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624 results on '"Sturm, Jan-Egbert"'

6. Can GDP measurement be further improved? Data revision and reconciliation

Author

Jacobs, Jan P. A. M., Sarferaz, Samad, Sturm, Jan-Egbert, and van Norden, Simon

Subjects
Economics - Econometrics
Abstract

Recent years have seen many attempts to combine expenditure-side estimates of U.S. real output (GDE) growth with income-side estimates (GDI) to improve estimates of real GDP growth. We show how to incorporate information from multiple releases of noisy data to provide more precise estimates while avoiding some of the identifying assumptions required in earlier work. This relies on a new insight: using multiple data releases allows us to distinguish news and noise measurement errors in situations where a single vintage does not. Our new measure, GDP++, fits the data better than GDP+, the GDP growth measure of Aruoba et al. (2016) published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadephia. Historical decompositions show that GDE releases are more informative than GDI, while the use of multiple data releases is particularly important in the quarters leading up to the Great Recession.

Published
2018

8. Revisiting the impact of corruption on income inequality worldwide.

Author

Hartwig, Jochen and Sturm, Jan‐Egbert

Subjects
*INCOME distribution, *CAPITAL stock, *INCOME inequality, *UNEMPLOYMENT statistics, *CORRUPTION
Abstract

The relationship between corruption and income inequality has been widely studied, but there is no consensus on whether corruption increases or reduces inequality. We conduct an extreme bounds analysis (EBA) to test the robustness of the explanatory variables proposed in the literature. Using a sample of up to 150 countries, with data mostly going back to 1980, we find that corruption does not appear to have a clear positive effect on inequality or may even reduce it. Also, contrary to what is sometimes suggested in the literature, the results do not support an inverted U‐shaped effect of corruption on income distribution. A more important role in explaining income distribution seems to be played by the level of financial development, the old‐age dependency ratio, the unemployment rate, the capital stock to GDP ratio and the population growth rate. These are often found to be significant drivers of inequality, regardless of the set of control variables and the definition of corruption used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2025
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23. Staatseingriffe: Ja und nein.

Author

Baselgia, Enea and Sturm, Jan-Egbert

Subjects
FINANCIAL crises, EQUALITY, PUBLIC debts, PUBLIC spending, UNEMPLOYMENT insurance, FISCAL policy
Abstract

Copyright of Volkswirtschaft is the property of State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Published
2024

30. Do geopolitical interests affect how financial markets react to IMF programs?

Author

Andresen, Lena Lee and Sturm, Jan-Egbert

Abstract

We study the effect of geopolitics on short-term financial market reactions to IMF program approvals. If IMF programs are influenced by geopolitics, they may be less successful in stabilizing the economy. This could lead financial market participants to sell the country's assets and thus reduce the catalytic effect of IMF programs. Using a monthly panel data set for about 100 IMF members covering 1993-2019, we find that if geopolitics are involved, the approval of a new IMF program increases risk aversion of financial market participants. To measure geopolitical interest, we focus on program approvals for temporary members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). We find that temporary UNSC members receiving an IMF program face higher bond and bill yields, depreciating exchange rates, and weaker stock market developments. This is consistent with investors reducing exposure to the country's financial assets. Such a negative investor reaction is not observed for IMF program approvals for non-UNSC temporary members. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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33. Konjunkturanalyse: Prognose 2023 / 2024. Milder Winter dämpft Rezessionsängste

Author

Sturm, Jan-Egbert, Abberger, Klaus, Abrahamsen, Yngve, Anderes, Marc, Daniele, Maurizio, Graff, Michael, Kronenberg, Philipp, Martínez, Isabel Z., Mikosch, Heiner, Mühlebach, Nina, Reinicke, Tim, Sarferaz, Samad, Seiler, Pascal, Siegenthaler, Michael, Siegrist, Stefanie, and Streicher, Sina

Subjects
business cycle, Switzerland, macroeconomic forecast
Abstract

Der vorliegende Beitrag dokumentiert die Ergebnisse der Frühjahrsprognose 2023 der Konjunkturforschungsstelle der ETH Zürich vom 21. März 2023. Zuerst werden die jüngsten Wirtschaftsentwicklungen in der Schweiz und im Ausland diskutiert. Danach folgen die zentralen Prognoseergebnisse für die verschiedenen Wirtschaftsbereiche der Schweiz, aufgeteilt nach den wichtigsten verwendungsseitigen Komponenten des Bruttoinlandprodukts (BIP). Zuletzt folgt ein ausführlicher Datenanhang., This text summarises the 2023 spring forecast of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich, released on 21 March 2023. We first discuss recent economic developments in Switzerland and abroad. We then present the main forecast results in the various sectors of the economy, decomposed into the main demand components of gross domestic product. The closing section consists of a comprehensive data appendix., KOF Analysen, 2023 (1)

