, which were measured along the themes of energy security and local air pollutant mitigation show maximum benefits accruing to the LCS scenarios, where renewable fuel share increases, whilst primary energy intensity and carbon intensity decreases. The LCS scenarios also show a mitigation of local air pollutants such as SO 2 and Particulate Matter.

Energy and energy security have become important to countries aiming to go on the path of sustainable development. In this regard this paper analyses the improvement of energy security which occurs as a result of energy efficiency (EE) improvements in the power sector. In this paper energy security is measured along three main themes which are oil security, gas security and sustainability. The energy systems of the selected countries, namely Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam are modeled using an integer programming based optimization model called “Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts” – MESSAGE. Each country is modeled with two scenarios namely the reference scenario which maintains the status quo at the start year and the EE scenario which models EE options in the demand side as supply side alternatives. The time horizon is 2007–2030, where 2007 is the base year and 2030 is the end year. The results are presented for oil security, gas security, sustainability, and also for co-benefits such as mitigation of CO2 emissions, reduction in conventional primary energy use and reduction of local air pollutants such as SO2 and NOx. Results show that energy efficiency in Sri Lanka significantly increases the energy security whilst also accruing co-benefits of CO2 mitigation, mitigation of local air pollution and reducing the conventional primary energy use. In the case of Thailand and Vietnam, energy security is enhanced in the earlier years (2007–2015), but in the longer term of modeling horizon (2020–2030) energy security of both the reference and EE scenarios converge indicating that in terms of long term energy security implementing energy efficiency measures alone would not enhance energy security.

Thai industry sector is the second highest CO 2 emitting end-use sector and contributes approximately 30% to the national income of Thailand. The total CO 2 emission from end use sectors in 2010 was 119 Mton-CO 2 and approximately 38% constituted industrial sector emissions. With the CO 2 emissions ballooning in the developing world, the pertinence of Low Carbon Scenario (LCS) and their co-benefits has increased. This research quantitatively analyses the CO 2 mitigation in the Thai industrial sector through counter-measures in LCS scenarios. Results show that with an ambitious LCS pathway predicted in LCS1 scenario, a cumulative mitigation of 34% from 2010 to 2050 is possible, whilst approximately 24% is possible from a circumspect approach, as in LCS2 scenario. Both the designed scenarios have positive impacts on energy security, where they increase the diversity of the system and increase the renewable fuel share and reduce the oil share. These scenarios also contribute to the mitigation of local air pollutants as well.

Energy plays a dominant role in determining the individual competitiveness of a country and this is more relevant to emerging economies. That being said, energy also plays an important and ever expanding role in carbon emissions and sustainability of the country. As a developing country Thailand’s industrial sector is vibrant and robust and consumes majority of the energy. In addition, it also has the highest CO2 emissions, provided the emissions of power generation are taken into account. Industry also accounts for the highest consumption of electricity in Thailand. The objective of this study is to model the Thai industrial energy sector and estimate the mitigation potential for the timeframe of 2010–2050 using the principles of Low Carbon Society (LCS). In addition, the paper would also evaluate emission tax as a key driver of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation along with Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis. Another secondary objective is to analyse the impact of mitigation on energy security of the industrial sector. The Thai industrial sector was modelled using AIM/Enduse model, which is a recursive dynamic optimisation model belonging to the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) family. Thai industrial sector was divided into nine sub-sectors based on national economic reporting procedures. Results suggest that the mitigation potential in 2050, compared to the Baseline scenario, is around 20% with positive impacts on energy security. The Baseline emission will approximately be 377 Mt-CO2 in the industrial sector. All four indicators of energy security, Primary Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Oil Share and Diversification of Fuel Share would exhibit enhanced energy security levels. The new Counter Measures (CM) proposed, such as, new and advanced technologies and fuel switching would drive the mitigation levels. Increase in energy efficiency of heating and electricity use would reduce the primary energy demand and intensity.