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This deliverable focuses on the final step of the overall SENTINEL stakeholder engagement strategy and aims to (a). present stakeholder feedback on the usefulness of the SENTINEL modelling results for the case studies regarding the improvement of stakeholders’ decision making as well as recommendations for improved integration of model components, and (b). produce a final set of results and lessons learnt after further model application within the case study framework. To meet these objectives, we applied a four-tier participatory multi-method approach consisting of stakeholder interactions in 10 events (workshops, conferences, focus groups, bilateral meetings, etc.), in which SENTINEL modelling teams and more than 90 stakeholders participated. One important lesson learnt from our work is that modellers need to put more effort into involving non-technical audiences in the energy modelling process by making sophisticated outputs more understandable to them. This can further enable the mainstreaming of energy system modelling, as stakeholders with no background in this area can also provide feedback on the relevance of modelling and their needs. We also find out that stakeholders with technical background pay close attention to how various models are integrated and how modelling outcomes compare to those of other models when using similar scenario specifications and assumptions. We observe that further research and modelling studies should aim at better capturing the effects of fossil-fuel price uncertainty and eliciting strategic choices about a quicker reduction in the reliance on fossil fuels, particularly Russian oil and gas. In addition, stakeholders are interested in learning how citizen-led energy transition pathways can be realised and consider that people-powered storylines should be further disseminated in energy scenario specifications. Finally, we find out that behavioural change is a critical challenge towards achieving the climate neutral goal., The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the EC. The authors would like to thank SENTINEL colleagues for their contributions to specific sections relevant to their models and modelling themes. The authors would also like to thank the stakeholders that participated to the stakeholder workshop in Athens, the online deep-dive sessions, the online SENTINEL final event, and other bilateral event/meetings. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessary reflect the views of the EC.

The European Commission (EC)-funded H2020 Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory (SENTINEL) project has applied a participatory approach including three steps: i. investigating how to adjust modelling tools based on modelling users' needs and test their applicability in three case studies at three different geographical scales: National (Greece), Regional (Nordic region) and Continental (Europe), ii. engaging experts representing various stakeholder groups to understand the key challenges to reaching climate neutrality and specify the most critical and policy-relevant contextual questions that energy system models should be able to respond to, and iii. involving stakeholders in the model application process to implement further modelling refinements based on their feedback. This report serves as a summary of the SENTINEL stakeholder workshop and captures our discussion and findings tackling the different dimensions of the energy transition in Europe with a focus on Greece. The workshop entitled “Pathways to climate neutrality in Europe with a spotlight on Greece: Challenges, uncertainties, solutions” took place as a physical workshop in Greece on the 30th of June 2022. The SENTINEL researchers presented key modelling results from the Continental and the National case studies and collected feedback on potential further model refinements and improvements required, the usefulness of the modelling insights and how to best disseminate them, as well as the identification of any further research questions that need to be answered by the SENTINEL modelling ensemble. Participants stated a variety of different critical issues and challenges related to the energy transition of the European and Greek energy systems. These insights also meant to further inform the research questions that had been identified in previous stakeholder engagement activities. Given the recent upheaval due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent energy crisis that coincides with our work, these questions could be (re)considered by the SENTINEL consortium to accurately capture current developments in Europe. Finally, discussions and inputs from stakeholders revealed meaningful viewpoints that could be incorporated in the further development of the SENTINEL modelling suite., The authors would like to thank all stakeholders for dedicating their time and providing us with important input during the workshop and all SENTINEL partners for their commitment in presenting their outcomes. The authors would, also, like to acknowledge the support from the European Commission. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessary reflect the views of the European Commission.

This report contributes to the modelling work in SENTINEL and beyond in three main ways. First, we provide three social storylines that are closely linked to different governance logics and build on observed social and political drivers and barriers in the European energy transition. This is different than most other storylines used for modelling, because ours are based on governance patterns and normative assumptions of a “good future”, and not on the more commonly used geopolitical or techno-economic storyline assumptions. Second, we provide quantitative, empirical data for several important social/political parameters that can be used together with the storylines or as separate building blocks to answer specific research questions with energy models. Third, to test the usefulness of QTDIAN, we have soft-linked QTDIAN with the energy demand models DESSTINEE, HEB and DREEM, the energy system design model Euro-Calliope, and indirectly with the economic model WEGDYN. Based on feedback from the modelling exercises, we have revised QTDIAN and publish now this updated report 2.0 to improve its usefulness for a more realistic analysis of potential future energy systems.