Published
2023

38. Konjunkturanalyse: Prognose 2023 / 2024. Starke Beschäftigung trifft auf stockende Wirtschaft

Author

Sturm, Jan-Egbert, Abberger, Klaus, Anderes, Marc, Daniele, Maurizio, Domjahn, Thomas, Graf, Michael, Kronenberg, Philipp, Martínez, Isabel Z., Mikosch, Heiner, Mühlebach, Nina, Perakis, Alexis, Reinicke, Tim, Sarferaz, Samad, Seiler, Pascal, Siegenthaler, Michael, Siegrist, Stefanie, and Streicher, Sina

Subjects
business cycle, Switzerland, macroeconomic forecast
Abstract

Der vorliegende Text dokumentiert die Ergebnisse der Konjunkturprognose 2023 der Konjunkturforschungsstelle der ETH Zürich vom 15. Juni 2023. Im zweiten Kapitel folgen die wichtigsten Prognoseergebnisse für die verschiedenen Wirtschaftsbereiche, unter anderem für die bedeutendsten verwendungsseitigen Komponenten des Bruttoinlandprodukts. Das dritte Kapitel erörtert die wichtigsten Prognoseergebnisse für die Weltwirtschaft. Zuletzt folgt ein ausführlicher Datenanhang., This text summarises the 2023 economic forecast of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich, released on 15 June 2023. The first chapter discusses recent economic developments in Switzerland. The second presents the main forecast results across the various sectors of the economy, among others the main demand components of GDP. The third chapter discusses the most important forecast results for the international economy. The closing section consists of a comprehensive data appendix., KOF Analysen, 2023 (2)

Published
2023
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41. KOF Analysen 2022, Nr. 3, Herbst

Author

Sturm, Jan-Egbert, Abrahamsen, Yngve, Abberger, Klaus, Anderes, Marc, Daniele, Maurizio, Graff, Michael, Kronenberg, Philipp, Mikosch, Heiner, Mühlebach, Nina, Rathke, Alexander, Reinicke, Tim, Sarferaz, Samad, Seiler, Pascal, Siegenthaler, Michael, Siegrist, Stefanie, Streicher, Sina, and Dibiasi, Andreas

Abstract

KOF Analysen, 2022(3)

Published
2022

42. SCHWEIZER WIRTSCHAFT IM SOG DER INTERNATIONALEN KONJUNKTURSCHWÄCHE.

Author

Abberger, Klaus, Abrahamsen, Yngve, Anderes, Marc, Daniele, Maurizio, Domjahn, Thomas, Graff, Michael, Kronenberg, Philipp, Martínez, Isabel, Mikosch, Heiner, Mühlebach, Nina, Perakis, Alexis, Rathke, Alexander, Reinicke, Tim, Sarferaz, Samad, Scherer, Merlin, Seiler, Pascal, Siegenthaler, Michael, Siegrist, Stefanie, Streicher, Sina, and Sturm, Jan-Egbert

Subjects
ECONOMIC forecasting, BUSINESS cycles, GROSS domestic product, FORECASTING, WINTER
Abstract

Copyright of KOF Analysen is the property of ETH Zurich and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Published
2023

44. Prognose der Kostenentwicklung in der obligatorischen Krankenpflegeversicherung (OKP): Für die Jahre 2022 und 2023

Author

Anderes, Marc and Sturm, Jan-Egbert

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie diskutiert die Prognoseergebnisse für die Kostenentwicklung im Bereich der obligatorischen Kranken- und Pflegeversicherung (OKP). Innerhalb der deskriptiven Diskussion der Datenlage werden für die Kostengruppen wie auch die Kantone die letztjährigen Wachstumsraten mit den langjährigen Durchschnitten verglichen. Dabei wird ersichtlich, dass die meisten Kantone und grossen Kostengruppen im letzten Jahr überdurchschnittlich stark gewachsen sind. Grund dafür ist der Basiseffekt, also der Vergleich mit dem aufgrund der Pandemie schwachen Jahr 2020. In den kommenden zwei Jahren ist mit einer Beruhigung der Kostenentwicklung mit Wachstumsraten nahe am langfristigen Durchschnitt zu rechnen. Die Punktschätzer des gesamtschweizerischen pro Kopf OKP-Kostenwachstums betragen dementsprechend 2.1 Prozent für das Jahr 2022 und 3 Prozent für 2023., KOF Studies, 170

Published
2022

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