While energy system models are important tools supporting decision- and policymakers, they are often monolithic, and, therefore, not particularly versatile and not able to address all types of problems related to the energy transition. Although models have become more complex, it does not necessarily mean that they are better suited to answer the questions asked, and address the challenges faced by decision- and policymakers. To overcome the challenges and limitations of current modelling approaches within the SENTINEL project, we will apply and validate different updated models of the SENTINEL modelling suite in three case studies of different spatial scales. In this deliverable, we aim to (i). identify and specify policy-relevant scenarios, along with the respective energy targets, and qualitative narratives to base modelling simulations on, and (ii). identify contextual critical issues and challenges in energy system planning, and specific research questions, to which the SENTINEL models will attempt to provide answers, accounting for particularities of diverse spatial scales. The main research questions of our work are: “What scenarios should we apply in each of the SENTINEL case studies?” and “What are the main challenges and research questions by decision- and policymakers that the SENTINEL models should be able to answer?” The specifications for scenarios, narratives, and the extended list of research questions of this deliverable will inform further work within the SENTINEL project. More specifically, SENTINEL modellers will set up their models by using the scenarios and assumptions for the three case studies and will conduct model-based analysis attempting to provide answers to the comprehensive list of research questions identified in this report., The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the EC. The authors would like to thank SENTINEL colleagues for their contributions to specific sections relevant to their models and modelling themes. The authors would also like to thank the stakeholders that participated in the case study interview meetings, focus groups, and thematic workshops. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the EC.

Topic LC-SC3-CC-2-2018 of the Horizon 2020 work program: Modelling in support to the transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System in Europe Although energy models advance rapidly in termsof technical and techno-economic details, social and political aspects and environmental burdensbeyond greenhouse gas emissions are currently underrepresented. However, in light of the European Green Deal and the EU Energy Union Strategy, models must advance in terms of social and environmental considerations to support decision-and policymakers in adequately addressing that environmental burdenand to put "citizens at its core" of the energy transition. In this deliverable, we present key user-needs for environmentaland social aspects that need to be better represented in energy system models (Section 2), and how we have developed and adapted the modelling tools ENVIRO, QTDIAN, and ATOM in response to the identifieduserneeds. We showthree main userneeds regarding social aspects, specifically(i)social impacts on energy politics and policies, (ii) the social acceptance of energy technologiesand infrastructure, and (iii) consumers'behavior in energy models. We furthermore show that users consider relevant the following factors within the environmental aspects of energy scenarios: (iv) demandof raw materials/circularity, (v) the implications on nature and biodiversity, as well as (vi) full life-cycle impactsand externalization.ENVIRO and QTDIANare being developed within SENTINEL in a participatory process by engaging with stakeholdersin the information and development stagesof the model implementation. In contrast, ATOM is adapted by consideringuser-needs especially in the implementationstage. We conclude that we have benefited from the insights of model users and other stakeholders, and that this will allow us to make our modelling tools fit-for-purpose. All three modelling tools will support decision-makers by answering the most importantof the questions usershave risenwithin the SENTINEL stakeholder engagement process. Model-linking within the WP2 and other WPs will ensure that the understanding of environmental and social aspects is strengthened in energy system models and will be embedded in the overall SENTINEL platform.

In this report, we identify the needs of the energy model users and the users of energy model results in policy, industry, civil society, and science, both in the present and future. Based on a comprehensive literature review, qualitative interviews in five European jurisdictions, a survey, and a workshop, we identify what different user groups need from energy models: What types of questions, input, and results are useful to them? We also identify user needs regarding the modeling platform of SENTINEL: How do we need to define such a platform to make it worthwhile for potential users?

Achieving the EU’s commitment under the Paris Agreement, the Energy Union Strategy, and the European Green Deal, requires a significant transformation of current energy systems. Renewable energy is a major component of this transition, and thus, policymakers face the challenge of making decisions about new renewables-dominated energy systems. Because real world experimentation is in large scale not possible, models can serve as ‘laboratories’ by allowing policymakers to explore different decarbonisation options in a virtual world and generate a better understanding of the policy domain. While many energy policies are backed by computational models, we do not know exactly how and when policymakers use models, and to what extend policymakers influence modelling performed. We take these gaps as a starting point to empirically investigate the twofold processual interaction between computational energy modelling and energy policymaking.

This IASS study takes an in-depth look at Covid-19's impacts on the global energy sector, and then zooms in to the country level to see individual country effects and responses. The case studies are compiled by energy researchers in Argentina, China, Germany, India, Israel, and the United States.